Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music From ChatGPT-written speeches to constituents flooding MPs with AI-generated emails, artificial intelligence has arrived in Westminster. In this episode of Westminster Insider, host Patrick Baker explores how politicians and ministers are scrambling to respond, balancing fears about deepfakes, bias and online harms with a determination to harness AI for economic growth. The UK’s first AI minister, Kanishka Narayan, says he believes that an artificial intelligence more capable than humans (so-called AGI) could arrive in five years’ time, and explains how he is trying to balance the risks of AI with its economic potential. Labour MP Mike Reader, dubbed the “ChatG-MP” after being spotted using the model to respond to constituents on a train, describes how AI is changing the day-to-day work of politicians. Conservative MP Luke Evans reflects on delivering the first AI-generated speech in the House of Commons. Labour MP Dawn Butler, who served on Parliament’s Science and Technology Committee, sets out her concerns about AI perpetuating racial discrimination and why she believes it must be tightly controlled. POLITICO’s Tech Editor Isobel Hamilton traces the twists and turns of the UK’s AI policy, including the influence of a pivotal meeting between the Prime Minister and a leading tech CEO. And Andrea Miotti, CEO of Control AI, explains why he believes urgent action is needed to guard against the existential risks posed by increasingly powerful systems.

BRITAIN’S LABOUR PARTY STARES INTO THE ABYSS IN ITS WELSH HEARTLAND In the old coalfields of south Wales, Britain’s center-left establishment faces being crushed by a nationalist left and populist right. POLITICO went to find out why. By DAN BLOOM and SASCHA O’SULLIVAN in Newport, South Wales Photo-Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister, stood in a sunbeam at Newport’s Victorian market and declared: “Wales is ready for a new chapter.” Many voters agree. The problem for Morgan is: few think she’ll be the one to write it. This nation of 3 million people, with its coalfields, docks, mountains and farms, is the deepest heartland of Morgan’s center-left Labour Party. Labour has topped every U.K. general election here for 104 years and presided over the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, since establishing it 27 years ago. Yet Senedd elections on May 7 threaten not only to end this world-record winning streak, but leave Welsh Labour fighting for a reason to exist. One YouGov poll in January put the party joint-fourth with the Conservatives on 10 percent, behind Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 37 percent, Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK on 23 percent and the Greens on 13 percent. Other polls are less dramatic (one last week had Reform and Plaid equal, and Labour a closer third), but the mood remains stark.  The most common projection for the 96-seat Senedd is a Plaid minority government propped up by Labour — blowing a hole in Labour’s status as the default governing party and safe vote to stop the right, and echoing recent by-elections in Caerphilly (won by Plaid) and Manchester (won by Greens). POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform. | Dan Bloom/POLITICO It would raise the simple question, said a senior Welsh Labour official granted anonymity to speak frankly: “What is the point in this party?’” POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across Labour, Plaid and Reform, including interviews with all three of their Welsh leaders, for this piece and an episode of the Westminster Insider podcast. The conversations painted a vivid picture of a center-left establishment fighting for survival in an election that could echo far beyond Wales. While in the 1980s Welsh Labour could unite voters against Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives, now it is battling demographic changes, a decline in unionized heavy industry and an anti-incumbent backlash. All have killed old loyalties and habits. Squeezed by Plaid and Greens to their left and Reform to their right, some in Labour see parallels with other mainstream postwar parties facing a reckoning across Europe. This week, Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats lost to the Greens in the car production region of Baden-Württemberg; the latter barely scraped 5 percent. In the recent Manchester by-election, the Conservatives lost their deposit. Welsh Labour MPs fear a reckoning. One said: “We will have to start again. We rebuild. We figure out, what does Welsh Labour mean in 2026? What do we stand for?” NEW CHAPTER, SAME AUTHOR It takes Morgan 20 minutes to walk the 500 meters from Newport Market to our interview. Some passers-by flag her down; others she ambushes. We pass a baked goods shop (“Ooh, Gregg’s! That’s what I want!”) and Morgan emerges with a latte, though not with one of the chain’s famous sausage rolls. She introduces herself to one woman as “Eluned Morgan, first minister of Wales.” Her target looks vaguely bemused.  After the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. “I didn’t have a mandate really, because I was just kind of thrown in,” she tells POLITICO midway up the high street. “I thought, right, I need a program, so I went out on the streets and took my program directly from the public without any filter.”  She is selling a nuts-and-bolts offer of new railway stations, a £2 bus fare cap and same-day mental health care. Morgan casts herself as the experienced option to beat what she calls the “separatists” of Plaid and the “concerning” rise of populism. She means Reform, which wants to scrap net zero targets and cut 580 Welsh civil service jobs. Yet paradoxically, she also paints herself as a vessel for change. “[People] want to see change faster,” she said in John Frost Square, named after the leader of an 1839 uprising that demanded voting rights for all men. She wants to show “delivery” and “hope.” Dimitri Batrouni, Newport Council’s Labour leader, suggested an Amazonification of politics is under way. “Our lives commercially are instant,” he said. “I want something, I order it, it’s delivered to my house … people quite naturally want that in their governments.” But after 27 years, many voters are rolling the dice on delivery elsewhere. Welsh Labour is promising to end homelessness by 2034, but previously made the same pledge by 2026. Around 6,900 people are still waiting two years or more for NHS treatment (though this figure was 10 times higher during the Covid-19 pandemic). Education rankings slumped in 2023. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” ‘SHIT, WELL, HE DIDN’T CALL ME’ Much of this anger is pointed at Westminster — which is why Labour has long tried to show a more socialist face to Wales.  It was the seat of Labour co-founder Keir Hardie as well as of Nye Bevan, who launched Britain’s National Health Service in 1948. “Welsh Labour” was born out of the first Senedd-style elections in 1999, when Plaid surged in south Wales heartlands while Tony Blair’s New Labour appealed to the middle classes. For years, this deliberate rebranding worked; Labour pulled through with the most seats even when the Tories ruled Westminster. Yet in 2024, the party boasted of “two Labour governments at both ends of the M4” — in London and in Cardiff — working in harmony. The emphasis soon flipped back when things went wrong in No. 10; Morgan promised a “red Welsh way” last May. She is “trying to find our identity again,” said the MP quoted above. Morgan appeared to disown the “both ends of the M4” approach, while declining to call it a mistake. “Look, that was a decision before I became first minister,” she said. A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’ Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images She tries to be playful in distancing herself from Keir Starmer. “He came down a couple of weeks ago and I was very clear with him, if you’re coming you need to bring something with you. Fair play, he brought £14 billion of investment,” she said. “If he wants to come again, he’ll have to bring me more money.” But she has also hitched herself to Starmer for now — unlike Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, who has called for the PM to go. As we sat down, Morgan professed surprise at news that Sarwar called several Cabinet ministers beforehand. “Did he! Shit, well, he didn’t call me,” she said. “Look at the state of the world at the moment; actually what we need is stability,” she added. “We need the grown-ups in the room to be in charge, and I do think Keir Starmer is a grown-up.” ‘ELUNED WASN’T HAPPY’ Morgan has mounted a fightback since Plaid won October’s Caerphilly by-election.  She has hired Matt Greenough, a strategist who worked on London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s re-election campaign last year, said three people with knowledge of the appointment. One of the people said: “During Caerphilly, it became quite clear there were a lot of problems. Eluned wasn’t happy with Welsh Labour or the way the campaign was running. She did a lot of lobbying and got the Welsh executive to basically give her complete power over the campaign.” Morgan “was angry that the central party [in London] took control of the Caerphilly by-election,” another of the people added. (A Morgan ally disputed this reading of events, saying she would always take a bigger role as the election drew near, and that a wide range of Labour figures are involved in the campaign committee such as a Westminster MP, Torsten Bell.) Morgan also has more support these days from Labour’s MPs — who pushed last year for her to focus less on Plaid and more on Reform. That lobbying may have been a mistake, the MP quoted above admits now. “We were quite naive in thinking that the progressives would back us,” this MP said. Privately, Labour politicians and officials in Wales say the mood and prospects are better than the start of 2026. Though asked if Labour would win the most seats in the Senedd, Batrouni said: “Let’s look and see. It’s not looking good in the polls but … politics changes so quickly.” IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT KEIR STARMER The harsh reality is that Labour’s base in Wales began slipping long before Starmer, rooted in deindustrialization since the 1970s and 80s. Newport, near England on the M4 corridor, has a measure of prosperity that other parts of Wales do not. The 137-year-old market has had a makeover, Microsoft is building data centers and U.S. giant Vishay runs Britain’s biggest semiconductor plant. Here Labour is mostly expecting a fight between itself and Reform. At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel Farage.” | Jon Rowley/Getty Images Wales’ west coast and north west are more Plaid-dominated, with more Welsh speakers and independence supporters. But support for nationalists is spreading in the southern valleys. “All across the valleys you’re seeing places where Labour has dominated for 100 years plus but is now in deep, deep crisis,” said Richard Wyn Jones, professor of Welsh politics at Cardiff University. “It has long been the case that a lot of Labour supporters have had a very positive view of Plaid Cymru — they just didn’t have a reason to vote for them until now.” Wyn Jones attributes the change to trends across northern Europe, where traditional left-wing parties have been “unmoored” from working-class occupations. A growing service sector has brought more white-collar voters with socially liberal values. Carmen Smith, a 29-year-old Plaid campaigner who is the House of Lords’ youngest-ever peer, said Brexit had unhitched young, left-leaning voters from the idea of British patriotism: “There are a lot more young people identifying as Welsh rather than British.”  And after the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame when things go wrong.  All the while, a left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. At the Tumble Inn, a Wetherspoons chain pub in the valley town of Pontypridd, retired gas engineer Paul Jones remembered: “You could leave one job, walk a couple of hundred yards and start another job … it was a totally different world. I wish we could get it back, but I don’t think it’s going to happen.” He hasn’t voted for years but plans to back Reform. THEY’VE BLOWN UP THE MAP All these changes will be turbocharged by a new electoral map. A previous Labour first minister, Mark Drakeford, introduced a more proportional voting system which will see voters elect six Senedd members in each of 16 super-constituencies. The results will reflect the mood better than U.K. general elections (Labour won 84 percent of Wales’ seats on a 37 percent vote share in 2024), but create a volatile outcome. In the mega-constituency for eastern Cardiff, Wyn Jones believes the six seats could be won by six parties: Labour, Plaid, Reform, the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Ironically, said the Labour MP quoted above, Welsh Labour is now polling so badly that it could actually win more seats under the new system than the old one. Trying to win the sixth seat in each super-constituency will hoover up many resources. The size of each patch changes how parties campaign, said Plaid’s Westminster leader Liz Savile Roberts: “We’ve had to go to places that I’ve never been to.” And the scale means activists have a weaker connection to the candidates they campaign for — compounded in Labour by many Senedd members stepping down. Just six people turned up to one recent Labour door-knocking session in a heartland seat. A left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to Reform UK. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images After May 8, the new system will make coalitions or informal support deals more necessary to command a Senedd majority. Morgan declined to say if she would support Plaid’s £400 million-a-year offer to expand free childcare (which Labour says is unfunded), rather than see it voted down. “I’m certainly not getting into hypotheticals,” she said. “I’m in this to win it.”  Her rivals have other ideas. THE PRESIDENT IS COMING On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” The former BBC presenter, who took over Plaid’s leadership in 2023, strained not to make his February conference look like a premature victory lap. Members could’ve been fooled. They struggled to find parking. There were more lobbyists; more journalists. It is a slow burn for a party founded in 1925, which won its first Westminster seat in 1966. Ap Iorwerth ramped up the anti-establishment rhetoric in his conference speech while Lindsay Whittle, who won Caerphilly for Plaid in October’s by-election, bellowed: “Rich men from London, we are waiting for you!” Yet he insists his success is more than a protest vote, a trend sweeping Europe or a mirror of Reform’s populism. “I’d like to think that we’re doing something different,” Ap Iorwerth told POLITICO. While Morgan accuses him of “separatism,” he said: “We have a growing sense of Welsh nationhood and Welsh identity, at a time when there’s deep disillusionment in the old guard of U.K. politics and a sense of needing to keep at bay that populist right wing.” Ap Iorwerth said there is a “very real danger” that Labour vanishes entirely as a serious force in the Senedd. “The level of support that they have collapsed to is a level that most people, probably myself included, could never have imagined would happen so quickly,” he said. INDEPENDENCE DAY? But Plaid faces three big challenges to hold this pole position. The first is its ground game, stretched thin to cover the new world of mega-seats. On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words: “New leadership for Wales.” | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The second is to remain distinct from Labour and the insurgent Greens while running a broad left-leaning platform focused on energy costs, childcare and the NHS. The third is to convince unionist voters that Plaid is not simply a Trojan horse for Welsh independence. Independence is Plaid’s core belief, yet Ap Iorwerth did not mention the word once in his speech, instead promising a “standing commission” to look at Wales’ future. He told POLITICO he would rather have a “sustained, engaging, deep discussion … than try to crash, bang, wallop, towards the line.”  But opponents suggest Plaid will push hard for independence if they win a second term in 2030 — like the Scottish National Party did after topping elections in 2007 then 2011. One conference attendee, Emyr Gruffydd, 36, a member for 19 years, said independence “is going to be part of our agenda in the future, definitely. But I think nation-building has to be the approach that we take in the first term.” Savile Roberts accepted that shelving talk of independence (which is still supported by less than half the Welsh population) is part of a deliberate strategy to broaden the party’s reach and keep a wide left-leaning appeal. “I mean, we know the people that we need to appeal to — it is the disenchanted Labour voters,” she said. For some shoppers in Newport — not Plaid’s home turf — it may be working. One ex-Labour voter, Rose Halford, said of Plaid: “All they want to do is make everybody speak Welsh.” But she’ll consider backing them: “They’re showing a bit more gumption, aren’t they?” TAXING QUESTIONS FOR PLAID If Plaid does win, that’s when the hard part begins. Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. And Plaid has vowed not to hike income tax, one of the few (blunt) tax instruments available to the Welsh government. Strategists looked at the issue before and feared it would prompt taxpayers to flee over the border to England. So Plaid promises vague financial “efficiencies” in areas such as child poverty, where spending exceeded £7 billion since 2022, and health. Whittle said: “There’s an awful lot of people pen-pushing in the health service. We don’t need pen-pushers.” Labour’s attack machine argues that Plaid and Reform UK alike would cut services. Ap Iorwerth insists his and Farage’s promises are different: “We’re talking about being effective and efficient.” But he admitted: “You don’t know the detail until you come into government.”  Ap Iorwerth jettisoned any suggestion that Plaid would introduce universal basic income, saying it is “not a pledge for government.” He added: “It’s something that I believe in as a principle. I don’t think we’re in a place where we have anything like a model that could be put in place now.” Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images The blame game between Cardiff and Westminster will run hot. Ap Iorwerth voiced outrage this week at a leaked memo from Starmer in December, ordering his Cabinet to deliver directly in Wales and Scotland “even when devolved governments may oppose this.” FARAGE’S WELSH SURGE And then there’s Reform. Farage’s party has rocketed in the polls since 2024; typical branch meetings have swelled from a dozen members to several dozen. Since February, Reform has even had its own leader for Wales — Dan Thomas, a former Tory councillor in London who says he recently moved back to the area of Blackwood, in the south Wales valleys. Some party figures have observed a dip after the Caerphilly by-election, where Reform came second. Thomas insists: “I don’t think we’ve plateaued” — and even said there is room to increase a 31 percent vote share from one (optimistic) poll. “There’s still a Labour vote to squeeze,” he told POLITICO.  “We’re targeting all of Wales.” It is a measure of Plaid’s success that Reform UK often now presents the nationalist party as its main competition. “It’s a two-horse race [with Plaid], that’s what I say on the doors,” said Leanne Dyke, a Reform canvasser who was drinking in the Pontypridd Wetherspoons. James Evans, who is now one of Reform’s two Senedd members after he was thrown out of the Conservative group in January on suspicion of defection talks, argues his supporters are underrepresented in polling because they are “smeared” as bigots. Evans added: “Very similarly to what happened in America when Donald Trump was elected, I think there is a quiet majority of people out there who do not want to say they’re voting Reform, who will vote Reform.”  Reform has its own custom-built member app, ReformGo, as it canvasses data on where its supporters live for the first time. It sent a mass appeal by post to all registered Welsh voters in late 2025 (before spending limits kicked in). Welsh campaign director David Thomas is recruiting a brand new slate of 96 candidates, booking hotels for training days with interviews, written exercises and team-building. Daytime TV presenter Jeremy Kyle has helped with media training. English officials cross the border to help; Reform still only has three paid officials in Wales. FARAGE HAS AN NHS PROBLEM Lian Walker, a postal worker from the village of Pen-y-graig, would be a prime target for Reform. “There’s people who I see on the databases, they don’t work,” she said in Pontpridd’s Patriot pub, “but they get everything; new windows, earrings, T-shirts, shorts.” She supports Reform’s plans to deport migrants. But on the NHS, she says of Reform: “They want it to go private like America.” Labour and Plaid drive this attack line relentlessly. The full picture is more nuanced — but still exposes a tension between Farage and Thomas. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. | Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images While Reform emphasizes it would keep the NHS free at the point of use, Farage has not ruled out shifting its funding from general taxation to a French-style insurance model, saying that would be “a national decision ahead of a general election.” Thomas, however, broke from this stance. He told POLITICO: “No, no. We rule out any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization.” He added: “Nigel’s also said that devolved issues are down to the Welsh party, and I wouldn’t consider any kind of insurance-based or private-based system for the Welsh NHS.” Labour and Plaid are relying on an anti-Reform vote to keep Farage’s party out of power. Opponents have also highlighted the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s former Welsh leader, for taking bribes to give pro-Russia interviews and speeches. But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. In Evans’ sprawling rural seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, two people with knowledge of the Conservative association said its membership had fallen catastrophically from a recent peak of around 400. On the other hand, the sheer number of defections makes Reform look more like a copycat Conservative Party. A former Tory staffer works for Evans; Thomas’ press officer is the Welsh Conservatives’ former media chief. Evans said last year that 99 percent of Reform’s policies were “populist rubbish,” but was allowed to see the policy platform in secret before he agreed to join (and has since contributed to it). While the long-time former UKIP and Brexit Party politician Mark Reckless led a policy consultation in the first half of 2025, former Conservative Welsh Secretary David Jones — who defected without fanfare last year — played a hands-on role behind the scenes working up manifesto policies, two people with knowledge of his work said. THE NIGEL SHOW Then there is Reform’s reliance on Farage himself.  The party deliberately left it late before unveiling a Welsh leader, said a Reform figure in Wales, and chose in Thomas a Welsh figure who would not “detract from Nigel’s overall umbrella and brand.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. Thomas said: “Ultimately, it’s my decision to sign off the manifesto. Of course, Nigel was consulted because he’s our U.K. leader, and we want to ensure that what’s going on in Wales is aligned to the broader picture in the UK.” Reform’s Welsh manifesto promises to cut a penny off every band of income tax by 2030, end Wales’ “nation of sanctuary” plan to support asylum seekers, scrap 20mph road speed limits and upgrade the M4 and A55 highways. But costings have not been published yet — Reform has sent them to be assessed by the Institute for Fiscal studies, a nonpartisan think tank — and like other parties, Reform faces questions about how it will all be paid for. Asked if Reform would begin work on the M4 and A55 upgrades by 2030, Thomas replied: “We’d like to. But we all know in this country, infrastructure projects take a long time.” While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans, including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia Yusuf. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images ‘I’VE GOT TO FOCUS ON WHAT I CAN CONTROL’ These harsh realities facing Wales’ would-be rulers are a silver lining for Labour. Morgan avoided POLITICO’s question about whether she believes the polls — “I’ve got to focus on what I can control” — but insisted many voters remain persuadable. “People will scratch the surface and say [our rivals] are not ready,” she said. Alun Michael, who led the first Welsh Labour administration in 1999, said the idea that the Labour vote has “collapsed completely” is wrong. “It’s always dangerous to go on opinion polls as a decider of what will happen in an election,” he said. Whoever does win will deserve a moment of levity. If Ap Iorwerth wins the most seats on May 7, he will drink an Aperol spritz; Thomas will have a glass of Penderyn Welsh whisky.  As for Morgan? She would like a cup of tea — milk, no sugar. Perhaps survival would be sweet enough.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music In May, Labour faces losing some of its oldest heartlands. In Wales, the party has dominated elections for 104 years, but is, according to polls, fighting for third or fourth place against powerful forces on the left and right — Plaid Cymru and Reform. Host Sascha O’Sullivan and POLITICO’s political editor Dan Bloom took the train to Newport and drove through South Wales, where the fight is fiercest, to find out how the parties are vying for the top spot in the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament. They spoke to first minister Eluned Morgan as she launched the Welsh Labour campaign in Newport Market. And newly-appointed Welsh leader of Reform Dan Thomas explained why the party there differs from the one led by Nigel Farage. Westminster Insider speaks to Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth about how the party has ditched their message on independence in a bid to scoop up voters on the left disillusioned with Labour.

Reform UK’s Welsh leader has ruled out moving to an insurance-based healthcare system, despite the party’s U.K.-wide boss Nigel Farage keeping the idea on the table. Dan Thomas, who took charge of Farage’s populist right-wing party in Wales last month, said he would not consider “any kind of insurance-based” reform to Britain’s National Health Service (NHS). Thomas spoke to POLITICO for a special feature and Westminster Insider podcast on the battle for the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, on May 7. Both will be released on Friday. His position differs from that of Farage, who leads the insurgent party across the U.K. It is an early sign of the challenge that faces Farage — who has long had a presidential-like hold on his parties — in reconciling the messaging from Reform’s growing network of office-holders. While a Reform spokesperson told POLITICO it would keep the NHS free at the point of use for British citizens, Farage has not ruled out other reforms, such as moving funding of the NHS from general taxation to an insurance system. Asked at the party’s Welsh manifesto launch on Mar. 5 if he would be prepared to look at reforms such as a French-style insurance system (in which citizens have mandatory insurance and pay through social security contributions), Farage said: “That would be a national decision ahead of a general election.”  He added: “On the big U.K. picture of health, I’m prepared to consider any alternative to the failure we’ve got now … as for devolved powers, I’ll let Dan speak to that.” Thomas later said he would not support moving to an insurance-based system in Wales. “No, no,” he said in an interview. “We rule out any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization.  “It will be free at the point of use. That’s what the public in Wales wants, and that’s what we will deliver.”  Asked if he disagreed with Farage’s remarks on an insurance model, Thomas replied: “Look, Nigel’s also said that devolved issues are down to the Welsh party, and I wouldn’t consider any kind of insurance-based or private-based system for the Welsh NHS.  “I think we can improve the NHS in Wales within the existing £14 billion budget, and it just takes focus. We [also] need more ministerial authority and intervention when services aren’t delivering.” A WELSH TEST Polls predict Reform (as well as Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru) will surge ahead of the Labour incumbents in elections to the Senedd on May 7. “We rule out any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization,” said Dan Thomas. | Jon Rowly/Getty Images The future of the NHS is a key attack line in the campaign for the center-left Labour and left-wing Plaid Cymru, who accuse Reform of flirting with privatization. Reform said in its 2024 general election manifesto that NHS services “will always be free at the point of use,” though not for foreign citizens. In November, the party announced plans to raise the existing “health surcharge” for visa applicants from £1,035 to £2,718 per year. A Reform UK spokesperson said Wednesday: “We will always keep the NHS free at the point of use for British citizens.” The comments from Thomas and Farage appear to raise the prospect that Reform UK could consider one funding model for England and another for Wales. Mark Dayan, a policy analyst at the Nuffield Trust, a nonpartisan health think tank, said this would technically be possible, but changing the model at any level would be a major upheaval. “It would certainly be possible for Wales and England to have different approaches to coverage and user charges, because health is already a devolved issue,” Dayan said. “Wales already has some separate user charging policies around prescriptions, for example. “The taxation side of it will be really complicated … you’d be taking a lot of money out of some taxes and piling it into payroll taxes to make it social insurance. So you’d have to rewire things quite a bit, and some of that would probably require you to redesign how money goes from Westminster to the other U.K. countries, whether or not they had social insurance as well.”

The Palace of Westminster towers over the River Thames as a symbol of British democracy. But look a little closer and the building is falling apart. From fire risks and asbestos to crumbling stonework and miles of aging wiring, experts warn the U.K. Parliament is becoming an increasingly dangerous place to work for MPs, peers and staff. The Restoration and Renewal Programme has spent years trying to work out how to fix it. But now, the politics of repairing Parliament may be even more complicated than the engineering. In this week’s Westminster Insider, Patrick Baker takes a tour of the building’s crumbling infrastructure and hears from the people battling over what to do next.  Restoration expert Alexandra Meakin sets out the risks of continued delay. Liberal Democrat MP Marie Goldman argues MPs should temporarily move out to allow the work to be done. Conservative MP and Father of the House Edward Leigh dismisses the plans as over-engineered “gold-plating”. And former minister Ed Vaizey wonders whether Parliament should move out altogether. Finally, POLITICO’s Ottawa bureau chief Nick Taylor-Vaisey explains how Canada tackled the same problem — and what Westminster might learn.

LONDON — The Palace of Westminster stands on the banks of the River Thames as a proud symbol of British democracy.  But upon closer inspection, this neo-gothic mini-village, part of a UNESCO World Heritage site, is falling apart. Britain’s parliament has become an increasingly dangerous place to work for the 650 MPs, more than 800 members of the House of Lords, and thousands more staff who use it. The Restoration and Renewal (R&R) program, set up to deliver the long-delayed overhaul of the palace, warns of serious risks from fire, flooding, crumbling stonework and aging mechanical and electrical systems. Parliament needs fixing — and in the coming weeks, MPs and peers are expected to vote on what to do next. But there’s little consensus on how to proceed. The fight over the future of the site is now pitting politicians worried about spiraling costs against those who think the need to act is growing more urgent by the day. As this week’s POLITICO Westminster Insider podcast explores, fixing parliament is a story of seemingly endless division and delay. TWO OPTIONS, EYE-WATERING NUMBERS The way forward, presented to MPs and peers by the R&R team, has been boiled down to two stark options. The first is the so-called “full decant.” This would involve moving MPs and peers out of the palace to allow major works to be carried out. On current estimates, it would take 19 to 24 years and cost up to £15.6 billion. The second is an even slower, staged approach — catchily named “Enhanced Maintenance and Improvement plus”(EMI+) — where only the House of Lords is moved out, and works are done in phases while MPs’ parliamentary business continues on the estate. But that could take 38 to 61 years and cost up to £39.2 billion, the program’s figures suggest. In the coming weeks, MPs and peers are expected to vote on whether to at least green-light an initial seven-year package of preparatory works — a step that keeps both longer-term options alive, with a final decision pushed into the next decade. One of the most prominent advocates of the faster approach is Marie Goldman, the Liberal Democrat MP for Chelmsford. Goldman is a member of parliament’s Restoration and Renewal Programme Board, a cross-party body that scrutinizes the restoration team’s work.  For Goldman, the logic is blunt: if the work is going to happen at all, it is safer and ultimately cheaper to do it without thousands of staff, MPs and visitors continuing to use the building. “Trying to do those works with MPs and everyone else in place… feels like an absolute nightmare,” she says. The fight over the future of the site is now pitting politicians worried about spiraling costs against those who think the need to act is growing more urgent by the day. | Pool photo by Henry Nicholls via WPA/Getty Images Goldman is adamant that MPs and peers find a solution and believes Britain’s international reputation is at stake: “Nothing would say. Hey, look at the demise of Britain than watching the Houses of Parliament crumble into the Thames.” The government has said it will allow MPs a free vote on the restoration plans. Labour MP Mike Reader has followed the saga closely since his election in 2024. He backs option two, EMI+. Reader told POLITICO he has spoken directly with the consultants and contractors working across the estate — and believes the restoration team has underestimated the scale of the work needed, saying he fears “the discovery risk” of finding new problems as the work progresses. Reader says a longer-term approach would allow the restoration team greater scope “to learn and improve over time.” His “biggest fear” is that a different government decides to “stall and delay” the scheme or “require a complete rethink.” “Instability and uncertainty are the biggest risks to a program like this,” he warns. WASTING MONEY The fiercest critics see the project as typical of Westminster’s habit of wasting public money — and argue selling a multi-billion pound revamp will be impossible in a country grappling with the rising cost of living. Veteran Tory MP Edward Leigh, styled as the Father of the House for his long service, is a long-standing skeptic who argues that parliament should focus narrowly on essential safety upgrades rather than what he derides as “gold-plating.”  He believes plans to create a new visitors’ reception and steps to reduce the building’s carbon footprint are “bells and whistles.” “You don’t need all this, not when there’s an economic crisis. Our constituents are going to be absolutely furious.” Leigh wants what he describes as a “third option”: repealing parts of the current legal framework that mandates the restoration “in one go” and repairing the Palace in stages around MPs. His concerns over the costs involved are shared by the Conservative Party’s top brass. Leader Kemi Badenoch has raised “serious concerns about value for money.” She has instructed her party to vote against the plans in any parliamentary vote.  ‘CATASTROPHE’ Academic and parliament restoration specialist Alexandra Meakin — who has studied the project for years and previously worked in parliament — strongly disagrees with the Conservative Party’s position. Parliament needs fixing — and in the coming weeks, MPs and peers are expected to vote on what to do next. | Andy Rain/EPA “Desperately wanting there to be a third way or for it to not cost as much or for the repairs not to be as essential doesn’t make it less true,” she warns. Meakin adds: “Every review, every expert shows you cannot do this in any cheaper, quicker or safer way than just moving out entirely.” In her view, the core purpose of restoration is not gilding the palace — but preventing a future in which the building becomes unusable because of a major fire, flood or infrastructure failure. She warns: “The catastrophe is coming. The Palace of Westminster will become uninhabitable, whether it’s through fire, flood, or a failure of the essential infrastructure. And at that point, MPs and peers will have to face up to the fact that they have lost their own workplace, but they’ve also lost this iconic building for the nation.” LOOKING TO OTTAWA The U.K. is not the only old democracy grappling with decaying, neo-Gothic legislature buildings. Canada’s already moved its Commons chamber into a temporary home (known as West Block) while major works on Ottawa’s Centre Block proceed. Nick Taylor-Vaisey is POLITICO’s Ottawa bureau chief. He told Westminster Insider that Canada’s success was in part down to persuading hesitant MPs to move out entirely. The trick? Ensuring they were excited by their new alternative. “The West Block Chamber is actually a former courtyard and there is a glass ceiling on top, a novel, modern take on how you can build a legislature.”  Looking to the U.K., Taylor-Vaisey advised: “There is this chance to rethink what it could be.” Current plans in Westminster would likely involve MPs moving into Richmond House on the Whitehall estate, while the Lords would move into the QEII conference center. So far neither seems to have captured the imagination. 

The Green Party have won their very first by-election. Westminster Insider Host Sascha O’Sullivan goes inside the Greens’ effort to win the seat, and finds out how the battle for this seat will inform the three-way fights between the Greens, Labour and Reform UK. She speaks to Hannah Spencer on the election trail – and on the night itself. And she speaks to the other candidates, Angeliki Stogia for Labour and Matt Goodwin for Reform to find out what worked – and what didn’t. As Labour licks its wounds, director of the Labour Growth Group Mark McVitie talks Sascha through how the party machine have been thinking about the Greens and what needs to change. Pollster and director of More in Common Luke Tryl examines what the curious combination of voters can tell us about the future fights Labour will shake out. And deputy political editor of the Spectator James Heale explains why Reform’s Matt Goodwin didn’t win here in Gorton and Denton.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Keir Starmer may have survived a political near-death experience last week. But with a perilous by-election looming and punishing May elections on the horizon, few in Westminster think the prime minister is truly in the clear. With fresh jeopardy ahead, could Starmer become the fifth prime minister in a decade to fall short of a full term? This week on Westminster Insider, host Patrick Baker asks: why don’t UK prime ministers last anymore? Political historian and host of the Past, Present, Future podcast David Runciman argues the revolving door at the top reflects a wider global surge in political instability — driven above all by economic turbulence. Former Downing Street communications directors Katie Perrior, Lee Cain and James Lyons lift the lid on how Britain’s unforgiving 24/7 media machine is grinding down modern premiers. David Lammy’s former adviser Ben Judah and the Institute for Government’s Jill Rutter probe whether the civil service is helping — or hindering — an era of increasingly fragile premierships. And the author and historian Anthony Seldon says a “massive collapse” in prime ministerial experience means many new arrivals in Downing Street are stepping into the job unprepared for the demands of governing. 

LONDON — Keir Starmer has survived a political near-death experience. And he’s just the latest British prime minister to look shaky in the job. Less than two years after walking into No. 10 Downing Street, Britain’s leader is already facing calls to quit from his own party — and embarking on yet another reset of his operation to try to turn things around. His recent predecessors as prime minister may have some sympathy. Former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron’s sudden departure from No. 10 in 2016 after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union triggered a period of unprecedented churn in British politics. None of his successors — Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak — served a full parliamentary term. Three were ousted from high office by their own side. It wasn’t always this way: Prime ministers used to last. Margaret Thatcher completed 11 years at the top, spending the whole of the 1980s in No. 10. Her successor John Major lasted six-and-a-half years, and Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair enjoyed more than a decade in power. So what’s going on? From acute cost-of-living pressures to a weak No. 10, POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast asked historians and former political advisers why it now seems impossible for a British prime minister to last very long at the top.  IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID — DAVID RUNCIMAN, POLITICAL HISTORIAN David Runciman is a political historian and host of the “Past, Present, Future” podcast. He believes Britain’s instability is not unique — and is driven by a global cost-of-living squeeze. “Incumbency is harder because the world is a harder place to govern,” he says, pointing to the U.S., which has turfed presidents out after a single term in recent years. Runciman’s prime culprit? Rising prices, which he describes as “the killer of governments.” “In the seventies, when inflation was rampant, no democratic government anywhere in the world survived,” he points out.  THE CHAOS OF MODERN MEDIA — KATIE PERRIOR, FORMER DOWNING STREET DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS TO THERESA MAY Katie Perrior was Theresa May’s director of communications between 2016 and 2019. “Incumbency is harder because the world is a harder place to govern,” said David Runciman, pointing to the U.S., which has turfed presidents out after a single term in recent years | Michael Nguyen/NurPhoto via Getty Images May lasted fewer than three years in office after trying — and failing — to negotiate a Brexit deal with the European Union that she could also get the U.K. parliament to approve. Perrior reckons Westminster’s frenzied 24/7 media environment is largely to blame for making the U.K. “ungovernable.” No. 10 is ill-equipped for the demands of the modern media age, she says, and a government without a clear plan can very easily be blown off course. “You’re just being dragged into 20, 30 different crises at once,” Perrior warns. The messaging service WhatsApp also helped promote a culture of disobedience among MPs opposed to May’s leadership, Perrior argues. “Wild rumors spread. Backbenchers get themselves into a position of absolute paranoia,” she adds. NO. 10 IS UNDER-POWERED — EX-FOREIGN OFFICE ADVISER BEN JUDAH  Ben Judah recently left government after almost two years as a special adviser to David Lammy in the Foreign Office and Ministry of Justice. He says the No. 10 operation is too poorly staffed and underpowered to get what it wants out of SW1 mandarins — especially given the huge scope of government in the modern era. “When you get to the summit of that power, No. 10 isn’t a commanding office,” he argues. “Really, it’s a glorified Victorian private office that doesn’t have enough staff to actually pull together all the resources around it in Whitehall that only it can ultimately command to make change.” Judah thinks No. 10 should be given its own department to tackle what he sees as the weakness at the centre of the British state. POLITICAL INEXPERIENCE — HISTORIAN AND AUTHOR ANTHONY SELDON Anthony Seldon has written a biography of almost every living prime minister — so the past few years have kept him pretty busy. He puts the lack of prime ministerial longevity down to the “massive collapsing” of the experience of those walking through the doors of No. 10. Seldon points out that in the modern era many prime ministers arrive in the role with minimal experience of running a government department. He believes modern politics often rewards potent campaigners rather than diligent administrators, who might have more experience of what it means to run a government. This is a “very significant” factor in explaining why recent prime ministers “don’t know how to do the job,” he says.  “Being leader of the opposition is a pretty good test. Blair had that. Cameron had that, and Starmer had that. But it’s not like running anything,” he adds.

CRISIS-HIT STARMER SEEKS SOLACE ON THE WORLD STAGE The British leader’s allies believe his clout on the world stage can shore him up — but his own side will take some convincing. By ESTHER WEBBER and SASCHA O’SULLIVAN in London Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO After the week Keir Starmer’s had, talks about the teetering global order should be a welcome relief. The British PM arrives in Bavaria Friday for the Munich Security Conference having seen two of his closest aides walk out, his top man in Scotland urge him to quit, and continued rage from Labour MPs over the decision to appoint Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the U.S. Having staved off his immediate ouster, Starmer is now making another outing on the international stage, where his allies argue he carries genuine clout. He has so far been keen to emphasize the links he’s built with foreign leaders, including his relationship with Donald Trump and his efforts at a “reset” with the EU, as a marker of the renewed British influence that would be at risk were he challenged. But Labour’s restive troops will take some serious convincing of this argument — and doubts remain about some of the key overseas achievements touted by the embattled prime minister. “Starmer would’ve been a really good diplomat … He isn’t such a political actor,” Olivia O’Sullivan of foreign policy think tank Chatham House told the latest episode of POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast. TUG OF WAR All leaders face a tug of war between their lives as statesmen and their domestic agendas, but Starmer’s has proved especially strenuous. He came to power promising to fix Britain’s failing public services and lower the cost of living, as counseled by his then-top aide Morgan McSweeney. When Starmer entered Downing Street, however, he defied McSweeney’s wishes by telling advisers he wanted to divide his time 50/50 between foreign and domestic affairs, unable to resist a slew of foreign visits after taking the reins. During his first 17 months, he visited 44 countries on 37 trips out of the U.K. That included a flurry of bilateral meetings and international summits in destinations including Washington D.C., Berlin, Brussels, Rio de Janeiro, New York, Samoa, Budapest, Canada and Azerbaijan. He followed up with high-profile visits to India and China — seen by most in his team as successful. His allies have consistently defended this approach, stressing that representing Britain in the world is one of Starmer’s most important duties and that he has made a success of it. The prime minister has sought to project maturity by building a steady relationship with the unpredictable Trump at the same time as he seeks closer ties with Europe post-Brexit. O’Sullivan, director of the U.K. in the World program at Chatham House, said Britain is now walking “a pretty difficult tightrope” of “flattering Trump, of offering concessions where we can, but figuring out how we defend particular economic interests, but also the interests of our allies, and particularly Ukraine.” U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers, England, Sept. 18, 2025. | Leon Neal/Getty Images Peter Ricketts, former head of the U.K.’s diplomatic service, said the shift towards “a hyper-personalized world” demands Starmer’s presence. “Unless you are in the room with Donald Trump, you’re not influencing him,” Ricketts added. CONNECTING THE DOTS Eighteen months on from the Labour landslide of 2024, however, Starmer’s premiership has flown into more severe difficulties at home. And it’s forcing a rethink. An especially embarrassing climbdown over proposals to cut disability benefits partly unfolded as Starmer flew to the Hague for last year’s NATO summit. the prime minister appeared to admit he had been distracted from the issue, saying afterwards: “I was heavily focused on what was happening with NATO and the Middle East all weekend.” There has been an effort to redraw Starmer’s priorities since the start of the year, with one adviser saying he now wants to spend 20 percent of his time on international matters and 80 percent on domestic concerns. The opening weeks of 2026 showed just how hard this will be to achieve. His plans to talk about cutting the cost of living were immediately upended by Trump’s intervention in Venezuela and threats to Greenland. Unable to separate himself from global affairs, Starmer has instead attempted to send a message that his missions abroad will help improve Britain’s economy and quality of life. On recent trips to Brazil, South Africa and China he has been at pains to stress that “tackling the cost of living today also means engagement beyond our borders.” Ricketts said: “I understand the frustrations on the domestic sphere where he’s not around enough. But, heavens — the world is in a more turbulent place than I can ever remember it, and I’m glad my prime minister’s out there batting for Britain.” One Labour MP with a trade role, granted anonymity like others in this article to discuss internal party thinking, argued that the prime minister had delivered “lots of wins” which go down well among the party faithful. They cited Trump’s softening on NATO and carveout for the U.K. on tariffs.  Key British allies overseas also say Starmer’s support for Kyiv has made a genuine difference in advocating for peace in Ukraine. With his premiership in crisis this week, his supporters have pushed harder on that argument. “We need his leadership not just at home but on the global stage, and we need to keep our focus where it matters, on keeping our country safe,” Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper posted amid a threat to his leadership this week. In his first public appearance since Monday’s public challenge to him, Starmer trumpeted the need to “stand tall” on the international stage. Starmer delivers a speech at a community center in Hertfordshire, England, the day after Monday’s challenge to his leadership. | Pool picture by Suzanne Plunkett/AFP via Getty Images) “Delivering for Britain means acting at home and abroad — not choosing between them,” a Downing Street spokesperson said in a statement to POLITICO. “The record speaks for itself: world‑first trade deals, major migration agreements, and defense contracts supporting thousands of UK jobs – real results for the British people.” LEAST-WORST SCENARIOS For all the boosting of Starmer’s achievements, however, some of his supposed negotiating triumphs have diminished with time. The U.K.’s deal with the U.S. on tariffs has been hard to nail down, and Starmer’s much-hyped trip to China was followed by Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigner Jimmy Lai’s sentencing to 20 years in jail. Substantive deals with the EU on youth mobility, food standards and even the low-hanging fruit of defense cooperation have also proved elusive. As O’Sullivan put it, Starmer has “managed to land us in the least-worst scenario on some of these issues.” A former No.10 official said: “I baulk at the idea that Britain is back on the international stage. All this becomes thin pretty soon — you can position well but the substance of it isn’t that different.” There is a downside to Starmer’s foreign diplomacy when it comes to his standing with his own restive party and the country at large, too.  The PM has long faced accusations that he is distant, both literally and figuratively, when it comes to his colleagues. Labour figures warn that he simply does not have the political space to make an argument about the link between statesmanship and living standards to angry voters. “Part of the reason he’s getting this criticism is because he’s doing so badly in polls… but the justification he’s using is not a good one,” says a second former adviser. “It’s retrofitting, because he wanted to spend a lot of time abroad. People aren’t going to believe spending time with Trump will help the cost of living.”