Anxiety is mounting among officials from several Gulf nations that President Donald Trump may be inexorably driving the United States toward another attack against Iran, despite their ongoing efforts to counsel restraint. According to three people familiar with conversations between the administration and its Gulf allies, the White House is giving few assurances about heeding that counsel. And the three people believe Trump’s tough public rhetoric — not to mention his continued shifting of military resources toward the Gulf — are boxing him in to the point that some kind of strike on Iran may beinevitable. After the U.S. operation weeks ago to remove former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, “there is no doubt about the U.S. military’s capabilities,” said one of the people familiar, a senior Gulf official. Like others interviewed for this report, the official was granted anonymity to speak candidly about a fluid and highly sensitive geopolitical situation. What has been harder to assess, the senior Gulf official said, is whether Trump has settled on a clear objective for another assault on Iran — whether to pursue regime change in Tehran or simply to send a message — not to mention the tactics. Trump has repeatedly vaguely promised protestors in Iran that “help is on the way.” “It’s still unclear to us what both sides want, even after a lot of dialogue,” said the second person familiar, a senior Arab diplomat who’s been in contact with the administration. Five countries — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Turkiye — have been working together to stave off another flare-up or all-out war that could destabilize the Gulf region. Trump has long prioritized deepening business and diplomatic ties in a modernizing, more peaceful Middle East, an objective that at times has come into conflict with his approach to Iran, where he continues to hold out the threat of military force in his pursuit of a deal. The Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, went public this week with his promise to Iran’s president that Riyadh would not allow its airspace to be used for any attack on Iran. That followed a similar statement from the UAE. Through various channels, officials from those nations have urged Iran’s leaders to the negotiating table. But they privately acknowledge that a deal to further eradicate the country’s nuclear program, which was severely degraded in a U.S. bombing blitz last year at the end of a 12-day war with Israel, seems unlikely. On Friday while speaking with reporters in the Oval Office, Trump, who was warned Iran’s leaders both about restarting its nuclear program and any violence used to quell mass protests, again drew attention to the fact that a “large armada” of American warships was headed to the Gulf at his direction. He noted that this show of force is one that’s “even larger than in Venezuela.” That new naval deployment rivals that sent in the spring before the joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is newly arrived in the region, alongside five guided missile destroyers and two smaller littoral combat ships which can be used to track missiles launched by Iran. While the U.S. and allies have significant air defenses in the region, some systems that were rushed there in the spring, like a Patriot battery normally stationed in South Korea, have returned home. While Trump pointed out the armada’s fire power, he expressed that his preference would be finding a diplomatic solution. “If we do make a deal, that’s good. If we don’t make a deal. We’ll see what happens,” he said, adding that Iran wants to make a deal.

LONDON — The U.K. and Poland have agreed to cooperate more closely to shoot down air and missile threats, as they seek to strengthen the protection of their skies. The two NATO allies will step up joint training of helicopter pilots and work together on new capabilities to counter attacks from the air. British and Polish military personnel will train together in virtual environments to improve air defense techniques, while eight Polish military helicopter pilots will undertake training in the U.K. under NATO’s military aviation program. Two Polish helicopter instructors will be permanently stationed at RAF Shawbury in the West Midlands for a full rotational tour. The announcement came during a visit by Polish President Karol Nawrocki to Downing Street on Tuesday. U.K. Defense Secretary, John Healey, hailed Poland as “a crucial ally for the U.K. in this era of rising threats” and said together they were “stepping up to defend Europe and face down the threat from (Vladimir) Putin.” British fighter jets conducted an air defense mission over Poland as part of an allied response to Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace, with pilots from the two countries flying together as part of NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission. Healey announced last year that British armed forces would get fresh powers to bring down suspicious drones over military sites as part of the Armed Forces Bill, amid a spate of aerial incursions across Europe. Ministers have committed to improving the U.K.’s aerial defenses, following concerns that it is increasingly vulnerable given the changing nature of threats from the air. The U.K. and Poland have cooperated extensively on air defense in the past, including a £1.9 billion export agreement announced in April 2023 to equip 22 Polish air defense batteries, and a separate deal worth over £4 billion to continue the next phase of Poland’s future air defense programme, Narew. 

The Netherlands has pulled out of U.S.-led counter-drug missions in the Caribbean, a reaction to the rising death toll from American military attacks on vessels suspected of being used to smuggle narcotics. Speaking Monday evening in Aruba, Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Dutch forces would continue drug interdiction within Dutch territorial waters, but would not take part in U.S. operations on the high seas linked to Operation Southern Spear. The operation, launched in September, has killed more than 100 people in over 20 attacks on boats that the U.S. says  were ferrying drugs. “We have worked together with the Americans on counter-narcotics for many years, but in a different way,” Brekelmans said. “When we see drug smuggling, we try to arrest and prosecute those responsible. Not by shooting ships.” The move was first reported by the Dutch daily Trouw. The decision marks a break with past practice. For years, the Netherlands, which controls six islands in the Caribbean, cooperated closely with the United States and other partners in the region, including through the Joint Interagency Task Force South. Dutch defense forces and the coast guard worked with U.S. counterparts on surveillance, interdiction, arrests and extraditions. What has changed, Brekelmans said, is the method adopted by the Donald Trump administration. “Outside our territorial waters, we see that the Americans have now chosen a national route again,” he said. “The method and the operation the United States is carrying out now, they are really doing that themselves. We are not participating in that.” The move comes amid heightened tensions after the United States used military force to detain Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and escalate pressure on Caracas, prompting international criticism over violations of sovereignty and international law. Brekelmans said Dutch defense planners were closely watching developments between Washington and Caracas, but stressed there is currently no military threat from Venezuela toward the Dutch Caribbean islands. “We must always be prepared for different scenarios,” he said, noting that rising tensions can affect airspace and regional stability. “But you also have to look realistically at what the actual threats are.” Brekelmans made clear the Netherlands would not provide facilities, helicopters or other support if requested for Southern Spear. “If it is part of that operation, then that is not something we agree to,” he said. “For this operation, we are not making our facilities available.” CNN reported in November that London had suspended some intelligence sharing with the United States after Washington began launching lethal strikes on boats in the Caribbean.

The U.S. carried out a “large scale strike” against Venezuela early Saturday, capturing leader Nicolás Maduro and flying him out of the country, U.S. President Donald Trump said. “The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the country,” Trump said in a post on social media. “This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow,” Trump added. He said there will be a press conference at Mar-a-Lago later Saturday, at 11 a.m. local time. The government of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro had accused Washington of launching strikes on the country after explosions rang out early Saturday and low-flying aircraft swept through the capital of Caracas. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration had issued a ban on U.S. commercial flights in Venezuelan airspace because of “ongoing military activity” ahead of the explosions in Caracas, the Associated Press reported. The strikes followed a months-long pressure campaign by the Trump administration. The attack lasted less than 30 minutes, according to media reports. Maduro earlier this week rejected Trump’s claims that his government is abetting global narco-trafficking, accusing the White House of inventing a reason to go after the South American country in an interview with state media.

Poland scrambled fighter jets and placed its air defense systems on heightened alert overnight as Moscow launched one of its heaviest air assaults on Ukraine in recent weeks.  The Russian attack sent shockwaves across NATO’s eastern flank just a day before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is due to meet U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss a newly revised peace proposal. Poland’s Operational Command posted Saturday on X that military aviation operations were launched in Polish airspace “in connection with the activity of long-range aviation of the Russian Federation carrying out strikes on the territory of Ukraine.”  Fighter jets were scrambled and ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems were put on readiness as a preventive measure to protect Polish airspace. The move came as Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with nearly 500 drones — many of them Iranian-designed Shaheds — and around 40 missiles, including Kinzhal hypersonic weapons, according to Ukrainian authorities. “Another Russian attack is still ongoing,” Zelenskyy wrote on X at mid-morning Saturday, saying the primary target was Kyiv, where energy facilities and civilian infrastructure were hit. He said residential buildings were damaged and rescue teams were searching for people trapped under rubble, while electricity and heating were cut in parts of the capital amid freezing temperatures. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said at least one person was killed and more than 20 others were injured in Kyiv, with multiple civilian sites damaged and search-and-rescue operations continuing. Zelenskyy said the barrage underscored Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lack of seriousness about ending the war. “Russian representatives engage in lengthy talks, but in reality, Kinzhals and Shaheds speak for them,” Zelenskyy wrote. The attack came one day before Zelenskyy is expected to meet Trump in Florida to present a revised 20-point peace plan, including proposals on security guarantees and territorial arrangements, talks Trump has publicly framed as contingent on his approval. Several hours later, Poland’s military said the air operation had ended and that no violation of Polish airspace had been detected.

BRUSSELS — European leaders like Romania’s Nicușor Dan spent most of 2025 trying to work out how to live with Donald Trump. Or — even worse — without him. Since the great disruptor of international norms returned to the White House in January, he has made clear just how little he really cares for Europe — some of his key lieutenants are plainly hostile.  The U.S. president slashed financial and military aid to Ukraine, hit the European Union with tariffs, and attacked its leaders as “weak.” His administration is now on a mission to intervene in Europe’s democracy to back “patriotic” parties and shift politics toward MAGA’s anti-migrant goals.  For leaders such as Romania’s moderate president, the dilemma is always how far to accept Trump’s priorities — because Europe still needs America — and how strongly to resist his hostility to centrist European values. Does a true alliance even still exist across the Atlantic? “The world [has] changed,” Dan said in an interview from his top-floor Brussels hotel suite. “We shifted from a — in some sense — moral way of doing things to a very pragmatic and economical way of doing things.” EU leaders understand this, he said, and now focus their attention on developing practical strategies for handling the new reality of Trump’s world. Centrists will need to factor in a concerted drive from Americans to back their populist opponents on the right as the United States seeks to change Europe’s direction. Administration officials such as Vice President JD Vance condemned last year’s canceled election in Romania and the new White House National Security Strategy suggests the U.S. will seek to bend European politics to its anti-migrant MAGA agenda. For Dan, it is “OK” for U.S. politicians to express their opinions. But it would be a “problem” if the U.S. tried to “influence” politics “undemocratically” — for example, by paying media inside European countries “like the Russians are doing.” WEAK EUROPEANS Relations with America are critical for a country like Romania, which, unusually, remained open to the West during four decades of communist rule. On the EU’s eastern edge, bordering Ukraine, Romania is home to a major NATO base — soon to be Europe’s biggest — as well as an American ballistic missile defense site. But the Trump administration has announced the withdrawal of 800 American troops from Romania, triggering concern in Bucharest. As winter sun streamed in through the window, Dan argued that Europe and the U.S. are natural allies because they share more values than other regions of the world. He thought “a proper partnership” will be possible — “in the medium [term] future.” But for now, “we are in some sense of a transition period in which we have to understand better each other.” Dan’s frank assessment reveals the extent of the damage that has been done to the transatlantic alliance this year. Trump has injected jeopardy into all aspects of the Western alliance — even restoring relations with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin.  At times, Europeans have been at a loss over how to respond.  Does Dan believe Trump had a point when he told POLITICO this month that European leaders were “weak”?  “Yes,” Dan said, there is “some” truth in Trump’s assessment. Europe can be too slow to make decisions. For example, it took months of argument and a fraught summit in Brussels last week that ended at 3 a.m. to agree on a way to fund Ukraine. But — crucially — even a fractious EU did eventually take “the important decision,” he said. That decision to borrow €90 billion in joint EU debt for a loan for cash-strapped Kyiv will keep Ukraine in the fight against Putin for the next two years.  WAITING FOR PEACE According to EU leaders who support the plan (Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia won’t take part), it makes a peace deal more likely because it sends a signal to Putin that Ukraine won’t just collapse if he waits long enough. But Dan believes the end of the war remains some way off, despite Trump’s push for a ceasefire.  “I am more pessimistic than optimistic on short term,” he said. Putin’s side does not appear to want peace: “They think a peace in two, three months from now will be better for them than peace now. So they will fight more — because they have some small progress on the field.”  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at last week’s European Council summit that he wanted Trump to put more pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Does Dan agree? “Of course. We are supporting Ukraine.” But Trump’s “extremely powerful” recent sanctions on Russian oil firms Rosneft and Lukoil are already helping, Dan said. He also welcomed Trump’s commitment to peace, and America’s new openness to providing security guarantees to bolster a final deal.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at last week’s European Council summit that he wanted Trump to put more pressure on Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Does Dan agree? “Of course. We are supporting Ukraine.” | Olivier Hoslet/EPA It is clear that Dan hopes Putin doesn’t get the whole of Donbas in eastern Ukraine, but he doesn’t want to tie Zelenskyy’s hands. “Any kind of peace in which the aggressor is rewarded in some sense is not good for Europe and for the future security of the world,” Dan said. “But the decision for the peace is just on the Ukrainian shoulders. They suffer so much, so we cannot blame them for any decision they will do.” Romania plays a critical role as an operational hub for transferring supplies to neighboring Ukraine. With its Black Sea port of Constanța, the country will be vital to future peacekeeping operations. Ukrainian soldiers are training in Romania and it is already working with Bulgaria and Turkey to demine the Black Sea, Dan said.  Meanwhile, Russian drones have breached Romanian airspace more than a dozen times since the start of the full-scale war, and a village on the border with Ukraine had to be evacuated recently when drones set fire to a tanker ship containing gas. Dan played down the threat.  “We had some drones. We are sure they have not intentionally [been] sent on our territory,” he said. “We try to say to our people that they are not at all in danger.” Still, Romania is boosting its military spending to deter Russia all the same. CORRUPTION AND A CRISIS OF FAITH Dan, 56, won the presidency in May this year at a tense moment for the country of 19 million people. The moderate former mayor of Bucharest defeated his populist, Ukraine-skeptic opponent against the odds. The vote was a rerun, after the first attempt to hold a presidential election was canceled last December over allegations of massive Russian interference and unlawful activity in support of the far-right front-runner Călin Georgescu. Legal cases are underway, including charges against Georgescu and others over an alleged coup plot. But for many Romanians, the cancelation of the 2024 election merely reinforced their cynicism toward the entire democratic system in their country. They wanted change and almost half the electorate backed the far right to deliver it.  Corruption today remains a major problem in Romania and Dan made it his mission to restore voters’ faith. In his first six months, however, he prioritized painful and unpopular public-sector spending cuts to bring the budget deficit — which was the EU’s biggest — under control. “On the big problems of society, starting with corruption, we didn’t do much,” Dan confessed. That, he said, will change. A recent TV documentary about alleged corruption in the judiciary provoked street demonstrations and a protest letter signed by hundreds of judges. Dan is due to meet them this week and will then work on legislative reforms focused on making sure the best magistrates are promoted on merit rather than because of who they know. “People at the top are working for small networks of interests, instead of the public good,” Dan said. But for many Romanians, the cancellation of the 2024 election merely reinforced their cynicism toward the entire democratic system in their country. | Robert Ghement/EPA He was also clear that the state has not yet done enough to explain to voters why the election last year was canceled. More detail will come in a report expected in the next two months, he said. RUSSIAN MEDDLING One thing that is now obvious is that Russia’s attack on Romanian democracy, including through a vast TikTok influence campaign, was not isolated. Dan said his country has been a target for Moscow for a decade, and other European leaders tell him they now suffer the same disinformation campaigns, as well as sabotage. Nobody has an answer to the torrent of fake news online, he said. “I just have talks with leaders for countries that are more advanced than us and I think nobody has a complete answer,” he said. “If you have that kind of information and that information arrived to half a million people, even if you’re coming the next day saying that it was false, you have lost already.” The far-right populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians party is ahead in the polls on about 40 percent, mirroring the pattern elsewhere in Europe. Dan, who beat AUR leader George Simion in May, believes his own team must get closer to the people to defeat populism. And he wishes that national politicians around Europe would stop blaming all their unpopular policies on Brussels because that merely fuels populist causes. Dan said he has learned that EU politics is in fact a democratic process, in which different member countries bring their own ideas forward. “With my six months’ experience, I can say that it’s quite a debate,” he said. “There is not a bureaucratic master that’s arranging things. It’s a democracy. It’s a pity that the people do not feel that directly.” But what about those marathon EU summits that keep everyone working well beyond midnight? “The topics are well chosen,” Dan said. “But I think the debates are a little bit too long.”

BRUSSELS — Donald Trump’s attack on Europe as “decaying” with “weak” leaders has renewed the EU’s push to get serious about diversifying its economic, military and political ties ― and cutting reliance on the U.S. Leaders at a summit in Brussels on Thursday are supposed to sign off on European support for Ukraine, defense spending and measures aimed at boosting Europe’s competitiveness over the U.S. and China. But while Europe is determined to go it alone after decades of leaning on its friends across the Atlantic, nothing’s that easy. While the American president’s criticism has persuaded the EU’s leadership that making progress on a stalled trade deal with Latin America ― Mercosur ― would be the best way to showcase its geopolitical heft in a region that is increasingly courted by China and the U.S., France and other countries are holding out. “The answer to the U.S. on Europe’s ‘decay,’ the answer to the U.S. National Security Strategy, to the U.S. trade deal, the answer to China, to Russia, to the increased transactionalism between powers is Mercosur,” a senior EU official told POLITICO. Sealing the agreement would require EU leaders to confront entrenched resistance in France — and growing doubts in Italy — where hostility to the deal has permeated the entire political class for years, over fears it could expose their influential farmers to a flood of cheaper Latin American produce. For proponents of the agreement, boosting links with the Mercosur bloc, which groups Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, is a key test of whether Paris really wants Europe to stand on its own after years of being the loudest champion of Europe’s sovereignty. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY A group of governments led by Germany and Spain argue the moment has come for France to back up its talk of sovereignty, warning that Paris’ blockade of the Mercosur deal is undermining Europe’s push to stand on its own. To those countries, Mercosur represents a golden opportunity for their companies to expand into new, like-minded markets — away from China or the U.S. “We are pretty much convinced that if there is no possibility of a deal this week then it’s probably going to be dead,” said a German government official. “We see that the deal already starts unraveling.” And after years in which Paris championed Europe’s push for “strategic autonomy,” they warn France seems unable, or unwilling, to reconcile that ambition with its longstanding rejection of the Latin American deal. But for France, there’s no paradox. Nowhere is the EU’s difficulty in striking out alone clearer than in the quarrel over using frozen Russian assets to underwrite a €210 billion loan to keep Ukraine’s finances afloat. | Michael Nguyen/Getty Images “For Paris, this stance aligns neatly with its vision of ‘strategic autonomy’: The EU should do everything possible to protect its producers and uphold its standards,” said Georgina Wright, a senior fellow specializing in France, EU and U.S. relations at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank. In France and Poland, the deal is so toxic across the political spectrum that reassurances from the European Commission have fallen on deaf ears. This despite efforts by Brussels to come up with additional cash for farmers and to impose tariffs if cheap Brazilian beef undercuts domestic farmers.  Paris is worried that the deal will fuel public anger toward the political establishment, with the far right leading in opinion polls for the country’s presidential elections in 2027. “But this stance is seen by a majority of member states as counterproductive at a time when the EU is looking to diversify its trade relations to respond to pressure from the U.S. and China. France is seen as uncompromising, refusing to budge even though it is in the minority,” Wright added. FEAR OF DEFENSE POWER GRAB But it’s not just about trade. Increasing concerns about U.S. unpredictability and the scale of Russian aggression are driving European countries to take charge of their own security.  The European Commission is pushing member countries to sign up to so-called flagship defense projects and pool resources on key areas like drones and anti-drone systems. However, EU heavyweights such as France and Germany have reacted skeptically to the proposals since they were unveiled over the summer. Paris and Berlin worry the moves would undercut their national priorities and give too much power to Brussels over defense policy. The flagship projects do not feature on the latest draft summit conclusions, seen by POLITICO. But while Paris said they were not on the agenda Thursday, Nordic countries are still hoping to salvage the plans. Two EU officials said the bloc’s executive has been working to reassure them that Brussels isn’t overreaching, and that they will still have clear control over their assets and spending. The difficulty in signing off on more collaboration, even as Russian fighter jets and drones breach EU airspace, worries many that they aren’t moving fast enough against hostile states and competitors that can act by executive fiat. DEAL ON THE LINE Nowhere is the EU’s difficulty in striking out alone clearer than in the quarrel over using frozen Russian assets to underwrite a €210 billion loan to keep Ukraine’s finances afloat. Whether Trump is fueling Europe’s strategic autonomy drive — or holding it back — decision time is fast approaching on key issues. “We can have discussions at evenings, at weekends, through the night,” a second official said of the preparations for Thursday’s summit. “But when an issue matters this much, we really don’t have any option but to get on and do it.” Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.

Alleged cigarette smugglers — not hybrid threat agents — were behind the mysterious Belarusian weather balloons that recently spooked Lithuania into shutting its border and declaring a national emergency. Lithuanian authorities said Tuesday they had detained 21 people, allegedly members of a criminal group, on suspicion of smuggling cigarettes from Belarus with the use of GPS-equipped balloons. The general prosecutor’s office said in a statement that the alleged network was “characterized by a very strict conspiracy and distribution of roles,” and that “the organizers may have had direct contacts with accomplices operating in the Republic of Belarus, from where, under favorable weather conditions, balloons with smuggled cigarettes were launched.” Lithuanian authorities said GPS tracking had allowed the balloons to be monitored “and the exact coordinates of their landing in Lithuania were transmitted to the executors.” The country declared a nationwide state of emergency last week over the balloons after closing its border with Belarus in October. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO at the time that the car-sized balloons carrying smuggled cigarettes into the country’s airspace constituted “hybrid activities,” even if they were not direct security threats. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also condemned the balloon incursions from Belarus, saying on Dec. 1 that “Such hybrid attack by the Lukashenko regime is completely unacceptable.” According to Lithuanian Interior Ministry data, at least 600 balloons and 200 drones have entered Lithuania’s airspace so far in 2025, disrupting more than 300 flights, affecting 47,000 passengers and leading to around 60 hours of airport closures. The arrests of the alleged cigarette smugglers come as frontline countries on the EU’s eastern flank with Russia plead with Brussels to accelerate its upcoming border defense initiatives in the face of opposition from some European capitals.

HELSINKI — Europe’s easternmost countries have a blunt message for Brussels: Russia is testing their borders, and the EU needs to start paying for the response. Leaders from eight EU states bordering Russia will use a summit in Helsinki on Tuesday to press for dedicated defense funding in the bloc’s next long-term budget, arguing that frontline security can no longer be treated as a national expense alone, according to three European government officials. “Strengthening Europe’s eastern flank must become a shared responsibility for Europe,” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said Monday. The first-of-its-kind summit, spearheaded by Finnish Premier Petteri Orpo, underscores a growing anxiety among the EU’s so-called Eastern flank countries about Russia’s increasingly brazen efforts to test their defenses and stir panic among their populations. In recent months Russia has flown fighter jets into Estonian airspace and sent dozens of drones deep into Polish and Romanian territory. Its ally Belarus has repeatedly brought Lithuanian air traffic to a standstill by allowing giant balloons to cross its borders. And last week, Moscow’s top envoy Sergey Lavrov issued a veiled threat to Finland to exit NATO.  “Russia is a threat to Europe … far into the future,” Orpo told Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat on Saturday. “There is always a competition for resources in the EU, but [defense funding] is not something that is taken away from anyone.” Tuesday’s confab, attended by Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, comes during a critical week for Europe. On Monday several EU leaders met with U.S. officials as they strain to hammer out a peace deal in Ukraine, just three days before all 27 EU countries reconvene for a crucial summit that will determine whether they unlock €210 billion in frozen Russian cash for Kyiv. OPEN THE VAULTS At the heart of Tuesday’s discussion will be unblocking EU money.  The frontline countries want the EU to “propose new financial possibilities for border countries and solidarity-based financial tools,” said one of the government officials. As part of its 2028-2034 budget proposal, the European Commission plans to raise its defense spending fivefold to €131 billion. Frontline countries would like some of that cash to be earmarked for the region, two of the government officials said, a message they are likely to reiterate during Thursday’s European Council summit in Brussels. “Strengthening Europe’s eastern flank must become a shared responsibility for Europe,” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said. | Hendrik Schmidt/Getty Images In the meantime, the EU should consider new financial instruments similar to the bloc’s €150 billion loans-for-weapons program, called the Security Action For Europe, the same two officials said. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen told POLITICO last week she had received calls to set up a “second SAFE” after the first iteration was oversubscribed. The frontline countries also want to throw their political weight behind two upcoming EU projects to buttress the bloc’s anti-drone and broader defenses, the two officials said. EU leaders refused to formally endorse the Eastern Flank Watch and European Drone Defense Initiative at a summit in October amid opposition by countries like Hungary, France and Germany, who saw them as overreach by Brussels on defense, two EU diplomats said at the time. A request to reserve part of the EU budget for a specific region may also face opposition from other countries. To get around this, Eastern flank countries should link defense “infrastructure improvements to overall [EU] economic development,” said Jamie Shea, a senior defense fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank and a former NATO spokesperson. Frontline capitals should also look at “opening up [those infrastructure projects] for competitive bidding” to firms outside the region, he added. DIFFERENT REGION, DIFFERENT VIEW Cash won’t be the only divisive issue in the shadows of Tuesday’s gathering. In recent weeks Donald Trump’s administration has repeatedly rebuked Europe, with the U.S. president branding the continent’s leaders “weak” in an interview with POLITICO. Countries like Germany and Denmark have responded to growing U.S. admonishments by directly rebutting recent criticisms and formally branding Washington a “security risk”.  But that approach has rankled frontline countries, conscious of jeopardizing Washington’s commitment to NATO’s collective defense pledge, which they see as a last line of protection against Moscow. This view also reflects a growing worry inside NATO that a peace deal in Ukraine will give Moscow more bandwidth to rearm and redirect its efforts toward frontline countries. “If the war stops in Ukraine … [Russia’s] desire is to keep its soldiers busy,” said one senior NATO diplomat, arguing those troops are likely to be “relocated in our direction.” “Europe should take over [its own] defenses,” the diplomat added. But until the continent becomes militarily independent, “we shouldn’t talk like this” about the U.S., they argued. “It’s really dangerous [and] it’s stupid.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report from Brussels.

Lithuania on Tuesday declared a nationwide state of emergency over a surge in contraband-carrying balloons flying over the border from Belarus. “It’s clear that this emergency is being declared not only because of disruptions to civil aviation, but also due to national security concerns and the need for closer coordination among institutions,” Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovič said during a government meeting Tuesday. Kondratovič added that the government had asked the parliament to grant the military additional powers to work with the law enforcement authorities during the state of the emergency. “By introducing a state of emergency today, we are legitimizing the participation of the military … and indeed, every evening, a number of crews go out together with the police, conduct patrols, monitor the territory, and detect cargo,” he said. Lithuania has accused its neighbor Belarus of repeatedly smuggling contraband cigarettes into the country using balloons, prompting air traffic disruptions and a border closure with Belarus. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has called Vilnius’ response “petty.” According to Lithuanian Interior Ministry data, at least 600 balloons and 200 drones entered Lithuania’s airspace this year, disrupting more than 300 flights, affecting 47,000 passengers and leading to around 60 hours of airport closures. Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said the state emergency will help coordination between joint response teams to better intercept the balloons, which both Lithuania and the EU consider to be hybrid attacks. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO in an interview in October that the EU must prepare new sanctions against Belarus to deprive it of the ability to wage hybrid war.