PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron’s celebrations over the imminent passage of the 2026 budget will be short-lived. Once it’s approved, he’s going to be a lame duck until the presidential election of spring next year. Current and former ministers, lawmakers and political aides — including three Macron allies — told POLITICO that now that the budget fight is over and the concerns of angry citizens and jittery markets are assuaged, the whole cycle of French politics will shift to campaign mode at the expense of the dirty work of lawmaking.  First will come next month’s municipal elections, where voters in all of France’s 35,000-plus communes will elect mayors and city councils. Then all attention will flip to the race for the all-powerful presidency, Macron cannot run again due to term limits, and polls show he could be replaced by a candidate from the far-right National Rally. “It’s the end of [Macron’s] term,” a former adviser close to Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said of the budget’s passage.   Gabriel Attal, Macron’s former prime minister who now leads the French president’s party, confirmed in an interview with French media last month that he told his troops the budget marked “the end” of Macron’s second term.  “I stand by what I said,” Attal told FranceInfo.  As president, Macron continues to exert a strong influence over foreign affairs and defense, two realms that will keep him on the world stage given the geopolitical upheaval brought on by U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Domestically, however, he’s been hampered by the snap election in 2024 that delivered a hung parliament.  Lecornu was only able to avoid being toppled over the passage of the budget, as his two immediate predecessors were, thanks to his political savvy, some compromises and a few bold decisions. These included pausing Macron’s flagship pension reform that raised the retirement age and going back on his promise not to use a constitutional backdoor to ram it through without a vote. “Lecornu was smart enough to make the budget phase pass and end on a high note. That’s commendable, given that [former Prime Ministers Michel] Barnier and [François] Bayrou didn’t manage to do so, and he did it with considerable skill,” said a ministerial adviser who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.  But Lecornu’s decision to prioritize uncontroversial measures in the coming weeks speak to the difficulties that lie ahead.   These priorities include defining the division of power between the central government and local authorities, and streamlining and centralizing welfare payments that are currently doled out in an ad hoc fashion. Lecornu is also planning to get to work early on France’s 2027 fiscal plans to try to prevent the third budget crisis in a row.  French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu leaves the Elysee Palace in Paris after a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 28. His decision to prioritize uncontroversial measures in the coming weeks speak to the difficulties ahead. | Mohammed Badra/EPA “There will be a presidential election in 2027. Before then, we need to agree on a bottom line which allows the country to move forward,” government spokesperson Maud Bregeon said Thursday on Sud Radio.  Lecornu has repeatedly stressed that his government should be disconnected from the race for president, blaming “partisan appetites” for both the budget crisis and the collapse of his 14-hour government, which was eventually replaced with a suite of less ambitious ministers.   But it’s ironic that some French government officials and MPs are now saying the self-described warrior-monk prime minister may have vaulted himself into the realm of presidential contender with his budget win. Mathieu Gallard, a pollster at Ipsos, said Lecornu had clearly become a more viable presidential candidate but noted that the jump from prime minister to president “is always a hard task.”  One parliamentary leader was much less sanguine. They said the same “partisan appetites” Lecornu has long warned about will likely cost him his job before voters head to the polls to choose Macron’s successor.   “[Lecornu] has few friends … And now that the budget has passed, every political group can have fun throwing him out of office to plant their flag before the next presidential election,” the leader said.  Anthony Lattier, Sarah Paillou and Elisa Bertholomey contributed to this report. 

PARIS — The French government survived two no-confidence votes over its fiscal plans Friday, moving one step closer to finally adopting a proper state budget for the year. The motion of no confidence put forward by the far-left France Unbowed was backed by 269 MPs — 19 votes short of passing— while the far-right National Rally’s version netted support from a mere 142 lawmakers. The two parties attempted to bring down Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government following his decision to use a constitutional backdoor to pass France’s 2026 budget after lawmakers failed to approve one before the end of 2025. That maneuver, Article 49.3 of the constitution, allows the government to ram through legislation without a vote but in turn gives opposition lawmakers the opportunity to respond by putting forward a no-confidence vote. Lecornu triggered that measure on Tuesday to pass the part of the budget that concerns raising revenue. He is expected to use it again Friday to pass the final part of the budget concerning government expenditures. Lecornu had been expected to survive, as the political extremes do not have enough lawmakers among themselves to bring down the government. The more centrist Socialists, who have played a kingmaker role during the prime minister’s tenure, did not try to topple the government after Lecornu offered them several last-minute budgetary concessions. France is under pressure from financial markets and international institutions to cut a budget deficit that came in at 5.4 percent of GDP last year and debt that is projected to go up to 118.2 percent of GDP in 2026, according to the government’s forecast. The country’s hung parliament was, for a second year in a row, unable to craft a state budget on its own despite Lecornu’s pledge to let lawmakers search for a consensus. They did, however, agree to a deal on funding the country’s social security system. Without proper plans in place, lawmakers were forced to roll over the 2025 budget into the new year until proper fiscal plans could be finalized. Lecornu said last week he would use Article 49.3 to enact a budget despite having ruled that option out in October. The 2026 budget being enacted is projected to carry a deficit of 5 percent of GDP and remains under excessive deficit procedure from the European Commission. Paris has pledged to bring the figure below 3 percent of GDP, as required by EU rules, by 2029.

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will risk his government’s survival by ramming a state budget through parliament without a vote to break a monthslong legislative deadlock. The PM explained Monday that he would on Tuesday invoke Article 49.3, a constitutional backdoor that allows the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote, to enact the part of the budget that deals with tax revenue. Opposition parties can respond to the move by calling for a no-confidence vote that, if successful, topples the government and blocks the bill in question. Far-left France Unbowed heavyweight Mathilde Panot said before Lecornu’s announcement that her party would respond by filing a motion of no confidence. Lecornu and his government entered the new year with mostly risky options to finalize France’s fiscal plans after lawmakers in the country’s hung parliament failed to pass a proper budget before the end of 2025. Lecornu had, early in his tenure, ruled out using Article 49.3 to pass a budget, betting the concession would help ensure the survival of his minority government. But on Monday he acknowledged that despite personal “regret” and “bitterness,” he would need to go back on his word, saying that while the government wanted the parliamentary procedure to continue “until the end,” the legislature’s fractured nature had made it impossible. The success of the PM’s maneuver will likely depend on getting the Socialist Party, who have played a kingmaker role throughout Lecornu’s tenure, to abstain from voting for any censure. Boris Vallaud, a high-ranking Socialist, said Monday the party could play ball thanks to concessions announced Friday, which include €1 lunches for university students and more spending on social housing. The government is currently being financed by an emergency measure passed late last year that effectively just rolls over the 2025 budget into the new year. That legislative bandage does nothing to cut France’s chronically high budget deficit, which Lecornu reiterated Friday must be brought down to 5 percent of gross domestic product this year.

PARIS — After weeks of failed negotiations, the French government is preparing to force a budget for 2026 through without parliament’s approval. Such a move could end a budget crisis stretching back months — but could equally leave France without a government and, in the worst-case scenario, still without a budget. France entered the new year without a proper spending plan after the government’s fiscal legislation failed to pass parliament in December. Lawmakers only approved an emergency bill to roll over last year’s budget into 2026, averting a U.S.-style government shutdown. MPs returned from the holiday break with little more appetite to strike a deal, and the prospects of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government persuading a majority to back a budget — one that includes politically sensitive measures to rein in France’s chronic deficit — have all but evaporated. In a statement sent to reporters, Lecornu’s office said “continued sabotage” by France’s two largest opposition forces — the hard-left France Unbowed and the far-right National Rally — had made it impossible to pass a budget, even though these two parties don’t hold a majority of seats in parliament, and even though most lawmakers — spanning from the center-left Socialist Party to the conservative Les Républicains — had agreed to enter budget talks over the past few months, albeit failed to reach a compromise. The French constitution gives Lecornu two options. Because parliament failed to pass a budget by the constitutional deadline, the government is allowed to legislate by executive action. The upside: A budget would be adopted, and lawmakers would have no immediate recourse. The downside: No budget has ever been passed this way, and doing so could be perceived as an assault on parliamentary democracy — sharply increasing the likelihood that a no-confidence motion against the government would succeed. The second option would be to invoke the constitution’s controversial article 49.3. The provision allows the government to enact legislation without a vote, while giving opposition parties the right to respond with a no-confidence motion that, if passed, would block the bill and topple the government. That route carries the risk of prolonging the budget crisis, but could be seen as less undemocratic by some opposition parties. Crucially, the center-left Socialists could be persuaded not to support any ensuing no-confidence motion if a budget passed via Article 49.3 incorporates some of their policy priorities. “This is the money time,” a Socialist Party negotiator, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing talks, told POLITICO. Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin said Thursday the government had not yet decided which path it would take. A senior aide to President Emmanuel Macron said the president remained “neutral” on the issue but was keen to see a budget adopted before the end of the month.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

PARIS — French Budget Minister Amélie de Montchalin refused on Thursday to rule out using a controversial constitutional maneuver to pass a state budget for the year, despite her boss’ vow not to do so. France entered 2026 without a proper state budget after talks in parliament broke down in December, and the new year has brought little assurance that the government can put together a package that would pass France’s hung parliament. Given the impasse, some lawmakers have called on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to employ the clause, Article 49.3 of the French constitution, to pass a proper state budget. De Montchalin was asked specifically about that possibility during an interview with radio station RTL, to which she replied: “I am not ruling out anything that could provide France with a budget.” Lawmakers last year voted to effectively roll over the 2025 budget into the new year to avoid a government shutdown, but that stopgap solution does nothing to bring down France’s massive budget deficit. Lecornu promised not to use the clause last year to ensure the immediate survival of his minority center-right government. But using the mechanism now would be risky, and not just because it might look like going back on his word. Employing it would dramatically raise the stakes of the debate, as lawmakers’ only remaining option to block the legislation would be to respond with a no confidence motion that, if successful, would leave France with neither a government nor a proper state budget. The center-left Socialist Party, a member of the opposition that has proven more willing to engage in talks than other parties, said it could refrain from backing a motion of no confidence even if the government were to use Article 49.3, provided the legislation forced through parliament included some of its policy requests.

PARIS — French lawmakers tasked with finding a compromise on the 2026 state budget failed to strike a compromise, all but ensuring France will enter the new year without having finalized its fiscal plans for the next 12 months.   Seven lawmakers from each of France’s two legislative chambers had sat down Friday in a joint committee in search of consensus, but it quickly became clear there was no deal to be had.  Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu in a statement confirmed France would now end the year without a proper state budget and would meet with lawmakers Monday to forge a path forward. Lecornu had warned in November that failing to pass a budget before the end of the year was a “danger” for the French economy. Markets have been eyeing France with concern out of fear it has become too ungovernable to balance the books.  “I regret the lack of willingness on the part of certain parliamentarians to reach an agreement, as we had unfortunately feared for the past few days,” Lecornu said. Lawmakers will now move to pass a stopgap measure that rolls over the 2025 budget into next year and then get back to work on finalizing a 2026 budget in the new year. While that temporary solution will prevent a U.S.-style shutdown, it does nothing to bring down a budget deficit that this year is projected to come in at 5.4 percent of gross domestic product.  Lecornu said in October that the 2026 budget deficit must not exceed 5 percent of GDP.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. It all looked rather bleak for France a little over a week ago, as President Emmanuel Macron’s former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe seemingly wrecked his successor’s deficit-cutting strategy. While Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was working toward a deal with the Socialists in his country’s fractured National Assembly, the 34 centrist lawmakers of Philippe’s Horizons party unceremoniously announced they would abstain or oppose the government in a key vote on the social security budget set to be held Tuesday evening. The eventual narrow win in favor of a relatively generous social security budget, covering pensions, health and welfare, is thus a godsend for Macron’s embattled prime minister — turns out, he may just survive. However, it doesn’t guarantee an agreement on the main state budget before the Dec. 23 deadline, and Lecornu will likely struggle to deliver another surprise victory over the next two weeks. Ahead of Tuesday evening’s final tally, the prime minister made a string of last-minute concessions to the Socialists and the Greens on health spending to get their votes or abstentions. And he eventually succeeded in securing a small majority by 247 to 234 votes. However, to keep next year’s welfare deficit below €20 billion — already up from the €17.5 billion originally proposed — Lecornu transferred an extra subsidy of at least €4.5 billion from the main budget, which covers everything from education to defense. And it remains unclear where exactly this money will be found, while still meeting the government’s promise to reduce France’s overall deficit from 5.4 percent of gross domestic product to “below 5 percent” next year. Still, Lecornu hopes his unlikely success with the social security budget in the National Assembly will create momentum for a deal on the main budget. Moreover, Tuesday’s victory — though limited and hard fought — is without precedent. No previous budget in France’s Fifth Republic has been negotiated and agreed on by an ad hoc coalition of government and opposition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. | Julien De Rosa/AFP via Getty Images The problem is, the prime minister’s concessions to the moderate left — abolishing a planned freeze on pensions and welfare payments, boosting a 2 percent planned increase in health spending to 3 percent, and suspending pension reform — infuriated two of the four parties in his fragile centrist coalition. So, as attention now turns to the main state budget, Lecornu’s balancing act will prove even trickier. Upon its first reading in the National Assembly, this budget was rejected by 404 votes to one. And the French leader will be hard-pressed to find concessions for the moderate left, appease his coalition and keep his promise to reduce the deficit. As France’s third prime minister in the last 12 months, Lecornu has no majority in a National Assembly that’s currently split into 11 groups. In order to avoid a censure motion, he has also promised not to use his government’s special constitutional powers (Article 49.3) to impose legislation without a parliamentary vote, and has so far rejected pressure from within his own camp to reverse that decision. Simply put, using this power and facing censure is not a risk Lecornu is likely to take — especially since he wouldn’t resign if he lost the upcoming budget vote. He would instead argue the rejected budget deal was an attempted compromise and not his responsibility alone. Paradoxically, part of Lecornu’s problem is that he’s now expected to survive. Previously, the center, center right and Socialists agreed to abstain from voting, as they feared a government collapse and snap parliamentary elections in January, right before the important municipal elections in March. But now that this fear has subsided, Philippe and the center right can take the risk of wrecking the budget deal. To that end, Lecornu and his government are now preparing emergency legislation to roll over this year’s budget to keep the French state operational, and lawmakers have been warned they may be called in for a special session to pass such a stopgap budget in late December. According to the ministry of finance, though, if a rolled-over 2025 budget were to last throughout next year, it would push France’s deficit beyond 6 percent of GDP. In fact, even a delay of two or three months could, in theory, significantly weaken efforts to reduce the budget deficit, as under French law, authorities can’t retroactively apply any tax increases that lawmakers eventually approve. Still, it would at least allow Lecornu to hang on and fight another day. But the outlook for France is looking no brighter than before.

PARIS — Foreign pensioners who dream of spending their retirement under the sun in the French Riviera might have to reconsider their plans if their free health care gets axed. France wants non-European Union pensioners who are currently benefitting from the public health care system to start paying for it. It’s a move that would particularly affect American retirees, who have flocked to one of Europe’s most generous welfare states not only for its food, scenery and culture, but also, in some cases, for its world-class free health care. “It is a matter of fairness,” François Gernigon, the lawmaker who put forward the proposal, told POLITICO. “If you are a French citizen and you move to the U.S., you don’t have reciprocity, you don’t benefit from free social security.” Under French law, non-working citizens from outside the EU who have a long-stay visa and can prove they have sufficient pension or capital revenue (more than €23,000 annually) as well as private health care insurance can, after three months, obtain a carte vitale, which gives them free access to public health care. At that point, they can annul their previous private health insurance and benefit from the French one. It’s become a popular choice for U.S. retirees in recent years. But a majority of French lawmakers wants to put an end to that situation and make them pay a minimum contribution. France wants non-European Union pensioners who are currently benefitting from the public health care system to start paying for it. | Stephane de Sakutin/AFP via Getty Images That idea already passed in two branches of the parliament this month during budgetary discussions, and could see the light as soon as next year as the government has also backed it. Gernigon said that even U.S. expats have told him they don’t find the current situation normal and that they are ready to contribute more. Under the latest version of the proposal, as modified by the French Senate, only non-EU citizens who are not paying taxes or contributing to other welfare programs in France would be required to pay the new minimum contribution. Lawmakers have not fixed the contribution amount as it will be up to the government to do it later. For Gernigon, the value could vary depending on the level of health care coverage, but it would still be cheaper than private insurance in the U.S. or abroad which, he said, costs around €300 to €500 per month. The debate comes as France struggles to cut spending and bring down its budget deficit to 5 percent of gross domestic product next year. Gernigon said he had not yet evaluated how much revenue these new contributions would raise, but acknowledged that his main goal is fairness rather than fixing France’s budget problems. “This is not what is going to fill the hole in the social security budget,” he said.

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu blamed partisan cynicism and presidential ambitions for the perilous state of budget negotiations on Monday in his first public remarks since lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected a key portion of next year’s fiscal plans. “Everyone wants to push their own agenda and fly their ideological flag,” Lecornu said in remarks that bore a distinct similarity to those after his surprise resignation last month (he was eventually reappointed to the job.) “Some political parties and candidates in the upcoming election fundamentally believe that compromise is not compatible with their strategy.” Just one lawmaker in the National Assembly on Friday voted in favor of the first half of next year’s budget bill, which deals with tax hikes and other revenue-raising measures. Though a full government shutdown is unlikely — the French government can fall back on a stopgap mechanism that temporarily rolls over the current year’s budget until a new one is adopted — the discord is concerning given Lecornu’s promise to allow lawmakers to debate, amend and vote on a budget as they see fit. In the wake of the Friday vote, Lecornu said he will host party leaders and representatives of labor and trade organizations for talks on key national priorities, among them agriculture, energy, defense spending and deficit reduction. He also restated next year’s final budget with a projected deficit of under 5 percent of GDP. The outcome of these talks could lead to “ad hoc” votes in parliament, Lecornu said, to show that a majority of lawmakers can still find common ground in France’s hung parliament. The first of these votes is expected this week and will concern defense spending. Lecornu is hoping for the budgetary deadlock to be broken with the bill now under review in France’s upper house, the Senate. Lawmakers from both chambers will then convene in a process akin to a U.S.-style conference committee to agree on a joint version of the bill.