Czech President Petr Pavel on Monday officially swore in the country’s new right-wing coalition government led by populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, which could join ranks with Hungary and Slovakia in opposing aid to Ukraine. The appointment ends weeks of uncertainty over whether the president would approve Babiš as Czechia’s new leader. Pavel said last week he would name Babiš prime minister after the tycoon pledged to divest his ownership of Agrofert, an agricultural conglomerate and a major recipient of EU subsidies. Babiš’ comeback (he previously served as PM from 2017 to 2021) poses a fresh headache for Europe as it struggles to finance aid to war-ravaged Ukraine. Over the weekend Babiš came out against a proposal to finance Kyiv via a loan based on Russia’s frozen assets, joining the growing list of countries that have rejected the instrument. “The European Commission must find other ways to finance Ukraine,” Babiš announced Saturday on Facebook. “Our coffers are empty, and we need every crown [unit of Czech currency] we have for our citizens.” The billionaire’s previous term in power was marked by clashes with Brussels over his conflict of interest related to Agrofert. Since then Babiš has steered his ANO party firmly to the right, joined the far-right European Parliament grouping Patriots for Europe, and threatened to cancel a Prague-led ammunition initiative that has delivered over 1 million rounds to Kyiv. Babiš won a parliamentary election in October and proceeded to clinch a coalition deal with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and right-wing Motorists. All three parties share a commitment to rolling back support for climate measures such as the ETS2 emissions trading system, and to opposing Brussels’ plans to ban combustion engines. ANO will hold nine ministerial posts in the new Cabinet, including the premiership, with the Motorists taking four and the SPD three. Speaking at the inauguration ceremony Pavel promised to closely monitor how the incoming government safeguards democratic institutions, including the media, the judiciary and the country’s security forces. Babiš earlier raised concerns about media freedom with his plan to reform public broadcasting by abolishing license fees and funding it through the state budget. The president also noted that Czechia’s key safety and economic guarantees stem from its EU and NATO membership. “That is why we should approach membership in these institutions with the utmost responsibility and be responsible, constructive members rather than rejecters,” Pavel said.

Europe’s populist worries will intensify when right-wing billionaire Andrej Babiš becomes Czech prime minister today. Czech President Petr Pavel is set to appoint Babiš to the position after resolving longstanding conflict-of-interest issues related to the PM-elect’s conglomerate, Agrofert. Babiš and his future government have sparked fears in Brussels, where his opponents worry that alliances he could form at the European level may tilt Central Europe in an anti-establishment direction. Combined with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Babiš has the potential to jam up the legislative machinery in Brussels as it works on key files. Babiš regularly speaks of reviving the so-called Visegrád Four group, something both Orbán and Fico hope for, after it became largely dormant following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A new Visegrád grouping would likely count three rather than the four members it had after being founded as a cultural and political alliance in the 1990s. Poland’s current center-right prime minister, Donald Tusk, is staunchly pro-Ukraine and is thus unlikely to enter any entente with Orbán. Polish President Karol Nawrocki of the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, though, has been talking up the prospects for Visegrád. Babiš’ government — his Patriots for Europe-aligned ANO party is in a coalition with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy and right-wing Motorists for Themselves parties — is also likely to fight against EU-level pro-environment initiatives. That could cause issues for climate files like ETS2, the Emissions Trading System for road and buildings, and Brussels’ bid to ban combustion engines. Czech President Petr Pavel is set to appoint Andrej Babiš to the position after resolving longstanding conflict-of-interest issues related to the PM-elect’s conglomerate, Agrofert. | Martin Divisek/EPA Following his decisive victory in the Czech election Oct. 3-4, however, Babiš has toned down his previous remarks about canceling the Czech ammunition initiative in support of Ukraine, raising questions about whether the campaign rhetoric will translate into actual policy reversals. The extent to which Czechia becomes another EU disrupter might become clearer later this week as Babiš travels to Brussels to take part in the European Council — assuming the rest of his cabinet is appointed by then.

Czech right-wing billionaire Andrej Babiš will be the new prime minister in Prague after announcing Thursday evening that he would dispose of a potential conflict of interest. Babiš’ ANO party won the Czech parliamentary election in October and formed a coalition with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy and right-wing Motorists for Themselves parties. But the proposed prime minister and coalition ministers must be green-lit by Czech President Petr Pavel before taking office. Babiš has been entangled in legal woes, both at home and abroad, concerning his agriculture business empire Agrofert, which is a major recipient of EU subsidies. “Of course, I could have left politics after winning the election and had a comfortable life, or ANO could have appointed someone else as prime minister,” Babiš said Thursday night in a video address to voters. “But I am convinced that you would perceive it as a betrayal,” he added. “That is why I have decided to irrevocably give up the Agrofert company, with which I will no longer have anything to do, I will never own it, I will not have any economic relations with it, and I will not be in any contact with it.” Babiš’ ascension to the Czech premiership further tilts Central Europe in an anti-establishment direction, as the populist tycoon joins Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico as potential thorns in Brussels’ side on key EU files. In stepping back from Agrofert, however, Babiš made clear the importance of retaking the prime ministerial role. The holding’s shares will now be managed through a trust structure by an independent administrator. “This step, which goes far beyond the requirements of the law, was not easy for me. I have been building my company for almost half my life and I am very sorry that I will also have to step down as chairman of the Agrofert Foundation,” Babiš said. “My children will only get Agrofert after my death,” he added. In response, Pavel announced that he would appoint Babiš as prime minister on Dec. 9. Andrej Babiš has been entangled in legal woes, both at home and abroad, concerning his agriculture business empire Agrofert, which is a major recipient of EU subsidies. | Gabriel Kuchta/Getty Images “I appreciate the clear and understandable manner in which Andrej Babiš has fulfilled our agreement and publicly announced how he will resolve his conflict of interest,” Pavel said. Pavel previously noted that strong pro-NATO and pro-EU stances, along with safeguarding the country’s democratic institutions, will be key factors in his decision-making regarding the proposed Cabinet. Czech conflict of interest law bars officials (or their close relatives) from owning or controlling a business that would create a conflict with their governing function. This doesn’t mean ministers can’t own businesses, just that they must prioritize the public interest over their own. Similar rules exist at the EU level. When he was prime minister the first time round, from 2017 to 2021, Babiš placed Agrofert — which consists of more than 250 companies — in trust funds, but the Czech courts as well as the European Commission in 2021 concluded that he still retained influence over them and was therefore in violation of EU conflict-of-interest rules.

Czech President Petr Pavel said that populist politician Filip Turek is not a suitable pick to be Prague’s environment minister — unless he explains himself over a series of controversies. “These objections stem mainly from what is being discussed in the public sphere. Of course, I respect the fact that we have the presumption of innocence, that Filip Turek is not being prosecuted. But we do expect a bit more from politicians than just not being in conflict with the law,” Pavel told Czech TV on Monday. Turek, honorary president of the right-wing populist Motorists for Themselves party, part of the government coalition, has faced allegations of sexual assault from an ex-girlfriend, which he calls “absurd,” and of making racist, sexist and homophobic comments on Facebook, which he denies. Police are investigating both matters.  “I think at the very least it’s necessary for Filip Turek to explain absolutely thoroughly and responsibly everything that’s going on around him, because otherwise it creates the impression that he really isn’t a suitable person for any ministerial position,” Pavel added. Pavel stopped short of confirming whether he would use the constitutional veto to block Turek’s appointment. In an earlier statement, Pavel said that he would refuse nominees advocating for Czechia’s withdrawal from NATO or the EU, noting that protecting democratic institutions remains another crucial criterion for him. Pavel will this week hold one-to-one discussions with the proposed ministers introduced last week by election winner Andrej Babiš. Turek is not the only candidate facing scrutiny. Babiš’ own potential appointment as prime minister has raised concerns, particularly over a possible conflict of interest related to his ownership of the Agrofert agricultural empire. Pavel said he is prepared to appoint Babiš within a week, provided he clarifies how he plans to dispose of the potential conflict. Babiš has so far not announced his proposed solution to the issue, but said selling Agrofert is out of the question.

Czechia’s populist figurehead Andrej Babiš on Wednesday unveiled a governing coalition of mavericks, from a motormouth racing driver to the former frontman of a funk-rock group. Now the real horse trading begins. The country’s president, Petr Pavel, ultimately appoints the prime minister and the Cabinet — and he is allowed to say no to the proposals from Babiš, who won the Czech election in October. Pavel — who will begin individual consultations Friday with proposed ministers — previously noted that strong pro-NATO and pro-EU stances, along with safeguarding the country’s democratic institutions, will be key factors in his decision-making. Babiš, despite legal troubles of his own, is still on track to be the next Czech PM after sealing his coalition deal with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy and right-wing Motorists for Themselves parties. After the big coalition reveal, POLITICO highlights some of the most controversial ministers set to make up Prague’s populist government. FILIP TUREK — THE RACING DRIVER PROBED BY POLICE Filip Turek, the face of the Motorists party who has courted controversy ever since being elected as a member of the European Parliament last year, was selected to be Czechia’s new environment minister. He’s faced allegations of sexual assault from an ex-girlfriend, which he calls “absurd,” and making racist, sexist, and homophobic comments on Facebook, which he denies. Police are investigating both matters. A former racing driver, he has also made a name for himself as a keen collector of expensive cars and the founder and chairman of Czechia’s Jaguar Club. Turek has voted against green legislation in the European Parliament as an MEP for the right-wing Patriots for Europe group, from tighter rules on genetically modified crops to restrictions on combustion-engine cars. Turek also backed efforts to water down the EU’s incoming deforestation regulation (EUDR), arguing that he wants to ensure “that EU policies do not undermine industrial competitiveness through overly restrictive environmental measures.” Babiš told reporters Wednesday at Prague Castle that Pavel “still has a problem with Mr. Turek,” who is considered to be the most polarizing ministerial nominee. PETR MACINKA — THE CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTIC Petr Macinka, leader of the Motorists party, has been selected as foreign minister. He made a bold symbolic entrance when meeting the president on Oct. 6 in a massive Ram 1500 pickup, signaling his opposition to the EU’s Green Deal and the 2035 combustion engine ban. Last year, Macinka said that if his party makes it into the government “green blood will run,” and recently stated that “the idea that humans are the sole cause of climate change is funny.” He wants to leave the Paris climate agreement and roll back protection for the Soutok protected landscape area, part of the so-called Moravian Amazon. Macinka is a supporter of the transatlantic military alliance, admitting on the campaign trail that his only fear is “the stirring up of sentiments about leaving NATO, because NATO isn’t some organization that tries to educate us, it’s a defense pact that ensures collective security.” In Ukraine, Macinka has tried to project a clear pro-Western, anti-Russian line — but Turek’s position on Ukraine continues to weaken the party’s credibility, as he recently told POLITICO that he wants to slash military aid to Kyiv and pursue a noninterventionist approach to avoid any escalation with Moscow. OTO KLEMPÍŘ — THE ROCK STAR TURNED POLITICIAN Another incoming minister, Oto Klempíř, has drawn criticism from 500 Czech artists, who signed an open letter opposing any Motorists party candidate leading the culture ministry, fearing it could threaten artistic freedom and echo developments in neighboring Slovakia. Filip Turek has voted against green legislation in the European Parliament as an MEP for the right-wing Patriots for Europe group, from tighter rules on genetically modified crops to restrictions on combustion-engine cars. | Martin Divisek/EPA Bratislava’s culture ministry, under the populist government of Prime Minister Robert Fico, slashed funding for independent cultural institutions and transformed the country’s national broadcaster, RTVS, into a new entity under political control. “The party Motorists for Themselves … offers a dismantling of what currently works within the cultural sector. It rejects a series of measures aimed at improving working conditions in culture and explicitly expresses distrust toward the grant system and independent expert committees — raising concerns about potential political control over artistic production,” the letter read. Klempíř, an artist himself and former frontman of the well-known Czech funk-rock band J.A.R., was dismissed from the band in August after announcing his candidacy for the Motorists. The potential minister urged his critics to wait and see how he performed in the culture role, in a social media post in mid-October. MARTIN ŠEBESTYÁN — THE SMALL FARMERS’ NIGHTMARE Martin Šebestyán, an independent expert nominated by SPD, who is on deck to be Czechia’s next agriculture minister, has a history with Babiš’ company Agrofert, having overseen Common Agricultural Policy subsidy distributions as head of the State Agricultural Intervention Fund. Last year, Petr Macinka (right) said that if his party makes it into the government “green blood will run,” and recently stated that “the idea that humans are the sole cause of climate change is funny.” | Martin Divisek/EPA He is currently the head of the the Initiative of Agricultural and Food Enterprises, which brings together the largest agricultural concerns in the country (including Agrofert). Smaller farmers are warning against Šebestyán’s nomination. “It is difficult to imagine a greater denial of the legitimate interests of farmers than the active nomination of Martin Šebestyán to the role of representative of the ministry of agriculture,” said Jaroslav Šebek, the chairman of the Association of Private Farming, in a statement to POLITICO. The biggest agriculture unions support him getting the post, however. In 2021, the European Commission ruled that Babiš, prime minister at the time, had a conflict of interest as he continued to control Agrofert and its subsidies despite placing his assets in trusts. Although Czechia wasn’t required to repay the EU funds, the state absorbed the loss, and in August this year the agriculture ministry ordered Agrofert to return €200 million in subsidies. Critics fear the recovery effort could stall with Šebestyán in the agriculture post. Šebestyán declined to comment to multiple Czech outlets that have written about him since the election. ANDREJ BABIŠ — THE MAN HIMSELF Babiš remains mired in controversy, particularly over an ongoing €2 million EU subsidy fraud case. He is suspected by Czech authorities of fiddling ownership documents so that his agriculture empire Agrofert qualifies to receive subsidies intended for medium-sized businesses. After his earlier acquittal was overturned by Prague’s High Court in June, he now awaits a new verdict from the district court. Regardless of what the court decides, Babiš’ ownership of Agrofert remains a potential conflict of interest that could prevent the president appointing him as prime minister unless he can prove there’s no conflict. He is also being investigated in France over allegations he used shell companies to buy property and a luxury château on the French Riviera in 2009, a revelation that came to light as part of the Pandora Papers exposé. Babiš denies all the allegations.

Andrej Babiš, the right-wing populist who on Monday formed Czechia’s next government, wants to derail EU plans on curbing emissions, according to the government’s coalition program, seen by POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook. Babiš and his ANO movement formed a coalition with the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party and the nationalist Freedom and Direct Democracy. Babiš is expected to make his return to the European Council table at the next gathering of EU leaders in Brussels on Dec. 18-19. Critics fear that Czechia could become a new bête noire for the EU alongside Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Robert Fico’s Slovakia. “I believe that if we look at his statements and his allies in Europe — like Viktor Orbán and what he has done with Hungary — he [Babiš] will start pushing the Czech Republic toward the margins,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský told POLITICO. While Babiš still needs to be formally nominated as prime minister by the Czech president, he already has grand plans for his EU comeback: unraveling the bloc’s green policies. “The Green Deal is unsustainable in its current form, which is why we will promote its fundamental revision,” the draft coalition program reads.   The new government plans to push back against the implementation of a new market that would put a price on heating and fuel emissions (dubbed ETS2). The new emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the EU’s efforts to slash planet-warming emissions from the building and transport sectors and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The Czech plan also states the government “will initiate a European-level reassessment” of the original emissions trading scheme, ETS1, which covers pollution from heavy industries and the energy sector. EU governments have already voted in favor of ETS2 and it is due to come into effect in 2027. However, the draft Czech government program includes a threat not to enact the rules: “In the case of ETS2 emission allowances for households and transport, we are prepared not to implement this system into Czech legislation and to prevent highly negative social impacts on society.” The draft also reveals that a future Babiš government views an EU ban on the sale and production of cars with combustion engines from 2035 as “unacceptable.” “The European Union has its limits — it does not have the right to impose decisions on member states that interfere with their internal sovereignty,” the draft reads. The ban was approved in 2023 by all member countries (despite last-minute resistance from Germany) but has proven controversial. Babiš is not alone in wanting to challenge EU Green Deal rules. The previous Czech government also requested a delay in ETS2 implementation, and Estonia called for it to be scrapped. Babiš may find an ally in Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who trumpeted his success in inserting a “revision clause” into the EU plans to extend a carbon-trading system at a leaders’ gathering last month.  While the revision clause demanded by EU leaders does not explicitly call for a weaker ETS2, Tusk believes it will open the door to a delay of the measure. Babiš intends to personally oversee EU policy — abolishing the role of minister for European affairs and placing responsibility for EU matters in a department “subordinate” to the prime minister. The parties in the coalition will be expected to sign off on the government program. Then comes a period of wrangling as Babiš is expected to try to install Filip Turek, the controversial honorary president of the Motorists’ party, as foreign minister — a move President Petr Pavel may oppose, according to an EU diplomat.  Czech news outlet Deník N reported last month that Turek — a former member of the European Parliament and racing driver — had made racist, sexist and homophobic comments on Facebook before entering politics. Turek denied being behind the posts in a video posted on Facebook.

Czechia’s likely next prime minister, populist Andrej Babiš, on Monday signed a coalition agreement with the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and right-wing Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě) parties. The coalition will hold 108 out of 200 seats in parliament’s lower house. ANO holds 80 seats, with SPD on 15 and the Motorists on 13. Babiš is a billionaire agricultural tycoon whose success in recent parliamentary elections has sparked fear in Brussels, and among his opponents, over antiestablishment alliances he could form at European level. And despite domestic concerns the mogul might have a potential business conflict of interest, Czech President Petr Pavel tapped Babiš to form the government last week — a step toward being officially nominated as prime minister-designate. Babiš and his right-wing populist ANO movement are likely the least radical party in the future government, which looks set to scale back support for the EU’s migration and climate initiatives like ETS2, the emissions trading system, and fight against Brussels’ bid to ban combustion engines. Following the Czech election in early October, the car-centric Motorists came under the political spotlight after their prospective foreign minister, Filip Turek, was embroiled in a scandal over alleged racist, sexist and homophobic comments posted on his Facebook account before he entered politics. Turek denied being behind the posts in a video posted on Facebook. Babiš’ potential environment minister and chairman of the Motorists, Petr Macinka, also sparked a backlash after he downplayed the human impact on climate change by claiming it is “pure propaganda.” Once a coalition of at least 101 seats in the Chamber of Deputies is established in Prague, the president appoints the prime minister and other ministers proposed by the prime minister, but the government must still win a vote of confidence among lawmakers within 30 days.

Czechia’s likely next prime minister Andrej Babiš may act as a “puppet” of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán at the European leaders’ table, harming the country’s standing on the world stage, said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský. Babiš, a populist tycoon who was reelected earlier this month but has yet to form a government, stated after his victory that he would not be seeking confrontation with the European Union. But for Lipavský, who’s part of Czechia’s outgoing government, the likely incoming prime minister is set to follow in the footsteps of his political ally Orbán, who is at odds with Brussels and the EU mainstream on everything from the rule of law to support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Babiš “will not behave like [an] Orbán figure,” Lipavský said in an interview with POLITICO ahead of a gathering of European leaders on Thursday. “He will behave like Orbán’s puppet. That’s a big difference. To behave like Orbán and be someone’s puppet. And he will be all about [being a] puppet.” Babiš won’t be at the European Council gathering, where Czechia will be represented by outgoing Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Babiš is negotiating with two right-wing parties to form a government and, according to a person aware of his thinking, intends to make debut at an upcoming European leaders’ summit in December. When Babiš does return, Lipavský warned, he could be under the influence of two hard-right parties at home — which he described as “MAGA style” and resembling the far-right Alternative for Germany party — and was likely to be acting in concert with Orbán as part of a “Visegrad” coalition. “I feel that Andrej Babiš … is living in his dream of strong leader banging with shoe to the table, saying no, vetoing things and [pretending to bring] back some benefits from Europe to to Czechia. But the real European politics do not work this way,” Lipavský said in the interview, which took place on the sidelines of a foreign ministers’ gathering in Luxembourg. In the past few years, Czechia has been one of Ukraine’s most vocal supporters on the EU stage, launching an ammunition scheme which has pooled resources from across the bloc to deliver more than 3 million shells to Kyiv. Prague has also taken some of Europe’s toughest measures to limit the movements of Russian diplomats in and out of the country. Andrej Babiš stated after his victory that he would not be seeking confrontation with the European Union. | Ricardo Rubio/Getty Images But this stance was likely to change under Babis in a way that would negatively affect Czechia’s reputation among countries opposed to Russia, said Lipavský. “I am very pessimistic that Czechia will keep its place on the world stage in terms of support to Ukraine, because he’s [Babiš] is criticizing the ammunition initiative,” said the foreign minister. He’s saying that he will not provide any new money for Ukraine,” he added. He went on: “It’s difficult to say what will be the final platform of the new government, but I’m afraid that it will destroy our international reputation because of anti-Ukrainian statements.” Babiš’s populist style of politics has won him comparisons to U.S. President Donald Trump. His ally, Orbán, has often touted his special ties to the United States as proof that Hungary’s go-it-alone European policy is working. For Lipavský, however, the chances of a rapprochement between Czechia and Washington under Babiš were slim due to his reluctance to spend more on defense — a key demand of Trump for his European NATO allies. “Babiš attacks, for example, the procurement of [U.S.-made] F-35, the best plane in the world. We are procuring it and he wants to give it away,” said Lipavský. “He’s promised so many things to people like on social welfare. And the only source is debt or money, which our government has put into increasing military expenditure,” he went on. “Donald Trump is saying: ‘Spend more money on defense.’ What will Andrej Babiš do? Most likely spend less money on defense.” “I don’t see that it will help to the relationship with the USA. It will do the otherwise. We will be perceived maybe like Spain in that way.”

Talks on forming a Czech government have been thrown into chaos after a front-runner to get the foreign minister job was engulfed in a scandal over social media comments. The Motorists for Themselves (Motoristé sobě) party threatened to walk away from negotiations with the right-wing populist ANO, of likely next prime minister Andrej Babiš, and the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) over the issue. The Czech news outlet Deník N over the weekend reported that Filip Turek of the Motorists party — a former member of the European Parliament, racing driver and candidate to be foreign minister — had made racist, sexist and homophobic comments on Facebook before entering politics. Turek denied being behind the posts in a video posted on Facebook. “I absolutely reject the idea that I would have created something like that, written it, or even had such a thought. This has crossed all boundaries,” Turek said in the video. Police are now investigating the posts, and the Motorists said they are filing a criminal complaint against Deník N. Motorists’ party chairman Petr Macinka on Monday threatened to blow up the ongoing coalition talks. “I’m not looking for a replacement for Filip Turek,” Macinka said on Sunday on Czech TV program “Otázky Václava Moravce”. `”Either we’ll be in the government, or we’ll be in the opposition — there is no third option.” Romea, an organization that works on behalf of the Roma community, started a petition urging ANO chairman Babiš and Czech President Petr Pavel not to nominate Turek as a Cabinet minister. Pavel, who will have to officially appoint the ministers, said that if the authenticity of the posts is confirmed, it would be “a major problem.” Turek has been embroiled in several scandals since he entered politics and won a seat in the European Parliament last year. He has been investigated over an image that appeared to show him making a Nazi salute and also over allegations by his ex-girlfriend, who accused him of rape and abuse. Turek denied all the allegations, calling them “absurd.” Babiš, who secured a decisive victory in the Czech election earlier this month, aims to form a government with the support of the SPD and the Motorists. Without the Motorists’ backing, he would lack a majority in parliament, unless parties that previously refused to cooperate with him reconsider their position. He plans to meet both Turek and Macinka later Monday.

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe. “I don’t know what happened,” said French economist Jean Pisani-Ferry recently, lamenting President Emmanuel Macron’s unraveling grand centrist project. His bewilderment is shared by disoriented centrists across the continent, all wondering how the ground has yielded under their feet as the tectonic plates of European politics continue to relentlessly shift, throwing the familiar into disarray. But could this be the point of no return? The first of the latest tremors was the political comeback of Czech populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a self-proclaimed Trumpist and Euroskeptic agitator. His ANO party grabbed 35 percent of the vote in the country’s parliamentary elections last Sunday, leaving Petr Fiala’s pro-Western coalition behind at 23 percent. Though falling short of an overall majority, Babiš — who lambasted the current center-right government for giving “Czech mothers nothing, and Ukrainians everything” — will no doubt relish teaming up with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and the far-right parties of the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament to disrupt any centrist “more Europe” policies. And seeking to tug the country away from supporting Ukraine, he has already pledged to scrap Czech ammunition supplies to Kyiv. Then, on Monday, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just hours after appointing a cabinet, plunging the country deeper into a political quagmire with its fractious parliament and lame-duck president in a political system designed by Charles de Gaulle for a powerful head of state. Macron has appointed and lost five prime ministers in two years and is still floundering. Could we be seeing the death throes of the Fifth Republic? At the end of the week, there will likely be more bad news for centrists in Portugal as well. Chega, the party of “God, fatherland and family” that in May became the official opposition, is set to do well in the country’s local elections — a harbinger of things to come. These are indeed heady, giddy times for national-conservative populists — and they’re celebrating as their rivals remain confounded. The outcome of the Czech election prompted the top populist leaders from across the continent to take to social media — including Orbán, Denmark’s Anders Vistisen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, Austria’s Harald Vilimsky, France’s Marine Le Pen and Italy’s Matteo Salvini. “All across Europe, patriotic parties are being called to power by the people, who long to reclaim their freedom and prosperity!” Le Pen posted on X. But how did we get here? In the summer of 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had crowed the “center is holding.” Following European Parliament elections that saw right-wing populists and national conservatives make serious inroads but fall short of the huge surge they were expecting, it seemed voters still largely backed centrists. The first of the latest tremors was the political comeback of Czech populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a self-proclaimed Trumpist and Euroskeptic agitator. | Martin Divisek/EPA But von der Leyen was being complacent — a common characteristic of mainstream centrists from both the left and right since Brexit and U.S. President Donald Trump’s first election in 2016. Centrists were too quick to dismiss both Brexit and Trump’s first term as aberrations. The world would right itself, they said. Even as late as 2023, the Global Progress Action Summit in Montreal — a gathering of center-left politicians — saw boisterous talk of another possible “progressive moment,” with the Third Way politics shaped by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and former U.S. President Bill Clinton a quarter-century ago cited as an example. But since those first populist shifts, the centrist crack-up has grown more apparent to everyone else. The British Labour Party’s general election win in 2024 was an outlier — testimony to the unpopularity of the Conservatives rather than an embrace of Prime Minister Keir Starmer or an indication of a political trend. And U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2020 win seemed more like a pause in the crumbling of the ancien régime. Meanwhile, centrists on both the left and right have made too many excuses, without nearly enough rigorous self-analysis or readiness to challenge group-think or shibboleths. Instead, they’ve muttered about “deplorables” and blamed their setbacks on populists weaponizing issues like net zero, immigration, cultural disorientation, identity anxieties and the cost-of-living squeeze. They’ve easily reached for Russian disinformation and demagogic manipulation to explain away their misfortunes — talking almost as though the here-and-now challenges and fears faced by ordinary families are made up or overblown. And they haven’t been able to ease the nagging widespread sense that the West is in a doom-loop of structural decline and lacks the political will to correct. Centrists have consistently failed to understand that the jolts taking place under their feet were forewarnings of even bigger political earthquakes to come as the world changed. Now demoralized, either too laggardly to rethink policies or too quick to dress themselves in populist clothes — as Starmer’s Labour government is now trying to do with tougher immigration rules — more cracks are surely to come. Why vote for copycats when you can vote for the real thing? In Germany, for example, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s asylum crackdown has done nothing to stem the rising popularity of the hard-right Alternative for Germany party — at least in opinion polls. Merz’s approval ratings are dismal this month, with 70 percent of Germans unhappy with his performance. So are national conservatives now unstoppable? Maybe so, until the tectonic plates settle. Or at least until they’re exposed as having no real answers to the immense challenges of Europe’s anemic economic growth, poor competitiveness and massive public debt.