Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is a senior fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s From Across the Pond column. Like many, I used to believe that former U.S. President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was the biggest strategic mistake America had made, at least since the Vietnam War. That is, until now. U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in a war against Iran is a far bigger strategic error, and one with far bigger strategic consequences. The reasons for this are many, ranging from the immediate impact on the region and the global economy to the longer-term upshots for Russia and China, as well as the repercussions for U.S. alliances and America’s global standing. That much is already clear — and we’re only three weeks in. Let’s start with the similarities: Much like the Iraq War, the war against Iran began based on the presumption that the regime in power would swiftly fall and that a new, more moderate and less antagonistic one would take its place. In both instances, the idea was to remove the greatest destabilizing threat in the Middle East — Saddam Hussein’s regime in the initial case, the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran in the latter — through the swift and decisive use of military force. But while Bush understood that defeating a regime required ground forces, it seems Trump simply hoped that airpower alone would suffice. As a result, Hussein’s regime fell swiftly — though Bush did vastly underestimate what would be required to rebuild a stable, let alone a democratic, Iraq in its place. But the Iranian government, as U.S. intelligence officials themselves have testified, “appears to be intact” despite Israel killing many of its key political and security leaders through targeted strikes. Focusing on the region at large, Bush’s misjudgment eventually contributed to a large-scale insurgency, which strengthened Iran’s influence in Iraq and the wider Middle East. In contrast, Trump’s miscalculation has left in place a regime that, aside from assuring its own survival, is now singularly focused on inflicting as much damage on the U.S. and its allies as it possibly can. Iranian drones and missiles have already attacked Israel and the Gulf states, targeted critical energy production facilities and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which hosts one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas export transits. The Salalah oil storage fire in Oman is pictured on March 13, 2026. | Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2026 Less than a month in, the world is now witnessing the largest oil and gas disruption in history. And as the fighting escalates to include gas and oil production infrastructure, the global economic consequences will be felt by every single country for months, if not years, to come — even if the conflict were to end soon. The damage that has already been inflicted on the global economy is far greater than the economic consequences of the Iraq War in its entirety. But that’s not all. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Israel war with Iran will also have far greater reverberations than the war in Iraq ever did. For one, the Bush administration spent a lot of time and effort trying to get allies on board to participate in and support the war. It didn’t fully succeed in this, as key allies like Germany and France continued opposing the war. But it tried. Trump, by contrast, didn’t even try to get America’s most important allies on board. Not only that, he even failed to inform them of his decision. And yet, when Iran responded predictably by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. president then demanded allies send their navies to escort tankers — despite the U.S. Navy so far refusing to do so. And while it’s true that Iraq left many U.S. allies — even those that joined the war, like the U.K. — deeply scarred, Iran has convinced U.S. allies they can no longer rely on the U.S., and that Washington is now a real threat to their economic security. That, too, will have a lasting impact well beyond anything the war in Iraq did. Finally, the fact remains that when Bush decided to invade Iraq, Russia and China were still minor global powers. Russian President Vladimir Putin was only just starting his effort to stabilize the economy and rebuild Russia’s military power, while China had just joined the World Trade Organization and was still a decade or more away from becoming an economic superpower. In other words, America’s blunder in Iraq occurred at a time when the strategic consequences for the global balance of power were still manageable. Trump’s Iran debacle is occurring at a time when China is effectively competing with the U.S. for global power and influence, and Russia is engaged in the largest military action in Europe since the end of World War II. A woman sifts through the rubble in her house in Tehran, Iran on March 15, 2026 after it was damaged by missile attacks two days before. | Majid Saeedi/Getty Images Both stand to benefit greatly. Russia is the short-term winner here. Oil prices are rising, generating more than $150 million per day in extra income for Moscow to feed its war machine. The U.S. is relaxing its sanctions against Russia in a vain attempt to stall prices from ballooning at the pump. All the while, Ukraine is being left to contend with Russia’s missile and drone attacks without the advanced defensive weaponry that’s now being used to protect Israel and the Gulf instead. China, meanwhile, is watching as the U.S. diverts its military forces from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, where they will likely remain for months, if not years. These forces include a carrier strike group, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system from Korea, and a Marine Expeditionary Force from Japan. And while a disruption in oil and gas supply will be a short-term problem for Beijing too, China’s rapid transition to renewables and close alignment with energy-rich Russia will leave it well placed to confidently confront the future. Bush and Trump both came to office determined to avoid the mistaken wars of their predecessors. Nevertheless, they both embarked on military adventures fed by a hubristic belief in American power. But while the U.S. was strong enough — and its adversaries still weak enough — to recoup much of the damage inflicted by Bush’s war, the war unfolding in Iran today will leave behind an America that will have lost much of its global power, standing and influence, destined to confront rising adversaries all on its own.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music In der Linkspartei tobt ein bitterer Kampf um die Deutung des Nahostkonflikts. Während die „alte Garde“ um Gregor Gysi den Schutz Israels als Staatsräson verteidigt , formiert sich an der Basis und in Landesverbänden wie Niedersachsen ein radikaler antizionistischer Flügel. Wie die Parteispitze versucht, das zu moderieren und dabei womöglich den moralischen Kompass verliert, analysiert Gordon Repinski. Janis Ehling, Bundesgeschäftsführer der Linken, stellt sich im 200-Sekunden-Interview der Frage, wie tief der Riss wirklich geht und wie man in der Partei eine klare Grenze zum Antisemitismus ziehen und gleichzeitig wieder zusammen finden kann. In Brüssel beginnt ein entscheidender EU-Gipfel unter extremem Zeitdruck. Kanzler Friedrich Merz und Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron müssen ihre Differenzen beiseite legen, um den „Dauer-Blockierer“ Viktor Orbán zur Freigabe der 90-Milliarden-Hilfen für die Ukraine zu bewegen. Hans von der Burchard berichtet aus Brüssel über den deutsch-französischen Motor, die Drohungen von Donald Trump und die europäische Antwort auf die eskalierende Lage im Iran. Unseren Podcasts ⁠„Inside AfD“ findet ihr hier⁠ und ⁠„Power & Policy“ hier⁠. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Zwei Wochen nach Beginn der US-Invasion im Iran treten die massiven globalen Nebenwirkungen zutage. Während Donald Trump durch die Lockerung der Sanktionen gegen russisches Öl die Ukraine-Front schwächt, entstehen im Nahen Osten völlig neue Zweckbündnisse. Gordon Repinski analysiert gemeinsam mit der Strategie-Expertin Florence Gaub (NATO Defense College), warum die USA derzeit eher operationell getrieben als strategisch klug handeln und welche langfristigen Dominoeffekte dieser Einsatz für die europäische Sicherheitsarchitektur hat. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joined the leaders of Germany and Norway on Friday in criticizing the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil, exposing a public split between Washington and key NATO allies. At a joint press conference in Bardufoss, Norway, where the three leaders were attending the 14-nation NATO exercise Cold Response, Carney, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz argued that sanctions relief would weaken efforts to force Russia to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The three NATO leaders were publicly breaking with Washington over the Trump administration’s decision to ease some sanctions on Russian oil. The split came as the U.S. took part in NATO wargaming in Norway’s Arctic region meant to demonstrate allied resolve against Russia as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Merz said he was surprised to wake up Friday to the U.S. decision, “which was obviously taken in D.C. last night.” Echoing Støre, the German leader added: “We should put more pressure on Russia.” Carney aligned Canada with that position. “Entirely agree. Canada’s position is to maintain sanctions on Russia … including on the shadow fleet, which is moving this oil,” the prime minister said, as the three leaders spoke against a backdrop of heavy military armament. “There’s been very tight cooperation between Russia and Iran, at great cost to the people of Ukraine and a great threat to peace and security in Europe. And this group, under the leadership of the two gentlemen to my right, and a broader coalition — Coalition of the Willing — has stood up to that,” Carney added. The U.S. temporarily lifted some of its Russia sanctions late Thursday in an effort to bring down energy prices as the conflict in the Middle East drags on. It would allow the delivery and sale of Russian oil stranded at sea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the decision on Friday as “not very logical.” “The lifting of sanctions means that [Russia] will receive more money and there will be more drone attacks” in the Middle East, Zelenskyy said, standing alongside French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. “Russia will get money for its war machine, and there are a lot of drones that are built on Russian soil to destabilize the Middle East,” he added. In northern Norway, the three leaders were asked whether the U.S. could be “trusted” as a partner on northern security. “Yes,” replied Støre, without hesitation, followed by Carney. Carney went on to describe the close and historic military cooperation between Canada and the U.S. through NORAD, the joint North American air defense command. Støre said security cooperation in the Arctic was in the U.S’ domestic self-interest, calling it a “net positive for the security of the United States.” But when pressed on whether the decision by the U.S. to ease Russian oil sanctions changes that, the Norwegian leader gave a blunt reply. “We have made it clear that we disagree with that decision. And, you know, disagreements appear among countries. Let’s be honest about that,” Støre said.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Zwischen Kyjiw und Budapest droht der endgültige Bruch. Während Viktor Orbán im Europäischen Rat womöglich kommende Woche die Freigabe von 90 Milliarden Euro an EU-Hilfen blockiert, bezeichnet Wolodymyr Selenskyj ihn ⁠im Exklusiv-Interview mit POLITICO⁠ als „Verbündeten Russlands“. Gordon Repinski berichtet von der aufgeladenen Stimmung im Präsidentenpalast und analysiert gemeinsam mit Rixa Fürsen, wie Selenskyjs „Plan B“ aussieht, um das ungarische Veto zu umgehen. Kanzler Friedrich Merz ist derweil am nördlichen Polarkreis. Begleitet von Verteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius geht es in Norwegen um weit mehr als nur diplomatische Höflichkeit. Zwischen NATO-Übungen und dem Besuch eines Weltraumbahnhofs stehen ein U-Boot-Deal mit Kanada sowie die europäische Unabhängigkeit in der Satellitentechnik auf der Agenda. Hans von der Burchard begleitet den Kanzler auf dieser Reise und ordnet ein, ob Norwegen als wichtigster Energielieferant gerade jetzt eine Lebensversicherung für die deutsche Wirtschaftswende sein könnte. Deutschland gibt Teile der strategischen Ölreserve frei und führt eine tägliche Preis-Obergrenze an den Tankstellen ein. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview erklärt Justiz- und Verbraucherschutzministerin Stefanie Hubig (SPD), was die Preisobergrenze bringen soll und ob deutschen Autofahrern bei anhaltender Krise im Nahen Osten bald doch mit einer echten Preisbremse geholfen wird. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von Amazon: Unabhängige Verkaufspartner stehen heute für über 60 % aller bei Amazon verkauften Produkte. Ein Beispiel ist Alphatrail aus Regensburg: Michael und sein Team haben ihre Leidenschaft in ein erfolgreich wachsendes Unternehmen verwandelt. Über Amazon bietet Alphatrail Radsport-Fans in ganz Europa erstklassige Ausrüstung und Zubehör. Sie sind eines von rund 47.000 deutschen kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen bei Amazon. Erfahren Sie mehr darüber auf AboutAmazon.de.**

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is urging Europe to find a way around Hungary. In an interview with POLITICO’s Gordon Repinski, Zelenskyy called on EU leaders to come up with a “Plan B” to secure Ukraine’s long-term funding — and to work around what he described as the “blackmail” of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is holding up a promised €90 billion EU loan (listen to full interview here). Host Zoya Sheftalovich and policy editor Sarah Wheaton break down the tensions inside the EU and what options Europe may have if Hungary continues to block support for Kyiv, as Orbán has repeatedly complicated EU decisions on Ukraine. Also on the podcast: The EU is moving toward banning AI “nudification” tools after a scandal involving Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot showed how easily AI can generate sexualized deepfakes of real people. Plus: Eurovision politics. Belgian artists and activists are planning an alternative music event during Eurovision week to protest Israel’s participation in the contest. If you have questions for us, or want to share what you think about the show, you can reach us on our WhatsApp at +32 491 05 06 29. **A message from Amazon: Across Europe, businesses are growing with the AWS Cloud to build innovative, scalable products. From Europe’s largest enterprises and government agencies to the continent’s fastest growing startups, learn more about how AWS Cloud is helping businesses across Europe grow at AWS.eu.**

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Gordon Repinski den ukrainischen Präsidenten Wolodymyr Selenskyj im Mariinsky-Palast zum Exklusiv-Interview getroffen. Selenskyj spricht über seinen persönlichen Hass auf Wladimir Putin, die „Blackmail“-Taktik von Viktor Orbán und seine Sorge, dass der Iran-Krieg den Fokus des Westens dauerhaft verschiebt. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview direkt aus dem Zug berichtet Bundestagspräsidentin Julia Klöckner von ihrem Besuch in Kyjiw, der Lieferung von Dieselgeneratoren und der Frage, wie Deutschland die Ukraine militärisch stützen kann, während die USA bei den Russland-Sanktionen wanken. Deutschland gibt Teile der strategischen Ölreserve frei. Gleichzeitig plant Wirtschaftsministerin Katherina Reiche eine tägliche Preisobergrenze für Tankstellen. Joanna Lehner und Jürgen Klöckner, die Hosts unseres Wirtschafts-Podcasts „Power & Policy“, analysieren, ob dieser Eingriff ins Kartellrecht wirklich die Verbraucher entlastet oder lediglich ein Tropfen auf den heißen Stein bleibt. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von Amazon: Unabhängige Verkaufspartner stehen heute für über 60 % aller bei Amazon verkauften Produkte. Ein Beispiel ist Alphatrail aus Regensburg: Michael und sein Team haben ihre Leidenschaft in ein erfolgreich wachsendes Unternehmen verwandelt. Über Amazon bietet Alphatrail Radsport-Fans in ganz Europa erstklassige Ausrüstung und Zubehör. Sie sind eines von rund 47.000 deutschen kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen bei Amazon. Erfahren Sie mehr darüber auf AboutAmazon.de.**

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music 1.500 Tage nach Beginn der russischen Invasion. Der ukrainische Präsident Wolodymyr Selenskyj empfängt Gordon Repinski in Kiew zu einem Gespräch. Mitten in der globalen Eskalation durch den Iran-Krieg warnt Selenskyj vor einem gefährlichen Fokus-Verlust des Westens. Er spricht über die bittere Erkenntnis, dass Patriot-Raketen nun im Nahen Osten statt über Kiew gebraucht werden, und seine Sorge, dass US-Präsident Donald Trump die Sanktionen gegen russisches Öl de facto aushebeln könnte. Selenskyj findet außerdem deutliche Worte für den ungarischen Premier Viktor Orbán. Er bezeichnet ihn offen als „Verbündeten Putins“ innerhalb der EU und wirft ihm Erpressung vor, weil Orbán die Freigabe von EU-Milliarden für die Ukraine an die Durchleitung von russischem Öl knüpft. Selenskyj erklärt, warum die Ukraine bereit ist, die zerstörte Druzhba-Pipeline trotz Risiken für Europa zu reparieren, wenn Brüssel den Druck auf Budapest nicht erhöht. Und der Präsident spricht über die Erschöpfung seines Volkes, seinen persönlichen Hass auf Wladimir Putin und warum er Friedensverhandlungen nur aus einer Position der Stärke führen will. Zudem blickt er voraus: Er plant den EU-Beitritt der Ukraine für das Jahr 2027, warnt aber gleichzeitig, dass ohne ein klares Datum der EU-Staaten Putin auch nach einem Waffenstillstand die europäische Zukunft seines Landes blockieren wird. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna **(Anzeige) Eine Nachricht von Amazon: Unabhängige Verkaufspartner stehen heute für über 60 % aller bei Amazon verkauften Produkte. Ein Beispiel ist Alphatrail aus Regensburg: Michael und sein Team haben ihre Leidenschaft in ein erfolgreich wachsendes Unternehmen verwandelt. Über Amazon bietet Alphatrail Radsport-Fans in ganz Europa erstklassige Ausrüstung und Zubehör. Sie sind eines von rund 47.000 deutschen kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen bei Amazon. Erfahren Sie mehr darüber auf AboutAmazon.de.**

Russian President Vladimir Putin entered the new year facing a painful choice — limit his so-called special military operation in Ukraine or risk serious damage to his economy. Almost overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump handed him the solution. U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran have sent oil prices soaring, boosting the Kremlin’s main source of revenue and making it easier for Putin to sustain his war effort. After Israel bombed Iranian oil facilities this weekend, benchmark crude prices soared to above $100 per barrel, hitting their highest mark since the summer of 2022, when markets spiked following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. For Russia, the surge in oil prices amounts to an economic windfall at a crucial moment, as the cost of four years of war in Ukraine threatened to spill over into a domestic economic crisis. The assault on Iran may undermine Moscow’s claim to stand by its allies, but it is already benefiting Russia’s economy and, by extension, its war against Ukraine — leaving the Kremlin well placed to emerge as one of the main beneficiaries of the expanding conflict in the Middle East. ECONOMIC TURNAROUND Only several weeks ago, the mood among Russia’s economic elite was grim. The Russian finance ministry’s budget plan for this year assumed a baseline benchmark of $59 per barrel of Urals crude, the country’s main export blend. But in January, energy revenues plunged to their lowest level since 2020, compounding a disappointing tax haul. As Western sanctions, high interest rates and labor shortages strained the economy, tension between the finance ministry and the central bank on how to mitigate the damage became increasingly visible. “It was far from a collapse,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “But the government was facing tough choices, had to cut its spending and raise taxes and even consider some reduction in military expenditure.” Stopping the war in Ukraine was never on the table, Vakulenko added, but it was becoming clear that even on that front, Russia would have to “economize a bit.” Then Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran. As Tehran retaliated and the conflict spilled over into a regional war, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has stalled, sending oil prices soaring. “Suddenly, Moscow received this gift,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister turned Kremlin critic in exile. “They had their lifeline.” These days, he said, Russian officials are “very, very happy.” ‘STRATEGIC MISTAKE’ Instead of selling at a discount because of Western sanctions, Russian crude may now fetch premium prices as its main buyers — India and China — scramble to secure supplies. What’s more, they’ll have Washington’s blessing.  Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to buy Russian crude to “enable oil to keep flowing into the global market.” A day later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States could “unsanction other Russian oil,” a sharp reversal from last year’s policy of penalizing countries for buying Russian energy. Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin is using the moment to maximum advantage.  “Russia was and continues to be a reliable supplier of both oil and gas,” Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday in what sounded like a sales pitch, adding that demand for Russian energy products had increased. Meanwhile, Kremlin aide Kirill Dmitriev gloated in a series of posts on X that “the oil shock tsunami is just beginning,” criticizing Europe’s decision to cut itself off from Russian energy as “a strategic mistake.”  On Monday, pro-Kremlin commentators circulated a Wall Street Journal article predicting oil prices could skyrocket to $215. LONG GAME Energy experts warn it is too soon for Moscow to claim victory. Whether the Iran crisis proves a cure for Russia’s economy depends directly on how long it lasts. Milov, the former deputy energy minister, said that, to make a meaningful difference for the economy, Russia would need oil prices to remain at current levels for roughly a year. “One or two months of high prices would certainly help, but it won’t save it,” he said. A brief spike in prices will only “help to postpone the difficult decisions,” added Vakulenko, the analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.  There’s another reason why Moscow will be hoping the war drags on: With every day of fighting, the U.S. is depleting the weapon stocks Ukraine is relying upon to defend itself.  According to media reports, Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence to help it target U.S. warships and aircraft.  The assassination of Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike may have dealt a blow to Russia’s promise to defend its allies, but Putin may ultimately decide it was a price worth paying.

The Bank of Russia is suing the European Union for keeping its state assets frozen “for an indefinite period” to serve as collateral against a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. The lawsuit will test rare emergency powers that the European Commission used last year to keep Russian state assets across the bloc, worth some €210 billion, on ice through a qualified majority. The legal loophole nullified vetoes that Kremlin-friendly countries in the EU, such as Hungary, would otherwise have had. EU leaders agreed in mid-December to raise common debt without Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. Ukraine will only have to pay back the loan once Moscow ends the conflict and pays war reparations. If the Kremlin refuses, EU leaders reserve the right to tap the cash value of the frozen assets to pay itself back. In a statement Tuesday, the Bank of Russia blasted the EU’s “unlawful actions against the Bank of Russia’s sovereign assets,” saying the regulation violates “the basic and inalienable rights to access justice” and the “principle of sovereign immunity of states and their central banks.” The central bank also argued the Council of the EU committed “serious violations” of its own procedures by adopting the measure by qualified majority rather than unanimity. The Commission plans to issue a statement in response to the lawsuit, which the central bank filed at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg. Russia’s central bank filed a separate lawsuit in Moscow last year against Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, where the bulk of its assets lie immobilized under EU sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.