BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia, the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday. “The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement. Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia. EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s seven-year budget. A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal budgetary needs and the rest for defense. France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan. However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give Ukraine as much flexibility as possible. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme. Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by Kyiv. NEXT STEPS Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure. If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches. The remaining cash will arrive in 2027. Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc. While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8 billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund. By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its military and budgetary needs this year and next. Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at this point. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.

BRUSSELS — The U.S. and EU are hoping to attract $800 billion of public and private funds to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia ends its full-scale invasion, according to a document obtained by POLITICO. The 18-page document outlines a 10-year plan to guarantee Ukraine’s recovery with a fast-tracked path toward EU membership. The European Commission circulated the plans with EU capitals ahead of the leaders’ summit Thursday evening where the document, dated Jan. 22, was addressed, according to three EU officials and diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the sensitive topic. While Brussels and Washington are lining up hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term funding and pitching Ukraine as a future EU member and investment destination, the strategy hinges on a ceasefire that remains elusive — leaving the prosperity plan vulnerable as long as the fighting continues. The funding strategy stretches until 2040 alongside an immediate 100-day operational plan to get the project off the ground. But the prosperity plan will struggle to attract outside investment if the conflict rumbles on, according to the world’s largest money manager, BlackRock, which is advising on the reconstruction plan in a pro-bono capacity. “Think about it. If you’re a pension fund, you’re fiduciary towards your clients, your pensioners. It’s nearly impossible to invest into a war zone,” BlackRock’s vice chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, said Wednesday in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I think it has to be sequenced and that’s going to take some time.” The prosperity plan is part of a 20-point peace blueprint that the U.S. is attempting to broker between Kyiv and Moscow. It explicitly assumes that security guarantees are already in place and is not intended as a military roadmap. Instead, it focuses on how Ukraine can transition from emergency assistance to self-sustaining prosperity. A three-way meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. will take place in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, as the all-out conflict nears its fourth anniversary. The U.S. is set to play a prominent role in Ukraine’s recovery. Rather than framing Washington primarily as a donor, the document positioned the U.S. as a strategic economic partner, investor and credibility anchor for Ukraine’s recovery.  The note anticipates direct participation by U.S. companies and expertise on the ground, and highlights America’s role as a mobilizer of private capital. BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, has sat in on peace talks with Kyiv alongside U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff. SHOW ME THE MONEY Over the next 10 years, the EU, the U.S. and international financial bodies, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have pledged to spend $500 billion of public and private capital, the document said. The Commission intends to spend a further €100 billion on Kyiv through budget support and investment guarantees, as part of the bloc’s next seven-year budget from 2028. This funding is expected to unlock €207 billion in investments for Ukraine. The U.S. pledged to mobilize capital through a dedicated U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, but did not attach a figure.  While Trump has slashed military and humanitarian support to Ukraine during the war, it showed willingness to invest in the country after the end of the conflict. Washington said in the document that it will invest in critical minerals, infrastructure, energy and technology projects in Ukraine.  But business is unlikely to boom before the eastern front falls silent. “It’s very hard to see that happening at scale as long as you have drones and missiles flying,” BlackRock’s Hildebrand said. Kathryn Carlson reported from Davos, Switzerland.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Donald Trump verschärft den Konflikt mit Europa. Mit neuen Zollankündigungen und direktem Druck im Streit um Grönland zwingt der US-Präsident die EU zu einer ungewöhnlich geschlossenen Reaktion. Es wächst die Erkenntnis, dass Europa Trumps Eskalationsstrategie zu lange unterschätzt hat. Gordon Repinski analysiert, warum die Drohungen diesmal eine andere Qualität haben und welche Instrumente der EU nun tatsächlich auf dem Tisch liegen. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview stellt sich Markus Frohnmaier, außenpolitischer Sprecher der AfD, den Fragen zur richtigen Antwort Europas. Es geht um Zölle, nationale Interessen und die Frage, ob die Nähe zu Trump am Ende der deutschen Wirtschaft schadet. Hier die Folge mit Geopolitik-Experte Nico Lange nachhören. Danach richtet sich der Blick nach innen. In der Union kursieren Spekulationen über eine mögliche Personalrochade. Jens Spahn steht unter Druck, sein Verhältnis zum Kanzler gilt als belastet. Gemeinsam mit Rasmus Buchsteiner wird eingeordnet, wie realistisch ein Umbau tatsächlich ist, welche Fristen entscheidend sind und warum vor dem Frühjahr kaum Bewegung zu erwarten ist. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

BRUSSELS — The European Commission on Wednesday unveiled a €90 billion loan to Ukraine aimed at saving it from financial collapse as it continues to battle Russia while aid from the U.S. dries up. About one-third of the cash will be used for normal budget expenditures and the rest will go to defense — although countries still need to formally agree to what extent Ukraine can use the money to buy weapons from outside the EU. A Commission proposal gives EU defense firms preferential treatment but allows Ukraine to buy foreign weapons if they aren’t immediately available in Europe. While the loan is interest-free for Ukraine, it is forecast to cost EU taxpayers between €3 billion and €4 billion a year in borrowing costs from 2028. The EU had to resort to the loan after an earlier effort to use sanctioned Russian frozen assets ran into opposition from Belgium. The race is now on for EU lawmakers to agree on a final legal text that’ll pave the way for disbursements in April, when Ukraine’s war chest runs out. Meetings between EU treasury and defense officials are already planned for Friday. The European Parliament could fast-track the loan as early as next week. The financing package is also crucial for unlocking additional loans to Ukraine from the International Monetary Fund. The Washington-based Fund wants to ensure Kyiv’s finances aren’t overstretched, as the war enters its fifth year next month. The €90 billion will be paid out over the next two years, as Moscow shows no sign of slowing down its offensive on Ukraine despite U.S.-led efforts to agree on a ceasefire. “Russia shows no sign of abating, no sign of remorse, no sign of seeking peace,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after presenting the proposal. “We all want peace for Ukraine, and for that, Ukraine must be in a position of strength.” When EU leaders agreed on the loan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the deal an “unprecedented decision, and it will also have an impact on the peace negotiations.” Adding to the pressure on the EU, the U.S. under President Donald Trump has halted new military and financial aid to Ukraine, leaving it up to Europe to ensure Kyiv can continue fighting. Once the legal text is agreed, the EU will raise joint debt to finance the initiative, although the governments in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia said they will not participate in the funding drive.  The conditions on military spending are splitting EU countries. Paris is demanding strict rules to prevent money from flowing to U.S. weapons manufacturers, while Germany and other Northern European countries want to give Ukraine greater flexibility on how to spend the cash, pointing out that some key systems needed by Ukraine aren’t manufactured in Europe. MEETING HALFWAY The Commission has put forward a compromise proposal — seen by POLITICO. It gives preferential treatment to defense companies based in the EU, Ukraine and neighboring countries, including Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, but doesn’t rule out purchases from abroad. To keep the Northern European capitals happy, the Commission’s proposal allows Ukraine to buy specialized weapons produced outside the EU if they are vital for Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. These include the U.S. Patriot long-range missile and air defense systems. The rules could be bent further in cases “where there is an urgent need for a given defense product” that can’t be delivered quickly from within Europe. Weapons aren’t considered European if more than 35 percent of their parts come from outside the continent, according to the draft. That’s in line with previous EU defense-financing initiatives, such as the €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program. Two other legal texts are included in the legislative package. One proposes using the upper borrowing limit in the current budget to guarantee the loan. The other is designed to tweak the Ukraine Facility, a 2023 initiative that governs the bloc’s long-term financial support to Kyiv. The Commission will also create a new money pot to cover the borrowing costs before the new EU budget enters into force in 2028. RUSSIAN COLLATERAL Ukraine only has to repay the €90 billion loan if it receives post-war reparations from Russia — an unlikely scenario. If this doesn’t happen, the EU has left the door open to tapping frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself back. Belgium’s steadfast opposition to leveraging the frozen assets, most of which are based in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, promises to make that negotiation difficult. However, the Commission can indefinitely roll over its debt by issuing eurobonds until it finds the necessary means to pay off the loan. The goal is to ensure Ukraine isn’t left holding the bill. “The Union reserves its right to use the cash balances from immobilized Russian assets held in the EU to repay the Ukraine Support Loan,” Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said alongside von der Leyen. “Supporting Ukraine is a litmus test for Europe. The outcome of Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine will determine Europe’s future.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report from Brussels.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

ROME — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday called on Europe to appoint a special envoy to talk to Russia, as efforts continue to end the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Meloni said that she agreed with French President Emmanuel Macron, who last month called for new dialogue with the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin “expressed readiness to engage in dialogue” with Macron, Moscow said in response. “I believe the time has come for Europe to also speak with Russia,” Meloni told a press conference in Rome on Friday. “If Europe speaks to only one of the two sides on the field, I fear that the contribution it can make will be limited.” Meloni warned that Europe needs a coordinated approach or “risks doing Putin a favor.” Since the beginning of negotiations over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, “many voices have been speaking out, and that’s why I’ve always been in favor of appointing a European special envoy on the Ukrainian issue,” Meloni said. Peace talks aimed at ending the all-out conflict, which Russia launched in February 2022, have accelerated with U.S. President Donald Trump back in the White House, but Moscow has not indicated that it is willing to make concessions. The U.S. in November proposed that Russia be readmitted to the Group of Seven leading nations. But Meloni said it was “absolutely premature” to talk about welcoming Russia back to the G7 fold. Meloni also emphasized that Italy would not join France and the U.K. in sending troops to Ukraine to guarantee a potential peace deal, because it was “not necessary” if Ukraine signed a collective defense agreement with Western allies modeled on NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense provision. She suggested that a small contingent of foreign troops would not be a serious deterrent against a much larger Russian force. Reacting to Trump’s recent aggressive rhetoric toward Greenland, Meloni said that she “would not approve” of a U.S. military takeover of the vast Arctic island. “I don’t believe that the USA will carry out military action on Greenland, which I would not approve of and would not do anyone any good,” she told reporters. Meloni said she believed the Trump administration was using “very assertive methods” to draw attention to the strategic importance of Greenland for U.S. interests and security. “It’s an area where many foreign actors are carrying out activity and I think that the message of the USA is that they will not accept excessive interference by foreign actors,” she said.   Meloni also countered Trump’s remarks Thursday that he does not need international law, stressing that “international law must be defended.” But she added that it was normal to disagree with allies, “as national interests are not perfectly aligned.” “When I don’t agree with Trump, I say so — I say it to him.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham said Wednesday after meeting with President Donald Trump that the Senate could vote as soon as next week to impose new sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war with Ukraine. “After a very productive meeting today with President Trump on a variety of issues, he greenlit the bipartisan Russia sanctions bill that I have been working on for months with Senator [Richard] Blumenthal and many others,” Graham (R-S.C.) said in a statement, referring to the Connecticut Democrat who coauthored the long-stalled legislation. Spokespeople for the White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Graham said a Senate vote would take place “hopefully as early as next week.” Graham and Senate Republican leaders have been working with the White House for months to try to reach an agreement on a final version of the legislation — and this isn’t the first time Graham has declared that his bill could soon move, for it to only stall out again. The legislation would place secondary sanctions on countries such as China and India that buy oil and gas from Russia in a bid to cut off the cash flow for President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. “Ukraine is making concessions for peace and Putin is all talk, continuing to kill the innocent,” Graham said, saying the legislation would be “well-timed.” A spokesperson for Graham didn’t immediately respond to a question about whether changes will be incorporated at Trump’s request. The president has previously requested absolute flexibility to impose and retract any sanctions at will.

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO Europe. Russia’s war on Ukraine seems likely to end next year — and on terms highly unfavorable for Kyiv. Why the prediction? Because of the EU’s failure last week to agree to use Russia’s money — €210 billion in frozen assets — to keep Ukraine solvent and able to finance its war effort. The felling of the “reparations loan” proposal, which would have recycled Russian assets that are mostly frozen in a clearing bank in Belgium, deprives Ukraine of guaranteed funding for the next two years. It was Belgium’s legal anxieties over the loan, along with French President Emmanuel Macron’s and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s reluctance to join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in championing the proposal, that doomed it. And all that, despite weeks of wrangling and overblown expectations by the plan’s advocates, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Fortunately, the EU will still provide a sizable funding package for Ukraine, after agreeing to jointly borrow  €90 billion from capital markets secured against the EU’s budget, and lend it on a no-interest basis. But while this will prevent the country from running out of money early next year, the package is meant to be spread out over two years, and that won’t be sufficient to keep Ukraine in the fight. According to projections by the International Monetary Fund, due to the reduction in U.S. financial support, Ukraine’s budgetary shortfall over the next two years will be closer to $160 billion. Simply put, Ukraine will need much more from Europe — and that’s going to be increasingly difficult for the bloc to come up with. Still, many European leaders were rather optimistic once the funding deal was struck last week. Finnish President Alexander Stubb noted on Sunday that the agreed package would still be linked to the immobilized Russian assets, as the scheme envisions that Kyiv will use them to repay the loan once the war ends. “The immobilized Russian assets will stay immobilized … and the union reserves its right to make use of the immobilized assets to repay this loan,” he posted on X. Plus, the thinking goes, a subsequent loan could be added on and indirectly linked to the Russian assets. And maybe so. But this could also be construed as counting one’s chickens before they’re hatched, as everything depends on what kind of deal is struck to end the war. In the meantime, securing another loan won’t be so simple once Ukraine’s coffers empty again. Three countries — Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — already opted out of last week’s joint-borrowing scheme. It isn’t a stretch to imagine others will join them either, balking at the very notion of yet another multi-billion-euro package in 2027, which is an important election year for both France and Germany. Also, Trump will still be in the White House — so, no point in looking to Washington for the additional cash. Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP via Getty Images And yet, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever still described last week’s deal, reached after almost 17 hours of negotiations, as a “victory for Ukraine, a victory for financial stability … and a victory for the EU.” However, that’s not how Russian President Vladimir Putin will see it. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had noted while seeking to persuade European leaders to back the reparations loan: “If Putin knows, that we can stay resilient for at least a few more years, then his reason to drag out this war becomes much weaker.” But that’s not what happened. And after last Friday’s debacle highlighted the division among Europe’s leaders, surely that’s not the lesson Putin will be taking home. Rather, it will only have confirmed that time is on his side. That if he waits just a bit longer, the 28-point plan that his aides crafted with Trump’s obliging Special Envoy Steve Witkoff can be revived, leaving Ukraine and Europe to flounder — a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Putin can also read opinion polls, and see European voters’ growing impatience with the war in some of the continent’s biggest economies. For example, published last week, a POLITICO Poll of 10,000 found respondents in Germany and France even more reluctant to keep financing Ukraine than those in the U.S. In Germany, 45 percent said they would support cutting financial aid to Ukraine, while just 20 percent said they wanted to increase financial assistance. In France, 37 percent wanted to give less, while only 24 percent preferred giving more. In the run-up to last week’s European Council meeting, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal had told POLITICO that European leaders were being handed an opportunity to rebut Trump’s claim that they’re weak. That by inking a deal to unlock hundreds of billions in frozen Russian assets, they would also be answering the U.S. president’s branding of Europe as a “decaying group of nations.” That, they failed to do.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Donald Trumps Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus, Putins Vormarsch in der Ukraine und eine transatlantische Statik, die „endgültig aus den Fugen“ geraten ist: Das Jahr 2025 war sicherheitspolitisch ein Jahr der Zerreißproben. In dieser Sonderfolge zieht Gordon Repinski gemeinsam mit Claudia Major, Sicherheitsexpertin und Senior Vice President, Transatlantic Security beim German Marshall Fund, Bilanz. Major analysiert, warum Europa momentan keine glaubwürdige „Siegtheorie“ für die Ukraine hat und weshalb die Kapitulation Kiews zwar „gerade noch abgewendet“ wurde, die Gefahr für 2026 aber keineswegs gebannt ist. Es geht um die Wirksamkeit des 90-Milliarden-Kredits und die bittere Erkenntnis, dass der Westen derzeit nicht genug tut, um Putins Kalkül zu verändern. Major erklärt, ob und wie sich der Kontinent im Ernstfall auch ohne die USA verteidigen könnte, warum „Sicherheitsgarantien“ oft missverstanden werden und welche Rolle kleine Formate wie die „E3“ oder „E5“ im kommenden Jahr spielen müssen. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d’entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu

BRUSSELS — EU taxpayers will have to pay €3 billion per year in borrowing costs as part of a plan to raise common debt to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia, according to senior European Commission officials.  The bloc’s leaders agreed in the early hours of Friday to raise €90 billion for the next two years, backed by the EU budget, to ensure Kyiv’s war chest won’t run dry in April.  The war-ravaged country faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year and is in desperate need of funds to ensure its survival after Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to keep the conflict going on Friday.  Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia will not join the bloc’s other 24 countries in sharing the debt burden, but agreed not to obstruct Ukraine’s financing needs. As part of the carve-out deal, the Commission will propose a so-called enhanced cooperation early next week, giving the 24 countries a legal platform to raise joint debt. Many of the hallmarks of the €210 billion financing package for Ukraine will be transferred to the new plan for common debt. These include payout structures in tranches, anti-corruption safeguards, and an outline for how much money should be spent on Kyiv’s military and the country’s budgetary needs. European governments resorted to joint debt after failing to agree on a controversial plan to leverage frozen Russian assets across the bloc. The new plan would provide Ukraine with €45 billion next year, handing Kyiv a crucial lifeline as it enters its fifth year of fighting. The remaining funds would be disbursed in 2027. COST OF BORROWING The new plan won’t come cheap. The EU is expected to pay €3 billion annually in interest from 2028 through its seven-year budget, which is largely financed by EU governments, senior Commission officials told reporters on Friday. Interest payments would begin in 2027, but would cost only €1 billion that year. Ukraine will only have to repay the loan once Russia ends the war and pays war reparations. That seems unlikely, which means the EU could continuously roll over the debt or use frozen Russian assets to repay it.  That would require another political agreement among EU leaders, as Belgium is strongly opposed to using the frozen assets, most of which are held in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear. It was Belgium’s resistance that ultimately forced leaders to pursue common debt. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever wanted unlimited financial guarantees against the Russian asset-backed loan, a demand too great for his peers.