OSLO — Norway is doubling down on its role as Europe’s energy lifeline as wars and geopolitical turmoil rattle global markets. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said the widening conflict in the Middle East, which has already pushed oil prices higher and reduced supply, underscores why Europe needs stable energy partners. “It’s a war that appears to have no plan,” Støre said at the Offshore Norge Annual Conference in Oslo on Thursday, referring to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. “In such unpredictable times, Norway needs to be reliable.” Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Norway has become Europe’s largest pipeline gas supplier, replacing much of the fuel that once flowed from Russia. “All the gas we produce in Norway goes to Europe, and around 90 to 95 percent of oil we produce goes to Europe,” Anders Opedal, chief executive of Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor, told POLITICO. But while Oslo is positioning itself as a pillar of Europe’s energy security, Norwegian officials say the country cannot quickly ramp up production even if geopolitical tensions tighten global supply. Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland said his country is already operating close to maximum output. “We are at the top of production capacity just now,” he told POLITICO. Increasing supply would require new exploration and investment, Aasland said, as his government works to slow an expected decline in production after 2030 by developing additional resources on the Norwegian continental shelf. “Our focus is to be a stable and long and predictable supplier of energy to the European market,” he said. ARCTIC TENSIONS At the same time, Norway is pushing back against calls in Brussels to halt oil and gas development in the Arctic as the EU revises its Arctic strategy. The EU’s current policy commits the bloc to pursuing an international moratorium on Arctic oil and gas extraction, but the strategy is now under review, with a public consultation closing March 16 and a revised version expected before the summer. Norwegian officials, industry groups and unions are lobbying Brussels to drop the idea, arguing Europe will continue to need Norwegian Arctic gas as it phases out Russian supplies. Aasland defended Norway’s record in the region, pointing to the Barents Sea — where the country launched the Johan Castberg oil field last August — as an example of responsible development. “We have delivered oil and gas to the European market from the Arctic for several decades,” he said. “And we will develop it.” Industry leaders say Arctic production already plays a role in replacing Russian supplies. “When we opened the Johan Castberg field last year, the first cargo went straight to Europe, replacing Russian oil,” Opedal said. “Any moratorium here would actually reduce Europe’s security of supply.” Norway supplies roughly a third of EU gas imports, though Arctic gas accounts for a much smaller share, around 3 percent of the bloc’s imports. Still, Norwegian leaders argue a moratorium would send the wrong signal while Europe remains dependent on external energy supplies. Norwegian officials, industry groups and unions are lobbying Brussels to drop the idea, arguing Europe will continue to need Norwegian Arctic gas as it phases out Russian supplies. | Soeren Stache/picture alliance via Getty Images Ine Eriksen Søreide, the leader of Norway’s Conservative party, said calls to stop Arctic development clash with Europe’s current energy security priorities. “It sends a very bad signal when the Commission says we need to stop oil and gas development in the Arctic, because that’s development the EU relies on,” she said. Experts say the broader Arctic energy picture is dominated by Russia, which has major plans to expand liquefied natural gas production through projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2. Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute, said climate change is rapidly transforming the once-inaccessible region. “If we didn’t have climate change, we wouldn’t be talking about Arctic geopolitics,” he told POLITICO. “Climate change is actively reshaping the map, where suddenly there’s new trade routes available that didn’t exist even 10, 15 years ago.” OIL AND GAS AREN’T GOING ANYWHERE FOR NOW Across Oslo’s political spectrum, the message is broadly the same: Europe still needs reliable fossil fuel suppliers, and Norway intends to remain one of them. Opposition leader Sylvi Listhaug of the right-wing Progress Party argued Europe should encourage Norway to produce more oil and gas to reduce reliance on authoritarian regimes. “The more Norway can produce of gas, the less dependent Europe will be” on non-democratic producers, she said. Ine Eriksen Søreide, the leader of Norway’s Conservative party, said calls to stop Arctic development clash with Europe’s current energy security priorities. | Pool photo by Olivier Doulier/AFP via Getty Images Listhaug also warned that high energy prices risk undermining European competitiveness. “Energy and economic growth are a one-to-one relationship,” she said. Even as Norway expands renewables, leaders insist fossil fuels will remain crucial to Europe’s energy system during the long transition to cleaner alternatives. “We have to have two thoughts in our heads at the same time,” Aasland said.

BUDAPEST — When will the sex tape drop?  Talk to voters here about an election shaping up to be the most consequential for Hungary in decades, and it isn’t long before the conversation turns to the alleged secretly recorded intimate footage of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s challenger, Péter Magyar. In mid-February, journalists began receiving messages containing a still photo of a bedroom with the caption “coming soon.” The image has circulated widely on social media, but no video has surfaced. Magyar has said he suspects his opponents are planning to release a sex tape “recorded with secret service equipment and possibly faked, in which my then-girlfriend and I are seen having intimate intercourse.” The opposition leader and head of the center-right Tisza party has accused Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party of preparing a smear campaign in what is already a toxic race. And now that the deadline has passed for candidate nominations on Saturday, political analysts expect the smear campaigns and disinformation efforts to intensify. Once the nomination stage ends, a damaged candidate cannot simply withdraw and be replaced. So will the tape appear soon? And if it does, how will it affect a campaign in which polls show Fidesz trailing by around 9 percentage points? Could it sway the outcome? “We can’t be sure about its impact until we have the content,” said Péter Krekó, executive director of Political Capital, an independent policy research consultancy. “I would not dare to predict because it’s dependent on what’s on the tape.”  Péter Magyar, opposition leader and head of the center-right Tisza party has accused Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party of preparing a smear campaign in what is already a toxic race. | Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images Hungarian politicians have won elections after sex scandals. In 2017, Zsolt Borkai, the Fidesz-affiliated mayor of Győr and a former Olympian, was implicated in a major scandal after an anonymous blog published photos of him attending a group sex party on a yacht in the Adriatic Sea. Borkai was reelected narrowly two years later, though he subsequently stepped down.   Magyar is “very good with preemptive communication,” said Krekó. “He has tried to get ahead by admitting he was involved in a consensual sexual relationship. That was wise because it potentially minimizes his losses in advance.” A prominent opposition activist, who is not a Tisza member but supports Magyar, said he is unsure whether the tape would damage the effort to unseat Orbán. He requested anonymity to avoid straining his relationship with Magyar. “There’s already little enthusiasm for him personally,” he said. “There isn’t a popular embrace. For many on the left and center of the political spectrum, Magyar and Tisza are just useful vehicles to use to get rid of Orbán.” In the activist’s view, a Tisza victory would reflect a broad anti-Orbán coalition rather than affection for Magyar — similar to Labour’s 2024 victory in Britain, which was less about public enthusiasm for Keir Starmer than a desire to end Conservative rule. And so maybe voters wouldn’t care what baggage Magyar brought with him. WILL VLADIMIR PUTIN SAVE ORBÁN?  It isn’t just a sex tape people are bracing for. With nominations now closed, András Rácz, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, is watching for Russian influence operations to ramp up.  So far, that front has been relatively quiet. But Rácz thinks that will change. Speaking at a panel discussion in Budapest this week, he predicted a significant increase in Russian disinformation efforts aimed at helping the Hungarian prime minister.  “Orbán’s government has been the best asset Russia has ever had in the EU and NATO,” he said. “It would be foolish for them not to do everything they can to keep Orbán in power.”  “Orbán’s government has been the best asset Russia has ever had in the EU and NATO,” András Rácz said. | Pool photo by Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images Szabolcs Panyi — an award-winning journalist for Direkt36, an independent, non-profit investigative outlet — similarly expects intensified activity in the final weeks of the race. Citing multiple European national security sources, he has reported that a team of Kremlin-linked “political technologists” has been tasked with influencing Hungary’s election. The effort, he says, will be overseen by Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin. How successful such an effort will be remains unclear. In September, Russia launched an influence campaign against Moldova’s ruling party, co-founded by President Maia Sandu, in an attempt to swing a parliamentary election toward a pro-Russian party. In the end, it failed: Moldova’s pro-Western governing party retained its majority, decisively defeating the pro-Russian opposition. There is, however, a key difference between Moldova and Hungary. Moldovan authorities mounted a large-scale effort to counter the Russian campaign. Hungary’s ruling party is unlikely to do the same.

LONDON — Nigel Farage is having to make do with being a runner-up. Almost a year after his Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election on a night of local election euphoria, his party came second Friday in the Gorton and Denton contest. But despite not making it all the way in the Greater Manchester parliamentary seat, the populist insurgents are still talking up their chances of becoming the key right-wing challengers in the U.K. And they have a fresh set of numbers to back up their thesis. Candidate Matt Goodwin came second in the local race, with 10,578 votes. That’s a 28.7 percent share of the vote, and, crucially, is a sharp 14.6 percentage points up on Reform UK’s general election result in 2024. Though still more than 4,000 votes behind the victorious Greens — and empty-handed under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system — the result put them ahead of the governing Labour Party in a seat it has dominated for decades. Allies say it shows Reform once again as the primary vehicle for right-wing support — and not the Conservatives. Skeptics say it shows the limits of strategy tacked squarely to the right. “This is a massive change,” says Reform UK’s former Director of Communications Gawain Towler, who now sits on the party’s board. “When was the last time any right of center party got anywhere near that?” Defeated candidate Matt Goodwin vowed to run again at the general election and “continue the fight,” while Farage said he would “roll on” to the local elections this May. The two were quick to blame local factors, including making strident claims about sectarian voting in a constituency with a large Muslim population. But they have not indicated any pivot from their core message of a “broken Britain” beset by too much immigration. Towler argues the Gorton results hint at a realignment in British political allegiances that could see two-party politics return — just not in a way the once-dominant Tories or Labour will like. “There’s a bit of fragmentation, but it’s starting to settle on the right and I think it might settle on the left as well,” Towler argues. “We are seeing voters on both sides of the spectrum have legitimate other choices away from the Conservatives and Labour,” says Savanta’s Political Research Director Chris Hopkins. He believes Farage’s “electoral legitimacy” may increase after the May elections, but not solely for ideological reasons. “Reform’s popularity isn’t necessarily because they’re seen as the ‘true right’ but is more down to them being de-risked as voters see the Conservatives and Labour as so bad,” he says. Psephologist John Curtice says Reform was on tricky ground in a seat with a high ethnic minority population, less likely to favor the party’s hardline immigration and anti-equalities policies. That doesn’t mean the polling, which consistently shows Reform ahead at a national level, is “in any way a false picture of where they are at.” IN THE WILDERNESS By contrast, Britain’s Tories, who were running the country in government under two years ago, had a bruising night. They dropped from an already-dire general election showing of 7.9 percent to just 1.9 percent — receiving a paltry 706 votes. By polling under 5 percent, the party’s worst ever by-election result, the Tories lost the £500 deposit all candidates must pay to stand. In the immediate aftermath, Tory figures stressed that the party never had a chance of winning a constituency that has been reliably Labour for decades. Instead, they talked up Reform’s failure to seal the deal. “While last night’s result was disappointing for my party (we had a cracking candidate) it was not really our battlefield,” said former Deputy Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell. “The result was, however, very bad for Reform and may mark the beginning of the end of their hegemony.” Tory MP and former minister Graham Stuart said voters cast their ballots differently at by-elections compared to general elections, when they choose the next government. “The public is unhappy with the way the country is and has been run, and so has turned to parties on the left and right that reflect that anger,” he argued. “When the public is looking to replace this government at the next election they will look for something else,” Stuart added, referring to Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch. The difference in support for the two right-wing parties also raises questions about a non-aggression between Reform UK and the Tories at the next election. In the 2019 election, Farage’s Brexit Party stood down in Tory-held seats to give fellow Euroskeptics a better chance of success. Queen Mary, University of London academic Tim Bale says the Gorton and Denton result reinforces “the idea that there are some places where one of the two has a much better chance than the other and it would therefore make sense for both parties to do some kind of deal.” Both Reform and the Tories have flatly rejected making such an agreement — though minds may be focused if the alternative is a progressive alliance. Bale argues that the result in Gorton and Denton shows the limits of any appeal to Conservative voters to get over the line. “Their failure there … should give Farage pause for thought,” Bale, who wrote the book “The Conservative Party After Brexit,” says. “Maybe Farage shouldn’t, at least in private, rule out a deal with the Tories in the long run, even if he still says publicly he intends to replace them.” Pollster Hopkins says the dire Tory performance shouldn’t be overstated given “their voters don’t need to turn out at this by-election, or could happily vote tactically for Reform.” Instead, it shows “we are in multi-party politics now and they [the Tories] will have to work much harder to secure votes when Reform pose a very, very legitimate threat.”

The Netherlands’ youngest prime minister, Rob Jetten, was sworn in on Monday vowing to end the paralysis and polarization that plagued the previous government, the most far-right in Dutch politics. That promised return to the Netherlands’ historical tradition of consensus politics will be a tall order for the 38-year centrist, however.  He now presides over a fragile minority government and his plans on cutting welfare and social security spending are already facing backlash across the political spectrum. With far-right parties leading the polls in France and Germany, Jetten’s victory in October was welcomed by traditional parties in Brussels because it had been touch-and-go whether voters in the EU’s fifth-biggest economy would support centrists rather than the far right.  One hundred and seventeen days of coalition building later, Jetten faces a battle to drive through an ambitious agenda that includes a massive boost to defense spending in line with NATO’s 3.5-percent core target and reducing emissions from one of Europe’s most important livestock industries. On all counts, his opponents are out to extract painful concessions at the risk of political deadlock. Consultancy Verisk Maplecroft has ranked the Netherlands as the third-most governmentally unstable country in Europe, behind Bulgaria and Moldova.  The question now is whether Jetten’s government can buck a trend that has already seen two governments collapse in four years.  KNIVES OUT FOR COALITION DEAL In its coalition agreement, Jetten’s government —  which, aside from his own centrist D66, also includes the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) —  has promised to splurge on defense and housing and reintroduce voluntary farm buyouts, while maintaining a hawkish fiscal policy. To fund the spending bonanza, it is proposing a “freedom contribution” tax on income on top of drastic cuts to welfare and social security spending. The coalition agreement also looks to continue a strict line on migration set by the previous, far-right government, and envisages accelerating previous plans to increase the pension age. The left and far right have their knives out for the agreement. GreenLeft-Labor alliance (GL-PvDA) leader Jesse Klaver said he would only support the plans in case “of a U-turn.”  Geert Wilders, who leads the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) promised to fight it “tooth and nail.”  And Socialist Party (SP) leader Jimmy Dijk went as far as saying the government blueprint constituted “a frontal attack on our civilization.”  To get anywhere, Jetten’s government will need their support. The coalition has only 66 out of 150 seats in the lower house of Dutch parliament — 10 short of a majority. In the upper house of parliament, its position is even weaker, with 22 out of 75 seats.  Jetten himself has defended the minority government as a boon to democracy because it will allow opposition parties a greater say. But some argue that presents too rosy a picture, pointing out that the last formal minority government in 1939 collapsed after only two days.  A minority government is like “driving on the wrong side of the road,” political historian Kemal Rijken told Dutch public radio. “It’s quite dangerous and risky.” Presumably, a minority government was not Jetten’s first choice, either. The logical alternative would have been to include GL-PvdA, but the VVD torpedoed that possibility, rejecting the left-wing party as too “radical.” “The problem in The Hague is that parties that should be able to work together exclude each other,” explained Simon Otjes, аn associate professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University. Another option would have been to invite the far-right JA21 party into the coalition, but that would have come at the steep price of alienating Jetten’s progressive voter base. COBBLING TOGETHER COALITIONS Jetten’s minority government might represent less of a sea-change than it might seem at first glance. Haggling for political support from unlikely allies has, in recent years, been a fixture of Dutch politics. While the last official minority government was in 1939, the liberal Mark Rutte formed a highly unorthodox arrangement in 2010 in which he relied on the support of anti-Islam firebrand Wilders. Consecutive Dutch governments have since ruled with coalitions that, at some stage during their term, were forced to make do with minority support after one of the coalition parties pulled out, or lacked a clear majority in one or other chambers of parliament, Otjes noted.  “Every coalition has needed support from opposition parties to make laws and that remains unchanged,” he said. Moreover, on several core issues, finding an agreement might not present too much of a challenge.  On migration, for example, the coalition is likely to look for, and find, support on the far-right flank. On the other hand, it is likely to turn to the GL-PvDA for support on climate and measures to cut back nitrogen emissions from farms. There’s also widespread support for its plans to boost defense spending to meet NATO targets.  Analysts point out, however, it will be much harder to get parties to agree to the far-reaching cuts to social spending, whether on the left or the far right, leaving the foundation underpinning Jetten’s plans resting on quicksand. Jetten’s own answer to bridging deep political division is humility.  In selecting his ministers, Jetten said he looked for those “who are able to listen and don’t have all too big an ego.”  But the new prime minister himself risks becoming the greatest casualty of the political tightrope exercise.  The main risk is that left-wing voters who helped him to victory in last October’s election might change their minds in light of what looks to be his government’s overwhelmingly right-wing agenda.  Jetten can celebrate today. But from Tuesday, the hunger games begin. 

PARIS — France’s presidential election may still be more than 14 months away, but the campaign is already well under way. Traditionally, French campaigns don’t get going until after the August holidays of the year before, but the stakes for the 2027 contest are so high — given the potential victory of a far-right president skeptical of the European Union and NATO — that the race is now on. Almost every policy agenda in France, from the environment to business regulation, is now being viewed through the lens of the next presidential election, in which the centrist Emmanuel Macron will be unable to stand. Take last week’s World Impact Summit in Paris. Ostensibly a discussion about Europe’s green transition, it turned into a forum for far higher-level political maneuvers. Presidential hopefuls Marine Tondelier of the Greens, Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally, centrist Gabriel Attal and the center-left’s Raphaël Glucksmann all used the sustainability debate on stage to lay out rival visions for the nation and the Elysée. “We need to prepare the future,” former Prime Minister Attal said. “The country faces a crucial moment of truth in 2027, important for France and Europe.” The influential business lobby Medef is also moving early to make its voice heard in the campaign, and is arranging lunches for captains of industry with would-be candidates such as Bardella, Attal and Socialist leader Olivier Faure. Crucially, political parties are treating next month’s municipal elections as a dress rehearsal for the presidential contest. The far-right National Rally is hoping to cement its status as France’s predominant political force, while the left and center are gunning to prove they’re still relevant. “It is going to be a very long campaign,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. A NEW POLITICAL LANDSCAPE Being first out of the gate in French elections isn’t necessarily an advantage — as discovered by former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who confirmed his candidacy months ago and was initially seen as a front-runner. He’s now lagging in the polls. Liberal former Prime Minister François Bayrou, whose presidential aspirations are an open secret, has long said all that matters for candidates is that they’re in the discussion the Christmas before the election “at the earliest.” And France’s strict campaign finance laws mean there’s no need to fundraise early to accumulate a massive war chest. But the prospect of a far-right French president has sent the mainstream political establishment scrambling for a champion to take on Bardella or the National Rally’s preferred standard-bearer, Marine Le Pen, who is appealing an embezzlement conviction that has knocked her out of the contest. Parts of the political left and right are considering primaries even before the two-round race, but not all are buying into the idea. | Xavier Laine/Getty Images There isn’t an obvious mainstream candidate to lead the pack given how Macron’s 2017 election laid waste to France’s traditional left-right landscape. The political center has splintered, with a hodgepodge of candidates racing to fill Macron’s shoes. Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin warned against having too many candidates, particularly Philippe and Attal on the center right. “Competition is normal and legitimate,” he told the broadcaster RTL last week. “But if there’s more than one candidate, it’s possible that they won’t both reach the run-off. We urgently need to agree.” Lesser-known politicians such as Socialist lawmaker Jérôme Guedj, who joined the fray last week, are starting early in the hope of using the extra time to build a brand with voters. Guedj joins Philippe and Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, as already confirmed candidates. Others have been more coy about 2027 but appear to be gearing up for a run: They include former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, leader of the center-right Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau, and the conservative head of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand. Medef, the business lobby, said it was bringing forward the launch of its candidate lunches to adjust to this new reality. “The earlier we engage with them, the greater chance we have of influencing their positions,” said a Medef board member who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly. SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST Most political observers say the field of candidates is getting too large. Few agree on how to narrow it down. Parts of the political left and right are considering primaries even before the two-round race, but not all are buying into the idea — particularly those who have marginal leads and might lose their advantage to lesser-known candidates. Others argue for a Darwinian approach, letting the massive field duke it out on the campaign trail. “I’m convinced we need to agree on a candidate as late as possible,” said a former centrist minister. “It’s an extraordinary election, the campaign can’t be business as usual.” The week in between the two rounds of next month’s municipal election will offer vital clues going forward, as French political parties will be forced in certain contests to form alliances of convenience if they wish to block ideological opponents from victory. “Local elections are determined by local issues so we can’t project the result onto the national level,” said the pollster Jeanbart. “But it will tell us how the parties relate to each other.”

BERLIN — Friedrich Merz embarks on his first trip to the Persian Gulf region as chancellor on Wednesday in search of new energy and business deals he sees as critical to reducing Germany’s dependence on the U.S. and China. The three-day trip with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates illustrates Merz’s approach to what he calls a dangerous new epoch of “great power politics” — one in which the U.S. under President Donald Trump is no longer a reliable partner. European countries must urgently embrace their own brand of hard power by forging new global trade alliances, including in the Middle East, or risk becoming subject to the coercion of greater powers, Merz argues. Accompanying Merz on the trip is a delegation of business executives looking to cut new deals on everything from energy to defense. But one of the chancellor’s immediate goals is to reduce his country’s growing dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which has replaced much of the Russian gas that formerly flowed to Germany through the Nord Stream pipelines. Increasingly, German leaders across the political spectrum believe they’ve replaced their country’s unhealthy dependence on Russian energy with an increasingly precarious dependence on the U.S. Early this week, Merz’s economy minister, Katherina Reiche, traveled to Saudi Arabia ahead of the chancellor to sign a memorandum to deepen the energy ties between both countries, including a planned hydrogen energy deal. “When partnerships that we have relied on for decades start to become a little fragile, we have to look for new partners,” Reiche said in Riyadh. ‘EXCESSIVE DEPENDENCE’ Last year, 96 percent of German LNG imports came from the U.S, according to the federal government. While that amount makes up only about one-tenth of the country’s total natural gas imports, the U.S. share is set to rise sharply over the next years, in part because the EU agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of energy from the U.S. by the end of 2028 as part of its trade agreement with the Trump administration. The EU broadly is even more dependent on U.S. LNG, which accounted for more than a quarter of the bloc’s natural gas imports in 2025. This share is expected to rise to 40 percent by 2030. German politicians across the political spectrum are increasingly pushing for Merz’s government to find new alternatives. “After Russia’s war of aggression, we have learned the hard way that excessive dependence on individual countries can have serious consequences for our country,” said Sebastian Roloff, a lawmaker focusing on energy for the center-left Social Democrats, who rule in a coalition with Merz’s conservatives. Roloff said Trump’s recent threat to take over Greenland and the new U.S. national security strategy underscored the need to “avoid creating excessive dependence again” and diversify sources of energy supply. The Trump administration’s national security strategy vows to use “American dominance” in oil, gas, coal and nuclear energy to “project power” globally, raising fears in Europe that the U.S. will use energy exports to gain leverage over the EU. Last year, 96 percent of German LNG imports came from the U.S, according to the federal government. | Pool photo by Lars-Josef Klemmer/EPA That’s why Merz and his delegation are also seeking closer ties to Qatar, one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of natural gas as well as the United Arab Emirates, another major LNG producer. Last week, the EU’s energy chief, Dan Jørgensen, said the bloc would step up efforts to to reduce it’s dependence on U.S. LNG., including by dealing more with Qatar. One EU diplomat criticised Merz for seeking such cooperation on a national level. Germany is going “all in on gas power, of course, but I can’t see why Merz would be running errands on the EU’s behalf,” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘AUTHORITARIAN STRONGMEN’ Merz will also be looking to attract more foreign investment and deepen trade ties with the Gulf states as part of a wider strategy of forging news alliances with “middle powers” globally and reduce dependence on U.S. and Chinese markets. The EU initiated trade talks with the United Arab Emirates last spring. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia also have their own concerns about dependencies on the U.S., particularly in the area of arms purchases. Germany’s growing defense industry is increasingly seen as promising partner, particularly following Berlin’s loosening of arms export restrictions. “For our partners in the region, cooperation in the defense industry will certainly also be an important topic,” a senior government official with knowledge of the trip said.  But critics point out that leaders of autocracies criticized for human rights abuses don’t make for viable partners on energy, trade and defense. Last week, the EU’s energy chief, Dan Jørgensen, said the bloc would step up efforts to to reduce it’s dependence on U.S. LNG., including by dealing more with Qatar. | Jose Sena Goulao/EPA “It’s not an ideal solution,” said Loyle Campbell, an expert on climate and energy policy for the German Council on Foreign Relations. “Rather than having high dependence on American LNG, you’d go shake hands with semi-dictators or authoritarian strongmen to try and reduce your risk to the bigger elephant in the room.” Merz, however, may not see a moral contradiction. Europe can’t maintain its strength and values in the new era of great powers, he argues, without a heavy dollop of Realpolitik. “We will only be able to implement our ideas in the world, at least in part, if we ourselves learn to speak the language of power politics,” Merz recently said. Ben Munster contributed to this report.

MARSEILLE, France — Violence at a drug trafficking hotspot in the social housing complex next to Orange’s headquarters in Marseille forced the telecoms giant to lock its forest-green gates and order its thousands of employees to work from home. The disruption to such a recognizable company — one that gives its name to the city’s iconic football venue — became a fresh symbol of how drug trafficking and insecurity are reshaping politics ahead of municipal elections. In a recent poll, security ranked among voters’ top concerns, forcing candidates across the spectrum to pitch competing responses to the drug trade. “The number one theme is security,” center-right candidate Martine Vassal told POLITICO. “In the field, what I hear most often are people who tell me that they no longer travel in the heart of the city for that reason.” French political parties are watching the contest closely for clues about the broader battles building toward the 2027 presidential race. In many ways, Marseille is a microcosm of France as a whole, reflecting the country’s wider demographics and its biggest political battles. The city is diverse. Multicultural and low-income neighborhoods that tend to support the hard left abut conservative suburbs that have swung to the far right in recent years. As in much of France, support for the political center in Marseille is wobbling.  The left-wing incumbent Benoît Payan remains a slight favorite in the March contest, but Franck Allisio, the candidate for the far-right National Rally, is just behind, with both men polling at around 30 percent. The issues at play strike at the heart of Marseille’s identity: its notorious drug trade, entrenched poverty and failure to seize on the competitive advantages of a young, sun-drenched city strategically perched on the Mediterranean. Whichever candidate can articulate a platform that speaks to Marseille’s local realities while addressing anxieties shared across France will be well positioned to take city hall — and to provide their party with a potential blueprint for the 2027 presidential campaign.  SECOND CITY  Marseille has always had something of a little-brother complex with Paris, a resentment that goes beyond the football rivalry of Paris Saint-Germain and Olympique de Marseille. Many in the city regard the French capital as a distant power center that tries to impose its own solutions on Marseille without sufficiently consulting local experts.   People in Marseilles pay tribute to murdered Mehdi Kessaci. 20, whose brother is a prominent anti drug trafficking campaigner, and protest against trafficking, Nov. 22, 2025. | Clement Mahoudeau/AFP via Getty Images “Paris treats Marseille almost like a colony,” said Allisio. “A place you visit, make promises to — without any guarantee the money will ever be spent.”  When it comes to drug trafficking and security, leaders across the political spectrum agree that Paris is prescribing medicine that treats the symptoms of the crisis, not the cause.  Violence associated with the drug trade was thrust back in the spotlight in November with the killing of 20-year-old Mehdi Kessaci. Authorities are investigating the crime as an act of intimidation. Mehdi’s brother Amine Kessaci is one of the city’s most prominent anti-trafficking campaigners, rising to prominence after their half-brother — who was involved in the trade — was killed several years earlier.  President Emmanuel Macron, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin all visited Marseille in the wake of Kessaci’s killing, outlining a tough-on-crime agenda to stop the violence and flow of drugs.  Locals stress that law-and-order investments must be matched with funding for public services. Unless authorities improve the sluggish economy that has encouraged jobless youths to turn to the drug trade, the problem will continue.  “Repression alone is not efficient,” said Kaouther Ben Mohamed, a former social worker turned activist. “If that was the case, the drug trade wouldn’t have flourished like it did.” Housing is another issue, with many impoverished residents living in dangerous, dilapidated buildings. “We live in a shit city,” said Mahboubi Tir, a tall, broad-shouldered young man with a rugby player’s physique. “We’re not safe here.”   Tir spent a month in a coma and several more in a hospital last April after he was assaulted during a parking dispute. His face was still swollen and distorted when he spoke to POLITICO in December about how the incident reshaped his relationship with the city he grew up in.  “I almost died, and I was angry at the city,” said Tir, who suffers from memory loss and has only a vague recollection of what led to the assault, as he sipped coffee in the backroom office of a tiny, left-leaning grassroots political party where he volunteers, Citizen Ambition.  SECURITY PROBLEM To what extent Marseille’s activist groups can bring about change in a city whose struggles have lasted for decades remains to be seen, but the four leading candidates for mayor share a similar diagnosis. They all believe the lurid crime stories making national headlines are a byproduct of a lack of jobs and neglected public services — and that the French state’s responses miss the mark. Rather than relying on harsher punishments as a deterrent, they argue the state should prioritize local policing and public investment. When Payan announced his candidacy for reelection, he pledged free meals for 15,000 students to get them back in school and to double the number of local cops as part of a push for more community policing. Allisio’s platform puts the emphasis on security-related spending: increased video surveillance, more vehicles for local police and the creation of “specialized units to combat burglary and public disorder.” Vassal — the center-right backed by the conservative Les Républicains and parties aligned with Macron — has similarly put forward a proposal to arm fare enforcers in public transport. Both Allisio and Vassal are calling for unspecified spending cuts while preserving basic services provided at the local level like schools, public transportation and parks and recreation. Vassal, who is polling third, said she would make public transportation free for residents younger 26 to travel across the spread-out city. She accuses the current administration of having delivered an insufficient number of building permits, slowing the development of new housing and office buildings and thus the revitalization of Marseille’s most embattled areas — a trend she pledged to reverse. Both Vassal and Allisio are advocating for less local taxes on property to boost small businesses and create new jobs. Allisio has also put forward a proposal to make parking for less 30 minutes free to facilitate deliveries and quick stops to buy products. The outlier — at least when it comes to public safety — is Sébastien Delogu, a disciple of three-time hard-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Though Delogu is polling fourth at 14 percent, he can’t be counted out, given that Mélenchon won Marseille in the first round of the last two presidential elections. Though Delogu acknowledges that crime is a problem, he doesn’t want to spend more money on policing. He instead proposes putting money that other candidates want to spend on security toward poverty reduction, housing supply and the local public health sector. Whoever wins, however, will have to grapple with an uncomfortable truth. Aside from local police responsible for public tranquility and health, policing and criminal justice matters are largely managed at the national level. The solution to Marseille’s problems will depend, to no small extent, on the outcome of what happens next year in Paris.

It seems impossible to have a conversation today without artificial intelligence (AI) playing some role, demonstrating the massive power of the technology. It has the potential to impact every part of business, and European policymakers are on board. In February 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said, “We want Europe to be one of the leading AI continents … AI can help us boost our competitiveness, protect our security, shore up public health, and make access to knowledge and information more democratic.” Research from Nokia suggests that businesses share this enthusiasm and ambition: 84 percent of more than 1,000 respondents said AI features in the growth strategy of their organization, while 62 percent are directing at least 20 percent of ICT capex budgets toward the technology. However, the equation is not yet balanced. Three-quarters of survey respondents state that current telecom infrastructure limits the ability to deliver on those ambitions. Meanwhile, 45 percent suggest these limitations would delay, constrain or entirely limit investments. There is clearly a disconnect between the ambition and the ability to deliver. At present, Europe lags the United States and parts of Asia in areas such as network deployment, related investment levels and scale. > If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer, > economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a > limit and consumers will not see the benefits. What we must remember primarily is that AI does not happen without advanced, trusted and future-proofed networks. Infrastructure is not a ‘nice to have’ it is a fundamental part. Simply put, today’s networks in Europe require more investments to power the AI dream we all have. If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer, economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a limit and consumers will not see the benefits. When we asked businesses about the challenge of meeting AI demands during our research, the lack of adequate connectivity infrastructure was the fourth common answer out of 15 potential options. Our telecom connectivity regulatory approach must be more closely aligned with the goal of fostering AI. That means progressing toward a genuine telecom single market, adopting a novel approach to competition policy to allow market consolidation to lead to more investments, and ensuring connectivity is always secure and trusted. Supporting more investments in next-generation networks through consolidation AI places heavy demands on networks. It requires low latency, high bandwidth and reliability, and efficient traffic management. To deliver this, Europe needs to accelerate investment in 5G standalone, fiber to enterprises, edge data centers and IP-optical backbone networks optimized for AI. > As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI > must themselves make greater use of automation and AI. Consolidation (i.e. reducing the number of telecom operators within the national telecom markets of EU member states) is part of the solution. Consolidation will allow operators to achieve economies of scale and improve operating efficiency, therefore encouraging investment and catalyzing innovation. As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI must themselves make greater use of automation and AI. Policy support should therefore extend to both network innovation and deployment. Trust: A precondition for AI adoption Intellectual property (IP) theft is a threat to Europe’s industrial future and only trusted technology should be used in core functions, systems and sectors (such as energy, transport and defense). In this context, the underlying connectivity should always be secure and trusted. The 5G Security Toolbox, restricting untrusted technology, should therefore be extended to all telecom technologies (including fiber, optics and IP) and made compulsory in all EU member states. European governments must make protecting their industries and citizens a high priority. Completing the digital single market Although the single market is one of Europe’s defining projects, the reality in telecoms — a key part of the digital single market — is still fragmented. As an example, different spectrum policies create barriers across borders and can limit network roll outs. Levers on top of advanced connectivity To enable the AI ecosystem in Europe, there are several different enabling levers European policymakers should advance on top of fostering advanced and trusted connectivity: * The availability of compute infrastructure. The AI Continent Action Plan, as well as the IPCEI Compute Infrastructure Continuum, and the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking should facilitate building AI data centers in Europe.   * Leadership in edge computing. There should also be clear support for securing Europe’s access to and leadership in edge solutions and building out edge capacity. Edge solutions increase processing speeds and are important for enabling AI adoption, while also creating a catalyst for economic growth. With the right data center capacity and edge compute capabilities available, European businesses can meet the new requirements of AI use cases.  * Harmonization of rules. There are currently implications for AI in several policy areas, including the AI Act, GDPR, Data Act, cybersecurity laws and sector-specific regulations. This creates confusion, whereas AI requires clarity. Simplification and harmonization of these regulations should be pursued.  * AI Act implementation and simplification. There are concerns about the implementation of the AI Act. The standards for high-risk AI may not be available before the obligations of the AI act enter into force, hampering business ambitions due to legal uncertainty. The application date of the AI Act’s provisions on high-risk AI should be postponed by two years to align with the development of standards. There needs to be greater clarity on definitions and simplification measures should be pursued across the entire ecosystem. Policies must be simple enough to follow, otherwise adoption may falter. Policy needs to act as an enabler, not a barrier to innovation.  * Upskilling and new skills. AI will require new skills of employees and users, as well as creating entirely new career paths. Europe needs to prepare for this new world.  If Europe can deliver on these priorities, the benefits will be tangible: improved services, stronger industries, increased competitiveness and higher economic growth. AI will deliver to those who best prepare themselves. We must act now with the urgency and consistency that the moment demands. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Author biography: Marc Vancoppenolle is leading the geopolitical and government relations EU and Europe function at Nokia. He and his team are working with institutions and stakeholders in Europe to create a favorable political and regulatory environment fostering broadband investments and cross sectoral digitalization at large. Vancoppenolle has over 30 years of experience in the telecommunication industry. He joined Alcatel in 1991, and then Alcatel-Lucent, where he took various international and worldwide technical, commercial, marketing, communication and government affairs leadership roles. Vancoppenolle is a Belgian and French national. He holds a Master of Science, with a specialization in telecommunication, from the University of Leuven complemented with marketing studies from the University of Antwerp. He is a member of the DIGITALEUROPE Executive Board, Associate to Nokia’s CEO at the ERT (European Round Table for Industry), and advisor to FITCE Belgium (Forum for ICT & Media professionals). He has been vice-chair of the BUSINESSEUROPE Digital Economy Taskforce as well as a member of the board of IICB (Innovation & Incubation Center Brussels).

LONDON — British politicians condemned Donald Trump’s assertion that fellow NATO members stayed away from the frontlines during the war in Afghanistan. In his latest swipe at European allies, the U.S. president told Fox News he wasn’t “sure” the alliance would “be there if we ever needed them.” And he added: “We’ve never needed them. They’ll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan … and they did, they stayed a little back, a little off the front lines.” Britain lost 457 troops in Afghanistan, while 165 Canadians died and Denmark lost 44 soldiers, the highest per-head death toll during the two decade war. NATO invoked its Article 5 on collective security for the first and only time in its history after the 9/11 attacks against the U.S. Health Minister Stephen Kinnock told Sky News Friday Trump’s remarks were “deeply disappointing, there is no other way to say that.” Kinnock said he did not believe “there’s any basis for him to make those comments.” The minister added that “anybody who seeks to criticize what they [British troops] have done and the sacrifices that they make is plainly wrong.” He told the BBC it was “best at this time not to be distracted by comments that simply don’t really bear any resemblance to the reality.” BACKBENCHER BACKLASH The remarks cap a difficult week for transatlantic relations, with Trump threatening to impose trade tariffs on Britain over its support for Greenland before retreating, and also attacking London’s deal over the future of the Chagos Islands. Emily Thornberry, the Labour chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, called Trump’s words on Afghanistan “so much more than a mistake,” branding them an “absolute insult” to the bereaved families of victims. Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey, one of the U.S. president’s fiercest critics, said Trump “avoided military service five times,” and asked “how dare he question their sacrifice?” MPs who formerly served in Afghanistan also weighed. Labour MP Calvin Bailey, previously a Royal Air Force officer, said the comment “bears no resemblance to the reality experienced by those of us who served there.” Conservative parliamentarian Ben Obese-Jecty, a former British Army captain, said he was “sad to see our nation’s sacrifice, and that of our NATO partners, held so cheaply by the president of the United States.”

urope has spent the last week rummaging around for leverage that would force U.S. President Donald Trump to back off his threats to seize Greenland from Denmark. While Trump now says he will not be imposing planned tariffs on European allies, some politicians think they’ve found the answer if he changes his mind again: boycott the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The quadrennial soccer jamboree, which will be hosted in the U.S., Mexico and Canada this summer, is a major soft-power asset for Trump — and an unprecedented European boycott would diminish the tournament beyond repair. “Leverage is currency with Trump, and he clearly covets the World Cup,” said Adam Hodge, a former National Security Council official during the Biden administration. “Europe’s participation is a piece of leverage Trump would respect and something they could consider using if the transatlantic relationship continues to swirl down the drain.” With Trump’s Greenland ambitions putting the world on edge, key political figures who’ve raised the idea say that any decision on a boycott would — for now, at least — rest with national sport authorities rather than governments. “Decisions on participation in or boycott of major sport events are the sole responsibility of the relevant sports associations, not politicians,” Christiane Schenderlein, Germany’s state secretary for sport, told AFP on Tuesday. The French sport ministry said there are “currently” no government plans for France to boycott. That means, for the moment, a dozen soccer bureaucrats around Europe — representing the countries that have so far qualified for the tournament — have the power to torpedo Trump’s World Cup, a pillar of his second term in office like the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. (Another four European countries will be added in spring after the European playoffs are completed.) While they may not be household names, people like Spain’s Rafael Louzán, England’s Debbie Hewitt and the Netherlands’ Frank Paauw may now have more leverage over Trump than the European Commission with its so-called trade bazooka. “I think it is obvious that a World Cup without the European teams would be irrelevant in sports terms — with the exceptions of Brazil and Argentina all the other candidates in a virtual top 10 will be European — and, as a consequence, it would also be a major financial blow to FIFA,” said Miguel Maduro, former chair of FIFA’s Governance Committee. Several of the European soccer chiefs have already shown their willingness to enter the political fray. Norwegian Football Federation president Lise Klaveness has been outspoken on LGBTQ+ issues and the use of migrant labor in preparations for the 2022 World Cup. The Football Association of Ireland pushed to exclude Israel from international competition before the country signed the Gaza peace plan in October. “Football has always been far more than a sport,” Turkish Football Federation President Ibrahim Haciosmanoglu, whose team is still competing for one of the four remaining spots, wrote in an open letter to his fellow federation presidents in September calling for Israel’s removal. Trump attempted Wednesday in Davos to cool tensions over Greenland by denying he would use military force to capture the massive, mineral-rich Arctic island. But during the same speech he firmly reiterated his desire to obtain it and demanded “immediate negotiations” with relevant European leaders toward that goal. Later in the day, in a social media post, Trump said he reached an agreement with NATO on a Greenland framework. His Davos remarks are unlikely to pacify European politicians across the political spectrum who want to see a tougher stance against the White House. “Seriously, can we imagine going to play the World Cup in a country that attacks its ‘neighbors,’ threatens to invade Greenland, destroys international law, wants to torpedo the UN, establishes a fascist and racist militia in its country, attacks the opposition, bans supporters from about 15 countries from attending the tournament, plans to ban all LGBT symbols from stadiums, etc.?” wondered left-wing French lawmaker Eric Coquerel on social media. Influential German conservative Roderich Kiesewetter also told the Augsburger Allgemeine news outlet: “If Donald Trump carries out his threats regarding Greenland and starts a trade war with the EU, I find it hard to imagine European countries participating in the World Cup.” Russia’s World Cup in 2018 faced similar calls for a boycott over the Kremlin’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, as did Qatar’s 2022 tournament over the Gulf petromonarchy’s dismal human rights record. While neither mooted boycott came to pass — indeed, the World Cup and the Olympics haven’t faced a major diplomatic cold shoulder since retaliatory snubs by countries for the Moscow 1980 and Los Angeles 1984 Summer Olympics — Trump’s seizure of Greenland would put Europe in a position with no recent historical parallel. Neither FIFA, the world governing body that organizes the tournament, nor four national associations contacted by POLITICO immediately responded to requests for comment. Tom Schmidtgen and Ferdinand Knapp contributed to this report.