BRUSSELS ― European governments and corporations are racing to reduce their
exposure to U.S. technology, military hardware and energy resources as
transatlantic relations sour.
For decades, the EU relied on NATO guarantees to ensure security in the bloc,
and on American technology to power its business. Donald Trump’s threats to take
over Greenland, and aggressive comments about Europe by members of his
administration, have given fresh impetus to European leaders’ call for
“independence.”
“If we want to be taken seriously again, we will have to learn the language of
power politics,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last week.
From orders banning civil servants from using U.S.-based videoconferencing tools
to trade deals with countries like India to a push to diversify Europe’s energy
suppliers, efforts to minimize European dependence on the U.S. are gathering
pace. EU leaders warn that transatlantic relations are unlikely to return to the
pre-Trump status quo.
EU officials stress that such measures amount to “de-risking” Europe’s
relationship with the U.S., rather than “decoupling” — a term that implies a
clean break in economic and strategic ties. Until recently, both expressions
were mainly applied to European efforts to reduce dependence on China. Now, they
are coming up in relation to the U.S., Europe’s main trade partner and security
benefactor.
The decoupling drive is in its infancy. The U.S. remains by far the largest
trading partner for Europe, and it will take years for the bloc to wean itself
off American tech and military support, according to Jean-Luc Demarty, who was
in charge of the European Commission’s trade department under the body’s former
president, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Donald Trump’s threats to take over Greenland, and aggressive comments about
Europe by members of his administration, have given fresh impetus to European
leaders’ call for “independence.” | Kristian Tuxen Ladegaard Berg/NurPhoto via
Getty Images
“In terms of trade, they [the U.S.] represent a significant share of our
exports,” said Demarty. “So it’s a lot, but it’s not a matter of life and
death.”
The push to diversify away from the U.S. has seen Brussels strike trade deals
with the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, India and Indonesia in
recent months. The Commission also revamped its deal with Mexico, and revived
stalled negotiations with Australia.
DEFENDING EUROPE: FROM NATO TO THE EU
Since the continent emerged from the ashes of World War II, Europe has relied
for its security on NATO — which the U.S. contributes the bulk of funding to. At
a weekend retreat in Zagreb, Croatia, conservative European leaders including
Merz said it was time for the bloc to beef up its homegrown mutual-defense
clause, which binds EU countries to an agreement to defend any EU country that
comes under attack.
While it has existed since 2009, the EU’s Article 42.7 mutual defense clause was
rarely seen as necessary because NATO’s Article 5 served a similar purpose.
But Europe’s governments have started to doubt whether the U.S. really would
come to Europe’s rescue.
In Zagreb, the leaders embraced the EU’s new role as a security actor, tasking
two leaders, as yet unnamed, with rapidly cooking up plans to turn the EU clause
from words to an ironclad security guarantee.
“For decades, some countries said ‘We have NATO, why should we have parallel
structures?’” said a senior EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to talk about
confidential summit preparations. After Trump’s Greenland saber-rattling, “we
are faced with the necessity, we have to set up military command structures
within the EU.”
At a weekend retreat in Zagreb, Croatia, conservative European leaders including
Merz said it was time for the bloc to beef up its homegrown mutual-defense
clause, which binds EU countries to an agreement to defend any EU country that
comes under attack. | Marko Perkov/AFP via Getty Images
In comments to EU lawmakers last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said
that anyone who believes Europe can defend itself without the U.S. should “keep
on dreaming.”
Europe remains heavily reliant on U.S. military capabilities, most notably in
its support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. But some Europeans are now
openly talking about the price of reducing exposure to the U.S. — and saying
it’s manageable.
TECHNOLOGY: TEAMS OUT, VISIO IN
The mood shift is clearest when it comes to technology, where European reliance
on platforms such as X, Meta and Google has long troubled EU voters, as
evidenced by broad support for the bloc’s tech legislation.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s government is planning to ban officials from
using U.S.-based videoconferencing tools. Other countries like Germany are
contemplating similar moves.
“It’s very clear that Europe is having our independence moment,” EU tech czar
Henna Virkkunen told a POLITICO conference last week. “During the last year,
everybody has really realized how important it is that we are not dependent on
one country or one company when it comes to some very critical technologies.”
France is moving to ban public officials from using American platforms including
Google Meet, Zoom and Teams, a government spokesperson told POLITICO. Officials
will soon make the switch to Visio, a videoconferencing tool that runs on
infrastructure provided by French firm Outscale.
In the European Parliament, lawmakers are urging its president, Roberta Metsola,
to ditch U.S. software and hardware, as well as a U.S.-based travel booking
tool.
In Germany, politicians want a potential German or European substitute for
software made by U.S. data analysis firm Palantir. “Such dependencies on key
technologies are naturally a major problem,” Sebastian Fiedler, an SPD lawmaker
and expert on policing, told POLITICO.
Even in the Netherlands, among Europe’s more pro-American countries, there are
growing calls from lawmakers and voters to ring-fence sensitive technologies
from U.S. influence. Dutch lawmakers are reviewing a petition signed by 140,000
people calling on the state to block the acquisition of a state identity
verification tool by a U.S. company.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in late January, German
entrepreneur Anna Zeiter announced the launch of a Europe-based social media
platform called W that could rival Elon Musk’s X, which has faced fines for
breaching the EU’s content moderation rules. W plans to host its data on
“European servers owned by European companies” and limits its investors to
Europeans, Zeiter told Euronews.
So far, Brussels has yet to codify any such moves into law. But upcoming
legislation on cloud and AI services are expected to send signals about the need
to Europeanize the bloc’s tech offerings.
ENERGY: TIME TO DIVERSIFY
On energy, the same trend is apparent.
The United States provides more than a quarter of the EU’s gas, a share set to
rise further as a full ban on Russian imports takes effect.
But EU officials warn about the risk of increasing Europe’s dependency on the
U.S. in yet another area. Trump’s claims on Greenland were a “clear wake-up
call” for the EU, showing that energy can no longer be seen in isolation from
geopolitical trends, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said last Wednesday.
The Greenland crisis reinforced concerns that the bloc risks “replacing one
dependency with another,” said Jørgensen, adding that as a result, Brussels is
stepping up efforts to diversify, deepening talks with alternative suppliers
including Canada, Qatar and North African countries such as Algeria.
FINANCE: MOVING TO EUROPEAN PAYMENTS
Payment systems are also drawing scrutiny, with lawmakers warning about
over-reliance on U.S. payment systems such as Mastercard and Visa.
The digital euro, a digital version of cash that the European Central Bank is
preparing to issue in 2029, aims to cut these dependencies and provide a
pan-European sovereign means of payment. “With the digital euro, Europeans would
remain in control of their money, their choices and their future,” ECB President
Christine Lagarde said last year.
In Germany, some politicians are sounding the alarm about 1,236 tons of gold
reserves that Germany keeps in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“In a time of growing global uncertainty and under President Trump’s
unpredictable U.S. policy, it’s no longer acceptable” to have that much in gold
reserves in the U.S., Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the German politician from
the liberal Free Democratic Party, who chairs the Parliament’s defense
committee, told Der Spiegel.
Several European countries are pushing the EU to privilege European
manufacturers when it comes to spending EU public money via “Buy European”
clauses.
Until a few years ago, countries like Poland, the Netherlands or the Baltic
states would never have agreed on such “Buy European” clauses. But even those
countries are now backing calls to prioritize purchases from EU-based companies.
MILITARY INVESTMENT: BOOSTING OWN CAPACITY
A €150 billion EU program to help countries boost their defense investments,
finalized in May of last year, states that no more than 35 percent of the
components in a given purchase, by cost, should originate from outside the EU
and partner states like Norway and Ukraine. The U.S. is not considered a partner
country under the scheme.
For now, European countries rely heavily on the U.S. for military enablers
including surveillance and reconnaissance, intelligence, strategic lift, missile
defense and space-based assets. But the powerful conservative umbrella group,
the European People Party, says these are precisely the areas where Europe needs
to ramp up its own capacities.
When EU leaders from the EPP agreed on their 2026 roadmap in Zagreb, they stated
that the “Buy European” principle should apply to an upcoming Commission
proposal on joint procurement.
The title of the EPP’s 2026 roadmap? “Time for independence.”
Camille Gijs, Jacopo Barigazzi, Mathieu Pollet, Giovanna Faggionato, Eliza
Gkritsi, Elena Giordano, Ben Munster and Sam Clark contributed reporting from
Brussels. James Angelos contributed reporting from Berlin.
Tag - Cybersecurity
The center-right European People’s Party is eyeing “better implementation” of
the Lisbon Treaty to better prepare the EU for what it sees as historic shifts
in the global balance of power involving the U.S., China and Russia, EPP leader
Manfred Weber said on Saturday.
Speaking at a press conference on the second day of an EPP Leaders Retreat in
Zagreb, Weber highlighted the possibility of broadening the use of qualified
majority voting in EU decision-making and developing a practical plan for
military response if a member state is attacked.
Currently EU leaders can use qualified majority voting on most legislative
proposals, from energy and climate issues to research and innovation. But common
foreign and security policy, EU finances and membership issues, among other
areas, need a unified majority.
This means that on issues such as sanctions against Russia, one country can
block agreement, as happened last summer when Slovakian Prime Minister Robert
Fico vetoed a package of EU measures against Moscow — a veto that was eventually
lifted. Such power in one country’s hands is something that the EPP would like
to change.
As for military solidarity, Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty obliges countries
to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power” if an EU country
is attacked. For Weber, the formulation under European law is stronger than
NATO’s Article 5 collective defense commitment.
However, he stressed that the EU still lacks a clear operational plan for how
the clause would work in practice. Article 42.7 was previously used when France
requested that other EU countries make additional contributions to the fight
against terrorism, following the Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015.
Such ideas were presented as the party with a biggest grouping in the European
Parliament — and therefore the power to shape EU political priorities —
presented its strategic focus for 2026, with competitiveness as its main
priority.
Keeping the pulse on what matters in 2026
The EPP wants to unleash the bloc’s competitiveness through further cutting red
tape, “completing” the EU single market, diversifying supply chains, protecting
economic independence and security and promoting innovation including in AI,
chips and biotech, among other actions, according to its list 2026 priorities
unveiled on Saturday.
On defense, the EPP is pushing for a “360-degree” security approach to safeguard
Europe against growing geopolitical threats, “addressing state and non-state
threats from all directions,” according to the document.
The EPP is calling for enhanced European defense capabilities, including a
stronger defense market, joint procurement of military equipment, and new
strategic initiatives to boost readiness. The party also stressed the need for
better protection against cyberattacks and hybrid threats, and robust measures
to counter disinformation campaigns targeting EU institutions and societies.
On migration and border security, the EPP backs tougher asylum admissibility
rules, faster returns, and strengthened external borders, including reinforced
Frontex operations and improved digital systems like the Entry/Exit System.
The party also urged a Demographic Strategy for Europe amid the continent’s
shrinking and aging population. The text, initiated by Croatian Democratic Union
(HDZ), member of the EPP, wants to see demographic considerations integrated
into EU economic governance, cohesion funds, and policymaking, while boosting
family support, intergenerational solidarity, labor participation, skills
development, mobility and managed immigration.
Demographic change is “the most important issue, which is not really intensively
discussed in the public discourse,” Weber said. “That’s why we want to highlight
this, we want to underline the importance.”
The Netherlands’ incoming government wants to push Europe toward a tighter
intelligence-sharing club — including what it calls a potential “European
equivalent” of the Five Eyes alliance — as part of a broader overhaul of its
security services.
The new coalition argues, in its governing plans published Friday, that rising
threats require faster and more proactive intelligence agencies while preserving
the country’s tradition of operating under strict rule-of-law safeguards.
The proposals include boosting funding and digital infrastructure for the
civilian intelligence agency (AIVD) and military intelligence service (MIVD),
and strengthening the role of the national counterterrorism coordinator.
At the European level, The Hague says it wants to intensify cooperation with a
core group of like-minded countries, explicitly floating a continent-wide
version of the “Five Eyes” intelligence partnership (which is made up of
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.).
In October, the heads of the two Dutch agencies announced they would stop
sharing certain information with their U.S. counterparts, citing political
interference and human rights concerns. Instead they would look at increasing
cooperation with other European services, like the U.K., Poland, France, Germany
and the Nordic countries.
Domestically, the government plans to fast-track a revamped Intelligence and
Security Services Act, rewriting the law to focus on threats rather than
specific investigative tools and making it “technology-neutral” so agencies are
not outpaced by innovation. Supervisory bodies would be merged to provide
streamlined, but legally robust, oversight.
The agenda also calls for expanding the operational research capacity of Dutch
intelligence services to help build Europe’s “strategic autonomy,” while
deepening ties with tech firms and recruiting top technical talent.
BRUSSELS — An identity tool that underpins the digital lives of Dutch people and
has partly fallen into American hands is prompting the country to reconsider its
reliance on U.S. technology.
In the Netherlands, almost every citizen regularly uses the online
identification tool DigiD to book a doctor’s appointment, buy a house or access
online public services.
With a Dutch supplier of the tool in the process of being acquired by a U.S.
technology company, that’s prompting concerns that the Netherlands is giving
away critical technology at a moment of heightened sensitivity around the
country’s wholesale use of American services.
As Dutch lawmakers in the parliament’s digital affairs committee met Tuesday to
debate the issue, they received a petition signed by 140,000 people calling on
the government to block the acquisition.
“If the Dutch government does something that [U.S. President Donald] Trump
doesn’t like, he can shut down our government with one push of a button,” the
petition reads. “That’s a big danger.”
The debate over DigiD has put the spotlight on a topic that has been simmering
for a while.
With the Netherlands a long-time proponent of the transatlantic relationship,
Dutch society is built on U.S. technology and IT services — as is the country’s
government. That’s now seen as a glaring security issue as Trump fires off
threats toward Europe.
Two-thirds of the domain names of Dutch governments, schools and other critical
companies rely on at least one U.S. cloud provider, research by the Dutch public
broadcaster showed Sunday, with Microsoft the frontrunner.
“We are the most Microsoft-loving country of the whole world,” said Bert Hubert,
a Dutch cybersecurity expert and former intelligence watchdog. “The Dutch
government uses more Microsoft than the U.S. government.”
OMNIPRESENT
Questions over DigiD’s relationship with U.S. technology started in early
November.
U.S. cloud provider Kyndryl, a recent spin-off of the well-known U.S. tech
company IBM, announced at the time that it would acquire Dutch cloud provider
Solvinity. That company doesn’t own the online identification tool DigiD but
provides the platform on which it runs.
To Dutch people, DigiD is ubiquitous in their lives. “Every time you want to
rent a house in the Netherlands, make an appointment with the doctor or do
something in the hospital, you have to go through DigiD,” Hubert said.
Potential U.S. control over such an omnipresent tool triggered fierce pushback.
Last year the International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, ditched
Microsoft as a service provider amid concerns about U.S. sanctions targeting the
court. | Erik S. Lesser/EPA
Putting vital digital infrastructure in American hands “raises Dutch
vulnerability for outages, manipulation or even blackmail,” a group of experts,
among them Hubert, said in a letter their lawyers sent mid-January to the
ministry service in charge of scrutinising acquisitions.
The acquisition could also endanger the security of Dutch people’s sensitive
personal data, lawmakers and experts argue.
“The risk is that it falls under the U.S. Cloud Act, which says that it doesn’t
matter if data is hosted on EU soil, but if the service is done by a U.S.
company, then the [U.S.] government can ask for that data,” said Barbara
Kathmann, lawmaker of the GreenLeft-Labour party and expert in digital affairs.
The Dutch Economy Ministry is now looking into the deal and whether it raises
national security concerns, a ministry representative said in the Dutch
parliament last week.
Kyndryl said in a statement that it “always lived up to relevant Dutch and
European requirements for the security of customers’ data and will continue to
comply with existing obligations of Solvinity to its customers.”
CAUTIONARY TALE
The Solvinity acquisition has put the spotlight on a topic that has been
simmering for a while.
Last year the International Criminal Court, based in The Hague, ditched
Microsoft as a service provider amid concerns about U.S. sanctions targeting the
court.
The ICC case and the Solvinity acquisition should serve as a cautionary tale for
Europe to start mapping its reliance on the U.S. and nurturing European
alternatives, said Sarah El Boujdaini, a lawmaker for the centrist D66 — the
party of the incoming prime minister Rob Jetten.
“We need to have a wider look at where our most vulnerable dependencies are,
where we need to take back control, and where we need to procure more from
European companies,” said El Boujdaini.
That should include a particular focus on government services and services that
people access continually, several interviewees said.
“Traditional government services should not be outsourced to other countries,
especially not countries that are willing and have shown to be capable of
weaponizing those dependencies,” said Dutch liberal European Parliament lawmaker
Bart Groothuis.
“Of course [the government] should make use of the services of ICT providers,”
said Hubert, “but what you should not do is give a part of your society that you
depend on 24 hours a day to a company that can be acquired.”
Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense
spending, its government announced today.
“In view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation, the Federal Council wants
to substantially strengthen Switzerland’s security and defense capabilities,”
the statement reads. “To this end, additional resources in the order of 31
billion Swiss francs [€33 billion] are required.”
The Council plans to temporarily raise VAT by 0.8 percent from the current 8.1
percent for 10 years, as of 2028. The additional revenues will be allocated to
an armament fund that will also have borrowing capacity.
However, raising the VAT requires a change in the constitution and a public
consultation will open in the spring.
Switzerland has been rethinking its defense stance since Russia’s attack on
Ukraine almost four years ago. It is looking for more military cooperation with
European nations and ramping up its rearmament, although it still has no
intention of joining NATO.
Switzerland spends about 0.7 percent of its GDP on defense, one of the lowest
rates in Europe. The current goal of boosting that to 1 percent by 2032 is now
out of date, the Federal Council said.
“Due to the savings made in recent decades, the armed forces are also
insufficiently equipped, particularly to effectively repel the most likely
threats, namely long-range attacks and hybrid conflicts,” the statement added.
Priorities for the country’s armament push include short- and medium-range air
defense systems, cybersecurity and electromagnetic capabilities.
It seems impossible to have a conversation today without artificial intelligence
(AI) playing some role, demonstrating the massive power of the technology. It
has the potential to impact every part of business, and European policymakers
are on board.
In February 2025, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, said,
“We want Europe to be one of the leading AI continents … AI can help us boost
our competitiveness, protect our security, shore up public health, and make
access to knowledge and information more democratic.”
Research from Nokia suggests that businesses share this enthusiasm and ambition:
84 percent of more than 1,000 respondents said AI features in the growth
strategy of their organization, while 62 percent are directing at least 20
percent of ICT capex budgets toward the technology.
However, the equation is not yet balanced.
Three-quarters of survey respondents state that current telecom infrastructure
limits the ability to deliver on those ambitions. Meanwhile, 45 percent suggest
these limitations would delay, constrain or entirely limit investments.
There is clearly a disconnect between the ambition and the ability to deliver.
At present, Europe lags the United States and parts of Asia in areas such as
network deployment, related investment levels and scale.
> If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer,
> economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a
> limit and consumers will not see the benefits.
What we must remember primarily is that AI does not happen without advanced,
trusted and future-proofed networks. Infrastructure is not a ‘nice to have’ it
is a fundamental part. Simply put, today’s networks in Europe require more
investments to power the AI dream we all have.
If AI does not reach its full potential, EU competitiveness will suffer,
economic growth will have a ceiling, the creation of new jobs will have a limit
and consumers will not see the benefits.
When we asked businesses about the challenge of meeting AI demands during our
research, the lack of adequate connectivity infrastructure was the fourth common
answer out of 15 potential options.
Our telecom connectivity regulatory approach must be more closely aligned with
the goal of fostering AI. That means progressing toward a genuine telecom single
market, adopting a novel approach to competition policy to allow market
consolidation to lead to more investments, and ensuring connectivity is always
secure and trusted.
Supporting more investments in next-generation networks through consolidation
AI places heavy demands on networks. It requires low latency, high bandwidth and
reliability, and efficient traffic management. To deliver this, Europe needs to
accelerate investment in 5G standalone, fiber to enterprises, edge data centers
and IP-optical backbone networks optimized for AI.
> As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI
> must themselves make greater use of automation and AI.
Consolidation (i.e. reducing the number of telecom operators within the national
telecom markets of EU member states) is part of the solution. Consolidation will
allow operators to achieve economies of scale and improve operating efficiency,
therefore encouraging investment and catalyzing innovation.
As industry voices such as Nokia have emphasized, the networks that power AI
must themselves make greater use of automation and AI. Policy support should
therefore extend to both network innovation and deployment.
Trust: A precondition for AI adoption
Intellectual property (IP) theft is a threat to Europe’s industrial future and
only trusted technology should be used in core functions, systems and sectors
(such as energy, transport and defense). In this context, the underlying
connectivity should always be secure and trusted. The 5G Security Toolbox,
restricting untrusted technology, should therefore be extended to all telecom
technologies (including fiber, optics and IP) and made compulsory in all EU
member states. European governments must make protecting their industries and
citizens a high priority.
Completing the digital single market
Although the single market is one of Europe’s defining projects, the reality in
telecoms — a key part of the digital single market — is still fragmented. As an
example, different spectrum policies create barriers across borders and can
limit network roll outs.
Levers on top of advanced connectivity
To enable the AI ecosystem in Europe, there are several different enabling
levers European policymakers should advance on top of fostering advanced and
trusted connectivity:
* The availability of compute infrastructure. The AI Continent Action Plan, as
well as the IPCEI Compute Infrastructure Continuum, and the European
High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking should facilitate building AI
data centers in Europe.
* Leadership in edge computing. There should also be clear support for securing
Europe’s access to and leadership in edge solutions and building out edge
capacity. Edge solutions increase processing speeds and are important for
enabling AI adoption, while also creating a catalyst for economic growth.
With the right data center capacity and edge compute capabilities available,
European businesses can meet the new requirements of AI use cases.
* Harmonization of rules. There are currently implications for AI in several
policy areas, including the AI Act, GDPR, Data Act, cybersecurity laws and
sector-specific regulations. This creates confusion, whereas AI requires
clarity. Simplification and harmonization of these regulations should be
pursued.
* AI Act implementation and simplification. There are concerns about the
implementation of the AI Act. The standards for high-risk AI may not
be available before the obligations of the AI act enter into force, hampering
business ambitions due to legal uncertainty. The application date of the AI
Act’s provisions on high-risk AI should be postponed by two years to align
with the development of standards. There needs to be greater clarity on
definitions and simplification measures should be pursued across the entire
ecosystem. Policies must be simple enough to follow, otherwise adoption may
falter. Policy needs to act as an enabler, not a barrier to innovation.
* Upskilling and new skills. AI will require new skills of employees and users,
as well as creating entirely new career paths. Europe needs to prepare for
this new world.
If Europe can deliver on these priorities, the benefits will be tangible:
improved services, stronger industries, increased competitiveness and higher
economic growth. AI will deliver to those who best prepare themselves.
We must act now with the urgency and consistency that the moment demands.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author biography: Marc Vancoppenolle is leading the geopolitical and government
relations EU and Europe function at Nokia. He and his team are working with
institutions and stakeholders in Europe to create a favorable political and
regulatory environment fostering broadband investments and cross sectoral
digitalization at large.
Vancoppenolle has over 30 years of experience in the telecommunication industry.
He joined Alcatel in 1991, and then Alcatel-Lucent, where he took various
international and worldwide technical, commercial, marketing, communication and
government affairs leadership roles.
Vancoppenolle is a Belgian and French national. He holds a Master of Science,
with a specialization in telecommunication, from the University of Leuven
complemented with marketing studies from the University of Antwerp. He is a
member of the DIGITALEUROPE Executive Board, Associate to Nokia’s CEO at the ERT
(European Round Table for Industry), and advisor to FITCE Belgium (Forum for ICT
& Media professionals). He has been vice-chair of the BUSINESSEUROPE Digital
Economy Taskforce as well as a member of the board of IICB (Innovation &
Incubation Center Brussels).
Germany and Italy on Friday backed an organization dedicated to fighting hybrid
threats and disinformation, weeks after the United States exited it and called
it “wasteful.”
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has hammered Europe with hybrid
attacks ranging from cyberattacks, destruction of property and transport links,
disinformation, drone incursions and even attempted assassinations. Analysts
argue the aim of the hybrid campaign is to reduce European support for Ukraine.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met
in Rome to adopt a “plan of action for strategic bilateral and EU cooperation.”
In the joint plan, the two countries committed to “strengthening” the European
Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats.
The center was one of dozens of organizations from which U.S. President Donald
Trump withdrew in early January on the grounds that they were “wasteful,
ineffective, and harmful.”
Meloni and Merz committed to “exchange on hybrid threats, information resilience
and strategic communications,” as well as prioritizing a wide range of
cybersecurity policies such as the protection of critical infrastructure, cyber
capacity building projects and tackling cybercrime. They also said they will
“prioritize disruptive and dual-use technologies” for cyber defense.
The two European leaders also pushed to boost the EU’s intelligence-sharing
capacities, in particular the “hybrid fusion cell” within the EU Intelligence
and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN).
American investors have closed a $14 billion deal giving them control of the
U.S. version of TikTok, raising a host of questions about what’s next for the
social media app and its tens of millions of users.
Under the new ownership structure, a group of investors led by Silicon Valley
giant Oracle and the private equity firm Silver Lake will own more than 80
percent of the company, which draws 66 million daily users in the United States.
The deal is intended to insulate the social media company from influence by
China, avoiding a ban that Congress had mandated in 2024.
TikTok released some information about the deal in a Thursday night
announcement, but further details have yet to be made public, including whether
it complies with the 2024 law. It is also uncertain whether the agreement
sufficiently allays U.S. lawmakers’ concerns that the app endangers national
security.
Here are five crucial questions remaining about TikTok and its future:
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ALGORITHM?
TikTok’s algorithm has been key to the app’s success, as it’s
remarkably effective at curating a continuous feed of videos that keep users
scrolling. Lawmakers have expressed concern that the Chinese government could
use the algorithm to push propaganda or surveil users, a key reason Congress
passed legislation in 2024 requiring TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to spin
off an American version of the app.
In announcing the deal Thursday, TikTok said that the new owners “will retrain,
test, and update the content recommendation algorithm on U.S. user data.”
Those measures may allay some of the national security risks associated with the
algorithm, but it’s unclear if they go far enough to satisfy the 2024 law, which
prohibits “cooperation” between ByteDance and the U.S. version of TikTok on
operating the algorithm. Previous reports indicated that the U.S. version of
TikTok would license the algorithm from ByteDance, which could be another legal
stumbling block if the agreement involves continued coordination between the two
companies.
“The central issue is whether the TikTok U.S. entity actually owns and controls
the recommendation system, or whether it is merely licensing it,” said Chris
Krebs, former director of the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security
Agency. “A license means ByteDance still retains leverage over what the U.S.
platform shows its 170 million users.”
WILL TIKTOK STILL BE BANNED ON GOVERNMENT DEVICES?
Former President Joe Biden signed the No TikTok on Government Devices Act in
2022 to prohibit the use of the app on federal phones, tablets and other
devices, and at least 39 states, including California and New York, passed
similar bans. The House and Senate also have their own rules banning TikTok on
federal devices. (President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, the White
House and California Gov. Gavin Newsom all have active TikTok accounts,
however.)
Even with the deal in place, reversing the government device bans would require
new legislation from federal and state lawmakers, which could prove to be a tall
order. “The state bans presumably still can stay,” said Alan Rozenshtein, a
former attorney adviser in the Justice Department’s national security division
under President Barack Obama. “From a legal perspective, the president can’t
overturn [the federal law].”
COULD COMPANIES ENABLING TIKTOK STILL FACE CRIPPLING FINES UNDER A FUTURE
ADMINISTRATION?
TikTok temporarily went dark in the United States in January 2025 after the law
forcing a sale or ban took effect. The app came back online a short time later
after then President-elect Trump promised that no company, such as app stores or
internet service providers, would face the law’s daily fine of $5,000 per user
for flouting the ban, a penalty that could quickly add up to billions of
dollars.
But legal experts have consistently said an executive order or presidential
promise doesn’t trump a law, especially one already upheld by the U.S. Supreme
Court.
According to Rozenshtein, the 2024 law leaves open the possibility that a future
administration could declare the new arrangement illegal. There’s a five-year
statute of limitations for the government to challenge violations of federal
laws.
“Imagine a situation in which the new venture sells itself back to ByteDance —
obviously you’d want the next president to be able to say you’re clearly not
divested anymore,” Rozenshtein told POLITICO. “If a [future] president had those
powers, then presumably the president would also have the powers to say: ‘This
thing that my predecessor did was a lie to begin with, so obviously I’m yanking
it.’”
DOES THE DEAL ADDRESS THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS?
A White House official previously told POLITICO that the deal would resolve
Congress’ national security concerns because the Chinese government would not
have access to American users’ data, and because ByteDance would have less than
20 percent ownership of the U.S. app. Even so, congressional Republicans have
vowed to review the deal to ensure it follows the law.
“I don’t know what the framework says — but anything short of that, the
president would be violating congressional intent,” Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck
Grassley (R-Iowa) told POLITICO in September.
St. John’s University internet law professor Kate Klonick said the law has
enough wiggle room, and gives enough deference to the president, that the deal
could pass muster for the time being.
“The [deal] is probably sufficient for the law, because the law was sufficiently
vague — but for the letter of the law, not the spirit of the law,” she said.
“What people thought at the time were serious national security concerns [in
2024] now seems to kind of have been forgotten.”
HOW DOES THE DEAL ADDRESS CONCERNS ABOUT CHINA ACCESSING PEOPLE’S DATA?
Under the 2024 law, ByteDance and TikTok can’t enter into any data-sharing
agreements. Thursday’s announcement says the new American venture will store
user data in Oracle’s cloud, where it “will operate a comprehensive data privacy
and cybersecurity program that is audited and certified by third party
cybersecurity experts.”
That might be enough, according to Adam Conner, vice president for technology
policy at the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank.
“The data sharing question operationally should be solved by this [deal],” he
told POLITICO. However, Conner noted that particulars around the operation of
the algorithm and advertising may lead to violations of the law.
China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said a new European Commission proposal to
restrict high-risk tech vendors from critical supply chains amounted to “blatant
protectionism,” warning European officials that Beijing will take “necessary
measures” to protect Chinese firms.
Beijing has “serious concerns” over the bill, Chinese foreign ministry
spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters, according to state news agencies’
reports.
“Using non-technical standards to forcibly restrict or even prohibit companies
from participating in the market, without any factual evidence, seriously
violates market principles and fair competition rules,” Guo said.
The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled its proposal to revamp the bloc’s
Cybersecurity Act. The bill seeks to crack down on risky technology vendors in
critical supply chains ranging across energy, transport, health care and other
sectors.
Though the legislation itself does not name any specific countries or companies,
it is widely seen as being targeted at China. 5G suppliers Huawei and ZTE are in
the EU’s immediate crosshairs, while other Chinese vendors are expected to be
hit at a later stage.
European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier responded to the Chinese foreign
ministry, saying Europe has allowed high-risk vendors from outside the EU in
strategic sectors for “far too long.”
“We are indeed radically changing this. Because we cannot be naive anymore,”
Regnier said in a statement. The exclusion of high-risk suppliers will always be
based on “strong risk assessments” and in coordination with EU member countries,
he said.
China “urges the EU to avoid going further down the wrong path of
protectionism,” the Chinese foreign ministry’s Guo told reporters. He added the
EU bill would “not only fail to achieve so-called security but will also incur
huge costs,” saying some restrictions on using Huawei had already “caused
enormous economic losses” in Europe in past years.
European telecom operators warned Tuesday that the law would impose
multi-billion euro costs on the industry if restrictions on using Huawei and ZTE
were to become mandatory across Europe.
A Huawei spokesperson said in a statement that laws to block suppliers based on
their country of origin violate the EU’s “basic legal principles of fairness,
non-discrimination, and proportionality,” as well as its World Trade
Organization obligations. The company “reserve[s] all rights to safeguard our
legitimate interests,” the spokesperson said.
ZTE did not respond to requests for comment on the EU’s plans.
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Kriege werden längst auch unsichtbar geführt: im Netz, über Desinformation,
Sabotage und Angriffe auf kritische Infrastruktur. Cyberattacken auf Flughäfen,
Stromnetze und Behörden zeigen, wie real die Bedrohung bereits ist.
In diesem Berlin Playbook Spezial spricht Rixa Fürsen mit Thomas Daum,
Vizeadmiral der Bundeswehr und Inspekteur für Cyber- und Informationsraum, über
die neue Eskalationsstufe hybrider Angriffe. Daum erklärt, warum Cyberangriffe
heute gezielt Unruhe stiften sollen, wie eng sie mit Desinformation verzahnt
sind und weshalb Deutschland sich nicht erst auf das oft genannte Jahr 2029,
sondern auf frühere Szenarien einstellen muss.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski
und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international,
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