Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music In dieser Sonderfolge spricht Gordon Repinski mit zwei Experten, die sich regelmäßig mit unsichtbaren, hybriden Angriffen beschäftigen: Sinan Selen, Präsident des Bundesverfassungsschutzes, und Marika Linntam, Botschafterin Estlands in Deutschland. Zusammen haben sie auf der Sicherheitstagung des Bundesverfassungsschutzes und des „Verbandes für Sicherheit in der Wirtschaft“ besprochen, wie Russland mit Nadelstichen versucht, die deutsche Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu destabilisieren. Während Estland durch jahrelange Erfahrung eine breite gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Resilienz gegen Desinformation und Sabotage entwickelt hat, warnt Sinan Selen vor einem erheblichen Nachholbedarf in deutschen Unternehmen und der breiten Öffentlichkeit. Im Gespräch geht es deswegen auch darum, wie die Sensibilität gesteigert werden kann, ohne dabei paranoid zu werden. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠ Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: ⁠@gordon.repinski⁠ | X: ⁠@GordonRepinski⁠. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 ⁠information@axelspringer.de⁠ Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

EU efforts to ban Huawei from 5G networks won the backing of a top court advisor Thursday, in a legal opinion that is likely to galvanize security hawks seeking to restrict Chinese tech in Europe. A lawyer for the EU’s top court in Luxembourg said rules blocking telecom operators from using risky suppliers can be set by the EU, not just national governments. They also said telecom operators don’t need to be compensated for the cost of replacing Huawei equipment. It’s a blow for Europe’s telecom giants, which have pushed back against banning China’s Huawei from 5G procurement and have told EU officials that large-scale bans are an “act of self-harm” that could even bring down networks. It is a win for China hawks, who have fought to impose tougher measures against Huawei — with strong backing from Washington. The EU has spent years trying to persuade national governments to voluntarily kick out Huawei and ZTE over concerns that their presence in European telecom networks could enable large-scale spying and surveillance by the Chinese government. It is now working on broader rules that seek to reduce the bloc’s reliance on foreign “high-risk” suppliers and limit foreign government control over its digital networks. The case was brought by Estonian telecom operator Elisa, which is seeking compensation for the costs of removing Huawei and is challenging whether the EU has the competence to ask for restrictions on Chinese vendors. Thursday’s opinion said national security authorities can follow EU guidance when imposing bans on Huawei. The Court of Justice is expected to issue its final ruling on the case later this year, and may take the opinion from Advocate General Tamara Ćapet into account. Laszlo Toth, head of Europe at global telecom lobby association GSMA, said in reaction that “blanket rip-and-replace mandates are an unreasonable approach to what is a highly nuanced situation.” The industry considers national security measures should remain the responsibility of national governments, he said. Huawei said the opinion “recognizes that all restrictive measures with regards to telecom equipment must be subject to judicial review, under a strict standard of proportionality” and that “decisions cannot rest on general suspicion … but must be based on a specific assessment.” “We expect EU or national restrictions to be scrutinized under this principle,” Huawei said. BOON FOR BRUSSELS Progress towards an EU-wide ban has been sluggish, with many national governments dragging their feet, in part due to fears of Chinese trade retaliation. European Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen told POLITICO in January that she is “not satisfied” with voluntary efforts by EU capitals to kick out Huawei. The EU executive now wants binding rules, laid out in a proposal in January. Large telecom players in Europe have pushed back hard against restrictions on Huawei, arguing that blocking risky vendors is a national security measure — an area handled exclusively by national governments. Efforts to clamp down on risky vendors should respect “the competence of member states for national security matters,” industry group Connect Europe said in January. Thursday’s opinion suggests operators will have a harder time fighting the bans.  It also bodes badly for operators hoping to get compensated for ripping out Huawei equipment. Many have sought financial support and compensation for the measures, which they say add massive unexpected costs to network rollouts. The EU executive previously estimated that phasing out “specific high-risk equipment” would cost between €3.4 billion and €4.3 billion per year for three years. Only if the burden for replacing Huawei is “disproportionately heavy,” could telcos seek compensation, according to the opinion. Elisa said it welcomed the legal recommendation that all decisions made on the grounds of national security should still be subject to judicial review. It said the restrictions in Estonia “amounted to a deprivation of its ownership rights … as the impacted equipment has become unusable” and that Elisa “already swapped the majority of its network equipment to Nokia.” Chinese vendor ZTE, the smaller rival of Huawei, did not respond to a request for comment. Mathieu Pollet contributed reporting.

BLACK CUBE, LEAKED TAPES AND CORRUPTION: ISRAELI SPY FIRM CRASHES SLOVENIA’S ELECTION  Foreign interference looms over the vote after accusations that a private intelligence company meddled in the campaign.   By ALI WALKER, SEBASTIAN STARCEVIC and ANTOANETA ROUSSI in Ljubljana Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Slovenia’s election campaign was already steeped in acrimony.   Then operatives from a notable private intelligence company, founded by former members of the Israel Defense Forces, flew to Ljubljana in the depths of winter, Slovenian law enforcement authorities say.  The private jet that landed on a freezing December day was carrying Dan Zorella, CEO of Black Cube; Giora Eiland, former head of Israel’s National Security Council; and two other men, according to the authorities, who allege they were engaged in “covert surveillance and wiretapping.”  The Black Cube operatives now stand accused by Slovenian law enforcement of helping to leak recordings designed to undermine Prime Minister Robert Golob’s government by linking it to corruption, days before a knife-edge national election. The tapes show prominent Slovenian figures apparently discussing corruption, illegal lobbying and the misuse of state funds. Representatives for Black Cube did not respond to POLITICO’s requests for comment on the allegations. Slovenia goes to the polls Sunday for a vote that pits liberal Golob against the right-wing populist Janez Janša, who currently has a narrow lead according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. Golob has warned that victory for Janša — a pro-MAGA, four-time former premier — would threaten the fabric of the EU. For its part, Janša’s party routinely depicts Golob as a corrupt former energy tycoon.  The Black Cube allegations land at a moment of heightened anxiety in Europe over covert foreign interference in democratic elections, from influence operations to political sabotage. In Slovenia, they risk further polarizing a race that has come to symbolize a broader clash between liberal, pro-EU forces and an emboldened right-wing populist movement.  Golob’s left-liberal coalition and Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) are currently looking to utilize the leaked tape scandal to buttress attacks on each other. The SDS says the recordings — which feature a former minister, a top lawyer and other prominent figures — are proof of corruption at the highest levels of Slovenian society; while Golob’s supporters say the scandal is evidence that Janša is collaborating with foreign entities to retake power.   “The fact that covert surveillance and wiretapping in this case involve a private intelligence agency from Israel points to something deeply troubling. This is not just another incident, it raises serious concerns about the integrity of democratic processes in Slovenia,” Golob said this week.   “Any attempt by foreign actors to interfere in elections in a democratic member state of the European Union is unacceptable,” he added.   During a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Vojko Volk, Slovenia’s state secretary for national and international security, said that Black Cube representatives visited the country four times and that on Dec. 11 a team, including Zorella, spent time on the street that is home to SDS headquarters — though he stopped short of saying they went into the building.   Janša has threatened to sue activist Nika Kovač — from the Institute 8 organization that lobbies on social issues — who helped publish the initial report alleging that Black Cube operatives had made repeated visits to Slovenia and met with SDS officials.  Former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša attends a meeting in Brussels, Belgium on May 31, 2022. | Kenzo Tribouillard/AFP via Getty Images “Janez Janša will probably be surprised, but we are happy that the Slovenian Democratic Party will file lawsuits over revelations about the activities of the Israeli intelligence agency Black Cube in Slovenia,” Kovač told POLITICO. “We welcome all proceedings in which it can be revealed and clarified what this ‘Private Mossad’ was doing in Slovenia and with whom.”  Janša’s party said that “a monument should be erected in the middle of Ljubljana” in tribute to the Black Cube officials, if they had “truly uncovered all this corruption of unimaginable proportions.” On Wednesday night, Janša admitted that he had met with Black Cube’s Eiland, but said he could not recall on which date. ‘THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY’  Black Cube, a private intelligence firm founded in 2010, has offices in Tel Aviv, London and Madrid. It was started by Zorella and Avi Yanus, both of whom served in the Israel Defense Forces.   The firm’s methods — often rooted in human intelligence and undercover operations — have drawn sustained scrutiny, most notably in the case of convicted sex offender and Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein.  He was accused of hiring Black Cube to monitor journalists and female accusers, using operatives with fabricated identities to extract information in what became a defining example of private espionage deployed with the aim of suppressing allegations. A Black Cube board member later apologized. Black Cube’s advisory orbit has included prominent former Israeli intelligence officials such as Meir Dagan and Efraim Halevy, reinforcing its image as part of a broader ecosystem in which statecraft techniques migrate into the private sector.  In 2022, Romanian prosecutors convicted Black Cube operatives, including Zorella, in absentia of spying on anti-corruption chief Laura Kövesi. The men struck a plea deal with prosecutors. The firm also targeted critics of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán using fake LinkedIn profiles; while recordings later surfaced in pro-government media. A company spokesperson said at the time that it “always operates in full compliance of the law.” Slovenia’s Intelligence and Security Agency (SOVA) delivered a report to the National Security Council this week, which endorsed the claims about Black Cube’s meddling in the campaign.  The agency’s director “briefed us on facts indicating direct foreign interference with the Slovenian elections,” Volk said Wednesday morning. According to the SOVA director, “this interference was most likely commissioned from within Slovenia. Based on the available data, representatives of the company Black Cube have visited Slovenia four times in the last six months.”  “Black Cube is known for releasing fabricated material at precisely planned times, in this case, just before the elections,” Volk added. “These activities are intended to discredit individuals politically, which may pose a threat to national security and influence democratic elections.”  OPPOSITION ATTACKS  Beyond the espionage claims, the polarized campaign has been marked by a familiar pattern of political attacks.  Member of the European Parliament Romana Tomc is pictured at a meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2025. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images If the opposition gets into power, its first order of business is lowering taxes, said SDS MEP Romana Tomc, as she took aim at the governing coalition on finances.  “What we have now after four years of Golob’s government is economic decline,” Tomc told POLITICO. “He [Golob] raised taxes a lot, and we will do what we can to lower them, because we would like people to have more in their pockets, and not only in the state budget.”  Tomc, who is also vice president of the European People’s Party group, hit out at Golob’s recent assertion to POLITICO that Janša, along with Hungarian premier Viktor Orbán, “will try to break up the European Union itself.”  SDS wants to reform the bloc rather than destroy it, she argued. “Our party, with the leadership of Janša, we are really pro-, pro-, pro-European,” Tomc said.  “We are really trying to make Europe better, to make it more functional. And we have, of course, no intention of destroying Europe,” she added. “Being critical to some policies within Europe, I think this is completely normal.”  With days to go before the election, Tomc launched a campaign against the EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who hails from Golob’s party, arguing Kos misled the European Parliament when she denied collaborating with Yugoslavia’s secret police in her youth.  Europe’s biggest political group, the EPP, on Wednesday called for a special hearing in the European Parliament to grill Kos. ‘HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY’  During an interview at his party office in Ljubljana last month, Golob told POLITICO the election marked a “historic opportunity” for Slovenia to return the left-liberal coalition to power, which will “bring more stability to the country and most probably also to the neighborhood.”  Golob said he is determined to use a potential second mandate to drive forward a health care reform and boost the country’s economic competitiveness, after a first term that was marked by enduring troubles: Russia’s war on Ukraine; an energy crisis; and high inflation.  On Janša, Golob was scathing, accusing him of wasting public money and weaponizing law enforcement during his previous term in office. He also said that Janša would likely be inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies.   “We have a far-right leader who has been in power for three terms already, every time was worse. So the first time he didn’t do the things that we are discussing, but every term he comes, it gets worse when it comes to civil rights and the misuse of the law enforcement,” he added.  Golob leads a left-liberal coalition that includes his Freedom Movement, the Social Democrats and The Left, but he said that he’s willing to expand the tent for a second term. “We are open to include any other party or partner that is willing to support the extension and completion of our reforms,” he said.   According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls,Janša’s SDS leads the Freedom Movement by five percentage points, though Golob can remain in power by teaming up against him with other parties.  During the interview, before the Black Cube allegations, Golob had flagged what appeared to be increased online bot activity making its presence felt in the election campaign.  “Organized hybrid war started on social media, but we cannot attribute it yet to any state or political party — even though our right-populists are enjoying it very much and supporting it when it comes to sharing the information,” he said.  Ali Walker reported from Ljubljana. Seb Starcevic reported from Strasbourg. Antoaneta Roussi reported from Prague.  

Washington has harshly criticized the Czech Republic for not spending enough on defense after Czech lawmakers passed a budget for 2026 that allocates only 1.7 percent of GDP to military expenditures. “All allies must bear their share of responsibility and uphold The Hague commitment on defense,” the U.S. embassy in Prague posted on X Thursday. “These numbers are not arbitrary. It is about responding to the current situation — and that situation requires 5 percent to be the standard. No excuses, no exceptions.” NATO allies agreed a new defense spending target at last year’s alliance summit in The Hague. The new goal was set at 3.5 percent of GDP for purely military expenditures and 1.5 percent for related outlays such as on cybersecurity. The 1.7 percent figure for 2026 places Prague among NATO’s lowest defense spenders. Nationalist-populist Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš may have built a reputation as the “Czech Donald Trump,” but that isn’t shielding him from Washington’s wrath. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker added a stern message on X, reminding Prague that “all Allies must pull their weight.” Czech President Petr Pavel, a retired army general and former top NATO official, also criticized the overall cuts in the 2026 budget. But while he has been at odds with Babiš over defense policy, he has pledged not to veto the budget proposal. Spain also refused last summer to endorse NATO’s new 5-percent-of-GDP defense spending goal, but on the other hand has pledged to meet the alliance’s so-called capability targets, which define the amount of military equipment each country needs to have.

Poland is looking into whether an attempted cyberattack on a nuclear research facility was carried out by Iran, the government said on Thursday. The country’s digital minister Krzysztof Gawkowski said in an emailed statement that Poland had “identified an attempted cyberattack on the servers of the National Centre for Nuclear Research,” which authorities had thwarted. He told local media that the attack was carried out “in the past few days,” Reuters reported.  The nuclear center said in a statement that “all safety systems operated according to procedures.” A reactor is “operating safely and smoothly at full power,” Jakub Kupecki, the center’s director said in the statement. The facility carries out research into nuclear energy; Poland does not have nuclear weapons of its own.  Polish cybersecurity services and the energy ministry are working with the facility, Gawkowski said.  The minister told local media that there are early signals suggesting the attack came from Iran, Reuters reported. “The first identifications of the entry vectors … are related to Iran,” he said, adding that more investigation is required.  Gawkowski added that hackers could also have used indicators linking the attack to Iran in efforts to hide their real origins. Poland has faced a huge number of Russian cyberattacks since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Western cyber and intelligence agencies have warned critical entities to be on high alert for Iranian cyberattacks following the start of the conflict in late February. The Iranian embassy in Warsaw did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

LONDON — Days into the U.S. war with Iran, the U.K. government is retooling to cope with a crisis that is already squeezing British defense capabilities and driving up energy prices. Teams of officials are being redeployed around Whitehall, including at the Ministry of Defence, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and departments covering energy, transport and trade, in order to cope with fresh demands. Two people working in the civil service, granted anonymity because they like others in this piece were not authorized to speak publicly, said reassignments had been made on a three-to-four-month basis. A third person said internal government assessments are not necessarily that specific — but that they expect to be dealing with the war on Iran and its fallout “for the long haul.”  The government’s central assumption is that the direct, kinetic phase of the conflict will last weeks but its tail could be much longer. While the U.K. is straining to keep out of the conflict — granting only limited use of its military bases to the U.S. — ministers accept there will be a huge knock-on effect from the Middle East crisis. That includes on hot-button cost-of-living issues that are central to embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chances of political survival. MILITARY RESPONSE The Ministry of Defence is focused on the immediate task of trying to protect U.K. military assets and personnel, while the government’s other top concerns were highlighted Wednesday by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ audience with oil and gas sector representatives and Treasury Minister Lucy Rigby’s meeting with insurers. “I don’t think anyone’s expecting this thing to be over quickly,” said one British diplomat.  The U.K. has been preparing for potential U.S. strikes on Iran since the beginning of the year, according to four officials, including by surging fighter planes to the region. The MoD moved to a higher level of force protection — measures designed to safeguard military personnel and facilities — in response to mass unrest in Iran and the U.S. bolstering its presence in the Gulf.  Treasury Minister James Murray alluded publicly to these operations, telling Times Radio: “I’m not going to get into exactly the details of what happened. But what I’m clear about is the defensive capability that we’ve been building up in recent weeks.” Nevertheless, two government officials said the eventual action by the U.S. and Israel was beyond what they had expected, as was Iran’s response — which they described as “haphazard.” The U.K. had some foresight of the U.S. intention to move, said one of these officials, but they had far less indication of where Iranian retaliation would fall, which partly explained the apparent slowness of British warship HMS Dragon and helicopters going to the aid of the U.K.’s Royal Air Force base on Cyprus. Jacob Parakilas, research leader at the RAND Europe think tank, said: “RAF Akrotiri was certainly a conceivable target in the event of hostilities but it’s neither the easiest nor the most significant target for Iran.” A Western official said the decision to send the warship to the Mediterranean only landed on U.K. Chief of Defence Staff Rich Knighton’s desk at 9.30 a.m. on Tuesday, and was approved soon afterwards. The MoD is one of the ministries which has redeployed staff internally to work on Iran, with high priority attached to ensuring that the U.K.’s changing posture does not damage existing NATO commitments or sap energy from efforts to support Ukraine. Starmer has already sought to link the Middle East conflict to the war in Ukraine, saying Ukrainian experts will help shoot down Iranian drones, and his government is expected to call on industry to help meet the need for stronger air and missile defenses. Parakilas predicted the conflict would not require a massive outlay of further British defense capabilities, since the U.K.’s naval base in Bahrain is heavily defended and can meet the threat of occasional attacks by Shahed-style drones.  But, he warned: “That should not be cause for complacency.” In this instance, Parakilas said, the U.K. and most of its facilities are at the edge of Iran’s reach — “but that will not necessarily be the case in future conflicts.” TERROR RISK Elsewhere, the Home Office and security services are monitoring for a heightened risk of domestic threats. On Monday the National Cyber Security Centre — part of the GCHQ digital intelligence agency — issued a fresh alert in response to the situation in the Middle East, calling on organizations to review their cybersecurity. It noted that although it views there to be “no current significant change” in the direct cyber threat from Iran to the U.K. this may change due to the “fast-evolving nature of the conflict.” The FCDO is meanwhile leading repatriation efforts described as “unprecedented,” by Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper with hundreds of thousands of Britons currently stranded in the Gulf. Above all, civil servants are scrambling to deal with potential implications for the energy sector and international trade — two areas that risk upending the unpopular Starmer government’s bid to slash the cost of living. Households could see more than £500 added to their energy bills this summer if hostilities continue, the Resolution Foundation think tank calculated earlier this week. Keir Starmer Starmer told MPs that “the question of energy supply right now is a serious one.” | Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images Starmer told MPs at prime minister’s questions Wednesday that “the question of energy supply right now is a serious one” and “we are doing all we can, with allies, to make sure that it is preserved. It is vital that we keep trade flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.” The U.K. is currently considering options for protecting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including sending naval escorts, according to Western officials.  Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has held talks with representatives from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as energy giants BP and Shell about global energy markets in recent days. A third government official said the hope is that consumers are protected for a while because Britain’s energy price cap — a limit on the amount suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity — is locked in for the next three months. But they acknowledged there would be pressure to replicate several support schemes drawn up after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even as they cautioned that the need for such a move is a long way off. Treasury Minister Lucy Rigby met insurance firm Lloyds of London Wednesday to discuss how the sector is being affected. A fourth Whitehall official said that while commercial insurance remains available, additional premiums may be needed for vessels transiting these areas. A jump in energy prices could, in turn, hold back the Bank of England from continuing on its path to reducing interest rates, economists have warned – something that would represent a significant blow to Reeves and the government’s wider battle with inflation. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research think tank has carried out analysis which finds that if the shock to energy prices is more than just temporary, the U.K.’s central bank may have to go in the other direction — raising the all-important Bank Rate from its current 3.75 percent rate to back above 4 percent. “The Bank of England will have to contend with a shock to global energy prices, with the question of persistence hanging over their heads. This will cause problems for Rachel Reeves as financing costs increase, putting further pressure on an already precarious fiscal outlook,”  said the NIESR’s Ed Cornforth. Mason Boycott-Owen and Charlie Cooper contributed reporting.

LONDON — The Iranian regime is warning it will attack European cities in any country that joins Donald Trump’s military operation and governments across the region are stepping up security in response. So far, Iranian drones have already targeted Cyprus, with one striking a British Royal Air Force base on the island, and others shot down before they could hit. That prompted the U.K., France and Greece to send jets, warships and helicopters to Cyprus to protect the country from further drone attacks. But with the British, French and German leaders saying they are ready to launch defensive military action in the Middle East, Tehran threatened to retaliate against these countries with attacks on European soil. “It would be an act of war. Any such act against Iran would be regarded as complicity with the aggressors. It would be regarded as an act of war against Iran,” Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, told Iranian state media. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister who now leads NATO, warned on Tuesday that Tehran posed a threat that reached deep into Europe. “Let’s be absolutely clear-eyed to what’s happening here,” Rutte said. “Iran is close to getting its hands on a nuclear capability and on a ballistic missile capability, which is posing a threat not only to the region — the Middle East, including posing an existential threat to Israel — it is also posing a huge threat to us here in Europe.” Iran is “an exporter of chaos” responsible over decades for terrorist plots and assassination attempts, including against people living on European soil, he said.  Here, POLITICO sets out what Iran is capable of, and where European countries may be at greatest risk.  MISSILES AIMED AT ATHENS AND EVEN BERLIN According to reports, Iran has been developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, which would put European and even American territory potentially within range, said Antonio Giustozzi from the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London. It is not clear whether, under constant attack, Tehran would be able to manufacture and deploy an experimental missile like this, he said.  “Realistically, the further away you fire them, the less precise they will be,” Giustozzi told POLITICO. “Let’s say they had four or five long-range missiles. There may be some value to target something in Europe just to create some excitement and scare public opinion from intervening.”  Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is known to include several medium-range systems that stretch to roughly 2,000 kilometers, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Threat database. The solid-fueled Sejjil and Khorramshahr missiles are both assessed to have about that range, which would extend to parts of southeastern Europe from Iranian territory, including areas of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, depending on the launch location. Romania has a U.S. missile shield site at Deveselu in the southern part of the country which was built to intercept potential missile attacks from Iran. This week, military security was stepped up at the site, according to Romania’s defense minister.  Tehran has long described 2,000 kilometers as a self-imposed ceiling for its ballistic missile program — a limit that keeps most of Europe outside of the envelope while preserving regional reach.  Defence Express, a Kyiv-based defense consultancy group, said the Khorramshahr missile may be capable of hitting targets 3,000 kilometers away if it was fitted with a lighter warhead, potentially bringing Berlin and Rome within range. However, the number of such long-range missiles in Iran’s arsenal is unlikely to be large.  ‘SHAHED’ DRONES AND TOYS PACKED WITH EXPLOSIVES  Iran has invested heavily in drone development and production, and these uncrewed projectiles may be its best flexible weapon. Iran’s “Shahed” drones have been deployed by Russian forces since the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These one-way attack drones have a range claimed to be as much as 2,500 kilometers.  To reach targets inside European territory they would need to fly at low altitude across countries such as Turkey and Jordan, though Cyprus has already found out it is within range. Analysts believe the drone that hit U.K.’s RAF Akrotiri air base in Cyprus was likely a shahed-type, and may have been fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy.  But Giustozzi said commercially available drones — even toys — could be used to cause havoc inside Europe. Iran is known to have a network of sleeper agents operating across many countries in Europe, he said, who use criminal groups to carry out attacks.  They could be tasked with a coordinated effort to fly drones over civilian airports, forcing flights to be halted and causing chaos to air traffic across Europe, he said. This would be cheap and easy to do. More ambitious attacks could include striking military targets with drones loaded with explosives. A residential building and cars are damaged by a Shahed drone attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, last month. The drones have been deployed by Russian forces since the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. | Pavlo Pakhomenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images But such risk may be low, Giustozzi said, as Iran may not have been able to smuggle bomb making components into European countries as this has not been its primary mode of operation in the region in recent years.  HIT SQUADS AND TERRORISTS  Tehran’s recent focus has been on intimidating and targeting people and groups who are critical of the regime, particularly among the large Iranian diaspora dispersed widely across European countries, according to analysts.  According to an intelligence summary from one Western government, Iran has a long record of plots to assassinate and attack targets inside Europe. Its state-sponsored terrorism involves a mix of direct operations by Iranian forces and, according to the intelligence summary, a growing reliance on organized criminal gangs to maintain “plausible deniability.”  In the past decade, incidents have included the arrest of Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi for providing explosives to a couple tasked with bombing a large rally of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Assadi was sentenced to 20 years in prison.  After massive cyberattacks against state infrastructure, the Albanian government formally severed all ties with Iran in 2022. Four years earlier, Albania expelled the Iranian ambassador and several diplomats for plotting a truck bomb attack against an Iranian dissident camp. The Dutch government accused Iran of involvement in the targeted killing of two dissidents, in 2015 and 2017.  Suspected Iranian-backed assassination plots and other attacks have also been reported in Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Sweden, and the U.K., among other countries in Europe.  CYBER ATTACKS  The threat to Europeans from Iran is not just physical, with the regime long being regarded as a capable actor in cyber warfare.   Experts and officials warned Iran could launch fresh cyber operations against Europe in the wake of the war started by the U.S. and Israel, either by targeting governments directly or by hitting critical infrastructure operators.  “We have to monitor now the situation very carefully when it comes to our cyber security and especially our critical infrastructure,” European Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen told POLITICO. “We know that the online dimension is also very important, the recruiting channel and especially the propaganda is also spread very much online.” Iran is typically seen as one of the big four cyber adversaries to the West — alongside Russia, China and North Korea. So far, however, there is little evidence to suggest it’s actively targeting Europe. In fact, Iran’s cyber activity has largely stopped since the U.S. bombing began, according to one senior European cybersecurity official, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing assessments.  If and when European countries make their support for U.S. and Israeli activities more explicit, that will likely draw them into the firing line, cyber industry officials said. “Europe should definitely expect that exactly what happened in the Gulf could happen and should happen in Europe,” said Gil Messing, chief of staff at Israeli cyber firm Check Point. EU Commissioner Henna Virkkunen spoke of the need to monitor cyber security and especially critical infrastructure. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images Messing said his firm is already seeing evidence of cyberattacks in Cyprus, the only EU country that Iran has targeted with physical attacks so far. There’s no evidence of attacks in other European countries but it’s likely coming down the tracks, he said. And if attacks do take place, Iran’s capabilities, though lessened in recent years, remain significant, experts said. Iran’s security and intelligence services have cyber units comprising hundreds of people, with tens of millions of dollars of funding, Messing said. “If the regime lasts,” the senior official quoted above said, “they will be back.” Victor Goury-Laffont, Laura Kayali, Antoaneta Roussi, Joshua Berlinger and Sebastian Starcevic contributed reporting.

Chinese technology giant Huawei is participating in 16 projects funded by the European Commission’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program despite being dubbed a high-risk supplier. The Commission restricted Huawei from accessing Horizon projects in 2023 after saying that it (and another Chinese telecom supplier, ZTE) posed “materially higher risks than other 5G suppliers” in relation to cybersecurity and foreign influence. However, public data reviewed by POLITICO’s EU Influence newsletter shows that Huawei still takes part in several projects, many of which are in sensitive fields like cloud computing, 5G and 6G telecom technology and data centers. These projects mean Huawei has been working alongside universities and tech companies in Spain, France, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Finland and Italy. It also has access to the intellectual property generated by the projects, as the contracts require the sharing of information as well as joint ownership of the results between partners. A Commission spokesperson confirmed that of the 16 projects, 15 were signed before the restrictions took place. The remaining project “was signed in 2025 and was assessed as falling outside the scope of the existing restrictions.” Many of the projects started in January 2023, with the contracts running out at the end of this year, while others will last until 2027, 2028 and 2030. “Huawei participates in and implements projects funded under Horizon Europe in a lawful and compliant manner,” a company spokesperson said. One of the projects is to develop data privacy and protection tools in the fields of AI and big data, along with Italy’s National Research Council, the University of Malaga, the University of Toulouse, the University of Calabria, and a Bavarian high-tech research institute for software-intensive systems. Huawei received €207,000 to lead the work on “design, implementation, and evaluation of use cases,” according to the contract for that project, seen by POLITICO. COMMISSION CRACKDOWN Last month the Commission proposed a new Cybersecurity Act that would restrict Huawei from critical telecoms networks under EU law, after years of asking national capitals to do so voluntarily. “I’m not satisfied [with] how the member states … have been implementing our 5G Toolbox,” the Commission’s executive VP for tech and security policy, Henna Virkkunen, told POLITICO at the time, referring to EU guidelines to deal with high-risk vendors. “We know that we still have high-risk vendors in our 5G networks, in the critical parts … so now we will have stricter rules on this.” The Commission is also working on measures to cut Chinese companies out of lucrative public contracts. Bart Groothuis, a liberal MEP working on the Cybersecurity Act, told POLITICO that the Commission should “honor the promises and commitments” it made “and push them out.” “They should be barred from participating. Period.” Huawei was also involved in an influence scandal last year, with Belgian authorities investigating whether the tech giant exerted undue influence over EU lawmakers. The scandal led to Huawei’s being banned from lobbying on the premises of the European Commission and the European Parliament.

BRUSSELS — European Parliament members on Monday slammed the Spanish government for using Huawei to store judicial wiretaps, with one leading lawmaker warning Madrid is putting its “crown jewels” at risk. The Spanish government has drawn criticism since the summer after it awarded a multimillion euro contract to Huawei for the storage of judicial wiretaps — a move that led the United States to threaten to cease intelligence sharing with Madrid. The outcry over Spain’s use of the Chinese tech giant for sensitive services lays bare how Europe continues to grapple with how to secure its digital systems against security threats. The European Union considers Huawei to be a high-risk supplier and wants to crack down on countries that still afford it broad market access. The EU proposed new draft cybersecurity legislation last month that, if approved, would force EU member countries to kick Huawei out of their telecoms networks, after years of trying to get capitals to ban the Chinese vendor voluntarily.  Lawmakers from several political groups said Spain’s contract with the Chinese tech giant could endanger the EU as a whole.  “We cannot operate in a union where one of the states actively strips high-risk vendors from its networks while another entrusts them with the crown jewels of its law enforcement,” said Markéta Gregorová, a Czech Pirate Party lawmaker who is part of the Greens group. Gregorová leads negotiations on a cyber bill that would give the EU the power to force Huawei and other — often Chinese — suppliers out of critical infrastructure in Europe. “When you introduce a high-risk vendor … we do not just risk a localized data breach, we risk poisoning the well of European intelligence sharing,” she said on Monday. Juan Ignacio Zoido Álvarez, a member of Spain’s center-right opposition party, said the decision puts “the entirety of the EU at risk.” The Spanish government has defended the contract it struck for storing wiretaps. Spain’s Interior Ministry said in a statement that the government had awarded a contract to “European companies,” which then bought storage products. “There is no risk to security, technological and legal sovereignty, nor is there any foreign interference or threat to the custody of evidence,” the ministry said. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska told the Spanish parliament last September that Telefónica, the country’s telecom champion, operated a state surveillance system called SITEL and that storage “cabinets” had been integrated into that system.   Bloomberg reported last July that Huawei equipment is not used for classified information, with one government official saying the storage “represents a minor part of a watertight, audited, isolated and certified system.” On Monday, Juan Fernando López Aguilar, a prominent member of the European Parliament for the Socialists and Democrats group and a member of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchéz’s party in Spain, defended Madrid’s contract and pushed back on EU moves to intervene on the issue. In terms of “security, espionage, or violation of technological sovereignty,” there is “no risk,” Aguilar said. Huawei did not respond to a request for comment.