LONDON — Police launched an investigation Monday after four ambulances belonging
to a Jewish community ambulance service were set on fire in north London.
The Metropolitan Police were called to Golders Green, where there is a large
Jewish community, early Monday after four Hatzalah ambulances were set alight.
In a statement the Met said the arson attack is being treated as an “antisemitic
hate crime.”
Keir Starmer condemned the “deeply shocking antisemitic arson attack.”
Writing on X, the British prime minister said: “My thoughts are with the Jewish
community who are waking up this morning to this horrific news. Antisemitism has
no place in our society.”
Health Secretary Wes Streeting echoed Starmer’s comments calling the event a
“sickening attack on Jewish ambulances.” He urged the public to “stand together
against antisemitic hatred.”
No injuries were reported and the fires have since been put out, but nearby
houses were evacuated as a precaution.
Explosions linked to the attack were also reported. The Met said it believes
those were linked to gas canisters on the ambulances.
The attack comes months after two people were killed in a terrorist attack at a
Manchester synagogue last October.
Superintendent Sarah Jackson said police are looking for three suspects.
“We know this incident will cause a great deal of community concern and officers
remain on scene to carry out urgent enquiries,” she added.
Tag - Roads
ZAGROS MOUNTAINS, Iraq — About 5 kilometers from Iran, aircraft roar overhead.
Are the planes American, Israeli, Iranian? The Kurdish fighter shrugged and
urged haste. The final stretch to his militia’s base could be reached only on
foot, along a steep path covered in loose rock. Out in the open, everyone is
vulnerable.
A tunnel leads to the underground base in a sliver of the Zagros Mountains in
northeastern Iraq. The Iranian-Kurdish guerrilla group, the Kurdistan Free Life
Party, is careful to keep its exact location secret. Visitors must switch their
smartphones to flight mode before handing them over upon entry.
The Kurdistan Free Life Party is in waiting mode, poised along Iran’s western
border to move in if a weakened regime opens up a path to strike it. The Axel
Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, was granted rare
access to the group’s base and its members, who discussed its ideology, goals
and under what conditions they’d go into Iran.
Militia representative Bahar Avrin said in an interview inside the base that the
organization already has elements “inside” Iran, and that deploying a larger
force against Tehran is ultimately a question of the right timing and
conditions. The border between northern Iraq and Iran runs through the Zagros
Mountains and is considered porous — for smugglers, locals and the handful of
militias operating there.
The Kurdistan Free Life Party, often referred to by its Kurdish acronym PJAK, is
part of a coalition of six Kurdish militia groups that want to topple Iran’s
Islamist regime and usher in a government that is more democratic and grants
more rights and autonomy to Iranian Kurds in Iran.
President Donald Trump has said Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish groups are “willing”
to participate in a ground offensive against Tehran — but he has said he ruled
out the idea to avoid making the war “any more complex than it already is.”
A Kurdish assault could spark a sectarian power struggle that destabilizes Iran.
And key U.S. allies with their own Kurdish minorities — Iraq and Turkey — have
warned the idea could spread unrest elsewhere in the Middle East.
The idea could nonetheless prove tempting for Trump as the war, now in its third
week, drags on. The ruling regime in Tehran has not capitulated despite
punishing airstrikes that have killed scores of its top leaders. Trump could
find himself looking for military options that do not trigger the political risk
that would accompany deployment of U.S. ground troops.
“The president never takes anything fully off the table,” said Victoria Coates,
who served as deputy national security adviser for the Middle East in Trump’s
first term. “And if you were considering this, this is the last thing you would
want the Iranians to know.”
TUNNEL VISION
PJAK looks ready to go into a fight, with a base that suggests an organized
military operation. It consists of a tunnel system running through the
mountain’s interior, with electricity and running water. On the walls hang
photographs of fallen fighters — many of them young, women and men in their 20s
and 30s. Four monitors mounted to the walls display the surrounding terrain
outside. Motion sensors control the cameras; when a bird flutters across the
screen, the image switches to it automatically.
In a dark tunnel, a 20-year-old fighter holding an assault rifle introduced
herself as Zilan. Her day begins at 5:30 a.m. and follows a strict schedule.
“Our daily life is based on discipline,” she said. Ideological instruction aims
at building a democratic society; military training focuses on defending the
Kurdish people.Watch: The Conversation
“We never want the help of foreign powers like Israel and the United States,”
she said. “We are an independent party.”
The Kurdistan Free Life Party is one of several Iranian-Kurdish groups in
Iraq. In 1979, Kurds in Iran supported the revolution against the shah. When the
new Islamic Republic rejected their demands for autonomy, heavy fighting broke
out in Iranian Kurdistan. Numerous groups relocated to Iraq, where they now
operate freely in northern Iraq, which is largely autonomous from the rest of
the country and detached from the central government in Baghdad.
The six members of the political and military alliance are not in agreement
about whether to invade if called on, and under what conditions they would
embark on a full-scale war for their political goals.
Some parties appear eager to take on a ground offensive in Iran. Reza Kaabi,
secretary-general of the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, has even set out a
blueprint, declaring a U.S.-enforced no-fly zone to be a prerequisite for any
Kurdish invasion.
There is a general sense in the region that PJAK — given its proximity to the
Iranian border and its relatively strong military presence — would be one of the
first of the six Kurdish militias in the coalition to go into Iran if given U.S.
military support. But PJAK publicly rejects the idea that they would do so at
the bidding of Washington. It’s a stance rooted in distrust of the U.S. — not
least because the United States abruptly withdrew support from the Kurds in
Syria in January.
Asked under what conditions PJAK would launch an offensive across the
Iraqi-Iranian border, Avrin declined to answer. But, she said, her organization
has “never waited for any force to bring about change.”
CNN recently reported that just a few days into the Iran war, Trump spoke with
Mustafa Hijri, the secretary-general of another group in the Kurdish-Iranian
opposition alliance: the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, or PDKI. It is
one of the oldest Iranian-Kurdish opposition parties and has maintained armed
units operating from exile in northern Iraq.
PDKI executive committee member Hassan Sharafi said in an interview that he
could “neither confirm nor deny” whether such a conversation had taken place, in
part because of the limited contact among the group’s leadership maintained for
security reasons.
Sharafi said the PDKI had “no operational relations” with the United States on
the ground in Iraq. At the political level, however, contacts exist: “In
Washington, Paris, and London we have contacts, and our representatives there
maintain relations. Our relations are diplomatic and political.” Such links, he
said, were long-standing: “For more than 20 years we have had relations with the
United States and with all European countries. We have contacts with all of
them.”
THE ROAD TO TEHRAN
From Tehran’s perspective, the militias represent a serious threat. Iranian
artillery has struck in the border region multiple times in recent days, hitting
villages near the frontier. These attacks primarily affect civilians. The
Kurdish guerrillas sheltered inside the mountain remain protected. Other militia
groups, whose positions are located in more exposed terrain, have also come
under fire.
A 2023 security agreement between Iran and Iraq obliged Baghdad to disarm
Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups, dismantle their bases and relocate them
deeper into Iraqi territory. Now that the Kurdish groups are openly considering
an offensive in Iran, Tehran has concluded that the agreement has failed,
according to Kamaran Osman, an Iraq-based human rights officer with a nonprofit
organization called Community Peacemaker Teams that monitors human rights abuses
in conflict zones.
“Now it believes it must target, destroy and defeat these groups,” Osman said,
speaking in the Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah, about a two-hour drive from the PJAK
base.
As of Monday, his organization had recorded 307 Iranian attacks on the Kurdistan
region in Iraq, leaving eight people killed and 51 injured.
He sees only grim scenarios for the Kurdish people in Iran. “If the regime
falls, there is a risk of civil war in Iran,” he said. If the regime survives,
he fears more retaliation from Tehran against Kurds in Iraq — both
Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups and the Kurdistan Regional Government.
Should northern Iraq become destabilized, a power vacuum could emerge. The last
time order eroded here, in 2014, ISIS militants seized control of a swathe of
territory stretching from Iraq to Syria, a landmass nearly as large as the
United Kingdom. PJAK has ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a militant group
that has fought against the Turkish government, and is listed as a terrorist
organization there — as well as in the EU and the U.S.
The United States has a troubled history of making big promises to ethnic
Kurdish groups — and then abandoning them at the worst possible moment. After
calling on Iraqis to rise up and overthrow then-dictator Saddam Hussein in 1991,
President George H.W. Bush declined to intervene when Hussein began slaughtering
Iraqi Kurds who took up the U.S. president’s call. And as recently as this
January, the Trump administration stood by as a Syrian Kurdish militia that led
the U.S.-backed campaign to defeat ISIS just a few years ago was attacked by
Syria’s new government.
The big question for U.S. policymakers may be how much they would need to
support a Kurdish assault on Iran to make it successful. Former U.S.
intelligence and special forces experts believe it would require the type of
commitment he might prefer to avoid: large infusions of cash and weapons, close
air support, and potentially even on-the-ground aid from U.S. special forces.
Even then, a Kurdish-led attack could fizzle, leaving Trump with two grim
choices: Abandon the Kurds, or come to their rescue with even greater U.S.
combat support.
“It would require a lot of commitment on the U.S. side with a very unclear end
state,” said Alex Plitsas, a former senior Pentagon official who worked on
special operations and counterterrorism policy in the Middle East.
While Coates cautioned that Trump had other, better options at hand, she argued
that even modest U.S. military support for the Kurds — such as small arms
shipments and limited air support — could threaten Iran’s increasingly brittle
regime.
The key, she said, was arming the exiled Kurds in Iraq in conjunction with other
Iranian resistance groups inside the country to avoid the perception it was
coming from outside.
“The way this is going to be effective,” Coates said, “is not by a bunch of
Iraqis invading Iran.”
Drüten of WELT reported from Iraq. Sakellariadis reported from Washington.
The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network is a multi-publication initiative
publishing scoops, investigations, interviews, op-eds and analysis that
reverberate across the world. It connects journalists from Axel Springer brands
— including POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, and Onet — on major stories
for an international audience. Their ambitious reporting stretches across Axel
Springer platforms: online, print, TV and audio. Together, the outlets reach
hundreds of millions of people worldwide.
President Donald Trump has often frustrated European allies with his overt
entreaties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and harsh words for Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But behind the seeming imbalance is a longer-term strategic goal – countering
China.
The Trump administration believes that incentivizing Russia to end the war in
Ukraine, welcoming it back economically and showering it with U.S. investments,
could eventually shift the global order away from China.
It’s a gamble – and one Ukrainians are concerned with – but it underscores the
administration’s belief that the biggest geopolitical threat facing the United
States and the West is China, not Putin’s Russia. While countering China isn’t
the only reason the administration wants a truce, it does help explain why after
more than 15 months of fruitless talks and multiple threats to walk away, the
president’s team – special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner –
keep looking for a breakthrough.
A Trump administration official, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing
negotiations, said finding a “way to align closer with Russia” could create “a
different power balance with China that could be very, very beneficial.”
The administration’s desire to use Ukraine peace negotiations to counter China
has not been previously reported.
But many observers believe this plan has little hope of succeeding – at least
while Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping remain in charge. And the idea of
giving Russia economic incentives to grow closer to the U.S. is concerning for
Ukraine, said a Ukrainian official, granted anonymity to discuss diplomatic
matters.
“We had such attempts in the past already and it led to nothing,” they said.
“Germany had [Ostpolitik, Germany’s policy toward the East], for that and now
Russia is fighting the deadliest war in Europe.”
And when it comes to banking on breaking apart China and Russia, the Ukrainian
official noted that both countries “have one [thing] in common which you can not
beat – they hate the U.S. as a symbol of democracy.”
Still, the strategy is in keeping with the administration’s broader foreign
policy initiatives aimed at least in part in countering Chinese influence.
Taking out Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and pressuring Cuba’s government to
the brink of collapse all diminishes China’s influence in the Western
Hemisphere. The administration threatened Panama, which withdrew from Chinese
leader Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative a month after Trump took office and called
Peru’s deal with China surrounding its deepwater port in Chancay a “cautionary
tale.”
And striking Iran shifted China’s oil import potential, as Tehran supplied
Beijing with more than 13 percent of its oil in 2025, according to Reuters.
Indeed, the Trump administration official noted that between Venezuela, Iran and
Russia, China was buying oil at below-market rates, subsidizing its consumption
“to the tune of over $100 billion a year for the last several years.”
“So that’s been a massive subsidy for China by being able to buy oil from these
places on the black market, sometimes $30 a barrel lower than what the spot
market is,” the person said.
Even as there are reports that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran, the
U.S. and Russia keep talking. Witkoff and Kushner met with Kirill Dmitriev, a
top adviser to Putin, last week. The Russians called the meeting “productive.”
Witkoff said they’d keep talking. These negotiations and the broader efforts to
counter China now take place under the spectre of Trump asking several
countries, including China, for help securing the Strait of Hormuz.
The National Security Strategy, released in November, spilled a fair amount of
ink on China, though it often doesn’t mention Beijing directly. Many U.S.
lawmakers — from both parties — consider China the gravest long-term threat to
America’s global power.
“There is a longstanding kind of U.S. strategic train of thought that says that
having Russia and China working together is very much not in our interests, and
finding ways to divide them, or at least tactically collaborate with the partner
who’s less of a long term strategic threat to us,” said said Alexander Gray,
Trump’s National Security Council chief of staff in his first term.
Gray, who is currently the CEO of American Global Strategies, a consulting firm,
compared the effort to former Secretary of State and national security adviser
Henry Kissinger, who spearheaded President Richard Nixon’s trip to China during
the Cold War in an effort to pull that country away from the Soviet Union.
The State Department declined to comment for this report. However, a State
Department spokesperson previously told POLITICO that China’s economic ties with
Latin American countries present a “national security threat” for the U.S. that
the administration is actively trying to mitigate.
The White House declined to comment.
Fred Fleitz, another Trump NSC chief of staff in his first term, noted that the
president has “pressed Putin to end the war to normalize Russia’s relationship
with the U.S. and Europe,” and wants Russia to rejoin the G8.
“It is clear that Trump wants to find a way to end the war in Ukraine and to
coexist peacefully with Russia,” said Fleitz, who now serves as the vice chair
for American Security at the America First Policy Institute. “But I also believe
he correctly sees the growing Russia-China alliance as a far greater threat to
U.S. and global security than the Ukraine War and therefore wants to find ways
to improve U.S.-Russia relations to weaken or break that alliance.”
Others, however, remain skeptical. Craig Singleton, senior director of the China
program at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the goal to break Russia
and China is “appealing in theory, but in practice the partnership between
Moscow and Beijing is iron-clad.”
“Obviously there is nothing wrong with testing diplomacy and President Trump is
a dealmaker. But history probably suggests that this won’t really result in
much,” Singleton added. “The likely outcome [with Russia] is limited tactical
cooperation with the U.S., not some sort of durable break with Beijing.”
And China seeks to keep Russia as an ally and junior partner in its relationship
as a counter to Western powers. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed the
relationship in a press conference this month, saying, “in a fluid and turbulent
world, China-Russia relationship has stood rock-solid against all odds.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, shortly after his confirmation, hinted at the
broader strategy, saying in an interview, that “a situation where the Russians
are permanently a junior partner to China, having to do whatever China says they
need to do because of their dependence on them” is not a “good outcome” for
Russia, the U.S. or Europe.
But Rubio, like the Trump administration official given anonymity to discuss
ongoing negotiations, both acknowledged that fully severing those ties would be
a tough lift.
“I don’t know if we’ll ever be successful at peeling them completely off a
relationship with the Chinese,” Rubio said in February of last year.
Adam Savit, director for China policy at the America First Policy Institute,
argued that “Russia matters at the margins, but it won’t be a decisive variable
in the U.S.-China competition,” and that the “center of gravity is East Asia.”
“Russia gives China strategic depth, a friendly border, energy supply, and a
second front in Ukraine to sap Western attention,” he said. “Getting closer to
Russia could complicate China’s strategic position, but Moscow is a declining
power and solidly the junior partner in that relationship.”
Dr. Daniel Steiners
This is not an obituary for Germany’s economic standing. It is an invitation to
shift perspective: away from the language of crisis and toward a clearer view of
our opportunities — and toward the confidence that we have more capacity to
shape our future than the mood indicators might suggest.
For years, Germany seemed to be traveling along a self-evident path of success:
growth, prosperity, the title of export champion. But that framework is
beginning to fray. Other countries are catching up. Parts of our industrial base
appear vulnerable to the pressures of transformation. And global dependencies
are turning into strategic vulnerabilities. In short, the German model of
success is under strain.
Yet a glance at Europe’s economic history suggests that moments like these can
also contain enormous potential — if strategic thinking and decisive action come
together. One example, which I find particularly striking, takes us back to
1900. At the time, André and Édouard Michelin were producing tires in a
relatively small market, when the automobile itself was still a niche product.
They could have focused simply on improving their product. Instead, they thought
bigger; not in silos, but in systems.
With the Michelin Guide, they created incentives and orientation for greater
mobility: workshop directories, road maps, and recommendations for hotels and
restaurants made travel more predictable and attractive. What began as a service
booklet for motorists gradually evolved into an entire ecosystem — and
eventually into a globally recognized benchmark for quality.
> In times of change, those who recognize connections and are willing to shape
> them strategically can transform uncertainty into lasting strength.
What makes this example remarkable is that the real innovation did not lie in
the tire itself or merely even a clever marketing idea to boost sales. It lay in
something more fundamental: connected thinking and ecosystem thinking. The
decision to see mobility as a broad space for value creation. It was the courage
to break out of silos, to recognize strategic connections, to deepen value
chains — and to help define the standards of an emerging market.
That is precisely the lesson that remains relevant today, including for
policymakers. In times of change, those who recognize connections and are
willing to shape them strategically can transform uncertainty into lasting
strength.
Germany’s industrial health economy is still too often viewed in public debate
in narrowly sectoral terms — primarily through the lens of health care provision
and costs. Strategically, however, it has long been an industrial ecosystem that
spans research, development, manufacturing, digital innovation, exports and
highly skilled employment. Just as Michelin helped shape the ecosystem of
mobility, Germany can think of health as a comprehensive domain of value
creation.
The industrial health economy: cost driver or engine of growth?
Yes, medicines cost money. In 2024, Germany’s statutory health insurance system
spent around €55 billion on pharmaceuticals. But much of that increase reflects
medical progress and the need for appropriate care in an aging society with
changing disease patterns.
Innovative therapies benefit both patients and the health system. They can
improve quality and length of life while shifting treatment from hospitals into
outpatient care or even into patients’ homes. They raise efficiency in the
system, reduce downstream costs and support workforce participation.
> In short, the industrial health economy is not merely part of our health care
> system. It is a key industry, underpinning economic strength, prosperity and
> the financing of our social security systems.
Despite public perception, pharmaceutical spending has remained remarkably
stable for years, accounting for roughly 12 percent of total expenditures in the
statutory health insurance system. That figure also includes generics —
medicines that enter the ‘world heritage of pharmacy’ after patent protection
expires and remain available at low cost. Truly innovative, patent-protected
medicines account for only about seven percent of total spending.
Against these costs stands an economic sector in which Germany continues to hold
a leading international position. With around 1.1 million employees and value
creation exceeding €190 billion, the industrial health economy is among the
largest sectors of the German economy. Its high-tech products, bearing the Made
in Germany label, are in demand worldwide and contribute significantly to
Germany’s export surplus.
In short, the industrial health economy is not merely part of our health care
system. It is a key industry, underpinning economic strength, prosperity and the
financing of our social security systems. Its overall balance is positive.
The central question, therefore, is this: how can we unlock its untapped
potential? And what would it mean for Germany if we fail to recognize these
opportunities while economic and innovative capacity increasingly shifts
elsewhere?
Global dynamics leave little room for hesitation
Governments around the world have long recognized the strategic importance of
the industrial health economy — for health care, for economic growth and for
national security.
China is demonstrating remarkable speed in scaling and implementing
biotechnology. The United States, meanwhile, illustrates how determined
industrial policy can look in practice. Regulatory authorities are being
modernized, approval procedures accelerated and bureaucratic barriers
systematically reduced. At the same time, domestic production is being
strategically strengthened. Speed and market size act as magnets for capital —
especially in a sector where research is extraordinarily capital-intensive and
requires long-term planning security.
When innovation-friendly conditions and economic recognition of innovation meet
a large, well-funded market, global shifts follow. Today roughly 50 percent of
the global pharmaceutical market is located in the United States, about 23
percent in Europe — and only 4 to 5 percent in Germany. This distribution is no
coincidence; it reflects differences in economic and regulatory environments.
At the same time, political pressure is growing on countries that benefit from
the American innovation engine without offering an equally attractive home
market or recognizing the value of innovation in comparable ways. Discussions
around a Most Favored Nation approach or other trade policy instruments are
moving in precisely that direction — and they affect Europe and Germany
directly.
For Germany, the implications are clear.
Those who want to attract investment must strengthen their competitiveness.
Those who want to ensure reliable health care must appropriately reward new
therapies.
Otherwise, these global dynamics will inevitably affect both the economy and
health care at home. Already today, roughly one in four medicines introduced in
the United States between 2014 and 2023 is not available in Europe. The gap is
even larger for gene and cell therapies.
The primacy of industrial policy: from consensus to action — now
Germany does not lack potential or substance. We still have a strong industrial
base, a tradition of invention, outstanding universities and research
institutions, and a private sector willing to invest. Political initiatives such
as the coalition agreement, the High-Tech Agenda and plans for a future strategy
in pharmaceuticals and medical technology provide important impulses, which I
strongly welcome.
> A fair market environment without artificial price caps or rigid guardrails is
> the strongest magnet for private capital, long-term investment and a resilient
> health system.
But programs must now translate into a coherent action plan for growth.
We need innovation-friendly and stable framework conditions that consider health
care, economic strength and national security together — as a strategic
ecosystem, not as separate silos.
The value of medical innovation must also be recognized in Germany. A fair
market environment without artificial price caps or rigid guardrails is the
strongest magnet for private capital, long-term investment and a resilient
health system.
Faster approval procedures, consistent digitalization and a determined reduction
of bureaucracy are essential if speed is once again to become a competitive
advantage and a driver of innovation.
Germany can reinvent itself, of that I am convinced. With courage, strategic
determination and an ambitious push for innovation.
The choice now lies with us: to set the right course and unlock the potential
that is already there.
SAN DIEGO — Ghislaine Maxwell’s lawyer on Friday acknowledged that she is
continuing to seek a pardon from President Donald Trump in the wake of the
release of the Epstein files.
The remarks from Maxwell’s lawyer, David Oscar Markus, came during an on-stage
conversation at an American Bar Association conference with Barry Pollack, the
attorney for another high-profile defendant, deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolás
Maduro.
During a discussion about their media strategy in which Markus derided reporting
about Maxwell’s prison transfer to what some outlets have described as a
“country club”-like prison facility, Pollack suggested one goal in talking to
reporters might be to alter the public perception of a defendant in hopes of
leniency from the president.
“I can imagine, for example, maybe you’re hoping — not in that case, but in a
case — to get a presidential pardon or commutation,” Pollack said, at which
point Markus interjected with a smirk to say, “that case, too.”
Pollack continued: “and maybe if the public hates your client, thinks that
you’ve already gotten a sweetheart deal, it may be politically more difficult
for the president to do that. But maybe if you set the record straight a little
bit, it’s a little easier.”
Markus has publicly advocated for a pardon or clemency for Maxwell, including
when she invoked her Fifth Amendment rights and declined to answer questions
before the House Oversight Committee in early February. “Ms. Maxwell is prepared
to speak fully and honestly if granted clemency by President Trump,” Markus said
at the time.
Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison sentence for her role in facilitating and
participating in late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking
operation. The Supreme Court has declined to take up her appeal of her
convictions.
The attorneys also discussed hate mail they’ve received as a result of their
representation of controversial clients, with Markus reading aloud an email he
said he received earlier in the week from an anonymous sender with the address
“Todd Blanche sucks at gmail dot com,” referring to the Deputy Attorney General
Todd Blanche.
“Only a child predator would represent Ghislaine Maxwell,” the email read,
according to Markus. “She should be on death row, rotting away and getting
beaten up, and you should be there with her.”
Pollack said, jokingly, that in the Maduro case, most of the commentary he
receives is in Spanish, “so I don’t understand what they’re saying, I just
assume that is lauding me for speaking up for the rule of law.” Federal
prosecutors charged Maduro with drug trafficking and narcoterrorism conspiracy
after U.S. forces seized him from Caracas in January.
Markus also asked Pollack about a roadblock in the Maduro case regarding
licenses that would allow Maduro and the government of Venezuela to sidestep
sanctions in order to pay Pollack for his legal representation.
In court filings, Pollack has said the Trump administration’s Office of Foreign
Assets Control suddenly — and without explanation — revoked licenses it had
issued to allow Venezuela to pay Maduro’s lawyers, leaving him unable to afford
representation. As a result, Pollack has asked a federal judge to dismiss the
Maduro indictment.
“There have been some bumps along the road towards getting that license,”
Pollack said. “So representatives of OFAC if you’re out there, please put in
your work.”
BRITAIN’S LABOUR PARTY STARES INTO THE ABYSS IN ITS WELSH HEARTLAND
In the old coalfields of south Wales, Britain’s center-left establishment faces
being crushed by a nationalist left and populist right. POLITICO went to find
out why.
By DAN BLOOM
and SASCHA O’SULLIVAN
in Newport, South Wales
Photo-Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO
Eluned Morgan, the Welsh first minister, stood in a sunbeam at Newport’s
Victorian market and declared: “Wales is ready for a new chapter.”
Many voters agree. The problem for Morgan is: few think she’ll be the one to
write it.
This nation of 3 million people, with its coalfields, docks, mountains and
farms, is the deepest heartland of Morgan’s center-left Labour Party. Labour has
topped every U.K. general election here for 104 years and presided over the
Welsh parliament, the Senedd, since establishing it 27 years ago.
Yet Senedd elections on May 7 threaten not only to end this world-record winning
streak, but leave Welsh Labour fighting for a reason to exist.
One YouGov poll in January put the party joint-fourth with the Conservatives on
10 percent, behind Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 37 percent, Nigel Farage’s
populist Reform UK on 23 percent and the Greens on 13 percent. Other polls are
less dramatic (one last week had Reform and Plaid equal, and Labour a closer
third), but the mood remains stark.
The most common projection for the 96-seat Senedd is a Plaid minority government
propped up by Labour — blowing a hole in Labour’s status as the default
governing party and safe vote to stop the right, and echoing recent by-elections
in Caerphilly (won by Plaid) and Manchester (won by Greens).
POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across
Labour, Plaid and Reform. | Dan Bloom/POLITICO
It would raise the simple question, said a senior Welsh Labour official granted
anonymity to speak frankly: “What is the point in this party?’”
POLITICO visited south Wales and spoke to 30 politicians and officials across
Labour, Plaid and Reform, including interviews with all three of their Welsh
leaders, for this piece and an episode of the Westminster Insider podcast. The
conversations painted a vivid picture of a center-left establishment fighting
for survival in an election that could echo far beyond Wales.
While in the 1980s Welsh Labour could unite voters against Margaret Thatcher’s
Conservatives, now it is battling demographic changes, a decline in unionized
heavy industry and an anti-incumbent backlash. All have killed old loyalties and
habits.
Squeezed by Plaid and Greens to their left and Reform to their right, some in
Labour see parallels with other mainstream postwar parties facing a reckoning
across Europe. This week, Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats and
center-left Social Democrats lost to the Greens in the car production region of
Baden-Württemberg; the latter barely scraped 5 percent. In the recent Manchester
by-election, the Conservatives lost their deposit.
Welsh Labour MPs fear a reckoning. One said: “We will have to start again. We
rebuild. We figure out, what does Welsh Labour mean in 2026? What do we stand
for?”
NEW CHAPTER, SAME AUTHOR
It takes Morgan 20 minutes to walk the 500 meters from Newport Market to our
interview. Some passers-by flag her down; others she ambushes. We pass a baked
goods shop (“Ooh, Gregg’s! That’s what I want!”) and Morgan emerges with a
latte, though not with one of the chain’s famous sausage rolls. She introduces
herself to one woman as “Eluned Morgan, first minister of Wales.” Her target
looks vaguely bemused.
After the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh
government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame
when things go wrong. | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images
A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’
Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after
her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal.
“I didn’t have a mandate really, because I was just kind of thrown in,” she
tells POLITICO midway up the high street. “I thought, right, I need a program,
so I went out on the streets and took my program directly from the public
without any filter.”
She is selling a nuts-and-bolts offer of new railway stations, a £2 bus fare cap
and same-day mental health care. Morgan casts herself as the experienced option
to beat what she calls the “separatists” of Plaid and the “concerning” rise of
populism. She means Reform, which wants to scrap net zero targets and cut 580
Welsh civil service jobs.
Yet paradoxically, she also paints herself as a vessel for change. “[People]
want to see change faster,” she said in John Frost Square, named after the
leader of an 1839 uprising that demanded voting rights for all men. She wants to
show “delivery” and “hope.”
Dimitri Batrouni, Newport Council’s Labour leader, suggested an Amazonification
of politics is under way. “Our lives commercially are instant,” he said. “I want
something, I order it, it’s delivered to my house … people quite naturally want
that in their governments.”
But after 27 years, many voters are rolling the dice on delivery elsewhere.
Welsh Labour is promising to end homelessness by 2034, but previously made the
same pledge by 2026. Around 6,900 people are still waiting two years or more for
NHS treatment (though this figure was 10 times higher during the Covid-19
pandemic). Education rankings slumped in 2023.
At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy
Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life
until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel
Farage.”
‘SHIT, WELL, HE DIDN’T CALL ME’
Much of this anger is pointed at Westminster — which is why Labour has long
tried to show a more socialist face to Wales.
It was the seat of Labour co-founder Keir Hardie as well as of Nye Bevan, who
launched Britain’s National Health Service in 1948. “Welsh Labour” was born out
of the first Senedd-style elections in 1999, when Plaid surged in south Wales
heartlands while Tony Blair’s New Labour appealed to the middle classes. For
years, this deliberate rebranding worked; Labour pulled through with the most
seats even when the Tories ruled Westminster.
Yet in 2024, the party boasted of “two Labour governments at both ends of the
M4” — in London and in Cardiff — working in harmony. The emphasis soon flipped
back when things went wrong in No. 10; Morgan promised a “red Welsh way” last
May. She is “trying to find our identity again,” said the MP quoted above.
Morgan appeared to disown the “both ends of the M4” approach, while declining to
call it a mistake. “Look, that was a decision before I became first minister,”
she said.
A peer and ex-MEP who joined the Senedd in 2016, Morgan is a fixture of Wales’
Labour establishment who became first minister unopposed in August 2024 after
her predecessor, Vaughan Gething, resigned over a donations scandal. | Matthew
Horwood/Getty Images
She tries to be playful in distancing herself from Keir Starmer. “He came down a
couple of weeks ago and I was very clear with him, if you’re coming you need to
bring something with you. Fair play, he brought £14 billion of investment,” she
said. “If he wants to come again, he’ll have to bring me more money.”
But she has also hitched herself to Starmer for now — unlike Scottish Labour
leader Anas Sarwar, who has called for the PM to go. As we sat down, Morgan
professed surprise at news that Sarwar called several Cabinet ministers
beforehand.
“Did he! Shit, well, he didn’t call me,” she said.
“Look at the state of the world at the moment; actually what we need is
stability,” she added. “We need the grown-ups in the room to be in charge, and I
do think Keir Starmer is a grown-up.”
‘ELUNED WASN’T HAPPY’
Morgan has mounted a fightback since Plaid won October’s Caerphilly
by-election.
She has hired Matt Greenough, a strategist who worked on London Mayor Sadiq
Khan’s re-election campaign last year, said three people with knowledge of the
appointment.
One of the people said: “During Caerphilly, it became quite clear there were a
lot of problems. Eluned wasn’t happy with Welsh Labour or the way the campaign
was running. She did a lot of lobbying and got the Welsh executive to basically
give her complete power over the campaign.” Morgan “was angry that the central
party [in London] took control of the Caerphilly by-election,” another of the
people added.
(A Morgan ally disputed this reading of events, saying she would always take a
bigger role as the election drew near, and that a wide range of Labour figures
are involved in the campaign committee such as a Westminster MP, Torsten Bell.)
Morgan also has more support these days from Labour’s MPs — who pushed last year
for her to focus less on Plaid and more on Reform. That lobbying may have been a
mistake, the MP quoted above admits now. “We were quite naive in thinking that
the progressives would back us,” this MP said.
Privately, Labour politicians and officials in Wales say the mood and prospects
are better than the start of 2026. Though asked if Labour would win the most
seats in the Senedd, Batrouni said: “Let’s look and see. It’s not looking good
in the polls but … politics changes so quickly.”
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT KEIR STARMER
The harsh reality is that Labour’s base in Wales began slipping long before
Starmer, rooted in deindustrialization since the 1970s and 80s.
Newport, near England on the M4 corridor, has a measure of prosperity that other
parts of Wales do not. The 137-year-old market has had a makeover, Microsoft is
building data centers and U.S. giant Vishay runs Britain’s biggest semiconductor
plant. Here Labour is mostly expecting a fight between itself and Reform.
At Newport’s Friars Walk shopping center, retired mechanical engineer Roy
Wigmore, 81, said all politicians are liars. “I’ve voted Labour all my life
until now,” he said, “but I’ll probably vote for somebody else — probably Nigel
Farage.” | Jon Rowley/Getty Images
Wales’ west coast and north west are more Plaid-dominated, with more Welsh
speakers and independence supporters. But support for nationalists is spreading
in the southern valleys.
“All across the valleys you’re seeing places where Labour has dominated for 100
years plus but is now in deep, deep crisis,” said Richard Wyn Jones, professor
of Welsh politics at Cardiff University. “It has long been the case that a lot
of Labour supporters have had a very positive view of Plaid Cymru — they just
didn’t have a reason to vote for them until now.”
Wyn Jones attributes the change to trends across northern Europe, where
traditional left-wing parties have been “unmoored” from working-class
occupations. A growing service sector has brought more white-collar voters with
socially liberal values.
Carmen Smith, a 29-year-old Plaid campaigner who is the House of Lords’
youngest-ever peer, said Brexit had unhitched young, left-leaning voters from
the idea of British patriotism: “There are a lot more young people identifying
as Welsh rather than British.”
And after the Covid pandemic, people are simply more aware of what the Welsh
government actually does — which means Labour, as the incumbent, gets more blame
when things go wrong.
All the while, a left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour
voters is turning to Reform UK. At the Tumble Inn, a Wetherspoons chain pub in
the valley town of Pontypridd, retired gas engineer Paul Jones remembered: “You
could leave one job, walk a couple of hundred yards and start another job … it
was a totally different world. I wish we could get it back, but I don’t think
it’s going to happen.” He hasn’t voted for years but plans to back Reform.
THEY’VE BLOWN UP THE MAP
All these changes will be turbocharged by a new electoral map.
A previous Labour first minister, Mark Drakeford, introduced a more proportional
voting system which will see voters elect six Senedd members in each of 16
super-constituencies.
The results will reflect the mood better than U.K. general elections (Labour won
84 percent of Wales’ seats on a 37 percent vote share in 2024), but create a
volatile outcome. In the mega-constituency for eastern Cardiff, Wyn Jones
believes the six seats could be won by six parties: Labour, Plaid, Reform, the
Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Ironically, said the Labour MP quoted above, Welsh Labour is now polling so
badly that it could actually win more seats under the new system than the old
one.
Trying to win the sixth seat in each super-constituency will hoover up many
resources. The size of each patch changes how parties campaign, said Plaid’s
Westminster leader Liz Savile Roberts: “We’ve had to go to places that I’ve
never been to.”
And the scale means activists have a weaker connection to the candidates they
campaign for — compounded in Labour by many Senedd members stepping down. Just
six people turned up to one recent Labour door-knocking session in a heartland
seat.
A left-behind contingent of socially conservative ex-Labour voters is turning to
Reform UK. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images
After May 8, the new system will make coalitions or informal support deals more
necessary to command a Senedd majority.
Morgan declined to say if she would support Plaid’s £400 million-a-year offer to
expand free childcare (which Labour says is unfunded), rather than see it voted
down. “I’m certainly not getting into hypotheticals,” she said. “I’m in this to
win it.”
Her rivals have other ideas.
THE PRESIDENT IS COMING
On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap
Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words:
“New leadership for Wales.”
The former BBC presenter, who took over Plaid’s leadership in 2023, strained not
to make his February conference look like a premature victory lap. Members
could’ve been fooled. They struggled to find parking. There were more lobbyists;
more journalists.
It is a slow burn for a party founded in 1925, which won its first Westminster
seat in 1966.
Ap Iorwerth ramped up the anti-establishment rhetoric in his conference speech
while Lindsay Whittle, who won Caerphilly for Plaid in October’s by-election,
bellowed: “Rich men from London, we are waiting for you!”
Yet he insists his success is more than a protest vote, a trend sweeping Europe
or a mirror of Reform’s populism.
“I’d like to think that we’re doing something different,” Ap Iorwerth told
POLITICO. While Morgan accuses him of “separatism,” he said: “We have a growing
sense of Welsh nationhood and Welsh identity, at a time when there’s deep
disillusionment in the old guard of U.K. politics and a sense of needing to keep
at bay that populist right wing.”
Ap Iorwerth said there is a “very real danger” that Labour vanishes entirely as
a serious force in the Senedd. “The level of support that they have collapsed to
is a level that most people, probably myself included, could never have imagined
would happen so quickly,” he said.
INDEPENDENCE DAY?
But Plaid faces three big challenges to hold this pole position.
The first is its ground game, stretched thin to cover the new world of
mega-seats.
On the hill above Newport, a two-story presidential-style image of Rhun ap
Iorwerth filled a screen at the International Convention Centre above the words:
“New leadership for Wales.” | Matthew Horwood/Getty Images
The second is to remain distinct from Labour and the insurgent Greens while
running a broad left-leaning platform focused on energy costs, childcare and the
NHS.
The third is to convince unionist voters that Plaid is not simply a Trojan horse
for Welsh independence.
Independence is Plaid’s core belief, yet Ap Iorwerth did not mention the word
once in his speech, instead promising a “standing commission” to look at Wales’
future. He told POLITICO he would rather have a “sustained, engaging, deep
discussion … than try to crash, bang, wallop, towards the line.”
But opponents suggest Plaid will push hard for independence if they win a second
term in 2030 — like the Scottish National Party did after topping elections in
2007 then 2011.
One conference attendee, Emyr Gruffydd, 36, a member for 19 years, said
independence “is going to be part of our agenda in the future, definitely. But I
think nation-building has to be the approach that we take in the first term.”
Savile Roberts accepted that shelving talk of independence (which is still
supported by less than half the Welsh population) is part of a deliberate
strategy to broaden the party’s reach and keep a wide left-leaning appeal. “I
mean, we know the people that we need to appeal to — it is the disenchanted
Labour voters,” she said.
For some shoppers in Newport — not Plaid’s home turf — it may be working. One
ex-Labour voter, Rose Halford, said of Plaid: “All they want to do is make
everybody speak Welsh.” But she’ll consider backing them: “They’re showing a bit
more gumption, aren’t they?”
TAXING QUESTIONS FOR PLAID
If Plaid does win, that’s when the hard part begins.
Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from
Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. And Plaid has vowed not
to hike income tax, one of the few (blunt) tax instruments available to the
Welsh government. Strategists looked at the issue before and feared it would
prompt taxpayers to flee over the border to England.
So Plaid promises vague financial “efficiencies” in areas such as child poverty,
where spending exceeded £7 billion since 2022, and health. Whittle said:
“There’s an awful lot of people pen-pushing in the health service. We don’t need
pen-pushers.”
Labour’s attack machine argues that Plaid and Reform UK alike would cut
services. Ap Iorwerth insists his and Farage’s promises are different: “We’re
talking about being effective and efficient.” But he admitted: “You don’t know
the detail until you come into government.”
Ap Iorwerth jettisoned any suggestion that Plaid would introduce universal basic
income, saying it is “not a pledge for government.” He added: “It’s something
that I believe in as a principle. I don’t think we’re in a place where we have
anything like a model that could be put in place now.”
Ap Iorwerth would seek urgent talks about changing Wales’ funding formula from
Westminster — but cannot say how much this would raise. | Matthew Horwood/Getty
Images
The blame game between Cardiff and Westminster will run hot. Ap Iorwerth voiced
outrage this week at a leaked memo from Starmer in December, ordering his
Cabinet to deliver directly in Wales and Scotland “even when devolved
governments may oppose this.”
FARAGE’S WELSH SURGE
And then there’s Reform. Farage’s party has rocketed in the polls since 2024;
typical branch meetings have swelled from a dozen members to several dozen.
Since February, Reform has even had its own leader for Wales — Dan Thomas, a
former Tory councillor in London who says he recently moved back to the area of
Blackwood, in the south Wales valleys.
Some party figures have observed a dip after the Caerphilly by-election, where
Reform came second. Thomas insists: “I don’t think we’ve plateaued” — and even
said there is room to increase a 31 percent vote share from one (optimistic)
poll. “There’s still a Labour vote to squeeze,” he told POLITICO. “We’re
targeting all of Wales.”
It is a measure of Plaid’s success that Reform UK often now presents the
nationalist party as its main competition. “It’s a two-horse race [with Plaid],
that’s what I say on the doors,” said Leanne Dyke, a Reform canvasser who was
drinking in the Pontypridd Wetherspoons.
James Evans, who is now one of Reform’s two Senedd members after he was thrown
out of the Conservative group in January on suspicion of defection talks, argues
his supporters are underrepresented in polling because they are “smeared” as
bigots.
Evans added: “Very similarly to what happened in America when Donald Trump was
elected, I think there is a quiet majority of people out there who do not want
to say they’re voting Reform, who will vote Reform.”
Reform has its own custom-built member app, ReformGo, as it canvasses data on
where its supporters live for the first time. It sent a mass appeal by post to
all registered Welsh voters in late 2025 (before spending limits kicked in).
Welsh campaign director David Thomas is recruiting a brand new slate of 96
candidates, booking hotels for training days with interviews, written exercises
and team-building. Daytime TV presenter Jeremy Kyle has helped with media
training. English officials cross the border to help; Reform still only has
three paid officials in Wales.
FARAGE HAS AN NHS PROBLEM
Lian Walker, a postal worker from the village of Pen-y-graig, would be a prime
target for Reform. “There’s people who I see on the databases, they don’t work,”
she said in Pontpridd’s Patriot pub, “but they get everything; new windows,
earrings, T-shirts, shorts.” She supports Reform’s plans to deport migrants.
But on the NHS, she says of Reform: “They want it to go private like America.”
Labour and Plaid drive this attack line relentlessly. The full picture is more
nuanced — but still exposes a tension between Farage and Thomas.
But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. | Ben
Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images
While Reform emphasizes it would keep the NHS free at the point of use, Farage
has not ruled out shifting its funding from general taxation to a French-style
insurance model, saying that would be “a national decision ahead of a general
election.”
Thomas, however, broke from this stance. He told POLITICO: “No, no. We rule out
any kind of insurance system or any kind of privatization.” He added: “Nigel’s
also said that devolved issues are down to the Welsh party, and I wouldn’t
consider any kind of insurance-based or private-based system for the Welsh NHS.”
Labour and Plaid are relying on an anti-Reform vote to keep Farage’s party out
of power. Opponents have also highlighted the jailing of Nathan Gill, Reform’s
former Welsh leader, for taking bribes to give pro-Russia interviews and
speeches.
But Farage has an advantage; the right is less split than the left. In Evans’
sprawling rural seat of Brecon and Radnorshire, two people with knowledge of the
Conservative association said its membership had fallen catastrophically from a
recent peak of around 400.
On the other hand, the sheer number of defections makes Reform look more like a
copycat Conservative Party. A former Tory staffer works for Evans; Thomas’ press
officer is the Welsh Conservatives’ former media chief. Evans said last year
that 99 percent of Reform’s policies were “populist rubbish,” but was allowed to
see the policy platform in secret before he agreed to join (and has since
contributed to it).
While the long-time former UKIP and Brexit Party politician Mark Reckless led a
policy consultation in the first half of 2025, former Conservative Welsh
Secretary David Jones — who defected without fanfare last year — played a
hands-on role behind the scenes working up manifesto policies, two people with
knowledge of his work said.
THE NIGEL SHOW
Then there is Reform’s reliance on Farage himself.
The party deliberately left it late before unveiling a Welsh leader, said a
Reform figure in Wales, and chose in Thomas a Welsh figure who would not
“detract from Nigel’s overall umbrella and brand.”
While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself
was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans,
including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia
Yusuf.
Thomas said: “Ultimately, it’s my decision to sign off the manifesto. Of course,
Nigel was consulted because he’s our U.K. leader, and we want to ensure that
what’s going on in Wales is aligned to the broader picture in the UK.”
Reform’s Welsh manifesto promises to cut a penny off every band of income tax by
2030, end Wales’ “nation of sanctuary” plan to support asylum seekers, scrap
20mph road speed limits and upgrade the M4 and A55 highways. But costings have
not been published yet — Reform has sent them to be assessed by the Institute
for Fiscal studies, a nonpartisan think tank — and like other parties, Reform
faces questions about how it will all be paid for.
Asked if Reform would begin work on the M4 and A55 upgrades by 2030, Thomas
replied: “We’d like to. But we all know in this country, infrastructure projects
take a long time.”
While Welsh officials and politicians worked on the manifesto, Farage himself
was involved in signing it off — as were several others in London, said Evans,
including frontbench spokespeople Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and Zia
Yusuf. | Huw Fairclough/Getty Images
‘I’VE GOT TO FOCUS ON WHAT I CAN CONTROL’
These harsh realities facing Wales’ would-be rulers are a silver lining for
Labour.
Morgan avoided POLITICO’s question about whether she believes the polls — “I’ve
got to focus on what I can control” — but insisted many voters remain
persuadable. “People will scratch the surface and say [our rivals] are not
ready,” she said.
Alun Michael, who led the first Welsh Labour administration in 1999, said the
idea that the Labour vote has “collapsed completely” is wrong. “It’s always
dangerous to go on opinion polls as a decider of what will happen in an
election,” he said.
Whoever does win will deserve a moment of levity.
If Ap Iorwerth wins the most seats on May 7, he will drink an Aperol spritz;
Thomas will have a glass of Penderyn Welsh whisky.
As for Morgan? She would like a cup of tea — milk, no sugar. Perhaps survival
would be sweet enough.
PARIS — Emmanuel Grégoire should have had an easy campaign to succeed his former
boss, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo.
But the pair’s very public political breakup is creating a major obstacle for
the Socialist front-runner in the lead-up to the race to lead the French
capital, which begins on Sunday.
Since their clash, Grégoire has conspicuously distanced himself from Hidalgo,
and that has meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the
successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a
popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.
If Grégoire fails to extend the Socialists’ quarter-century rule of Paris, it
would be a disaster for his party and further evidence of its weakness before
the country’s presidential election next year.
“She did everything she could to torpedo my candidacy. I’m not her candidate and
I am not her heir,” Grégoire said in a February interview with
franceinfo. That’s a spectacular rupture for the man who was her principal
deputy from 2018 to 2024.
The race is going to be close, giving the right its best opportunity in years to
take control of the City of Lights — if it can unite around one candidate.
Grégoire and conservative former Culture Minister Rachida Dati are running
neck-and-neck for the top spot in the polls. But an unprecedented five
candidates could make the runoff on March 22, which would trigger a mad scramble
for alliances.
PARIS LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS
All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman
For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
A BUNGLED SUCCESSION
So what happened between Hidalgo, the chief architect of the French capital’s
green revolution, and Grégoire, her once-presumed heir?
Over the summer, Hidalgo spurned his candidacy to support a lesser-known
senator to succeed her as mayor.
Grégoire still wound up winning the Socialist Party’s nomination, but the damage
was done after Hidalgo publicly claimed that “the left would lose” Paris if her
former deputy was its candidate.
Three people familiar with their relationship, all granted anonymity to speak
candidly, said things started to turn sour after Hidalgo’s failed 2022
presidential bid, in which she won a dismal 1.75 percent of the vote.
With Hidalgo’s fortunes waning and Grégoire seemingly tapped as her replacement,
things started to get “complicated,” an official in the Socialist Party said.
The pace of change and Anne Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has not helped
her popularity. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
“She has an authoritarian streak and was really hard on him,” the official
said.
This is a trait that has widely been remarked upon, and it earned her the
nickname “Queen-Mayor.” It helped with short-term implementation of projects but
now looks like it could have undermined her party in the long run, given some of
the bad blood it has fomented.
“You need toughness to succeed in Paris and transform the city,” said Gaspard
Gantzer, a former Paris City Hall advisor. “Her style was a bit brutal, a bit
cutting with others.”
Hidalgo was then furious when Grégoire ran for and won a parliamentary seat
representing Paris during the 2024 election, according to two of the three
people familiar with the relationship.
One of Hidalgo’s allies said “they were both at fault,” as Grégoire became less
supportive of her political ambitions and started pursuing his own agenda after
the last presidential race.
“It was a classic leader versus heir situation,” the Hidalgo supporter said.
‘A DIFFERENT MAYOR’
Asked about the feud by POLITICO when unveiling his platform to reporters last
month, Grégoire said he has fond memories of working with Hidalgo but stressed
he would be “a different mayor” who would address “the new expectations” of
Paris residents.
Grégoire has instead tried to take a page out of Zoran Mamdani’s New York
playbook, focusing his message on housing shortages and bringing down the cost
of living. He’s also promised to “break with [Hidalgo’s] method.”
While Grégoire hasn’t exactly broken through in the polls, the strategy could
reap benefits given the Europe-wide anti-green backlash and Hidalgo’s reputation
among resident of the capital.
A poll from Ipsos published in December found that Hidalgo leaves office with a
legacy that splits Parisians, even if they have come to love biking to work or
enjoying more open space.
The pace of change and Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has made her
divisive, even losing some support among those proud of the Olympics and Paris
becoming a global showcase for urban transformation. Hidalgo’s missteps added to
the resentment, whether that focused on ill-designed bike lanes, several
abandoned urban forests or the endless redevelopment of the Eiffel Tower
gardens.
“She would make a huge announcement and then wait for her teams to comply,” said
Paris urban policy expert Stephane Kirkland, who has worked for firms involved
in Paris city projects. “It was a my-way-or-the-highway approach.”
Rachida Dati has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City
Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
Kirkland said that Grégoire’s campaign has clearly “internalized the new
dynamic” against green issues and exasperation with Hidalgo.
Grégoire “isn’t talking about anything green, even if his coalition includes
green parties. He is really focused on social issues, security and cleanliness,”
Kirkland said.
Dati, the conservative challenger, has tried to seize on public
dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo and accusing the
duo of turning Paris into a dirty, disorganized, never-ending construction
site.
There are limits to that strategy, though. Not even Dati wants to reverse course
on pedestrian zones like those on the banks of the Seine.
Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this report.
LONDON — Keir Starmer is so often portrayed as a process-obsessed lawyer that a
colleague once called him “Mr. Rules.”
But Wednesday’s documents release about the prime minister’s appointment of
Peter Mandelson — a friend of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein —
to be Britain’s ambassador to Washington provides more evidence of the raw
politics that greased the wheels of Downing Street.
There is no “smoking gun” that showed Starmer knew everything about the
Mandelson-Epstein relationship. That’s because he didn’t, and one was never
expected. The question from the PM’s critics has always been whether he should
have taken a different course, given what he did know.
That means the most difficult revelation for Starmer is that a top Foreign
Office official and his most senior foreign policy aide, national security
adviser Jonathan Powell, both had concerns about the appointment — even as the
PM’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, pushed to get it over the line.
In other words: The process was there, but the final call was political — and
rested on the PM’s personal judgement.
‘REPUTATIONAL RISK’
Starmer decided to sack Mandelson last September after new revelations about his
close historic friendship with Epstein. Mandelson has apologized “unequivocally”
for his association with Epstein and “to the women and girls that suffered.”
The prime minister said at that time — and often repeats now — that the “depth
and extent” of the relationship clearly went further than he had known when he
appointed Mandelson.
This is true, but the new files show red flags were there nonetheless.
The 147-page cache published by the U.K. government shows Starmer was warned
that Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein was a “reputational risk.”
A note to the prime minister from Dec. 11, 2024 provides the receipts for what
Starmer recently admitted — that he was warned about reports that Mandelson had
stayed in Epstein’s home after his 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution
from a minor.
Aides also flagged to Starmer the fact — which was not public at the time — that
Mandelson brokered a meeting between his friend Epstein and former PM Tony Blair
in 2002 to talk about “economic and monetary trends.”
Separately, Starmer’s national security adviser Powell raised concerns, albeit
they only appear in the files after Mandelson’s sacking.
The 147-page cache published by the U.K. government shows Starmer was warned
that Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein was a “reputational risk.” | Lucy
North/PA Images via Getty Images
Powell’s misgivings are revealed in notes of a “fact-finding” call between
Powell and the PM’s General Counsel Mike Ostheimer, the evening after Starmer
sacked Mandelson last September.
The notes show Powell — who had worked for years with Mandelson in Tony Blair’s
Downing Street — raised concerns about Mandelson’s reputation directly with
McSweeney.
Powell told Ostheimer he had found the process “unusual” and “weirdly rushed” —
and that the most senior civil servant in the Foreign, Commonwealth and
Development Office, Philip Barton, also “had reservations around the
appointment.”
But Mandelson got the job anyway, and arrangements were made in haste ahead of
Donald Trump’s January 2025 inauguration as U.S. president. Mandelson was handed
his IT equipment and first set of “official sensitive” level files on Boxing
Day.
Two previous shortlists in 2024 — one compiled by Starmer’s predecessor as PM
Rishi Sunak, and a second by McSweeney’s predecessor as chief of staff Sue Gray
— had been torn up before Mandelson strode forward. Starmer made his decision
less than a week after receiving the due diligence report.
‘MORGAN’S FINGERPRINTS ARE ALL OVER THIS’
Wednesday’s document dump shows the political relationships that lay behind this
process.
Two names crop up repeatedly in the files; those of McSweeney and Starmer’s
then-Director of Communications Matthew Doyle, who were both political special
advisers in No. 10 and personal friends of Mandelson.
The documents show that McSweeney and Mandelson spoke to each other repeatedly.
At one point on Dec. 20, 2024, shortly after Starmer approved the appointment,
it was McSweeney who contacted Mandelson personally to flag the need for him to
fill out conflict of interest forms.
When the Epstein friendship was flagged in due diligence, McSweeney had a “back
and forth” with Doyle, the former communications chief told Ostheimer in a
separate fact-finding call.
This back-and-forth resulted in McSweeney asking Mandelson three questions about
his links with Epstein.
After this, Doyle was “satisfied” with Mandelson’s responses about his contact
with Epstein, according to the note to Starmer on Dec. 11, 2024.
Doyle, whom Starmer elevated to the House of Lords, had the Labour whip
suspended in February after it emerged he had campaigned for a friend who had
been convicted of child sex offenses. (Doyle has previously apologized for this
“clear error of judgment.”)
The government has yet to publish extensive WhatsApp and email communications
between Mandelson and Starmer’s ministers and aides. | Richard Baker / In
Pictures via Getty Images
One senior Labour MP, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly, said: “Matthew
Doyle’s understanding of what is appropriate contact with a pedophile is
somewhat questionable.”
Crucially, Mandelson’s answers to McSweeney’s three questions have not yet been
published. The email chain has been held back at the request of the Metropolitan
Police, which is midway through a separate investigation into Mandelson.
When this email chain is eventually published, No. 10 aides believe it will
support Starmer’s case that Mandelson “lied” to Downing Street about his
relationship with Epstein.
Mandelson’s lawyers did not respond to a request for comment after the documents
were released Wednesday.
AN OUTRAGEOUS FORTUNE
There are other elements of the new files that will reassure Starmer’s restive
MPs.
The most obvious is that McSweeney and Doyle have both already left No. 10.
The senior Labour MP quoted above said: “It’s a good thing Morgan’s gone because
his fingerprints are all over this. How could he possibly have stayed?”
A second Labour MP said it was a relief that McSweeney had left. “He was working
against the prime minister’s best interests,” they said.
The other factor cheering Labour MPs is what the files say about Mandelson in
his own words, fueling his new-found status as a Labour hate figure.
The files show Mandelson asked for a £547,201 severance payment after his
sacking (he got £75,000), and told the FCDO’s Chief People Officer Mark Power in
September that his “chief concern” was arriving back with “maximum dignity and
minimum media intrusion.”
“[Labour MPs] are more preoccupied with the £500,000,” said a third Labour MP
loyal to Starmer. “What kind of person asks for that?”
But this is only one step on the road for Starmer’s No. 10, and for possible
questions about the prime minister’s judgement.
The government has yet to publish extensive WhatsApp and email communications
between Mandelson and Starmer’s ministers and aides, not just about his
appointment and dismissal but about broader politics, relationships and
strategy.
Downing Street also announced on Wednesday that it will review the separate
national security vetting system. | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images
Wednesday’s files show the concern that the breadth of this planned publication
— forced in a vote by the opposition Conservative Party — sparked in No. 10. As
Starmer prepared to agree to the transparency earlier this year, his private
secretary for foreign affairs, Ailsa Terry, told a fellow official there should
be a “welfare check” on Mandelson every day.
Downing Street also announced on Wednesday that it will review the separate
national security vetting system — details of which have not been published in
Mandelson’s case — to learn lessons from the former ambassador’s developed
vetting.
ALL FOR WHAT?
The great irony is that Starmer might have avoided all this pain by listening to
officialdom.
Wednesday’s document release confirmed that two unnamed government officials
were found “appointable” for the ambassador job following a recruitment process
in April 2024, under Starmer’s predecessor Sunak.
Two people with knowledge of the process told POLITICO that the lead candidate
was the then-No. 10 national security adviser Tim Barrow, as widely reported at
the time.
And the runner-up? Christian Turner, the two people said.
It is Turner to whom Starmer has now turned for a steadier pair of hands in
Washington. Critics might wonder why he didn’t appoint him in the first place.
Mason Boycott-Owen contributed to this report.
LE HAVRE, France — Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is often seen as the
centrist candidate best placed to challenge the far right in France’s
presidential election next year — but his political future is under threat in
the gritty industrial port of Le Havre.
Philippe, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s most popular former lieutenants,
has been mayor of this city in Normandy since 2020, but polling suggests he now
faces a make-or-break battle not to lose it to a Communist rival in the
municipal elections of March 15 and 22.
If he does lose his northern stronghold — which he also ran from 2010 to 2017 —
Philippe’s loss will send shockwaves through France. The center-right politician
has said that will mean he won’t run in the 2027 election against the candidate
from the far-right National Rally (RN) party — either Marine Le Pen or Jordan
Bardella, the current frontrunners for the presidency.
It will also be a grave personal disappointment for Philippe, who has long held
ambitions to run for the Élysée. As prime minister from 2017 to 2020 he steered
France through the Covid pandemic, but was ultimately sidelined by Macron when
the president wanted to give his government a “new direction,” a decision that
many in the administration believed was due to Philippe’s higher popularity
ratings.
This month’s local elections are an opportunity to launch his campaign ahead of
the 2027 presidential race. But Philippe now risks slipping up before he even
reaches the starting line.
A shock poll from OpinionWay landed last month and predicted that Philippe could
be squeezed out by the far right and far left in the second round of the contest
in Le Havre. Philippe was seen winning only 40 percent, pipped by the Communist
Jean-Paul Lecoq on 42 percent. Franck Keller, backed by the RN, was set to win
18 percent.
The center-right politician has said that will mean he won’t run in the 2027
election against the candidate from the far-right National Rally (RN) party —
either Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. | Adnan Farzat/NurPhoto via Getty
Images
On Friday, POLITICO caught up with 55-year-old Philippe on the campaign train.
He was dashing between events but still keen to grab a beer, drop the
formalities and chat with voters — in true retail politician style.
“Elections are always tight here,” he said in an interview with POLITICO between
two campaign stops on Friday. “Le Havre is a working-class city where the
Communist Party is very rooted and very strong.”
While the Communist Party is no longer the national force it used to be, many of
the issues close to the hearts of its voters are the same as those driving the
National Rally vote in other parts of the country. Here in Le Havre, blue-collar
voters stress job protection, early retirement and a strong welfare state.
In the 2027 presidential race, Philippe would have to convince voters,
disaffected after a decade under Macron, that his brand of center-right politics
is what France needs.
A SHAKY STRONGHOLD
The man who might bring Philippe down is hardly a political big gun. Jean-Paul
Lecoq is a 67-year-old electrician who spent much of his life repairing
typewriters in Le Havre. Unlike Philippe, who was educated in France’s elite
schools, Lecoq had a long career in local politics before becoming a member of
parliament in 2017.
Here in Le Havre, blue-collar voters stress job protection, early retirement and
a strong welfare state. | Lou Benoist/AFP via Getty Images
Lecoq’s team has been buoyed by the OpinionWay poll — the only one available on
Le Havre — which showed Philippe leading in the first round with 37 percent, but
Lecoq winning the runoff.
In a market in the Sanvic neighbourhood of Le Havre, Lecoq lampooned Philippe
for using the local election as a stepping stone for his presidential ambitions.
“He wanted to link the local and the presidential election,” he said. “With
Philippe, it’s me, me, me. I know best.”
Le Havre’s incumbent mayor “has done some beautiful brand-new projects in Le
Havre, turned it into a showcase. But he hasn’t taken care of the city property
… the schools, the sports clubs,” Lecoq said.
The idea he has one eye on the Élysée is getting some traction with voters.
“If he’s elected, and then launches into a presidential campaign, who is going
take over here?” asked Cédric Perisbeau, a former company manager and
stay-at-home father. “If the person is not up to the job, it could all fall
apart here.”
While the political forces in Le Havre are different from the national dynamics,
where the far-right National Rally is tipped to win the presidency, Le Havre is
a testing ground for the type of politics Philippe wants to offer France: debt
reduction, long-term investments, and fewer hand-outs. He describes himself as
“offering very ambitious projects for Le Havre.”
The man who might bring Philippe down is hardly a political big gun. Jean-Paul
Lecoq is a 67-year-old electrician who spent much of his life repairing
typewriters in Le Havre. | Lou Benoist/AFP via Getty Images
“There are few freebies in our campaign, whether it’s free water or transport,”
he told a group of voters. If you stop investing in the city, he argued,
eventually “it hurts a lot.”
But retiree Linda Deloge wanted him to put more resources into childcare and
housing.
“I’m fed up with all the road works,” complained Deloge, who voted for Philippe
in the last election but is undecided this time. Deloge said Phillippe’s track
record was “pretty good,” particularly on rehabilitating run-down neighborhoods,
but added she wanted a greater focus on welfare.
DOUBLE OR NOTHING
The National Rally is relishing its position as potential kingmaker in Le Havre.
In the 2020 municipal election the RN failed to make the second round, but this
time it could do so, challenging Philippe to his right.
The RN has betrayed no willingness to step back in the second round to help
Philippe. “We’ll never pull out,” said one adviser to National Rally leader
Marine Le Pen, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about party strategy.
Even if it lets the Communists in? “We don’t care,” he said.
Philippe, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s most popular former lieutenants,
has been mayor of this city in Normandy since 2020. | Pool photo by Benoit
Tessier/AFP via Getty Images
A poll published late last year showed that far-right leader Bardella would win
in most second-round scenarios against mainstream candidates, but that Philippe
posed the biggest threat, securing 47 percent to Bardella’s 53 percent.
Indeed, Philippe’s supporters say the far right is deliberately exploiting local
politics to wipe him out ahead of the presidential election.
“The National Rally candidate is such a caricature of the outsider who has been
parachuted in to stir things up,” said a former adviser from Philippe’s Horizons
party, a reference to Keller, who was a councilor in the upscale Paris
neighborhood of Neuilly-sur-Seine.
“The National Rally isn’t going to win this election, so all they are going to
do is favor a Communist candidate.”
Although polls have repeatedly shown Philippe as having the best shot against
the far right in 2027, he is being challenged within his own camp by a glut of
presidential hopefuls including former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal,
conservative former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, former Prime Minister
Dominique de Villepin and many others.
A hard-earned victory in a dockers’ city would propel Philippe ahead of his
rivals, his supporters argue, and cement him as a locally-rooted politician who
can appeal to voters beyond the center right.
“It’s like a party primary for him,” said Gilles Boyer, an MEP and longtime ally
of Philippe. “The Havre is a difficult city. If he wins this election … it’ll
give him a boost.”
Philippe also tells his electorate that his national ambitions could help them
too.
“I tell the people here, that if by an extraordinary chance, someone from Le
Havre became president of France, it wouldn’t be a bad thing for Le Havre,” he
said.
Sarah Paillou contributed reporting.
Scattered among the candy shelves and freezer cabinets in Russian supermarkets
across Germany are advertisements promoting a business with a service the
government has tried to outlaw: a logistics company specialized in moving
packages from the heart of Germany to Russia, in defiance of European Union
sanctions.
Trade restrictions have been in place since 2014 and were tightened just after
the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Western nations began to impose far-reaching
financial and trade sanctions on Russia. But an investigation by the Axel
Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, has identified a
clandestine Berlin-based postal system that exploits the special status of
postal parcels to transport all kinds of European goods — including banned
electronics components — into President Vladimir Putin’s empire.
We know every stop and turn in the route because we sent five packages and used
digital tracking devices to follow them — through an illicit 1,100-mile journey
that undermines the sanctions regime European policymakers consider their
strongest tool to generate political pressure on Russian leaders by weakening
their country’s economy.
LS Logistics said its internal controls make violations of EU sanctions
“virtually impossible” but that it was not immune from customers making
fraudulent declarations about the goods they ship.
“Sanctions enforcement is whack-a-mole,” said David Goldwyn, who worked on
sanctions policy as U.S. State Department coordinator for international energy
affairs and now chairs the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s energy
advisory group. “It’s a hard process, and you have to constantly be adapting to
how the evaders are adapting.”
THE UZBEK LABEL
In late December, we packed five square brown parcels with electronic components
specifically banned under EU sanctions and addressed the parcels to locations in
Moscow and St. Petersburg.
When we brought our parcels to the counters of Russian supermarkets in Berlin,
we told salespeople the packages included books, scarves and hats. But they
never checked inside the packages, which in fact held banned electronic
components we rendered unusable before packing. Salespeople charged us 13 euros
per kilogram, about $7 per pound, refusing to provide receipts.
What makes these cardboard packages even more special is their disguise: The
employee does not affix Russian postal stickers to the boxes, but rather those
of UzPost, the national postal service of Uzbekistan. The former Soviet republic
is not subject to EU sanctions.
UzPost maintains close ties to the Russian postal service, according to a person
familiar with the entities’ history of cooperation granted anonymity to discuss
confidential business practices. Tatyana Kim, the CEO of Russian ecommerce
marketplace Wildberries and reputedly her country’s richest woman, recently
acquired a large stake in UzPost, according to media reports.
“We work with partners, including private postal service providers,” the Uzbek
postal service stated in response to our inquiry. “They can use our solutions
for deliveries.”
In Germany, registered logistics companies are permitted to provide postal
services — including pick-up, sorting and delivery — for international postal
operators. However, the Federal Network Agency, which is responsible for postal
oversight, says the Uzbek postal service is not authorized to perform any of
these functions in Germany. (The Federal Network Agency said in a response to
our inquiry that it is “currently reviewing” the case and that it would pursue
penalties for LS if it is found to be using Uzbek documents without
authorization.)
After our packages spent one to two days at the supermarkets, we saw them begin
to move. Inside each package we had placed a small black GPS device, naming them
“Alpha,” “Beta,” “Gamma,” “Delta” and “Epsi.” We could track their movements in
real time in an app, watching them closely as they wound through Berlin’s roads
to Schönefeld, site of the capital’s international airport. There they stopped,
unloaded into a modern warehouse that has been repurposed into a Russian shadow
postal service.
COLOGNE, TECHNICALLY
In 2014, a retired professional gymnast was tasked with launching a subsidiary
of Russia’s national postal service, the RusPost GmbH, which would operate with
official authorization to collect, process and deliver postal items in Germany,
according to a former employee granted anonymity to speak openly about the
business. For 18 years, the St. Petersburg-raised Alexey Grigoryev had competed
and coached at Germany’s highest levels, winning three national championship
titles with the KTV Straubenhardt team and working with an Olympic gold medalist
on the high bar. But he had no evident experience in the postal business.
RusPost’s German business model collapsed upon the imposition of an expanded
sanctions package in the weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February
2022. Much like American sanctions on Russia, the European Union
blocks sensitive technical materials that could boost the Russian defense
sector, while allowing the export of personal effects and quotidian consumer
items.
“The sanctions are accompanied by far-reaching export bans, particularly on
goods relevant to the war, in order to put pressure on the Russian war economy,”
according to a statement the Federal Ministry of Economics provided us.
In March 2022, while conducting random checks of postal traffic to Moscow,
customs officials discovered sanctioned goods (including cash, jewelry and
electrical appliances) in numerous RusPost packages. The Berlin public
prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of the company, concluding that a
former RusPost managing director had deliberately failed to set up effective
control mechanisms, in breach of his duties. He was charged with 62 counts of
attempting to violate the Foreign Trade and Payments Act over an eight-month
period; criminal proceedings are ongoing.
The Russian postal network did not quite disappear, however. A new company
called LS Logistics Solution GmbH was formed in December 2022, according to
corporate filings. LS filled its top jobs, including customs manager and head of
customer service, with former RusPost employees, according to their LinkedIn
profiles.
The new company listed as its business address an inconspicuous semi-detached
house in a residential area of Cologne, across from a church. When we visited,
we found an old white mailbox whose plated sign lists LS Logistics alongside
dozens of other companies supposed to be housed there. But none of them seemed
to be active. The building was empty during business hours, its mailbox
overflowing with discolored brochures and old newspapers.
The operational heart of LS is the warehouse complex in Berlin-Schönefeld, just
a few minutes from the capital’s airport. The building itself is functional and
anonymous: a long, gray industrial structure with several metal rolling doors,
some fitted with narrow window slits. Through them, towering stacks of parcels
are visible, packed tightly, sorted roughly, stretching deep into the hall.
Trucks arrive and depart regularly, from loading bays lit by harsh white
floodlights that cut through the otherwise quiet industrial area. Behind the
warehouse lies a wide concrete parking lot where a black BMW SUV with a license
plate bearing the initials AG is often parked. We saw a man resembling Grigoryev
enter the car. The former head of RusPost officially withdrew from the postal
business after authorities froze the company’s operations. Unofficially,
however, the 50-year-old’s continued presence in Schönefeld suggests otherwise.
According to one former RusPost employee, the warehouse near the airport serves
as a collection point for parcels from all over Europe. Other logistics
companies with Russian management have listed the warehouse as their business
address, some of their logos decorating the façade. LS Logistics Solution GmbH
has the largest sign of them all.
THE A2 GETAWAY
According to tracking devices, our packages spent several days in the warehouse
before being loaded onto 40-ton trucks covered with grey tarps, among several
that leave every day loaded with mail.
They were then driven toward the Polish border, through the German city of
Frankfurt (Oder). Without any long stops, the 40-ton trucks traversed Poland on
the A2 motorway, past Warsaw. Two days after leaving Berlin, they were
approaching the eastern edge of the European Union.
They arrived at a border checkpoint in Brest, the Belarusian city where more
than a hundred years ago Russia signed a peace pact with Germany to withdraw
from World War I. Now it marked the last place for European officials to
identify contraband leaving for countries they consider adversaries.
In 2022, the European Union applied a separate set of sanctions on
Belarus because its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Putin, has
supported Russia’s presence in Ukraine. Yet despite provisions that should have
stopped our packages from leaving Poland, they moved onward into Belarus, their
tracking devices apparently undetected.
What makes this possible is the special legal status that accompanies
international mail. While a formal export declaration is required for the export
of regular goods, such as those moving via container ship or rail freight,
simplified paperwork helps speed up the departure process for postal items. At
Europe’s borders, this distinction becomes crucial, as postal packages are
examined largely on risk-based checks rather than comprehensive inspections.
“International postal items are subject to the regular provisions of customs
supervision both on import and on export and transit and are checked on a
risk-oriented basis in accordance with applicable EU and national legislation,
including with regard to compliance with sanctions regulations,” the German
General Customs Directorate stated in response to our inquiry.
Two of our tracking devices briefly lost their signal in Belarus — likely part
of a widespread pattern of satellite navigation systems being disrupted across
Eastern Europe — but after a journey of around 1,100 miles, they all showed the
same destination. Our packages had reached Russia’s largest cities.
Ukrainian authorities told us they were not surprised by our investigation. The
country’s presidential envoy for sanctions policy, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, said at
the Ukrainian embassy in Berlin that his government regularly collects
intelligence on such schemes and shares it with international partners.
“Nobody is doing enough, if you look at the number of cases,” Vlasiuk said.
ONE STEP BEHIND
After the arrival of the packages, we confronted all parties involved, including
LS Logistics Solution GmbH, the mysterious shipper that helped transport the
goods from Europe to Russia. We called Grigoryev several times, but he never
answered; efforts to reach him through the company failed as well. An LS
executive would not answer our questions about his role.
“Our internal control mechanisms are designed in such a way that violations of
EU sanctions are virtually impossible,” LS managing director Anjelika Crone
wrote to us. “Shipments that do not meet the legal requirements are not
processed further. We are not immune to fraudulent misdeclarations, such as
those that obviously underlie the ‘test shipments’ you refer to.” Crone said she
could not answer further questions due to data protection and contractual
confidentiality concerns.
This month, Germany took steps to strengthen enforcement of its sanctions
regime, expanding the range of violations subject to criminal penalties. The
law, passed by the Bundestag in January, amends the country’s Foreign Trade and
Payments Act to integrate a European Union directive harmonizing criminal
sanctions law across its 27 member states and ensure efficient, uniform
enforcement. Germany was one of the 18 countries put on notice by EU officials
last May for having failed to follow the 2024 directive.
The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs, which is responsible for implementing
the new policy, argued in a statement to the Axel Springer Global Reporters
Network that the very ingenuity of the logistics network we unmasked operating
within Germany was a testament to the strength of the country’s sanctions
regime.
“The state-organized Russian procurement systems operate at enormous financial
expense to create ever new and more complex diversion routes,” said ministry
spokesperson Tim-Niklas Wentzel. “This confirms that the considerable compliance
efforts of many companies and the work of the sanctions enforcement authorities
in combating circumvention are also having a practical effect. Procurement is
becoming increasingly difficult, time-consuming, and expensive for Russia.”
According to those who have tried to administer sanctions laws, that argument
rings true — but only partly.
“It’s probably more fair to say that sanctions had a material impact and
increased the cost of bad actors to achieve their goals. But to say that they’re
working well is probably overstating the truth of the matter,” said Max
Meizlish, formerly an official with the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets
Control and now a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
“When there’s evasion, it requires enforcement,” Meizlish went on. “And when you
need more enforcement I think it’s hard to make a compelling case that the tool
is working as intended.”
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