BRUSSELS — The European Commission has unconditionally approved Mars’ $36
billion acquisition of Kellanova following an in-depth review of the
transaction.
The Commission said it had concluded that the deal — which combines Mars’
confectionery and pet food brands with Kellanova’s snacks and cereals — would
not significantly increase the merged entity’s bargaining power vis-à-vis
retailers.
The EU executive referred the deal, which was originally announced in Aug. 2024,
for an in-depth review in June.
“We looked very carefully at this deal to make sure that Mars would not gain
extra power over retailers,” said Teresa Ribera, the executive vice president of
the Commission responsible for competition. “Our review found no evidence that
this risk exists.”
The Commission’s probe focused on whether the expanded portfolio would allow
Mars to extract higher prices from supermarkets by leveraging a so-called
“basket effect” — but determined that there was insufficient evidence to support
this theory.
Following its review, the Commission determined that, because products like
Pringles and chocolate bars are typically “impulsive and infrequent purchases,”
consumers are unlikely to change supermarkets based on their availability.
Tag - agriculture and food
Paul McCartney has joined forces with U.K. MPs who are urging Brussels to scrap
any plans to ban the use of meat-related names such as “burger” and
“sausage” for plant-based products.
The proposed EU ban, if passed into law, would prohibit food producers from
using designations such as “veggie burger” or “vegan sausage” for plant-based
and lab-grown dishes.
“To stipulate that burgers and sausages are ‘plant-based,’ ‘vegetarian’ or
‘vegan’ should be enough for sensible people to understand what they are
eating,” the former Beatles star, who became a vegetarian in 1975, told The
Times of London. “This also encourages attitudes essential to our health and
that of the planet.”
The proposed EU ban “could increase confusion” and “undermine economic growth,
sustainability goals, and the EU’s own simplification agenda,” eight British
MPs, including Jeremy Corbyn, wrote in a letter to Brussels.
The Times reported the contents of the letter Saturday evening. The missive
includes the support of the McCartney family, which owns a business selling
vegetarian food and recipes.
The looming ban stems from an amendment that French center-right MEP Céline
Imart introduced into legislation that aims to reform EU farming rules. These
proposed reforms include how farmers sign contracts with buyers alongside other
technical provisions.
The bill is now subject to legislative negotiations with the Council of the EU,
which represents EU governments.
The proposed rules will become law if and when MEPs and the Council agree on a
final version of the legislation to become EU law. MPs in the U.K. fear that the
ban, if it survives, would also impact British supermarkets, as markets and
companies across the continent are so closely intertwined.
Imart’s burger-busting tweaks were supposed to be a gesture of respect toward
the French farmers that she represents — but they have divided MEPs within her
own European People’s Party.
“A steak is not just a shape,” Imart told POLITICO in an interview last month.
“People have eaten meat since the Neolithic. These names carry heritage. They
belong to farmers.”
Limiting labels for vegetarian producers will also help shoppers understand the
difference between a real burger and a plant-based patty, according to Imart,
despite years of EU surveys showing consumers largely understand the difference.
U.K. MPs also cite research in their letter, stating that European shoppers
“overwhelmingly understand and support current naming conventions” such as
“veggie burger.”
President Donald Trump has changed his position on more than a few things over
the years, but in at least one area he’s been consistent: tariffs. The president
is a tariff man, as he’s fond of saying. And the man behind the man in this
instance is U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
A longtime trade lawyer who served in the first Trump administration, Greer is
now working to help revamp the global trading system at the president’s behest —
and he rejects the widespread criticism that Trump’s sweeping tariff regime has
been rolled out haphazardly.
“Yes, there’s a strategy,” Greer said in a new interview with The Conversation.
“First of all, you don’t change 70 years of trade policy overnight. And second
of all, when some people say, ‘Oh, well, this is chaos. What’s your strategy?’,
what they really want to know is can we go back to how it was before? And that’s
not going to happen.”
Much of the president’s tariff agenda is currently at risk amid a seemingly
skeptical Supreme Court, though Greer professed confidence and said the White
House had backup options if need be.
Perhaps most worrisome for the administration is the politics of higher prices,
and Greer was eager to bat down charges that tariffs were to blame.
“People are worried about housing, they’re worried about healthcare — things we
don’t import,” he said.
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
You have probably the most important portfolio of this administration given just
how big of a priority trade has been for the president. I was at many a Trump
rally when he talked about how “tariff” is his favorite word, now his fifth
favorite word, “God, love, wife,” something else.
Yeah, he had to moderate a little bit on that.
You are a veteran trade lawyer. You served in Trump’s first term as chief of
staff to then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. What is different
about the approach this time around?
In the first Trump administration, we were charting new waters, right? We were
coming into the so-called Washington consensus that tariffs were bad and we
shouldn’t protect domestic industry and we shouldn’t try to make tough deals
with our friends and foe alike.
Now having laid the groundwork in the first term, showing we could use tariffs
effectively while having a booming economy, the president was able to move to
his true vision, which he’s had for many years, which is to protect the American
economy with tariffs, use them as leverage where needed to get foreign market
access, and otherwise use them for geopolitical issues.
So where we were walking in the first term, now we can run and fly, frankly.
One of the narratives around the tariffs is that the strategy is chaos, that
this has been really unpredictable. I’ve heard from businesses that it’s been a
challenge because they’re just not sure where all of this is going to land, plus
you have all of the legal cases on top of that. So is the strategy chaos? Is
there a strategy?
So yes, there’s a strategy. First of all, you don’t change 70 years of trade
policy overnight. And second of all, when some people say, “Oh, well, this is
chaos. What’s your strategy?”, what they really want to know is can we go back
to how it was before? And that’s not going to happen. A lot of people focus on
April 2 Liberation Day. We announced potentially very, very high tariffs. But I
would focus people more on Aug. 1, and I use that date because that is the date
where the president really set the tariff rates, and where we announced a bunch
of deals. And from there, the structure that has played out demonstrates the
strategy that we have.
If you look at the tariff setup in the world that’s come out of the president’s
program, the highest tariffs are on China. Again, not because we bear China any
ill will, but because we have a giant trade deficit with them and they have a
lot of unfair trading practices. The next set of highest tariffs is Southeast
Asia, India, these other areas that use a lot of Chinese content, Southeast Asia
in particular, and we have giant trade deficits with them, Vietnam, for example.
And then the next highest tariff rates, and these are usually about 15 percent,
folks who are allies but with whom we have big trade issues: Korea, Japan,
Europe, etc. And then the lowest tariff rates are really in the Western
Hemisphere, where we want our supply chains to be, where it’s very secure. So
you can really see almost like concentric rings going out from China, what the
tariff rates are like. We have a couple outliers right now. India has a higher
tariff for some geopolitical reasons. They buy Russian oil. Brazil has some
higher tariffs.
Economy & Education: U.S. trade rep. Greer and teacher’s union head Weingarten |
The ConversationSharePlay Video
We were close to a deal there over the summer and it got derailed. What happened
there?
The president wants deals but he only wants good deals. And so whenever you
present a deal to the president, the question is, am I better off with just
having the tariff? And the assessment of the deal in the summer with India was,
well, I think we’re just better off with the tariff than with the potential
deal. But that has not stopped us from continuing conversations. It’s still
going quite well, I would say, with the Indians. There’s a separate issue where
they were buying Russian oil. They’ve stopped doing that largely now. So I think
we could see some tariff modification at some point for them. But I’m confident
that we’ll get a deal with India at some point in the future, maybe the near
future. It’ll be up to the president and Prime Minister Modi.
Have you been involved at all in talking about a potential future trading
partnership with Russia after the end of the war?
Not very much. Even before the war, we didn’t have a huge trading relationship
with Russia. We would get oil and steel and some fertilizer from them. We’d ship
them cars and some ag products. So it was never a giant trading relationship. If
the war ends then obviously there may be opportunity there. But we’re really
focused on big export markets.
There’s been a ton of debate about the short, medium and long term impact of
these tariffs. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development just
released a report saying the world economy has been surprisingly resilient in
the face of Trump’s trade wars, but they added that they expect higher tariffs
to gradually result in higher prices and reduce growth in household consumption
and business investment. How do you respond to that assessment and are you
worried about some economic pain in the short term?
I just look at the data, right? They’re saying we think it’ll lead to lower
growth in the future or higher prices or something, but they’ve been saying that
for a long time. And the data show that last quarter was 3.8 percent [annual]
growth. The Atlanta Fed is projecting 4.2 percent growth next year. We’ve seen
inflation in check. We’ve seen imported goods remain relatively low-priced.
Where we see prices high are things like housing and health care, because
Obamacare is a disaster.
The Supreme Court is weighing whether to narrow the president’s use of the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act — IEEPA — which is the 1970s-era law
that the administration has cited for imposing many of these tariffs. How are
you preparing for the possibility that one of these main tariff authorities
you’ve been using could be constrained?
First of all, we believe the law and the facts are on our side. This Supreme
Court has talked about how important it is to simply analyze the plain text of
the law. And if you look at the plain text, it says the president, if he
determines there’s an emergency, he can regulate imports. And he’s determined
there’s an emergency and he’s regulating imports, which is the tariff.
Now, we’ve been thinking about this plan for five years or longer. Since the
first term. So you can be sure that when we came to the president at the
beginning of the term, we had a lot of different options. IEEPA is the most
appropriate because there is an emergency with the trade deficit and the loss of
manufacturing, and it has the flexibility that you need to respond to the type
of emergency that there is.
My message is tariffs are going to be a part of the policy landscape going
forward. Are there other ways to do it? Courts during this process have actually
cited those different tools. And while we certainly can use those, IEEPA is the
best tool. It fits the situation, and we’re looking forward to hearing back from
the Supreme Court soon.
But you’re prepared for alternative measures if they do decide to constrain
IEEPA?
Well, I’m not going to go into too much detail about that, or else I’ll get in
trouble with my general counsel.
But you’ve got something in your back pocket.
Of course.
Regardless of how the Supreme Court rules on this, the administration’s
reciprocal tariffs could be reversed by a future president. Is there any plan to
go to Congress to try to codify any of this stuff?
Well, if I were Congress, I would codify it. I have heard from a handful of
members of Congress from all over the ideological spectrum, whether left or
right or progressive or conservative, free trader or protectionist — however you
want to characterize it. I’ve heard a lot of interest in this and for a lot of
reasons.
People have seen what I just described, which is that you can implement tariffs
and have growth at the same time. You can protect your supply chains and have
wages increase. You can do all of these things together, especially if you
couple it with good energy policy, etc. I’ve also had members of Congress come
to me, people who maybe weren’t fans of tariffs two years ago, and they said,
“This is actually real money that’s coming in that can be used to pay down the
debt or pay for other things or finance our reindustrialization.”
Who are those members?
Well, I won’t betray their confidences.
You said that some members are telling you, “Hey, I’ve changed my mind on
tariffs.” There are other members that have spoken privately or publicly, saying
“These tariffs are hurting my constituents,” particularly people in farm states.
I’m thinking GOP Sens. Chuck Grassley and Rand Paul and a number of folks that
have come out and said they’re concerned. What do you say to members of Congress
who feel that this is not beneficial for their folks?
Well Sen. Paul is a little bit of a man on an island on this issue.
Well sure, but Rep. Don Bacon —
He [Paul] compared me to a Soviet commissar in some comments.
All right, we’ll leave Rand Paul on the side here, but there are others like
Bacon and Grassley and other folks that have voiced some concerns.
I’ve talked to Sen. Grassley a lot, and he knows a lot about trade. He’s been
around a long time and as a general matter, it sounds to me frequently that he
is quite aligned with the president in terms of wanting to get foreign market
access, particularly for his folks who are trying to sell pork and soybeans
overseas. We have made sure, in addition to securing soybean purchases from
China, who’s a big customer, to open markets in Southeast Asia in particular for
soybeans. Markets that were never open before. Now these countries are taking
down their tariff, they’re taking down their non-tariff barriers. And so on
that, I think we’re aligned.
There’s always concern when you’re changing what’s a 70-year trade policy to
something new, and there can be frictions. But we are careful to listen to these
folks again, from both sides of the aisle, find out what their concerns are and
respond to them.
The president did exempt some agricultural imports from tariffs amid ongoing
concerns about higher prices. Why didn’t he do that from the beginning? How did
that shift come about?
First of all, inflation’s been in check. So let’s just clear the air on that.
Secondly, in early September, the president signaled, he put out an executive
order, and we made a list of all the — whether it’s agricultural goods or
minerals or things that physically can’t be grown in the United States or
extracted from the United States. The rocks aren’t here, or you can’t grow a
banana here, on any scale. So in early September, he put out an executive order.
He said, as I do deals with countries, I will release tariffs on these items.
Why? Because we get them from those countries.
There seems to be a real resistance in the language around tariffs to say that
tariffs are causing higher prices. Nobody wants to really say that. But in
making the exemptions, aren’t you basically acknowledging that tariffs do lead
to higher prices on products?
No.
Okay. Can you explain?
There’s never really a 1-to-1 with a tariff. In the first term, when we put
tariffs on China, inflation actually went down. As we were putting tariffs in
place, inflation went down. We’ve seen a similar effect here. When the president
says, “We’re going to have deals with you folks,” you have to have leverage,
right? And so you keep tariffs on folks for all kinds of things and it becomes a
carrot. So it’s a lot easier for me to go to Ecuador or Indonesia or Vietnam and
say, “Listen, if you do a deal with us and we’ve announced frameworks or full
agreements with all these countries I just mentioned, then at a given time, we
will release these things because obviously we don’t make them.”
When you have a tariff, it doesn’t necessarily go through to the consumer. I
don’t want to get too technical here for you, except I’m kind of nerdy about it.
But sometimes does it?
I mean it can, right?
Like on those things that you mentioned, like coffee and bananas and all of that
stuff?
It depends on what the production economy is like. And when I say production
economy, say bananas, if you have a hundred banana producers overseas, they’re
all going to compete for market share in the U.S. because we’re the biggest
consumer of a lot of these things. And so they will compete to eat the tariff.
Do you see what I’m saying?
I do, but when voters who don’t understand this are going to the grocery store
and seeing that prices haven’t gone down, how do you tackle that with all the
leverage that you’re talking about?
Well, I can’t control the weather in Brazil with a tariff. Coffee prices, for
example, have been going up for two years. Before there was ever a tariff on
coffee for six months or whatever we had. And there are secular pricing trends
in coffee and cocoa that were going on well before. And beef, these kinds of
things.
All that being said, we don’t have to have a tariff on these things. We don’t
make them here. We can have a tariff on them for leverage, which is how the
president used them. It’s how he said he was going to use it. He signaled in
September, these are for leverage to finish the deals. So we were well placed
two months later once we announced the rest of our deals to take the tariff off.
The US-Mexico-Canada agreement — USMCA — that Trump negotiated in his first term
is facing a mandatory review next year. What are the top changes that the
administration is looking to make?
When you think about the U.S., Canada, Mexico agreement, there are a few things
we trade among us in a massive way. One of them is automobiles, another’s
agriculture, another is energy. With respect to the auto trade, the goal is to
make more autos in the United States of America. Mexico has been a huge
beneficiary of NAFTA and then of USMCA. And so the president, earlier in his
second term, imposed tariffs on autos globally, including on Mexico. So there’s
an overlap between those tariffs and our agreement and USMCA. And those tariffs,
which are about 25 percent, are layered over USMCA.
Now all of that being said, we can look at the underlying rules of USMCA. If
something comes in and gets special duty treatment or a lower tariff, there’s
usually a rule of origin associated with it that says a certain amount of this
widget has to come from the region. Otherwise you have to pay a higher tariff.
We can change some of those rules to make them tighter, to have a higher
percentage have to come from the United States. Those are the kinds of things we
can do. There’s also a bunch of stuff in Mexico and Canada where maybe they
discriminate against our companies. It could be telecom companies or it could be
our corn exports. There are a variety of little things like that that may seem
small and don’t lend themselves to sound bites, but they mean a lot for
agricultural producers.
Is there still a scenario where the U.S. could walk away from USMCA or is that
off the table at this point?
I mean that’s always a scenario, right? The president’s view is he only wants
deals that are a good deal. The reason why we built a review period into USMCA
was in case we needed to revise it, review it or exit it. I have heard from a
lot of folks how important USMCA is. Canada and Mexico are huge export markets
for us.
I was in the White House yesterday, and we were talking about USMCA. What about
Mexico? What about Canada? You know, the possibility that we kind of negotiate
separately with them, right? Their economies are subject to it.
Yeah, where’s his head at right now?
Listen, our relationship with the Canadian economy is totally different than our
relationship with the Mexican economy. The labor situation’s different, the
stuff that’s being made is different, the export and import profile is
different. It actually doesn’t make a ton of economic sense why we would marry
those three together. The actual trade between Canada and Mexico is much smaller
than the trade between the U.S. and Canada and U.S. and Mexico. Sometimes you’ll
hear people say, “Oh, well, you know, USMCA, it’s a $31 trillion agreement.”
It’s like, well, yeah, but like $29 trillion is us. So I think it makes sense to
talk to them separately about that agreement. A lot of the underlying rules are
helpful and you know our exporters benefit from them, but we have to make sure
that we are getting the benefit of our bargain on USMCA.
You were in Brussels recently, talking about deals. Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick said when he was over there that the U.S. could modify its approach on
steel and aluminum tariffs if the EU reconsidered its digital rules. Some
European officials were a little irked by that and interpreted it as targeting
the EU’s flagship tech regulations, including the Digital Markets Act. Europe’s
antitrust chief, Teresa Ribera told POLITICO that Washington is
using “blackmail” to strong-arm the EU. What’s your response to that?
That’s a totally extreme thing to say. The problem is the Digital Markets Act
and other European digital regulations and regulations outside of digital, they
actually target U.S. companies. And how do we know that? First of all, when all
these laws were being passed, all the European parliamentarians and all the
leaders in Europe were saying, “We’re going to implement these laws to get
Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft.” In fact, they have certain taxes
over there, and they call them GAFA tax. The acronym is for American companies.
And then they have these thresholds built into these laws where if you meet a
certain global revenue threshold or you have a certain business model, and just
magically they only capture U.S. companies.
We reported last month that the European Commission was set to present a list to
you of sectors that it wants to be exempted from U.S. tariffs. The list was
expected to include medical devices, wine — which is very important to me —
spirits, beers and pasta. Where do those deliberations stand?
Well, they did not present such a list.
Ah!
And the reason why is because under our deal from the summer, the United States
has already adjusted its tariff levels for Europe, and Europe is still adjusting
its tariffs. And I don’t say this to be critical. They have a legal process they
have to go through, and they’re proceeding through it as quickly as they can, I
think. So it would be weird for them to come and say, “We haven’t finished
making our tariff adjustments yet, and we want more from you.” Listen, if they
want to come and talk about other tariff adjustments, that’ll be up to the
president and that kind of thing. But it’s a sequencing issue. Like why would I
give them more tariff relief before they’ve done their part of the bargain,
right? That doesn’t make sense.
Trump talked about tariffs on the campaign trail, but I don’t think a lot of the
world, particularly our allies in Europe, were necessarily prepared for the
scale, as you mentioned earlier. When you were in Brussels, for example, can you
give me a little bit of a behind-the-scenes on what those conversations are like
when you sit across a table?
Sure. So we are eleven months into this presidency. And I would say that most of
our European partners have frankly become quite pragmatic. In the first term,
when we talked about tariffs and changing the global structure, there was a lot
of almost religious-sounding sermonizing from the Europeans. For them,
international institutions and what they believe is international law, this is
like religion. It’s their religion, and they have these high priests and the
European Commission, all these places. But the folks we’re dealing with right
now in the European Commission, President von der Leyen, the trade commissioner,
these are pragmatic folks. They understand the facts on the ground. They
understand the U.S. view. They understand we have these huge trade deficits that
are not sustainable. And so the conversations are constructive. We’re not
fighting about policy, we’re talking about implementation. So that’s all
positive.
All that being said, there are two or three countries that still like to
sermonize a little bit about this. The ambassador from one country came to me
and said, “Well, how can you use these tariffs against us? You know, tariffs are
bad, blah, blah, blah.” I said, if tariffs are so bad, then how come your
tariffs on us are so high still? And he said, “Well, I’m not trying to
negotiate.” But I mean, that’s my point. They come and they say, “Well, you
shouldn’t have tariffs,” but European tariffs have been higher on the U.S.
historically for many years.
You said the conversations are productive and pragmatic now. Is that a shift
from early this year?
Yes. Yes, a hundred percent.
So where does the EU deal stand?
We had our joint statement in August. We’ve adjusted our tariffs to be a little
bit lower for them. They’re in the process of adjusting theirs. We have a lot of
non-tariff barriers that we face in Europe, regulatory constraints,
certifications, inspection regimes, things that are duplicative, things that gum
up trade between the United States and Europe.
Did Brussels move that all forward?
I would say so. It was less of a negotiating trip and more of taking stock of
where we are, where we’re divergent and next steps. We have a small team coming
over from the Europeans next week to really talk about how we can better
memorialize changes in these non-tariff barriers going forward. Because even
though the Europeans are taking down most of their tariffs for us, if you take
down the tariff but there’s still non-tariff barriers, it’s not effective market
access. So we have to do both the tariffs and the non-tariff barriers.
We can’t talk about trade without talking about China. What is the
administration’s endgame with China? Is it coexistence? Is it decoupling? Is it
selective engagement? What is it?
Well, it’s funny because Washington creates these kind of fake categories.
They’ll say, “Oh, well, either you’re a China hawk or a China dove.” The way we
think about it in the administration is we’re pro-American. We’re not
anti-China. We’re not China doves. We’re not China hawks. We are pro-American.
I think you meant to say America First.
Well, yes, America First. Thank you. And sometimes you hear people saying, “For
America to win, China has to lose.” I just don’t think that’s the case. I mean,
the reality is we are going to do what’s right for America in terms of trade.
And in some cases, it means we have to have a tariff on countries, higher
tariffs on some, like China, because they’re a bigger issue with respect to
trade. They have more trade cheating, they have more subsidies and that kind of
thing. If China still manages to be successful? Fine. We’re not here to try to
contain China. We’re here to make sure that America has a strong national
security, strong economic security, that our workers have jobs that are good for
them in the towns and cities where they live, that they can raise a family.
That’s what we’re trying to do. If China rises or falls on that, that’s kind of
up to them. We’re happy to work with them. They have their own plans.
One thing I will say is people act like American policy drives Chinese reaction,
that China’s just always reacting to us. And I think they want us to think that,
but they’re agents unto themselves. They publish a new policy every five years.
They announced this Made in China 2025 project in 2015, well before President
Trump was the president. So they have their own economic plans, which are
oftentimes adverse to our interests, and so we will control for that, whether
through tariffs or other measures.
We just saw voters in this last election in November clearly send a message that
affordability, cost of living really, really matters. What can you tell the
American people about what they can expect to see going into next year? How will
all of this impact not the markets, but their day-to-day?
What I would say is trade, it’s not a big factor in the affordability
discussion. When you look at affordability, it’s really about the crazy high
expenses for health care that were engendered by Obamacare, which was a
disaster. It’s about housing expenses that went way up during the Biden years
and are still —
But some people, as they’re shopping for Christmas, are connecting prices at
Walmart and at the grocery store to the affordability conversation.
I’ve talked to Walmart officials, I’ve talked to all kinds of officials, and
they have said that they’re not raising prices. At back-to-school time in
September, they say we’re not raising prices. They’re still doing their
rollback. I know that’s a press narrative, but it’s actually not a true
narrative. When you talk about affordability, people are worried about it.
People are worried about housing, they’re worried about healthcare — things we
don’t import.
But where trade comes into it is when you have a trade system in place that
protects U.S. jobs, you get higher incomes. So the blue collar wages are up this
year. That’s what matters. In the first term, we had real income increase, up
until the pandemic, which was like this black swan event. That’s what we’re
trying to do with trade. Trade is not, “Let’s manage affordability through
trade.” Trade is, “Let’s make sure we have good paying jobs here, especially for
that working class whose jobs went away to Mexico or Vietnam or China. And so if
you have blue-collar wages going up, whatever price effects are going on from
all kinds of things in the economy — as long as the real income is outpacing
whatever price effects there are — that’s what we’re looking for. That’s what
we’re seeing.
What about those tariff dividends that the president has floated?
Well, you can talk to Scott Bessent. I don’t control the money. I just put the
tariffs on to make the deals.
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Ban Ki-moon is the eighth secretary-general of the U.N. and the co-chair of the
Ban Ki-moon Centre for Global Citizens. Ana Toni is the CEO of COP30.
As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil for this year’s United Nations Climate
Change Conference (COP30), we are standing at a global tipping point. 2024 broke
temperature records, as the world temporarily surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius
target for the first time. And now, we’re on track to cross it permanently
within just five years.
This means adaptation action has never been more vital for our survival.
From the year 2000 to 2019, climate change already cost the world’s most
vulnerable countries an estimated $525 billion. This burden only continues to
rise, putting lives at risk and undoing hard-won development gains, with global
annual damages likely to land somewhere between $19 trillion and $59 trillion in
2050. Even more sobering, the world economy is already locked into a 19 percent
loss of income by 2050 due to climate change, no matter how successful today’s
mitigation efforts are.
This makes one thing clear: The consequence of inaction is far greater than the
consequence of action. The world must stop seeing adaptation as a cost to bear
but as an investment that strengthens economies and builds healthier, more
secure communities.
Every dollar invested in adaptation can generate more than 10 times that in
benefits through avoided losses, as well as induced economic, social and
environmental benefits. Every dollar invested in agricultural research and
development generates similar returns for smallholder farmers, vulnerable
communities and ecosystems too.
This remains true even if climate-related disasters don’t occur. Effective
adaptation does more than save lives — it makes the economic case for
resilience. And if we really want to tackle the crises of today’s world, we need
to put people — especially those most vulnerable — at the center of all our
conversations and efforts. Those least responsible for climate change are the
ones our financing must reach.
Here, locally led adaptation provides a path forward, focusing on giving
communities agency over their futures, addressing structural inequalities and
enhancing local capacities.
Today, more than 2 billion people depend on smallholder farms for their
livelihoods, but as little as 1.7 percent of climate finance reaches Indigenous
communities and locally operated farms. Small-scale agri-food systems, which are
essential to many in developing countries, receive a mere 0.8 percent of
international climate finance.
This is deeply unjust. These are the people and systems most threatened by
climate impacts — and they’re often the best-placed ones to deliver locally
effective and regionally adaptive solutions.
To that end, appropriate investments in global networks like the Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) could accelerate and scale
technologies that can be adopted by these local systems. These tools could then
be used to improve resilience and increase productivity in low- and
middle-income countries, while also reducing inequalities and advancing gender
equity and social inclusion.
The world economy is already locked into a 19 percent loss of income by 2050 due
to climate change. | Albert Llop/Getty Images
Scaling such efforts will be crucial in moving toward systemic climate
solutions. Our ambition is to move from negotiation to implementation to protect
lives, safeguard assets and advance equity.
But it’s important to remember that adaptation is distinct — it is inherently
local; shaped by geography, communities and governance systems. Meeting this
challenge will require more than just pledges. It will necessitate high-quality
public and private adaptation finance that is accessible to vulnerable countries
and communities.
That’s why governments around the world — especially those in high-income
countries — must design institutional arrangements and policies that raise
additional public funds, incentivize markets and embed resilience into every
investment decision.
The decade since the Paris Agreement laid the foundations for a world at peace
with the planet. And with COP30 now taking place in the heart of the Amazon, we
must make adaptation a global priority and see resilience as the investment
agenda of the 21st century.
At its core, climate finance should be driving development pathways that put
people first. In Belém, leaders must now close the adaptation finance gap and
ensure funding reaches those on the front lines. They need to back investable
national resilience strategies, replicate successful initiatives and put
resilience at the center of financial decision-making.
COP30 needs to be transformative and lead to markets that reward resilience,
communities that are better protected and economies built on firmer, more
climate-resilient foundations. Let this be the moment we finally move from
awareness to alignment, and from ambition to action.
Our collective survival depends on it. Question is, will our leaders have the
political will to seize it?
KYIV — Oleksandra Avramenko lowers her car window, not for fresh air but to
listen. Stuck in morning traffic in downtown Kyiv, on the right bank of the
Dnipro River, she leans toward the whine of motorcycles weaving through the
lanes.
“Whenever I hear that noise, I cringe,” she says. “They sound just like the
drones.”
It has been more than three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion,
and over a decade since the war first erupted in Donbas.
Kyiv has adapted to the new normal: constant sirens, interceptions and
explosions on one side, cafés and bars buzzing with people on the other.
Theaters sell out their shows and children have begun the new school year in
shelters. At night, many families keep a spare mattress in hallways or
bathrooms, following official advice to sleep between at least two walls, away
from windows, in case a missile hits.
But beneath those routines lies a deeper unease — that the rest of Europe is
tired, turning its attention away from the war and viewing it as something that
should simply end, no matter the cost to Ukraine. And with that feeling comes
the worry: that the European dream that once felt within reach is suddenly
slipping away.
Avramenko, a 33-year-old policy advisor, feels this shift each time she returns
to Kyiv across Poland, the main transit hub for Ukrainians heading in and out of
the European Union. She now lives in Northern Europe, where she moved five years
ago for her husband’s job, but has no plans to apply for EU citizenship —
“Ukrainian already means European,” she says.
Kyiv has adapted to the new normal: constant sirens, interceptions and
explosions on one side, cafés and bars buzzing with people on the other. |
Aleksandr Gusev/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
The 12-hour train ride from Kyiv to the EU frontier is crowded with women and
children and haunted by the risk of drone strikes from the east. The men aboard
are regarded with suspicion.
The border checks feel heavier than in the early days of Russia’s invasion.
Polish officials ask why travelers are leaving Ukraine, how long they plan to
stay, what their purpose is. Belongings are unpacked in search of contraband.
“Back then, people opened their homes. Today, the questions are sharper,”
Avramenko says.
She stresses she feels no resentment; like most Ukrainians, she is grateful for
Poland’s support. But the shift captures a wider mood. Confidence in swift EU
accession has sunk to its lowest point since the invasion, with just over half
of Ukrainians believing membership will come in the next decade, down from more
than 70 percent in 2022, according to an August poll.
Nearly one in five now think the EU will never admit Ukraine at all.
‘WHY DON’T THEY CARE LIKE BEFORE?’
In 2022, balconies across Europe sprouted Ukrainian flags. Aid convoys streamed
eastward. Strangers opened their doors to refugees.
Four days into the invasion, with Russian tanks closing in on Kyiv, President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed Ukraine’s application for EU membership. “We are
fighting for our rights, our freedoms, our lives — and for our survival,” he
said in an address that week. “We are also fighting to be equal members of
Europe. So now, prove that you are with us. Prove that you are Europeans, and
then life will win over death, and light will win over darkness.”
A month later, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to
Kyiv to deliver the bloc’s first answer. “Ukraine belongs in the European
family,” she declared, handing Zelenskyy a membership questionnaire. “This is
where your path toward the European Union begins … we will accelerate this
process as much as we can.”
That political backing is still there, but public enthusiasm has waned. As
recently as April, von der Leyen mused that Ukraine could join the bloc before
2030. Yet as the accession process grinds forward, Ukrainians are watching
nervously as public enthusiasm in parts of Europe falters, making the early
momentum harder to sustain.
Neighboring Poland, one of Ukraine’s loudest political champions, is the
starkest example.
A survey carried out in early summer found that only 35 percent of Poles back
Kyiv’s EU accession, down from 85 percent in 2022. More than half of the
population says they would prefer the war to end even if it means ceding
territory to Russia.
Most Poles also believe that the scale of assistance offered to Ukrainian
refugees has already gone too far, according to a study from the start of the
year. That’s despite evidence refugees have had a positive impact on Poland’s
economy by filling labor gaps and boosting growth.
The pattern repeats elsewhere in Europe.
In Germany, a majority still supports sending aid to Ukraine, but 52 percent
believe Kyiv should give up occupied lands for peace. Across the continent,
countries like Italy and France maintain official support, but their publics are
increasingly skeptical about welcoming Ukraine as an EU member.
“Everyone asks: What’s happening in Poland, in Germany? Why don’t they care like
before?” Avramenko says. She knows EU governments still pledge support, but she
worries that for the broader public, Ukraine has become background noise.
That sense of fading attention abroad jars against the reality in Kyiv, where
the war remains impossible to ignore.
On Sept. 7, Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine yet, with 810
drones and missiles setting fire to government offices and wrecking residential
areas across the country. Only a fraction slipped past Kyiv’s dense air defenses
— enough to kill three civilians, including a baby.
A week earlier, another strike tore through a Kyiv apartment block, killing 22,
among them four children.
‘WE CHOSE OUR FUTURE HERE‘
As dusk settles over the city’s Maidan Square, a few dozen demonstrators unfurl
banners at the foot of the Independence Monument, their voices carrying through
the warm evening air. Under martial law, mass protests against government
policies have all but vanished; this is only the second one allowed to go ahead
since the invasion.
Bohdan Fomin, a 30-year-old soldier from Mariupol, a city in Ukraine’s
southeast, grips a handwritten sign demanding better treatment for troops. His
hometown, once a thriving port of half a million people, was pulverized in 2022
and remains under Russian occupation — the reason he believes Ukraine must
resist to the end, without concessions.
“If Ukraine is forced to cede territory, I will have no home to return to,” he
says. “We chose our future more than 10 years ago, here, at Maidan. For us, it’s
like getting back home — to Europe. Without that, I cannot imagine Ukraine.”
Fomin is adamant the gathering is not against President Zelenskyy’s government.
“Protests have been a part of our culture since our independence,” he says,
nodding at the “dialog police” who watch quietly from the edges, tasked with
speaking to the demonstrators rather than dispersing them. It’s a detail he
cites as proof this is not a rebellion against the state.
Later that evening, Olena Herasymiuk joins the crowd. The 34-year-old poet’s
works have become touchstones of the country’s wartime literature, and she has
spent much of her adult life circling back to this square.
Family members and loved ones of fallen Ukrainian soldiers pay tribute to their
memory at Independence Square on Sept. 27, 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine. | Danylo
Dubchak/Frontliner/Getty Images
As a student in 2014, she stood there when the first sharp cracks rang out. At
first she didn’t realize they were sniper bullets slicing past her head. Then
she saw people falling, injured and dead. That moment, she says, never left her.
It pushed her into writing poetry as testimony and into a volunteer battalion
where she evacuated the wounded from battlefields.
“Ukrainians are Europeans in every sense,” she says. “We don’t want to be
slaves. We are free, liberal and open — and we have only one path, the European
path.”
She has buried friends and written poems about them. One classmate, Daria, went
to war as a drone engineer and never came back.
To keep going, she clings to small rituals. “Every morning, I wake up, and my
first thought is about the dead,” she says. “That’s why I make myself have a
coffee. It’s a reminder of how to stay alive, how to stay human. Without that, I
would go crazy.”
‘IF THEY ARE ERASED, EUROPE LOSES THEM TOO’
The insistence on Ukraine’s being central to the story of Europe spills from the
street and into the country’s culture and politics.
Across town from Maidan Square, in a bustling bar with live music, Lina
Romanukha scrolls through her Instagram profile. It’s filled with collages cut
from decade-old magazines and sketches drawn over the past three years. Both,
she says, help her cope with the experience of war.
When Russian troops advanced on Kyiv in February 2022, she fled to her parents’
house in western Ukraine. Within weeks she returned to the capital, convinced
she could be more useful here.
Now 41, the curator and artist describes nights under drone attacks as “Russian
roulette.” At first she went to shelters; now she doesn’t bother. “You can’t
live like that forever. If it comes to my building, it comes,” she says.
Her answer to that fatalism: culture. Romanukha curated an exhibition that
digitizes Ukraine’s monuments — not only those in Kyiv or Lviv, but also in
Crimea, Donbas and other territories now under Russian control.
In the halls of Kyiv’s Pechersk Lavra — the centuries-old monastery that has
itself survived wars and sieges — visitors use virtual reality to step into
reconstructions of the ancient Greek city of Chersonesus in Sevastopol, wander
through the Khan Palace in Bakhchysarai, or stand before the Mariupol drama
theater where hundreds were killed in 2022. Each reconstruction is paired with
music by Ukrainian composers: It’s Romanukha’s way of insisting culture survives
even if the stone and marble do not.
But for Romanukha, the project is not just about the past. It’s a way of telling
Europeans that Ukraine’s heritage is also theirs, that their future belongs
together. The very act of placing occupied sites on the map reads like a form of
defiance. Russia may hold the land, but the memory — and the claim to Europe —
remains Ukrainian. “These monuments are part of European civilization,” Lina
says. “If they are erased, Europe loses them too.”
For all the uncertainty about her country’s future, she calls herself a “blind
optimist.” She dreams of a Ukraine restored to its 1991 borders, rebuilt with EU
and international help.
“It’s a dream,” she admits, but one she refuses to let go of.
STRASBOURG — The head of the EU’s biggest political family has had a tough week
keeping his party under control, with internal divisions on display on
everything from climate goals to veggie burgers.
On the day that Ursula von der Leyen faces two votes of no-confidence that could
topple her and her Commission, Manfred Weber, leader of the European People’s
Party of which von der Leyen is a member, is also under pressure.
Weber is still racking up wins — such as slashing green rules for businesses and
pushing the Commission toward a tougher stance on migration — but efforts to
satisfy all of his allies (actual and potential) are taking their toll, and this
was on full display at the European Parliament plenary session in Strasbourg.
A spokesperson for Manfred Weber did not reply to a request for comment for this
article.
In the span of just a few days, the EPP leader was undermined by his colleagues
on key green legislation, publicly distanced himself from a food-labeling
proposal pushed by parts of his party, and faced internal rebellion over the
EU’s 2040 climate targets.
During a tense internal EPP meeting on Wednesday, national delegations from
France, Poland, Spain and Italy clashed with Weber and his German allies over
how far to water down the EU’s 2040 emissions reduction target, according to two
EPP officials who were briefed on the discussions.
The 2040 target is a key part of von der Leyen’s green agenda, which the Germans
support, albeit with a slightly lower target than the 90 percent originally
proposed by the Commission. The other delegations either want to scrap the
target altogether or drastically reduce it.
Faced with a deadlock, the internal deliberations have been frozen until
national EU leaders give their input at a European Council meeting in Brussels
on Oct. 23, according to the two officials.
Meanwhile, French EPP lawmakers scored a win in the European Parliament by
pushing through a ban on the use of meat-related terms such as “burger,”
“steak,” or “sausage” for plant-based and lab-grown products — triggering fury
from Greens, liberals and Socialists.
But instead of rallying behind the move, Weber distanced itself from it, going
as far as to ridicule it.
“That’s not at all a priority,” he said in a Tuesday press conference. “I think
we have really other things to do … people are not stupid when they go to the
supermarket.”
The week’s biggest blow came ahead of high-stakes talks on Wednesday morning
with Socialist leader Iratxe García and Renew chief Valérie Hayer on slashing
green corporate reporting rules.
Just before the meeting, Jörgen Warborn, the EPP’s lead negotiator on the issue,
sent the other political groups an email, via the Legal Affairs Committee
secretariat, which indicated that the EPP had decided to ditch the center left
and instead team up with the far right to pass an aggressive simplification
package to water down the green business requirements.
While this is a classic political tactic to apply pressure, the move was not
approved by Weber. Asked by POLITICO if he coordinated the move with the EPP
boss, Warborn said: “No, it was my decision.”
The Socialists were furious and the Weber meeting with García and Hayer ended in
acrimony and no agreement.
“While negotiations at leaders’ level were happening, the EPP was presenting
compromises with the far right. This is unacceptable and shows the
contradictions between EPP at the [European Parliament] and [the] Berlaymont,”
said Andrea Macerias, García’s spokesperson.
Warborn’s move worked, however: The Socialists accepted the EPP’s position a few
hours later.
Weber is also facing mounting pressure over negotiations on the EU’s long-term
budget, as some sections of the EPP are threatening to torpedo a key part of von
der Leyen’s plans. The disagreement focuses on pooling agriculture subsidies and
funds for Europe’s poorest regions into single pots controlled by national
capitals, which critics say would mean less money for farmers and less oversight
from local authorities.
Negotiations between the EPP commissioners in charge of the file and EPP MEPs
this week, steered by Weber in an attempt to unify the party, have failed to
produce a compromise.
Weber, trying to bridge the divide within his party, described this week’s
disagreements as “discussing the issues among friends.”
STRASBOURG — Ursula von der Leyen celebrated her birthday in the European
Parliament in Strasbourg — and was given a sweet treat by a Green MEP.
Von der Leyen turned 67 on Wednesday and received a gift bag from Terry Reintke,
a German MEP who is co-leader of the Greens in the Parliament.
Asked what was in the bag, a spokesperson for Reintke said: “Terry offered her
chocolate, and the hope is that the serotonins and dopamines will translate into
good Green legislation in return.”
It is unclear if the chocolate was made by the British confectionery brand
Terry’s, but it was Terry herself who bought it.
The Greens are not always big fans of von der Leyen, and are frustrated at
seeing the Commission’s simplification agenda water down climate and
environmental policies.
The Parliament will on Thursday vote on two motions of no-confidence in von der
Leyen’s leadership, put forward by far-right and far-left groups. If she loses
(which is extremely unlikely), her Commission would fall, which would be a very
bad belated birthday gift.
In a debate on those motions on Monday, Reintke said the Greens aren’t happy
with von der Leyen’s performance — but they know well that it could be a lot
worse.
In the midst of geopolitical turmoil, she said, “do we really, in this crucial
moment, want an institutional crisis?”
The Greens have plenty of complaints, from the “late reaction” to suffering in
Gaza to climate initiatives being thrown “under the omnibus,” Reintke said. Yet,
given that Parliament majorities won’t change, and conditions in the Council are
“even worse,” there’s no reason to expect improvement from firing the
Commission.
Jerry Greenfield, co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s, announced his resignation after
nearly 50 years at the ice cream-maker, as a rift with parent company Unilever
deepened over its stance on Israel and Gaza.
“It’s with a broken heart that I’ve decided I can no longer, in good conscience,
and after 47 years, remain an employee of Ben & Jerry’s. I am resigning from the
company Ben and I started back in 1978. This is one of the hardest and most
painful decisions I’ve ever made,” Greenfield said in a letter shared by
co-founder Ben Cohen on Wednesday.
“His legacy deserves to be true to our values, not silenced by Magnum Global,”
Cohen added.
Greenfield’s departure comes as the company presses for independence ahead of
Unilever’s planned listing of its global ice cream business in November, amid
mounting friction over Ben & Jerry’s outspoken stance against Israel over its
war in Gaza and its position toward Palestinians in the West Bank.
The dispute stems from Ben & Jerry’s decision in 2021 to stop selling products
in Israeli settlements, a move Unilever opposed.
Despite a merger agreement designed to safeguard the brand’s activism,
Greenfield claimed the company’s independence had eroded. “It’s profoundly
disappointing to come to the conclusion that that independence, the very basis
of our sale to Unilever, is gone,” he said in his resignation letter.
A spokesperson for The Magnum Ice Cream Company, Unilever’s ice cream unit, said
the company was “grateful” for Greenfield’s contributions but added that it had
made efforts to engage both founders on preserving Ben & Jerry’s “values-based
positions in the world.”
Ben & Jerry’s, founded in 1978 in Burlington, Vermont, has long championed
causes from LGBTQ+ rights to fighting against climate change.
Co-founder Cohen has been a polarizing figure for years due to his outspoken
activism, in recent years after backing controversial critiques of U.S. foreign
policy in Ukraine.