Soaring jet kerosene prices and airspace closures caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran are creating growing headaches for European airlines. The EU imports half of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf, whose main exit point is the Hormuz Strait that’s currently blocked by Iran’s threat to hit any vessel that tries to pass it. As a result, jet fuel prices jumped to a 28-month high of $1,001.50 per ton in Europe, according to the specialized publication Argus, calling it a “record premium.” That puts airlines in a very difficult position, as they were able to recover from the Covid-era collapse of air travel thanks to cheap fuel. Presenting Lufthansa’s results for last year, the airline group’s CFO Till Streichert said on Friday that “low fuel costs had a positive effect. Our fuel costs fell by more than half a billion euro compared with the previous year.” Despite concerns over rising fuel prices, Lufthansa is confident that its fuel reserves will protect the airline from higher costs. But if gridlock at sea lasts, it could dry up the supply of kerosene while sending prices even higher. Fuel worries come on top of concerns that the war will also shut flight paths between Europe and Asia. The EU Aviation Safety Agency on Friday extended its request for airlines to avoid the airspace of 11 countries in the Gulf region including crucial air hubs like Dubai, Qatar and Kuwait as well as Iran, Iraq and part of Saudi Arabia. The original recommendation — issued on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran — is now valid until March 11. “All-altitude capable air-defence systems, cruise and ballistic missiles and the use of air assets … make the entire affected airspace vulnerable to spill-over risks, misidentification, miscalculation and failure of interception procedures,” the EASA bulletin said. That recommendation leaves only a very narrow path for many airlines to fly between Europe and Asia — forcing them along Turkey’s northern Black Sea coast, then over Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. European carriers can’t fly over war-torn Ukraine and they’ve also been barred from Russian airspace since Moscow invaded Ukraine four years ago. However, Turkish, Chinese and other Asian competitors can still overfly Russia, creating growing competition problems for EU carriers. The Ukraine war closures already forced airline groups such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM to reroute their long-haul flights to and from Asia — increasing fuel and staffing costs. Now, even that narrow passage across Azerbaijan is at risk after the country was reportedly targeted by a drone strike near the Iranian border. In response, the Baku government closed the southern half of the country’s airspace but left the rest available to airlines. “We continue to monitor closely the overall risk and threat situation in the region and its impact on the safety of airspace, including this event,” said EASA spokesperson Janet Northcote after an attack that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called an “act of terror” from Tehran.  The Iranian government denied responsibility for the strike.

LONDON — Keir Starmer thought he had mastered the special relationship. Donald Trump’s Iran gambit is putting that assertion to the test. Starmer has been trying to keep his distance, repeatedly stressing the U.K. “played no role” in the joint U.S.-Israeli operation that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — though he conceded late Sunday the U.S. will be allowed to use British bases for the “specific and limited defensive purpose” of hitting missile storage depots and launchers as Iran escalated its retaliatory attacks. “We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran and we will not join offensive action now,” Starmer said in a recorded message published on X Sunday night. The shift came after escalating threats to British troops and citizens from missile and drone attacks. Just hours after the release of Starmer’s Sunday statement, the Ministry of Defence told the Daily Mail that it was responding to a suspected drone attack on a key British airbase in Limassol, Cyprus, at midnight local time. There were no casualties. The government is also scrambling to help tens of thousands of Britons stranded in Gulf states amid airspace closures across the Middle East. Commercial interests are also at risk: A Gibraltar-flagged oil tanker was struck Sunday by “an unknown projectile” in the Strait of Hormuz near the United Arab Emirates, though the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it was able to proceed after the resulting fire was extinguished. But Starmer’s Middle East balancing act — neither condemning nor celebrating Trump’s action, helping out but not joining in — risks pleasing no one. “The Americans would have expected the U.K. to take this position,” former Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Peter Ricketts told POLITICO. “The American system, the Pentagon and State Department, won’t have been surprised. This is a long-standing British position.” That didn’t stop Trump ally Lindsey Graham from immediately branding the U.K.’s initial understated joint response with France and Germany in the immediate wake of the strikes early Saturday “pathetic.” At home, Starmer’s ruling Labour Party, which was beaten into third place by parties to its left and right in a by-election last week, is coming under pressure to take a stand against Trump from the victors of that election, the left-wing populist Green Party — which has already declared the U.S. and Israeli strikes illegal.  “It’s quite astounding that we have a prime minister that seems to be singularly incapable of standing up to Donald Trump and letting the U.K. stand on its own two feet,” Green Party Leader Zack Polanski said in a BBC interview earlier Sunday.   It all amounts to fresh political danger for Starmer, who already faced deep questions about his ongoing leadership ahead of crucial midterm local elections in May, and for the rest of his Labour allies. WHO OWNS IT U.K. Defence Secretary John Healey was on the media rounds Sunday, but declined to answer questions about the legality of the U.S. attacks on Iran. “That is for the U.S. to set out and explain; it’s not for me,” he said.   Green Party Leader Zack Polanski listens to new MP Hannah Spencer after her victory in the Gordon and Denton by-election. Commenting on the US-Israeli strikes, Polanski said it’s the “the law of the jungle” and “an end to international law.” | Christopher Furlon/Getty Images Polanski, still riding high from last week’s blowout victory for his party, quickly seized on Healey’s equivocation. It’s the “law of the jungle” and “an end to international law,” Polanski declared Sunday. It is a criticism that will particularly sting Starmer — Britain’s former chief prosecutor. A summary of the U.K. government’s legal position, published Sunday night, stressed Britain would be solely focused on ending the threat of air and missile attacks, and allowing U.S. to use U.K. bases did not signal involvement in the broader conflict. Polanski also pointed back at Labour’s willingness to join U.S. President George W. Bush’s war in Iraq more than two decades ago, warning against any similar move now. “I don’t think the British people want to see another war in that region,” Polanski said. Starmer acknowledged the “mistakes of Iraq” in his Downing Street statement Sunday, and insisted the U.K. had “learned those lessons.” NO, BACK THE AMERICANS  Starmer’s opponents on his right came in with a different line of attack.  Earlier Sunday, leaders of the U.K.’s main right-wing parties said Britain should allow the U.S. to operate from its bases when striking Iran, amid reports Starmer had blocked their use. Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage, a close ally of Donald Trump, said in a social media post that Starmer “needs to change his mind on the use of our military bases and back the Americans in this vital fight.”  Conservative Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel endorsed the U.S. actions during a Sunday appearance on Sky and questioned why Starmer has “not actually worked with our American allies to be much more proactive.” ALREADY COUNTED OUT  Starmer remains keen to stress the U.K. is not involved in strikes on Iran. Former Conservative Middle East Minister Alistair Burt said that the U.S. and Israel would have expected Britain to take a step back in their planning.  “If you consider the nature of the individuals — [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and Trump — I suspect they would just have known that the United Kingdom would not be in a position to support unless there was some legal backing for it,” Burt said. Calvin Bailey, a Labour MP and member of the U.K. parliament’s Defence Committee, said the U.S. clearly didn’t need Britain’s help in executing its operation against Iran, and said narrative being pushed by Labour’s political opponents — “Are you with Trump or are you not?” — should be resisted. Calvin Bailey, a Labour MP and member of the U.K. parliament’s Defence Committee, said the narrative being pushed by Labour’s political opponents should be resisted. | Nicola Tree/Getty Images “If we allow people to base these things into simple us-and-them kind of questions and decisions, then they become vehicles for populism,” he said.   LOGISTICAL DANGER  But now Starmer faces the reality of what is happening in the Middle East, and how to respond. The immediate hurdle — and danger — for Starmer’s government will be helping stranded British nationals. More than 76,000 Brits have made themselves known via the U.K. government’s Register Your Presence hub — a number that is almost certain to rise in the days ahead. And senior Labour figures see merit in Britain playing a leading role in bringing stability to Iran. “It takes great strength to try to stand in the way and call for diplomatic solutions when so many have their blood up and are beating their chests on the path to all-out war, but it must be done,” said Emily Thornberry, who chairs the Commons’ Foreign Affairs Committee, adding that it won’t be “glamorous” and “the armchair generals will be furious.”  Ricketts says Britain’s lack of involvement in the immediate strikes could give London more leverage in the aftermath of the conflict.   “If the U.K. can be in the center of the post-conflict activity, then perhaps there shouldn’t be too much damage from the position we took in the actual strikes,” he said. With those tricky local council elections looming in May, Starmer may not have the luxury of a long game.

Iran launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. military bases across the Persian Gulf region, as well as against Israel, after U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran earlier Saturday. Missiles and drones hit the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain and other American bases in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement reported by the Iranian news agency IRNA. It also confirmed a wave of drones and missiles targeting Israel. The statement said the strikes were “in response to the American-Zionist aggression on Iranian soil.”  A U.S. official told POLITICO that air defenses intercepted Iranian missiles aimed at American bases including Al Udeied in Qatar, the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain, Ali Salem in Kuwait and Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said that they intercepted Iranian missiles. The UAE saw one casualty from fallen debris, its defense ministry said. Kuwait said its army repelled Iran’s attack and that it reserves the right to respond to Iran’s aggression in “a manner commensurate with the scale and nature of this violation and in accordance with international law.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola condemned the Iranian counterattacks, calling Tehran’s strikes on U.S. bases in Gulf countries “inexcusable and unjustifiable.” “The regime in Iran must refrain from any further escalation in any targeting of the Gulf States, Israel or European or United States nationals,” she said in a post on X. “The events unfolding in Iran must not lead to a spiral of escalation that could threaten the Middle East, Europe and beyond,” Metsola said. Israel Defense Forces have said that sirens have been activated in various parts of the country, including Tel Aviv. Most major airlines have cancelled flights to the region citing airspace closures. Paul McLeary contributed reporting to this article.

Lufthansa announced today it expects a strike announced “at short notice” for Thursday to impact its flight schedule. The industrial action was called by the flight attendants’ union UFO and the pilots’ union Vereinigung Cockpit (VC), Lufthansa said. Cabin crew union UFO said the strike notice was introduced after “the management has refused to enter into negotiations with us at all” regarding working conditions and pensions. UFO members working for regional subsidiary airline Lufthansa CityLine will be affected by the airline’s announced closure; operations and staff are expected to be relocated to a new subsidiary. VC said that pilots from both Lufthansa’s passenger and cargo operations will join the 24-hour strike after “a total of seven rounds of negotiations remained without a tangible result.” “We would have liked to avoid an escalation,” said VC President Andreas Pinheiro, blaming Lufthansa for the strike. According to the German news agency DW, the strike could affect all German airports, including the major international hubs of Frankfurt and Munich. The strike could disrupt the travel plans of thousands of passengers, including those traveling to the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins Friday.

One year after the European Commission launched the Clean Industrial Deal to tackle mounting competitiveness challenges for EU industry, Neste ― the world’s leading producer of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel ― is calling for urgent action to deliver on the Commission’s promise of turning “decarbonization into a driver of growth for European industries.” POLITICO Studio spoke to Jenni Männistö, vice president, strategy, M&A and business development at Finland-based Neste, about the company’s investments in the EU, how renewable fuels can be scaled and what they offer the continent’s economic future.  POLITICO Studio: How does the scale-up of renewable fuels strengthen the EU’s competitiveness, and why should the EU prioritize this? Jenni Männistö: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen provided a clear diagnosis when she began her second term in 2024: the world is in a race to develop the technologies that will shape the global economy for decades to come as we move toward climate neutrality. This global race is still on today, and Europe must seize the economic opportunities that clean tech provides amid increasing pressure on traditional fossil markets. One in five European oil refineries has closed since 2009. Going backward and falling economically behind in the global race is not an option. The EU is seeing its competitiveness challenged in some clean tech sectors, but there are also areas where it is a leader, such as biofuels. Our story shows what is possible: Neste has grown from a regional Finnish oil refinery into the global leader in renewable fuels. Forward-looking EU and global policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have helped accelerate innovation and growth. PS: Neste is investing €2.5 billion in expanding its Rotterdam refinery to make it the world’s largest biofuels production facility. What’s needed for more investments of this scale when many businesses are delaying projects or even shutting down sites in the EU? JM: The expansion of our Rotterdam refinery is a major investment. EU refinery and chemical sectors have lacked projects of this scale in recent years. Instead, we have seen new projects cancelled or delayed, all while traditional crude oil refineries close. This is a very concerning trend. To turn the situation around and strengthen Europe’s competitiveness and energy security, we need long-term certainty and a strong business case for early movers. And EU businesses should, of course, compete on a level playing field with imports. via Neste PS: Long-term certainty is a common request from businesses, but what’s specifically needed? JM: The first ingredient is long-term certainty about Europe’s commitment to climate neutrality and emissions reduction. The EU’s 2040 climate targets set a clear direction, and their adoption means we can now focus on the policies that get us there. The second ingredient is long-term regulatory certainty. We have a clear framework in place for SAF, for which the ReFuelEU Regulation sets targets until 2050. These targets must remain in place. > We are calling for new, strong enabling conditions for airlines to uplift SAF > beyond the EU minimum SAF targets, for instance by increasing support under > the Emission Trading System.” However, other areas are lacking: the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive currently has no transport sector target after 2030. Moreover, the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, which notably includes the national decarbonization objectives for the road sector, provides no visibility beyond 2030. That is a major issue, because biofuels producers cannot make major business and investment decisions based only on one customer segment — aviation — or a short-term regulatory outlook. PS: Why is it important that the EU supports early movers who invest in solutions to reduce transport greenhouse gas emissions?   JM: We were pleased with the direction of the Clean Industrial Deal and the EU’s Competitiveness Compass at the start of 2025; it clarified that there needs to be a business case for “clean production” with “lead markets and policies to reward early movers.” These commitments would address some of the big challenges for early movers that we see at Neste. We have invested heavily in expanding SAF production capabilities, but demand is failing to pick up as expected. Once the €2.5 billion expansion of our Rotterdam refinery is completed in 2027, Neste’s SAF production capacity alone could be sufficient to meet the EU’s current 2 percent SAF mandate. Today, we are a year on from the launch of the EU’s flagship competitiveness plans at the start of 2025, but we still need new policies that translate commitments to early movers into action. That is disappointing, and 2026 must be the year when the Commission acts to turn Europe’s early SAF lead into a long-term competitive advantage. That is why we are calling for new, strong enabling conditions for airlines to uplift SAF beyond the EU minimum SAF targets, for instance by increasing support under the Emission Trading System. PS: A level playing field is a vital factor; what makes it so crucial? JM: Although Europe currently leads in the scale-up of renewable fuels, other countries and regions are supporting their domestic companies to expand production capacity. This raises major level-playing-field concerns, similar to those we have seen in many other sectors. The EU must align its trade and industrial policies, especially for newly scaling markets. For instance, the EU’s SAF target is just 2 percent until 2030, and other countries and regions are only starting to roll out their own requirements for SAF use. This creates a risk that global SAF volumes end up flowing into the EU. > Renewable fuels can strengthen Europe’s energy security in today’s uncertain > geopolitical environment.” In 2025, the European Commission introduced new protective measures on biodiesel imports. In Neste’s view, there should be immediate measures to protect Europe’s biofuels industry as a whole, including SAF production, from unfair competition. The current approach falls short and endangers EU players’ competitiveness, as well as their ability to continue to invest in production capacity and future-proof innovation. PS: There’s a push to revisit and simplify some of the rules agreed during the last Commission, such as the carbon dioxide standards. How do you view this? What’s the balance between renewable fuels and electrification? JM: The approach of the Clean Industrial Deal is the right one — climate action and competitiveness must go hand in hand to deliver a growth strategy for Europe. That is why it is good that we revisit some of the EU rules with these twin objectives in mind. Neste is leading the way with its investment in the Netherlands; we believe that the EU industry can still lead in renewable fuels if we are bold. We need to ask how we can implement policies that cut greenhouse gas emissions and build on Europe’s competitive strengths. With this in mind, it is a step in the right direction to recognize the role of renewable fuels in the legislation on CO2 standards, but their actual and immediate greenhouse gas contribution needs to be better reflected. Electrification plays a role, especially in light-duty vehicles and urban transport, but it is not a silver bullet for the transport sector as a whole. Once EU rules enable a range of low greenhouse gas emission options, users can choose the solutions that best fit their operational needs. PS: There’s also the issue of EU autonomy and energy in an increasingly volatile world. What’s the role of renewable fuels in that context? JM: Renewable fuels can strengthen Europe’s energy security in today’s uncertain geopolitical environment. A key priority is diversifying supply; expanding European-produced renewable fuels can reduce our reliance on volatile global markets. In 2023, which is the most recent data available, the EU’s import dependency for oil was nearly 95 percent, underscoring the need to de-risk and diversify. The aim is not to be an island ― EU companies will need global supply chains and partners. Scaling up renewable fuels brings opportunities for new partnerships, such as the pledge by several major countries at COP30 to boost biofuels significantly by 2035. Disclaimer POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT * The sponsor is Neste * The advertisement is linked to is linked to the ReFuelEU and the Clean Industrial Deal. More information here.

BRUSSELS — Senior European Commission officials hardly ever get the sack. On Thursday, one did. That was the twist in a tale that up until that moment had been classically Brussels. The protagonist: A little-known bureaucrat who had spent two decades working in the EU civil service. The allegations: Taking expensive gifts that aroused suspicions over conflicts of interest. “After nearly 22 years at the Commission, I am obviously disappointed,” Henrik Hololei told POLITICO only hours after he was informed of the decision. “But I’m happy that this long process has finally come to a conclusion.” While commissioners, the EU’s 27 political appointees, have been known to fall on their swords, there are few precedents for the dismissal of such a high-ranking civil servant, two senior officials familiar with the inner workings of the Commission said. Neither of the officials, who have several decades of EU experience between them, could remember any previous examples. Like other people interviewed for this article, they were granted anonymity so they could speak freely about Hololei and his downfall. The “long process” Hololei described totaled three years. It was in 2023 that POLITICO first revealed that the Estonian, who was then the EU’s top transport official, had accepted free flights from Qatar at the same time as negotiating a transport deal with the Gulf state that was beneficial to the country’s airline.   It couldn’t have come at a more inauspicious time. The initial reports emerged just a few months after the so-called Qatargate corruption scandal in the European Parliament, named after one of the countries linked to allegedly offering cash and gifts in return for favors. Hololei was not involved in that affair, but it added fuel to the argument from politicians and transparency campaigners that the EU needed to clean up its act. He resigned from his job within a month but didn’t leave the Commission. Soon after, he became special adviser in its international partnership division. The following year, French newspaper Libération reported additional allegations, including that he exchanged confidential details of the Qatar aviation deal in return for gifts for himself and others, including stays in a five-star hotel in Doha. This led to a probe by the EU’s Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), which in turn led to the Commission’s investigation. On Thursday, the Commission announced that a senior official had breached the EU institution’s rules. These concerned conflicts of interest, gift acceptance and disclosures, according to three officials with knowledge of the investigation. They later confirmed the person in question was Hololei. ‘A LEGEND’ By his own admission, Hololei is a colorful character. Belying the clichéd image of a faceless bureaucrat, he’s known to do business over a drink or two. Michael O’Leary, the outspoken CEO of Irish airline Ryanair, who shared the occasional tipple with him, told POLITICO in 2023 that Hololei was “terrific.” His colleagues are just as glowing. On Thursday, a lower-ranking official who worked with him at the Commission described him as a “legend,” while a former transport lobbyist recalled seeing selfies of him holding up beers with industry representatives. “The feeling is they’re making an example of him,” said a person who works in the aviation field and met him during the course of his work. “He was undoubtedly passionate and determined to make EU transport better. He was a guy who just enjoyed the position he had. He was a people person.” Hololei talks to Czech Transport Minister Martin Kupka at the European Transport Ministerial Meeting in Prague in 2022. Colleagues and industry figures might mourn the departure of a gregarious, engaging figure, | Martin Divisek/EPA What ultimately led to his dismissal was an investigation by IDOC, the Commission’s internal disciplinary body, the result of which is not public.  IDOC’s conclusions were shared with a disciplinary committee made up of staffers who have equal or superior rank to Hololei — a relatively small pool given his seniority. Following a series of interviews with Hololei, the committee sent its recommendation to the College of Commissioners for a final vote. That decision was taken in the past few days.  ‘LONG OVERDUE’ While colleagues and those in the industry might mourn the departure of a gregarious, engaging figure, European propriety campaigners are less sympathetic. “It’s almost three years to the day since revelations of Mr. Hololei’s impropriety broke,” said Shari Hinds, senior policy officer at Transparency International, an accountability-focused NGO. “Though long overdue, it is encouraging that the European Commission finally appears to be dealing out consequences proportionate to the gravity of these ethics violations.” Hololei, 55, who had taken a pay cut when he moved to the role of hors classe adviser from DG MOVE, as the transport department is known, will receive his pension from the Commission when he reaches retirement age. He has three months to lodge a complaint against the decision with the Commission. “Good to see there is an actual reaction,” said Daniel Freund, a Green member of the European Parliament, who campaigns on issues of accountability in the EU institutions. “So far, so good.” ‘MUCH MISSED’ A decade in Estonian politics — where he largely focused on European affairs — preceded his time at the Commission, starting in the cabinet of then-Estonian Commissioner Siim Kallas, the father of current EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, before moving into transport. It was in that role he became a “very much-loved boss,” according to the person who worked with him. “Even now he is still very much missed in DG MOVE. He was a good person to be around.” In the comments Hololei gave to POLITICO on Thursday afternoon, he was as gracious as so often described by those who know him. But in the end, the personality traits that endeared him to so many he worked with, in the Commission and in industry, weren’t enough to save his job.

BRUSSELS — Powerful political allies helped automakers force the EU to water down climate laws for cars — and now the aviation sector is borrowing those tactics. Their big target is getting the EU to dilute its mandate forcing airlines to use increasing amounts of cleaner jet fuels, alternatives to kerosene that are also much more expensive and harder to source. Aviation is emerging as the next crucial stress test for the EU’s climate agenda, as key leaders push to do whatever it takes to help struggling European businesses. With industry and allied governments pressing for relief from costly green rules, the fight will show how far Brussels is willing to go — and what it is willing to give up — in pursuit of its climate goals. “I will make a bet today that what happened to the car regulation will happen to the SAF [Sustainable Aviation Fuels] regulation in Europe,” French energy giant TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné predicted at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this month. Carmakers provide a model on how to get the EU to backtrack. The bloc mandated that no CO2-emitting cars could be sold from 2035, essentially killing the combustion engine and replacing it with batteries (possibly with a minor role for hydrogen). But many carmakers — allied with countries like Germany, Italy and automaking nations in Central Europe — pushed back, arguing that the 2035 mandate would destroy the car sector just as it is battling U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, sluggish demand and a rising threat from Chinese competitors. “I will make a bet today that what happened to the car regulation will happen to the SAF [Sustainable Aviation Fuels] regulation in Europe,” Patrick Pouyanné said. | Ludovic Marin/ AFP via Getty Images In the end, the European Commission gave way and watered down the 2035 mandate, which will now only aim to cut CO2 emissions by 90 percent. AVIATION DEMANDS The aviation sector has a similar list of issues with the EU. It is taking aim at a host of other climate policies, such as including aviation in the bloc’s cap-and-trade Emissions Trading System and intervening on non-CO2 impacts of airplanes like contrails — the ice clouds produced by airplanes that have an effect on global warming. Brussels introduced several regulations over the last 15 years to address the growing climate impact of air transport, which accounts for about 3 percent of global CO2 emissions. Those policies include the obligation to use sustainable aviation fuels, to put a price on carbon emissions and to take action on non-CO2 emissions. Each of these green initiatives is now under attack. The ReFuelEU regulation requires all airlines to use SAF for at least 2 percent of their fuel mix starting this year. That mandate rises to 6 percent from 2030, 20 percent from 2035 and 70 percent by 2050. “Today, all airline companies are fighting even the 6 percent … which is easy to reach to be honest,” Pouyanné said, but then warned, “20 percent five years after makes zero sense.” He is echoed by CEOs like Ryanair’s combative Michael O’Leary, who called the SAF mandate “nonsense.” “It is all gradually dying a death, which is what it deserves to do,” O’Leary said last year. “We have just about met our 2 percent mandate. There is no possibility of meeting 6 percent by 2030; 10 percent, not a hope in hell. We’re not going to get to net zero by 2050.” Brussels-based airline lobbies are not calling for the SAF mandate to be killed, rather they are demanding a book-and-claim system. Under such a scheme, airlines could claim carbon credits for a certain amount of SAF, even if they don’t use it in their own aircraft. They would buy it at an airport where it’s available and then let other airlines use it. That would make it easier for airlines to meet the SAF mandate even if the fuel is not easily available. However, so far the Commission is opposed. LOBBYING BATTLE The car coalition only worked because industry allied with countries, and there are signs of that happening with aviation. The sector’s lobbying effort to slash the EU carbon pricing could find an ally in the new Italo-German team-up to promote competitiveness. The German government last year announced a plan to cut national aviation taxes — with the call made during the COP30 global climate conference, something that angered the German Greens. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz attend the Italy-Germany Intergovernmental Summit at Villa Doria Pamphilj. | Vincenzo Nuzzolese/LightRocket via Getty Images Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Friday that she and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wanted to start “a decisive change of pace … in terms of the competitiveness of our businesses.” “A certain ideological vision of the green transition has ended up bringing our industries to their knees, creating new dangerous strategic dependencies for Europe without, however, having any real impact on the global protection of the environment and nature,” she added. Her far-right coalition ally, Italian Transport Minister Matteo Salvini, has called the ETS and taxes on maritime transport and air transport “economic suicide” that “must be dismantled piece by piece.” COMMISSION SAYS NO As with the 2035 policy for cars, the European Commission is strongly defending its policy against those attacks. Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the transport commissioner, stressed the EU’s “firm commitment” to stick with aviation decarbonization policies. “Investment decisions and construction must start by 2027, or we will miss the 2030 targets. It is as simple as that,” the commissioner said in November when announcing the bloc’s new plans to boost investment into sustainable aviation and maritime fuels. Climate campaigners fought hard against the car sector’s efforts to gut 2035, and now they’re gearing up for another battle over aviation targets. “The airlines’ whining comes as no surprise — yet it is disappointing to see airlines come after such a fundamental piece of EU legislation,” said Marte van der Graaf, aviation policy officer at green NGO Transport & Environment. She was incensed about efforts to dodge the high prices set by the EU’s ETS in favor of the U.N.’s cheaper CORSIA emissions reduction scheme. Airline lobbyA4E said its members paid €2.3 billion for ETS permits last year. “By 2030, [the ETS cost] should rise up to €5 billion because the free allowances are phased out,” said Monika Rybakowska, the lobby’s policy director.  A recent study by the think tank InfluenceMap found that airlines are working to increase their impact on policymakers by aligning their positions on ETS. T&E also took aim at a recent position paper by A4E that asked the EU to postpone measures to curb non-CO2 pollution — such as nitrogen oxides and soot particles that, along with water vapor, contribute to contrails. The A4E paper said that “the scientific foundation for regulating non-CO2 effects remains insufficient” and “introducing financial liability risks misdirecting resources.” This is “an outdated excuse,” responded T&E, noting that the climate impact of contrails has been known for over 20 years.

BRUSSELS — After decades spent lambasting European politicians, Michael O’Leary is now targeting Donald Trump and Elon Musk. In less than a week, the outspoken Ryanair boss slammed both the U.S. president and his on-again, off-again supporter Musk. The latter hit back on social media, launching a feud and threatening to buy the Irish airline just to fire O’Leary, a proposal the airline CEO called “Twitshit.” Everyone involved is a seasoned infotainment warrior — they’ve all used outrageous attacks and language to further their financial and political goals. But this fight is putting O’Leary into a different league; his targets are a lot richer and more powerful than his normal punching bags of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, officials from Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium or UK Reform leader Nigel Farage. After telling POLITICO that Trump was “a liar” and taking aim at the U.S. president’s foreign policy and tariffs he said were harming business, O’Leary told Irish radio that Musk was “an idiot” in response to the world’s richest man calling him “misinformed” about the cost of installing Starlink systems on its fleet. Ryanair has publicly ruled out installing Starlink across its more than 600 Boeing 737s, arguing the external antennas would increase drag and fuel consumption. O’Leary’s keenness to scrap with Trump and Musk contrasts sharply with the approach taken by most of his fellow CEOs, who often balk at crossing the powerful. But insulting politicians and rivals is part of O’Leary’s DNA. He’s also insulated from blowback because his airline doesn’t fly to the U.S.; because it’s one of Boeing’s largest customers; and because Ryanair is protected against a hostile Musk acquisition by EU rules mandating that airlines have to be majority-owned by EU shareholders. The online scuffle escalated quickly, with Musk calling O’Leary “a retarded twat” and O’Leary telling Musk on Wednesday “to join the back of a very, very, very, very long queue of people who already think I’m a ‘retarded twat,’ including my four teenage children.” The airline said it was “launching a Great Idiots seat sale especially for Elon and any other idiots.” So far, Trump hasn’t responded to needling from O’Leary. But the dissing contest is more than a casual brawl among tycoons. It reflects what O’Leary has been doing for a long time in Europe: offending anyone who crosses his path, getting public attention and selling more tickets. After days of mutual insults between the flamboyant airline chief and his quasi-equivalent in the space industry with come-and-go ties to the White House, O’Leary offered Musk “a free ride air ticket, to thank him for the wonderful boost in publicity which has seen our bookings rise significantly.” “They’re up about 2 or 3 percent in the last five days,” he added at a press conference in Dublin. The company’s shares were also up over 2 percent on Wednesday. “O’Leary’s complaint about Starlink was an absolutely classic Michael O’Leary complaint: operationally driven, cost-based, almost certainly technically correct, quite probably an attempt to negotiate the price down by Musk,” said Andrew Charlton, managing director of the Aviation Advocacy consultancy. O’Leary confirmed on Wednesday that he had been in talks for over a year with Starlink and its rivals Amazon and Vodafone to provide Wi-Fi on Ryanair planes at no extra cost to passengers. This is just the latest cost-cutting crusade taken by the Irish businessman, who spent the first weeks of the new year threatening to slash flights to and from Belgium over a ticket tax increase of less than €10. “He’s the Trump of aviation, the same kind of idiot,” said Toto Bongiorno, a former union leader from Belgium’s now-defunct flag carrier, Sabena. “He’s the guy who once said he was going to allow standing seats on planes. He’s the one who said people would have to pay to use the [onboard] toilets at some point,” Bongiorno told the Belgian TV channel LN24. “He invented a different way of doing aviation.” CURSING DOESN’T COST In a market previously dominated by flag carriers that offered larger seats and free luggage, drinks and snacks — but also charged higher prices and occasionally received state aid from governments — Ryanair and other low-cost European airlines, such as easyJet and Wizz Air, have gained market share thanks to cheaper airfares and minimal extras. However, O’Leary built Ryanair not only by slashing costs at the expense of the passenger experience; he also harangued European leaders, demanding fewer rules and lower taxes. Von der Leyen is often referred to as “Derlayed-Again” by Ryanair due to her alleged failure to guarantee the right of airlines to overfly countries affected by air traffic controller strikes. After Ryanair was fined by Spain’s Minister for Consumer Affairs Pablo Bustinduy for unfair practices, O’Leary called him “a crazy Spanish communist minister” and showed a cardboard cutout of Bustinduy dressed as a clown and wearing an apron with the words “I raise prices.” Now it’s Trump’s turn. “If Trump threatens Europe with tariffs, Europe should respond in like measure and Trump will chicken out. He generally does,” O’Leary said on Wednesday. 

A spat over in-flight Wi-Fi has spiralled into a public verbal brawl between Elon Musk and Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, pitting one of the world’s richest men against Europe’s most outspoken airline boss. The clash burst into the open after O’Leary dismissed Musk and his satellite internet business in a radio interview on Ireland’s Newstalk. Responding to Musk calling him “misinformed” over Ryanair’s refusal to install Starlink Wi-Fi, O’Leary told listeners he would “pay no attention whatsoever to Elon Musk.” “He’s an idiot — very wealthy, but still an idiot,” O’Leary said. He also described Musk’s social media platform X as a “cesspit.” Musk fired back on X, writing: “Ryanair CEO is an utter idiot. Fire him.” In a follow-up post, he accused O’Leary of getting Starlink’s fuel-burn impact wrong “by a factor of 10” and added: “Fire this imbecile.” Ryanair’s official X account also joined the fray, mocking Musk during a reported outage on his platform, replying: “perhaps you need Wi-Fi @elonmusk?” Behind the insults lies a substantive dispute about costs and aircraft performance. Ryanair has publicly ruled out installing Starlink across its more than 600 Boeing 737s, arguing the external antennas would increase drag and fuel consumption. O’Leary has said the technology would impose around a 2 percent fuel penalty and could cost the airline hundreds of millions of dollars a year, a trade-off he says makes little sense on short-haul flights where passengers are unlikely to pay for connectivity. Musk disputes those figures, pointing to airlines already flying with Starlink-equipped aircraft and arguing that fast internet will increasingly shape passenger choice.

BRUSSELS — A new EU rule mandating that a higher proportion of passengers pass through electronic identity border checks risks “wreaking significant discomfort on travelers,” warned the head of the bloc’s airport lobby. But a Commission spokesperson insisted that the electronic check system, which first went into limited use in October with a higher proportion of travelers to be checked from Friday, “has operated largely without issues.” The new Entry/Exit System is aimed at replacing passport stamps and cracking down on illegal stays in the bloc. Under the new system, travelers from third countries like the U.K. and the U.S. must register fingerprints and a facial image the first time they cross the frontier before reaching a border officer. But those extra steps are causing delays. In October, 10 percent of passengers had to use the new system; as of Friday, at least 35 percent of non-EU nationals entering the Schengen area for a short stay must use it. By April 10, the system will be fully in place. Its introduction last year caused issues at many airports, and industry worries that Friday’s step-up will cause a repeat. The EES “has resulted in border control processing times at airports increasing by up to 70 percent, with waiting times of up to three hours at peak traffic periods,” said Olivier Jankovec, director general of ACI Europe, adding that Friday’s new mandate is “sure to create even worse conditions.” Brussels Airport spokesperson Ihsane Chioua Lekhli said: “The introduction of EES has an impact on the waiting time for passengers and increases the need for sufficient staffing at border control,” adding: “Peak waiting times at arrival (entry of Belgium) can go up to three hours, and we also saw an increase of waiting times at departures.” But the Commission rejected the accusation that EES is wreaking havoc at EU airports. “Since its start, the system has operated largely without issues, even during the peak holiday period, and any initial challenges typical of new systems have been effectively addressed, moreover with it, we know who enter in the EU, when, and where,” said Markus Lammert, the European Commission’s spokesperson for internal affairs. Lamert said countries “have refuted the claim” made by ACI Europe of increased waiting times and that concerns over problems related to the new 35 percent threshold have been “disproven.” That’s in stark contrast with the view of the airport lobby, which pointed to recent problems in Portugal. Under the new system, travelers from third countries like the U.K. and the U.S. must register fingerprints and a facial image the first time they cross the frontier before reaching a border officer. | iStock “There are mounting operational issues with the EES rollout — the case in point being the suspension of the system by the Portuguese government over the holidays,” Jankovec said. In late December, the Portuguese government suspended the EES at Lisbon Humberto Delgado Airport for three months and deployed military personnel to bolster border control capabilities. ADR, which operates Rome Fiumicino Airport, is also seeing issues. “Operational conditions are proving highly complex, with a significant impact on passenger processing times at border controls,” ADR said in a written reply. Spain’s hotel industry association asked the country’s interior ministry to beef up staffing, warning of “recurring bottlenecks at border controls.” “It is unreasonable that, after a journey of several hours, tourists should face waits of an hour or more to enter the country,” said Jorge Marichal, the lobby’s president. The Spanish interior ministry said the EES is being used across the country with “no queues or significant incidents reported to date.” However, not all airports are having trouble implementing the new system. The ADP Group, which manages the two largest airports in Paris, said it has “not observed any chaos or increase in waiting times at this stage.”