BRUSSELS — Countries that have waited years to join the EU are divided over plans being drawn up in Brussels to let them become members without the customary full voting rights. Among the handful of nations in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in line to join the bloc, a split is emerging over the conditions attached to their applications. Some insist they should get the bloc’s full benefits — whereas others are happy just to be around the table. To appease concerns from existing members that a bigger EU would make it harder to take unanimous decisions, the European Commission is mulling granting new members full voting rights only after the EU has overhauled the way it functions. The push would make it more difficult for individual countries to wield their vetoes and would stop policies from being derailed. At present, new members get full voting rights straightaway, as happened when the most recent country to join the EU, Croatia, entered in 2013. Among the powers that could initially be limited is the right of new entrants to block sanctions, among other issues that currently require every EU country to be on board. Navigating around veto threats from populist governments in Hungary and Slovakia has proven time-consuming for leaders. The prospect of joining without full voting rights is drawing mixed reactions from candidate countries. Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania — which has now opened all of the so-called negotiating clusters it will have to work through — told POLITICO the measures are a “good idea” and that his country would even accept for a period of time not having a commissioner of its own in Brussels. Albania, he said, did not want to challenge the will of big founding members such as France and Germany. “At the end, they are the adults in the family who make the important decisions,” he said, adding that one advantage for smaller EU members is that if the bigger countries “fuck up,” it’s not the new members’ fault. Salome Zourabichvili, the last directly elected president of Georgia, said she had long advocated such a move in discussions with EU officials. Her role was abolished by the ruling Georgian Dream party in a move decried by Brussels, and accession talks have now ground to a halt amid warnings of democratic backsliding. “As a small country, it’s very clear our interest is to be part of a community, of a family, and be part of the programs that make up the EU, and not at all to be an equal decision-maker as countries that have been at the origin of this organization and are much more powerful,” Zourabichvili told POLITICO. “I think it’s very logical if you want to have an organization that can take decisions efficiently.” Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania said the measures are a “good idea” and that his country would even accept for a period of time not having a commissioner of its own in Brussels. | Pool photo by Yoan Valat/EPA Moldova, whose membership application is twinned with that of Ukraine, has said it wants to see the details of the proposals. “We stand ready to assume responsibilities at an early stage and would welcome the opportunity to participate in, and help shape, these discussions,” said a senior Moldovan official, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “At the same time, full membership — with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making — must remain the clear and ultimate objective.” Ukraine, which has conducted wide-ranging reforms as part of the accession process even as it faces Russia’s aggression, has been reluctant to support the idea. “If we speak about EU membership, it has to be fully-fledged,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in November. Montenegro, the candidate country most advanced on its accession path, also insists there is no need to revisit the terms under which it is granted membership, and expects to conclude the vetting process this year. “The fact is that the EU already consisted of 28 member states,” Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović told POLITICO. “And currently, we have 27 because of Brexit. So in that regard, if Montenegro becomes the 28th member state of the EU by 2028, then the answer [to whether there is a need for reforms] is no, right? … But this is definitely the question that should be answered by the EU leaders.” The plan regarding reduced voting rights was floated late last year by officials and pro-EU governments to breathe life into an expansion process that is also being blocked by Hungary and a few other capitals over fears it could bring unwanted competition for local markets or compromise security interests. Hungary has repeatedly threatened to veto Ukraine’s joining the EU. The EU’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, told POLITICO that concrete proposals will be put forward “in February or March.” She added that “a completely new element” is driving a new sense of urgency: “We have external destructive forces that would like to see us fail — they are working against our candidate countries, but we are the main target.” The plan will need to be developed in detail by the Commission before being presented to national leaders and likely discussed at future European Council summits, as well as assessed by lawyers to see how it fits in with the EU’s foundational treaties. While the candidates are deep into the reforms needed to become members of the bloc, Kos said there is still work to be done to convince existing members that sufficient safeguards will be in place. “Negotiations are a technical part; we have to consider the political part, which is the member states,” she said.

Croatian President Zoran Milanović has slammed France for selling Zagreb secondhand fighter jets while providing its rival Serbia with a brand-new fleet. “We look like fools,” he raged last week, “because the French sell new Rafales to the Serbs and used ones to us.” Zagreb finalized a government-to-government deal with Paris in 2021 to modernize its air force by purchasing a dozen Rafale fighters valued at €999 million. The final aircraft, which were procured from France’s own stocks, were delivered last April, replacing Croatia’s outdated Soviet-era MiG-21 fleet. In August 2024, Serbia signed a deal to buy 12 Rafale jets from French manufacturer Dassault Aviation fresh from the factory. That transaction has enraged the Croatian president. Croatia fought Serbia in the 1990s in the bloody wars that followed Yugoslavia’s disintegration. While relations between the two countries have improved dramatically since then, non-NATO Serbia’s close ties with Moscow are a worry to Zagreb, which joined the Atlantic alliance in 2009 and the EU in 2013. Serbia’s own EU candidacy has largely stalled, with Belgrade ditching a Western Balkans summit in Brussels last month. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos called on Serbia in November to “urgently reverse the backsliding on freedom of expression.” French Europe Deputy Minister Benjamin Haddad, who was in Zagreb on Monday to discuss defense cooperation, defended the Serbia contract, saying Croatia should be pleased Belgrade was “gradually freeing itself from dependence on Russia and strengthening its ties with Western countries.” But Milanović hit back that the deal was “implemented behind Croatia’s back and to the detriment of Croatia’s national interests,” and showed “that every country takes care of its own interests, including profits, first and foremost.” The left-wing president added that the Croatian government, led by center-right Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, had erred by not confirming “whether France would sell the same or even more advanced aircraft models to one of our neighboring countries outside NATO.” DOMESTIC SQUABBLES Croatian officials are split over whether the president was right to react the way he did. One Croatian diplomat told POLITICO that Milanović had a point and that France was wrong to sell the newer jets to Serbia after fobbing off Croatia with an older model. But a second Croatian official said the deal was a good one for Zagreb and noted that the Croatian government had signed a letter of intent in December with Paris to upgrade its Rafale jets to the latest F4 standard. “From France’s point of view, the signing of the letter of intent on December 8 in France by the minister [Catherine Vautrin] and her Croatian counterpart aims to support the partner in modernizing its Rafale fleet to the highest standard currently in service in France,” an official from the French armed forces ministry echoed. “The defense relationship with Croatia is dynamic and not set in stone in 2021.” Croatia’s defense ministry said Milanović’s remarks “show elementary ignorance of how the international arms trade works.” “Great powers — the United States of America, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, China — have been selling the same or similar weapons to countries that are in tense and even openly antagonistic relations for decades,” the ministry added. “The USA is simultaneously arming Israel and Egypt, Russia [is arming] India and Pakistan, while the West is simultaneously arming Greece and Turkey. This is the rule, not the exception.” In Croatia, the president is also the commander-in-chief of the military but shares jurisdiction over defense policy with the government, which is responsible for the budget and the day-to-day management of the armed forces. Milanović and Plenković are often at odds, a third Croatian official said, arguing the president was using the issue to hammer his political rival. DIRT-CHEAP FIGHTER JETS France has looked to strengthen defense ties with Croatia, which spends over 2 percent of its GDP on defense and is transitioning its Soviet-era military stocks to Western arms. Some of those purchases are coming from France. Plenković was in Paris in December to sign a separate deal with KNDS France for 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers and 15 Serval armored vehicles, with the equipment to be purchased with the EU’s loans-for-weapons SAFE money.  In the original fighter jet deal, Croatia bought airplanes that were being used by the French air force, meaning they were cheaper than new stock and were available quickly. At the time the decision was criticized in Paris by parliamentarians arguing France was weakening its own air force to seal export contracts. Serbia, meanwhile, reportedly paid €2.7 billion for the same number of jets, which are expected to be delivered as of 2028. China and Russia provide the vast majority of Belgrade’s weapons, with France a distant third.

Kosovo’s caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti said he intends to swiftly form a new government after preliminary results showed his party on track to comfortably win Sunday’s early parliamentary election. The ruling left-wing Self-Determination Movement won about 49 percent of the votes in an election that was seen as vital to halting a year-long political crisis and kick-starting the country’s stalled hopes of joining the European Union. The center-right opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) trailed far behind on 21 percent, while the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) secured 14 percent of the vote, authorities said after nearly all the ballots were counted. Turnout was around 44 percent. Kurti, speaking at a press conference after the preliminary results were announced, claimed the result was “the biggest victory in the history of the country” and said he would look to form a new government as soon as the results were certified and parliament constituted.  “We don’t have time to lose and must move forward together as quickly as possible,” Kurti said. His supporters cheered and chanted outside the party’s headquarters in the capital Pristina.  Kurti’s party won the most votes in a parliamentary election in February but fell short of securing an absolute majority. After months of talks failed to produce a coalition government, President Vjosa Osmani called a snap election in November — the country’s seventh parliamentary ballot since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

After nearly a year of political paralysis, Kosovo returns to the polls on Sunday in a vote that could determine if the country makes progress on its stalled path toward the European Union. A February election saw a clear winner, caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s ruling Self-Determination party, which picked up 42 percent of the vote. However, it failed to secure an absolute majority and then was unable to form a coalition with another party. Kurti’s party has pushed Kosovo into deeper isolation, as its left-wing populist approach and efforts to assert Kosovo’s sovereignty in the Serb-majority north have strained ties with both the U.S. and the EU, leading to punitive measures. A spokesperson for Kurti declined to comment for this article. None of the major opposition parties wanted to work with Self-Determination, nor did they approve of Kurti’s multiple attempts to nominate a speaker of parliament. Kurti even offered to give up his position as prime minister to assuage the opposition, but to no avail. That meant President Vjosa Osmani was forced to trigger a snap election in November, making it Kosovo’s seventh parliamentary ballot since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Ahead of Sunday’s vote, opposition parties such as the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) show no signs of changing their stance on Kurti. “LDK, PDK, and AAK see Kurti as a populist who has hampered relations with the West and sabotaged NATO membership and the EU integration process,” Haki Abazi, a parliamentary candidate for AAK, told POLITICO. Abazi was deputy prime minister under Kurti during his first term in 2019, but was later expelled from the party due to disagreements over political direction. “Kurti is seen as toxic and fragmenting,” said Abazi, adding that’s why none of the three parties will form a coalition with the Self-Determination leader. There is a possibility that all three opposition parties could form a coalition to prevent another political deadlock, with Abazi calling such a scenario “very likely.” However, MP Blerta Deliu-Kodra from PDK told POLITICO that “it remains to be seen what the numbers will be” — although she expects a government to be formed without Kurti as prime minister. PDK candidate Hajdar Beqa told POLITICO that “Kurti’s government has seriously harmed Kosovo’s European integration process,” stressing the need for a new government to “return the country on a secure path toward the EU.” However, acting deputy foreign minister and Self-Determination candidate Liza Gashi told POLITICO that during Kurti’s mandate, the ruling party “strengthened democratic institutions, improved key economic indicators, expanded social protection, and governed with integrity and stability. [Self-Determination] enters these elections with a strong governing record and broad public support.” Meanwhile, Kosovo’s application for EU membership remains “in the drawers of the European Union,” Osmani said, speaking during an EU-Western Balkans Summit last week. The country applied in 2022, but little progress has been made since. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at the summit that the EU will lift 2023 sanctions against Kosovo over tensions in the Serb-majority north and unblock over €400 million in financial aid. But if the country fails to form a government again, Kosovo risks losing access to the bloc’s €6 billion Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, as it needs to deliver reforms to unlock the funding. “Kosovo already faces an uphill battle because of five non-recognizer [EU] states, and the country cannot afford another year lost to the politicians’ inability to do what they were elected for — provide solutions, not create problems,” said Besar Gërgi, an expert in European integration at the Group for Legal and Political Studies, a Kosovo think tank. Cyprus, Slovakia, Spain, Greece and Romania do not recognize Kosovo. When asked by POLITICO what to expect from Sunday’s election, Osmani expressed confidence that it would meet “the best democratic standards,” deliver swift results and allow for the rapid formation of government institutions. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said he hopes “for a big and significant victory” for Kosovo’s largest ethnic Serb party, Serb List, expecting that it will secure seats to “represent the interests of Serbs, not Albin Kurti.” Serbia still does not recognize Kosovo and refers to the state as ‘Kosovo and Metohija,’ its former name as a Serbian province. The EU has attempted to remediate relations between Kosovo and Serbia through the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue; however, despite years of talks, the intervention has produced few concrete results. Kosovo and Serbia signed a normalization agreement in 2023, which involves de facto mutual recognition of each other’s sovereignty. “We need to normalise relations with Serbia,” said Kurti in a recent interview with AFP. “But normalising relations with a neighboring authoritarian regime that doesn’t recognize you, that also doesn’t admit to the crimes committed during the war, is quite difficult,” he added. Kurti wants Serbia to “hand over Milan Radoičić,” a former Serb List politician who plotted a terrorist attack on northern Kosovo in 2023 that resulted in the death of a Kosovo policeman. Radoičić is wanted in Kosovo but is currently in Serbia.

BRUSSELS ― For decades, Belgium has been Europe’s beating heart. That its current prime minister fought against the EU ― and won ― ushers in a dramatic new chapter for the bloc. Even though the EU agreed to send Ukraine €90 billion after 16 hours of marathon talks that ended Friday morning, this disguises yet more fracturing of European unity. Bart De Wever’s belligerence means it’s another victory for an anti-establishment leader. The plan to use frozen Russian assets to pay for the loan, for so long the only idea under consideration, is in tatters. De Wever, the Flemish nationalist whose career has been based on wanting to tear his country apart, held out for more than two months. Even as late as Thursday afternoon, many EU governments believed he’d back down. He didn’t. “He basically got everything he wanted,” one EU diplomat said after the summit broke up in the early hours of Friday morning. Based on conversations with 23 EU officials, diplomats and politicians, nearly all of whom were granted anonymity so they could describe in detail the events of recent weeks, this is the story of how he did it. BERLIN TO BRUSSELS It started during a mild night in October. That was the last time EU leaders met, and when they initially hoped they’d get a deal to take the unprecedented step of using Russian assets to give Ukraine financial support. The EU has got used to leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán throwing their weight around but, suddenly, the 54-year-old De Wever became the latest to break rank. When leaders left that gathering shame-faced and empty-handed after promising Volodymyr Zelenskyy they were ready to send Kyiv billions of euros, they swore all they needed was two more months to win the Belgian over. Instead, as more time went on, more leaders took his side. What started to emerge was a populist bloc. After near-daily meetings of EU ambassadors, dozens of phone calls, diplomacy dashes from Berlin to Brussels and amid a brutal Russian onslaught on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian targets, two rival camps were still pulling in opposite directions by the morning of the summit on Thursday.  “Is Belgium alone? Is Belgium isolated? I cannot predict what will happen,” De Wever told Belgian lawmakers before taking the shortest of trips to his capital’s EU quarter. He knew it wasn’t. The first camp of countries — by then led by Belgium with support from Italy, Bulgaria and Malta — opposed using Russia’s assets over fears of reprisals.  Instead they wanted the EU to borrow money jointly. The fact that this idea was unpalatable to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Hungary’s Russia-friendly Orbán and yet turned out to be exactly what happened, shows the scale of De Wever’s victory. “Countries that live close to Russia … found it emotionally satisfying” to try to tap Russia’s frozen assets, De Wever told reporters after the summit. But “politics is not an emotional job,” and “rationality has prevailed.” DECEMBER REDUX De Wever had been rewarded for his October stubbornness with unprecedented popularity at home and fawning attention from the EU’s big-hitters. By continuing to refuse to yield to pressure, he only made himself more popular. In early December, the man who had spent his political career denigrating the French-speaking parts of Belgium, received several minutes of rousing applause after delivering a lecture to a Francophone audience. Sixty-seven percent of Belgians polled the week of the summit said they backed his opposition to the frozen assets plan. Earlier in the month, Germany’s Merz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wined and dined De Wever in Brussels, pulling out all the stops to convince him to drop his opposition to the frozen assets plan.  The two Germans got nowhere with the carrot. So some diplomats suggested a stick. A week ago EU diplomats suggested that if Belgium didn’t come to the table on the frozen assets plan, it would be iced out of decision-making around the EU table, like Hungary has been over its rule-of-law backsliding. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa told POLITICO on Tuesday: “For Belgium, I think I don’t wish them to become a second Hungary.” But the warning did little to sway De Wever. Neither did the threat of the EU circumventing Belgium to ram through the frozen assets deal with so-called qualified majority voting. Less than 24 hours before the summit began, Belgium’s ambassador told peers during closed-door talks that “we’re going backward” on frozen assets. Yet most European leaders arrived for the high-stakes gathering still expecting it to materialize. It was still Plan A. SUMMIT DAY As they gathered in the Europa building rabbit-warren, the 27 EU leaders decided to rip up plans to discuss Ukraine funding first up and opted to leave them to the end, to give them time to convince De Wever. The real action was happening in the rarefied backrooms, where EU leaders were discreetly huddling with their peers. While his fellow leaders debated key issues such as enlargement and the bloc’s next multi-year budget, the Belgian PM and other key players, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Germany’s Merz, slipped out of the room. Merz met Meloni one-on-one to try to bring her round. De Wever’s price for backing the asset plan: unlimited financial guarantees from his fellow member countries against the €210 billion package, in case Russia sued or retaliated in some other way.  But the idea of giving Belgium a blank check was a non-starter, with countries concerned about an unlimited liability to their bottom line.  After four hours of talks there was the real prospect of no deal. The idea of using Russian assets for the loan unraveled shortly after a two-page legal document addressing Belgium’s concerns was circulated among leaders. For many leaders, it raised too many questions and went too far. Meloni quickly started picking holes in the document. French President Emmanuel Macron chimed in, followed by Luxembourg’s PM Luc Frieden. The plan was dead. With the clock ticking, leaders keen to get out of Brussels for their Christmas breaks and Ukraine waiting for certainty, talk turned to the European Commission’s Plan B for funding Ukraine: joint borrowing. In truth, such an idea had been in the air for days. Von der Leyen had opened the door to eurobonds on Wednesday morning during a speech to the European Parliament. “I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based on assets and one based on EU borrowing,” she said. The question was how the EU could get Hungary, which had ruled out eurobonds, to lift its veto. Commission officials seemed confident that it had found a way. In exchange for Orbán’s support, the Commission would spare Hungarian taxpayers from having to pay for Ukraine’s defense.   Orbán, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and Slovakia’s Robert Fico — the EU’s troika of Euroskeptic leaders — huddled for a private meeting on the sidelines of the summit before the leaders sat down to dinner. They would all get carve-outs from the joint debt scheme in the end. THE TASK AHEAD What united the other 24 EU leaders was that they agreed that failure at this December summit was not an option. Without money from the EU, Ukraine would go broke next year. Zelenskyy, who jetted into Brussels on Thursday morning seeking to focus the leaders’ minds on the task ahead, told reporters after lunch that if they failed to get a deal, Ukraine would have to drastically cut spending. That would mean fewer weapons and drones and more casualties from Russian attacks. Ultimately, the compromise deal means ― as is so often the case in EU decision-making ― pretty much every leader can sell it as a victory. But no one as much as the Belgian prime minister. The bad news for him is that in the EU’s corridors of power, that won’t be forgotten for a long time. “Bart De Wever isn’t going to be getting any favors from the Commission any time soon,” a diplomat said. “And he will likely need them.”

BRUSSELS — Thursday’s European Council is the bloc’s last chance to show it can be more than a talking shop. Facing a growing rift with the U.S., and a Ukraine that is set to run out of cash in the first half of next year, the summit will show whether the EU’s leaders can actually deliver — or if their national differences are too big to overcome. The burning question is whether the EU can convince Belgium to get on board with its plan to syphon billions in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to keep it solvent. If the EU fails it will be “severely damaged” for years to come, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned. POLITICO’s liveblog is in full flight with all the details — but here’s your cheat sheet on what to watch for. THE €210 BILLION QUESTION  After failing to reach a deal at the last European Council in October — or in the several rounds of urgent talks and behind-the-scenes wrangling that have taken place since — Thursday is the last chance for EU leaders to green-light a proposal to leverage €210 billion in Russian assets across the bloc to fund a loan to Ukraine.  Belgium’s support is crucial, as the bulk of the frozen assets lie in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, and its government fears being on the hook for substantial damages or retaliation from Moscow. Despite weeks of persuasion, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever — a Flemish right-winger with a reputation for intransigence — hasn’t budged and continues to enjoy strong domestic support. Less than 24 hours before crunch time the Belgian ambassador told peers during closed-door talks that “we’re going backward.” Italy, Bulgaria and Malta have also signaled their opposition.   This is all bad news for Ukraine, which faces a €71.7 billion budget shortfall next year and will have to start cutting public spending as of April.  COULD BELGIUM BE SIDELINED?  Some member countries, such as Germany and Latvia, have suggested making the decision to seize the assets by qualified majority voting, rather than by unanimity, effectively sidelining Belgium.   In that case, 15 out of 27 member states would need to vote in favor. But Belgian officials told POLITICO there’s no point in trying to overrule their concerns as the funds in the Euroclear depository would simply not be released.  A senior EU official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told POLITICO the whole point of Thursday’s summit is to convince Belgium to drop its opposition, even if it means meeting late into the night.  IF NOT ASSETS, THEN WHAT?   If there’s no deal on the assets then the EU will have to find another way to prop up Ukraine, which it committed to doing one way or another at the last summit in October.  On Wednesday evening Europe’s leaders were split into irreconcilable camps, at least publicly, and seemed unlikely to agree on how to fund Kyiv. But the first contours of a potential route out of the impasse — one that would have to be hashed out during hours of negotiations — are beginning to take shape, with diplomats working on a long-shot 11th-hour compromise to salvage a deal. If the EU fails it will be “severely damaged” for years to come, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned. | Nadja Wohlleben/Getty Images European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has cautiously opened the door to joint debt, backed by the EU’s next seven-year budget, as a back-up plan. “I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based on assets and one based on EU borrowing. And we will have to decide which way we want to take,” she said during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning. The key to such a plan would be carving Hungary and Slovakia — which both oppose giving further aid to Ukraine — out of the joint debt scheme, four EU diplomats told POLITICO. A deal could still be agreed at the Council among the 27 EU countries, but the ultimate arrangement would stipulate that only 25 would be involved in the funding.  ABOUT THAT PEACE DEAL   Washington shocked Ukraine and its European allies when it produced a plan to end the war that was replete with major concessions to Russia, including handing over large swathes of Ukrainian territory and capping the size of Kyiv’s military. After frenzied talks from Geneva to Berlin, Kyiv and its allies successfully lobbied for an alternative plan, which includes an offer by American officials to provide a NATO-style security assurance to protect Ukraine.  “For the first time since 2022, a ceasefire is conceivable,” Merz said at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday. Zelenskyy is expected to attend the summit and to update leaders on the progress of the negotiations. U.S. and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend to continue talks. According to draft conclusions obtained by POLITICO, the EU will commit to providing “robust and credible security guarantees for Ukraine” — and, in a thinly veiled rebuke to Washington calling the shots, the bloc is set to declare that it “will decide on matters of its competence or affecting its security.”  MAKING THE EU COMPETITIVE  As the EU launches various measures to revitalize its sputtering economy, the focus of talks will be how external pressures (read: the U.S. and China) are impacting the bloc’s drive to become competitive. The draft conclusions are light on details or deliverables, saying simply that the EU’s leaders “held a strategic discussion about the geoeconomic situation and its implications for the EU’s competitiveness.”  A senior EU official clarified to POLITICO that the leaders are set to discuss how to handle the U.S. and Chinese postures in the global economy. Washington has shaken up the global trade order with its punishing tariffs while Beijing has alarmed Brussels by ramping up its rare earth export controls. AND … MERCOSUR? One thing that is not officially on the agenda is the Mercosur trade deal, which would create an enormous free trade zone with the South American bloc of countries and is finally on the cusp of being agreed after 25 years of talks.   France, and now Italy, want to delay a crucial vote on the deal over concerns about safeguards for the agricultural sector. But Denmark, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, has vowed to hold the vote in time for von der Leyen to fly to Brazil on Dec. 20 to sign the deal.   While the vote isn’t set to be discussed on Thursday, that doesn’t mean it won’t come up when the leaders gather. ENLARGEMENT IS BACK ON THE AGENDA  On Wednesday, leaders from the Western Balkans countries convened in Brussels to discuss taking forward their countries’ bids to join the bloc. Montenegro, the most advanced candidate, closed five accession chapters this week and is vying to join the bloc by 2028. With enlargement finally a real possibility in the not-too-distant future, the topic — which was not on the agenda at the summit in October — has returned to the fore. Leaders are set to endorse growing the bloc and to discuss “internal reforms,” according to draft conclusions. That’s shorthand for overhauling how the EU makes decisions so that a bloc with 30-plus members isn’t paralyzed.   Gabriel Gavin, Gregorio Sorgi and Camille Gijs contributed to this report. 

Serbia will be absent when EU leaders meet their Western Balkan counterparts on Wednesday evening to discuss enlargement after President Aleksandar Vučić said late Tuesday that his country would not attend. “For the first time in the last 13 or 14 years, neither I nor anyone else will go to that intergovernmental conference. No one will represent the Republic of Serbia, so the Western Balkans will be without the Republic of Serbia,” Vučić told Serbian media. The Serbian president called it a personal decision, arguing that “by doing this, I believe I am protecting the Republic of Serbia and its interests, because we need to show what we have achieved.” Serbia has made little progress in its bid to join the EU, despite being granted candidate status in 2012. No major accession milestones have been reached since 2021. Vučić’s decision follows a dinner meeting in Brussels on Dec. 10 with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa, where Vučić said he proposed that all six Western Balkan countries join the EU simultaneously rather than through the standard step-by-step accession process. Serbia has long maintained close ties with Russia, rooted in historical, cultural and religious connections as well as close economic cooperation; Serbia relies on Moscow for gas supplies. Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Serbia has faced growing pressure to distance itself from Moscow but has resisted imposing sanctions, instead seeking to balance its ties with Russia and the European Union. Serbian Minister for European Integration Nemanja Starović issued a statement backing Vučić’s decision, accusing the EU of a “short-sighted lack of willingness” to recognize Serbia’s reforms and make progress in the accession process — a stance he said sends a negative message to Serbian citizens. “This message only fuels anti-European narratives and discourages those who are driving reform processes within society,” Starović said. Starović went on to say that Serbia’s absence defends ” the dignity of our people, but also the integrity of the accession process, as well as the credibility of the European idea in Serbia.” Opposition politicians in Serbia criticized the decision, calling it “an attempt at emotional blackmail, because Vučić is dissatisfied that Albania and Montenegro have made progress and are likely to become the next EU member states,” said Aleksandar Radovanović, member of the Free Citizens Movement. Pavle Grbović, a member of Serbia’s parliament also from Free Citizens Movement, said it was “a symptom of profound political cowardice and an attempt to evade uncomfortable questions and messages.” POLITICO contacted the European Council for comment but did not receive a reply.

Ukraine and the European Union have agreed on a series of reforms Kyiv must undertake to bolster the rule of law and keep its bid to join the 27-member bloc on track, officials said. Speaking in Ukraine’s Lviv on Thursday, Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the plan included 10 “reform priorities,” all of which concerned the need to bolster judicial institutions. The pact comes weeks after the largest corruption scandal to hit Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, affecting close associates of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “The Commission … sees this new phase in the negotiations as an opportunity to pick up speed and intensity” in Kyiv’s bid to join the EU, Kos said. The 10 points agreed “all focus on strengthening rule of law, fighting corruption and building strong, accountable democratic institutions in Ukraine.” In a statement co-signed by Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Kos hailed the completion of a “bilateral screening process.” The commissioner also noted that technical work to open six so-called negotiating clusters had been completed even as Hungary continues to block the formal opening of accession talks with Kyiv, a step that requires the approval of all 27 EU member states. Kyiv is determined to make rapid progress in its bid to join the EU, and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has encouraged the mission, saying Ukraine’s place is inside the bloc. However, the recent corruption scandal, which saw Zelenskyy fire one of his closest aides, has dealt a setback to the process. Thursday’s reform plan aims to address the stumble. “If we do this cluster by cluster and Ukraine does its part, we can make sure that Ukraine is as ready as possible to become a member once the Hungary veto is off the table,” Swedish Europe Minister Jessica Rosencrantz told POLITICO, referring to the possibility that Hungary’s Moscow-friendly PM Viktor Orbán might be defeated in scheduled April 2026 parliamentary elections. The accession talks are at the heart of peace negotiations being led by U.S. President Donald Trump. With Washington refusing to let Kyiv into NATO, Ukraine’s bid to join the EU looms large as a major incentive for the country to keep fighting and pursuing internal reforms. “Of course in one sense an EU membership is also one kind of security guarantee,” added Sweden’s Rosencrantz, who was on the ground in Lviv. “We know also that Ukrainian people have been striving for EU membership for many years.” Among other reforms, the plan unveiled Thursday includes making “comprehensive amendments” to Ukraine’s criminal code; reinforcing its NABU anti-corruption agency; adopting a law to standardize the appointment of prosecutors; reforming the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI); appointing internationally-vetted judges to the Constitutional Court and High Council of Justice; and developing internal control systems against high-level corruption, among other points.

BRUSSELS ― Belgian police raided the EU’s foreign service and the College of Europe on Tuesday in a bombshell corruption probe — and detained two of the EU’s most powerful officials. Federica Mogherini, who once served as the EU’s top diplomat, and Stefano Sannino, a director-general in the European Commission, were questioned over allegations of fraud in the establishment of a training academy for diplomats. Mogherini was born in Rome, the daughter of a film set designer. She was elected to the Italian parliament in 2008 as an MP with the center-left Democratic Party and became Italy’s foreign minister in 2014, an appointment that, at the time, took many by surprise. The 52-year-old’s tenure was short-lived, as she was made the EU’s high representative — the foreign policy chief — the same year, a position she held until 2019. Her time in the job is perhaps most notable for her work on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. At the end of her five-year term, she became the rector of the Bruges-based College of Europe, a position she’s been in ever since. But her appointment was mired in claims of cronyism, as professors and EU officials argued that she was not qualified for the post, did not meet the criteria and applied after the deadline. She has also served as the director of the EU Diplomatic Academy, a program for junior diplomats across EU countries that is run by the College of Europe, since August 2022. It’s the academy that is at the center of the probe. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO) said it has “strong suspicions” that rules around “fair competition” were breached when the EEAS awarded the tender to set up the academy. Sannino, a career diplomat from Naples with a packed CV including various roles in Rome and Brussels, has served as director-general of DG Enlargement, permanent representative of Italy to the EU, Italian ambassador to Spain and Andorra and secretary-general of the European External Action Service (EEAS). He has championed LGBTQ+ rights and is married to Catalan political adviser Santiago Mondragón. He started his current role as director-general of DG MENA, the EU’s department for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf, in February. He has lectured at the College of Europe and at the diplomatic academy. None of the people questioned has been charged. An investigative judge has 48 hours to decide on further action.

KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is under fierce pressure to fire his powerful top aide Andriy Yermak amid a corruption scandal that risks spiraling into the country’s biggest domestic political crisis since Russia’s full-scale invasion. The pressure to ditch Yermak — described to POLITICO by four senior Ukrainian officials involved in political discussions in Kyiv — poses a problem for Zelenskyy because it comes partly from within the ranks of his own Servant of the People party. The crisis looks set to come to a head on Thursday, when Zelenskyy will hold crunch meetings with government officials and members of parliament. Yermak runs the presidential office and is a sharp-elbowed political operator who has been crucial in steering Zelenskyy’s rule since he took power in 2019. Some see him as almost a co-president. The attacks on such a crucial ally could hardly come at a more sensitive moment for Zelenskyy. Kyiv faces a massive budget shortfall, and the president must convince his Western allies that Ukraine is a safe place to send billions of euros in vital funding. Two people directly involved in the political discussions said Zelenskyy would fight back and defend Yermak from the mounting criticism later this week. While there have been attempts to link Yermak directly to the snowballing corruption scandal, the campaign against him is also a sign of broader frustration — within both the opposition and Zelenskyy’s party — over Yermak’s domineering presence in the presidential office. An earlier drive by that office to strip Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau of its independence triggered public fury in July. ENERGY SCANDAL The immediate flashpoint rocking Ukrainian politics — and fueling the attack against Yermak — is a corruption scandal in the country’s shattered energy sector. The controversy erupted last week after current and former officials were officially charged with manipulating contracts at Energoatom, the state nuclear energy company, to extract kickbacks. Government investigators say the network laundered roughly $100 million through a secret Kyiv-based office. Most have publicly denied the accusations. Yermak’s political opponents are trying to link him directly to the scandal — saying either he or one of his lieutenants is the anonymous individual referred to as Ali Baba in wiretaps related to the energy case. The NABU anti-corruption bureau, however, says it can “neither confirm nor deny” that allegation, and Yermak himself protests his innocence. “People mention me, and sometimes, absolutely without any evidence, they try to accuse me of things I don’t even know about,” he told POLITICO’s sister publication Welt in the Axel Springer Group last week, when asked directly whether he was involved. The political pitfall for Yermak — amid such a high-profile scandal — is that his adversaries accuse him of having played a lead role in seeking to strip NABU of its independence just as it was looking into the Energoatom case. “He’s the one who decided to pick a fight with NABU,” a senior Ukrainian adviser told POLITICO, asking not to be identified to be able to speak frankly. “Had he not done that, basically, they think this scandal would have just been, you know, swept under the rug or it would have come out later in a year or so,” the adviser added. “His enemies see this as an opportunity to try to get rid of him.” That view was echoed by other insiders. “Of course, Yermak’s opponents and also people that he has stripped of influence and schemes, are asking the president to fire him,” a senior Ukrainian official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity to speak candidly. DAMAGE REPAIR Zelenskyy previously attempted to repair the damage from the energy scandal by imposing sanctions on his former business partner Tymur Mindich. He also launched a reshuffle and an audit at Energoatom and other state energy companies. Mindich has fled to Israel and could not be contacted for comment. Ukrainian watchdogs and MPs, however — especially from the opposition but also from the ruling Servant of the People party — claimed he had not done enough and demanded a more thorough clean-up. All the Ukrainian officials who spoke to POLITICO expected Zelenskyy would have to address the matter directly on Thursday. Former President Petro Poroshenko, who lost elections to Zelenskyy in 2019 after a similar corruption scandal involving his own close allies, said his faction had started collecting signatures to oust the entire government, citing the need to restore public trust and reassure Kyiv’s war allies. “Ukraine is experiencing the greatest threat to its existence, starting from February 24, 2022. Now it is necessary to resolve the issue of the Ukrainian people’s trust in the government, in the Verkhovna Rada [parliament]. The issue is of partners’ trust in the state of Ukraine,” Poroshenko said in a Facebook post on Tuesday. An MP confirmed to POLITICO that dissent was also present in the president’s Servant of the People faction in the Ukrainian parliament, particularly following NABU’s release of audio tapes on which suspects in the case allegedly discuss corruption schemes. “The reason is the tapes from NABU. Everyone understands the tapes are leading to him [Yermak], and that he was behind the July crisis [regarding NABU’s independence]. If this becomes publicly known, it will undermine all [members of the] Servants [party],” said the MP, who was also granted anonymity.  “There’s a high probability he will indeed resign, but we will believe it when we see it,” the MP added. POLITICO sought comment from Yermak, but he is currently traveling in Western Europe with Zelenskyy and was not able to respond immediately. Zelenskyy is expected to address the matter when he returns. Two of the Ukrainian officials said Zelenskyy had told them he would not give in to the pressure and would keep Yermak, but that he would make some government changes, possibly bringing in some opposition figures to appease critics. “This week, there will be relevant conversations with government officials and a meeting with the leadership of the parliament and MPs of the Servant of the People faction. I am preparing several necessary legislative initiatives and principled quick decisions that our state needs,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday, while providing no further details.  Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and an opposition MP from the Holos party, told POLITICO that some MPs from the Servant of the People party were in revolt and suspected a link between Yermak and the corruption schemes. But NABU head Semen Kryvonos has publicly refused to either “confirm or deny” that Yermak features in the wiretaps from the energy sector scandal.   “Of course, they would not publicly tell you details of an ongoing investigation. Lawmakers assume that without Yermak, this all would not have happened,” Zheleznyak said. Ibrahim Naber of Welt contributed reporting.