BRUSSELS — The EU needs to change its rules to enable a new wave of countries to join, the bloc’s enlargement chief said Tuesday, calling on capitals to present their own plans after they rejected proposals by the Commission to streamline the process. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the EU’s executive arm had already presented three options to countries and “without … the decision of the member states, we cannot move on,” speaking at POLITICO’s Competitive Europe Summit. Those three options include maintaining the status quo, changing the current system to ensure candidate countries don’t languish for years, or the reverse enlargement proposal put forward by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her team, where applicants would join before completing key reforms. The accession process has been complicated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s persistent refusal to ensure the unanimous support needed for Ukraine to proceed in its candidacy. Reverse enlargement was envisioned by Brussels as a way for Kyiv and others to begin to get access to the single market and investment schemes before becoming a full EU member. “From the first exchange with the member states [it’s clear] the number three option is not okay … this would be a revolution,” Kos said in an onstage interview, adding that “the number one option, the status quo, is also not an option.” While a redesign of the system is likely, the Slovenian commissioner went on, “now we are debating into [which] direction. How can we make the process faster in the sense of enhanced gradual integration?” At a dinner with ambassadors earlier this month, von der Leyen’s chief of staff Björn Seibert was warned that the reverse enlargement proposal was seen as unworkable by capitals. Envoys cite both arduous legal requirements around how new countries can join and fears that new countries could backslide democratically and end up blocking the EU agenda, as Hungary has done. “We think only one or two countries are supportive of the proposals from the Commission so it’s not a great success,” said one of the diplomats, cautioning that capitals want to ensure enlargement proceeds in a way that fits their own legal requirements. “There is great support for accession of Ukraine to the European Union,” said a second diplomat. “But it is also true that almost no member state supports accession before the negotiations will have been finished in a regular way.” A DIFFERENT WAY Four diplomats, granted anonymity to speak frankly about the sensitive talks, told POLITICO that countries are now in the process of developing their own proposals to share with the Commission. These would set out alternative mechanisms, likely focusing on how candidate countries can feel the benefits of alignment with the EU’s market and access to its investment schemes. “If member states don’t like ‘reverse enlargement,’ that is fine,” said one EU official, “but they can put their proposals on the table too.” In a rare show of unity last month, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić penned an op-ed in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that bemoaned the slow pace of efforts to get the benefits of closer alignment with the bloc. This was the result of “internal reforms, geopolitical tensions, institutional constraints, and legitimate concerns within member states,” they wrote. Instead, they said, their countries want to join the Single Market, as well as the borderless Schengen area, without getting the political rights and veto power of full members. The plan, which would create a two-tier EU of rule makers and rule takers, has been backed by some smaller candidate countries, and met with skepticism from Moldova and Ukraine which aim to be admitted on an equal basis as others have. However, Kos dismissed the call, saying she was unsure if the leaders “know how much you have to deliver if you want to be a part of Schengen or common market,” and that the process of reforms is arduous for economic integration as well as EU membership. No country has become a member since Croatia in 2013. Ukraine’s aspiration to join the bloc by Jan. 1, 2027, she went on, would be “impossible.” Iceland, by contrast, could be a “special case” and “really go quick” if voters decide to reopen negotiations in a referendum to be held this summer amid geopolitical insecurity and tensions with the United States. President Donald Trump repeatedly mistook Iceland for Greenland in a speech in January, as he insisted his country should take control of Arctic territories. “Iceland is so much integrated already through the EEA that the Common Market is there. Schengen is there,” Kos said. “So the most difficult topics, if I speak about the necessary reforms or, being integrated in the EU, they already are [there]. If we speak about the development of democracy, they are very high. European values, they are very high.”

BRUSSELS — Europe’s biggest political group on Wednesday called for a special hearing in the European Parliament to grill Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos on allegations she collaborated decades ago with secret police in the former Yugoslavia.  Kos denied claims she had been in league with Yugoslavia’s intelligence agency in the 1980s at her 2024 confirmation hearing in the Parliament. But the allegations resurfaced last week with the support of an MEP in the European People’s Party (EPP), the political family of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Kos’s boss.  Kos’ cabinet did not respond to a request for comment. But a Commission official told POLITICO last week that Kos had undergone “the extensive and thorough vetting process” required to become a commissioner. An official close to the commissioner’s office, granted anonymity to speak about the sensitive allegations, argued they constituted a political attack to “score points in the Slovenian elections.” Slovenia goes to the polls on Sunday, pitting the governing left-liberal coalition, which Kos formerly belonged to, against the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party, which is part of the EPP. The latter is leading in the polls. Manfred Weber, president of the EPP, is now calling for Kos to be questioned in the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “The questions that have been raised regarding the European Commissioner must be answered in the European Parliament,” Weber said in a written statement provided to Slovenian press and to POLITICO. “That is why we have requested the convening of an urgent extraordinary meeting of the [foreign affairs] committee. This is not a pre-judgment on content, but … Marta Kos must appear in the European Parliament and answer the questions in order to preserve the integrity and credibility of the European Commission,” he added. The allegations resurfaced after Slovenian MEP Romana Tomc, an EPP group vice president, wrote to the Commission last week claiming to have fresh evidence that Kos, who is also Slovenian, collaborated with Yugoslav intelligence. At the Parliament in Strasbourg, Tomc presented a book by Slovenian author Igor Omerza containing documents that the two said proved Kos worked with the Yugoslav spy agency. Any hearing would take place in the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), which is chaired by David McAllister, an EPP MEP. The chairman and group coordinators decide whether to schedule committee hearings. Kos had been due to speak at an AFET hearing on Monday but canceled her appearance. Gabriel Gavin contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — The EU on Tuesday pressed ahead with the steps needed to get Ukraine and Moldova into the bloc, despite Hungary’s efforts to prevent further enlargement. The two prospective EU members were given legal guidance covering three negotiating “clusters” that need to be completed before joining (guidance for three other so-called clusters was shared in December). The whole process involves six clusters, which are subdivided into a total of 35 chapters covering a range of issues on which countries have to reach EU standards. The EU plan is to give Kyiv and Chișinău a head start on the technical work needed even though formal negotiations remain stalled because of a Hungarian block. Speaking after a working breakfast with Ukraine in Brussels, Marilena Raouna, the Europe minister of Cyprus, which holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, said: “Enlargement is not a symbolic gesture, it is a strategic investment in Europe’s peace and stability,” and praised Ukraine’s “extraordinary commitment” to reforms despite Russia’s ongoing war. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, speaking at the same press conference, said the bloc must accelerate the accession process. “We must speed up,” Kos said, adding that “there cannot be a safe Europe without a safe, democratic and prosperous Ukraine as one of us.” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka called the step “revolutionary,” saying Kyiv would press ahead with reforms despite the war. Speaking after a separate meeting with Moldova, Raouna said Chișinău was “advancing decisively” in its accession process, with reforms progressing at an “impressive pace.” “This is an important and pragmatic step,” said Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Cristina Gherasimov, adding that accession remained “the only viable path” for the country’s future, and it hopes to join the EU by 2030. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has made blocking Ukraine’s accession a key part of his campaign ahead of an April 12 national election. The deadlock is also holding back Moldova, as its EU membership bid has moved in lockstep with Ukraine’s. The announcement had been planned for a meeting in Cyprus earlier this month, but was delayed after an Iranian drone hit a British air base on the island. Attention now shifts to whether member countries will unblock the next phase — formally opening accession negotiations — later this year.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music European affairs ministers meet in Brussels to prepare this week’s EU summit — with discussions ranging from Ukraine and the war in Iran to the bloc’s next long-term budget and competitiveness. But there is also motion on enlargement. Ukraine and Moldova are receiving the remaining negotiating clusters in their EU accession talks, while Montenegro is set to provisionally close another chapter. Meanwhile the war with Iran is already testing transatlantic unity. After Donald Trump urged allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign ministers made clear they have no intention of sending warships there, with several capitals warning they won’t be dragged into the war. And in the world of sport and geopolitics, EU Sports Commissioner Glenn Micallef is pressing FIFA President Gianni Infantino for clearer assurances that European fans travelling to the 2026 World Cup will be safe — as tensions rise following the U.S.-Israeli war in the Middle East. Host Zoya Sheftalovich is joined by POLITICO’s chief foreign affairs correspondent, Nick Vinocur. Send any questions or comments to us on our WhatsApp: +32 491 05 06 29. 

STRASBOURG — EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos is facing fresh allegations that she collaborated with the Yugoslav secret police in the 1980s, after a member of the European Parliament claimed to have new proof. The allegations, which came up during the Slovenian commissioner’s confirmation hearing in the Parliament in 2024 and which Kos then denied, have resurfaced ahead of Slovenia’s March 22 election with support from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s own party. Slovenian MEP Romana Tomc, a vice president of the center-right European People’s Party — the largest group in the Parliament — said Thursday she had written to the Commission claiming to have fresh evidence that Kos collaborated with Yugoslavia’s spy agency and demanding an investigation. Tomc told POLITICO Kos was not honest when “claiming that she didn’t collaborate in the secret service … We have to do something with this information.” A spokesperson for the EPP said: “Romana Tomc has kept the EPP Group closely informed about the latest revelations concerning Commissioner Marta Kos. The Group will examine the matter carefully. For now, we note that Commissioner Kos has not denied these new revelations. The ball is now in her court.” Kos did not respond to POLITICO’s repeated requests for comment. But a Commission official said Kos “went through the extensive and thorough vetting process” to become a commissioner, adding that the Parliament “approved Commissioner Kos’s appointment in the same process as all 27 Commissioners.” An official close to the commissioner’s office, who was granted anonymity to speak about the sensitive allegations, told POLITICO: “She [Kos] is very aware political opponents will use these kinds of things to score points in the Slovenian elections, but she is laser-focused on her job as enlargement commissioner.” Kos will appear before the Parliament’s foreign affairs committee on Monday to discuss enlargement, and is also expected to face questions about the allegations. At the Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday, Tomc presented a book by Slovenian author Igor Omerza showing documents they said proved Kos worked with the Yugoslav spy agency. The Slovenian MEP’s questions to the Commission include whether the EU executive intends to investigate the claims against Kos and whether further revelations could affect the commissioner’s “credibility.” “I was never a collaborator or informant of the secret service of Yugoslavia,” Kos told MEPs at her hearing in 2024, calling the allegations “lies” and “disinformation.” Slovenia heads to a vote later this month, pitting the governing left-liberal coalition, which Kos formerly belonged to, against the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party, to which Tomc belongs. The latter is currently leading in the polls. Gabriel Gavin contributed to this report from Brussels.

Iceland could conclude accession talks with the EU within “a year and a half” and become its 28th member country, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO. Iceland will hold a referendum on Aug. 29 on whether to relaunch its aborted negotiations to join the EU. A recent Gallup poll pointed to a tight vote, with 52 percent of people in favor of the move and 48 against. “Sometimes you don’t have to let the poll lead, but lead yourself,” said Þorgerður, who heads the pro-EU Viðreisn party. Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area and part of the Schengen free travel zone, so it already has many of the EU’s laws on its books. As a result, “it will not be so complicated for us” and “would be rather a quick process” to conclude negotiations to join the bloc, assuming Icelanders vote to restart talks, said Þorgerður. Asked whether Iceland could beat the candidates that are most advanced in their EU membership negotiations, such as Montenegro, to become the EU’s 28th member, Þorgerður said “yes.” However, she added, “the biggest issue will, of course, be the fisheries.” Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and a change in its economic circumstances; it formally withdrew its application in 2015. Before that Reykjavík had closed 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters — a milestone Montenegro surpassed only in the last few months. An EU official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told POLITICO last month that it could take as little as one year to conclude negotiations with Reykjavík. Þorgerður cautioned that even if Icelanders say yes in August, there would still need to be another vote once the negotiations conclude. Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and a change in its economic circumstances. | Sergi Reboredo/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images But the benefits of joining the bloc at a time of “geopolitical turbulence” are making an impression, Þorgerður said. “It’s also very important for our businesses, for our industries that we give them a shelter and safeguard them within the Union.” Iceland would benefit from joining the EU both economically and on security, Þorgerður said. “We always have higher inflation and interest rates than other European countries. And there are too many monopolies in the economy.” The EU would also benefit from having the geostrategic and wealthy Iceland in the bloc, she added. With the August referendum, “we are giving the power to the people,” Þorgerður said. “I would say it would be beneficial both for Iceland and the European Union to negotiate now, not in two years’ time or whatever, but now.”

BRUSSELS — The European Union must move more quickly to include new members and expand the 27-member club, the bloc’s top diplomat said Monday in a nod to Ukraine, Montenegro and other candidate countries waiting to join. Enlargement must “remain merit-based but in the current context we need to step up the pace,” Kaja Kallas told an annual conference of EU diplomats in Brussels. “Enlargement is the antidote to Russian imperialism, and a sign that the most ambitious multilateral project in history, the European Union, is here to stay.” Kallas’ push for faster integration of EU candidate countries lands amid tense discussions between the European Commission, which advocates for speedy enlargement, and national capitals that have backed a more gradual approach. At a dinner last week attended by the European Commission president’s chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, EU ambassadors rejected the possibility of allowing in new members with limited privileges. Kallas’ words offer heavyweight backing to the idea that enlargement isn’t simply a bureaucratic process by which candidates fulfill EU criteria but a geopolitical choice — as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested.  “Enlargement has been described as the union’s most successful foreign policy, extending the area of stability, peace and prosperity,” Kallas said, citing Eurobarometer data showing wide support for expanding the 27-member bloc. But, she added, “it is up to us to keep telling the enlargement story.” A senior EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, said countries would do their best to keep the bloc’s enlargement process on track, despite the differences between the Council and the Commission.  Work is now underway to make the next three presidencies of the Council of the EU focus on bringing in new member countries, with an eye to finishing Ukraine’s negotiations by the end of 2027, even if an accession treaty might take longer to complete. The prospect of a public debate about Ukraine’s membership is worrying to some EU leaders, who fear it could give ammunition to far-right parties ahead of elections in France, Finland and other countries next year. “You need to have a political narrative on Ukraine,” the senior EU diplomat said.

BRUSSELS ― European governments are irritated over what they see as Ursula von der Leyen’s move to position herself as the EU’s chief representative abroad, saying that during the opening days of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran she went beyond her mandate. In conversations with POLITICO, nine diplomats, EU officials and lawmakers, hailing from small and large European countries, criticized what they described as the European Commission president’s diplomatic overreach. Disapproval of her handling of the Iran crisis comes on top of carping about other foreign policy issues, including the Commission’s efforts to speed up Ukraine’s entry into the EU and von der Leyen’s approach to Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace.”   With the Middle East conflict entering its second week, the EU has struggled to speak with a common voice. Several governments are irked that von der Leyen seems to be playing the role the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas ― meant to represent the 27 capitals ― should normally do. In the first days of the crisis, von der Leyen signaled support for regime change in Tehran and held no fewer than a dozen calls with EU and Gulf state leaders. She’s repeatedly staked out public positions that go well beyond the consensus between the bloc’s members, her critics said. “I felt I was hallucinating … watching Ursula von der Leyen call the heads of Gulf states,” said Nathalie Loiseau, a centrist French lawmaker on the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. “She has no diplomatic service, speaks without a mandate or intelligence briefings. Her words have no value beyond her individual statement.” The role of coordinating the bloc’s foreign policy, the diplomats who spoke to POLITICO said, lies with Kallas, whose task it is to liaise with capitals and formulate a common position — even if that’s often a slow and painstaking process. Von der Leyen risks creating confusion in relations with the rest of the world, they said. “The problem is the president going out with ideas and somehow committing the European Union without consulting countries beforehand,” said a senior EU diplomat involved in foreign policy discussions and who, like others in this article, was granted anonymity to speak frankly about sensitive internal matters. “She is saying things that are not in her mandate.” These tensions will be in the background as von der Leyen and Kallas preside over a conference of EU ambassadors in Brussels today, where both are due to give keynote speeches. The Commission rejected the accusations, saying von der Leyen was carrying out her work as she should. She is demonstrating “political leadership of the Commission’s external policies” in line with the EU’s treaties, a Commission spokesperson said. “Outreach to other leaders worldwide is part and parcel of President von der Leyen’s responsibilities, be it bilaterally, multilaterally or in EU-led initiatives, such as the Global Gateway event,” designed to boost investment around the world, the spokesperson said. The EU’s formal position on the Iran war was not set out by von der Leyen but defined by Kallas in a statement coordinated with Europe’s 27 countries a week ago, according to the spokesperson. “The statement reflects the EU’s position on the matter,” the spokesperson said. EUROPE’S PRESIDENT? Von der Leyen’s evolution into the EU’s most powerful figure with a stature on a par with presidents and prime ministers has been nearly seven years in the making. The former German defense minister has led the EU through one crisis after another, from the Covid pandemic to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and trade disputes with U.S. President Trump. In many of those situations, EU leaders have expressed gratitude that she has stepped forward. “You rarely hear much criticism of von der Leyen when it comes to Ukraine,” said a diplomat. | Martin Bertrand/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images “You rarely hear much criticism of von der Leyen when it comes to Ukraine,” said the diplomat from a mid-sized EU country. “That’s because most EU countries are aligned in their support of Ukraine and it’s almost seen as an internal matter.” Diplomats voiced support for the EU executive chief’s work as a crisis manager, praising her for coordinating support for Ukraine against Russia and managing tense commercial relations with the U.S. The difficulties have emerged on thorny Middle East politics or when the Commission’s position on EU expansion is felt as pressuring governments to agree before they’re ready. The diplomats who spoke to POLITICO argued that von der Leyen’s flurry of tweets and conversations with Gulf leaders did not formally represent EU foreign policy positions. Critics also voiced skepticism about what von der Leyen, who has no military means at her disposal and has no mandate to shape EU-wide foreign policy positions, could be offering Gulf states under missile and drone attack from Iran. “What exactly is she promising when she says we will support them?” asked Loiseau. “Who is ‘we’? For now, the support is the Charles de Gaulle [French aircraft carrier], Rafale jets in Abu Dhabi and defense agreements with some countries.” “What we’re seeing is role-play with nothing behind it,” said Loiseau, who belongs to French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party. Von der Leyen is a member of the center-right European People’s Party, along with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A statement in which von der Leyen appeared to embrace a change of leadership in Iran proved particularly irksome to EU countries that lean closer to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s highly critical stance toward the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes. EU countries are split over how to respond to the conflict. Despite reaching a consensus on a statement about the war on March 1, ten countries had advocated a more prominent invocation of international law during an emergency gathering of EU foreign ministers, two diplomats said. Some countries argue that von der Leyen’s statements don’t reflect that delicate balance. “We [Europe] are meant to be the beacon of international law,” said a fourth diplomat. “But now she has trapped us on regime change. Whose position is this? Not ours.” Gulf countries had been “grateful” for von der Leyen’s “proactive” outreach in recent days, the Commission spokesperson said. ‘THIS IS NOT WHAT WE WANT’ In Paris, it’s von der Leyen’s decision to send her commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, to the inaugural session of the Board of Peace ― the Trump-led body aimed at promoting global stability ― that irked most, leading to public criticism from French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot. The ruffled feathers were “predictable,” a fifth diplomat said.  Von der Leyen decided to send Dubravka Šuica to the inaugural session of the Board of Peace. | Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images “As we knew, Trump made no distinction between observers and full members [of the Board of Peace],” the diplomat said. “He displayed the EU flag along with others, suggesting that Europe supports this initiative. This is not what we want.” As if to underscore the divisions in Brussels, Kallas had been working to coordinate a joint position on the Board of Peace by texting the bloc’s foreign ministers and inviting them not to participate, the diplomat said. “This is what we expect” on foreign policy, the diplomat added. Defending Šuica’s participation, the Commission distanced itself from fully supporting the Trump body.  “The participation of Commissioner Šuica cannot be interpreted as amounting to an implicit endorsement of the Board of Peace by the Commission, let alone by the [European] Union, nor an endorsement of the outcome of the meeting or of any resolutions that might be adopted by the board members,” the Commission spokesperson said. One diplomat from a mid-sized EU country backed up that view. “On the Board of Peace, realistically the large majority of member states were fine with how this went,” the diplomat said. READING THE ROOM The way the Commission has pushed to expand the EU to new members has annoyed some capitals.  Marta Kos, the commissioner in charge of the topic, has floated a range of creative solutions, including an attempt to bring Ukraine into the bloc as early as 2027.  The ideas — shared during informal briefings rather than in written proposals — have irked governments, prompting them last week to push back during a dinner with von der Leyen’s powerful chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert. “This dinner was overdue,” said a EU diplomat from a large EU country. “We all want Ukraine to be anchored in the EU, but enlargement needs to be acceptable to member states. There is a process — we are reminding them of that.” “The Commission did not read the room on this one,” said the diplomat from a mid-sized EU country. At the dinner, diplomats told the Commission they wanted to retain a merit-based approach to EU enlargement and were not in favor of a Commission idea to allow countries like Ukraine to join while they are still working to meet the joining criteria, according to officials in the meeting. An EU official aware of von der Leyen’s thinking pushed back on the idea that her Commission had overstepped on enlargement, pointing out that the EU executive has not put forward any formal proposals on changing the EU’s approach.  Discomfort with von der Leyen’s foreign policy activity has led to barely concealed tensions with Kaja Kallas. | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images Even so, it was the institution’s job to reflect on how procedures may be updated in light of geopolitical changes. “The world has changed dramatically” since those rules were created, said the official. DECIDING IT CONSCIOUSLY Diplomats who spoke to POLITICO for this article voiced support for the EU executive chief’s work as a crisis manager, praising her for coordinating support to Ukraine against Russia and managing tense commercial relations with the U.S. But discomfort with von der Leyen’s foreign policy activity has led to barely concealed tensions with Kallas — creating a need for a reckoning about who does what in the EU, several diplomats and officials said. “We need to decide whether we want an institutional change — whether we want to give more foreign policy functions to the Commission,” said Nacho Sánchez Amor, a Spanish European lawmaker from the Socialists and Democrats group. “If so, we need to think about it, examine it, and decide it consciously.” The Iran crisis, the push to get Ukraine into the bloc and the wider challenges prompted by Trump’s second term in the White House add to the sense of unease in some capitals. “There is a conversation to have about the competences” of the EU in foreign policy, a diplomat from a large country said. “Between the HRVP [High Representative Kallas], the Commission and the Council presidency, there is a risk of cacophony. There will be a time to discuss this in depth.” Max Griera contributed to this report.

Iceland will hold a referendum on Aug. 29 to decide whether to relaunch its stalled talks to join the EU, its government said Friday.  Icelandic Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir, who announced the date at a press conference in Reykjavik, said the vote would finally settle “a debate that has hung over the Icelandic nation.”  The Arctic country applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and formally withdrew its application in 2015. It is a member of the European Economic Area and part of the Schengen free travel area.  In recent months, Iceland — which occupies a strategically important position in the Arctic, but has no standing army — had explored expediting a referendum on the subject of reviving talks, as POLITICO reported last month. Polls show a clear majority of Icelanders support holding a referendum on resuming talks, though the population is more evenly split on whether Iceland should actually join the EU. The EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos played up the bloc’s attraction as a security guarantor in a time of geopolitical upheaval.   “A significant decision now lies ahead for the Icelandic people,” Kos said Friday in a post on X. “In a world that is changing fast, the European Union offers an anchor in a community of values, prosperity and security.”   If the referendum is successful, Iceland would need to go to another vote once it finishes accession negotiations to actually join the bloc. Zoya Sheftalovich contributed to this report. 

BRUSSELS — When it comes to letting new members into the EU, the European Commission has one main priority: making sure no hopeful turns into the next Hungary. To achieve that, the plan is to use Montenegro, which is close to completing its membership negotiations, as a guinea pig. Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović told POLITICO he was discussing what this would look like with the EU and member countries, including during a recent visit to Ireland, which will hold the presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of this year. The Commission wants to put “long-term safeguards” in Montenegro’s accession treaty to ensure the bloc can respond if the small Balkan country backslides on democracy or rule of law, a Commission official told POLITICO. The official was granted anonymity to speak about sensitive negotiations, as were others quoted in this piece. This “will be the accession treaty defining future accession treaties,” the EU official said. Montenegro is not the only country jostling join the EU; Ukraine has been pushing for EU membership in 2027 to be included in a peace deal with the Kremlin, and Iceland is to hold a referendum on restarting EU membership talks. But Milatović said that “nobody really knows” what the text will ultimately look like. Podgorica is waiting for the Commission to provide more information, he added. The debate in the Commission’s Berlaymont headquarters is about what “the lessons we have learned from the 2004 enlargement” are, the Commission official said, referring to when Hungary, Slovakia and eight other countries joined the bloc. “Does our Union have the ability to respond to backwards steps? Not really.” Hungary has proven to be something of a cautionary tale for the EU. Budapest under Viktor Orbán has been a thorn in the bloc’s side and last month blocked the EU’s 20th round of sanctions against Russia and a €90 billion lifeline for Kyiv. The Commission’s priority now is to ensure Montenegro and other new joiners don’t turn into Hungary 2.0. Montenegro’s accession treaty — effectively the rules under which countries join the EU — will be drafted by a working group organized by the Cypriot Council presidency, with input from all EU member countries. A spokesperson for the Cypriot presidency declined to say when the working group would be formed. But the Commission official told POLITICO it would be within “weeks” and two European diplomats confirmed it was expected this month. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO the Commission “is currently in the final phase of preparing a draft treaty,” without giving a timeline. The lone holdout is France, one of the diplomats said. Paris is refusing to greenlight drafting the accession treaty and is taking an ultra-cautious approach to EU enlargement ahead of presidential elections in 2027, another senior EU diplomat told POLITICO. The Commission’s priority now is to ensure Montenegro and other new joiners don’t turn into Hungary 2.0. Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty images “Everyone is trying to persuade France to be okay with it,” a third diplomat said. THE VETO QUESTION There’s little clarity on what form the EU’s safeguards will take. “There are some ideas flying around but no one has come up with an actual proposal,” a European diplomat involved in the discussions told POLITICO. Some of the early suggestions include suspending veto rights if Montenegro and other new joiners violate fundamental EU values, especially the rule of law, the diplomat said. Another topic of discussion behind the scenes is how long the safeguards should remain in place. There were safeguard clauses in place for the countries that joined in 2004, on topics such as failure to implement internal market rules, but they could only be activated for three years after accession and were not very robust, the diplomat said. The only red line for Montenegro is limitations on its voting rights, a Montenegrin official told POLITICO. Podgorica is fine if the EU imposes other safeguards on it but it would not want to give up its voice at the decision-making table. A dinner in Brussels on Wednesday between EU ambassadors and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, saw them discuss enlargement. However, a Commission proposal to speed up membership for candidate countries via a process dubbed “reverse enlargement” — granting EU membership with limited privileges and voting rights — was forcefully rejected, according to three EU diplomats. DOMESTIC STRIFE All of this is contingent on Montenegro meeting its ambitious target to become the 28th member of the bloc by 2028. To do that, it has to pass a lot of laws to align with the EU rulebook. But the lightning-fast pace of reforms is causing some internal political strife. Last month, the Montenegrin president criticized MPs for waving laws through without properly reading or debating them, initially refusing to sign them before relenting. “It’s not the European standard that you basically just sort of raise your hand [and] get the salary,” Milatović told POLITICO, adding that even if the legislation was required to join the EU, lawmakers should still do their due diligence. “It’s true that Montenegro is effectively outsourcing its democracy to Brussels,” said another European diplomat. “But it has no choice if it wants to join the EU by 2028.” Despite the pace at which Montenegro is moving, whether it can join by 2028 is a big question mark. Podgorica has 20 of 33 accession chapters left to close and is set to close its next one — Chapter 21, on Trans-European Networks— in March, a Montenegrin official said. Hungary has proven to be something of a cautionary tale for the EU. | Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images Another four are expected to be closed in June. That would give it six months to achieve its goal of closing the remaining 15 chapters by the end of 2026, at which point all 27 current EU countries — including Hungary — would need to ratify its membership, a lengthy process in itself. The Commission official affirmed Montenegro’s ambitious membership target is “technically possible,” especially with Podgorica’s firm commitment. “But there is politics and then there is life,” the official said. Milatović agreed that the task ahead is a big one. “It’s not that easy to finish 20 chapters in the next less than 10 months,” the Montenegrin president said. “And this is where we really need to work even more than what is being done now.” Nick Vinocur contributed to this report.