Anton, a 44-year-old Russian soldier who heads a workshop responsible for repairing and supplying drones, was at his kitchen table when he learned last month that Elon Musk’s SpaceX had cut off access to Starlink terminals used by Russian forces. He scrambled for alternatives, but none offered unlimited internet, data plans were restrictive, and coverage did not extend to the areas of Ukraine where his unit operated. It’s not only American tech executives who are narrowing communications options for Russians. Days later, Russian authorities began slowing down access nationwide to the messaging app Telegram, the service that frontline troops use to coordinate directly with one another and bypass slower chains of command. “All military work goes through Telegram — all communication,” Anton, whose name has been changed because he fears government reprisal, told POLITICO in voice messages sent via the app. “That would be like shooting the entire Russian army in the head.” Telegram would be joining a home screen’s worth of apps that have become useless to Russians. Kremlin policymakers have already blocked or limited access to WhatsApp, along with parent company Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, Microsoft’s LinkedIn, Google’s YouTube, Apple’s FaceTime, Snapchat and X, which like SpaceX is owned by Musk. Encrypted messaging apps Signal and Discord, as well as Japanese-owned Viber, have been inaccessible since 2024. Last month, President Vladimir Putin signed a law requiring telecom operators to block cellular and fixed internet access at the request of the Federal Security Service. Shortly after it took effect on March 3, Moscow residents reported widespread problems with mobile internet, calls and text messages across all major operators for several days, with outages affecting mobile service and Wi-Fi even inside the State Duma. Those decisions have left Russians increasingly cut off from both the outside world and one another, complicating battlefield coordination and disrupting online communities that organize volunteer aid, fundraising and discussion of the war effort. Deepening digital isolation could turn Russia into something akin to “a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China,” according to Alexander Gabuev, the Berlin-based director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. In April, the Kremlin is expected to escalate its campaign against Telegram — already one of Russia’s most popular messaging platforms, but now in the absence of other social-media options, a central hub for news, business and entertainment. It may block the platform altogether. That is likely to fuel an escalating struggle between state censorship and the tools people use to evade it, with Russia’s place in the world hanging in the balance. “It’s turned into a war,” said Mikhail Klimarev, executive director of the internet Protection Society, a digital rights group that monitors Russia’s censorship infrastructure. “A guerrilla war. They hunt down the VPNs they can see, they block them — and the ‘partisans’ run, build new bunkers, and come back.” THE APP THAT RUNS THE WAR On Feb. 4, SpaceX tightened the authentication system that Starlink terminals use to connect to its satellite network, introducing stricter verification for registered devices. The change effectively blocked many terminals operated by Russian units relying on unauthorized connections, cutting Starlink traffic inside Ukraine by roughly 75 percent, according to internet traffic analysis by Doug Madory, an analyst at the U.S. network monitoring firm Kentik. The move threw Russian operations into disarray, allowing Ukraine to make battlefield gains. Russia has turned to a workaround widely used before satellite internet was an option: laying fiber-optic lines, from rear areas toward frontline battlefield positions. Until then, Starlink terminals had allowed drone operators to stream live video through platforms such as Discord, which is officially blocked in Russia but still sometimes used by the Russian military via VPNs, to commanders at multiple levels. A battalion commander could watch an assault unfold in real time and issue corrections — “enemy ahead” or “turn left” — via radio or Telegram. What once required layers of approval could now happen in minutes. Satellite-connected messaging apps became the fastest way to transmit coordinates, imagery and targeting data. But on Feb. 10, Roskomnadzor, the Russian communications regulator, began slowing down Telegram for users across Russia, citing alleged violations of Russian law. Russian news outlet RBC reported, citing two sources, that authorities plan to shut down Telegram in early April — though not on the front line. In mid-February, Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev said the government did not yet intend to restrict Telegram at the front but hoped servicemen would gradually transition to other platforms. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said this week the company could avoid a full ban by complying with Russian legislation and maintaining what he described as “flexible contact” with authorities. Roskomnadzor has accused Telegram of failing to protect personal data, combat fraud and prevent its use by terrorists and criminals. Similar accusations have been directed at other foreign tech platforms. In 2022, a Russian court designated Meta an “extremist organization” after the company said it would temporarily allow posts calling for violence against Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine war — a decision authorities used to justify blocking Facebook and Instagram in Russia and increasing pressure on the company’s other services, including WhatsApp. Telegram founder Pavel Durov, a Russian-born entrepreneur now based in the United Arab Emirates, says the throttiling is being used as a pretext to push Russians toward a government-controlled messaging app designed for surveillance and political censorship. That app is MAX, which was launched in March 2025 and has been compared to China’s WeChat in its ambition to anchor a domestic digital ecosystem. Authorities are increasingly steering Russians toward MAX through employers, neighborhood chats and the government services portal Gosuslugi — where citizens retrieve documents, pay fines and book appointments — as well as through banks and retailers. The app’s developer, VK, reports rapid user growth, though those figures are difficult to independently verify. “They didn’t just leave people to fend for themselves — you could say they led them by the hand through that adaptation by offering alternatives,” said Levada Center pollster Denis Volkov, who has studied Russian attitudes toward technology use. The strategy, he said, has been to provide a Russian or state-backed alternative for the majority, while stopping short of fully criminalizing workarounds for more technologically savvy users who do not want to switch. Elena, a 38-year-old Yekaterinburg resident whose surname has been withheld because she fears government reprisal, said her daughter’s primary school moved official communication from WhatsApp to MAX without consulting parents. She keeps MAX installed on a separate tablet that remains mostly in a drawer — a version of what some Russians call a “MAXophone,” gadgets solely for that app, without any other data being left on those phones for the (very real) fear the government could access it. “It works badly. Messages are delayed. Notifications don’t come,” she said. “I don’t trust it … And this whole situation just makes people angry.” THE VPN ARMS RACE Unlike China’s centralized “Great Firewall,” which filters traffic at the country’s digital borders, Russia’s system operates internally. Internet providers are required to route traffic through state-installed deep packet inspection equipment capable of controlling and analyzing data flows in real time. “It’s not one wall,” Klimarev said. “It’s thousands of fences. You climb one, then there’s another.” The architecture allows authorities to slow services without formally banning them — a tactic used against YouTube before its web address was removed from government-run domain-name servers last month. Russian law explicitly provides government authority for blocking websites on grounds such as extremism, terrorism, illegal content or violations of data regulations, but it does not clearly define throttling — slowing traffic rather than blocking it outright — as a formal enforcement mechanism. “The slowdown isn’t described anywhere in legislation,” Klimarev said. “It’s pressure without procedure.” In September, Russia banned advertising for virtual private network services that citizens use to bypass government-imposed restrictions on certain apps or sites. By Klimarev’s estimate, roughly half of Russian internet users now know what a VPN is, and millions pay for one. Polling last year by the Levada Center, Russia’s only major independent pollster, suggests regular use is lower, finding about one-quarter of Russians said they have used VPN services. Russian courts can treat the use of anonymization tools as an aggravating factor in certain crimes — steps that signal growing pressure on circumvention technologies without formally outlawing them. In February, the Federal Antimonopoly Service opened what appears to be the first case against a media outlet for promoting a VPN after the regional publication Serditaya Chuvashiya advertised such a service on its Telegram channel. Surveys in recent years have shown that many Russians, particularly older citizens, support tighter internet regulation, often citing fraud, extremism and online safety. That sentiment gives authorities political space to tighten controls even when the restrictions are unpopular among more technologically savvy users. Even so, the slowdown of Telegram drew criticism from unlikely quarters, including Sergei Mironov, a longtime Kremlin ally and leader of the Just Russia party. In a statement posted on his Telegram channel on Feb. 11, he blasted the regulators behind the move as “idiots,” accusing them of undermining soldiers at the front. He said troops rely on the app to communicate with relatives and organize fundraising for the war effort, warning that restricting it could cost lives. While praising the state-backed messaging app MAX, he argued that Russians should be free to choose which platforms they use. Pro-war Telegram channels frame the government’s blocking techniques as sabotage of the war effort. Ivan Philippov, who tracks Russia’s influential military bloggers, said the reaction inside that ecosystem to news about Telegram has been visceral “rage.” Unlike Starlink, whose cutoff could be blamed on a foreign company, restrictions on Telegram are viewed as self-inflicted. Bloggers accuse regulators of undermining the war effort. Telegram is used not only for battlefield coordination but also for volunteer fundraising networks that provide basic logistics the state does not reliably cover — from transport vehicles and fuel to body armor, trench materials and even evacuation equipment. Telegram serves as the primary hub for donations and reporting back to supporters. “If you break Telegram inside Russia, you break fundraising,” Philippov said. “And without fundraising, a lot of units simply don’t function.” Few in that community trust MAX, citing technical flaws and privacy concerns. Because MAX operates under Russian data-retention laws and is integrated with state services, many assume their communications would be accessible to authorities. Philippov said the app’s prominent defenders are largely figures tied to state media or the presidential administration. “Among independent military bloggers, I haven’t seen a single person who supports it,” he said. Small groups of activists attempted to organize rallies in at least 11 Russian cities, including Moscow, Irkutsk and Novosibirsk, in defense of Telegram. Authorities rejected or obstructed most of the proposed demonstrations — in some cases citing pandemic-era restrictions, weather conditions or vague security concerns — and in several cases revoked previously issued permits. In Novosibirsk, police detained around 15 people ahead of a planned rally. Although a small number of protests were formally approved, no large-scale demonstrations ultimately took place. THE POWER TO PULL THE PLUG The new law signed last month allows Russia’s Federal Security Service to order telecom operators to block cellular and fixed internet access. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said subsequent shutdowns of service in Moscow were linked to security measures aimed at protecting critical infrastructure and countering drone threats, adding that such limitations would remain in place “for as long as necessary.” In practice, the disruptions rarely amount to a total communications blackout. Most target mobile internet rather than all services, while voice calls and SMS often continue to function. Some domestic websites and apps — including government portals or banking services — may remain accessible through “whitelists,” meaning authorities allow certain services to keep operating even while broader internet access is restricted. The restrictions are typically localized and temporary, affecting specific regions or parts of cities rather than the entire country. Internet disruptions have increasingly become a tool of control beyond individual platforms. Research by the independent outlet Meduza and the monitoring project Na Svyazi has documented dozens of regional internet shutdowns and mobile network restrictions across Russia, with disruptions occurring regularly since May 2025. The communications shutdown, and uncertainty around where it will go next, is affecting life for citizens of all kinds, from the elderly struggling to contact family members abroad to tech-savvy users who juggle SIM cards and secondary phones to stay connected. Demand has risen for dated communication devices — including walkie-talkies, pagers and landline phones — along with paper maps as mobile networks become less reliable, according to retailers interviewed by RBC. “It feels like we’re isolating ourselves,” said Dmitry, 35, who splits his time between Moscow and Dubai and whose surname has been withheld to protect his identity under fear of governmental reprisal. “Like building a sovereign grave.” Those who track Russian public opinion say the pattern is consistent: irritation followed by adaptation. When Instagram and YouTube were blocked or slowed in recent years, their audiences shrank rapidly as users migrated to alternative services rather than mobilizing against the restrictions. For now, Russia’s digital tightening resembles managed escalation rather than total isolation. Officials deny plans for a full shutdown, and even critics say a complete severing would cripple banking, logistics and foreign trade. “It’s possible,” Klimarev said. “But if they do that, the internet won’t be the main problem anymore.”

Iceland could conclude accession talks with the EU within “a year and a half” and become its 28th member country, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir told POLITICO. Iceland will hold a referendum on Aug. 29 on whether to relaunch its aborted negotiations to join the EU. A recent Gallup poll pointed to a tight vote, with 52 percent of people in favor of the move and 48 against. “Sometimes you don’t have to let the poll lead, but lead yourself,” said Þorgerður, who heads the pro-EU Viðreisn party. Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area and part of the Schengen free travel zone, so it already has many of the EU’s laws on its books. As a result, “it will not be so complicated for us” and “would be rather a quick process” to conclude negotiations to join the bloc, assuming Icelanders vote to restart talks, said Þorgerður. Asked whether Iceland could beat the candidates that are most advanced in their EU membership negotiations, such as Montenegro, to become the EU’s 28th member, Þorgerður said “yes.” However, she added, “the biggest issue will, of course, be the fisheries.” Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and a change in its economic circumstances; it formally withdrew its application in 2015. Before that Reykjavík had closed 11 of the 33 negotiating chapters — a milestone Montenegro surpassed only in the last few months. An EU official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told POLITICO last month that it could take as little as one year to conclude negotiations with Reykjavík. Þorgerður cautioned that even if Icelanders say yes in August, there would still need to be another vote once the negotiations conclude. Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 amid a financial crisis but froze talks in 2013 after a dispute over fishing policy and a change in its economic circumstances. | Sergi Reboredo/VW Pics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images But the benefits of joining the bloc at a time of “geopolitical turbulence” are making an impression, Þorgerður said. “It’s also very important for our businesses, for our industries that we give them a shelter and safeguard them within the Union.” Iceland would benefit from joining the EU both economically and on security, Þorgerður said. “We always have higher inflation and interest rates than other European countries. And there are too many monopolies in the economy.” The EU would also benefit from having the geostrategic and wealthy Iceland in the bloc, she added. With the August referendum, “we are giving the power to the people,” Þorgerður said. “I would say it would be beneficial both for Iceland and the European Union to negotiate now, not in two years’ time or whatever, but now.”

KYIV — Ukraine sees a narrow window to secure its future within the EU: between the Hungarian election this April and the French presidential vote in April 2027, according to officials in Brussels and Kyiv. Kyiv wants to have a reference to EU membership in 2027 written into the peace deal being negotiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, and it sees the interval between the two key European elections as the best time to join the bloc. The EU is working on a plan that could give Ukraine partial membership next year. This would see Ukraine gaining an observer-like status during European Council summits and in European Parliament committees, while it completes the reforms needed for full membership privileges. “It’s true we want [a] fast track for membership,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a press conference in Kyiv on Tuesday, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. “2027 is very important for us and, I hope, realistic so that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin cannot block our membership for decades,” Zelenskyy said. He added that Kyiv was trying to avoid the fate of its bid to join NATO, which is now effectively off the table as a result of Washington’s opposition. The thinking is that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will not allow Kyiv’s bid to progress before April’s ballot because he has made opposition to Ukraine a key element of his reelection campaign. But Orbán may dial back his opposition if he manages to win another term, particularly if pushed to do so by Trump, according to one EU diplomat and a Ukrainian official. Both were granted anonymity to speak freely. If Orbán loses the Hungarian ballot, both Brussels and Kyiv perceive an opening under Péter Magyar, the opposition leader who is ahead in the polls. The EU diplomat said that while Magyar has made critical statements about Ukraine, he nonetheless appears to want to work more “constructively” with Brussels and could be motivated by the desire to have frozen EU funds for Hungary released. That could be enough of an incentive for him to lift Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU bid. If it isn’t, the U.S. administration could be called on to exert pressure — if Trump still wants to play dealmaker. “You can rely on the European Union — we will be on your side as long as it takes,” European Council President António Costa told Zelenskyy at Tuesday’s press conference. “We are committed to building a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine within the European Union.” THE PROBLEM WITH ‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES’ The worry in Kyiv is that, if talks drag out and Trump loses interest in a peace deal, “as long as it takes” could mean Ukraine is locked out of the bloc until after the next EU election in 2029, or even later, according to the Ukrainian official. Brussels and Kyiv are also looking ahead to the April 2027 French presidential election, in which the far-right National Rally, which has been Kremlin-friendly in the past, is ahead in the polls. The fear is that if Marine Le Pen’s party wins the presidency before Ukraine is offered a place inside the EU, it could block membership for Kyiv. However, full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said. Speaking on Tuesday alongside Zelenskyy and Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that while she understood that “a clear date” is “important” for Zelenskyy, when it comes to the EU, “dates by themselves [without completing reforms] are not possible.” Full EU membership for Ukraine before 2027 is off the table, a senior EU official said. | John Thys/AFP via Getty Images As Ukraine continues trying to convince member countries that it will meet the criteria to join the EU imminently, talk is also turning to ways for Brussels to update the process to match the current geopolitical moment. “I have had many meetings where we have been discussing now how we could accelerate the Ukrainian path to the European Union,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told POLITICO, before cautioning: “Without doing the reforms, nothing will be possible.” But, Kos added: “We have to have a broader discussion with the European Union among the member states about the methodology of the accession process, which is not suitable anymore for the times we are living in. You know this methodology is good for peace, it is good when we have time.” If the EU fails to adapt, it risks pushing potential EU members toward the Kremlin and its allies, she said. “If we will not be able to integrate our candidates into the EU shortly, then there is a danger that someone else will be more influential in those countries and using them against us, weaponizing [them],” Kos said.

Want to get a sense of how the next French presidential vote will play out? Then pay attention to the upcoming local elections. They start in 50 days, and voters in more than 35,000 communes will head to the polls to elect city councils and mayors. Those races will give an important insight into French politics running into the all-important 2027 presidential contest that threatens to reshape both France and the European Union.  The elections, which will take place over two rounds on March 15 and March 22, will confirm whether the far-right National Rally can cement its status as the country’s predominant political force. They will also offer signs of whether the left is able to overcome its internal divisions to be a serious challenger. The center has to prove it’s not in a death spiral. POLITICO traveled to four cities for an on-the-ground look at key races that will be fought on policy issues that resonate nationally such as public safety, housing, climate change and social services. These are topics that could very well determine the fortunes of the leading parties next year. FRANCE IN MINIATURE Benoit Payan, Franck Allisio, Martine Vassal and Sébastien Delogu | Source photos via EPA and Getty Images MARSEILLE — France’s second city is a microcosm of the nationwide electoral picture. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. Though Marseille has long struggled with crime, a surge in violence tied to drug trafficking in the city and nationwide has seen security rocket up voters’ priority list. In Marseille, as elsewhere, the far right has tied the uptick in violence and crime to immigration. The strategy appears to be working. Recent polling shows National Rally candidate Franck Allisio neck-and-neck with incumbent Benoît Payan, who enjoys the support of most center-left and left-wing parties. Trailing them are the center-right hopeful Martine Vassal — who is backed by French President Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance — and the hard-left France Unbowed candidate Sébastien Delogu, a close ally of three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Those four candidates are all polling well enough to make the second round. That could set up an unprecedented and unpredictable four-way runoff to lead the Mediterranean port city of more than 850,000 people. A National Rally win here would rank among the biggest victories in the history of the French far right. Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio, describing the city as a “a symbol of France’s divisions” and slamming Payan for “denying that there is a connection between immigration and insecurity.” Party leader Marine Le Pen traveled to Marseille herself on Jan. 17 to stump for Allisio. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images The center-right candidate Vassal told POLITICO said she would increase security by recruiting more local police and installing video surveillance. But she also regretted that Marseille was so often represented by its struggles. “We’re always making headlines on problems like drug trafficking … It puts all the city’s assets and qualities to the side and erases everything else which goes on,” Vassal said. Payan, whose administration took over in 2020 after decades of conservative rule, has tried to tread a line that is uncompromising on policing while also acknowledging the roots of the city’s problems require holistic solutions. He’s offered to double the number of local cops as part of a push for more community policing and pledged free meals for 15,000 students to get them back in school. Marseille’s sprawl is comprised of poorer, multicultural areas, middle-to-upper-class residential zones and bustling, student-filled districts. All make up the city’s unique fabric. | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images Delogu is the only major candidate not offering typical law-and-order investments. Though he acknowledges the city’s crime problems, he proposes any new spending should be on poverty reduction, housing supply and the local public health sector rather than of more security forces and equipment. Crime is sure to dominate the debate in Marseille. This election will test which of these competing approaches resonates most in a country where security is increasingly a top concern. LATEST POLLING: Payan 30 percent – Allisio 30 percent- Vassal 23 percent – Delogu 14 percent CAN A UNITED LEFT BLOCK A FAR-RIGHT TAKEOVER? Julien Sanchez, Franck Proust and Julien Plantier | Source photos via Getty Images NÎMES — Nîmes’ stunningly well-preserved second-century Roman amphitheater attracts global superstars for blockbuster concerts. But even the glamour of Taylor Swift or Dua Lipa can’t hide the recent scares in this city of more than 150,000 people. Nîmes has in recent years suffered from violence tied to drug trafficking long associated with Marseille, located just a short train ride away. Pissevin, a high-rise neighborhood just a 15-minute streetcar ride from the landmark amphitheater, seized national headlines in 2024 when 10-year-old was killed by a stray bullet in a case that remains under investigation but which prosecutors believe was linked to drug trafficking. “Ten to 15 years ago, a lot of crime came from petty theft and burglaries. But some of the population in underprivileged areas, looking for economic opportunities, turned to the drug trade, which offered a lot more money and the same amount of prison time if they were caught,” said Salim El Jihad, a Nîmes resident who leads the local nongovernmental organization Suburban. The Nimes amphitheatre and Pissevin / Source photos via Getty Images The National Rally is betting on Nîmes as a symbolic pickup. The race is shaping up to be a close three-way contest between Communist Vincent Bouget, the National Rally’s Julien Sanchez and conservative Franck Proust, Nîmes’ deputy mayor from 2016 to 2020. Bouget — who is backed by most other left-wing parties, including moderate forces like the Socialist Party — told POLITICO that while security is shaping up to be a big theme in the contest, it raises “a broader question around social structures.” “What citizens are asking for is more human presence, including public services and social workers,” Bouget said. Whoever wins will take the reins from Jean-Paul Fournier, the 80-year-old conservative mayor who has kept Nîmes on the right without pause for the past quarter century. But Fournier’s decision not to seek another term and infighting within his own party, Les Républicains, have sharply diminished Proust’s chances of victory. Proust may very well end splitting votes with Julien Plantier, another right-leaning former deputy mayor, who has the support of Macron’s Renaissance. Sanchez, meanwhile, is appealing to former Fournier voters with pledges to bolster local police units and with red scare tactics. “Jean-Paul Fournier managed to keep this city on the right for 25 years,” Sanchez said in his candidacy announcement clip. “Because of the stupidity of his heirs, there’s a strong chance the communists and the far left could win.” LATEST POLLING: Bouget 28 percent – Sanchez 27 percent- Proust 22 percent THE LAST GREEN HOPE That was also a clear swipe at Pierre Hurmic’s main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. | Source photos via Getty Images BORDEAUX — Everyone loves a Bordeaux red. So can a Green really last in French wine country? Pierre Hurmic rode the green wave to Bordeaux city hall during France’s last nationwide municipal elections in 2020. That year the Greens, which had seldom held power other than as a junior coalition partner, won the race for mayor in three of France’s 10 most populous cities — Strasbourg, Lyon and Bordeaux — along with smaller but noteworthy municipalities including Poitiers and Besançon. Six years later, the most recent polling suggests the Greens are on track to lose all of them. Except Bordeaux. Green mayors have faced intense scrutiny over efforts to make cities less car-centric and more eco-friendly, largely from right-wing opponents who depict those policies as out of touch with working-class citizens who are priced out of expensive city centers and must rely on cars to get to their jobs. The view from Paris is that Hurmic has escaped some of that backlash by being less ideological and, crucially, adopting a tougher stance on crime than some of his peers. Notably, Hurmic decided to arm part of the city’s local police units — departing from some of his party’s base, which argues that firearms should be reserved for national forces rather than less-experienced municipal units. In an interview with POLITICO, Hurmic refused to compare himself to other Green mayors. He defended his decision to double the number of local police, alongside those he armed, saying it had led to a tangible drop in crime. “Everyone does politics based on their own temperament and local circumstances,” he said. Hurmic insists that being tough on crime doesn’t mean going soft on climate change. He argues the Greens’ weak polling wasn’t a backlash against local ecological policies, pointing to recent polling showing 63 percent of voters would be “reluctant to vote for a candidate who questions the ecological transition measures already underway in their municipality.” Pursuing a city’s transition on issues like mobility and energy is all the more necessary because at the national level, “the state is completely lacking,” Hurmic said, pointing to what he described as insufficient investment in recent budgets. That was also a clear swipe at his main opponent — pro-Macron centrist Thomas Cazenave — who spent a year as budget minister from 2023 to 2024. Cazenave has joined forces with other center-right and conservative figures in a bid to reclaim a city that spent 73 years under right-leaning mayors, two of whom served as prime minister — Alain Juppé and Jacques Chaban-Delmas. But according Ludovic Renard, a political scientist at the Bordeaux Institute of Political Science, Hurmic’s ascent speaks to how the city has changed. “The sociology of the city is no longer the same, and Hurmic’s politics are more in tune with its population,” said Renard. LATEST POLLING: Hurmic 32 percent – Cazenave 26 percent – Nordine Raymond (France Unbowed) 15 percent – Julie Rechagneux (National Rally) 13 percent – Philippe Dessertine (independent) 12 percent GENTRIFICATION AND THE FUTURE OF THE LEFT Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” | Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images SAINT-OUEN-SUR-SEINE — The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. The Parisian suburb of Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine, which borders the French capital, is a case study in the waves of gentrification that have transformed the outskirts of major European cities. Think New York’s Williamsburg, London’s Hackney or Berlin’s Neukölln. Saint-Ouen, as it’s usually called, has long been known for its massive flea market, which draws millions of visitors each year. But the city, particularly its areas closest to Paris, was long seen as unsafe and struggled with entrenched poverty. The future of the French left could be decided on the grounds of the former Olympic village. | Mustafa Yalcin/Anadolu via Getty Images That changed over time, as more affluent Parisians began moving into the well-connected suburb in search of cheaper rents or property. A 2023 report from the local court of auditors underlined that “the population of this rapidly growing municipality … has both a high poverty rate (28 percent) and a phenomenon of ‘gentrification’ linked to the rapid increase in the proportion of executives and higher intellectual professions.” Mayor Karim Bouamrane, a Socialist, has said the arrival of new, wealthier residents and the ensuing gentrification could be a net positive for the city, as long as “excellence is shared.” Bouamrane has also said he would continue pushing for the inclusion of social housing when issuing building permits, and for existing residents not to be displaced when urban renewal programs are put in place. His main challenger, France Unbowed’s Manon Monmirel, hopes to build enough social housing to make it 40 percent of the city’s total housing stock. She’s also pledged to crack down on real estate speculation. The race between the two could shed light on whether the future of the French left lies in the center or at the extremes. In Boumrane, the Socialists have a charismatic leader. He is 52 years old, with a beat-the-odds story that lends itself well to a national campaign. His journey from child of Moroccan immigrants growing up in a rough part of Saint-Ouen to city leader certainly caught attention of the foreign press in the run-up to the Olympics. Bouamrane’s moderate politics include a push for his party to stop fighting Macron’s decision to raise the retirement age in 2023 and he supports more cross-partisan work with the current center-right government. That approach stands in sharp contrast to the ideologically rigid France Unbowed. The party’s firebrand leader Mélenchon scored 51.82 percent of the vote in Saint-Ouen during his last presidential run in 2022, and France Unbowed landed over 35 percent — more than three times its national average — there in the European election two years later, a race in which it usually struggles. Mélenchon and France Unbowed’s campaign tactics are laser-focused on specific segments that support him en masse despite his divisive nature: a mix of educated, green-minded young voters and working-class urban populations, often of immigrant descent. In other words: the yuppies moving to Saint-Ouen and the people who were their before gentrification. France Unbowed needs their continued support to become a durable force, or it may crumble like the grassroots movements born in the early 2010s, including Spain’s Podemos or Greece’s Syriza. But if the Socialists can’t win a left-leaning suburb with a popular incumbent on the ballot, where can they win?

BRUSSELS — Countries that have waited years to join the EU are divided over plans being drawn up in Brussels to let them become members without the customary full voting rights. Among the handful of nations in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans in line to join the bloc, a split is emerging over the conditions attached to their applications. Some insist they should get the bloc’s full benefits — whereas others are happy just to be around the table. To appease concerns from existing members that a bigger EU would make it harder to take unanimous decisions, the European Commission is mulling granting new members full voting rights only after the EU has overhauled the way it functions. The push would make it more difficult for individual countries to wield their vetoes and would stop policies from being derailed. At present, new members get full voting rights straightaway, as happened when the most recent country to join the EU, Croatia, entered in 2013. Among the powers that could initially be limited is the right of new entrants to block sanctions, among other issues that currently require every EU country to be on board. Navigating around veto threats from populist governments in Hungary and Slovakia has proven time-consuming for leaders. The prospect of joining without full voting rights is drawing mixed reactions from candidate countries. Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania — which has now opened all of the so-called negotiating clusters it will have to work through — told POLITICO the measures are a “good idea” and that his country would even accept for a period of time not having a commissioner of its own in Brussels. Albania, he said, did not want to challenge the will of big founding members such as France and Germany. “At the end, they are the adults in the family who make the important decisions,” he said, adding that one advantage for smaller EU members is that if the bigger countries “fuck up,” it’s not the new members’ fault. Salome Zourabichvili, the last directly elected president of Georgia, said she had long advocated such a move in discussions with EU officials. Her role was abolished by the ruling Georgian Dream party in a move decried by Brussels, and accession talks have now ground to a halt amid warnings of democratic backsliding. “As a small country, it’s very clear our interest is to be part of a community, of a family, and be part of the programs that make up the EU, and not at all to be an equal decision-maker as countries that have been at the origin of this organization and are much more powerful,” Zourabichvili told POLITICO. “I think it’s very logical if you want to have an organization that can take decisions efficiently.” Edi Rama, prime minister of Albania said the measures are a “good idea” and that his country would even accept for a period of time not having a commissioner of its own in Brussels. | Pool photo by Yoan Valat/EPA Moldova, whose membership application is twinned with that of Ukraine, has said it wants to see the details of the proposals. “We stand ready to assume responsibilities at an early stage and would welcome the opportunity to participate in, and help shape, these discussions,” said a senior Moldovan official, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “At the same time, full membership — with equal rights and full participation in EU decision-making — must remain the clear and ultimate objective.” Ukraine, which has conducted wide-ranging reforms as part of the accession process even as it faces Russia’s aggression, has been reluctant to support the idea. “If we speak about EU membership, it has to be fully-fledged,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in November. Montenegro, the candidate country most advanced on its accession path, also insists there is no need to revisit the terms under which it is granted membership, and expects to conclude the vetting process this year. “The fact is that the EU already consisted of 28 member states,” Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović told POLITICO. “And currently, we have 27 because of Brexit. So in that regard, if Montenegro becomes the 28th member state of the EU by 2028, then the answer [to whether there is a need for reforms] is no, right? … But this is definitely the question that should be answered by the EU leaders.” The plan regarding reduced voting rights was floated late last year by officials and pro-EU governments to breathe life into an expansion process that is also being blocked by Hungary and a few other capitals over fears it could bring unwanted competition for local markets or compromise security interests. Hungary has repeatedly threatened to veto Ukraine’s joining the EU. The EU’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, told POLITICO that concrete proposals will be put forward “in February or March.” She added that “a completely new element” is driving a new sense of urgency: “We have external destructive forces that would like to see us fail — they are working against our candidate countries, but we are the main target.” The plan will need to be developed in detail by the Commission before being presented to national leaders and likely discussed at future European Council summits, as well as assessed by lawyers to see how it fits in with the EU’s foundational treaties. While the candidates are deep into the reforms needed to become members of the bloc, Kos said there is still work to be done to convince existing members that sufficient safeguards will be in place. “Negotiations are a technical part; we have to consider the political part, which is the member states,” she said.

After nearly a year of political paralysis, Kosovo returns to the polls on Sunday in a vote that could determine if the country makes progress on its stalled path toward the European Union. A February election saw a clear winner, caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s ruling Self-Determination party, which picked up 42 percent of the vote. However, it failed to secure an absolute majority and then was unable to form a coalition with another party. Kurti’s party has pushed Kosovo into deeper isolation, as its left-wing populist approach and efforts to assert Kosovo’s sovereignty in the Serb-majority north have strained ties with both the U.S. and the EU, leading to punitive measures. A spokesperson for Kurti declined to comment for this article. None of the major opposition parties wanted to work with Self-Determination, nor did they approve of Kurti’s multiple attempts to nominate a speaker of parliament. Kurti even offered to give up his position as prime minister to assuage the opposition, but to no avail. That meant President Vjosa Osmani was forced to trigger a snap election in November, making it Kosovo’s seventh parliamentary ballot since it declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Ahead of Sunday’s vote, opposition parties such as the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) show no signs of changing their stance on Kurti. “LDK, PDK, and AAK see Kurti as a populist who has hampered relations with the West and sabotaged NATO membership and the EU integration process,” Haki Abazi, a parliamentary candidate for AAK, told POLITICO. Abazi was deputy prime minister under Kurti during his first term in 2019, but was later expelled from the party due to disagreements over political direction. “Kurti is seen as toxic and fragmenting,” said Abazi, adding that’s why none of the three parties will form a coalition with the Self-Determination leader. There is a possibility that all three opposition parties could form a coalition to prevent another political deadlock, with Abazi calling such a scenario “very likely.” However, MP Blerta Deliu-Kodra from PDK told POLITICO that “it remains to be seen what the numbers will be” — although she expects a government to be formed without Kurti as prime minister. PDK candidate Hajdar Beqa told POLITICO that “Kurti’s government has seriously harmed Kosovo’s European integration process,” stressing the need for a new government to “return the country on a secure path toward the EU.” However, acting deputy foreign minister and Self-Determination candidate Liza Gashi told POLITICO that during Kurti’s mandate, the ruling party “strengthened democratic institutions, improved key economic indicators, expanded social protection, and governed with integrity and stability. [Self-Determination] enters these elections with a strong governing record and broad public support.” Meanwhile, Kosovo’s application for EU membership remains “in the drawers of the European Union,” Osmani said, speaking during an EU-Western Balkans Summit last week. The country applied in 2022, but little progress has been made since. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at the summit that the EU will lift 2023 sanctions against Kosovo over tensions in the Serb-majority north and unblock over €400 million in financial aid. But if the country fails to form a government again, Kosovo risks losing access to the bloc’s €6 billion Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, as it needs to deliver reforms to unlock the funding. “Kosovo already faces an uphill battle because of five non-recognizer [EU] states, and the country cannot afford another year lost to the politicians’ inability to do what they were elected for — provide solutions, not create problems,” said Besar Gërgi, an expert in European integration at the Group for Legal and Political Studies, a Kosovo think tank. Cyprus, Slovakia, Spain, Greece and Romania do not recognize Kosovo. When asked by POLITICO what to expect from Sunday’s election, Osmani expressed confidence that it would meet “the best democratic standards,” deliver swift results and allow for the rapid formation of government institutions. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said he hopes “for a big and significant victory” for Kosovo’s largest ethnic Serb party, Serb List, expecting that it will secure seats to “represent the interests of Serbs, not Albin Kurti.” Serbia still does not recognize Kosovo and refers to the state as ‘Kosovo and Metohija,’ its former name as a Serbian province. The EU has attempted to remediate relations between Kosovo and Serbia through the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue; however, despite years of talks, the intervention has produced few concrete results. Kosovo and Serbia signed a normalization agreement in 2023, which involves de facto mutual recognition of each other’s sovereignty. “We need to normalise relations with Serbia,” said Kurti in a recent interview with AFP. “But normalising relations with a neighboring authoritarian regime that doesn’t recognize you, that also doesn’t admit to the crimes committed during the war, is quite difficult,” he added. Kurti wants Serbia to “hand over Milan Radoičić,” a former Serb List politician who plotted a terrorist attack on northern Kosovo in 2023 that resulted in the death of a Kosovo policeman. Radoičić is wanted in Kosovo but is currently in Serbia.

The EU wanted to set the record straight Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Europe is a “decaying” group of countries ruled by “weak” leaders. Trump slammed Europe as poorly governed and failing to regulate migration in an interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns that aired Tuesday in a special episode of The Conversation podcast.  “I think they’re weak,” the Republican said, referring to the continent’s presidents and prime ministers, adding, “I think they don’t know what to do. Europe doesn’t know what to do.”  Asked by POLITICO to respond to Trump’s withering assessment, the European Commission’s Chief Spokesperson Paula Pinho mounted a spirited defense of Europe’s leaders.   “We are very pleased and grateful to have excellent leaders, starting with the leader in this house, president of the European Commission von der Leyen, who we are really proud of, who can lead us in the many challenges that the world is facing,” Pinho said.   Pinho also lauded the “many other leaders at the head of the 27 member states that are part of this European project, of this peace project, who are leading the EU with all the challenges that it is facing, from trade to war in our neighborhood.”  She added, “So let me use the opportunity to reiterate what is the sense of many of the millions of citizens in the EU: We are proud of our leaders.”  Europe has repeatedly come under attack from the Trump administration in recent days, with a U.S. national security manifesto suggesting the continent is in civilizational decline, and top officials lambasting the bloc for censorship after the Commission fined Elon Musk’s social media platform X €120 million for breaching transparency rules. 

Today, as the world reaches a critical juncture in the fight against HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria, the EU must choose: match scientific breakthroughs with political will and investment or retreat, putting two decades of hard-won progress at risk. Having saved over 70 million lives, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (the Global Fund) has proven what smart, sustained investment can achieve.  But the impact of its work — the lives protected, the life expectancy prolonged, the systems strengthened, the innovations deployed — is now under threat due to declining international funding.  > The real question is no longer whether the EU can afford to invest in the > Global Fund, but whether it can afford to let these hard-won gains unravel. The real question is no longer whether the EU can afford to invest in the Global Fund, but whether it can afford to let these hard-won gains unravel. Declining international funding, climate change, conflict and drug resistance are reversing decades of progress. HIV prevention is hampered by rising criminalization and attacks on key populations, with 1.3 million new infections in 2024 — far above targets. TB remains the deadliest infectious disease, worsened by spreading multidrug resistance, even in Europe. Malaria faces growing resistance to insecticides and drugs, as well as the impacts of extreme weather. Without urgent action and sustained investment, these threats could result in a dangerous resurgence of all three diseases. The stakes could not be higher  The Global Fund’s latest results reveal extraordinary progress. In 2024 alone: * 25.6 million people received lifesaving antiretroviral therapy, yet 630,000 still died of AIDS-related causes; * 7.4 million people were treated for TB, with innovations like AI-powered diagnostics reaching frontline workers in Ukraine; and * malaria deaths, primarily among African children under five, have been halved over two decades, with 2.2 billion mosquito nets distributed and ten countries eliminating malaria since 2020. Yet one child still dies every minute from this treatable disease.  What makes this moment unprecedented is not just the scale of the challenge, but the scale of the opportunity. Thanks to extraordinary scientific breakthroughs, we now have the tools to turn the tide:  * lenacapavir, a long-acting antiretroviral, offers new hope for the possibility of HIV-free generations; * dual active ingredient mosquito nets combine physical protection with intelligent vector control, transforming malaria prevention; and  * AI-driven TB screening and diagnostics are revolutionizing early detection and treatment, even in the most fragile settings. Some of these breakthroughs reflect Europe’s continued research and development and the private sector’s leadership in global health. BASF’s dual-active-ingredient mosquito nets, recently distributed by the millions in Nigeria, are redefining malaria prevention by combining physical protection with intelligent vector control. Delft Imaging’s ultra-portable digital X-ray devices are enabling TB screening in remote and fragile settings, while Siemens Healthineers is helping deploy cutting-edge AI software to support TB triage and diagnosis.  But they must be deployed widely and equitably to reach those who need them most. That is precisely what the Global Fund enables: equitable access to cutting-edge solutions, delivered through community-led systems that reach those most often left behind. A defining moment for EU Leadership The EU has a unique chance to turn this crisis into an opportunity. The upcoming G20 summit and the Global Fund’s replenishment are pivotal moments.  President Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Síkela can send a clear, unequivocal signal: Europe will not stop at “almost”. It will lead until the world is free of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria.  The Global Fund is a unique partnership that combines financial resources with technical expertise, community engagement and inclusive governance. It reaches those often left behind — those criminalized, marginalized or excluded from health systems.  > Even in Ukraine, amid the devastation of war, the Global Fund partnership has > ensured continuity of HIV and TB services — proof that smart investments > deliver impact, even in crisis. Its model of country ownership and transparency aligns with Africa’s agenda for health sovereignty and with the EU’s commitment to equity and human rights. Even in Ukraine, amid the devastation of war, the Global Fund partnership has ensured continuity of HIV and TB services — proof that smart investments deliver impact, even in crisis. The cost of inaction Some may point to constraints in the Multiannual Financial Framework. But history shows that the EU has consistently stepped up, even in difficult fiscal times. The instruments exist. What’s needed now is leadership to use them. Failure to act would unravel decades of progress. Resurgent epidemics would claim lives, destabilize economies and undermine global health security. The cost of inaction far exceeds the price of investment. For the EU, the risks are strategic as well as moral. Stepping back now would erode the EU’s credibility as champion of human rights and global responsibility. It would send the wrong message, at precisely the wrong time.  Ukraine demonstrates what is at stake: with Global Fund support, millions continue to receive HIV and TB services despite war. Cutting funding now would risk lives not only in Africa and Asia, but also in Europe’s own neighborhood. A call to action Ultimately, this isn’t a question of affordability, but one of foresight. Can the EU afford for the Global Fund not to be fully financed? The answer, for us, is a resounding no. We therefore urge the European Commission to announce a bold, multi-year financial commitment to the Global Fund at the G20.  This pledge would reaffirm the EU’s values and inspire other Team Europe partners to follow suit. It would also support ongoing reforms to further enhance the Global Fund’s efficiency, transparency and inclusivity. > Ultimately, this isn’t a question of affordability, but one of foresight. Can > the EU afford for the Global Fund not to be fully financed? The answer, for > us, is a resounding no. This is more than a funding decision. It is a moment to define the kind of world we choose to build: one where preventable diseases no longer claim lives, where health equity is a reality and where solidarity triumphs over short-termism. Now is the time to reaffirm Europe’s leadership. To prove that when it comes to global health, we will never stop until the fight is won.

Alexandru Munteanu was sworn in as Moldova’s prime minister on Saturday during a ceremony attended by President Maia Sandu and the speaker of parliament, Igor Grosu. Munteanu, a 61-year-old economist who has worked at the World Bank and Moldova’s National Bank, is taking political office for the first time to help lead his country’s push for EU membership. Moldova’s parliament appointed Munteanu as prime minister on Friday, after September’s elections gave Sandu’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) a decisive victory over its pro-Russian rivals. “We have a unique opportunity to become the government that will bring Moldova into the European Union,” Munteanu said on Friday before the vote of confidence. The newly elected prime minister won the backing of 55 of the 101 MPs. Sandu’s PAS cruised to victory in September, securing more than 50 percent of the votes over the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), which won 24.2 percent of the vote. The election was marred by what officials described as an “unprecedented” Russian hybrid interference campaign aimed at undermining Moldova’s pro-European drive through disinformation, vote-buying, and attempts to incite unrest, according to national security officials. “After years of having to manage multiple crises and challenges, starting today, we need a government that focuses more on development and completes Moldova’s transformation into a modern European state,” said Sandu in a statement after Munteanu’s swearing-in. “Before you stands a country that needs trust and results. I wish you strength, wisdom in your decisions, and unity in your actions. May it be an auspicious beginning, and may you have success in all you do for the good of the Republic of Moldova and its people,” said Sandu, addressing the new government’s Cabinet.

VELDHOVEN, Netherlands — Dutch politicians are in a bidding war to convince voters ahead of a general election that they can solve a national shortage of 400,000 homes. Most of them focus on one thing: build more. While Dutch political parties agree on the need for more housing, there’s disagreement on how to do it. The polling leader, far-right anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders, wants to raze the national public media campus and redevelop it into a residential neighborhood. GreenLeft-Labor wants to turn two airports into housing. And, in a country where more than a quarter of the land is below sea level, the progressive D66 party even wants to reclaim more land near Almere, a new town built in the 1970s. For Caroline van Brakel, a Christian Democrat in the town of Veldhoven where the housing crunch is especially acute, there’s no need to close airports or create new islands to solve the Netherlands’ space issue. “We’re building 400 new houses per year, while it used to be below 200,” Van Brakel told POLITICO this month while standing on a building site opposite the headquarters of ASML, Europe’s most-valuable tech company and the world-leading maker of chip manufacturing machines. More housing can fit inside towns and cities, she thinks. Van Brakel is the housing councilor for Veldhoven, a town separated from Eindhoven by only a highway — and has an ambitious plan to transform their four joined villages into a proper city. A lot will need to squeeze in between the empty building site and the gleaming white towers of ASML. “The river is coming back in a green belt, there will be a rapid transit line to Eindhoven and 2,800 housing units,” she said. GETTING CROWDED Veldhoven lies in one of the country’s fastest-growing corners. With ASML as the main driver, Eindhoven’s “Brainport” region also includes other high-tech players, an automotive campus and one of the Netherlands’ three technical universities. The polling leader, far-right anti-immigration politician Geert Wilders, wants to raze the national public media campus and redevelop it into a residential neighborhood. | John Beckmann/Getty Images Almost every region of the Netherlands faces a severe housing crisis. Farmers across the kingdom — the second-largest agricultural exporter globally — might need to be bought out because there is too much nitrogen in the air. Nitrogen pollution from animal farming is another issue that where consecutive governments have failed to make the necessary changes. The electricity network is congested, the armed forces need more space and distribution centers have “boxed up” the flat landscape for years. The Netherlands is already the most densely populated country in Europe (besides tiny states like Malta). Its population of 18 million is forecast to reach 19 million by 2037. And across Europe, twin crises of housing availability and affordability make up significant pressure points on politicians, both at national and EU levels. Property prices in the Netherlands have almost quadrupled over the last 30 years, while wages have only doubled. In recent research by pollster Gallup, satisfaction with the availability of affordable housing plummeted from 65 percent to 29 percent between 2017 and now. Of people aged 15 to 29, only 14 percent were satisfied. Home-hunters making just above minimum wage can no longer afford buy their own four walls — but also earn too much to qualify for social housing, which long made up the lion’s share of all dwellings in the country. Reflecting a Europe-wide trend, the share of one-person households is rising. More seniors are being pushed to stay at home for as long as possible due to the cost of residential care, keeping high-quality houses occupied for longer. Finally, lax rules that allow investors to speculate on real estate add to the problem. Because the issues are so tangled up, easy solutions won’t cut it. However, “No single party is genuinely considered as owning the issue” of housing, said Asher van der Schelde, senior researcher at polling company Ipsos I&O. That’s not for lack of trying. “They all make roughly the same point, namely: We need to build many more homes,” he said. Wilders’ one-man Freedom Party is expected to top next week’s polls. The Christian Democrats (CDA), GreenLeft-Labor and liberals of D66 are all vying for second place. After Wilders blew up the last government, however, all the mainstream parties vowed to steer clear of him — complicating the task of forming a new government. THE NETHERLANDS NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. EXPANDING INWARDS One of the buyers of an apartment opposite ASML, a 24-year-old project manager at the company called Bart, said he preferred a two-year wait for a new apartment over buying an overpriced house in need of renovation. “Rents are very high here, and existing housing seems totally full. But most people need to find something right now, so they cannot wait for new projects,” said Bart, who declined to give his last name. Veldhoven lacks a train station, meaning there’s lots of traffic around ASML amid an unusually car-friendly townscape. Van Brakel explained the municipality will receive funding from The Hague for its express bus connection to Eindhoven. But to make that line feasible, the narrow band between ASML and the old town square of Veldhoven, small- and medium-sized enterprises will need to make way for a whole new neighborhood. This reflects the long-standing Dutch tradition of “inbreiden,” or “in-panding” (as opposed to expanding) within town limits instead of pushing into precious green areas. “The countryside mosaic needs to be protected,” Van Brakel added. “A few big cities — but otherwise, smaller towns and green between the villages.” PATIENCE REQUIRED Veldhoven’s new apartment buildings have a long process behind them, with construction only starting now — seven years after the first permit requests. Including this October’s, three national elections have taken place in that period. The housing shortage has only increased since, with prices rising at record speed in 2021. “Politics can barely keep up with technology and the economy these days,” said Leiden University philosophy lecturer Bart Zantvoort. If elections keep occurring every two years, there is less time to change policy — and less incentive for politicians to sketch long-term horizons. “Citizens are often unwilling to accept the slowness inherent in democratic politics, creating more dissatisfaction,” he said, acknowledging that this might explain why most of Wilders’ voters continue to support him even after he blew up the coalition government last summer. Other parties don’t seem to have a clear counternarrative, instead adopting Wilders-style tactics like scrapping airports or farmland in favor of housing. “All pigs in this country have a roof above their head — but a student or first-time buyer cannot even find an affordable broom cupboard,” D66 leader Rob Jetten said in a recent debate. “Nowadays, it becomes almost impossible to construct a political movement based on broad consensus,” said Zantvoort. He linked the testy political climate to increasing social polarization that is undermining the give-and-take that once characterized consensus politics in the Netherlands — and in pluralist parliamentary democracies across Europe. Back in Veldhoven, Bart says he bought his future apartment under an arrangement called duokoop, which involves also paying a small monthly rent for the land the building stands on. “That scares away the speculative investors,” he explained, adding that it also means the units are not all gone in a few days’ time. Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck and Eva Hartog contributed to this report.