Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Offiziell geht es um 75 Jahre diplomatische Beziehungen zwischen Deutschland und Kanada, tatsächlich aber um eine strategische Entscheidung mit weitreichenden Folgen: Kanada will bis zu zwölf neue U-Boote beschaffen. Im Rennen ist auch ein deutsch-norwegisches Modell – und damit ein möglicher sicherheitspolitischer Schulterschluss im Nordatlantik und in der Arktis. Im Gespräch mit Generalinspekteur Carsten Breuer und der Oberbefehlshaberin der kanadischen Streitkräfte Jennie Carignan wird deutlich, worum es wirklich geht: militärische Interoperabilität, dauerhafte Präsenz und Abschreckung in einer Region, die durch neue Seewege und geopolitische Konkurrenz immer wichtiger wird. Deutschland und Kanada stehen dabei bereits gemeinsam an der NATO-Ostflanke – in Litauen und Lettland. Doch die strategische Planung geht längst darüber hinaus: Sicherheit wird global gedacht, von Europa über den Indopazifik bis in die Arktis. Ein möglicher U-Boot-Deal wäre deshalb mehr als ein Exportgeschäft. Er wäre ein Signal für engere Zusammenarbeit, mehr militärische Verzahnung – und für eine NATO, die sich neu ausrichtet. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

PARIS — France will bolster its military presence in the Middle East after an Iranian counterattack hit a French naval base in the region. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking ahead of an emergency security and defense council Sunday evening, said France will “strengthen its [military] position and defensive support to stand alongside those with whom we have defense treaties and be able to adapt our stance to the developments of the last few hours.” Paris said Saturday it was not informed about or involved in the American and Israeli strikes on Iran. Macron initially called for diplomacy to resume — but his tone shifted after two Iranian drones hit a French naval base in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday. France, alongside Germany and the United Kingdom, announced in a statement Sunday evening that it would work with the U.S. and others to “defend our interests and those of our allies in the region.” That could include “enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran’s capability to fire missiles and drones at their source,” the statement said. BFMTV reported that France would divert its aircraft carrier from the Baltic Sea to the eastern Mediterranean, but two French officials have told POLITICO that wasn’t the case.

Denmark’s top military commander in the Arctic pushed back against claims that Greenland is facing an imminent security threat from Russia or China, undercutting a narrative repeatedly advanced by U.S. President Donald Trump. “No. We don’t see a threat from China or Russia today,” Major General Søren Andersen, commander of Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command in Greenland, said in an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, of which POLITICO is a part. “But we look into a potential threat, and that is what we are training for.” Andersen, who has headed the Joint Arctic Command since 2023, stressed that the stepped-up Danish and allied military activity around Greenland is not a response to an immediate danger, but preparation for future contingencies.  Once the war in Ukraine ends, he said, Moscow could redirect military resources to other regions. “I actually expect that we will see Russian resources that are being taken from the theater around Ukraine into other theaters,” Andersen said, pointing to the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region. That assessment has driven Denmark’s decision to expand exercises and invite European allies to operate in and around Greenland under harsh winter conditions, part of what Copenhagen has framed as strengthening NATO’s northern flank. Troops from several European countries have already deployed under Denmark’s Operation Arctic Endurance exercise, which includes air, maritime and land components. The remarks stand in contrast to Trump’s repeated claims that Greenland is under active pressure from Russia and China and his insistence that the island is vital to U.S. national security.  “In the meantime, you have Russian destroyers and submarines, and China destroyers and submarines all over the place,” Trump told reporters on Sunday about his pursuit to make Greenland part of the United States. “We’re not going to let that happen.” Trump has argued Washington cannot rule out the use of force to secure its interests, comments that have alarmed Danish and Greenlandic leaders. Andersen declined to engage directly with those statements, instead emphasizing NATO unity and longstanding cooperation with U.S. forces already stationed at Pituffik Space Base. He also rejected hypothetical scenarios involving conflict between allies, saying he could not envision one NATO country attacking another. Despite rising political tensions with Washington, Andersen said the United States was formally invited to participate in the exercise. “I hope that also that we will have U.S. troops together with German, France or Canadian, or whatever force that will train, because I think we have to do this together.”

A cargo ship that sailed from Russia was detained in the Gulf of Finland on Wednesday following damage to an underwater data cable linking Finland and Estonia. “A ship that was in the area at the time of the cable damage between Helsinki and Tallinn has been diverted to Finnish waters,” Prime Minister Petteri Orpo posted on X. “The government is closely monitoring the situation.” The Fitburg, which was under the flag of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, had departed St. Petersburg, Russia on Dec. 30 and was en route to Israel with crew from Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Telecoms provider Elisa notified authorities at 5 a.m. of a cable break in Estonia’s exclusive economic zone, which extends 200 nautical miles from its coast. Hours later a Finnish patrol vessel caught the Fitburg with its anchor in the water in Finland’s exclusive economic zone, the country’s coast guard reported. “At the moment we suspect aggravated disruption of telecommunications and also aggravated sabotage and attempted aggravated sabotage,” Helsinki police chief Jari Liukku told media. “Finland is prepared for security challenges of various kinds, and we respond to them as necessary,” President Alexander Stubb said on X. Earlier this year the NATO military alliance launched its “Baltic Sentry” program to stop attacks against subsea energy and data cables in the Baltic Sea that have multiplied following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The sabotage has included the severing of an internet cable between Finland and Germany in November 2024 and another between Finland and Sweden the following month. A July study by the University of Washington found that 10 subsea cables in the Baltic Sea had been cut since 2022. “A majority of these incidents have raised suspicions of sabotage by state actors, specifically Russia and China, who have been particularly active in the region,” the study noted.

Denmark’s military intelligence service has for the first time classified the U.S. as a security risk, a striking shift in how one of Washington’s closest European allies assesses the transatlantic relationship. In its 2025 intelligence outlook published Wednesday, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service warned that the U.S. is increasingly prioritizing its own interests and “using its economic and technological strength as a tool of power,” including toward allies and partners. “The United States uses economic power, including in the form of threats of high tariffs, to enforce its will and no longer excludes the use of military force, even against allies,” it said, in a pointed reference to Washington trying to wrest control of Greenland from Denmark. The assessment is one of the strongest warnings about the U.S. to come from a European intelligence service. In October, the Dutch spies said they had stopped sharing some intelligence with their U.S. counterparts, citing political interference and human rights concerns. The Danish warning underscores European unease as Washington leverages industrial policy more aggressively on the global stage, and highlights the widening divide between the allies, with the U.S. National Security Strategy stating that Europe will face the “prospect of civilizational erasure” within the next 20 years. The Danish report also said that “there is uncertainty about how China-U.S. relations will develop in the coming years” as Beijing’s rapid rise has eroded the U.S.’s long-held position as the undisputed global power. Washington and Beijing are now locked in a contest for influence, alliances and critical resources, which has meant the U.S. has “significantly prioritized” the geographical area around it — including the Arctic — to reduce China’s influence. “The USA’s increasingly strong focus on the Pacific Ocean is also creating uncertainty about the country’s role as the primary guarantor of security in Europe,” the report said. “The USA’s changed policy places great demands on armaments and cooperation between European countries to strengthen deterrence against Russia.” In the worst-case scenario, the Danish intelligence services predict that Western countries could find themselves in a situation in a few years where both Russia and China are ready to fight their own regional wars in the Baltic Sea region and the Taiwan Strait, respectively.

Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, the author of the award-winning “Goodbye Globalization” and a regular columnist for POLITICO. Russia’s shadow fleet just won’t go away. Countries in the Baltic Sea region have tried virtually every legal means of stopping this gnawing headache for every country whose waters have been traversed by these mostly dilapidated vessels — and yes, sinking them would be illegal. Now, these rust buckets are starting to cause an additional headache. Because they’re usually past retirement age, these vessels don’t last long before they need to be scrapped. This has opened a whole shadow trade that’s bound to cause serious harm to both humans and the environment. Earlier this month, the globally infamous Eagle S ship met its end in the Turkish port of Aliağa. The bow of the 229-meter oil tanker was on shore, its stern afloat, with cranes disassembling and moving its parts into a sealed area. The negative environmental impact of this landing method “is no doubt higher than recycling in a fully contained area,” noted the NGO Shipbreaking Platform on its website. But in the grand scheme of things, the Eagle S’s end was a relatively clean one. The 19-year-old Cook Islands-flagged oil tanker is a shadow vessel that had been transporting sanctioned Russian oil since early 2023. It then savaged an astonishing five undersea cables in the Gulf of Finland on Christmas Day last year, before being detained by the Finnish authorities. People are willing to own shadow vessels because they can make a lot of money transporting sanctioned cargo. However, as the tiny, elusive outfits that own them would struggle to buy shiny new vessels even if they wanted to, these ships are often on their last legs — different surveys estimate that shadow vessels have an average age of 20 years or more. Over the last few years, Russia’s embrace of the shadow fleet for its oil export has caused the fleet to grow dramatically, as tanker owners concluded they can make good money by selling their aging ships into the fleet. (They’d make less selling the vessels to shipbreakers.) Today, the shadow fleet encompasses the vast majority of retirement-age oil tankers. But after a few years, these tankers and ships are simply too old to sail, especially since shadow vessels undergo only the most cursory maintenance. To get around safely rules, less-than-scrupulous owners often sell their nearly dead ships to “final journey” firms, which have the sole purpose of disposing of them. | Ole Berg-Rusten/EPA For aged ships, the world of official shipping has what one might call a funeral process: a scrapping market. In 2024, 409 ships were scrapped through this official market, though calling it “official” makes it sound clean and safe, which, for the most part, it isn’t. A few of the ships scrapped last year were disassembled in countries like Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, which follow strict rules regarding human and environmental safety. A handful of others were scrapped in Turkey, which has an OK record. But two-thirds were scrapped in Southeast Asia, where the shipbreaking industry is notoriously unsafe. To get around safely rules, less-than-scrupulous owners often sell their nearly dead ships to “final journey” firms, which have the sole purpose of disposing of them. These companies and their middlemen then make money by selling the ships’ considerable amount of steel to metal companies. But in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh — the latter is the world’s most popular shipbreaking country — vessels are disassembled on beaches rather than sealed facilities, and by workers using little more than their hands. Of course, this makes the process cheap, but it also makes it dangerous. According to the NGO Shipbreaking Platform, last year, 15 South Asian shipbreaking workers lost their lives on the job and 45 were injured. Just one accident involving an oil tanker claimed the lives of six workers and injured another six. This brings us to the shadow fleet and its old vessels, as they, too, need to be scrapped. But many of them are under Western sanctions, which presents a challenge to their owners since international financial transactions are typically conducted in U.S. dollars. Initially, I had suspected that coastal nations would start finding all manner of shadow vessels abandoned in their waters and would be left having to arrange the scrapping. But as owners want to make money from the ships’ metal, this frightening scenario hasn’t come to pass. Instead, a shadow shipbreaking market is emerging. Open-source intelligence research shows that shadow vessel owners are now selling their sanctioned vessels to final-journey firms or middlemen in a process that mirror the official one. Given that these are mostly sanctioned vessels, the buyers naturally get a discount, which the sellers are more than willing to provide. After all, selling a larger shadow tanker for scrap value and making something to the tune of $10 to $15 million is more profitable than abandoning it. And how are the payments made? We don’t know for sure, but they’re likely in crypto or a non-U.S. dollar currency. These shady processes make the situation even more perilous for the workers doing the scrapping, not to mention for the environment. “Thanks to a string of new rules and regulations over the past five decades, shipping has become much safer, and that has reduced the number of accidents significantly in recent decades,” explained Mats Saether, a lawyer at the Nordisk legal services association in Oslo. “It’s regrettable that the shadow fleet is reversing this trend.” It certainly is. Indeed, the scrapping of shadow vessels is a practice that demands serious scrutiny. Greenpeace, Human Rights Watch and other NGOs could do a good deed for the environment and unfortunate shipbreaking workers by conducting investigations. And surely the Bangladeshi government wouldn’t want to see Bangladeshi lives lost because Russia needs oil for war? Greenpeace, Human Rights Watch and other NGOs could do a good deed for the environment and unfortunate shipbreaking workers by conducting investigations. | Ole Berg-Rusten/EPA There’s an opportunity here for Western governments to help too. They could offer shadow vessel owners legal leniency and a way to sell their ships back into the official fleet — if the owners provide the authorities with details about the fleet’s inner workings and vow to leave the business. Does that sound unlikely to succeed? Possibly. But that’s what people said about Italy’s pentiti system, and they were proven wrong. Besides, the shadow fleet is such a tumor on the shipping industry and the world’s waterways that almost any measure is worth a try.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music In dieser Spezialfolge des Berlin Playbook Updates berichtet Rixa Fürsen von der Berliner Sicherheitskonferenz – wo Generäle, Verteidigungsminister und sicherheitspolitische Entscheider Europas über Abschreckung, Aufrüstung und die Zukunft der NATO sprechen. Partnerland in diesem Jahr: Schweden. Rixa trifft Pål Jonson, den schwedischen Verteidigungsminister und spricht mit ihm über die historische Kehrtwende seines Landes, die neue Rolle als NATO-Mitglied und die strategische Bedeutung des Nordens. Es geht um die Lage in der Ostsee, russische Provokationen, klare Regeln für den Einsatz von Drohnen und darum, wie eng Deutschland und Schweden inzwischen sicherheitspolitisch verzahnt sind. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es morgens um 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team bringen euch jeden Morgen auf den neuesten Stand in Sachen Politik — kompakt, europäisch, hintergründig. Und für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Unser Berlin Playbook-Newsletter liefert jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Hier gibt es alle Informationen und das kostenlose Playbook-Abo. Mehr von Berlin Playbook-Host und Executive Editor von POLITICO in Deutschland, Gordon Repinski, gibt es auch hier:   Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine might lead to efforts to rekindle economic ties with Russia — including the restarting of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. As Europe faces the possibility of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Tusk described calls by European politicians to rebuild ties to Moscow at the eventual end of the war as “an alarm bell.” “[I know] it means that someone in Europe wants to restore Nord Stream 2, to have good business with oil and gas from Russia, and so on,” he said. “For me, it’s always like an alarm bell,” Tusk said in an interview with the Sunday Times. A major pipeline transporting gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, Nord Stream 2 is described by critics as a strategic mistake and a symbol of Europe’s appeasement to Moscow. The pipeline was blown up in 2022 after the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A Ukrainian professional diver was later arrested over his suspected involvement in the sabotage. “The problem with North Stream 2 is not that it was blown up. The problem is that it was built,” Tusk wrote on X social media earlier this month. In the Sunday Times interview, Tusk said that a Polish court ruling blocking a German extradition request for one of the suspects in the Nord Stream sabotage means that Ukraine has a right to attack Russia-linked targets anywhere in Europe. The Polish leader also berated Europe’s complacency and its constant underrating of Putin’s expansionist threats. “We are talking about the end of the era of illusions in Europe — too late, I’m afraid. Too late to be well prepared for all the threats, but not too late to survive,” Tusk said. Also in the interview, Tusk described Britain’s exit from the EU as “one of the biggest mistakes in our [shared European] history”— 10 years after U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s ill-fated attempt to use the Brexit referendum as leverage to extract concessions from the EU. “And today I think it’s much more visible,” said Tusk, who was well-steeped in the first phase of the Brexit negotiations as president of the European Council at the time.  “Especially after Brexit, Poles realized that the objective situation in the U.K. is not much better than in Poland. I also know that Brits are starting to leave the U.K. and begin a life here in Poland,” he said.

A Helsinki court ruled Friday that it didn’t have jurisdiction over damage to undersea power and data cables in the Gulf of Finland allegedly caused by the captain and two officers of the Russia-linked oil tanker Eagle S. “The District Court has today issued a judgment dismissing the charge in the case … along with the claims for damages arising from the charge, as it was not possible to apply Finnish criminal law to the case,” the court said in a statement. Finland had filed criminal charges in August against Captain Davit Vadatchkoria and officers Robert Egizaryan and Santosh Kumar Chaurasia of the suspected shadow fleet ship Eagle S sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, accusing them of damaging five telecom cables in the Gulf of Finland last December with the vessel’s anchor. Prosecutors sought prison terms of more than two years, warning the incident could have sparked blackouts and power price spikes. The incident fueled calls to crack down on Russia’s “shadow fleet” and prompted NATO to step up seabed patrols following a string of cable disruptions in the region. The trial was also seen as a test case for holding actors accountable for attacks on critical seabed infrastructure. But it collapsed over maritime law provisions and doubts about intent. The court sided with the defense, ruling the damage occurred outside Finnish jurisdiction and ordering the state to reimburse the legal fees of the defendants. Judges acknowledged the cable breaks caused economic damage to Finnish firms, but said the risk of widespread blackouts was unlikely as it required “other serious disturbances” alongside extreme weather. The three defendants, who denied any wrongdoing, were barred from leaving Finland for nine months but departed in September after their travel ban was lifted.

PARIS — The French military on Wednesday arrested two crew members on a tanker suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet and of having been involved in drone disturbances in Denmark last week, according to the French prosecutor’s office. French military personal boarded the Boracay, a Benin-flagged tanker that is suspected of being used by Russia to bypass EU sanctions, according to pictures taken by the AFP news agency. The tanker is also suspected of having served as a launchpad for the drones seen in Denmark last week ahead of an EU leaders’ summit in Copenhagen. The Boracay was positioned more than 50 kilometers outside the Port of Saint-Nazaire on Wednesday after travelling from the Russian Port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, according to shipping data checked by POLITICO. The two crew members, the captain and his deputy, were arrested on charges of refusing to obey a summons and failing to justify the ship’s nationality, according to the prosecutor’s office. Discussions between EU leaders in Copenhagen Oct. 1 were dominated by Russia drone incursions against EU countries and a proposal by the European Commission to create a “drone wall” on its eastern frontier in response to the sightings. Speaking after the arrests, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she couldn’t comment on “specific investigations” but noted that countries were “facing lots of problems with the shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea.” On Wednesday morning, French President Emmanuel Macron said “a very important operation” was ongoing in relation to the Boracay. “There were very important offenses committed by the crew which justify the legal proceedings,” he said on arrival at the summit. Macron refrained, however, from linking the ship to the drone sightings. According to the Guardian, the Kremlin said on Wednesday it had no information about a ship suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet off the coast of France. Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting.