BRUSSELS — EU ambassadors are close to a deal on a €90 billion loan to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia thanks to a draft text that spells out the participation of third countries in arms deals, three diplomats said Wednesday. The ambassadors are scheduled to meet on Wednesday afternoon to finalize talks after a week of difficult negotiations. The final hurdle was deciding how non-EU countries would be able to take part in defense contracts financed by the loan. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, would allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from such countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. wants to take part in procurement deals beyond that, it will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The text also mentions that the British contribution — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional with the potential gains of its defense firms taking part in the scheme.  France led the effort to ensure that EU countries — which are paying the interest on the loan — gain the most from defense contracts. In an effort to get Paris and its allies on board, the draft circulated late Tuesday includes new language which says that “any agreement with a third country must be based on a balance of rights and obligations,” and also that “a third country should not have the same rights nor enjoy the same benefits,” as participating member states. The draft also strengthens the control of EU countries over whether the conditions to buy weapons for Ukraine outside the bloc have been met, saying Kyiv will have to “provide the information reasonably available to it demonstrating that the conditions for the application of this derogation are met.” That will then be checked  “without undue delay” by the European Commission after consultation with a new Ukraine Defence Industrial Capacities Expert Group. The new body will include representatives from EU members countries, according to diplomats. The European Commission will raise €90 billion in debt to fund Ukraine’s war effort before Kyiv runs out of cash in April. After facing intense pressure from national capitals, the Commission agreed to deploy unused funds in its current seven-year budget to cover the borrowing costs. If that is not enough, member countries will have to pay the difference. Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin will meet the European Parliament and the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU on Thursday in an attempt to solve disagreements on the repayment of the borrowing costs, said one official.

Czechia will go ahead with the purchase of 24 American F-35 fighter jets but is seeking to improve the conditions of the deal, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said on Thursday. “We will definitely want to work on this and improve the contract, because the project is at such a stage that it must continue,” Babiš told journalists following a visit to Čáslav air base. “I certainly see a great opportunity to improve the terms of the contract, especially in terms of financing and, of course, in terms of budgeting regarding exchange rate differences,” he added. The deal to purchase the jets was agreed to by Czechia’s previous government, led by Petr Fiala, in 2023. Babiš and his right-wing populist party ANO campaigned on criticism of deal, calling the jets “useless and overpriced,” and vowed to reconsider the agreement. His post-election statements, however, indicated a more pragmatic approach. The decision is likely to come as good news to U.S. President Donald Trump, who pressured Babiš to move ahead with the deal shortly after his inauguration in December. “Andrej knows how to get deals done, and I expected incredible things from him, including on F-35s. Congratulations Andrej!” Trump said in a Dec. 17 post on social media.

Switzerland will raise its value-added tax rate for a decade to boost defense spending, its government announced today. “In view of the deteriorating geopolitical situation, the Federal Council wants to substantially strengthen Switzerland’s security and defense capabilities,” the statement reads. “To this end, additional resources in the order of 31 billion Swiss francs [€33 billion] are required.” The Council plans to temporarily raise VAT by 0.8 percent from the current 8.1 percent for 10 years, as of 2028. The additional revenues will be allocated to an armament fund that will also have borrowing capacity. However, raising the VAT requires a change in the constitution and a public consultation will open in the spring. Switzerland has been rethinking its defense stance since Russia’s attack on Ukraine almost four years ago. It is looking for more military cooperation with European nations and ramping up its rearmament, although it still has no intention of joining NATO. Switzerland spends about 0.7 percent of its GDP on defense, one of the lowest rates in Europe. The current goal of boosting that to 1 percent by 2032 is now out of date, the Federal Council said. “Due to the savings made in recent decades, the armed forces are also insufficiently equipped, particularly to effectively repel the most likely threats, namely long-range attacks and hybrid conflicts,” the statement added. Priorities for the country’s armament push include short- and medium-range air defense systems, cybersecurity and electromagnetic capabilities.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Die Bundeswehr steht vor einer folgenreichen Beschaffungsentscheidung: Für rund 900 Millionen Euro sollen neue Kampf- und Kamikaze-Drohnen angeschafft werden. Doch kurz vor der Entscheidung im Haushaltsausschuss wachsen die Zweifel, vor allem an der Helsing HX-2 Drone. Ein interner Bericht aus der Ukraine stellt die Trefferquote und Sicherheit eines Systems massiv infrage. Im Gespräch mit Lars Petersen Leiter der National Investigation Premium-Gruppe geht es um technische Schwächen, Preisunterschiede von 20.000 bis 60.000 Euro pro Drohne und das Risiko von Fehlzündungen. Außerdem: Warum die Bundeswehr diesmal auf mehrere Hersteller setzt, wie die Qualifizierungsphase ablaufen soll und was passiert, wenn ein System durchfällt. Zum Artikel von Lars Petersen bei Business Insider hier. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet next Sunday in Abu Dhabi for a new round of peace talks, U.S. officials said Saturday, after two days of meetings in the city this week failed to produce concrete results. This week’s meetings, the first time all three countries sat face-to-face for talks to try and hash out a ceasefire, touched on economic and military issues, as well as disputes over how much Ukrainian territory Russia will continue to hold after the war, said two U.S. officials. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic issues. It’s not clear at this point who from the three governments will be involved in next week’s talks. Hours after the talks broke for the day on Friday, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine so far this year, killing civilians and plunging much of the country into darkness during an overnight attack. Attacks on civilian targets and infrastructure have been a hallmark of the Russian reaction to months of talks. They have intensified in recent weeks as Ukraine faces one of its coldest winters in years. “These talks were about deescalation,” one of the U.S. officials said. Despite the continued Russian attacks — and two unprovoked invasions by Russian forces into Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 — the official said: “President Putin said unequivocally that he wants to see a diplomatic settlement of this deal … and, you know, we want to take him at his word.” The meetings in Abu Dhabi were led by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who met in Switzerland with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week before heading to Moscow to huddle with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They capped the week with meetings with both sides, where they were joined by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and the head of the European Command and NATO forces, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich. One of the big sticking points in the negotiations has been Western security guarantees for Ukraine in any post-war scenario. European countries have pushed for a small troop presence in Ukraine to monitor a ceasefire, with France and Germany leading the push to send troops. President Donald Trump has said the U.S. won’t put boots on the ground in Ukraine but will help. Defense officials have said that American commitment would likely involve satellite and intelligence support, some drone flights to monitor the line of separation, and logistics support. A second U.S. official on Saturday appeared to dismiss those early European commitments, noting it is the American security guarantee that is most critical: “The Coalition of the Willing efforts are nice. They had a couple helicopters and a couple troops and a couple guarantees here and there, but if you speak to the Ukrainians, it’s really the American security guarantees that matter.” The U.S. officials said a big part of this week’s talks focused on economics, as well as who controls Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is being occupied by Russian forces. There was no agreement, but the push — favored by Moscow — is for Ukraine and Russia to share the electric output from that plant, which is the largest in Europe. “Both parties are starting to envision what they can gain from peace, like the prosperity plan for Ukraine, some of these opportunities for Russia to do business deals with the United States of America,” the second official said. “There’s obviously not a lot of trust right now between Europe and Russia, but we want to create a framework where that can start a new paradigm that can start building trust by showing real de-escalation.” Heading into the talks Witkoff said only one issue — which Zelenskyy later said was territory — was left to be resolved. Russia has demanded it take all of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, even parts Ukraine still controls. Ukraine has resisted the demand, given the territory’s strategic importance to the country. Zelenskyy and Trump met this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where Zelenskyy delivered one of his most pessimistic and frustrated speeches to date, lambasting Europe for not taking its own security seriously enough. “Just last year, here in Davos, I ended my speech with the words: ‘Europe needs to know how to defend itself.’ A year has passed. And nothing has changed. We are still in a situation where I must say the same words again,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine, Russia and the United States concluded a second day of U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, which Kyiv described as “constructive” despite continued attacks by Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the two days of meetings in the United Arab Emirates — the first in trilateral format in years — focused on possible parameters for ending the war and the security guarantees required to make any agreement credible. “Our delegation delivered a report; the meetings in the UAE have concluded,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. “A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive.” The talks brought together senior military and intelligence officials from all three sides. Ukraine’s delegation included Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov; Russia was represented by members of its armed forces and military intelligence; and the U.S. delegation included President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and senior White House advisers. Zelenskyy said the U.S. side raised possible formats for formalizing any future settlement, as well as the need for American monitoring and oversight of a potential ceasefire or peace process. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders,” Zelenskyy said, adding that military representatives had identified issues for a potential follow-up meeting. Russia’s TASS news agency also reported that the talks produced results and could continue in the coming days. The diplomatic efforts unfolded against the backdrop of Moscow’s largest aerial assault on Ukraine so far this year. Ukrainian officials said hundreds of drones and missiles struck Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities overnight, killing at least one person and leaving millions without power and heat amid subzero temperatures. Zelenskyy said on Friday that it was “too early” to draw conclusions from the talks. He reiterated that Ukraine would not accept territorial concessions demanded by Moscow.

Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine so far this year overnight, killing civilians and plunging much of the country into darkness — just hours after Ukrainian, Russian and U.S. officials held trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces deliberately attacked while efforts at diplomacy were underway. “Cynically, Putin ordered a brutal massive missile strike against Ukraine right while delegations are meeting in Abu Dhabi to advance the America-led peace process,” Sybiha wrote on X. Moscow’s missiles “hit not only our people, but also the negotiation table,” he added. The Russian strikes hit Kyiv and Kharkiv hardest, Sybiha said, with dozens of ballistic and air-launched missiles and hundreds of drones used. He said Moscow again targeted energy infrastructure and residential areas, calling the assault further evidence that the Kremlin is waging “a genocidal war against civilian people.” Ukraine’s air force said Russia fired more than 370 drones and 21 missiles overnight, while other estimates put the total number of aerial weapons at nearly 400, including hypersonic, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Vitaliy Zaichenko, CEO of UkrEnergo, the state energy company, told local media that 80 percent of Ukraine will face emergency power outages on Saturday. Explosions were reported shortly after delegations from Kyiv, Moscow and Washington wrapped up the first round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi. The discussions in Abu Dhabi are expected to continue on Saturday. The talks brought together senior military and intelligence officials from Russia, top diplomats and security officials from Ukraine, and a U.S. delegation that includes President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and White House adviser Josh Gruenbaum. Ukraine’s lead negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said the discussions focused on achieving a “dignified and lasting peace,” adding that further meetings were scheduled. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky struck a more cautious tone, saying it was “too early” to draw conclusions and stressing that Russia must demonstrate a genuine willingness to end the war.

President Donald Trump said he will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday. The president’s meeting with Zelenskyy is scheduled to take place after a Gaza Board of Peace event in Davos and follows bilateral meetings on Wednesday with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the leaders of Poland, Belgium and Egypt. The president’s meeting comes amid an apparent standstill in negotiations. Russia has continued to pound Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with missiles and drones barrages. Electricity in Kyiv is inconsistent and with this winter turning into an exceptionally frigid one — with temperatures dropping below minus 20 degrees Celsius — there’s mounting worry in Kyiv about how the country can persevere without much greater assistance from Western allies, including the United States, when it comes to air defense. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner will travel to Moscow later Thursday, where they are scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. They will then go on to the United Arab Emirates for working groups. Asked whether Russia was serious about an agreement, Witkoff said Putin invited the pair to Moscow. “The Russians have invited us to come and that’s a significant statement from them,” Witkoff said in an interview with Bloomberg television in Davos on Wednesday. On Monday, the president said he invited Putin to join his Gaza Board of Peace, while the Russian military continues strikes on Kyiv. Trump and Zelenskyy emerged from their meeting at Mar-a-Lago in Florida last month expressing optimism that they were on the precipice of a peace deal to end the war with Russia. Trump said at the time that critical sticking points could be ironed out over a few more weeks. But, more recently, Trump, in an interview with Reuters, suggested Zelenskyy was an impediment to peace. Plans for the pair to meet at Davos have see-sawed. Initially, the U.S. and Ukraine eyed Davos as a venue to sign an economic deal meant to bring prosperity to the country after the war ends, according to two people familiar with the matter. One of them, a foreign official, said Ukraine is still ready to sign and it depends on the U.S. side.

Mark T. Kimmitt is a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and has also served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy. Despite the stern face portrayed on Iran’s government television, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is facing the most significant challenge to his legitimacy since assuming power in 1989. Indeed, the view from the supreme leader’s office Beit-e Rahbari must be quite parlous, with security forces gunning down peaceful protestors who took to the streets amid a collapsing economy, inflation out of control and a water catastrophe unseen in modern times. On top of that looms the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump, and the knowledge that Israel would be happy to assist in any move Washington might make. Even Khamenei’s recent outreach toward the U.S. — a tried-and-true method to buy time and diminish expectations — doesn’t seem to be working this time. But the ayatollah isn’t delusional, and must surely recognize he needs a lifeline. I believe he would do well to take one, and that Trump would do well to make such an offer. The recent U.S. operation in Venezuela is perhaps instructive here. The U.S. isn’t seeking a change in the Venezuelan regime, merely a change in its behavior, and is prepared to maintain the status quo. However, unlike the vague threat of drugs, sanctions-busting oil sales or longstanding Chavismo in America’s backyard, the threats from Iran are specific, existential and have been consistent over the years. A deal on those threats — Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, its missile program and its vast destabilizing proxy network — will be the terms of any perpetuation of the regime. And it must also include forgiveness for the protestors, protection of the right to peaceful future demonstrations, and the transparent prosecution of those responsible for killing unarmed civilians. For the U.S., airstrikes against key regime targets should be considered, as without a kinetic demonstration of resolve, the regime may believe it can withstand Washington’s rhetorical pressure. Strikes would also be an opportunity to bring the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its paramilitary Basij elements responsible for the killing of thousands of protestors to justice, and to again hit missile and nuclear targets still recovering from the blows they took back in June. But airstrikes also come with two major risks. The first is casualties and prisoners: Iran’s regime has a long history of hostage-taking, from the U.S. Embassy takeover in 1979 to the U.S. hostages incarcerated today. The risk of American troops rotting in Evin Prison is one Washington will want to avoid. Second, airstrikes risk retaliation on U.S. bases within range of Iran’s vast rocket, missile and terrorist networks. The June 2025 attack on Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar is a clear sign that Iran is able and willing to fire on the U.S., and in the current scenario a larger response and casualties should be expected. Now let’s look at the terms of a possible deal. Before anything else, Iran’s nuclear weapons development program must cease. Despite all the talks, deals and commitments over the years, Iran has been able to evade a system of inspection, verification and penalties to ensure it lives up to its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This must be the unequivocal baseline of any lifeline to the regime and a precondition for any further discussions. Next, the Iranian missile development program must also cease. For years, Iran has continued to produce long-range rockets and missiles at scale and proliferate them across the region. This allowed the Houthis to block the Red Sea and Hezbollah and Hamas to threaten and attack Israel, and it equipped the sanctioned Hashd factions in Iraq to attack U.S. units and threaten the elected government. So, again, any possible deal must call for inspection, verification and punitive actions in instances of violation. Lastly, the cancerous regional proxy network that Iran has armed, trained and equipped for a decade must be cut off from the country’s financial and military support. It must also be delinked from extrajudicial governance in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq. These proxies — Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis — have been defeated and deterred from continued activity since Oct. 7, 2024, but only for the moment. Without any formal termination of support, they will undoubtedly return. Once again, the message to Iran must be to break with the proxies or face punitive action. Without concrete movement on these three elements, Khamenei and his regime face a bleak future. Donald Trump has told Iranian protestors that “help is on the way.” | Dingena Mol/EPA But even if this set of conditions is offered, expect the regime to react in its normal manner: delay, deflect, deny — diplomatic tools that have been successfully used by brilliant Iranian negotiators over the years. This stratagem must be quickly brushed aside by America’s interlocutors, who won’t be there to please or appease but to impose. In short, such an offer from the U.S. would mean a perpetuation of the regime, relief from sanctions, help with runaway inflation, and assistance in facing a climate catastrophe. But it would also come at a cost and with a choice — for Khamenei, either a lifeline or a noose. In all of this, the Iranian leader would do well to consider Trump’s first term, when the U.S. took the feared Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani off the battlefield with a drone in 2020, as well as his ongoing second term, particularly the 12-day war of 2025 and the recent apprehension of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces. There’s plenty of room in Maduro’s wing at the Brooklyn Detention Center for IRGC Deputy Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi and his accomplice Esmail Qaani, or side by side with Soleimani. Moreover, Iran has yet to rebuild its air-defense network after its disembowelment last year, and it still has hundreds of military and infrastructure targets that U.S., Israeli and other coalition pilots are ready to attack. Khamenei would also do well to remember that even if the protest is put down by killings, its underlying causes — inflation, sclerotic social norms and crippling water rationing — will remain. Trump has told Iranian protestors that “help is on the way” — and that could be interpreted as an offer to the regime as well. But Khamenei must accept he faces a U.S. president who is willing to ignore decades of diplomatic niceties and one-sided concessions in favor of finishing the job of destroying Iran’s nuclear program. One can only hope wisdom carries the day at Beit-e Rahbari, and that finally this time is different.

France will boost its military presence in Greenland in the coming days, President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday, as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to ramp up pressure in his bid to annex the Danish territory. “An initial team of French soldiers is already on site and will be reinforced in the coming days by land, air and sea assets,” Macron told an audience of top military brass during his new year address to the armed forces. “France and Europeans must continue, wherever their interests are threatened, to be present without escalation, but uncompromising on respect for territorial sovereignty,” he added, speaking in Istres, an airbase in the south of France that hosts nuclear-capable warplanes. On Wednesday, several European nations including France, Germany, Sweden and Norway said they would send troops to Greenland to participate in a Danish military exercise, amid repeated threats by Trump that the U.S. could use force to seize the island. After a White House meeting on Wednesday, Denmark and Greenland “still have a fundamental disagreement” with the U.S., Denmark said. In an obvious jab at Trump, who he didn’t mention by name, Macron criticized “a new colonialism that is at work among some.” Europeans have the means to be less dependent on the U.S., he added, revealing that two-thirds of Ukraine’s intelligence capabilities are now provided by France. In an address to his Cabinet on Wednesday, Macron warned that if the United States seized Greenland from Denmark, it would trigger a wave of “unprecedented” consequences, a government spokesperson said. The French president convened a defense council meeting Thursday morning to discuss both the Iranian uprising and the situation in Greenland, POLITICO reported.  MORE MONEY FOR DEFENSE Macron started increasing defense spending again as soon as he was elected in 2017, even before Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine and NATO’s commitment to boost budgets. The French president confirmed that France would seek to increase defense spending by €36 billion between 2026 and 2030, adding he wants the updated military planning law to be voted by parliament by July 14. “This decade of French rearmament is bearing fruit … and rearmament efforts will continue,” he told the audience. However,  the military planning law has been delayed by France’s spiralling political crisis. It was initially scheduled for last fall and has already been put off several times. As well, the €6.7 billion boost for 2026 still hasn’t been approved by lawmakers, and it’s unclear whether (and when) the government will manage to convince MPs to pass this year’s budget. In another jab at Trump, Macron said Paris wasn’t increasing military expenditures to “please this or that ally, but based on our analysis of the threat.” That’s a reference to last year’s NATO decision to set a new defense spending target of 5 percent of GDP — following significant pressure from the U.S. president. The three main priorities for France’s spending boost are: to increase munition stocks; to develop sovereign capabilities in air defense, early warning systems, space and deep strikes; and to improve the ability of the armed forces to engage swiftly. “This year will be a test of credibility in many ways, and we are ready,” Macron said. SLAMMING THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY The French president, who has a history of shaking up the defense industry, also criticized the country’s military contractors — arguing some of them risked being “forced out of the market” for slow innovation and deliveries. “I want to ask even more of you. We need to produce faster, produce in volume, and further increase mass production with lighter systems and innovative methods,” Macron said. “I need an industry that does not consider the French armed forces as a captive customer. We may seek European solutions if they are faster or more efficient. We too must be more European in our own purchasing and in our industrial strategies.” The French state usually buys mostly French military equipment, but Paris is increasingly opening its wallet to other Europeans, most recently by signing a deal with Sweden’s Saab to purchase GlobalEye surveillance and control aircraft. France is also “late” when it comes to drones because French companies didn’t set up enough partnerships with Ukrainians and are now being overtaken by rivals, he said. Although he bashed France’s military industrial complex, Macron did pat Paris on the back for its long-standing skepticism of relying too much on the U.S. and its calls for strategic autonomy and a European pillar within NATO. “What was initially a French conviction in the face of the evolving threat has become obvious for Europeans,” Macron told the audience. “We were right to start, even on our own.”