Probably not since Margaret Thatcher was in office have EU leaders been so outraged with one of their peers as they were last week when Victor Orbán again blocked a critical €90 billion loan to fund Ukraine’s war effort. Admittedly, the language wasn’t quite as colorful as sometimes used about Britain’s Iron Lady. An exasperated Jacques Chirac once was caught on a mic complaining about Thatcher: “What does she want from me, this housewife? My balls on a plate?” Nonetheless, there was no disguising the depth of anger at last week’s European Council meeting, with Orbán the villain of the piece as the Hungarian leader stubbornly declined once again to approve the critical financial lifeline for Ukraine. He’d only do so, he said, when Russian oil flows freely to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, damaged in a Russian air attack. Orbán accuses Kyiv of stalling repairs to it; Ukraine’s leader denies this. “I have never heard such hard-hitting criticism at an EU summit of anyone, ever,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told reporters later. Maddened though they may be with Orbán, some of his most fervent European critics worry that EU leaders fell into a trap he carefully baited and perfectly timed for the final stretch of the closely fought Hungarian parliamentary elections. They worry EU leaders inadvertently boosted his electoral chances by ganging up on him and allowing him to portray himself back at home as the only man capable of protecting Hungarian interests, a favorite trope of his.  “The EU should have waited for the result of the Hungarian election,” French MEP Chloé Ridel told POLITICO. “Orbán is not doing will in the opinion polls. And obviously he’s doing his best to fight until the end, and they should have avoided the confrontation about the Ukrainian loan, delayed the clash and not let him obtain what he clearly wanted,” she added.  As co-chair of the European Parliament’s Intergroup on Anti-Corruption, Ridel has been an impassioned critic of Orbán and she argues that if he does pull off another election win next month, then the EU should withhold all EU funds for Hungary to punish it for democratic backsliding and explore the nuclear option of stripping an Orbán-led Hungary of its EU voting rights.  But best to keep quiet for now with the long-serving Hungarian leader’s political dominance in question for the first time in a decade-and-a-half with his Fidesz party trailing rival Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in the opinion polls, she believes. Why play into Orbán’s election script and give him the opportunity to fire up his electoral base and engineer a rally-around-the-flag and possibly persuade swing voters to cast their ballots for Fidesz? ORBÁN’S ELECTION PLAYBOOK Certainly, as he left Brussels after the summit on Friday morning, Orbán didn’t seem crestfallen or rattled by the drubbing. Tellingly he flashed several smiles as he told reporters that all the EU leaders could do was to “make a few threats and then realize that it would not work.” He added: “There was no argument from them against which we did not have a stronger argument. They did not say nice things, but they could not bring up anything that Hungary could be morally, legally, or politically blamed for.”  All of this is very much out of Orbán’s election playbook, according to Michael Ignatieff, the former Canadian politician. He has observed Hungarian politics up close as professor of history at the Central European University, formerly based in Budapest, until it was forced out by Orbán, and is now headquartered in Vienna. “There’s always a risk you fall into a trap with Orbán. He’s fighting for his political life,” Ignatieff told POLITICO. But he doesn’t fault EU leaders for the stance they took last week. “I’m in no position to second-guess the Commission or the Council or anybody. The point to remember is that Orbán has run against Brussels Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday for 16 years and cashed the checks on Saturday and Sunday. That’s the play, right? I don’t think there’s anything the EU can do one way or the other here. If it plays soft, he’ll still play hard,” he added. Orbán’s four previous election campaigns were all built around the idea of Hungary facing a dark and dangerous external threat, portraying himself as the man of destiny — the only one able to protect the beleaguered country surrounded by conniving enemies. Those foes have been variously faceless financial masters of the universe, international institutions, transnational left-wing elites and, of course, always the European Union. “We know all too well the nature of the uninvited helping comrades, and we recognize them even when instead of uniforms with epaulettes, they don well-tailored suits,” Orbán said once, when his controversial changes to Hungary’s constitution were challenged by the EU.  While MAGA heavyweights have not been shy in recent weeks to mobilize to shore up their most loyal European ideological ally — this week Reuters reported that U.S. Vice President JD Vance might be dispatched to Budapest in a bid to give Orbán an electoral lift. But EU leaders had until last week been more circumspect and careful to try to stay above the electoral fray to avoid being accused of election meddling. ‘PYRRHIC VICTORY’ While disputing that Orbán in any way lured EU leaders into a trap, Fidesz MEP András László conceded the clash might well help the Hungarian leader secure a fifth straight term as prime minister. “Mr. Orbán actually kept his word. Isn’t that what every citizen wants from politicians?” And with a touch of sophistry, he told POLITICO: “It was not the reaction of EU partners which could help us in this election, it’s the fact that Mr. Orbán actually stood his ground and did not give in to the pressure.” László blames Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the clash, arguing that the Ukrainian president is purposefully not repairing the oil pipeline “for political reasons, to meddle in the elections, create chaos, create fear in the hope that Hungarians will turn against Orbán.” Since the summer, Orbán has gone out his way, of course, to cast Magyar as a puppet of the EU and even a Ukrainian agent of influence who wants to push Hungary into war. The portrayal of Magyar, an MEP, as an instrument of Brussels is false. Tisza MEPs voted in the European Parliament against the €90 billion loan to Ukraine and Magyar is also critical of fast-tracking Kyiv’s application for EU membership. Nevertheless, Orbán persists in his characterization of Magyar as Brussels’ guy. “In line with Brussels and Kyiv, instead of a national government, they [Tisza] want to bring a pro-Ukrainian government to power in Hungary. That is why they are not standing up for the interests of Hungarian people and Hungary,” Orbán argued in a Facebook post last week. And with his domination of Hungary’s traditional media, his bundling together of the EU, Magyar and Ukraine as one collective enemy might well be cutting through — at least in the rural districts Orbán needs to hold if he’s to defy his critics and pull off another victory.  But if he does so off the back of last week’s clash with other EU leaders, it will be a “pyrrhic victory for him,” said Péter Krekó, director of the Political Capital Institute, a Budapest-based think tank and political consultancy. “Orbán can use it in the campaign to demonstrate his fight against Brussels domestically, but if he stays in power the Council will play hardball. It is bad for the EU now, but it will be much worse for Hungary in the middle to long run — if Orbán stays in power,” Krekó told POLITICO.

The Trump administration is doubling down on its endorsement of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán in next month’s Hungarian elections, even as Orbán’s deal-blocking in Brussels has been labeled “unacceptable” by EU peers. U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday reiterated his “complete and total endorsement” of Orbán in the Hungarian elections. And U.S. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly due to fly to Budapest in April in support of the prime minister. The EU’s longest-serving leader, facing an election in less than a month that he is forecast to lose, has long been a thorn in the side of Brussels. In the latest stand-off against his European counterparts, Orbán held hostage a €90 billion loan to Ukraine this week over an oil dispute. “The prime minister has been a strong leader whose shown the entire world what’s possible when you defend your borders, your culture, your heritage, your sovereignty and your values,” Trump said in a video address to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) taking place in Hungary on Saturday. Trump praised Hungary’s “strong borders” and said the country will continue to “work very hard on immigration,” and said Europe has to “work very hard” to solve “a lot of problems” around immigration. The American president said that Hungary and the U.S. are “showing the way toward a revitalized West,” and would also work “hard together on energy.” Vance is planning an April trip to Budapest just ahead of the Hungarian elections in a show of support for Orbán, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto confirmed in a podcast on Friday. Reuters first reported on Vance’s planned trip to Budapest.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán paid his respects to the actor Chuck Norris, who died Friday at the age of 86. A day after a bruising summit of European leaders in Brussels, Orbán posted “Farewell, my friend” on social media alongside a video of the two men together. The video dates from November 2018 when Norris met Orbán in Budapest. In the clip, Orbán tells Norris he is “a street fighter basically, I’m not coming from the elite.” The Hungarian leader then takes the martial arts star to see Hungary’s anti-terrorism unit — “the toughest guys” — perform a series of suitably tough guy activities, prompting Norris to say: “I have seen training all over the world, and this is the best demonstration, the best I’ve seen.” On the same trip, Orbán told the American that “90 percent of the comments on me is negative … the liberals hate me.” “You’re like Trump,” Norris said. “A little bit more than that!” Orbán replied. Norris was a world karate champion who became a martial arts movie star in films such as “The Delta Force” as well as the TV series “Walker, Texas Ranger.” He was a high-profile Republican and endorsed Donald Trump during his 2016 election campaign, calling on “freedom-loving citizens” to “rally behind” Trump. Orbán was in Brussels Thursday and refused to budge when pressured by fellow EU leaders to change his stance on a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. “It is completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing,” European Council President António Costa said of Orbán’s position. Hungary goes to the polls for a national election on April 12. Also paying tribute to Norris was Germany’s Free Democratic Party, which tweeted: “Chuck Norris doesn’t die. The resurrection just wants to be thorough. We know what we’re talking about” — perhaps a reference to the FDP’s ailing fortunes of late (it has no seats in the German parliament after a disastrous 2025 election). Ferdinand Knapp contributed to this report.

BUDAPEST — If Brussels claws back €10 billion of EU funds controversially disbursed to Hungary, it will also have to recover as much as €137 billion from Poland too, Budapest’s EU affairs minister told POLITICO. The European Commission made a highly contentious decision in December 2023 to free up €10 billion of EU funds to Hungary that had been frozen because of weaknesses on rule of law deficiencies and backsliding on judicial independence. Members of the European Parliament condemned what looked like a political decision, offering a sweetener to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán just before a key summit where the EU needed his support for Ukraine aid. On Feb. 12, Court of Justice of the European Union Advocate General Tamara Ćapeta recommended annulling the decision, meaning Hungary may have to return the funds if the court follows in its final ruling in the coming months. Orbán has slammed the idea of a repayment as “absurd.” János Bóka, Hungary’s EU affairs minister, told POLITICO that clawing back the €10 billion from the euroskeptic government in Budapest would mean that Brussels should also be recovering cash from Poland, led by pro-EU Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “We believe that the Commission’s decision was lawful … the opinion, I think, it’s legally excessive,” Bóka said. He warned that “if the Advocate General’s opinion is followed then the Commission would be legally required to freeze all the EU money going to Poland as well, which I think in any case the Commission is not willing to do.” The legal opinion on Hungary states the the Commission was wrong in unfreezing the funds “before the required legislative reforms had entered into force or were being applied,” Ćapeta said in February. Bóka said that would seem to describe the situation in Poland too. In February 2024, the EU executive released €137 billion in frozen funds to Tusk’s government in exchange for promised judicial reforms. But these have since been blocked by President Karol Nawrocki as tensions between the two worsen — spelling trouble for Poland’s continued access to EU cash. “It’s very easy to get the EU funds if they want to give it to you, as we could see in the case of Poland, where they could get the funds with a page-and-a-half action plan, which is still not implemented because of legislative difficulty,” Bóka said. Fundamentally, that is why Bóka said he believed “the court will not issue any judgment that would put Poland in a difficult position.” Bóka risks leaving office with Orbán after the April 12 election, with opposition leader Péter Magyar leading in the polls on a platform of unlocking EU funds, tackling corruption, and improving healthcare and education. The Commission is, separately, withholding another €18 billion of Hungarian funds — €7.6 billion in cohesion funds and €10.4 billion from the coronavirus recovery package. “I think Péter Magyar is right when he says that the Commission wants to give this money to them … in exchange, like they did in the case of Poland, they want alignment in key policy areas,” he said, “like support for Ukraine, green-lighting progress in Ukraine’s accession process, decoupling from Russian oil and gas, and implementing the Migration Pact.” “Just like in the case of Poland, they might allow rhetorical deviation from the line, but in key areas, they want alignment and compliance.” Poland’s Tusk has been vocal against EU laws, such as the migration pact and carbon emission reduction laws. Bóka also accused the Commission of deciding “not to engage in meaningful discussions [on EU funds] as the elections drew closer.” He added that if Orbán’s Fidesz were to win the election, “neither us nor the Commission will have any other choice than to sit down and discuss how we can make progress in this process.” Legal experts are cautious about assessing the potential impact of such a ruling, noting that the funds for Poland and Hungary were frozen under different legal frameworks. However, there is broad agreement that the case is likely to set some form of precedent over how the Commission handles disbursements of EU funds to its members. If the legal opinion is followed, “there could be a strong case against disbursing funds against Poland,” said Jacob Öberg, EU law professor at University of Southern Denmark. He said, however, that it is not certain the court will follow Ćapeta’s opinion because the cases assess different national contexts. Paul Dermine, EU law professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles agreed the court ruling could “at least in theory, have repercussions on what happened in the Polish case,” but said that he thought judges would follow the legal opinion “as the wrongdoings of the Commission in the Hungarian case are quite blatant.”

Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar is recruiting top business leaders to form his Cabinet if he wins next month’s election — calculating they will bring the skills needed to break Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ubiquitous grip on state institutions. Magyar is running about 10 percentage points ahead of Orbán in polls before the April 12 vote, but a victory in the election would not give him an immediate free hand to rule. Magyar would still face a battle to dismantle Orbán’s influence across the judiciary, media and public companies — some of it exercised through complex webs of Orbán-linked shareholdings. Magyar’s Tisza party is promising a “true regime change” from what it sees as the crony networks through which Orbán, an anti-EU leader close to the Kremlin, controls much of public life in the country of 9.5 million people. Zoltán Tarr, the No. 2 in Tisza, said the priority was to find “good managers” who could implement that change. He explained that another advantage of recruiting from corporate boardrooms — rather than hiring political veterans — was that the new ministers would not be tainted by previous government experience that would compromise their ability to slash back Orbán’s role in the state. “We mostly go to the business world to find names because we have certain rules. We cannot deal with people with certain government ‘baggage.’ And that really limits the possibilities for us,” he told POLITICO in an interview. Tarr added that trying to regain access to Hungary’s currently frozen EU funds would also require skills familiar to executives. “There will be a pragmatic relation with Ursula von der Leyen and Brussels … it’s like business, but mutually beneficial, for Hungary and the EU, and a keeping-your-word kind of business,” he said. So far, only five names for a potential Cabinet have been confirmed, apart from leader Magyar, who would be prime minister. Anita Orbán, who until January was public affairs director for Vodafone group and board chair of Czech chemical giant Draslovka, has been tapped to be the country’s new foreign minister, having been a high-level civil servant in the ministry between 2010 and 2015. To lead the energy portfolio Tisza has picked Shell’s Global Executive Vice President István Kapitány, while for fiscal policy and budget it has picked András Kármán, a top manager at Erste, a Central and Eastern European banking group. The proposed future minister for agriculture, Szabolcs Bóna, is a top entrepreneur in the cattle industry. From outside the realm of big business, the planned minister of health, Zsolt Hegedus, is an orthopedic surgeon. This strategy has served Tisza well in the past. For its list of candidates for the 2024 European elections, the party used public online forms to recruit apolitical figures such as doctors, lawyers, professors and Hungarians with Brussels experience, while avoiding career politicians associated with Orbán’s Fidesz party. COMPLEX STRUCTURES A classic example of the complexity of Orbán’s hold on state entities is MOL, Hungary’s main energy company. It is 10 percent owned by the Mathias Corvinus Collegium Foundation (MCC) — a Fidesz-aligned academic institution controlled by Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán. In 2022, the MCC founded a think tank in Brussels to lobby EU institutions. A classic example of the complexity of Viktor Orbán’s hold on state entities is MOL, Hungary’s main energy company. | Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images Tarr said Tisza has “a special task force” that has drawn up “a plan” on how to tackle MOL. “The whole leadership structure and ownership structure is something which needs to be dealt with,” he said. “There are certain things which will be easier to work around, there will be other things which won’t be that easy to work with, which is MCC for example,” Tarr continued. While the ownership structure will be difficult to change without a two-thirds majority, the company’s strategy will be easier to alter, Tarr said. Tisza plans to halt MOL’s imports of Russian oil by 2035. NO SUPERMAJORITY The biggest problem for Tisza, however, is that many of the changes it is most determined to implement in Hungary will be constitutionally impossible without a two-thirds supermajority, which looks like a remote prospect. Miklós Ligeti, legal director at Transparency International Hungary, said a supermajority would be required “to redesign the basics of how Hungary is working.” The judiciary, the constitutional court, the general prosecutor, the media board and the ombudsman are among the key institutions whose heads can only be appointed with the support of two-thirds of MPs in the Hungarian parliament. These bodies “at the moment are captured [by Orbán’s allies] and may exhibit a potential to block a non-Fidesz government,” Ligeti said. Tarr admitted that a Tisza government needs to be prepared for both scenarios: a simple majority and a two-thirds majority. “We do have a list of actions, legal actions we would like to do,” Tarr said. “We have one scenario when we have a constitutional majority, we have another scenario when we just have a simple majority … that’s how we prepare.” If it attains a supermajority, Tisza also plans to open a debate on the future of the constitution, which was rewritten by Orbán in 2011, along with subsequent amendments, which critics say have limited the power of the constitutional court, civil liberties and media freedom. “We think it’s not right how [the Constitution is] at the moment, but it is up to a wider dialogue on how it should be,” Tarr said.

NYÍREGYHÁZA, Hungary — Hungarian Prime Viktor Orbán’s political dominance is in question for the first time in 16 years. And in his ruling party’s rural stronghold, younger voters are complaining their elderly relatives are still spellbound by him. Capitalizing on voter frustration over record inflation, economic malaise and endemic corruption, opposition figure Péter Magyar’s campaign has turned his once small center-right Tisza party into a strong anti-Orbán bloc that now holds a national lead in the polls. His promises of building a “modern, European Hungary” are resonating — particularly with the young. But not so much with the older generation who are more resistant to Magyar’s call for change. And that generational divide, younger voters worry, may be a decisive factor in what’s shaping up to be the country’s most consequential election since the end of Communism. The northeastern town of Nyíregyháza, where more than half the population is over 50 years old, is a prime example of this. Long a Fidesz fortress, town residents were hesitant to talk to media or share their last names for fear of online reprisal, particularly the older generation of ruling party supporters. However, some Tisza voters were willing to speak and lament their Orbán-supporting elders — like 27-year-old actor and former Fidesz voter Benji. Asking not to share his family name for fear of trolling on social media, “I’m rooting for Tisza, and I’m hoping there will be some change. The country is heading in the wrong direction, culturally and business-wise,” he told POLITICO. But, he added, in a conversation interrupting his short walk to the theater, “my mom is voting for Orbán because of the war. And her friends as well.” According to Benji, Orbán’s laser-like campaigning about the risks of being sucked into the war in neighboring Ukraine, and his relentless portrayal of Magyar as a Brussels stooge, is working like a spell on the elderly in Nyíregyháza, which is just 70 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. So, too, is his argument that the country needs political stability and that his is the safest pair of hands to navigate these highly dangerous times. Péter Magyar’s promises of building a “modern, European Hungary” are resonating — particularly with the young. | Ferenc Isza/AFP via Getty Images It’s not just in Nyíregyháza that the generational divide spells trouble for Magyar either. Tisza faces a similar problem in other eastern and southern towns, as Fidesz’s traditional heartland has seen a near-constant exodus of the young in search of jobs and opportunities in Budapest or overseas. This youthful flight has only buttressed Fidesz’s regional dominance over the years, and if Tisza is to oust the long-serving Hungarian leader, it will have to win at least some of these towns. And given Orbán’s incumbent advantages, dominance over government-owned airwaves and the largely obliging press controlled by his business allies, Tisza will only have a chance of unseating him if it can erode his party’s traditional vote. Nyíregyháza’s older population is particularly tight-lipped, but Katalin, a 70-year-old semi-retired credit advisor, was happy speak. Once a loyal Fidesz voter, she’s now doing her best to cajole her peers toward Tisza, though she admits whipping up support among her peers in her hometown has been tough, particularly because of the war. “I’m trying to convince everyone that I can to vote for the opposition. But, unfortunately, I have Fidesz voters in my circle. I can’t believe they’re not seeing what this filth is doing,” she said. Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. Others group together portraits of Magyar, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, implying they’re all one and the same. “When I talk to my mom about politics, I feel like she’s brainwashed. I try to speak with her to raise her awareness and to encourage her to question things, so she could see behind what’s in the news. My mom is 64. But she and her friends are going to vote for Fidesz,” Benji similarly complained. Tisza will only have a chance of unseating Viktor Orbán if it can erode his party’s traditional vote. | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images Tibor, an IT worker, is encountering the same with his grandmother. “She’s a big fan of the ruling party. And one of my relatives is working for Fidesz, so they are, of course, voting for Orbán,” he explained. “I have no clue why anyone would vote for Fidesz. I feel like they’re just old and glued to watching the government TV channels. They have tunnel vision.” The last time Hungary held parliamentary elections in 2022, opposition hopes were similarly high, but that’s not how things turned out: Fidesz secured the highest vote share of any party in Hungary since the fall of Communism in 1989. “We won a victory so big that you can see it from the moon, and you can certainly see it from Brussels,” boasted an ebullient Orbán. And in the Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg region, where Nyíregyháza is the county capital, Fidesz crushed the opposition with a 61 percent vote share — 7 percent higher than the party’s national take. Yet, Tisza is sure this time will be different, partly because it’s fielding local star László Gajdos as its main candidate here. Hungarians cast two votes — one for the national party list and another for their preferred candidate in single-member district constituencies. Of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, 106 are filled by winners of the district races, while the remaining 93 seats are distributed among winners of the party lists. And Gajdos, a highly popular director of the Nyíregyháza Zoo, is running on both. Even pro-Fidesz observers like Mráz Ágoston Sámuel, director of the research consultancy Nézőpont Institute, expect Tisza to win more national list seats “because opposition voters are very much concentrated in the cities, especially in Budapest. From the party list, we estimate Fidesz will get about 40 seats,” he told POLITICO. But the real fight will be in the districts, and Fidesz will still win the majority there, he said. Tisza disagrees. Péter Lajos Szakács, one of the party’s candidates in Nyíregyháza, told POLITICO he’s confident the party will win. “In Nyíregyháza, we will win with a landslide. I’m in the second district and Gajdos is in the first. He’ll have a historic win. With me, what I can say is that right now, I’m in a tie with my opponent. But we’re working hard, so we can send him into retirement, and he can then spend time with his grandkids,” he said confidently. But local supporters POLITICO spoke to weren’t quite so convinced the electoral struggle in Nyíregyháza is over. “I wouldn’t dare make any predictions,” cautioned Benji. However, most of them did say they thought the election outcome would be close. And that in itself suggests Fidesz isn’t likely to scale the heights it did in 2022. Dotted around the town are Fidesz billboards depicting Magyar as Janus-like, with half his face transformed into the EU flag. | Artur Widak/NurPhoto via Getty Images Ultimately, in the districts outside Budapest, much will depend on whether Fidesz can once again mobilize its supporters and get out the vote. In the past, the party was highly efficient in doing so, but in a video of party workers gathered for “warrior training” in October, Orbán was seen fuming about the state of the party’s databases, complaining they were in bad shape. Even so, according to 76-year-old retail store owner Júlia, soothsaying might be a mistake. Unlike most of her contemporaries, Júlia thinks Hungary desperately needs change: “I don’t want to say who I’m voting for. My main criterion is that my kids and my grandkids get to stay here. And that they can make a living, and I don’t think that will happen unless things change. Life will then get easier here,” she mused. In the meantime, with political tensions running high, her business is being impacted. Gesturing to the empty street in downtown Nyíregyháza, she said: “Everything is so quiet. We can really feel it. People are saving up their money. They’re scared of what the future will bring.”

Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar is accusing the Kremlin of supporting the election campaign of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán with a new barrage of disinformation videos that are supposed to appear on Thursday. Orbán is the EU leader closest to Russian President Vladimir Putin — and a persistent obstacle to Brussels’ support for Ukraine — but he now faces the toughest fight of his political career in Hungary’s April 12 election, where polls put him about 10 points behind Magyar.   Magyar — a former member of Orbán’s Fidesz party, who understands its playbook — said on Tuesday he’d received information that the attack would take the form of “14 AI-generated smear videos,” and complained that the disinformation campaign had been produced “with the help of Russian intelligence services.” People in Magyar’s Tisza party and analysts in Budapest have long expected the race to get dirty as it enters the final stretch. Magyar’s tactic is to sound the alarm on the alleged impending smear attacks against Tisza before they land, hoping to blunt their impact. That’s the same strategy he adopted in mid-February, when faced with the prospect that his opponents could release a sex tape featuring him. He went public and accused Fidesz of planning to release a tape “recorded with secret service equipment and possibly faked, in which my then-girlfriend and I are seen having intimate intercourse.”   For now, that intervention seems to have worked, and such a video has not yet been released. BLOWING THE WHISTLE On Thursday, just as Magyar arrives to campaign in a constituency on the Danube close to Budapest, his team expects Fidesz to target the local candidate and her family with AI-generated videos which will be promoted via fake accounts. Magyar announced his concerns on social media, and called on Orbán “to immediately halt the planned election fraud and order Russian agents out of Hungary.” “By advancing what’s going to happen, we hope to neutralize it … whenever we had any information, [Magyar] made it public right away,” Zoltan Tarr, Tisza’s No. 2 and a long-time Magyar confidant, told POLITICO. “The system is not 100 percent waterproof or leakproof. And we always get some hints of what will be Fidesz’s next move,” he added. It’s too early to assess whether this strategy of going public will be successful for the sex tape and future smear campaigns, said Péter Krekó, executive director of Political Capital, an independent policy research consultancy. But he added that anticipating Fidesz’s moves had worked “really well” to build Magyar’s “Teflon image” because no scandals had yet “burnt” him. Tisza has also raised the specter of foreign interference, openly accusing Orbán of inviting Russian spies to meddle in the election, following reports by independent media VSquare and journalist Szabolcs Panyi. Fidesz denies the allegations. “The left-wing allegation linked to journalist Szabolcs Panyi, claiming Russian interference in the elections, is false,” the Hungarian government’s international communications office told POLITICO in a statement. “No information supports the presence or activities in Hungary of the specific individuals named by Szabolcs Panyi, or of any other persons allegedly engaged in such activities. Other countries’ intelligence services also have no concrete information regarding this matter.” Fidesz members insist Magyar is financed by Ukraine with the aim of installing a puppet government that will be loyal to Kyiv and Brussels. They accuse Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of interfering in the election by blocking Russian oil imports via the Druzhba pipeline and threatening the life of Orbán. The latter allegation came after the Ukrainian leader insinuated he would refer Orbán to Ukrainian troops for a direct talk “in their own language.” The leading Fidesz lawmaker in the European Parliament, Tamás Deutsch, turned the tables and accused Tisza of spreading false information. “As part of this serious interference, the pro-Ukrainian and pro-Brussels Tisza party is spreading disinformation through sympathetic media outlets in Brussels and Hungary,” he told POLITICO. “Hungary and its government will not accept pressure or interference in its democratic processes and will do their utmost to stand up for the interests of the Hungarian people.” FORCING RESIGNATIONS Because the deadline to register candidates for the April 12 vote has passed, the names on the party lists can’t be changed. For this reason, analysts say, Fidesz may now try to dig up dirt on Tisza candidates in the 106 constituencies to knock them out of the race with no hope of replacement. “There are some people who have had certain issues in their lives in the past. Nothing criminal, but perhaps they had a company that had to be closed down, or they went through a divorce, or something similar. These things then can be used as hooks to try to infiltrate the psyche of the candidate, creating false narratives around them,” said Tisza’s Tarr. The campaign that Magyar alleges will be launched on Thursday targets a candidate for the fifth district in Pest, Orsolya Miskolczi. He has not given further details, but Kontroll, a media platform close to Tisza whose publisher is Magyar’s brother, suggested in an article that Fidesz will try to link Miskolczi to a high-level corruption scandal in the Hungarian National Bank, where her husband worked as a legal advisor. The Financial Times on Wednesday reported the Kremlin had endorsed a plan by a communications agency under western sanctions to support Fidesz in the election, including by targeting controversial Tisza candidates. The objective of such smear campaigns “is to push us as far as possible and break us, or force us to give up,” Tarr said, adding the muckraking also targets family members and takes a psychological toll. “They are singling out some of us in the hope that one might resign,” he added.

BRUSSELS — The European Commission on Friday rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over remarks that Hungary interpreted as a threat against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Zelenskyy alluded Thursday to giving the address of a “certain person” — widely understood to mean Orbán — to Ukrainian troops for a direct talk “in their own language.” Hungary took offense to the remarks, as an intensifying spat between Kyiv and Budapest threatens to run out of control. “Specifically in relation to the comments made by President Zelenskyy, we are very clear as the European Commission that that type of language is not acceptable. There must not be threats against EU member states,” Commission deputy chief spokesperson Olof Gill told reporters Friday, in a rare condemnation of the leader in Kyiv. Tensions between Ukraine and Hungary have escalated in recent weeks as Budapest continues to veto a €90 billion loan package for Kyiv. Orbán’s core complaint remains the halt of Russian oil flowing through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which Budapest believes Kyiv has deliberately shut off. Ukraine denies Orbán’s allegation, saying the pipe was severely damaged by a Russian drone attack in January. Viktor Orbán’s core complaint remains the halt of Russian oil flowing through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which Budapest believes Kyiv has deliberately shut off. | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images Ukraine on Friday accused Hungary of kidnapping seven employees of the state-owned Oschadbank and seizing millions in cash and gold, while Orbán had vowed on social media Thursday to “break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force.” After his emotional outburst on Thursday, Zelenskyy said he was ready to repair and restart the pipeline in a month if the EU officially requests it and promises Orbán will unblock the €90 billion loan. Ukraine is expected to run short of funds by the end of March as it resists Russia’s full-scale invasion, and EU leaders have pledged to cover Kyiv’s financial needs for the next two years — a pressure point the Commission sees as partly explaining Zelenskyy’s anxiety over the veto and potentially prompting his remarks. Speaking from the podium in the Commission’s Brussels headquarters, Gill urged both sides to cool it. “At the moment there is a lot of escalating rhetoric and inflammatory rhetoric. We believe that such rhetoric from all sides is neither helpful nor conducive to achieving the common goals we all have here,” he said, adding that Brussels is “in active discussions with all sides” and urging them to “calm down a bit” and “dial down the rhetoric.” Asked whether the Commission planned to express solidarity with Orbán, the spokesperson said he had “nothing to add” beyond his earlier remarks. The Commission is focused on maintaining unity around key objectives, including stepping up pressure on Russia to end its war, advancing a major EU loan for Ukraine and ensuring the bloc’s energy security, Gill said.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán vowed on social media Thursday to “break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force,” promising “no deals, no compromise” in his campaign to restore the flow of Russian crude to his country. “We will break the oil blockade. We will force the Ukrainians to restart deliveries,” the nationalist-populist leader repeated during a speech in front of Hungary’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry, referencing a damaged pipeline that Ukraine has claimed can’t be fixed. A thousand kilometers away in Kyiv, as if picking up the gauntlet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mocked Orbán’s bluster and conceded the pipeline actually could be fixed within a month and a half. “They [the Russians] are killing us, and we’re supposed to give poor little Orban oil, because without it he won’t win elections,” the Ukraine leader said. The real reason Ukraine was prepared to repair the pipeline, he added, was to unblock a €90 billion loan from the EU that Hungary has vetoed. “We hope a certain person in the EU will ⁠not keep blocking the 90 billion … and Ukrainian soldiers will have weapons,” Zelenskyy added. “Otherwise, we will give the address of this person to our armed forces, our guys. Let them call him, speak with him in their own language.” Hungary holds parliamentary elections on April 12, and Orbán faces defeat at the hands of his rival, Péter Magyar of the pro-EU Tisza party, who led him by eight percentage points in polling late last month. Orbán has made Russia’s war on Ukraine one of the pillars of his campaign, accusing neighboring Kyiv of slow-walking repairs to the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline that used to bring Russian crude to Central Europe, and claiming the political opposition was conspiring with Brussels and Kyiv to deprive his country of access to cheap fuel. Ukraine has claimed the pipeline was badly damaged by shelling, but is widely seen as reluctant to allow Moscow to continue collecting oil revenues from EU countries. “We will win. We have political and financial tools, and with these we will compel them as soon as possible to reopen the Friendship oil pipeline,” Orbán promised, adding English subtitles and heroic music to his speech on X. Veronika Melkozerova contributed to this report.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Wednesday accused Ukraine of plotting to sabotage Hungary’s energy infrastructure and ordered troops to protect key sites. “I have heard the briefings of the national security services and see that Ukraine is preparing further actions aimed at disrupting the operation of Hungary’s energy system,” Orbán said in a video posted on X. The accusation adds fuel to a conflict Orbán has stoked with neighboring Ukraine as well as Brussels ahead of an April 12 parliamentary election in which he faces the prospect of defeat. Together with pro-Russian Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who on Monday cut off emergency power supplies to Ukraine, Orbán has accused Kyiv of slow-walking repairs to the Druzhba pipeline that supplies Russian oil to Hungary. Ukrainian authorities have said the pipeline was damaged in a Russian airstrike in late January and is still undergoing repairs. Earlier this week, the Hungarian leader also blocked a €90 billion financial lifeline from the EU to Ukraine that had been agreed at a European Council meeting in December — drawing an exasperated response from EU foreign ministers on Monday. “I am astounded about the Hungarian position,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told reporters as he headed into a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council. “I don’t think it’s right if Hungary uses its own fight for freedom to betray European sovereignty.” But facing the prospect of defeat by his political rival, Péter Magyar — the gap is eight percentage points, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls — Orbán is trying to paint Magyar as pro-Ukrainian and pro-Brussels and has attacked him for his silence on the issue of oil supply and the threat from Kyiv. “I have ordered the strengthening of the protection of critical energy infrastructure,” he said on Wednesday. “This means that soldiers and the equipment necessary to repel potential attacks will be deployed near key energy facilities.” Additional police will patrol designated power plants, distribution stations and control centers, Orbán said. A flight ban has also been imposed in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county in northeastern Hungary on the border with Ukraine. Magyar, for his part, has accused Orbán of nepotism and corruption, and says that after 16 years as prime minister Orbán is responsible for Hungary’s economic woes, which in turn have driven higher prices, especially for fuel. “Instead of addressing the ongoing struggles of ordinary Hungarians and businesses, Viktor Orbán chooses to mislead, provoke, and burden his country with some of the highest taxes in Europe,” Magyar wrote on social media Tuesday, adding that petrol is considerably cheaper in Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s request for comment.