Zbigniew Ziobro spent eight years reshaping Poland’s legal system. Now, speaking from political asylum in Hungary, the former justice minister says the same system is being turned against him, and that he can only fight it from abroad. Ziobro, once one of the most powerful figures in Polish politics, ran the justice system under the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government from 2015 to 2023. He is now under investigation over the alleged misuse of public funds and the deployment of Pegasus spyware against political opponents — cases pursued by prosecutors under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist government. “My presence here isn’t an escape of any kind — it’s a form of fighting back,” Ziobro told POLITICO by telephone from Budapest, after Viktor Orbán’s government granted him asylum earlier this month. “Because here I can fight. There, I’d be stripped of any ability to do so.” Prosecutors say investigations linked to Ziobro are part of an effort to unwind decisions taken during his tenure, when sweeping judicial reforms gave ministers broad influence over prosecutors and disciplinary control over judges. Those changes put Poland on a prolonged collision course with Brussels and were later condemned by EU courts. Ziobro rejected those allegations and cast himself as a victim of political revenge. “I wanted to reform Poland’s judiciary — and that was never accepted, including by the EU,” he said. “They had the right to criticize me politically. They did not have the right to falsely accuse me of theft.” He accused prosecutors of using pre-trial detention as a political weapon against figures linked to his former ministry. As an example, Ziobro pointed to the case of two of his former aides and that of Michał Olszewski, a Catholic priest accused of misusing funds from a justice ministry program for crime victims. Olszewski spent months in pre-trial detention, and Poland’s ombudsman later cited instances of improper treatment. Hungary’s decision to grant Ziobro asylum has pushed the dispute beyond Poland’s borders, infuriating Warsaw and raising questions about the EU’s ability to enforce cooperation between member states. Poland’s justice minister, Waldemar Żurek, called the move a “dangerous precedent,” warning it could allow governments to shield political allies from accountability at home. From exile, Ziobro has broadened his attack. He accused the European Commission and its president, Ursula von der Leyen, of hypocrisy for condemning alleged rule-of-law abuses under PiS while tolerating what he called “lawlessness” under the current government in Warsaw. Polish officials reject that. Deputy Foreign Minister Ignacy Niemczycki on Monday pointed to assessments by international organizations showing that rule-of-law standards deteriorated under PiS and have improved since the change of government. “Given Poland’s political situation, not everything we would like to do is possible,” Niemczycki said, responding to a question from POLITICO in Brussels. “But what happens in practice matters far more. And speaking frankly, if Ziobro has fled to Hungary, then what exactly are we debating?” A DIVIDED RECEPTION AT HOME Ziobro’s safe haven in Budapest may not last. Hungary is heading toward a parliamentary election in April, with pro-EU opposition challenger Péter Magyar leading in polls. Asked whether a change of government could jeopardize his asylum status, Ziobro brushed off the question and instead mounted a vigorous defense of Orbán. “Hungarians will choose Orbán,” Ziobro said. “They know that in an unstable world, experience and the ability to protect the country’s security matter.” He rejected claims that Orbán’s ties to Russia reflected an ideological sympathy. Instead, Ziobro argued that Hungary’s reliance on Russian gas left it little room to maneuver. Back in Poland, Ziobro’s asylum has divided opinion. Polls suggest a majority of PiS voters see Ziobro’s stay in Hungary as a liability for the party. President Karol Nawrocki, a PiS ally, has offered only a cautious backing, warning that not everyone in Poland can count on a fair trial. Pro-PiS broadcaster Telewizja Republika has amplified Ziobro’s narrative of a witch-hunt, producing near-constant television coverage on police searches, detentions and court proceedings involving the former minister’s allies. From Budapest, Ziobro said he is writing a book about what he called “Europe’s hypocrisy and Tusk’s dictatorship,” as Polish tabloids chronicle his new life strolling about the Hungarian capital. He insisted his exile is temporary and said he plans to return to Polish politics, staging a comeback ahead of the 2027 parliamentary election. “I am convinced Tusk’s government will fall,” he said. “It will end in failure and he will have to answer for what he has done.”

“In Brussels, no one hears you scream” — spin doctor Kasper Juul in the Danish political TV drama “Borgen.” For some politicians, Brussels is where you are sent when you are problematic or no longer needed back home. For others, there’s the chance to get a prestigious position that goes beyond rank or experience. At the same time, bureaucrats with little or no media experience appear before the cameras every weekday as European Commission spokespeople, while career diplomats find themselves handling dossiers with major consequences for domestic politics. All these people are united by a belief, to some degree, in the EU project. But working in Brussels can turn into a nightmare (despite the visibility, high salary, and other perks). Here’s who we think have the five hardest jobs in Brussels, and why: MARK RUTTE, NATO SECRETARY-GENERAL He may have been given the nickname “Teflon” by officials in the Netherlands and NATO — because nothing sticks to him — but with Donald Trump in the White House, Rutte’s job is surely the toughest in Brussels. His role at present is seemingly less about running the military alliance and more about trying to stop one man — Trump — from dismantling the entire thing. And the former Dutch prime minister is having some success in his role as Trump whisperer. Not long after he used his speech in Davos last week to double down on wanting Greenland, the U.S. president met with Rutte and surprisingly announced that they had “formed the framework of a future deal.” However, it does put Rutte in some awkward situations. Last March, when Rutte and Trump met in the Oval Office, the U.S. president said he wanted to annex Greenland, to which the Dutchman could only reply “I don’t want to drag NATO” into it, which angered the Danes. No provision in the alliance’s 1949 founding treaty envisions one NATO ally attacking another, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and others warned that an invasion would mean the end of the alliance. Rutte earlier this month said NATO is “not at all” in crisis. Rutte also raised eyebrows when he called Trump “daddy” — a comment he tried to row back on. Rutte’s office didn’t respond to a request for a comment for this article. “I perfectly understand how difficult is his job [to keep NATO unity], but it’s such a pain to watch him,” said a senior EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak freely, as were others in this article. Mark Rutte raised eyebrows when he called Donald Trump “daddy” — a comment he tried to row back on. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images “Walking on a tightrope in a headwind is easier than NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s job,” said Nicolás Pascual de la Parte, former Spanish NATO ambassador and now a member of the European Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee for the European People’s Party. “Keeping the Atlantic alliance united under present circumstances requires unparalleled statesmanship to temper down Trump’s relentless brinkmanship.” PAULA PINHO, COMMISSION CHIEF SPOKESPERSON In the von der Leyen era, the job of chief spokesperson has become a very tough gig. Officials say that the Commission president works in a (metaphorical) bunker, with only her head of cabinet, Björn Seibert, in the loop while everyone else is either left in the dark or informed only on a strictly need-to-know basis — very different from the more collegial style of her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker. That makes the job of Portuguese official Paula Pinho, appointed Commission chief spokesperson in November 2024 and a lawyer by training, one of the most difficult in Brussels as she has to face questions from journalists in front of the cameras every working day. But often Pinho — a German speaker close to Michael Hager, considered a Seibert ally and who is head of Cabinet for Valdis Dombrovskis — cannot respond either because she’s not allowed to or because she’s not been given the answer, officials and diplomats say. It’s made the Commission more closed off than ever. Last January, when Ursula von der Leyen was hospitalized with pneumonia, it was the German news agency DPA that broke the news. The following month, even the famously non-transparent Vatican didn’t hide the fact that Pope Francis had been taken to hospital. When Pinho’s predecessor, Eric Mamer, moved on, there were jokes among officials about how many bottles of champagne he opened to celebrate that he was finally free. At least Mamer’s sacrifice was rewarded: when he left, he got the position of director general in the environment department. Pinho told POLITICO: “I am honoured to have what is among the unique jobs in Brussels. Certainly not measured in comfort or easiness of the tasks, but in responsibility and sobriety.” She said part of the job “is to differentiate what the public needs to know and what some media would just love to know.” KAJA KALLAS, EU FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF The European External Action Service, the bloc’s diplomatic body, was created in 2010 and the job of the top diplomat who leads it has always been a difficult one as member countries, especially the big ones, want to keep foreign policy in their own hands. Relations between von der Leyen and the former holder of the role, Josep Borrell, were very bad, according to officials. It’s even worse with Kallas. The Mediterranean area has been taken away from Kallas as the Commission last year created the Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf (DG MENA). At the same time, the Commission has been actively working on plans to cut down the size of the EEAS. In an attempt to fight back, Kallas tried to appoint a powerful deputy secretary general in the form of Martin Selmayr, Juncker’s feared former chief of staff, but the move was blocked by von der Leyen’s office. Kallas “privately complains that she [von der Leyen] is a dictator but there’s little or nothing she can do about that,” said one senior official. Kallas also comes from tiny Estonia, and her party, the liberals, is small, making her position even weaker than Borrell’s (a socialist from Spain). Kallas’ office did not reply to a request for a comment. BÁLINT ÓDOR, HUNGARIAN AMBASSADOR Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán likes to play the villain with his pro-Russia and pro-Trump lines, which makes the job of the country’s EU ambassador difficult. The current ambassador, Bálint Ódor, is seen as close to Orbán’s Fidesz party, unlike his predecessor, Tibor Stelbaczky, who now works for the EU’s diplomatic body. Bálint Ódor is seen as close to Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images When Hungarian ambassadors try to soften some of the harsh lines coming from the government, it creates suspicions in Budapest about their loyalty, said a Hungarian diplomat. One official described the Hungarian ambassador as the “elephant in the room,” because of the country’s close ties with the Kremlin. During the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU last year, some diplomats raised concerns about sharing certain information with the Hungarians because of Orbán’ s proximity to Russia (Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó holds regular meetings with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, who is under EU sanctions). Ódor told POLITICO: “It’s a privilege to serve my country and represent Hungarian interests.” MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ, TRADE COMMISSIONER When a dossier is hard to crack, send for the Moscow-educated Slovak commissioner, nicknamed Mr. Fix It. The former member of the Slovak Communist Party has been a commissioner since October 2009, making him the longest-serving current commissioner, having served under José Manuel Barroso as well as Juncker and von der Leyen. Šefčovič has been called upon to oversee the EU’s response to extraordinary (and complicated) challenges like Brexit and the European Green Deal, and now, in the age of Trump, he is in charge of trade. He does more than that, though. For instance, when von der Leyen didn’t want to go to the European Parliament in Strasbourg for a debate on whether to remove her (and therefore him) from office, she sent Šefčovič instead. Šefčovič’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Get set for this year’s most consequential election in the EU. Hungary’s campaign stepped up a gear this week, with populist nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán facing the toughest challenge yet to his 15-year grip on power. The long-suffering opposition hopes that Péter Magyar — conservative leader of the opposition Tisza party, which is running 12 points ahead in the polls — can overturn what Orbán himself styles as Hungary’s “illiberal democracy.” For many Hungarians, the election is a referendum on Orbán’s model. Under his leadership the government, led by Orbán’s Fidesz party, has tightened its grip on the media and state companies — sparking accusations of cronyism — while weakening judicial independence and passing legislation that sent Hungary plunging down transparency rankings. It now sits at the bottom of the World Justice Project’s rule-of-law index for EU countries. The 62-year-old Orbán is the EU leader closest to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and proves a continual obstacle to efforts by Brussels to build a united front against the Kremlin. He has repeatedly clashed with the EU on topics ranging from LGBTQ+ rights to migration. Predicting the end of the liberal multilateral order, Orbán kicked off the year by saying the EU would “fall apart on its own.” But can Magyar — whose surname literally means “Hungarian” — really topple his former ally? And even if he does, how far could he realistically guide Hungary back toward liberal democracy with Orbán’s state architecture still in place? POLITICO breaks down the five key questions as Hungary heads toward the seismic April 12 vote. 1. WHY SHOULD I CARE? Hungary may be relatively small, with a population of 9.6 million, but under Orbán’s leadership it has become one of the EU’s biggest headaches. He has long weaponized Budapest’s veto in Brussels to block Russia-related sanctions, tie up financial aid to Ukraine and repeatedly stall urgent EU decisions. He is also a key — and sometimes leading — member of a group of right-wing populists in EU capitals, who unite on topics such as opposition to migration and skepticism toward arming Ukraine. Without Orbán, Czechia’s Andrej Babiš and Slovakia’s Robert Fico would cut far more isolated figures at summits of the European Council. Brussels has often resorted to elaborate workarounds to bypass Hungary’s obstructionism, and Orbán’s persistent defiance has led to calls to ditch the unanimity rule that has been in place for decades. “You have heard me 20 times regret, if not more, the attitude of Viktor Orbán, who, every time we had to move forward to help Ukraine … has used his veto to do more blackmail,” EU liberal party chief Valérie Hayer told journalists Tuesday. 2. WHAT ARE THE MAIN BATTLEGROUNDS? Magyar accuses Orbán and Fidesz of nepotism and corruption — of weakening the country’s economy by favoring oligarchs — and of missing out on EU funds by antagonizing Brussels. Orbán wants to frame his arch-nemesis Magyar as a puppet controlled by Brussels. Hungary’s campaign stepped up a gear this week, with populist nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán facing the toughest challenge yet to his 15-year grip on power. | Zoltán Fischer/Hungarian PM Communication/EPA In the past year, Fidesz has launched public debates aiming to divide Magyar’s base — which spans green and left-wing voters to disenchanted former Orbán loyalists — on subjects such as the LGBTQ+ Pride ban. Tisza’s strategy has been to avoid positioning itself on controversial issues, in an effort to garner an absolute majority that will grant the party power to reform electoral law, which they say Orbán rigged to his benefit, and enable constitutional changes. Tisza’s No. 2, Zoltán Tarr, told POLITICO he expected Orbán’s government to deploy “all possible dirty tricks.” “State propaganda smears, AI-generated fakes, doctored videos, potential staged incidents, blackmail, and exploiting the rigged electoral system. They will mobilize everything because they have so much to lose,” Tarr said. Speaking at Fidesz’s party congress on Saturday, Orbán lambasted Tisza as a pro-EU stooge. “If you vote for Tisza or DK [the social-democratic Democratic Coalition], you are voting against your own future. Tisza and DK will carry out Brussels’ demands without batting an eyelid. Do not forget that Tisza’s boss is Herr Weber, Europe’s biggest warmonger,” Orbán said, referring to the German chief of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber. 3. HOW AND WHEN DOES THE ELECTION TAKE PLACE? The national elections will take place on Sunday, April 12. Voters will choose a new 199-seat National Assembly under Hungary’s mixed electoral system, with 106 MPs elected in single-member constituencies and 93 from national party lists. The long-suffering opposition hopes that Péter Magyar — conservative leader of the Tisza party — can overturn what Orbán himself styles as Hungary’s “illiberal democracy.” | Noémi Bruzák/EPA POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows Tisza leading with 49 percent support ahead of Fidesz at 37 percent — with Orbán’s party having been trailing for almost a year now. Although the official campaign period begins Feb. 21, the race has effectively been in full swing for months. Other notable parties in the race are the Democratic Coalition (DK); the far-right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) movement; and the satirical Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP), largely created to mock Orbán’s policies. But these are fighting for survival as they may not meet the threshold of support for winning seats in parliament — meaning the Hungarian legislature could be exclusively controlled by two right-wing parties.  4. CAN THE ELECTION BE FREE AND FAIR? Challengers to the ruling party face a system designed to favor Fidesz. In 2011 Orbán’s government redrew electoral districts and overhauled the voting system to maximize its chances of winning seats. “There is no direct interference with the act of voting itself, yet the broader competitive environment — both in terms of institutional rules and access to resources — tilts heavily in favor of the governing parties,” said political analyst Márton Bene at the TK Institute of Political Science in Budapest. In addition to controlling roughly 80 percent of the media market, the government allows ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries (who tend to favor Fidesz) to vote by mail, whereas those living abroad who have kept their Hungarian addresses must travel to embassies to cast their ballots. “One side enjoys access to the full resources of the state, while the challenger receives no public campaign funding and has virtually no presence in state-controlled media,” said political scientist Rudolf Metz from the TK Institute, adding that this imbalance is partially offset in the digital sphere. But even the unfair conditions don’t preclude a Magyar victory, Bene says, as long as the integrity of the voting process is preserved. 5. HOW MUCH WOULD A MAGYAR WIN REALLY CHANGE? The Brussels establishment is praying for Magyar to win, hoping a Tisza government will deepen ties with the EU. Centrist chief Hayer said her party supported “any candidate who will carry pro-European values, who will be able to beat” the incumbent Hungarian prime minister. Conservative boss Weber quickly welcomed Tisza into the center-right family to secure influence in Budapest and to give them resources to develop their electoral platform. He has repeatedly framed Magyar as the man who will save Hungary from Orbán. While viewed as a potential bridge-builder for the strained Brussels-Budapest relationship, Magyar is by no means an unwavering EU cheerleader. He has been noncommittal about Brussels, considering that any rapprochement could be used by Orbán against him. In an interview with POLITICO in October 2024 he said “we certainly don’t believe in a European superstate.” Conservative boss Manfred Weber quickly welcomed Tisza into the center-right family to secure influence in Budapest and give them resources to develop their electoral platform. Filip Singer/EPA On the domestic front, Tarr — Tisza’s No. 2 — told POLITICO the party wants to “keep [the] border fence, oppose mandatory migration quotas and accelerated Ukraine accession, pursue peace, fight Russian propaganda, strengthen V4 [Hungary, Poland, Czechia and Slovakia] and Central Europe without being Europe’s bad boy.” That echoes the prognosis of political scientist Metz, who said a victory by Magyar “would not mean a radical U-turn or a return to some idealized past.” “Hungary’s role as the EU’s permanent disruptor would probably fade, not because national interests disappear, but because they would be pursued through negotiation and institutional engagement rather than constant veto politics and symbolic conflict,” Metz added. Analysts also cautioned that change at home could be slow. Zoltán Vasali of Milton Friedman University said dismantling the current system would be “legally and institutionally challenging.” “Core constitutional bodies will retain their mandates beyond the upcoming elections, and key positions remain held by individuals aligned with the current government, limiting near-term change,” Vasali said. The scale of a Magyar victory could be decisive. A two-thirds parliamentary supermajority, which would allow the new government to change the constitution, Metz said, would be “a game-changer.” “It would give a Magyar government the legal capacity to restore core elements of the rule of law, rebuild checks and balances, and introduce safeguards such as term limits for key offices,” he said. Kinga Gál, Fidesz’s leader in the European Parliament, did not reply to a request for comment by the time of publication.

Hungary will hold its parliamentary election on April 12, the country’s president Tamás Sulyok announced Tuesday. “Voting will take place on Sunday, 12 April 2026. One of the cornerstones of democracy is the right to free elections. I encourage everyone to exercise this right,” Sulyok said in a post on Facebook. The spring election poses a serious threat to populist-nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s two-decade grip on power during which he has been criticized for backsliding on democracy and rule of law. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, leading with 49 percent support, ahead of Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party at 37 percent. Magyar is making a strong push in the election by campaigning on pledges to strengthen judicial independence, combat corruption and give voters a clear alternative to Fidesz. Orbán is a key disruptor in the EU, frequently clashing with Brussels and other European capitals on support for Ukraine, LGBTQ+ rights and Russia sanctions.

BRUSSELS — Hungarian Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi has said he didn’t know anything about a spy ring that allegedly operated out of Budapest’s embassy to the EU while he was in charge. When quizzed on the scandal by EU lawmakers on Monday, Várhelyi said he hadn’t been approached by intelligence services to pass on secret information. “Have I been approached by the Hungarian or any other services? No, I have not,” he told MEPs in a European Parliament committee meeting. A joint investigation by Hungarian outlet Direkt36, Germany’s Der Spiegel, Belgian daily De Tijd and others reported in October that Hungarian intelligence officials disguised as diplomats had tried to infiltrate EU institutions and recruit spies between 2012 and 2018. At the time the reports surfaced, Várhelyi told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that he was “not aware” of the alleged Hungarian efforts, a denial he repeated on Monday. “I had no knowledge of this claim which was made in the press,” he told MEPs in response to a question from Greens lawmaker Daniel Freund. Freund had asked the commissioner if he had known of any of the activities supposedly run out of the Hungarian permanent representation to the EU, which he worked at from 2011 and ran from 2015. Hungarian officials working in the EU institutions at the time described the network to POLITICO as an open secret in the Belgian capital. Following the media reports, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar — who also worked at the Hungarian permanent representation under Várhelyi — accused him of withholding information about his time as an ambassador. “In my opinion, Olivér Várhelyi, the current EU Commissioner and former EU Ambassador (and my former boss), did not reveal the whole truth when he denied this during the official investigation the other day,” Magyar wrote in a Facebook post. “It was a common fact at the EU Embassy in Brussels, that during the period of János Lázár’s ministry in 2015-2018, secret service people were deployed to Brussels,” he continued. The Commission last year set up an internal group to look into the claims that Hungarian officials had spied on the EU institutions. Commission spokesperson Balazs Ujvari told reporters on Monday that its work is “ongoing.” Gerardo Fortuna contributed to this report.

Poland’s fugitive former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro said he has been granted asylum in Hungary after claiming he faces political repression in his home country. “In this situation, I decided to take advantage of the asylum granted to me by the Hungarian government due to political repression in Poland. I would like to thank Prime Minister Viktor Orbán very much,” he wrote Monday in a social media post.  Ziobro, a senior figure in the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023, perceives an investigation against him as politically driven by the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “I have become the target of personal revenge by Donald Tusk and his circle,” Ziobro wrote, warning that members of the government would face “severe consequences.” He claimed the proceedings against him amounted to retaliation against the opposition. Polish government minister Tomasz Siemoniak slammed Ziobro. “Refuge in Hungary is a downright perfect summary of Ziobro’s career. The former Minister of Justice fleeing like a coward from the Polish justice system. Total downfall,” he commented on X. Ziobro was stripped of immunity in November last year, amid an escalating confrontation between Tusk’s government and the opposition Law and Justice. Several former Law and Justice officials are under investigation over alleged corruption during the party’s period in power. Ziobro is a key figure in an investigation into why and how the Law and Justice-led government allegedly purchased Pegasus spyware to surveil political opponents. If indicted, he could face up to 25 years in prison. Ziobro previously fled abroad. He said he had also applied for his wife to receive international protection. Hungary previously granted asylum to former Polish Deputy Justice Minister Marcin Romanowski, who faced 11 charges in Poland for misuse of public funds when he was deputy justice minister from 2019 to 2023.

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He posts at @Mij_Europe. 2026 is here, and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the U.S. — now effectively threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally — is undermining the EU’s multilateral rule book, which appears increasingly outdated in a far more transactional and less cooperative world. And none of this shows signs of slowing down. In fact, in the year ahead, the steady erosion of the norms Europe has come to rely on will only be compounded by the bloc’s weak leadership — especially in the so-called “E3” nations of Germany, France and the U.K. Looking forward, the greatest existential risks for Europe will flow from the transatlantic relationship. For the bloc’s leaders, keeping the U.S. invested in the war in Ukraine was the key goal for 2025. And the best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the ad-hoc diplomacy and transactionalism that has defined the last 12 months. However, if new threats emerge in this relationship — especially regarding Greenland — this balancing act may be impossible. The year also starts with no sign of any concessions from Russia when it comes to its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the 20-point U.S.-EU-Ukraine plan. This is because Russian President Vladimir Putin is calculating that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to capitulate to territorial demands. I believe Putin is wrong — that backed by Europe, Zelenskyy will continue to resist U.S. pressure on territorial concessions, and instead, increasingly target Russian energy production and exports in addition to resisting along the frontline. Of course, this means Russian aerial attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase in kind. Nonetheless, Europe’s growing military spending, purchase of U.S. weapons, financing for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia — which also target sources of energy revenue — could help maintain last year’s status quo. But this is perhaps the best case scenario. Activists protest outside Downing street against the recent policies of Donald Trump. | Guy Smallman/Getty Images Meanwhile, European leaders will be forced to publicly ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, which was clearly spelled out in the new U.S. national security strategy, while privately doing all they can to counter any antiestablishment backlash at the polls. Specifically, the upcoming election in Hungary will be a bellwether for whether the MAGA movement can tip the balance for its ideological affiliates in Europe, as populist, euroskeptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is currently poised to lose for the first time in 15 years. Orbán, for his part, has been frantically campaigning to boost voter support, signaling that he and his inner circle actually view defeat as a possibility. His charismatic rival Péter Magyar, who shares his conservative-nationalist political origins but lacks any taint of corruption poses a real challenge, as does the country’s stagnating economy and rising prices. While traditional electoral strategies — financial giveaways, smear campaigns and war fearmongering — have so far proven ineffective for Orbán, a military spillover from Ukraine that directly affects Hungary could reignite voter fears and shift the dynamic. To top it all off, these challenges will be compounded by the E3’s weakness. The hollowing out of Europe’s political center has already been a decade in the making. But France, Germany and the U.K. each entered 2026 with weak, unpopular governments besieged by the populist right and left, as well as a U.S. administration rooting for their collapse. While none face scheduled general elections, all three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst. And at least one leader — namely, Britain’s Keir Starmer — could fall because of an internal party revolt. The year’s pivotal event in the U.K. will be the midterm elections in May. As it stands, the Labour Party faces the humiliation of coming third in the Welsh parliament, failing to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish parliament and losing seats to both the Greens and ReformUK in English local elections. Labour MPs already expect a formal challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of surviving seem slight. France, meanwhile, entered 2026 without a budget for the second consecutive year. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that his Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government will probably achieve a budget deal targeting a modest deficit reduction by late February or March. And with the presidential election only 16 months away and local elections due to be held in March, the opposition’s appetite for a snap parliamentary election has abated. However, this is the best he can hope for, as a splintered National Assembly will sustain a mood of slow-motion crisis until the 2027 race. Finally, while Germany’s economy looks like it will slightly recover this year, it still won’t overcome its structural malaise. Largely consumed by ideological divisions, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government will struggle to implement far-reaching reforms. And with the five upcoming state elections expected to see increased vote shares for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, pressure on the government in Berlin will only mount A historic truth — one often forgotten in the quiet times — will reassert itself in 2026: that liberty, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always brittle. The holiday from history, provided by Pax Americana and exceptional post-World War II cooperation and integration, has officially come to an end. Moving forward, Europe’s relevance in the new global order will be defined by its response to Russia’s increased hybrid aggression, its influence on diplomacy regarding the Ukraine war and its ability to improve competitiveness, all while managing an increasingly ascendant far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the U.S. This is what will decide whether Europe can survive.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music He’s not even European — yet Donald Trump has topped POLITICO’s annual P28 ranking of the most powerful people who will shape Europe in 2026. EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton takes you inside the gala in Brussels — where commissioners, MEPs, diplomats, lobbyists and journalists packed into a glittering room, even as the mood underneath the sparkle felt unusually tense. At the event, Ursula von der Leyen sat down with Carrie Budoff Brown, POLITICO’s executive editor, for an exclusive on-stage conversation — offering one of her first public reactions to Trump’s sharp criticism of EU leaders as “weak,” and Washington’s dramatic new security strategy, which seeks to undermine them. Be sure to check out the full 2026 ranking here. Plus, we bring you Sarah’s conversation with Balázs Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister’s political director, who offers a perspective far outside the Brussels mainstream — on Ukraine, on Europe’s political direction, and on where he believes the EU keeps going wrong. And finally, we have a taste of Anne McElvoy’s interview with Nick Thomas-Symonds, the U.K.’s minister for European relations (for more, head to: Politics at Sam and Anne’s ). And if you haven’t yet, listen to the exclusive interview our colleague Dasha Burns did with Donald Trump on our sister podcast The Conversation.

Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony says Hungarian police have recommended he be charged for defying a government ban and allowing a Pride parade to take place earlier this year in Hungary’s capital. “The police concluded their investigation against me in connection with the Budapest Pride march in June with a recommendation to press charges,” he said in a video posted on Facebook Thursday. “They accuse me of violating the [new law on] freedom of assembly, which is completely absurd.” Pride gatherings, rooted in protest and celebration, are held around the world to promote the rights and freedom of expression of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer people. In March, however, Hungary adopted a law restricting the freedom of assembly in cases involving the public portrayal to children of “divergence from self-identity corresponding to sex at birth, sex change or homosexuality.” The Budapest Pride parade was subsequently banned based on the legislation. But political opponents say the government banned Pride in an attempt to create a wedge issue to stay in power. Hungary faces parliamentary elections in April 2026, and in the most recent poll, conducted from Nov. 21-28 by 21 Research Centre, a Budapest-based think tank, the country’s ruling Fidesz party was on track for 40 percent support behind the challenger, Tisza, at 47 percent of decided voters. Karácsony, a Green politician and a strong opponent of nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, rejected the federal government’s edict and allowed the rally to proceed in June. Several EU politicians joined the event to show solidarity with LGBTQ+ people, even though Orbán warned organizers and attendees that legal consequences would follow. The Budapest mayor was questioned by Hungary’s state police in August, and on Thursday said he’d received a formal notice in the case. “In a system where the law protects power rather than people, in this system that stifles free communities, it was inevitable that sooner or later, as the mayor of a free city, they would take criminal action against me,” Karácsony said. He added: “I am proud that I took every political risk for the sake of my city’s freedom, and I stand proudly before the court to defend my own freedom and that of my city.” The European Green Party backed Karácsony. “The fact that the police are requesting to indict the Green Mayor of Budapest Gergely Karácsony for supporting Budapest Pride 2025 is a shocking misuse of state power by the Orbán regime,” the party’s co-chair, Vula Tsetsi, said in a press release. Karácsony is one of the ’10 to Watch’ in the POLITICO 28: Class of 2026. The Rendőrség, Hungary’s national police force, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Csongor Körömi and Max Griera Andreu contributed to this report.

Europe’s far-right firebrands are rushing to hitch their fortunes to Washington’s new crusade against Brussels. Senior U.S. government officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have launched a raft of criticism against what they call EU “censorship” and an “attack” of U.S. tech companies following a €120 million fine from the European Commission on social media platform X. The fine is for breaching EU transparency obligations under the Digital Services Act, the bloc’s content moderation rule book. “The Commission’s attack on X says it all,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on X on Saturday. “When the Brusselian overlords cannot win the debate, they reach for the fines. Europe needs free speech, not unelected bureaucrats deciding what we can read or say,” he said. “Hats off to Elon Musk for holding the line,” Orbán added. Tech mogul Musk said his response to the penalty would target the EU officials who imposed it.  “The European Commission appreciates censorship & chat control of its citizens. They want to silence critical voices by restricting freedom of speech,” echoed far-right Alternative for Germany leader Alice Weidel. Three right-wing to far-right parties in the EU are pushing to stop and backtrack the integration process of European countries — the European Conservatives and Reformists, the Patriots for Europe, and the Europe of Sovereign Nations. Together they hold 191 out of 720 seats in the European Parliament. The parties’ lawmakers are calling for a range of proposals — from shifting competences from the European to the national level, to dismantling the EU altogether. They defend the primacy of national interests over common European cooperation. Since Donald Trump’s reelection, they have portrayed themselves as the key transatlantic link, mirroring the U.S. president’s political campaigning in Europe, such as pushing for a “Make Europe Great Again” movement. The fresh U.S. criticism of EU institutions has come in handy to amplify their political agendas. “Patriots for Europe will fight to dismantle this censorship regime,” the party said on X. The ECR group — political home to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — issued a statement questioning the enforcement of the DSA following the U.S. criticism. “A digital law that lacks legal certainty risks becoming an instrument of political discretion,” ECR co-chairman Nicola Procaccini said on Saturday after the U.S. backlash. The group supported the DSA when it passed through the Parliament, having said in the past the law would “protect freedom of expression, increase trust in online services and contribute to an open digital economy in Europe.”