BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU
envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia,
the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday.
“The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face
of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a
statement.
Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would
have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its
negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia.
EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the
conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money
on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s
seven-year budget.
A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend
the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal
budgetary needs and the rest for defense.
France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU
defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion
annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan.
However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give
Ukraine as much flexibility as possible.
The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from
third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent
product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also
strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations.
The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and
missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike
capabilities.
If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed
security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in
procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help
cover interest payments on the loan.
The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the
legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images
The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed
in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional
to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme.
Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion
SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the
Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by
Kyiv.
NEXT STEPS
Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine
the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure.
If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches.
The remaining cash will arrive in 2027.
Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and
pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the
Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc.
While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover
Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8
billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund.
By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its
military and budgetary needs this year and next.
Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that
aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that
to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at
this point.
Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
Tag - Banks
Donald Trump’s political war chest grew dramatically in the second half of 2025,
according to new campaign finance disclosures submitted late Saturday, giving
him an unprecedented amount of money for a term-limited president to influence
the midterms and beyond.
Trump raised $26 million through his joint fundraising committee in the back
half of last year, and another $8 million directly into his leadership PAC. And
a super PAC linked to him has more than $300 million in the bank.
All together, a web of campaign accounts, some of which he controls directly and
others under the care of close allies, within the president’s orbit have $375
million in their coffers.
The funds far outstrip those of any other political figure — Republican or
Democrat — entering 2026, and have no real historical precedent. And Trump could
put them to use this year for the midterms, or to shape future elections, even
as he cannot run for president again.
Trump continues to outpace any other Republican in raising money, both from
large and small-dollar donors. His joint fundraising committee — Trump National
Committee, which pools fundraising for a variety of Trump-aligned groups —
accounted for 1 in 8 dollars raised on WinRed, the primary Republican online
fundraising platform, during the second half of 2025, according to a POLITICO
analysis.
And no super PAC raised even half as much in 2025 as the $289 million from MAGA
Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC that both the president and Vice President
J.D. Vance appeared at fundraisers for last year.
Trump has given few clues as to how he might put the funds to use. Trump
National Committee primarily sends funds to the president’s leadership PAC,
Never Surrender, with a bit of money also going to the Republican National
Committee and Vance’s leadership PAC, Working For Ohio.
Candidates cannot use leadership PAC money for their own election efforts. But
the accounts — which are common across Washington and have long been derided by
anti-money in politics groups as “slush funds” — allow politicians to dole out
money to allies or fund political travel.
Never Surrender spent $6.7 million from July through December, with more than
half of that total going toward advertising, digital consulting and direct mail
— expenses typically linked to fundraising.
So far, Trump’s groups have held their powder in Republican primaries. While
Trump has endorsed against a handful of Republican incumbents now locked in
competitive primaries — including Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Rep. Thomas
Massie of Kentucky — and threatened others, he hasn’t used money. A super PAC
targeting Massie, MAGA KY, is run by Trump allies but has largely been funded by
GOP megadonor Paul Singer.
MAGA Inc.’s only election-related spending last year was to boost now-Rep. Matt
Van Epps in the special election in Tennessee’s 7th District.
Trump’s massive war chest makes him a political force, independent of the
traditional party infrastructure. The RNC — which derives a significant portion
of its fundraising from Trump — had $95 million in the bank at the end of the
year, roughly a quarter of what the Trump-linked groups have.
And their rivals at the Democratic National Committee are far worse off — at
just over $14 million, while owing more than $17 million in debt.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney publicly backed Kevin Warsh as the next
chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday, calling him a “fantastic choice,” in a
rare point of alignment amid an escalating U.S.-Canada trade war.
“Kevin Warsh is a fantastic choice to lead the world’s most important central
bank at this crucial time,” Carney wrote on X shortly after President Donald
Trump announced he will nominate the former Fed board member to replace current
chair, Jerome Powell.
Carney is an experienced central banker himself. He oversaw the Bank of Canada
from 2008-2013, briefly overlapping with Warsh’s first tenure as a Fed governor,
before leading the Bank of England from 2013-2020.
The endorsement stood out as relations between the Trump administration and
Canada continue to strain, with Canadian officials warning that Trump’s trade
agenda and broader foreign policy are destabilizing both the U.S. and Canadian
economies.
On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on Canada if it
follows through on a planned trade deal with China. In his latest threat
Thursday, he said he would impose a 50 percent tariff on Canadian-made aircrafts
after a dispute over aviation certification.
“Canada is effectively prohibiting the sale of Gulfstream products in Canada
through this very same certification process,” the president wrote on Truth
Social. “If, for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am
going to charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all Aircraft sold into the United
States of America.”
Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada said U.S. tariffs are expected to have a
“lasting negative impact” on Canada’s economy, citing prolonged uncertainty tied
to Trump’s trade policies.
“It’s pretty clear that the days of open rules-based trade with the United
States are over,” Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem said. “It’s not a good thing
for Americans. It’s not a good thing for Canadians.”
In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Macklem said Trump’s actions
could derail the central bank’s economic forecasts, pointing to Trump’s repeated
tariff threats against Canada and other actions abroad, including repeat
pressure on Greenland and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
“There is unusual potential for a new shock, a new disruption,” he said.
“Geopolitical risks are elevated.”
Macklem also voiced his support for Powell, telling Reuters that he told Powell
in a private conversation that he was “doing a good job under difficult
circumstances.”
Several global central bank leaders, including Macklem, issued a joint
statement earlier this month in support of Powell and the Federal Reserve after
the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chair.
They warned that political pressure on central banks could undermine global
financial stability.
“We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair
Jerome H. Powell,” the statement said. “Chair Powell has served with integrity,
focused on his mandate and an unwavering commitment to the public interest. To
us, he is a respected colleague who is held in the highest regard by all who
have worked with him.”
LONDON — It’s a far cry from the ice age of U.K.-China relations that
characterized Rishi Sunak’s leadership — and it’s not exactly David Cameron’s
“golden era,” either.
As U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer embarks on his Chinese charm offensive
against a turbulent economic backdrop, he has opted for a softly-softly approach
in a bid to warm up one of Britain’s most important trading partners — a marked
departure from his Tory predecessors.
With the specter of U.S. President Donald Trump looming over the visit — not to
mention national security concerns back home — Starmer’s cautious optimism is
hardly surprising.
Despite reservations from China skeptics, Starmer’s trip — the first such visit
by a British prime minister since 2018 — was peppered with warm words and a
smattering of deals, some more consequential than others.
Britain’s haul from the trip may be modest, but it’s just the beginning,
Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle — who joined Starmer on the trip — told
a traveling pack of reporters in Beijing.
“This visit is a springboard,” the minister said. “This is not the last moment,
it is a springboard into a future with far more action to come.”
STEP-BY-STEP
On the ground in Beijing, British officials gave the impression that the prime
minister was focused on getting as many uncontroversial wins over the line as
possible, in a bid to thaw relations with China.
That’s not to say Starmer and his team don’t have a few tangible wins to write
home about. Headline announcements include a commitment from China to allow
visa-free travel for British tourists and business travelers, enabling visits of
up to 30 days without the need for documents.
The provisions are similar to those extended to 50 other countries including
France, Germany, Italy, Australia and Japan. The timings of the visa change have
not yet been set out publicly, but one official — who, like others cited in this
piece, was granted anonymity to speak freely — said they were aiming to get it
nailed down in coming months.
“From a business standpoint, it will reduce a lot of friction,” said a British
business representative, adding it will make it easier for U.K. firms to explore
opportunities and form partnerships. “China is very complicated. You have to be
on the ground to really assess opportunities,” they said, adding visa-free
travel “will make things a lot easier.”
The commitment to visa-free travel forms part of a wider services package aimed
at driving collaboration for businesses in healthcare, financial and
professional services, legal services, education and skills — areas where
British firms often face regulatory or administrative hurdles.
The countries have also agreed to conduct a “feasibility study” to explore
whether to enter negotiations towards a bilateral services agreement. If it goes
ahead, this would establish clear and legally binding rules for U.K. firms doing
business in China. Once again, the timeframe is vague.
David Taylor, head of policy at the Asia House think tank in London, said “Xi’s
language has been warmer and more expansive, signaling interest in stabilizing
the relationship, but the substance on offer so far remains tightly defined.”
“Beyond the immediate announcements, progress — particularly on services and
professional access — will be harder and slower if it happens at all,” he added.
WHISKY TARIFF RELIEF
Another victory talked up by the British government is a plan for China to slash
Scotch whisky tariffs by half, from 10 percent to 5 percent.
However, some may question the scale of the commitment, which effectively
restores the rate that was in place one year ago, ahead of a doubling of the
rate for whisky and brandy in February 2025.
The two sides have not yet set out a timeframe for the reduction of tariffs.
Speaking to POLITICO ahead of Starmer’s trip, a senior business representative
said the whisky and brandy issue had become “China leverage” in talks leading up
to the visit. However, they argued that even a removal of the tariff was “not
going to solve the main issue for British whisky companies in China and
everywhere, which is that people aren’t buying and drinking whisky.”
CHINA INVESTMENT WIN
Meanwhile, China can boast a significant win in the form of a $15 billion
investment in medicines manufacturing and research and development from British
pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca.
ING Bank’s global healthcare lead Stephen Farelly said that increasing
investment into China “makes good business sense,” given the country is “now
becoming a force in biopharma.” However, it “does shine a light on the isolation
of Europe and the U.K. more generally, where there is a structural decline in
investment and R&D.”
AstraZeneca recently paused a £200 million investment at a Cambridge research
site in September last year, which was due to create 1,000 jobs.
Britain recently increased the amount the NHS pays for branded, pharmaceutical
drugs, following heavy industry lobbying and following trade negotiations with
the Trump administration — all in the hopes of attracting new investment into
the struggling sector.
Shadow Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith was blunt in his assessment.
“AstraZeneca’s a great British company but under this government it’s investing
everywhere in the world other than its U.K. home. When we are losing investment
to communist China, alarm bells should be ringing in No 10 Downing Street.”
Conspicuously absent from Starmer’s haul was any mention of net zero
infrastructure imports, like solar panels, a reflection of rising concerns about
China’s grip on Britain’s critical infrastructure.
XI RETURNS
So what next? As Starmer prepares to fly back home, attention has already turned
to his next encounter with the Chinese leader.
On Thursday, Britain opened the door to an inward visit by Xi Jinping, with
Downing Street repeatedly declining to rule out the prospect of welcoming him in
future.
Asked about the prospect of an inward visit — which would be the first for 11
years — Starmer’s official spokesperson told reporters: “I think the prime
minister has been clear that a reset relationship with China, that it’s no
longer in an ice age, is beneficial to British people and British business.”
As Starmer’s trip draws to a close, one thing is certain: there is more to come.
“This isn’t a question of a one-and-done summit with China,” Starmer’s
spokesperson added. “It is a resetting of a relationship that has been on ice
for eight years.”
LONDON — Keir Starmer is off to China to try to lock in some economic wins he
can shout about back home. But some of the trickiest trade issues are already
being placed firmly in the “too difficult” box.
The U.K.’s trade ministry quietly dispatched several delegations to Beijing over
the fall to hash out deals with the Chinese commerce ministry and lay the
groundwork for the British prime minister’s visit, which gets going in earnest
Wednesday.
But the visit comes as Britain faces growing pressure from its Western allies to
combat Chinese industrial overproduction — and just weeks after Starmer handed
his trade chief new powers to move faster in imposing tariffs on cheap,
subsidized imports from countries like China.
For now, then, the aim is to secure progress in areas that are seen as less
sensitive.
Starmer’s delegation of CEOs and chairs will split their time between Beijing
and Shanghai, with executives representing City giants and high-profile British
brands including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Schroders, and the London Stock
Exchange Group, alongside AstraZeneca, Jaguar Land Rover, Octopus Energy, and
Brompton filling out the cast list. Starmer will be flanked on his visit by
Trade Secretary Peter Kyle and City Minister Lucy Rigby.
Despite the weighty delegation, ministers insist the approach is deliberately
narrow.
“We have a very clear-eyed approach when it comes to China,” Security Minister
Dan Jarvis said Monday. “Where it is in our national interest to cooperate and
work closely with [China], then we will do so. But when it’s our national
security interest to safeguard against the threats that [they] pose, we will
absolutely do that.”
Starmer’s wishlist will be carefully calibrated not to rock the boat. Drumming
up Chinese cash for heavy energy infrastructure, including sensitive wind
turbine technology, is off the table.
Instead, the U.K. has been pushing for lower whisky tariffs, improved market
access for services firms, recognition of professional qualifications, banking
and insurance licences for British companies operating in China, easier
cross-border investment, and visa-free travel for short stays.
With China fiercely protective of its domestic market, some of those asks will
be easier said than done. Here’s POLITICO’s pro guide to where it could get
bumpy.
CHAMPIONING THE CITY OF LONDON
Britain’s share of China’s services market was a modest 2.7 percent in 2024 —
and U.K. firms are itching for more work in the country.
British officials have been pushing for recognition of professional
qualifications for accountants, designers and architects — which would allow
professionals to practice in China without re-licensing locally — and visa-free
travel for short stays.
Vocational accreditation is a “long-standing issue” in the bilateral
relationship, with “little movement” so far on persuading Beijing to recognize
U.K. professional credentials as equivalent to its own, according to a senior
industry representative familiar with the talks, who, like others in this
report, was granted anonymity to speak freely.
But while the U.K.’s allies in the European Union and the U.S. have imposed
tariffs on Chinese EVs, the U.K. has resisted pressure to do so. | Jessica
Lee/EPA
Britain is one of the few developed countries still missing from China’s
visa-free list, which now includes France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the
Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia
and Sweden.
Starmer is hoping to mirror a deal struck by Canadian PM Mark Carney, whose own
China visit unlocked visa-free travel for Canadians.
The hope is that easier business travel will reduce friction and make it easier
for people to travel and explore opportunities on the ground — it would allow
visa-free travel for British citizens, giving them the ability to travel for
tourism, attend business conferences, visit friends and family, and participate
in short exchange activities.
SMOOTHING FINANCIAL FLOWS
The Financial Conduct Authority’s Chair Ashley Alder is also flying out to
Beijing, hoping to secure closer alignment between the two countries’ capital
markets. He’ll represent Britain’s financial watchdog at the inaugural U.K-China
Financial Working Group in Beijing — and bang the drum for better market
connectivity between the U.K. and China.
Expect emphasis on the cross-border investments mechanism known as the
Shanghai-London and Shenzhen-London Stock Connect, plus data sovereignty issues
associated with Chinese companies jointly listing on the London Stock Exchange,
two figures familiar with the planning said.
The Stock Connect opened up both markets to investors in 2019 which, according
to FCA Chair Ashley Alder, led to listings worth almost $6 billion.
“Technical obstacles have so far prevented us from realizing Stock Connect’s
full potential,” Alder said in a speech last year. Alder pointed to a memorandum
of understanding being drawn up between the FCA and China’s National Financial
Regulatory Administration, which he said is “critical” to allow information to
be shared quickly and for firms to be supervised across borders. But that raises
its own concerns about Chinese use of data.
“The goods wins are easier,” said a senior British business representative
briefed on the talks. “Some of the service ones are more difficult.”
TAPPING INTO CHINA’S BIOTECH BOOM
Pharma executives, including AstraZeneca’s CEO Pascal Soriot, are among those
heading to China, as Britain tries to burnish its credentials as a global life
sciences hub — and attract foreign direct investment.
China, once known mainly for generics — cheaper versions of branded medicine
that deliver the same treatment — has rapidly emerged as a pharma powerhouse.
According to ING Bank’s global healthcare lead, Stephen Farrelly, the country
has “effectively replaced Europe” as a center of innovation.
ING data shows China’s share of global innovative drug approvals jumped from
just 4 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2024.
Pharma executives, including AstraZeneca’s CEO Pascal Soriot, are among those
heading to China, as Britain tries to burnish its credentials as a global life
sciences hub — and attract foreign direct investment. | John G. Mabanglo/EPA
Several blockbuster drug patents are set to expire in the coming years, opening
the door for cheaper generic competitors. To refill thinning pipelines,
drugmakers are increasingly turning to biotech companies. British pharma giant
GSK signed a licensing deal with Chinese biotech firm Hengrui Pharma last July.
“Because of the increasing relevance of China, the big pharma industry and the
U.K. by definition is now looking to China as a source of those new innovative
therapies,” Farrelly said.
There are already signs of progress. Science Minister Patrick Vallance said late
last year that the U.K. and China are ready to work together in
“uncontroversial” areas, including health, after talks with his Chinese
counterpart. AstraZeneca, the University of Cambridge and Beijing municipal
parties have already signed a partnership to share expertise.
And earlier this year, the U.K. announced plans to become a “global first choice
for clinical trials.”
“The U.K. can really help China with the trust gap” when it comes to getting
drugs onto the market, said Quin Wills, CEO of Ochre, a biotech company
operating in New York, Oxford and Taiwan. “The U.K. could become a global gold
stamp for China. We could be like a regulatory bridgehead where [healthcare
regulator] MHRA, now separate from the EU since Brexit, can do its own thing and
can maybe offer a 150-day streamlined clinical approval process for China as
part of a broader agreement.”
SLASHING WHISKY TARIFFS
The U.K. has also been pushing for lowered tariffs on whisky alongside wider
agri-food market access, according to two of the industry figures familiar with
the planning cited earlier.
Talks at the end of 2024 between then-Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and his
Chinese counterpart ended Covid-era restrictions on exports, reopening pork
market access.
But in February 2025 China doubled its import tariffs on brandy and whisky,
removing its provisional 5 percent tariff and applying the 10 percent
most-favored-nation rate.
“The whisky and brandy issue became China leverage,” said the senior British
business representative briefed on the talks. “I think that they’re probably
going to get rid of the tariff.”
It’s not yet clear how China would lower whisky tariffs without breaching World
Trade Organization rules, which say it would have to lower its tariffs to all
other countries too.
INDUSTRIAL TENSIONS
The trip comes as the U.K. faces growing international pressure to take a
tougher line on Chinese industrial overproduction, particularly of steel and
electric cars.
But in February 2025 China doubled its import tariffs on brandy and whisky,
removing its provisional 5 percent tariff and applying the 10 percent
most-favored-nation rate. | Yonhap/EPA
But while the U.K.’s allies in the European Union and the U.S. have imposed
tariffs on Chinese EVs, the U.K. has resisted pressure to do so.
There’s a deal “in the works” between Chinese EV maker and Jaguar Land Rover,
said the senior British business representative briefed on the talks quoted
higher, where the two are “looking for a big investment announcement. But
nothing has been agreed.” The deal would see the Chinese EV maker use JLR’s
factory in the U.K. to build cars in Britain, the FT reported last week.
“Chinese companies are increasingly focused on localising their operations,”
said another business representative familiar with the talks, noting Chinese EV
makers are “realising that just flaunting their products overseas won’t be a
sustainable long term model.”
It’s unlikely Starmer will land a deal on heavy energy infrastructure, including
wind turbine technology, that could leave Britain vulnerable to China. The U.K.
has still not decided whether to let Ming Yang, a Chinese firm, invest £1.5
billion in a wind farm off the coast of Scotland.
Europe isn’t doomed to inexorable decline — and in fact is doing better than
most people realize, said the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva.
Much of the European Union’s policymaking bubble has been gripped with despair
since the bloc’s weakness was exposed during a recent confrontation with the
U.S. over Greenland.
While U.S. President Donald Trump eventually backed down, the European military
response — sending a symbolic handful of soldiers to the North Atlantic island —
underlined that had the White House really wanted to seize Greenland, Europeans
would have had no choice but to accede.
But in an interview with POLITICO, Georgieva, managing director of the
International Monetary Fund, said the pessimism was misplaced.
In an end-of-year shortlist of top-performing economies put together by the
Economist, she noted, the top 10 included seven EU countries, with Portugal in
the top spot. The Iberian economy has recorded steady growth while comfortably
paying down its debt in the past few years.
That’s a fact, she said, that should be celebrated.
“Europeans — we are modest people. We don’t brag,” the IMF head stated.
She recalled how a U.S. colleague had recently done “something marginal.”
“He said ‘oh, let’s look at this. I’m great. I’m fantastic,’” Georgieva
recounted. “In Europe you do something great and you say ‘not too bad.’ In this
world we are in now, you have to brag a little, exude confidence.”
Even before the Greenland standoff, a sense of despair had settled over the top
echelons of European economic decision-making. Mario Draghi, former head of the
European Central Bank, warned that the bloc faced “slow agony” if it didn’t
reform.
Georgieva acknowledged the increasingly sharp-elbowed way in which countries now
operate — one that leaves little room for multilateral organizations like her
own IMF. In a speech earlier on Monday she acknowledged that the world had
become “multipolar” — code for a new era of jostling geopolitical blocs that has
replaced unilateral American dominance.
Speaking to POLITICO, Georgieva said that “geopolitical factors play an
increasingly bigger role in defining the world economy.” On Greenland, she said
the fact that “allies find it more difficult to retain their sense of common
purpose” was a “significant change.”
But she insisted that the “destiny of Europe is in the hands of Europeans.” The
IMF’s list of advice to reform the EU’s economy echoes Draghi’s own, contained
in his competitiveness report from 2024: They include strengthening the single
market, cutting regulations on businesses, and integrating the continent’s
fragmented energy and financial systems.
Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, warned that the bloc
faced “slow agony” if it didn’t reform. | Olivier Matthys/EPA
Georgieva said it was “paramount” for the EU to press ahead with reform. “Get
your own house in order,” she said.
Three of the Economist shortlist’s best-performing countries — Ireland, Portugal
and Greece — were put under IMF supervision at the height of the eurozone
crisis. There, they had to agree to painful adjustments known as structural
reform programs, which included tax hikes and brutal cuts to public services. In
the case of Greece in particular, those structural reforms resulted in a sharp
increase in unemployment and poverty levels; gross domestic product per capita
is still not at its pre-crisis level.
But, said Georgieva, their current success is proof that countries, and the EU
as a whole, can change their economic trajectories.
Asked whether Europe should consider retaliating against U.S. aggression by
selling off assets like government bonds, a suggestion included in a recent
analyst report from Deutsche Bank, the senior official urged caution.
“I would say that the smooth functioning of the international monetary system is
of value to all countries,” she said. “Disturbing that smooth functioning of the
international monetary system with the same token can bring negative impact.”
The Bulgarian boss of the Washington, D.C.-based fund did, however, back a
deeper pool of joint EU debt — an idea favored by Draghi but regarded with
suspicion by frugal countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
As for the disbursement of $8.1 billion in IMF funds to Ukraine to help the
country meet its financing needs, Georgieva said she was aiming to hold an IMF
board meeting in the second half of `February at which the board could approve
the program and start paying out funds. Though the amount is relatively small —
less than a tenth of the €90 billion that the EU has agreed to lend to Ukraine —
IMF approval is a signal of confidence for financial markets.
The IMF chief also said that a meeting “is scheduled” with U.S. Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the situation in Venezuela, and that it would
happen in the “nearest future.”
The IMF stopped working with Venezuela in 2019. The fund estimates that the
South American country’s economy, battered by U.S. sanctions and plagued by
mismanagement, has shrunk to a third of its previous largest size. Since the
U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at the start of the year, it
has floated the possibility of allowing Venezuela to access IMF financing again.
LONDON — British ministers have been laying the ground for Keir Starmer’s
handshake with Xi Jinping in Beijing this week ever since Labour came to power.
In a series of behind-closed-door speeches in China and London, obtained by
POLITICO, ministers have sought to persuade Chinese and British officials,
academics and businesses that rebuilding the trade and investment relationship
is essential — even as economic security threats loom.
After a “Golden Era” in relations trumpeted by Tory Prime Minister David
Cameron, Britain’s once-close ties to the Asian superpower began to unravel in
the late 2010s. By 2019, Boris Johnson had frozen trade and investment talks
after a Beijing-led crackdown on Hong Kong’s democracy movement. At Donald
Trump’s insistence, Britain stripped Chinese telecoms giant Huawei from its
telecoms infrastructure over security concerns.
Starmer — who is expected to meet Xi on a high-stakes trip to Beijing this week
— set out to revive an economic relationship that had hit the rocks. The extent
of the reset undertaken by the PM’s cabinet is revealed in the series of
speeches by ministers instrumental to his China policy over the past year,
including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, then-Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Energy
Secretary Ed Miliband, and former Indo-Pacific, investment, city and trade
ministers.
Months before security officials completed an audit of Britain’s exposure to
Chinese interference last June, ministers were pushing for closer collaboration
between the two nations on energy and financial systems, and the eight sectors
of Labour’s industrial strategy.
“Six of those eight sectors have national security implications,” said a senior
industry representative, granted anonymity to speak freely about their
interactions with government. “When you speak to [the trade department] they
frame China as an opportunity. When you speak to the Foreign, Commonwealth and
Development Office, it’s a national security risk.”
While Starmer’s reset with China isn’t misguided, “I think we’ve got to be much
more hard headed about where we permit Chinese investment into the economy in
the future,” said Labour MP Liam Byrne, chair of the House of Commons Business
and Trade Committee.
Lawmakers on his committee are “just not convinced that the investment strategy
that is unfolding between the U.K. and China is strong enough for the future and
increased coercion risks,” he said.
As Trump’s tariffs bite, Beijing’s trade surplus is booming and “we’ve got to be
realistic that China is likely to double down on its Made in China approach and
target its export surplus at the U.K.,” Byrne said. China is the U.K.’s
fifth-largest trade partner, and data to June of last year show U.K. exports to
China dropping 10.4 percent year-on-year while imports rose 4.3 percent.
“That’s got the real potential to flood our markets with goods that are full of
Chinese subsidies, but it’s also got the potential to imperil key sectors of our
economy, in particular the energy system,” Byrne warned.
A U.K. government spokesperson said: “Since the election, the Government has
been consistently transparent about our approach to China – which we are clear
will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.
“We will cooperate where we can and challenge where we must, never compromising
on our national security. We reject the old ‘hot and cold’ diplomacy that failed
to protect our interests or support our growth.”
While Zheng Zeguang’s speech was released online, the Foreign Office refused to
provide Catherine West’s own address when requested at the time. | Jordan
Pettitt/PA Images via Getty Images
CATHERINE WEST, INDO-PACIFIC MINISTER, SEPTEMBER 2024
Starmer’s ministers began resetting relations in earnest on the evening of Sept.
25, 2024 at the luxury Peninsula Hotel in London’s Belgravia, where rooms go for
£800 a night. Some 400 guests, including a combination of businesses, British
government and Chinese embassy officials, gathered to celebrate the 75th
anniversary of the People’s Republic of China — a milestone for Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) rule.
“I am honored to be invited to join your celebration this evening,” then
Indo-Pacific Minister Catherine West told the room, kicking off her keynote
following a speech by China’s ambassador to the U.K., Zheng Zeguang.
“Over the last 75 years, China’s growth has been exponential; in fields like
infrastructure, technology and innovation which have reverberated across the
globe,” West said, according to a Foreign Office briefing containing the speech
obtained through freedom of information law. “Both our countries have seen the
benefits of deepening our trade and economic ties.”
While London and Beijing won’t always see eye-to-eye, “the U.K. will cooperate
with China where we can. We recognise we will also compete in other areas — and
challenge where we need to,” West told the room, including 10 journalists from
Chinese media, including Xinhua, CGTN and China Daily.
While Zheng’s speech was released online, the Foreign Office refused to provide
West’s own address when requested at the time. Freedom of information officers
later provided a redacted briefing “to protect information that would be likely
to prejudice relations.”
DAVID LAMMY, FOREIGN SECRETARY, OCTOBER 2024
As foreign secretary, David Lammy made his first official overseas visit in the
job with a two-day trip to Beijing and Shanghai. He met Chinese Foreign Minister
Wang Yi in Beijing on Oct. 18, a few weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump’s
re-election. Britain and China’s top diplomats discussed climate change, trade
and global foreign policy challenges.
“I met with Director Wang Yi yesterday and raised market access issues with him
directly,” Lammy told a roundtable of British businesses at Shanghai’s Regent On
The Bund hotel the following morning, noting that he hoped greater dialogue
between the two nations would break down trade barriers.
“At the same time, I remain committed to protecting the U.K.’s national
security,” Lammy said. “In most sectors of the economy, China brings
opportunities through trade and investment, and this is where continued
collaboration is of great importance to me,” he told firms. Freedom of
information officers redacted portions of Lammy’s speech so it wouldn’t
“prejudice relations” with China.
Later that evening, the then-foreign secretary gave a speech at the Jean
Nouvel-designed Pudong Museum of Art to 200 business, education, arts and
culture representatives.
China is “the world’s biggest emitter” of CO2, Lammy told them in his prepared
remarks obtained by freedom of information law. “But also the world’s biggest
producer of renewable energy. This is a prime example of why I was keen to visit
China this week. And why this government is committed to a long-term, strategic
approach to relations.”
Shanghai continues “to play a key role in trade and investment links with the
rest of the world as well,” he said, pointing to the “single biggest” ever
British investment in China: INEOS Group’s $800 million plastics plant in
Zhejiang.
“We welcome Chinese investment for clear mutual benefit the other way too,”
Lammy said. “This is particularly the case in clean energy, where we are both
already offshore wind powerhouses and the costs of rolling out more clean energy
are falling rapidly.”
“We welcome Chinese investment for clear mutual benefit the other way too,”
David Lammy said. | Adam Vaughan/EPA
POPPY GUSTAFSSON, INVESTMENT MINISTER, NOVEMBER 2024
Just days after Starmer and President Xi met for the first time at the G20 that
November, Poppy Gustafsson, then the British investment minister, told a
U.K.-China trade event at a luxury hotel on Mayfair’s Park Lane that “we want to
open the door to more investment in our banking and insurance industries.”
The event, co-hosted by the Bank of China UK and attended by Chinese Ambassador
Zheng Zeguang and 400 guests, including the U.K. heads of several major China
business and financial institutions, is considered the “main forum for
U.K.-China business discussion,” according to a briefing package prepared for
Gustafsson.
“We want to see more green initiatives like Red Rock Renewables who are
unlocking hundreds of megawatts in new capacity at wind farms off the coast of
Scotland — boosting this Government’s mission to become a clean energy
superpower by 2030,” Gustafsson told attendees, pointing to the project owned
by China’s State Development and Investment Group.
The number one objective for her speech, officials instructed the minister, was
to “affirm the importance of engaging with China on trade and investment and
cooperating on shared multilateral interests.”
And she was told to “welcome Chinese investment which supports U.K. growth and
the domestic industry through increased exports and wider investment across the
economy and in the Industrial Strategy priority sectors.” The Chinese
government published a readout of Gustafsson and Zheng’s remarks.
RACHEL REEVES, CHANCELLOR, JANUARY 2025
By Jan. 11 last year, Chancellor Rachel Reeves was in Beijing with British
financial and professional services giants like Abrdn, Standard Chartered, KPMG,
the London Stock Exchange, Barclays and Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey in
tow. She was there to meet with China’s Vice-Premier He Lifeng to reopen one of
the key financial and investment talks with Beijing Boris Johnson froze in 2019.
Before Reeves and He sat down for the China-U.K. Economic and Financial
Dialogue, Britain’s chancellor delivered an address alongside the vice-premier
to kick off a parallel summit for British and Chinese financial services firms,
according to an agenda for the summit shared with POLITICO. Reeves was also due
to attend a dinner the evening of the EFD and then joined a business delegation
travelling to Shanghai where she held a series of roundtables.
Releasing any of her remarks from these events through freedom of information
law “would be likely to prejudice” relations with China, the Treasury said. “It
is crucial that HM Treasury does not compromise the U.K.’s interests in China.”
Reeves’ visit to China paved the way for the revival of a long-dormant series of
high-level talks to line up trade and investment wins, including the China-U.K.
Energy Dialogue in March and U.K.-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission
(JETCO) last September.
EMMA REYNOLDS, CITY MINISTER, MARCH 2025
“Growth is the U.K. government’s number one mission. It is the foundation of
everything else we hope to achieve in the years ahead. We recognise that China
will play a very important part in this,” Starmer’s then-City Minister Emma
Reynolds told the closed-door U.K.-China Business Forum in central London early
last March.
Reeves’ restart of trade and investment talks “agreed a series of commitments
that will deliver £600 million for British businesses,” Reynolds told the
gathering, which included Chinese electric vehicle firm BYD, HSBC, Standard
Chartered, KPMG and others. This would be achieved by “enhancing links between
our financial markets,” she said.
“As the world’s most connected international financial center and home to
world-leading financial services firms, the City of London is the gateway of
choice for Chinese financial institutions looking to expand their global reach,”
Reynolds said.
Ed Miliband traveled to Beijing in mid-March for the first China-U.K. Energy
Dialogue since 2019. | Tolga Akmen/EPA
ED MILIBAND, ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARY, MARCH 2025
With Starmer’s Chinese reset in full swing, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband
traveled to Beijing in mid-March for the first China-U.K. Energy Dialogue since
2019.
Britain’s energy chief wouldn’t gloss over reports of human rights violations in
China’s solar supply chain — on which the U.K. is deeply reliant for delivering
its lofty renewables goals — when he met with China’s Vice Premier Ding
Xuexiang, a British government official said at the time. “We maybe agree to
disagree on some things,” they said.
But the U.K. faces “a clean energy imperative,” Miliband told students and
professors during a lecture at Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University, which counts
Xi Jinping and former Chinese President Hu Jintao as alumni. “The demands of
energy security, affordability and sustainability now all point in the same
direction: investing in clean energy at speed and at scale,” Miliband said,
stressing the need for deeper U.K.-China collaboration as the U.K. government
reaches towards “delivering a clean power system by 2030.”
“In the eight months since our government came to office we have been speeding
ahead on offshore wind, onshore wind, solar, nuclear, hydrogen and [Carbon
Capture, Usage, and Storage],” Britain’s energy chief said. “Renewables are now
the cheapest form of power to build and operate — and of course, much of this
reflects technological developments driven by what is happening here in China.”
“The U.K. and China share a recognition of the urgency of acting on the climate
crisis in our own countries and accelerating this transition around the world —
and we must work together to do so,” Miliband said, in his remarks obtained
through freedom of information law.
DOUGLAS ALEXANDER, ECONOMIC SECURITY MINISTER, APRIL 2025
During a trip to China in April last year, then-Trade Minister Douglas Alexander
met his counterpart to prepare to relaunch key trade and investment talks. The
trip wasn’t publicized by the U.K. side.
According to a Chinese government readout, the China-UK Joint Economic and Trade
Commission would promote “cooperation in trade and investment, and industrial
and supply chains” between Britain’s trade secretary and his Chinese equivalent.
After meeting Vice Minister and Deputy China International Trade Representative
Ling Ji, Minister Alexander gave a speech at China’s largest consumer goods
expo near the country’s southernmost point on the island province of Hainan.
Alexander extended his “sincere thanks” to China’s Ministry of Commerce and the
Hainan Provincial Government “for inviting the U.K. to be the country of honour
at this year’s expo.”
“We must speak often and candidly about areas of cooperation and, yes, of
contention too, where there are issues on which we disagree,” the trade policy
and economic security minister said, according to a redacted copy of his speech
obtained under freedom of information law.
“We are seeing joint ventures and collaboration between Chinese and U.K. firms
on a whole host of different areas … in renewable energy, in consumer goods, and
in banking and finance,” Alexander later told some of the 27 globally renowned
British retailers, including Wedgwood, in another speech during the U.K.
pavilion opening ceremony.
“We are optimistic about the potential for deeper trade and investment
cooperation — about the benefits this will bring to the businesses showcasing
here, and those operating throughout China’s expansive market.”
BRUSSELS — The U.S. and EU are hoping to attract $800 billion of public and
private funds to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia ends its full-scale invasion,
according to a document obtained by POLITICO.
The 18-page document outlines a 10-year plan to guarantee Ukraine’s recovery
with a fast-tracked path toward EU membership. The European Commission
circulated the plans with EU capitals ahead of the leaders’ summit Thursday
evening where the document, dated Jan. 22, was addressed, according to three EU
officials and diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the sensitive
topic.
While Brussels and Washington are lining up hundreds of billions of dollars in
long-term funding and pitching Ukraine as a future EU member and investment
destination, the strategy hinges on a ceasefire that remains elusive — leaving
the prosperity plan vulnerable as long as the fighting continues.
The funding strategy stretches until 2040 alongside an immediate 100-day
operational plan to get the project off the ground. But the prosperity plan will
struggle to attract outside investment if the conflict rumbles on, according to
the world’s largest money manager, BlackRock, which is advising on the
reconstruction plan in a pro-bono capacity.
“Think about it. If you’re a pension fund, you’re fiduciary towards your
clients, your pensioners. It’s nearly impossible to invest into a war zone,”
BlackRock’s vice chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, said Wednesday in an interview at
the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I think it has to be sequenced and that’s
going to take some time.”
The prosperity plan is part of a 20-point peace blueprint that the U.S. is
attempting to broker between Kyiv and Moscow. It explicitly assumes that
security guarantees are already in place and is not intended as a military
roadmap. Instead, it focuses on how Ukraine can transition from emergency
assistance to self-sustaining prosperity.
A three-way meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. will take place in Abu
Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, as the all-out conflict nears its fourth
anniversary. The U.S. is set to play a prominent role in Ukraine’s recovery.
Rather than framing Washington primarily as a donor, the document positioned the
U.S. as a strategic economic partner, investor and credibility anchor for
Ukraine’s recovery.
The note anticipates direct participation by U.S. companies and expertise on the
ground, and highlights America’s role as a mobilizer of private
capital. BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, has sat in on peace talks with
Kyiv alongside U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his
special envoy, Steve Witkoff.
SHOW ME THE MONEY
Over the next 10 years, the EU, the U.S. and international financial bodies,
including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have pledged to
spend $500 billion of public and private capital, the document said.
The Commission intends to spend a further €100 billion on Kyiv through budget
support and investment guarantees, as part of the bloc’s next seven-year budget
from 2028. This funding is expected to unlock €207 billion in investments for
Ukraine. The U.S. pledged to mobilize capital through a dedicated U.S.-Ukraine
Reconstruction Investment Fund, but did not attach a figure.
While Trump has slashed military and humanitarian support to Ukraine during the
war, it showed willingness to invest in the country after the end of the
conflict. Washington said in the document that it will invest in critical
minerals, infrastructure, energy and technology projects in Ukraine.
But business is unlikely to boom before the eastern front falls silent.
“It’s very hard to see that happening at scale as long as you have drones and
missiles flying,” BlackRock’s Hildebrand said.
Kathryn Carlson reported from Davos, Switzerland.
BRUSSELS — Only a few days ago, EU diplomats and officials were whispering
furtively about the idea they might one day need to think about how to push back
against Donald Trump. They’re not whispering anymore.
Trump’s attempt, as EU leaders saw it, to “blackmail” them with the threat of
tariffs into letting him take the sovereign Danish island of Greenland provoked
a howl of outrage — and changed the world.
Previous emergency summits in Brussels focused on existential risks to the
European Union, like the eurozone crisis, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, and
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This week, the EU’s 27 leaders cleared their
diaries to discuss the assault they faced from America.
There can be little doubt that the transatlantic alliance has now been
fundamentally transformed from a solid foundation for international law and
order into a far looser arrangement in which neither side can be sure of the
other.
“Trust was always the foundation for our relations with the United States,” said
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk as he arrived for the summit in Brussels on
Thursday night. “We respected and accepted American leadership. But what we need
today in our politics is trust and respect among all partners here, not
domination and for sure not coercion. It doesn’t work in our world.”
The catalyst for the rupture in transatlantic relations was the U.S. president’s
announcement on Saturday that he would hit eight European countries with tariffs
of 10 percent for opposing his demand to annex Greenland.
That was just the start. In an avalanche of pressure, he then canceled his
support for the U.K. premier’s decision to hand over the Chagos Islands, home to
an important air base, to Mauritius; threatened France with tariffs on Champagne
after Macron snubbed his Board of Peace initiative; slapped down the Norwegian
prime minister over a Nobel Peace Prize; and ultimately dropped his threats both
to take Greenland by military force and to hit countries that oppose him with
tariffs.
Here was a leader, it seemed to many watching EU officials, so wild and
unpredictable that he couldn’t even remain true to his own words.
But what dismayed the professional political class in Brussels and beyond was
more mundane: Trump’s decision to leak the private text messages he’d received
directly from other world leaders by publishing them to his 11.6 million
followers on social media.
Trump’s screenshots of his phone revealed French President Emmanuel Macron
offering to host a G7 meeting in Paris, and to invite the Russians in the
sidelines. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who once called Trump “daddy,”
also found his private text to Trump made public, in which he praised the
president’s “incredible” achievements, adding: “Can’t wait to see you.”
Leaking private messages “is not acceptable — you just don’t do it,” said one
senior diplomat, like others, on condition of anonymity because the matter is
sensitive. “It’s so important. After this, no one can trust him. If you were any
leader you wouldn’t tell him anything. And this is a crucial means of
communication because it is quick and direct. Now everything will go through
layers of bureaucracy.”
Mark Carney had been one of the classic Davos set and was a regular attendee:
suave, a little smug, and seeming entirely comfortable among snow-covered peaks
and even loftier clientele. | Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA
The value of direct contact through phone texts is well known to the leaders of
Europe, who, as POLITICO revealed, have even set up their own private group chat
to discuss how to respond when Trump does something inflammatory. Such messages
enable ministers and officials at all levels to coordinate solutions before
public statements have to be made, the same senior diplomat said. “If you don’t
have trust, you can’t work together anymore.”
NO MORE NATO
Diplomats and officials now fear the breakdown in personal trust between
European leaders and Trump has potentially grave ramifications.
Take NATO. The military alliance is, at its core, a promise: that member
countries will back each other up and rally to their defense if one of them
comes under attack. Once that promise looks less than solid, the power of NATO
to deter attacks is severely undermined. That’s why Denmark’s Prime Minister
Mette Frederiksen warned that if Trump invaded the sovereign Danish territory of
Greenland it would be the end of NATO.
The fact he threatened to do so has already put the alliance into intensive
care, another diplomat said.
Asked directly if she could still trust the U.S. as she arrived at the Brussels
summit, Frederiksen declined to say yes. “We have been working very closely with
the United States for many years,” she replied. “But we have to work together
respectfully, without threatening each other.”
European leaders now face two tasks: To bring the focus back to the short-term
priorities of peace in Ukraine and resolving tensions over Greenland; and then
to turn their attention to mapping out a strategy for navigating a very
different world. The question of trust, again, underpins both.
When it comes to Ukraine, European leaders like Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz
and the U.K.’s Keir Starmer have spent endless hours trying to persuade Trump
and his team that providing Kyiv with an American military element underpinning
security guarantees is the only way to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin
from attacking again in future.
Given how unreliable Trump has been as an ally to Europe, officials are now
privately asking what those guarantees are really worth. Why would Russia take
America’s word seriously? Why not, in a year or two, test it to make sure?
THE POST-DAVOS WORLD
Then there’s the realignment of the entire international system.
There was something ironic about the setting for Trump’s assaults on the
established world order, and about the identities of those who found themselves
the harbingers of its end.
Among the snow-covered slopes of the Swiss resort of Davos, the world’s business
and political elite gather each year to polish their networks, promote their
products, brag about their successes, and party hard. The super rich, and the
occasional president, generally arrive by helicopter.
As a central bank governor, Mark Carney had been one of the classic Davos set
and was a regular attendee: suave, a little smug, and seeming entirely
comfortable among snow-covered peaks and even loftier clientele.
Now prime minister of Canada, this sage of the centrist liberal orthodoxy had a
shocking insight to share with his tribe: “Today,” Carney began this week, “I’ll
talk about the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story, and the
beginning of a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not
subject to any constraints.”
“The rules-based order is fading,” he intoned, to be replaced by a world of
“great power rivalry” in which “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer
what they must.”
“The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a
strategy.”
Carney impressed those European officials watching. He even quoted Finnish
President Alexander Stubb, who has enjoyed outsized influence in recent months
due to the connections he forged with Trump on the golf course.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who once called Donald Trump “daddy,” also
found his private text to Donald Trump made public, in which he praised the
president’s “incredible” achievements, adding: “Can’t wait to see you.” | Jim
lo Scalzo/EPA
Ultimately, Carney had a message for what he termed “middle powers” — countries
like Canada. They could, he argued, retreat into isolation, building up their
defenses against a hard and lawless world. Or they could build something
“better, stronger and more just” by working together, and diversifying their
alliances. Canada, another target of Trump’s territorial ambitions, has just
signed a major partnership agreement with China.
As they prepared for the summit in Brussels, European diplomats and officials
contemplated the same questions. One official framed the new reality as the
“post-Davos” world. “Now that the trust has gone, it’s not coming back,” another
diplomat said. “I feel the world has changed fundamentally.”
A GOOD CRISIS
It will be up to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her team
to devise ways to push the continent toward greater self-sufficiency, a state
that Macron has called “strategic autonomy,” the diplomat said. This should
cover energy, where the EU has now become reliant on imports of American gas.
The most urgent task is to reimagine a future for European defense that does not
rely on NATO, the diplomat said. Already, there are many ideas in the air. These
include a European Security Council, which would have the nuclear-armed non-EU
U.K. as a member. Urgent efforts will be needed to create a drone industry and
to boost air defenses.
The European Commission has already proposed a 100,000-strong standing EU army,
so why not an elite special forces division as well? The Commission’s officials
are world experts at designing common standards for manufacturing, which leaves
them well suited to the task of integrating the patchwork of weapons systems
used by EU countries, the same diplomat said.
Yet there is also a risk. Some officials fear that with Trump’s having backed
down and a solution to the Greenland crisis now apparently much closer, EU
leaders will lose the focus and clarity about the need for change they gained
this past week. In a phrase often attributed to Churchill, the risk is that EU
countries will “let a good crisis go to waste.”
Domestic political considerations will inevitably make it harder for national
governments to commit funding to shared EU defense projects. As hard-right
populism grows in major regional economies, like France, the U.K. and Germany,
making the case for “more Europe” is harder than ever for the likes of Macron,
Starmer and Merz. Even if NATO is in trouble, selling a European army will be
tough.
While these leaders know they can no longer trust Trump’s America with Europe’s
security, many of them lack the trust of their own voters to do what might be
required instead.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said he doesn’t like banks and will scrap interest
payments British lenders receive through the Bank of England’s quantitative
easing program.
The Reform Party included the proposal to end the practice of the U.K. central
bank paying interest on the reserves placed with it by banks in its 2024
manifesto, which it claimed would bring in up to £40 billion for taxpayers.
“We are going to do it. Some of the banks won’t like it. Well, I don’t like the
banks very much because they debanked me, didn’t they?” Farage said in an
interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
“This will be tough for banks to accept, but I am sorry, the drain on public
finances is just too great. It’s not a tax. They are just not going to get free
money anymore. They’ll adjust; business always does.”
The BoE currently pays interest on the bank reserves created during the
post-global financial crisis quantitative easing (QE) program. That money is now
largely held on deposit back at the BoE by commercial banks, which earn a
risk-free return linked to the current Bank Rate.
Amid concerns about what a Reform government would mean for policymakers’
independence, Farage declared that he’s “not questioning the independence” of
the central bank, but didn’t rule out appointing his own governor.
“Andrew Bailey is a perfectly polite, nice man, but they should have picked
somebody who was a Brexiteer to be in charge of the Bank of England to think
totally differently, especially around financial markets, financial market
regulation,” he said.
“If we don’t do things differently, we’re going to get poorer. We’re going to
pick different people with a different attitude towards everything.”
Farage has recently claimed he is giving “serious thought” to scrapping the
independent Office for Budget Responsibility if his party wins the next general
election.