Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Im März stehen die ersten zwei von insgesamt fünf Landtagswahlen an. Baden-Württemberg und Rheinland-Pfalz sind der Auftakt. In der CDU derweil sind Vorschläge zur Abschaffung der”Lifestyle-Teilzeit” und der Streichung von Kassenleistung für den Zahnarztbesuch derweil Anlass für Unruhe. Die einen äußern sich, die anderen sind verärgert und kassieren die Ideen so schnell ein, wie sie gemacht werden.  Eine Partei sucht öffentlich ihre Linie und das macht die Wahlkämpfer unglücklich. Rasmus Buchsteiner berichtet von der Flatterstimmung und dem Versuch, unter anderem vor und auf dem CDU-Parteitag in Stuttgart den Schaden zu begrenzen. Außerdem bespricht er mit Gordon, wie die ausbleibenden Fortschritte bei den versprochenen Reformen die Situation mit ausgelöst haben. Gleichzeitig geht es für die SPD in den Umfragen bergauf. Zumindest in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Dort ist die AfD der Hauptgegner für die amtierende Ministerpräsidentin Manuela Schwesig. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht sie darüber, wie sie den Moment für sich nutzen und für ihre Partei nutzen will. Außerdem: Der Kanzler bricht heute zu seiner ersten offiziellen Reise in die Golfregion auf. Tom Schmidtgen vom Pro-Newsletter ‘Industrie und Handel am Morgen’ über den neuen wichtigen Partner Saudi-Arabien, der sich nicht nur seiner strategisch guten Lage, sondern auch seiner wirtschaftlichen Stärke bewusst ist.  Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

LONDON —  Keir Starmer lands in China trying to do everything at once. As his government searches desperately for economic growth, the prime minister’s policy is to cooperate, compete with, and, where appropriate, challenge the Asian superpower. That’s easier said than done. POLITICO asked five China analysts — ranging from former government ministers to ex-diplomats — to give their honest take on how the British PM should handle the days ahead. DON’T LECTURE — VINCE CABLE, FORMER BUSINESS SECRETARY Vince Cable, who visited China three times as U.K. business secretary between 2010 and 2015, says Starmer must not give Chinese President Xi Jinping public lectures. It will be tempting, given China’s human rights record. U.K. lawmakers are particularly concerned about Beijing’s treatment of Uyghur Muslims and Hong Kongers. “From experience, that just antagonizes people. They’ll respond in kind and will remind us about all the bad things the British have done throughout our history. You’ll get absolutely nowhere,” Cable, a former Liberal Democrat leader who wrote “The Chinese Conundrum: Engagement or Conflict” after leaving office, said.  Raising concerns in private is more likely to get a positive result, he thinks. “Although I’m by no means an admirer of President [Donald] Trump … his approach, which is business-like and uses actually quite respectful language in public, has actually had far more success in dealing with the Chinese than the traditional missionary approach of some Western European countries,” Cable adds.  LISTEN AND SPEAK UP — BEN BLAND, CHATHAM HOUSE ASIA-PACIFIC PROGRAM DIRECTOR Ben Bland, director of the Chatham House think tank’s Asia-Pacific program, warns there can’t be a return to the “naive optimism” of the “golden era” under Cameron. Britain should “listen to the Chinese leadership and try and understand more about how [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and other senior communist leaders see the world, how they see China,” the former Financial Times South China correspondent says. “The U.K.’s ability to influence China directly is quite limited, but it’s really important that we understand what they’re trying to do in the world.” Starmer should be clear about the U.K.’s red lines on espionage, interference in British society, and the harassment of people living in this country, Bland says. Vince Cable, who visited China three times as U.K. business secretary between 2010 and 2015, says Starmer must not give Chinese President Xi Jinping public lectures. | Andy Rain/EPA TREAT TRADE CAUTIOUSLY — CHARLES PARTON, FORMER DIPLOMAT “The Chinese are adept at the propaganda of these visits, and ensuring that everything seems wonderful,” Charles Parton, an ex-diplomat who was First Counsellor to the EU Delegation in Beijing between 2011 and 2016, warns.   “There’s an awful lot of strange counting going on of [investment] deals that have already been signed, deals that are on the cards to be signed [and] deals that are glimmers in the eye and almost certainly won’t be signed,” Parton, now an adviser to the Council on Geostrategy think tank, says. “Trade is highly fungible. It’s not political,” Parton, who is also a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute, adds. “We shouldn’t be saying to ourselves ‘oh my gosh, we better knuckle down to whatever the Chinese want of us, because otherwise our trade and investment will suffer’,” he believes. “If you can push through trade investment which is beneficial — excellent. That’s great, but let’s not think that this is the be-all and end-all,” he warns. SEE CHINA AS IT IS — LUKE DE PULFORD, INTER-PARLIAMENTARY ALLIANCE ON CHINA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR  Luke De Pulford, executive director of the hawkish global cross-party Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, is skeptical about the timing of Starmer’s China trip —  a week after ministers gave planning approval for Beijing’s controversial mega embassy in London. “Going to China against that backdrop, to look as if you’re going to make national security concessions in the hope of economic preferment, is unwise,” he says. He is also doubtful that closer ties with Beijing will improve the British economy. “All of the evidence seems to point towards China investing in the U.K. only in as far as it suits their strategic interests,” De Pulford says. “There’s a lot to lose and not very much to gain.”  Prioritizing the U.K. agenda will be paramount for Starmer. “There’s nothing wrong at all with visiting China if you’re going to represent your interests and the United Kingdom’s interests,” he says, while remaining doubtful that this will be achieved. SET OUT A CHINA STRATEGY — EVIE ASPINALL, BRITISH FOREIGN POLICY GROUP DIRECTOR  Securing a “symbolic, long-term relationship” with China should be a priority for Starmer, Evie Aspinall, who leads the non-partisan British Foreign Policy Group think tank, says. She wants the U.K.’s China Audit to be published in full, warning businesses “don’t have a strong understanding of what the U.K.’s approach is.”  The audit was launched in late 2024 to allow the government to understand Beijing’s threats and opportunities, but its findings have not been published in detail because much of its content is classified. “I think that’s a fundamental limitation,” Aspinall says, pointing out it is businesses which will generate the growth Starmer wants.  U.K. businesses need to know they “will be supported around some of those risks if they do decide to engage more closely with China,” she says.   

European leaders descend on Brussels this evening for a crunch summit with the transatlantic relationship top of their agenda. U.S. President Donald Trump backed down Wednesday from his most belligerent threats about seizing Greenland from Denmark, but that hasn’t assuaged European concerns about America’s posture toward Europe. It’s another busy day in Davos too, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaking and Trump potentially set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And if that wasn’t enough, Trump’s everything envoy Steve Witkoff is headed to the Kremlin for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Whew. Strap in.

President Donald Trump backed down from the most extreme “Liberation Day” tariffs after bond traders revolted at the prospect of economic upheaval. Now, his push to coerce Denmark into ceding Greenland has threatened to trigger a similar market rout. Bond yields spiked and stocks sank on Tuesday as investors reckoned with how Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on Europe could hammer alliances that are critical to the global economy. That reignited fears that the “Sell America” trade that dominated market narratives last spring could reemerge, undercutting Wall Street’s hopes for U.S. assets in 2026. As global leaders and top financial CEOs gathered in Davos for the World Economic Forum, where Trump is scheduled to speak on Wednesday, the blowback from bond traders threatened to undermine the president’s bullish case for both the U.S. economy and its market outlook. “The narrative just won’t go away,” said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Foreign investors flooded back into U.S. assets as tensions eased during the latter half of 2025, but now “they’re hedging because they’re not sure what Trump is going to do with tariffs next.” Trump has historically been highly sensitive to how the bond market responds to his policies, and he regularly cites the stock market’s surge as evidence of how his agenda is working. The latest turmoil has echoes of the volatility that hit global bond markets shortly after he announced eye-popping tariffs last April on dozens of trading partners at a White House press conference. The president later announced a temporary pause on the new import duties after the bond market started “getting a little bit yippy,” in his words. His threat on Saturday to impose more tariffs on Europe sparked a similar response. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by more than 870 points on Tuesday. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closed down by more than 2 percent — erasing the gains notched through the first three weeks of the year. Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities — which are benchmark rates for consumer and corporate lending products — jumped to their highest levels since last September, and the dollar sank. The president warned that he would impose additional 10 percent tariffs on eight European countries that have sought to block his ambitions to acquire Greenland, the sparsely populated Danish territory that’s been a fixation of the president since his first term. French President Emmanuel Macron has said he’s planning to activate the EU’s so-called trade bazooka — the Anti-Coercion Instrument — to respond to Trump’s saber rattling. That would allow the EU to impose restrictions on investment and access to public procurement schemes, as well as limits on intellectual property protection. The White House pushed back on the notion that the markets were rejecting Trump’s policies. “The S&P 500 is up over 10 percent and 10-year Treasury bond yields are down nearly 30 basis points over the past year because the markets have confidence in the Trump administration’s pro-growth, pro-business policies,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said. “Accelerating GDP growth, cooled inflation, and over a dozen historic trade deals all prove that this Administration continues to deliver for American workers and companies.” Banking leaders — including Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, Citi’s Jane Fraser and State Street’s Ron O’Hanley — signaled optimism at the U.S.’s economic outlook in separate media appearances in Davos as they urged government leaders to find a resolution. “Let the people go to work,” Moynihan told CNBC. “They’re here in this beautiful place, and they’ve got a week to a few days to work on it. So, give them 48 hours and see if they can come up with solutions.” Throughout his first year back in the White House, Trump’s costly tariffs and insistence that Europe do more to finance its own defense have caused economic disruption and forced leaders across the continent to reckon with the possibility that the U.S. is no longer as strong a partner as it once was. And while markets have grown increasingly confident that the president’s frequent escalations result in policies that are far less severe than his initial threats, finding an off-ramp in the fight over Greenland’s future could prove challenging. “The market’s very complacent to the idea that this is just a negotiating tool,” said Brij Khurana, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management. “I’m more nervous about it because I don’t, I don’t see what the middle ground is here.” In an appearance on Fox Business from Davos on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it’s “very difficult to disaggregate” the market’s reaction to Trump’s Greenland push from a massive sell-off in Japanese bonds that was triggered by mounting concerns about the country’s fiscal trajectory. As European leaders consider taking steps to retaliate against Trump, Bessent urged caution. “Sit back, take a deep breath, do not retaliate,” he said. “The president will be here tomorrow, and he will get his message across.” Aiden Reiter contributed to this report.

President Donald Trump said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had an “amazing meeting” in South Korea in October. More than two months later, there’s still no formal agreement, however, leaving the commitments from both sides fuzzy and lowering expectations for a broader trade deal in 2026. Trump labeled his Oct. 30 meeting with Xi “a 12” out of 10, and the White House announced a series of measures the two sides agreed to in an effort to cool their trade war. That included, crucially, restarting Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and the elimination of Beijing’s restrictions on critical minerals exports. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to extend a pause on triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods. A Chinese Commerce Ministry statement, however, did not confirm those commitments, although it did acknowledge the U.S. tariff pause. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in late October told reporters that negotiators were “moving forward to the final details” of an agreement. Weeks later, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration hoped to finalize the rare earth provisions of the deal by Thanksgiving. That deadline passed without any public text or announcement. The lack of written terms, affirmed by both sides, has allowed both the Trump administration and Chinese government wiggle room in how they implement their trade truce, but critics say it also leaves the commitments open to competing interpretations — and, inevitably, more conflict down the line. The absence of a wider U.S.-China deal going forward will make the irritants that roiled trade ties in 2025 — tit-for-tat tariff hikes, export curbs on key items and targeted import shutdowns — potential tripwires for fresh economic chaos in the coming year. “This is not complicated,” said Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions. “The Chinese may or may not be slow rolling this but this is Diplomacy 101 — what have you agreed to and what’s the time frame?” They also say it bodes poorly for the type of sweeping trade realignment between the world’s two largest economies that Trump promised at the start of his term. The president has touted an upcoming visit to Beijing in April as the next step in the talks. “If they can’t even agree to something along the lines of what the U.S. fact sheet was and what the broad outlines of the commitments are, it raises concern about how much of a joint understanding there is about the follow through,” said Greta Peisch, a partner at Wiley Rein law firm in D.C. and former general counsel of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative under President Joe Biden. The White House, nonetheless, remains upbeat about the prospects for U.S.-China trade ties. “President Trump’s close relationship with President Xi is helping ensure that both countries are able to continue building on progress and continue resolving outstanding issues,” the White House said in a statement, adding that the administration “continues to monitor China’s compliance with our trade agreement.” A USTR official pointed to previously released statements outlining the administration’s expectations from China. The Treasury Department did not respond to a request for comment. Allies of the president argue that leaving the October understanding unwritten is not a failure but a feature of Trump’s strategy, giving both sides flexibility to manage tensions without triggering disputes over minor compliance disagreements. “The Chinese don’t want a real, definitive agreement, and on Trump’s side, in some ways, he’s better off as well, assuming that they live up to their spoken commitments,” said Wilbur Ross, who served as Commerce secretary in Trump’s first term. But there are already signs of confusion. The White House fact sheet released Nov. 1 said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025. The Chinese Commerce Ministry statement referred only to “expanding agricultural trade,” rather than a specific soybean target. Beijing has begun buying U.S. soybeans again, totaling at least 4 million metric tons since late October, well off pace to meet the 12 million mark in 2025. Greer told senators last month that the White House fact sheet reflected a “discrepancy” in timing, saying the initial purchases were intended to occur over the current crop year — generally understood to run into mid- to late 2026 — rather than within a single calendar year. The spokesperson for the Chinese embassy, Liu Pengyu, declined to comment on whether China would meet its soybean purchase commitment. U.S. soybean farmers worry, meanwhile, that China’s purchase commitments are vulnerable if there’s a fresh rupture in trade ties. The deal’s lack of transparency is also hitting industries that rely on China’s rare earth magnet supplies. Rare earths are essential for producing everything from washing machines and iPhones to medical equipment. When China announced sweeping new export restrictions in October, it set off alarms across global manufacturing supply chains. The White House says China agreed to keep rare earths and magnets flowing, but companies say shipments are still gated by licensing and remain unpredictable. “Supply chains are slowing down and certain investments that potentially could be made aren’t being made because business doesn’t have certainty of what the [rare earths] road map looks like,” Johnson said. Meanwhile U.S. trade sweeteners for Beijing just keep coming. Trump on Dec. 8 announced that Nvidia would be allowed to sell its powerful H200 artificial intelligence chip in China — despite concerns the move could give Beijing a technological edge at U.S. expense. There has been no sign of reciprocal moves by Beijing. It’s prompted warnings from national security hawks that Beijing will feel emboldened to demand the U.S. lift similar restrictions on cutting-edge tech in future trade talks. “President Trump has taken more direct control of China policy in a way that he hadn’t in his first term, so we’re seeing his own personal inclination manifesting more clearly than before,” said Christopher Adams, former senior coordinator for China affairs at the Treasury Department and now senior adviser at Covington and Burling. “And he prioritizes transactional dealmaking over pushing national security concerns.” It also could disincentivize Beijing from pursuing more ambitious trade goals with the U.S. over the coming year and from putting things on paper going forward, said Peter Harrell, former senior director for international economics on Biden’s national security council. “The Chinese understand that as long as they meet some minimal expectations on soybeans and rare earth exports, they’re not going to face a ton of immediate pressure to be nailed down on final texts,” he said. That falls short of what the administration pitched when it launched its “Liberation Day” tariff campaign in April, with Bessent predicting the pressure of Trump’s steep “reciprocal” tariffs would force China to shift away from its export-driven economic model. That same month Trump predicted Beijing would rush to negotiate trade terms to avoid being locked out of the U.S. market. What ensued was a cycle of escalating tariffs that briefly hit triple digits and a weaponization of export curbs targeted at each other’s key economic vulnerabilities until Trump and Xi ceased hostilities in October. “We settled for a pretty limited bilateral deal without any kind of broad market access or structural reforms aimed at addressing unfair competition or Chinese [industrial] overcapacity,” said Barbara Weisel, a former U.S. trade negotiator from 1994 to 2017 now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The affordability crisis that upended global politics last year continues to ripple across some of the world’s biggest democracies — punishing incumbents and undermining longstanding political alliances. New international POLITICO polling shows the voter frustration with persistent financial strain remains a deeply potent force today. In five major economies, The POLITICO Poll found ongoing cost-of-living pressures continue to reverberate through politics: * In the United States, where Donald Trump returned to power on a campaign of economic populism, nearly two-thirds of voters — 65 percent — say the cost of living in the country has gotten worse over the last year. * In the United Kingdom, where voters ousted the Conservative Party in 2024 after 14 years of rule, 77 percent say the cost of living has worsened. * In France, where President Emmanuel Macron is grappling with historically low favorability ratings, almost half of all adults — 45 percent — say their country is falling behind comparable economies. * In Germany, after prolonged infighting over the economy, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition collapsed last year. There, 78 percent of respondents say the cost of living has gotten worse over the last year. * And in Canada, a post-pandemic affordability crisis helped fuel a public backlash against then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government ahead of his resignation earlier this year. The POLITICO Poll found that 60 percent of adults in the country say the cost of living is the worst they can remember it being. The results, from POLITICO and Public First’s first-ever joint international poll, illustrate the uphill battle many leaders face in trying to contain the intertwined economic and political unrest. Five years after the coronavirus pandemic upended the global economy — and as the world contends with competing conflicts and AI rapidly becoming a defining force — meaningful shares of respondents across the U.S., Canada, and Europe’s biggest economies of Germany, the United Kingdom and France view the cost of living as among the biggest issues facing the world right now. But as leaders seek to address the affordability concerns, many say that their leaders could be doing a lot more to help on the cost of living, but are choosing not to. That has left incumbent governments grappling with how to manage the rising economic dread — and control the resulting political backlash. It has also created an opportunity for opposition parties on economic messaging. “For incumbents it’s very difficult to run on these platforms,” said Javier Carbonell, a policy analyst at the European Policy Centre. “Today, center-left and center-right parties are seen as incumbents, and as the ones who are to put the blame.” VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE COST OF LIVING There is a pervasive sense in the five countries that their economies are deteriorating. In France, 82 percent of adults say the cost of living in the country has worsened over the last year, as do 78 percent of respondents in Germany; 77 percent of adults in the United Kingdom and 79 percent in Canada say the same. A majority of people in all five countries go even further, saying the cost of living crisis has never been worse. In a further sign of the trouble facing leaders, the poll results suggest many view affordability as a systemic problem more than a personal one. Majorities across the countries, for example, say the issue of affordability is the high cost of goods, not that they are not paid too little. In the U.K., roughly two-thirds of adults say the country’s economy has deteriorated — greater than the 46 percent who say their own financial situation has worsened over the last year. That same pattern holds for France, Canada and Germany, suggesting the public holds broad concerns about the economy and affordability that go beyond their individual lives. While the European Union’s economy is set to grow by 1.4 percent in 2025, the economy in Germany has weakened over the past two years, and is expected to stagnate this year. In France, a series of government policies aimed at addressing cost-of-living concerns have contributed to an exploding national debt, which currently stands at nearly $4 trillion USD. In the United Kingdom, the results come against a backdrop of sluggish economic growth, with incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer struggling to convince voters that his center-left Labour Party can drive down the cost of living. And in Canada, the country’s deep-seated anxiety is born out by federal inflation data. Statistics Canada reported this week that the consumer price index ticked up 2.2 percent in November compared to the same month in 2024 — nearly a bullseye on the central bank’s 2 percent target. NEGATIVE ECONOMIC VIEWS ARE SHAPING POLITICS Voters’ economic concerns are roiling politics. In 2024, Trump ran a campaign on economic concerns without having to oversee the economy himself. That dynamic has shifted in recent months, with voters beginning to sour on his handling of the economy, underscoring the difficulty of convincing voters of economic progress amid stubborn cost-of-living concerns. That feeling of falling behind was particularly acute among European respondents in the POLITICO Poll, with nearly half of adults in Germany, France and the United Kingdom saying that their country is “generally falling behind other comparable economies.” That pessimism has pushed many people out of the political process, Carbonell said, “because there’s no expectation that things are going to change.” For others, it’s fueling a search for political alternatives. “There is this increasing demand for a very anti-system politics,” he said. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz made revamping the economy a central campaign promise. But since taking office, he has been preoccupied with geopolitical issues, including the ongoing trade war and the Russia-Ukraine war. That has become a successful line of attack for Merz’s critics — among them the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, now polling in first place. The party has accused Merz — whose approval ratings are at an all-time low — of not paying enough attention to the needs of the people in his own country, nicknaming him the “foreign policy chancellor.” In France, the government is looking to roll back some of the policies it rolled out in response to cost-of-living concerns, but doing so could prove particularly unpopular with a population laser-focused on high costs. It could also fuel anti-establishment parties on the right and left, which have made the issue a central weapon against France’s crumbling political center. David Coletto, a longtime pollster in Canada and CEO of the firm Abacus Data, has for years tracked affordability concerns — and found widespread concern among most survey respondents. “This is not a marginal concern or a background anxiety,” he wrote of results from POLITICO’s November poll. “It is a dominant lived experience that continues to shape how Canadians interpret government performance, leadership, and competing policy priorities, alongside concern about Donald Trump, trade, and global instability.” AFFORDABILITY MESSAGING WILL BE A CENTRAL MESSAGE IN UPCOMING ELECTIONS Affordability will be a central feature of elections across the globe next year — with some of that messaging already underway. In the U.S., Democratic candidates from New York to Georgia focused much of their 2025 campaigns on lowering the costs of living, and both parties are planning to center the issue in the midterms. “For now, the cost of living remains a warning light rather than a red light for the Carney government,” Coletto wrote. “But the intensity of feeling, combined with seasonal pressures and fragile household finances, means the issue is unlikely to fade quietly into the background.” Starmer’s government — languishing in the polls and facing local elections in 2026 — has pivoted in recent weeks to a more explicit focus on affordability. The U.K. government has also floated freezing train fares, lowering energy bills, and boosting the minimum wage in an attempt to solve the affordability crisis, but a record-high level of taxation confirmed at a government-wide budget last month risks blunting its economic message. In Germany, the issue of affordability may gain new momentum when voters in five federal states head to the polls to elect new state parliaments next year. In Berlin, the far-left Left Party, for example, plans to take a playbook from the affordability-centered campaign of New York’s Zohran Mamdani as a model for the state elections in September. With local elections also taking place across France next year, and a presidential election in 2027, these issues are likely to continue to take center stage, especially in the larger cities where pricing pressures have been particularly acute. In Paris, the outgoing center-left administration has been praised for making the city greener and more pedestrian-friendly, but far more needs to be done on affordability, said David Belliard, a member of the outgoing administration and the Green Party’s candidate for mayor. “We’ve spent a lot of time fighting against the end of the world,” Belliard said, “but maybe not enough helping people make it to the end of the month.” POLITICO’s Matt Honeycombe-Foster contributed to this report from the United Kingdom, Victor Goury-Laffont contributed to this report from France, Nette Nöstlinger contributed to this report from Germany and Nick Taylor-Vaisey contributed to this report from Canada.

BRUSSELS — Thursday’s European Council is the bloc’s last chance to show it can be more than a talking shop. Facing a growing rift with the U.S., and a Ukraine that is set to run out of cash in the first half of next year, the summit will show whether the EU’s leaders can actually deliver — or if their national differences are too big to overcome. The burning question is whether the EU can convince Belgium to get on board with its plan to syphon billions in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to keep it solvent. If the EU fails it will be “severely damaged” for years to come, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned. POLITICO’s liveblog is in full flight with all the details — but here’s your cheat sheet on what to watch for. THE €210 BILLION QUESTION  After failing to reach a deal at the last European Council in October — or in the several rounds of urgent talks and behind-the-scenes wrangling that have taken place since — Thursday is the last chance for EU leaders to green-light a proposal to leverage €210 billion in Russian assets across the bloc to fund a loan to Ukraine.  Belgium’s support is crucial, as the bulk of the frozen assets lie in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, and its government fears being on the hook for substantial damages or retaliation from Moscow. Despite weeks of persuasion, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever — a Flemish right-winger with a reputation for intransigence — hasn’t budged and continues to enjoy strong domestic support. Less than 24 hours before crunch time the Belgian ambassador told peers during closed-door talks that “we’re going backward.” Italy, Bulgaria and Malta have also signaled their opposition.   This is all bad news for Ukraine, which faces a €71.7 billion budget shortfall next year and will have to start cutting public spending as of April.  COULD BELGIUM BE SIDELINED?  Some member countries, such as Germany and Latvia, have suggested making the decision to seize the assets by qualified majority voting, rather than by unanimity, effectively sidelining Belgium.   In that case, 15 out of 27 member states would need to vote in favor. But Belgian officials told POLITICO there’s no point in trying to overrule their concerns as the funds in the Euroclear depository would simply not be released.  A senior EU official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told POLITICO the whole point of Thursday’s summit is to convince Belgium to drop its opposition, even if it means meeting late into the night.  IF NOT ASSETS, THEN WHAT?   If there’s no deal on the assets then the EU will have to find another way to prop up Ukraine, which it committed to doing one way or another at the last summit in October.  On Wednesday evening Europe’s leaders were split into irreconcilable camps, at least publicly, and seemed unlikely to agree on how to fund Kyiv. But the first contours of a potential route out of the impasse — one that would have to be hashed out during hours of negotiations — are beginning to take shape, with diplomats working on a long-shot 11th-hour compromise to salvage a deal. If the EU fails it will be “severely damaged” for years to come, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned. | Nadja Wohlleben/Getty Images European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has cautiously opened the door to joint debt, backed by the EU’s next seven-year budget, as a back-up plan. “I proposed two different options for this upcoming European Council, one based on assets and one based on EU borrowing. And we will have to decide which way we want to take,” she said during a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning. The key to such a plan would be carving Hungary and Slovakia — which both oppose giving further aid to Ukraine — out of the joint debt scheme, four EU diplomats told POLITICO. A deal could still be agreed at the Council among the 27 EU countries, but the ultimate arrangement would stipulate that only 25 would be involved in the funding.  ABOUT THAT PEACE DEAL   Washington shocked Ukraine and its European allies when it produced a plan to end the war that was replete with major concessions to Russia, including handing over large swathes of Ukrainian territory and capping the size of Kyiv’s military. After frenzied talks from Geneva to Berlin, Kyiv and its allies successfully lobbied for an alternative plan, which includes an offer by American officials to provide a NATO-style security assurance to protect Ukraine.  “For the first time since 2022, a ceasefire is conceivable,” Merz said at a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday. Zelenskyy is expected to attend the summit and to update leaders on the progress of the negotiations. U.S. and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend to continue talks. According to draft conclusions obtained by POLITICO, the EU will commit to providing “robust and credible security guarantees for Ukraine” — and, in a thinly veiled rebuke to Washington calling the shots, the bloc is set to declare that it “will decide on matters of its competence or affecting its security.”  MAKING THE EU COMPETITIVE  As the EU launches various measures to revitalize its sputtering economy, the focus of talks will be how external pressures (read: the U.S. and China) are impacting the bloc’s drive to become competitive. The draft conclusions are light on details or deliverables, saying simply that the EU’s leaders “held a strategic discussion about the geoeconomic situation and its implications for the EU’s competitiveness.”  A senior EU official clarified to POLITICO that the leaders are set to discuss how to handle the U.S. and Chinese postures in the global economy. Washington has shaken up the global trade order with its punishing tariffs while Beijing has alarmed Brussels by ramping up its rare earth export controls. AND … MERCOSUR? One thing that is not officially on the agenda is the Mercosur trade deal, which would create an enormous free trade zone with the South American bloc of countries and is finally on the cusp of being agreed after 25 years of talks.   France, and now Italy, want to delay a crucial vote on the deal over concerns about safeguards for the agricultural sector. But Denmark, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, has vowed to hold the vote in time for von der Leyen to fly to Brazil on Dec. 20 to sign the deal.   While the vote isn’t set to be discussed on Thursday, that doesn’t mean it won’t come up when the leaders gather. ENLARGEMENT IS BACK ON THE AGENDA  On Wednesday, leaders from the Western Balkans countries convened in Brussels to discuss taking forward their countries’ bids to join the bloc. Montenegro, the most advanced candidate, closed five accession chapters this week and is vying to join the bloc by 2028. With enlargement finally a real possibility in the not-too-distant future, the topic — which was not on the agenda at the summit in October — has returned to the fore. Leaders are set to endorse growing the bloc and to discuss “internal reforms,” according to draft conclusions. That’s shorthand for overhauling how the EU makes decisions so that a bloc with 30-plus members isn’t paralyzed.   Gabriel Gavin, Gregorio Sorgi and Camille Gijs contributed to this report. 

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Vor genau einem Jahr verlor Olaf Scholz die Vertrauensfrage und Friedrich Merz wurde später Kanzler. Gordon Repinski zieht eine politische Bilanz. Was hat Merz aus der Opposition heraus damals am 16. Dezember 2024 angekündigt, was hat er als Regierungschef eingelöst und wo ist er hinter den eigenen Ansprüchen zurückgeblieben. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Außenpolitik, Wirtschaft und der Stil der schwarz-roten Koalition. Parallel richtet sich der Blick dorthin in Berlin, wo sich Bewegung in den Gesprächen über ein Ende des Krieges in der Ukraine zeigt. Erstmals seit 2022 erscheint ein Waffenstillstand zumindest vorstellbar. Hans von der Burchard berichtet von den Gesprächen im Kanzleramt und erklärt, welche Rolle Sicherheitsgarantien, territoriale Fragen und der Druck aus Washington spielen. Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht Marie Agnes Strack Zimmermann, FDP Verteidigungspolitikerin im Europäischen Parlament, über die Grenzen des aktuellen Prozesses. Sie warnt vor falschem Optimismus, kritisiert die amerikanische Verhandlungsführung und fordert klare Entscheidungen Europas, etwa beim Umgang mit eingefrorenen russischen Vermögen. Und: Bundestagspräsidentin Julia Klöckner feiert Geburtstag, den Spaziergang aus dem Sommer mit ihr gib es hier. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d’entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu

LONDON — The British government is working to give its trade chief new powers to move faster in imposing higher tariffs on imports, as it faces pressure from Brussels and Washington to combat Chinese industrial overcapacity. Under new rules drawn up by British officials, Trade Secretary Peter Kyle will have the power to direct the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) to launch investigations and give ministers options to set higher duty levels to protect domestic businesses. The trade watchdog will be required to set out the results of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations within a year, better monitor trade distortions and streamline processes for businesses to prompt trade probes. The U.K. is in negotiations with the U.S. and the EU to forge a steel alliance to counter Chinese overcapacity as the bloc works to introduce its own updated safeguards regime. The EU is the U.K.’s largest market and Brussels is creating a new steel protection regime that is set to slash Britain’s tariff-free export quotas and place 50 percent duties on any in excess. The government said its directive to the TRA will align the U.K. with similar powers in the EU and Australia, and follow World Trade Organization rules. It is set out in a Strategic Steer to the watchdog and will be introduced as part of the finance bill due to be wrapped up in the spring. “We are strengthening the U.K.’s system for tackling unfair trade to give our producers and manufacturers — especially SMEs who have less capacity and capability — the backing they need to grow and compete,” Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle said in a statement. “By streamlining processes and aligning our framework with international peers, we are ensuring U.K. industry has the tools to protect jobs, attract investment and thrive in a changing global economy,” Kyle added. These moves come after the government said on Wednesday that its Steel Strategy, which plots the future of the industry in Britain and new trade protections for the sector, will be delayed until next year. The Trump administration has been concerned about the U.K.’s steps to counter China’s steel overcapacity and refused to lower further a 25 percent tariff carve-out for Britain’s steel and aluminum exports from the White House’s 50 percent global duties on the metals. Trade Secretary Kyle discussed lowering the Trump administration’s tariffs on U.K. steel with senior U.S. Cabinet members in Washington on Wednesday.  “We are very much on the case of trying to sort out precisely where we land with the EU safeguard,” Trade Minister Chris Bryant told parliament Thursday, after meeting with EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič on Wednesday for negotiations. “We will do everything we can to make sure that we have a strong and prosperous steel sector across the whole of the U.K.,” Bryant said. The TRA has also launched a new public-facing Import Trends Monitor tool to help firms detect surges in imports that could harm their business and provide evidence that could prompt an investigation by the watchdog. “We welcome the government’s strategic steer, which marks a significant milestone in our shared goal to make the U.K.’s trade remedies regime more agile, accessible and assertive, as well as providing greater accountability,” said the TRA’s Co-Chief Executives Jessica Blakely and Carmen Suarez. Sophie Inge and Jon Stone contributed reporting.

Donald Trump’s drive to secure peace in Ukraine must not let Vladimir Putin off the hook for war crimes committed by Russian forces, a top EU official has warned, effectively setting a new red line for a deal.  In an interview with POLITICO, Michael McGrath, the European commissioner for justice and democracy, said negotiators must ensure the push for a ceasefire does not result in Russia escaping prosecution.  His comments reflect concerns widely held in European capitals that the original American blueprint for a deal included the promise of a “full amnesty for actions committed during the war,” alongside plans to reintegrate Russia into the world economy. The Trump team’s push to rehabilitate the Kremlin chief comes despite international condemnation of Russia for alleged crimes including the abduction of 20,000 Ukrainian children and attacks targeting civilians in Bucha, Mariupol and elsewhere.  “I don’t think history will judge kindly any effort to wipe the slate clean for Russian crimes in Ukraine,” McGrath said. “They must be held accountable for those crimes and that will be the approach of the European Union in all of these discussions. “Were we to do so, to allow for impunity for those crimes, we would be sowing the seeds of the next round of aggression and the next invasion,” he added. “And I believe that that would be a historic mistake of huge proportions.” Protesters in London, June 2025. There has been international condemnation of Russia for alleged crimes including the abduction of 20,000 Ukrainian children and attacks targeting civilians. | Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Ukrainian authorities say they have opened investigations into more than 178,000 alleged Russian crimes since the start of the war. Last month, a United Nations commission found Russian authorities had committed crimes against humanity in targeting Ukrainian residents through drone attacks, and the war crimes of forcible transfer and deportation of civilians.  “We cannot give up on the rights of the victims of Russian aggression and Russian crimes,” McGrath said. “Millions of lives have been taken or destroyed, and people forcibly removed, and we have ample evidence.”  The EU and others have worked to set up a new special tribunal for the crime of aggression with the aim of bringing Russian leaders to justice for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. In March 2023, judges at the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, naming him “allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population [children]” from Ukraine. But Trump and his team have so far shown little interest in prosecuting Putin. In fact, the U.S. president has consistently described his Russian counterpart in positive terms, often talking about how he is able to have a “good conversation” with Putin. Trump has expressed the hope of building new economic and energy partnerships with Russia, and the pair have even discussed organizing ice hockey matches in Russia and the U.S. once the war is over.   The draft 28-point peace plan that Trump’s team circulated last week continues in a similar vein.  It states that “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy” and invited to rejoin the G8 after being expelled in 2014 following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. “The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities,” the document said. The U.S. peace plan proposes to lift sanctions against Russia in stages, though European leaders have pushed back to emphasize that the removal of EU sanctions will be for them to decide. Not everyone in Europe wants to maintain the squeeze on Moscow, however. Hungary has repeatedly stalled new sanctions, especially on oil and gas, for which it relies on Russia. Senior politicians in Germany, too, have floated the idea of lifting sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia.