Tag - Economic sanctions

Kremlin: Ukraine peace talks ‘on hold’
Talks between Russia and Ukraine on ending their war have stalled, the Kremlin said, appearing to confirm Kyiv’s fears that the war in Iran could derail the peace process. “The three-way group is on hold,” Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, told the Izvestia newspaper Thursday, referring to U.S.-mediated negotiations between the two sides.  He added, however, that the economic cooperation talks happening in parallel between Moscow and Washington are still ongoing. The Kremlin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev has previously suggested the two sides were eyeing joint projects worth up to $14 trillion. Russia has also long been lobbying for the United States to lift economic sanctions. Negotiations on prisoner swaps would also continue, Peskov said.  He did not provide a reason for why the peace negotiations, which U.S. President Donald Trump launched soon after he entered the White House, have hit a roadblock.  The last time the three parties met was in February in Geneva. A new round of talks scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed indefinitely, days after the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran, which has spilled over into the wider region. In an interview with the BBC earlier this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had a “very bad feeling” about the effect of the events in Iran on the war in Ukraine.  Negotiations, he said, were “constantly being postponed. There is one reason: [the] war in Iran.”  The Ukrainian president was backed by  British Prime Minister Keir Starmer who, after hosting Zelenskyy in London earlier this week, cautioned that, as the conflict in Iran and the Middle East unfolds, “we can’t lose focus on what’s going on in Ukraine and the need for our support.” Russia, meanwhile, is already reaping some benefits from the Iran crisis, as higher oil prices are boosting its energy revenues while shifting international attention away from its onslaught against Ukraine.
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Russia’s central bank sues EU for freezing its assets indefinitely
The Bank of Russia is suing the European Union for keeping its state assets frozen “for an indefinite period” to serve as collateral against a €90 billion loan to Ukraine. The lawsuit will test rare emergency powers that the European Commission used last year to keep Russian state assets across the bloc, worth some €210 billion, on ice through a qualified majority. The legal loophole nullified vetoes that Kremlin-friendly countries in the EU, such as Hungary, would otherwise have had. EU leaders agreed in mid-December to raise common debt without Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. Ukraine will only have to pay back the loan once Moscow ends the conflict and pays war reparations. If the Kremlin refuses, EU leaders reserve the right to tap the cash value of the frozen assets to pay itself back. In a statement Tuesday, the Bank of Russia blasted the EU’s “unlawful actions against the Bank of Russia’s sovereign assets,” saying the regulation violates “the basic and inalienable rights to access justice” and the “principle of sovereign immunity of states and their central banks.” The central bank also argued the Council of the EU committed “serious violations” of its own procedures by adopting the measure by qualified majority rather than unanimity. The Commission plans to issue a statement in response to the lawsuit, which the central bank filed at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg. Russia’s central bank filed a separate lawsuit in Moscow last year against Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, where the bulk of its assets lie immobilized under EU sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
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IMF approves $8B loan to Ukraine despite EU clash with Hungary
BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s cash-strapped government received a small reprieve in the early hours of Friday after the International Monetary Fund approved a new $8.1 billion loan to the war-torn country. The IMF will disburse some $1.5 billion from the loan straight away, as Kyiv’s coffers are set to empty in April after years of fighting against Russian invading forces. “It is very important for us that in the fifth year of a full-scale war, against the backdrop of systemic attacks on the energy sector, Ukraine has guaranteed international financial support from partners and a resource for the stable operation of the state,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko posted on Facebook after the IMF’s announcement. The international lender had initially demanded more assurances over Kyiv’s financial stability before approving the loan — this came when a majority of EU countries agreed late last year to raise €90 billion in joint debt to shore up Ukraine against Russia. But the IMF’s cash cushion is tiny. Kyiv’s budget shortfall is set to widen beyond $50 billion this year, putting pressure on the EU to overcome a dispute with Hungary that’s blocking crucial financial support. The EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine would help plug the gap. But Hungary is blocking the financing package amid accusations that Ukraine is deliberately slow-walking repairs to the damaged 4,000-kilometer Druzhba pipeline, which carries vital supplies of Russian oil to Hungary, on political grounds. Ukraine has dismissed the accusations. The European Commission has also downplayed the risk of an immediate energy crunch in Hungary, which has 90 days’ worth of oil supplies it can use. In the meantime, Brussels’ top brass is trying to solve the dispute without playing into an anti-EU political campaign that Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is pursuing ahead of a national election in April. The Hungarian leader has also weaponized anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of the election, with his political party, Fidesz, trailing the opposition, Tisza, in the polls by a wide margin. A loss would see Orbán’s 16-year reign come to an end. GIVE AND TAKE Some diplomats in Brussels had feared Orbán’s veto could hold up the IMF loan. The world’s lender of last resort demanded greater assurances over Kyiv’s financial health before issuing a loan, after four years of war have more than doubled the country’s debt burden to 108.7 percent of economic output. That reassurance initially arrived in mid-December, when 24 EU leaders agreed to raise €90 billion in joint debt to help finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Kyiv will only have to repay the money once Moscow ends the war and pays war reparations — an unlikely scenario. If the Kremlin refuses, the EU could use the cash value of frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself back. None of that matters if Orbán refuses to withdraw his veto. Recent correspondence with European Council President António Costa, however, has suggested Orbán will drop his veto if the EU assesses the damage to the Druzhba pipeline. The Hungarian leader could also relent if Brussels approves Budapest’s application for a €16 billion defense loan, according to some diplomats. The Commission’s lawyers are studying the EU treaties to see whether a legal loophole could be used to nullify the Hungarian veto. That could take time — something Kyiv doesn’t have. “Ukraine and its people have weathered a long and devastating war for over four years with remarkable resilience,” the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in a statement. “Nevertheless, the war has taken a toll on economic and social conditions, with slowing growth and the outlook remaining subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.”
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Orbán doubles down on Ukraine loan veto over Druzhba pipeline crisis
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Monday blamed “an unprovoked act of hostility” from Ukraine to justify his decision to block the EU’s €90 billion loan to Kyiv, according to a letter he sent to European Council President António Costa. Orbán backed the loan in December on the basis that EU leaders exempted Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia from paying down the EU debt. That changed on Friday after Budapest and Bratislava accused Kyiv of slow walking repairs to the damaged 4,000-kilometer Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. “Hungary did not oppose the decision based on the understanding that the loan will not have an impact on the financial obligations” of Prague, Budapest and Bratislava, Orbán wrote in a short letter, dated Feb. 23 and seen by POLITICO. “Recent developments have forced me to reconsider my position.” Costa’s office was not immediately available for comment. Ukraine’s war chest will run out in April without fresh funds, putting Kyiv at a disadvantage against Russian forces and ongoing U.S.-led peace talks with the Kremlin. A Russian drone attack in late January damaged the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil that is vital to Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy needs. The European Commission last week said that both countries have 90 days’ worth of oil supplies to avoid an immediate energy crunch. Orbán said Kyiv has refused to restore crude oil supplies via the pipeline since mid-February on political grounds, an accusation Ukraine has dismissed. Hungary and Slovakia are exempt from EU sanctions on Russian product. Russian oil accounted for for 92 percent of Hungary’s energy imports last year, according to the Center for the Study of Democracy, a European policy institute. The Hungarian leader has weaponized anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of April’s national election, with his political party, Fidesz, trailing the opposition, Tisza, in the polls by a wide margin. He has also used the pipeline issue to justify blocking the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, which requires unanimous support to pass. Brussels had planned to unveil the package on the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which is on Tuesday. Hungary can block the €90 billion loan because one of the three bills underpinning the financial aid also requires EU unanimity to expand the cash buffer of the EU’s long-term budget to issue the loan. EU ambassadors will discuss the sanctions package on Monday during the Foreign Affairs Council. Both initiatives remain stuck until the Druzhba pipeline crisis is resolved. “As long as this remains the case, Hungary will not support the amendment of the [multiannual financial framework] regulation necessary for the use of the EU budget headroom for the loan facility,” Orbán wrote.
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Brussels Decoded
EU countries furious at Hungary over plan to block Russia sanctions and Ukraine loan
BRUSSELS — European foreign ministers took multiple swipes at Hungary on Monday over Budapest’s plan to block the EU’s latest round of sanctions against Russia. The bloc’s top diplomats gathered in Brussels to discuss approving the 20th package of sanctions against Moscow. The EU had hoped to get the package approved in time for Tuesday, the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will head to Kyiv to mark the occasion. But Budapest vowed in advance to block the measures unless Kyiv allows Russian oil deliveries to continue flowing to Hungary and neighboring Slovakia. Ukrainian authorities said the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil to the two Central European countries, was damaged by a Russian strike on Jan. 27. Hungary and Slovakia are claiming Kyiv is intentionally not restarting the pipeline. Hungary is also threatening to block the €90 billion loan agreed by EU leaders in December, which is key to Ukraine’s wartime survival.  That’s earned the ire of Ukraine’s allies in the EU. “I am astounded about the Hungarian position,” German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told reporters as he headed into the Foreign Affairs Council. “I don’t think it’s right if Hungary uses its own fight for freedom to betray European sovereignty.”  Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said he was “really upset and frustrated” with Hungary, adding that Budapest’s reasons “are not based in European needs, they are not based in European security interests.”  Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski castigated Hungary for forgetting what it’s like to resist a Russian invasion, apparently referring to Soviet troops marching on Budapest in 1956. “The thing that shocks me fundamentally is that while Ukraine is defending itself against the might of the Russian army, Hungarians used to understand what it’s like … I would’ve expected a much greater feeling of solidarity from Hungary for Ukraine,” he said. Instead, he alleged Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has painted Kyiv as the enemy, and “now is trying to exploit that” narrative to win an April general election. Orbán, who has been in power for almost two decades, is trailing in the polls against an ascendant opposition.  While Wadephul said he would “urge [Hungary] to rethink their position” in today’s meeting, and Budrys called for an “open and honest discussion,” several foreign ministers expressed skepticism that they would be able to sway Budapest anytime soon. The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, warned: “I think there is not going to be progress regarding this today, but we will definitely make this push.” Romania Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Țoiu concurred. “I’m not sure if it’s gonna be tomorrow or this week,” she said, referring to approving the sanctions. But she added more optimistically: “We have seen similar situations in the past and we have overcome them. That is why it’s called the 20th package of sanctions.” Hungary has blocked previous packages of sanctions against Russia and tranches of aid for Ukraine, but has ultimately begrudgingly backed off in exchange for concessions. “I hope that Europe can deliver, that tomorrow it won’t be the situation when we will be saying, ‘We are sorry, 20th package is not there,’” Budrys said.  Milena Wälde contributed to this report.
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Kyiv condemns ‘blackmail’ by Hungary, Slovakia as energy standoff escalates
Ukraine condemned “ultimatums ⁠and blackmail” by the governments of Hungary and Slovakia on Saturday, after Budapest and Bratislava threatened to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine unless ⁠Kyiv restarts flows of Russian oil. Shipments of Russian oil to Hungary and ⁠Slovakia have been cut off since Jan. 27, when Kyiv says a Russian drone strike hit pipeline equipment in western Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary accuse Ukraine of slow-walking the repairs for political purposes. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Saturday that he would cut off emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv resumes Russian oil transit to Slovakia ⁠over Ukrainian territory. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán made a similar threat days earlier. In a statement posted on X late Saturday, Ukraine’s foreign ministry blasted the actions as “irresponsible,” saying they risked exacerbating the growing energy crisis that has followed months of Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian grids and power stations, leaving thousands of Ukrainians without heat and electricity in the depths of winter. “Such actions, in the context of massive and targeted Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and Moscow’s attempts to deprive Ukrainians of electricity, heating, and gas during extreme cold weather, are provocative, irresponsible, and threaten the energy security of the entire region,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. “In doing so, the governments of Hungary and Slovakia are not only playing into the hands of the aggressor, but also harming their own energy companies that supply energy on a commercial basis.” Kyiv said it is also considering activating emergency energy supply measures under Ukraine’s association agreement with the EU. The 4,000-kilometer Druzhba pipeline — which runs from eastern Russia into Central Europe — is a key source of oil for both Slovakia and Hungary, both of which are exempt from EU sanctions on imports of Russian refined oil. It has become a major flashpoint over the past week as Budapest and Bratislava accuse Kyiv of deliberately delaying the repair of the pipeline to exert political pressure. It’s a politically sensitive moment for Orbán in particular, who is trailing in the polls behind the opposition Tisza party ahead of national elections in April that threaten to spell the end of his 16-year rule. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó ramped up the pressure further on Sunday, vowing to block the EU’s latest raft of sanctions against Russia, which member countries are hoping to adopt on Monday. Budapest has separately threatened to block a €90 billion loan to Ukraine that the country needs to keep fighting before its war chest runs dry in April. Kyiv said over the weekend it was working round the clock to repair the damaged pipeline and that it had already offered to help restore flows to Slovakia and Hungary via alternative routes. It separately suggested to the European Commission that it supply the countries through its own transportation system or via Black Sea ports, according to a letter seen by POLITICO. It emphasized its “continuous readiness” to supply oil to the countries within legal bounds, calling on the Commission to help with logistics. Ukrainian specialists are “assessing the technical feasibility and conditions for the prompt restoration of oil transportation via the said pipeline,” it added.
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Top NATO allies believe cyberattacks on hospitals are an act of war. They’re still struggling to fight back.
NATO countries’ restrained response to hybrid attacks is at odds with public opinion, new polling shows: Broad swaths of the public in key allied countries say actions such as cyberattacks on hospitals should be considered acts of war. The POLITICO Poll, conducted in the United States, Canada, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, showed a majority of people agreed that a cyberattack that shuts down hospitals or power grids constitutes an act of war. Canadians felt the strongest about the issue, with 73 percent agreeing. Respondents from all five countries also rallied behind the idea that sabotaging undersea cables or energy pipelines — which has occurred more frequently in recent years — should be considered be an act of war. The online survey was conducted from Feb. 6 to 9 by the independent London-based polling company Public First. State-backed hackers — often linked to Russia — have increasingly targeted critical sectors in recent years. But NATO allies are struggling to respond effectively. In 2024, a Russia-based ransomware gang conducted a massive cyberattack on U.S.-based medical bill clearinghouse, Change Healthcare, which exposed sensitive data on more than 190 million people. The U.K.’s National Health Service confirmed last year that a cyberattack on its systems, also committed by a Russian hacking group, contributed to a patient’s death. And in 2022, the Federal Bureau of Investigation accused Iranian government-backed hackers of attempting to infiltrate the Boston Children’s Hospital computer network. While these actions have not been officially labeled as acts of war, global governments are taking attacks on critical systems more seriously. NATO in 2014 said that a foreign cyberattack could trigger the alliance’s mutual defense clause, Article 5, effectively calling for multilateral action in response to hacks. But a NATO official said in 2022 that it’s unclear how severe a cyberattack would have to be to trigger a response, which could include “diplomatic and economic sanctions, cyber measures or even conventional forces, depending on the nature of the attack.” Security services in Europe have also more firmly called out the Kremlin for orchestrating digital attacks in the West, most recently targeting Poland’s energy infrastructure. But views on Russia as a global threat vary greatly between Europe and North America. A majority of respondents in Germany, France and the U.K. said Russia represents the biggest threat to peace, while fewer in the U.S. (39 percent) and Canada (29 percent) agreed. While the people surveyed in these five countries overwhelmingly considered major cyberattacks by adversaries against public infrastructure as acts of war, they felt less strongly about smaller-scale acts of digital sabotage. Less than half of the respondents across all five countries said that hacking and leaking the private conversations of political leaders should be considered an act of war. Even fewer considered spreading misinformation to influence an election to be an act of war. Still, there is a clear understanding that governments need to incorporate cyber capabilities and AI into their defense strategies. A plurality of respondents from all countries said that cyber, AI and traditional military power all matter equally. At least a third of respondents in each country agreed that cybersecurity and defense against cyber attacks should be among their countries’ highest priorities for defense spending. “Just being resilient alone, you can’t absorb all threats,” Dag Baehr, Vice President of Germany’s federal intelligence service (BND), said at the Munich Cyber Security Conference last week. “You need to be active in defending.” U.S. officials are pushing for more offensive military responses to cyberattacks, particularly following the massive 2024 hack of global telecommunications networks by the China-linked hacking group Salt Typhoon. The White House is due to release a new national cyber strategy in the coming weeks that would encourage the U.S. to be less “reactive” in cyberspace. National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross told an audience at the Munich Security Conference last week that a “mindset change” was needed to make it harder for attackers to succeed. In recent months, the Trump administration has become more vocal about using its cyber strength to attack, revealing that U.S. cyber forces helped turn off the lights in Caracas during the January strikes that resulted in the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency were also involved in last year’s U.S. missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, and reportedly helped to disable Iranian air defense systems. In Germany, the government is preparing an overhaul of its intelligence and cybersecurity powers to strike back against foreign hackers and spies.
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EU’s €90B plan to fund Ukraine in jeopardy as Hungary blocks deal
BRUSSELS ― Hungary has thrown the EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine into crisis after threatening to block the deal until the flow of Russian gas resumes through the Druzhba pipeline. The Hungarian government issued the warning on Friday evening, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán tries to weaponize anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of a key election where he risks losing power after more than 15 years. “Ukraine is blackmailing Hungary by halting oil transit in coordination with Brussels and the Hungarian opposition to create supply disruptions in Hungary and push fuel prices higher before the elections,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó wrote on X. “We will not give in to this blackmail.” Hungary’s threat to veto the loan is a major setback for Ukraine, whose coffers will begin running low on cash from April. Kyiv will struggle to sustain its war effort without fresh funds, leaving it at a disadvantage in ongoing peace talks with Russia. The first signs of trouble began earlier in the day on Friday. Hungary’s ambassador to the EU demanded that its national assembly get the standard eight weeks to scrutinize EU legislation during a meeting of envoys in Brussels, three EU diplomats told POLITICO. EU ambassadors were set to give their final approval for the loan ahead of Tuesday, which marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a fresh confrontation with Kyiv, Orbán is accusing the war-torn country of halting Russian gas to Hungary for political reasons. Ukraine rejects these claims, arguing that Russian strikes have damaged the energy infrastructure. The European Commission convened an emergency meeting earlier this week to solve the dispute over the Druzhba pipeline after Hungary and Slovakia retaliated by halting diesel supplies to Ukraine. EU leaders, including Orbán, agreed to the €90 billion loan in December following months of fraught negotiations. In a major concession, the EU exempted Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia ― who oppose giving further aid to Kyiv ― from repaying the borrowing costs of the loan. Budapest on Friday refused to clear one bill that requires unanimity to expand the cash buffer, known as the headroom, of the EU’s long-term budget to issue the loan. EU ambassadors backed the other two bills underpinning the Ukraine loan that only needed a simple majority for approval. As Russia’s firmest ally in the EU, Orbán has frequently threatened to block the EU’s financial support to Ukraine. UPDATED: This story has been updated to reflect Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó’s comments online.
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EU targets Russian energy, banks, goods and services in latest sanctions package
BRUSSELS — The European Commission proposed its latest package of sanctions against Russia on Friday, in a package that broadens restrictions on Russian energy, banks, goods and services. “As important peace talks are underway in Abu Dhabi, we must be clear-eyed: Russia will only come to the table with genuine intent if it is pressured to do so. This is the only language Russia understands,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. The 20th package of Russia sanctions includes a full maritime services ban for Russian crude oil and targets 43 more vessels as part of the so-called shadow fleet. It adds bans on the provision of maintenance and other services for LNG tankers and icebreakers to further dent gas export projects — a move that would stop them from using European ports. It also introduces new import bans on metals, chemicals and critical minerals, as well as further export restrictions on items and technologies used for Russia’s battlefield effort, such as materials used to produce explosives. The package lists 20 more Russian regional banks as well as several banks in third countries that are perceived as facilitating trade in sanctioned goods. Von der Leyen said a drop of 24 percent in Russian oil and gas revenues last year, to the lowest since 2020, confirmed that sanctions were working. “We will continue to use them until Russia engages in serious negotiations with Ukraine for a just and lasting peace,” she asserted. EU countries would need to approve the package for the measures to take effect, with the goal getting a deal over the line in time for the four-year mark of Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine on Feb. 24. The proposal comes on the heels of a round of trilateral talks between Ukrainian, American and Russian negotiators this week in Abu Dhabi, where Ukraine and Russia agreed to swap 314 prisoners of war.
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EU agrees €90B lifeline for cash-strapped Ukraine
BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest stands to get a vital cash injection after EU envoys agreed on a €90 billion loan to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russia, the Cypriot Council presidency said on Wednesday. “The new financing will help ensure the country’s fierce resilience in the face of Russian aggression,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement. Without the loan Ukraine had risked running out of cash by April, which would have been catastrophic for its war effort and could have crippled its negotiating efforts during ongoing American-backed peace talks with Russia. EU lawmakers still have some hurdles to clear, such as agreeing on the conditions Ukraine must satisfy to get a payout, before Brussels can raise money on the global debt market to finance the loan — which is backed by the EU’s seven-year budget. A big point of dispute among EU countries was how Ukraine will be able to spend the money, and who will benefit. One-third of the money will go for normal budgetary needs and the rest for defense. France led efforts to get Ukraine to spend as much of that as possible with EU defense companies, mindful that the bloc’s taxpayers are footing the €3 billion annual bill to cover interest payments on the loan. However, Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian nations pushed to give Ukraine as much flexibility as possible. The draft deal, seen by POLITICO, will allow Ukraine to buy key weapons from third countries — including the U.S. and the U.K. — either when no equivalent product is available in the EU or when there is an urgent need, while also strengthening the oversight of EU states over such derogations. The list of weapons Kyiv will be able to buy outside the bloc includes air and missile defense systems, fighter aircraft ammunition and deep-strike capabilities. If the U.K. or other third countries like South Korea, which have signed security deals with the EU and have helped Ukraine, want to take part in procurement deals beyond that, they will have to contribute financially to help cover interest payments on the loan. The European Parliament must now examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text. | Philipp von Ditfurth/picture alliance via Getty Images The text also mentions that the contribution of non-EU countries — to be agreed in upcoming negotiations with the European Commission — should be proportional to how much their defense firms could gain from taking part in the scheme. Canada, which already has a deal to take part in the EU’s separate €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons scheme, will not have to pay extra to take part in the Ukraine program, but would have detail the products that could be procured by Kyiv. NEXT STEPS Now that ambassadors have reached a deal, the European Parliament must examine the changes the Council has made to the legal text before approving the measure. If all goes well, Kyiv will get €45 billion from the EU this year in tranches. The remaining cash will arrive in 2027. Ukraine will only repay the money if Moscow ends its full-scale invasion and pays war reparations. If Russia refuses, the EU will consider raiding the Kremlin’s frozen assets lying in financial institutions across the bloc. While the loan will keep Ukrainian forces in the fight, the amount won’t cover Kyiv’s total financing needs — even with another round of loans, worth $8 billion, expected from the International Monetary Fund. By the IMF’s own estimates, Kyiv will need at least €135 billion to sustain its military and budgetary needs this year and next. Meanwhile, U.S. and EU officials are working on a plan to rebuild Ukraine that aims to attract $800 billion in public and private funds over 10 years. For that to happen, the eastern front must first fall silent — a remote likelihood at this point. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv.
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