Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music After Hungary was accused of leaking sensitive EU discussions to the Kremlin, the spotlight is now shifting to Germany. Zoya Sheftalovich is joined by Ian Wishart to unpack mounting concerns in Brussels over the far-right AfD’s access to confidential EU documents — and whether Europe’s open systems are creating new vulnerabilities. The duo also discuss Denmark’s election, where Mette Frederiksen is fighting for another term in a tight race, and break down a razor-thin result in Slovenia — plus what Giorgia Meloni’s referendum defeat means for her authority at home. And finally — Europe’s quirkiest contest returns. The “Eurovision of trees” is about to crown its winner, and we want your pick. Which tree do you like the most? Which one gets your vote? Send us your choice on our WhatsApp: +32 491 05 06 29.

ROME — Italian right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s crushing defeat in Monday’s referendum on judicial reform has shattered her aura of political invincibility, and her opponents now reckon she can be toppled in a general election expected next year. The failed referendum is the the first major misstep of her premiership, and comes just as she seemed in complete control in Rome and Brussels, leading Italy’s most stable administration in years. Her loss is immediately energizing Italy’s fragmented opposition, making the country’s torpid politics suddenly look competitive again. Meloni’s bid to overhaul the judiciary — which she accused of being politicized and of left-wing bias — was roundly rejected, with 54 percent voting “no” to her reforms. An unexpectedly high turnout of 59 percent is also likely to alarm Meloni, underscoring how the vote snowballed into a broader vote of confidence in her and her government. She lost heavily in Italy’s three biggest cities: In the provinces of Rome, the “no” vote was 57 percent, Milan 54 percent and Naples 71 percent. In Naples, about 50 prosecutors and judges gathered to open champagne and sing Bella Ciao, the World War II anti-fascist partisan anthem. Activists, students and trade unionists spontaneously marched to Rome’s Piazza del Popolo chanting “resign, resign.”  In a video posted on social media, Meloni put a brave face on the result. “The Italians have decided and we will respect that decision,” she said. She admitted feeling some “bitterness for the lost opportunity … but we will go on as we always have with responsibility, determination and respect for Italy and its people.” In truth, however, the referendum will be widely viewed as a sign that she is politically vulnerable, after all. It knocks her off course just as she was setting her sights on major electoral reforms that would further cement her grip on power. One of her main goals has been to shift to a fixed-term prime ministership, which would be elected by direct suffrage rather than being hostage to rotating governments. Those ambitions look far more fragile now. The opposition groups that have struggled to dent Meloni’s dominance immediately scented blood. After months on the defensive, they pointed to Monday’s result as proof that the prime minister can be beaten and that a coordinated campaign can mobilize voters against her. Matteo Renzi, former prime minister and leader of the centrist Italia Viva party, predicted Meloni would now be a “lame duck,” telling reporters that “even her own followers will now start to doubt her.” When he lost a referendum in 2016 he resigned as prime minister. “Let’s see what Meloni will do after this clamorous defeat,” he said.  Elly Schlein, leader of the opposition Democratic Party, said: “We will beat [Meloni] in the next general election, I’m sure of that. I think that from today’s vote, from this extraordinary democratic participation, an unexpected participation in some ways, a clear political message is being sent to Meloni and this government, who must now listen to the country and its real priorities.”  Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, leader of the populist 5Star Movement heralded “a new spring and a new political season.” Angelo Bonelli , leader of the Greens and Left Alliance, told reporters the result was “an important signal for us because it shows that there is a majority in the country opposed to the government.” ‘PARALLEL MAFIA’ The referendum itself centered on changes to how judges and prosecutors are governed and disciplined, including separating their career paths and reshaping their oversight bodies. The government framed the reforms as a long-overdue opportunity to fix a system where politicized legal “factions” impede the government’s ability to implement core policies on issues such as migration and security. Justice Minister Carlo Nordio called prosecutors a “parallel mafia,” while his chief of staff compared parts of the judiciary to “an execution squad.”   A voter is given a ballot at a polling station in Rome, Italy, on March 22, 2026. | Riccardo De Luca/Anadolu via Getty Images Meloni’s opponents viewed the defeated reforms differently, casting them as an attempt to weaken a fiercely independent judiciary and concentrate power. That framing helped turn a technical vote into a broader political contest, one that opposition parties were able to rally around. It was a clash with a long and bitter political history. The Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) investigations of the 1990s, which wiped out an entire political class, left a legacy of mistrust between politicians and the judiciary. The right, in particular, accused judges of running a left-wing vendetta against them. Under Meloni’s rule that tension has repeatedly resurfaced, with her government clashing with courts, saying judges are thwarting initiatives to fight migration and criminality. Meloni herself stepped late into the campaign, after initially keeping some distance, betting that her personal involvement could shift the outcome. She called the referendum an “historic opportunity to change Italy.” In combative form this month, she had called on Italians not squander their opportunity to shake up the judges. If they let things continue as they are now, she warned: “We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk.” It was to no avail, and Meloni was hardly helped by the timing of the vote. Her ally U.S. President Donald Trump is highly unpopular in Italy and the war in Iran has triggered intense fears among Italians that they will have to pay more for power and fuel. The main upshot is that Italy’s political clock is ticking again. REGAINING THE INITIATIVE For Meloni, the temptation will be to regain the initiative quickly. That could even mean trying to press for early elections before economic pressures mount and key EU recovery funds wind down later this year. The logic of holding elections before economic conditions deteriorate further would be to prevent a slow bleeding away of support, said Roberto D’Alimonte, professor of political science at the Luiss University in Rome. But Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella has the ultimate say about when to dissolve parliament and parliamentarians, whose pensions depend on the legislature lasting until February, could help him prevent elections by forming alternative majorities. D’Alimonte said Meloni’s “standing is now damaged.” “There is no doubt she comes out of this much weaker. The defeat changes the perception of her. She has lost her clout with voters and to some extent in Europe. Until now she was a winner and now she has shown she can lose,” he added. She must now weigh whether to identify scapegoats who can take the fall — potentially Justice Minister Nordio, a technocrat with no political support base of his own.  Meloni is expected to move quickly to regain control of the agenda. She is due to travel to Algeria on Wednesday to advance energy cooperation, a trip that may also serve to pivot the political conversation back to economic and foreign policy aims. But the immediate impact of the vote is clear: A prime minister who entered the referendum from a position of strength but now faces a more uncertain political landscape, against an opposition newly convinced she can be beaten.

ROME — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is on course to narrowly lose a high-stakes referendum on justice reform Monday, according to a poll released as soon as voting ended at 3 p.m.   According to a survey by Swg carried on the La7 broadcaster, the margins were tight but 49-53 percent of the electorate was expected to vote against Meloni’s proposed reforms, while 47-51 percent were expected to vote in favor. A loss in the referendum would be likely to weaken her hand politically.

Voter turnout in Italy’s referendum on judicial reform reached nearly 15 percent by noon on Sunday, signaling a stronger-than-expected start to a vote seen as a key test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Recent polling indicated that higher turnout could improve the chances of the “Yes” camp backed by Meloni’s government, while lower participation would make a “No” victory more likely. Government data put participation at 14.92 percent at midday. The early figure marks a stronger start than in comparable recent referendums, with turnout at noon standing at just 12.24 percent in the 2020 vote on cutting the number of MPs and 10.1 percent in the 2006 constitutional referendum. Regional data shows northern and central regions leading participation, with Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Lombardy recording the highest turnout so far. Southern regions including Calabria, Basilicata and Sicily are trailing in turnout. At the heart of the vote is a deeply contested reform of the Italian judiciary. The most controversial element is a proposal to overhaul how members of the Superior Council of the Judiciary (CSM) — the body that governs judges’ careers — are selected. Instead of being elected, most members would be chosen by lottery under the proposal. Supporters of the reform argue the change would break the influence of internal factions within the judiciary and reduce politicization. Critics say it risks undermining merit and representation, potentially allowing underqualified and political candidates to oversee key decisions on appointments and discipline. Two further turnout updates are scheduled for 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Sunday, with final results expected after polls close on Monday at 3 p.m. The referendum does not require a minimum turnout, meaning the reform will be approved or rejected based solely on the majority of votes cast.

ROME — Giorgia Meloni is running Italy’s most stable government in years, but her political future now appears closely tied to a major referendum on Sunday and Monday. The plebiscite will address the bitter and complex question of judicial reform — something right-wingers such as Meloni have pursued for decades, accusing judges of political interference and left-wing bias. The changes sought by the referendum are highly technical, but the vote will be viewed as a wider test of confidence in the prime minister and her government. If Meloni wins, the victory will cement her power before a general election expected next year. But if she loses, the opposition will smell blood. Voters will be asked to support the reforms by voting “yes,” or reject them by crossing “no” on their ballots. Here’s everything you need to know about the referendum, and what happens next. THE LOGISTICS Booths will be open on Sunday from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. and on Monday from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m., while expats should have mailed their ballots by March 19. Exit polls will be published at 3 p.m. on Monday and official results will be confirmed later in the day. The constitutional referendum is binding No matter what the turnout WHAT POLLS SAY Italian law prevents the media from polling citizens within two weeks of the vote, but the latest numbers published March 7 identified a “growing trend” toward the “no” campaign. Still, the race looks finely balanced, with much depending on turnout. Turnout data — released throughout the day Sunday and at close of polls on Monday — could give an early indication of the results: A lower turnout is expected to favor the opposition, while higher figures should help Meloni. A man works next to a giant poster reading “Vote No to the law of the strongest”, ahead of the upcoming referendum on Justice reform, on March 20, 2026. | Stefano Rellandini / AFP via Getty Images The Iran war poses a risk to Meloni that may have ramped up since the last polls. Italian voters greatly dislike her ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, and are worried about rises in their already high energy bills thanks to the Middle East conflict. WHAT REFORMS ARE BEING PROPOSED? The government says it wants to break the judiciary into different career tracks to prevent groupthink and to stop cases being sewn up between judges and prosecutors from the same background. The reform suggests separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors — who currently share the same entrance exams and training programs — and adding a second prosecutors’ governing body to the existing one for personnel matters as well as a higher court in charge of discipline. Most members of the three courts will be selected by a lottery system rather than elected. HOW DID WE GET HERE? The Italian justice system has often been the center of political debates. Meloni’s government argues the reform is needed to fix an overly politicized and unaccountable judiciary, but the “no” campaign — led by the opposition — sees it as an authoritarian move to muzzle judges and reduce their independence.  In the 1990s, following the Mani Pulite (“Clean Hands”)corruption scandal that broke the Christian Democrats’ decades-long hold on power, politicians were discredited, while prosecutors were hailed as heroes and gained moral authority. This triggered lasting grievances on the right and a conviction that the judiciary has become a political force.  Things have not always been so binary. The idea of separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors was also previously supported by the left: Massimo D’Alema, who was secretary of the left-wing Partito Democratico di Sinistra and would soon become prime minister, proposed the reform as chair of a bipartisan parliamentary commission in 1997. But everything changed when Silvio Berlusconi came to power. The late prime minister took a more antagonistic stance toward the judiciary, alleging he was being prosecuted because of political interests. He nicknamed judges toghe rosse (“red robes”), accusing them of being Communist sympathizers and indulging a personal vendetta against him. He repeatedly attempted to rein in prosecutorial power, including curbing the use of wiretaps, instituting parliamentary immunity and shortening the statute of limitations.  In 2002 Berlusconi proposed a similar constitutional amendment to Meloni’s, but was forced to retreat after a fierce backlash. Since then most governments, like Mario Draghi’s in 2021, have focused on passing more targeted laws to improve efficiency. THE AYES HAVE IT: WHAT’S NEXT? If she wins, Meloni will take her victory lap, celebrating the reform and adding an arrow to her political quiver ahead of next year’s general election. She could attempt to ride the momentum and force an early vote before economic headwinds pick up, fueled by the energy crisis and the end of Italy’s EU-funded Covid recovery assistance. But she has said publicly that she wants to serve out her full term. THE NAYS HAVE IT: WHAT’S NEXT? Meloni has tried her best to avoid former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum mistake: making it personal. When Renzi lost the vote on his constitutional reform in 2016 he was forced to step down, after running a campaign that tied his name and fate to the outcome. The current Italian leader has insisted she won’t resign if her proposals fail.  But she won’t come out of it unscathed, either. Meloni has presented herself as a strong and stable leader, untouched by scandals and internal party squabbles, something unseen in Italy’s modern history. Losing the referendum would amount to the first real dent in her political armor and would hand a significant win to the opposition, putting her on a bumpy track before next year’s general election.

When Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni attended her first European leaders’ summit in Brussels in December 2022, few would have expected her to become one of the most effective politicians sitting around the table four years later.   In fact, few would have expected that she’d still be there at all, as Italian leaders are famously short-lived. Remarkably, her right-wing Brothers of Italy party looks as rock solid in polls as it did four years ago, and she now has her eye on the record longest term for an Italian premier — a feat she is due to accomplish in September. A loss in what is set to be a nail-biting referendum on the bitter and complex issue of judicial reform on March 22 and 23 would be her first major set back — and would puncture the air of political invincibility that she exudes not only in Rome but also in Brussels. Meloni has thrived on the European stage, and has become adept at using the EU machinery to her advantage. Only in recent months, she has made decisive interventions on the EU’s biggest dossiers, such as Russian assets, the Mercosur trade deal and carbon markets, leveraging Italy’s heavyweight status to win concessions in areas like farm subsidies. Profiting from France’s weakness, Meloni is also establishing a strong partnership with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — a double act between the EU’s No. 1 and No. 3 economies — to mold the bloc’s policies to favor manufacturing and free trade. CRASHING DOWN TO EARTH For a few more days, at least, Meloni looks like a uniquely stable and influential Italian leader. Nicola Procaccini, a Brothers of Italy MEP very close to Meloni and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, called the government’s longevity a “real novelty” in the European political landscape. “Until recently, Italy couldn’t insert itself into the dynamics of those that shape the European Union — essentially the Franco-German axis — because it lacked governments capable of lasting even a year,” said the MEP. “Giorgia Meloni is not just a leader who endures; she is a leader who shapes decisions and influences the direction to be taken.” But critics of the prime minister said a failure in the referendum would mark a critical turning point. Her rivals would finally detect a chink in her armor and move to attack her record, particularly on economic weaknesses at home. The unexpected, new message to other EU leaders would be clear: She won’t be here for ever. Brando Benifei, an MEP in Italy’s center-left opposition Democratic Party, conceded that other EU leaders saw her as the leader of a “ultra-stable government.” But, if she were to lose the referendum, he argued “she would inevitably lose that aura.” “Everyone remembers how it ended for Renzi’s coalition after he lost his referendum,” Benifei added, in reference to former Democratic Party Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who resigned after his own failed referendum in 2016. MACHIAVELLIAN MELONI Meloni owes much of her success on the EU stage to canny opportunism. At the beginning of the year, she slyly spotted an opportunity — suddenly wavering on the Mercosur trade deal, which Rome has long supported — to win extra cash for farmers that would please her powerful farm unions at home. She held off from actually killing the agreement, something that would have lost her friends among other capitals. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at a signing ceremony during an Italy-Germany Intergovernmental Summit in Rome on Jan. 23, 2026. | Pool photo by Michael Kappeler/AFP via Getty Images The Italian leader “knows how to read the room very well,” said one European diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss European Council dynamics.   Teresa Coratella, deputy head of the Rome office at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations, said Meloni had  “a political cunning” that allowed her to build “variable geometries,” allying with different European leaders by turn based on the subject under discussion. One of her first victories came on migration in 2023. She was able to elevate the issue to the top level of the European Council, and even managed to secure a visit by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Tunisia, eventually resulting in the signing of a pact on the issue. Others wins followed.  Last December, with impeccable timing, Meloni unexpectedly threw her lot in with Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever at the last minute, scuppering a plan to fund Ukraine’s defenses with Russian frozen assets, instead pushing for more EU joint debt. Italian diplomats said that Meloni is a careful student, showing up to summits always having read the relevant documents, and having asking the apposite questions. That wasn’t always the case with former Italian prime ministers.  They said her choice of functionaries — rewarding competence over and above political affiliation — also helps. These include her chief diplomatic consigliere Fabrizio Saggio and Vincenzo Celeste, ambassador to the EU. Neither is considered close politically to Meloni.   Her biggest coup, though, has been shunting aside France as Germany’s main European partner on key files, with her partnership with Merz even being dubbed “Merzoni.” ROLLING THE DICE Meloni’s strength partly explains why she dared call the referendum. Italy’s right has for decades complained that the judiciary is biased to the left. It’s a feud that goes back to the Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) anti-corruption drive in the 1990s that pulverized the political elite of that time, and the constant court cases against playboy premier and media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi, father of the modern center-right. The proposal in the plebiscite is to restructure the judiciary. But it’s a high-stakes gamble, and why she called it seems something of a puzzle. The reforms themselves are highly technical — and by the government’s own admission won’t actually speed up Italy’s notoriously long court cases.    Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni attends the European Council meeting on June 26, 2025 in Brussels. | Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images Instead, the vote has turned into a more general vote of confidence in Meloni and her government. The timing is tough as Italians widely dislike her ally U.S. President Donald Trump and fear the war in Iran will drive up their already high power prices. Still, she is determined not to suffer Renzi’s fate and insists she will not step down even if she loses the referendum.  Asked at a conference on Thursday whether a loss would make Rome appear less stable in its dealings with other European capitals, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani was adamant that the referendum has “absolutely nothing to do with the stability of the government.” “This government will last until the day of the next national elections,” he added. A victory on Monday will put the wind in her sails before the next general elections, which have to be held by the end of 2027. It would also set the stage for other reforms that Meloni wants to enact: a move to a more presidential system, with a direct election of the prime minister, making the role more like the French presidency.  But a loss would galvanize the opposition — split between the populist 5Star Movement, and the traditional center-left Democratic Party. The danger is her rivals would round on her particularly over the economy. Even counting for the fact Italy has benefitted from the largest tranche of the Covid-era recovery package — growth has been sluggish, consistently below 1 percent, falling to 0.5 percent in 2025.  “We have a situation in which the country is increasingly heading toward stagnation and we have to ask ourselves what would have happened if we had not had the boost of the Recovery Fund,” said Enrico Borghi, a senator from Italia Viva, Renzi’s party. Procaccini, however, defended her, both on employment and growth. “It could be better,” he conceded. “But we are still talking about growth, unlike countries that in this historical phase are recording a decline, as in the case of Germany.”

ROME — Facing possible defeat in an important referendum, Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Thursday put herself at front of the campaign, throwing her full political weight behind a vote that is increasingly shaping into a test of her authority. The March 22-23 referendum on judicial reform is a decisive showdown for Meloni. The Italian right has long looked for an opportunity to remold a legal system that it sees as skewed to favor the left. But the national plebiscite has evolved beyond a vote on the rules governing the careers and oversight of judicial officials and into a broader vote of confidence in her and her government. The latest polls suggest she may be facing the first major reversal of her premiership, just as she appeared to be on a roll at home and in Brussels. Meloni’s tone was combative on Thursday, as she accused the current judicial structure of committing numerous miscarriages of justice, and calling some judgments “surreal.” Speaking at the Franco Parenti theater in Milan, Meloni doubled down on the central arguments of her campaign, insisting judges are unaccountable and out of control. She is also increasingly casting the judiciary as run by left-wing opposition “factions” and accusing judges of blocking her key goal of clamping down on illegal migration and crime. “If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance. We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk,” she said. “When justice doesn’t work you can’t do anything, no-one can do anything,” she said. “Except this time,” she added, urging people to get out and vote later this month. ENTERING THE RING In the months leading up to the vote, Meloni largely kept her distance from the campaign, encouraging allies and ministers to deliver the message while she limited herself to occasional remarks and sporadic attacks on judges. But with the final public polls last week suggesting her side will lose by around five points, the prime minister has now decided to step in more directly. Opposition figures say the move shows the government fears defeat. “The prime minister, in contradiction to her commitment not to involve the government in the referendum, has thrown herself headlong into the campaign,” said parliamentarian Alfredo D’Attorre, a senior figure in the opposition center-left Democratic Party,. “It is clear that she is very worried about the result.” He added voters might not be impressed if Meloni “spends the next two weeks being an influencer for the ‘yes’ vote” rather than governing Italy “at a moment of international tension.” Indeed, Meloni is having to weather political headwinds at home related to her alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is highly unpopular in Italy, and the war in Iran that Italians fear will increase their already steep power bills. POLITICAL GAMBLE The challenge for Meloni is that the referendum campaign revolves around technical institutional changes that are difficult to explain, and even harder to mobilize voters around. “The arguments are very technical and abstract which doesn’t win hearts,” said Giovanni Orsina, a political historian at Luiss University in Rome. “The opposition has a solid core of voters who will turn out against Meloni regardless. How can she mobilize her supporters? By creating an enemy and a clash between good and evil.” Meloni has tried to frame the referendum around issues that resonate more strongly with her electorate, particularly migration and public security. Orsina said Meloni’s cautious entry into the campaign made political sense. “As prime minister, you cannot expose yourself too much,” he said. “If you become the face of the campaign and lose, you pay the price.” “She will be monitoring private polls and testing the waters. If she enters the campaign and the polls move in her favor, she will become a stronger presence. If not, she may step back to avoid taking the full blow.” The dilemma is clear: without Meloni’s direct involvement, the campaign risks losing momentum. But the more closely the referendum becomes associated with her personally, the greater the political damage a loss would inflict on her. “The referendum has turned out to be an unnecessary risk for Meloni,” said Orsina. “This was selected as the easiest of the reforms she planned to carry through, but even so, it much less easy than expected.”  Italians know all too well that former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had to step down after a failed referendum on constitutional reform in 2016, but Meloni insists she’s going nowhere, whatever the result. “There’s no way I’ll resign under any circumstances. I want to see the end of this legislature,” she said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is increasingly distancing herself from the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The right-wing leader issued her strongest rebuke of the conflict so far in remarks to the parliament in Rome on Wednesday, describing the military campaign unfolding in the Middle East as part of a growing trend of interventions “outside the scope of international law.” Earlier in the week, Meloni had struck a more ambiguous note, saying she neither condemned nor agreed with the war. The brisk shift in tone — striking from a leader who built a reputation as one of Europe’s most-reliable U.S. allies — is a reflection of pressures closer to home. Airstrikes on Iran have proved deeply unpopular in Italy, where public opinion is overwhelmingly hostile toward the prospect of being drawn into another Middle East conflict. And with the government approaching a politically sensitive referendum about judicial reforms, which has increasingly become a plebiscite on Meloni’s coalition, the prime minister now faces the delicate task of maintaining her transatlantic alliances while also responding to domestic strains. Meloni appears to be unmistakably, yet cautiously, repositioning herself on the side of restraint. In her remarks, she condemned the bombing of a girls’ school that killed 168 people as a “massacre,” and requested responsibility be ascertained swiftly. Multiple media outlets have reported the school was probably hit by a U.S. strike on a neighboring Iranian naval base. Meloni now joins EU leaders including Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten in criticizing — with varying degrees of vigorousness — the strikes against Iran. She also sought to compare her stance on joint-use U.S.-Italian bases with that of Sánchez, who has openly condemned the war and has been praised by the Italian opposition. The question of whether U.S. forces could use joint bases in Italy to support strikes on Iran has become an especially sensitive domestic matter. Meloni has insisted that the bases are only being used for logistical and technical purposes under agreements signed in the 1950s — not for launching strikes — as the use of Italian air bases for military strikes would require explicit authorization from parliament. Meloni said her and Sánchez’s positions — that bases won’t be used for launching strikes on Iran, for example — are being perceived differently despite being the same. “It amazes me that the same people [Italy’s opposition] condemn this decision in our nation and praise it in Spain,” she said.

ROME — U.S. President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran are creating a problem for his ally Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of a high-stakes referendum on March 22-23, which polls suggest she risks losing. While the nationwide referendum is ostensibly about judicial reform, it has rapidly snowballed into a broader vote of confidence in Meloni and her right-wing government, Italy’s most stable in years. Meloni’s close alliance with Trump now threatens her political fortunes as he is highly unpopular in Italy, with 77 percent of people holding an “unfavorable” view of him according to the pollster Yougov. The war is also exacerbating widespread fears about an energy price shock — a major factor in a country that already pays some of the EU’s highest power prices. That hostility toward the U.S. president, as well as fears over the impact of the war on household bills, means Meloni is now treading a tightrope, avoiding criticizing her powerful ally in the White House while reassuring voters that Rome will not be dragged into the war. In a political compromise, Meloni on Thursday pledged air-defense support to Gulf states hit by retaliatory fire from Iran, and her defense minister said Italy would send “naval assets” to protect Cyprus. She is simultaneously insisting, however, that Italy will not give direct support to the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran, and notes that U.S. bases in Italy are authorized only to offer logistical support, not to conduct offensive operations. “We’re not at war; we don’t want to go to war,” she told RTL radio on Thursday. This balancing act over Iran could hardly come at a worse time for Meloni. Polls now suggest the referendum is too close to call, and that much will depend on the turnout. Should she lose, it would be a major set-back for a politician who has enjoyed an air of invincibility at home and on the EU stage in recent years. The Italian leader has invested heavily in her relationship with Trump, hoping to position herself as a kind of European “Trump whisperer” capable of maintaining influence in Washington. But that strategy is now beginning to carry political costs at home, with Italy’s marginal role in U.S. strategic decision-making laid bare by the stranding of her Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in Dubai last week, as the strikes unfolded without prior warning. Crosetto himself later conceded the powerlessness of America’s European allies in a parliamentary debate. He admitted the attack on Iran had “certainly occurred outside the rules of international law” but added no government — European or otherwise — could have prevented the strikes. The potential use of U.S. military bases in Italy also risks becoming politically explosive in a country where the public has historically been wary of being drawn into U.S.-led conflicts. The government insisted that the use of bases such as Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily is limited to logistical and technical support covered by long-standing bilateral agreements. Using Italian soil to provide support for strikes would require the government’s permission, which has not been requested, Meloni said in her comments to RTL on Thursday. In a political compromise, Giorgia Meloni on Thursday pledged air-defense support to Gulf states hit by retaliatory fire from Iran. | Antonio Masiello/Getty Images Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told parliament that the government’s actions were meant to protect Italian citizens in the region as well as shipping lanes, and to prevent a spike in energy prices. “We are not just addressing Trump’s positions; the safety of our fellow citizens is the priority.” Conscious of the danger posed by soaring energy prices, Meloni on Tuesday summoned energy leaders to her office for ministerial talks on energy security. She told Italian radio that her government was “working incessantly” on stemming price rises in food and energy. Sensing her political vulnerability, however, opposition parties have criticized her for refusing to condemn the strikes and over her subservience to the U.S. During the debate in the parliament, Angelo Bonelli of the Green and Left Alliance accused the government of  being subservient to Trump. “You are leading Italy into war, minister. Do you know why? Because when a military aircraft arrives, be it a cargo plane or something else, and goes to perform maintenance or something else, those planes will then go bomb, they will go into the theater of war, they will provide military logistical support,” he said. “What’s the difference between military logistical support and someone who goes bombing? It means being at war, and we don’t agree. No, thank you!” Arnaldo Lomuti, a lawmaker from the populist 5Star Movement, quipped that Rome should distance itself from Washington and Israel, requesting that the government “impose sanctions against the United States, and present a military aid package for Iran.” Analyst Leo Goretti of the Istituto d’Affari Internazionali said Meloni “is keeping a low profile, well aware that public opinion is overwhelmingly against Italian involvement in the war, while needing not to damage relations with Trump.” Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report.

ROME — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was accused of trying to rig the next elections in her favor, after her ruling coalition struck a late-night deal on a new electoral law. The coalition parties say the bill, which regulates how seats are allocated after an election, would give the winner a strong working majority and avoid technocratic governments. But the law’s critics say it is designed to bolster Meloni’s government and keep the left out of power. “Their priority, their only preoccupation is to guarantee their own positions, changing the law in an unacceptable way,” the opposition center-left Democratic Party said in a statement. The opposition was caught off-guard when Meloni’s party, the right-wing Brothers of Italy, alongside her coalition partners the center-right Forza Italia and far-right League, negotiated a deal on the law late on Wednesday, bypassing dialogue with the opposition. The deal comes at a turbulent time for Italy’s political landscape, where the left is attempting to build a coalition and the right is coming under pressure from a new hard-right breakaway party, Futuro Nazionale, that formed after a schism in the League. Pollsters and analysts have speculated about possible new elections after a constitutional referendum in March, with the economy expected to take a turn for the worse in 2026 as the stimulus effect from the EU’s post-pandemic Recovery Fund fades. Analysis by polling agency You Trend released Friday predicted that the right-wing coalition would obtain 46 per cent of the vote under the current system, which would secure it 57 per cent of seats if this new bill is passed. Riccardo Magi of the centrist +Europa party called the bill manipulative and “incoherent” and said on Facebook that the coalition is treating the law “like a suit they want to tailor to their own measurements in order to stay in power.” Angelo Bonelli of the Green and Left Alliance said in a statement that it was a “clear attempt to manipulate the forthcoming elections” and showed the government was afraid of losing authority if it loses the referendum next month. The government is “ready to engage with everyone to improve the text,” Giovanni Donzelli, Brothers of Italy MP and Meloni’s representative at the negotiations, told reporters outside parliament on Thursday. The proposed bill removes first-past-the-post seats, which currently account for a third of those available in Italy’s parliament, in favor of a fully proportional system. In the 2022 elections the right won more than 80 per cent of these seats as their coalition united behind single candidates, while the left vote was fragmented. Crucially, a group of parties that secures over 40 percent of the vote would receive a bonus of 70 seats in the lower house and 35 seats in the Senate, thus ensuring a stable parliamentary majority. Representatives for Forza Italia and Brothers of Italy did not respond to requests for comment. The League declined to comment.