PARIS — French prosecutors on Tuesday recommended that a five-year electoral ban
on far-right leader Marine Le Pen should be confirmed — a move that, if accepted
by the court, would likely prevent her from running in next year’s presidential
election.
Le Pen’s far-right National Rally is comfortably ahead in polls ahead of the
first round of the 2027 election but she is currently looking unlikely to be
able to stand as the presidential candidate herself thanks to a five-year
election ban, imposed over her conviction last year for embezzling European
Parliament funds — a ban she is now appealing.
In that appeal proceeding on Tuesday, the prosecutors sought not only the
electoral prohibition but four years jail, with one served as a custodial
sentence.
In an unexpected twist, however, prosecutors did not insist that the ban should
be immediately implemented. This could offer her a theoretical long-shot back
into the race, but it appears legally complex and politically risky.
Le Pen herself did not signal any major shift in the case. In remarks to BFMTV,
Le Pen said the prosecution in the appeal was “following the path taken” during
the first trial.
The court is due to make a final decision on the appeal this summer.
When it came to her narrow route back to the presidential race, the prosecutors
said the court should not impose the five-year ban immediately because there was
insufficient proof that the three-time presidential candidate could commit
further crimes if she is not sanctioned immediately.
This means that, even if found guilty at appeal, Le Pen could still try to have
the penalty lifted by bringing the case before a supreme court.
The supreme court which would look into the case, the Cour de Cassation, said it
would examine the legal challenge and make a final ruling before the 2027
election “if possible.” That timing could be politically problematic for Le Pen,
if the supreme court does not come to a decision until shortly before the race.
Le Pen had said she would drop out of the running if her electoral ban was
upheld. It is unclear if a ban without immediate implementation, as sought by
the prosecutors, would now change her reasoning.
Le Pen has been increasingly expected to be replaced by her 30-year-old protégé
Jordan Bardella because of her legal woes. Although he originally triggered
doubts within his own political camp on his ability to stand the rigors of a
presidential election, he has surpassed Le Pen as France’s most popular
politician according to recent polling.
Le Pen has already run for president three times, making the runoff in the last
two elections and losing to Emmanuel Macron. The 2027 election is widely seen as
the best shot yet for a National Rally candidate to win and become the first
democratically elected far-right leader in France since World War II.
Le Pen has shifted her defense strategy since the start of her appeal trial,
with a partial acknowledgement that some wrongdoing may have been committed
unintentionally. The National Rally has described the case as politicized.
Le Pen and her co-defendants are accused of having embezzled funds from the
European Parliament by having party staff hired as parliamentary assistants,
while working solely on domestic affairs rather than legislative work.
Tag - Poll
PARIS — Anti-immigration MEP Sarah Knafo of the Reconquest party is set to
advance to the second round of the Paris mayoral election in what would be a
historic first for a far-right candidate, according to new polling shared with
POLITICO.
The survey from Cluster17, a prominent French pollster, shows Knafo, who
formally entered the race in January, winning 10 percent of the vote in the
municipal election next month.
The data suggests her campaign is building traction — a surprise in a city where
the far right has always struggled — as she was on course to win only 6 percent
in December.
Reconquest is the party founded by Knafo’s partner, maverick far-right
politician and commentator Ériz Zemmour, who came fourth in the first round of
the 2022 presidential election.
Candidates who meet the 10 percent support threshold in the first round on March
15 advance to the runoff and earn representation on the city council. As it
stands, that would see an unprecedented five-way race in the second round on
March 22.
Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire leads the race with 33 percent of the
vote, according to the poll. He’s followed by Rachida Dati, the conservative
culture minister, at 26 percent. Centrist Pierre-Yves Bournazel scored 14
percent, while Sophia Chikirou of the hard-left France Unbowed drew 12 percent.
Knafo’s platform includes several radical proposals such as halving the number
of public workers in Paris and rowing back on some of current Mayor Anne
Hidalgo’s signature policies, including reducing the speed limit on the Paris
ring road. Hidalgo also banished cars from the banks of the Seine River, but
Knafo wants instead to build a two-story passageway on the banks, with cars
traveling underground and pedestrians above.
Grégoire and Dati are clear front-runners in the race, but both have incentives
to forge an alliance with candidates on their political extremes between the
first and second rounds.
Jean-Yves Dormagen, president and founder of Cluster17, warned that Dati is
“caught in a pincer movement” between Knafo to her right and Bournazel in the
center.
“Dati doesn’t have a good campaign dynamic,” Dormagen said.
Despite Grégoire facing a similar risk of being outflanked by Chikirou to his
left, the Socialist candidate’s strong polling with voters from multicultural
backgrounds — a “decisive group” in Paris — gives him a boost, the pollster
said.
“It’s a real problem for Sophia Chikirou,” said Dormagen.
President Donald Trump rose to power on his immigration agenda. Now, it’s
threatening to box him in.
After months of aggressive enforcement actions meant to telegraph strength on
one of the Republican Party’s signature issues, the White House has had to
backtrack in the face of Americans’ backlash to its approach — particularly
after two protesters were killed by federal law enforcement agents in
Minneapolis.
But the calculus that forced the Trump administration to change course is a
double-edged sword: If the administration appears to ease up on its maximalist
stance against illegal immigration, it risks leaving its hardcore MAGA base
disenchanted at a moment when Republicans can’t afford to lose support. And if
it doesn’t, it risks alienating moderate Republicans, independents, young voters
and Latinos who support the administration’s immigration enforcement in theory
but dislike how it’s being executed.
“I worry because if we lose the agenda, we’re done — and people don’t fully
appreciate how big of an issue this is,” said Sean Spicer, Trump’s former press
secretary. “When you have a two-seat majority in the House or a two- or
three-seat majority in the Senate, you’re on a razor’s edge. To not acknowledge
that is ridiculous.”
For Trump, a midterms rout means the last two years of his administration will
be eaten up by Democratic stonewalling, investigations and likely impeachment
inquiries, rather than his own agenda — a situation the administration
desperately wants to avoid.
The result is a rare moment of vulnerability on Trump’s strongest issue, one
that has exposed fault lines inside the Republican Party, sharpened Democratic
attacks, and forced the White House into a defensive crouch it never expected to
take. Some Trump allies insist the GOP shouldn’t be scared of their best issue,
blaming Democrats for putting them on the back foot.
“This has been President Trump’s area of greatest success,” said Trump pollster
John McLaughlin. “You’re looking at the Republicans be defensive on something
they shouldn’t be defensive about.”
A recent POLITICO poll underscores the administration’s delicate balancing act:
1 in 5 voters who backed the president in 2024 say Trump’s mass deportation
campaign is too aggressive, and more than 1 in 3 Trump voters say that while
they support the goals of his mass deportation campaign, they disapprove of the
way he is implementing it.
The administration this week struggled to manage the political fallout from
demonstrator Alex Pretti’s killing, where even typically loyal Republicans
criticized the president and others called for the ousting of his top officials,
namely Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The White House softened its
hardline rhetoric, and Trump shifted his personnel in charge of Minneapolis
operations, sending border czar Tom Homan to the state to deescalate tensions on
the ground.
A subdued Homan told reporters Thursday that he had “productive” conversations
with state and local Democrats and that federal agents’ operations would be more
targeted moving forward. He vowed to stick by the administration’s mission, but
said he hopes to reduce Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s presence in the
city if federal officials get access to state jails.
The president “doesn’t want to be dealing with clashes between protesters and
federal agents on the ground in Minnesota,” said one person close to the White
House, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “If Trump was more invested in the
outcome of this, he would have sent in the National Guard. He would declare
martial law. He would be more aggressive.”
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson, in a statement, said that the
administration is always looking for “the most effective way” to implement what
it sees as a mandate from voters to carry out mass deportations.
“Our focus remains the same: prioritizing violent criminal illegal aliens while
also enforcing the law — anyone who is in the country illegally is eligible to
be deported,” she said, adding that includes “the President’s continued calls
for local Democrat leaders to work with the Administration to remove illegal
murderers, rapists, and pedophiles from their communities.”
Some Trump allies, fearful the aggressive tactics will isolate crucial swing
voters in November, have argued that Republicans have to keep the focus on
criminal arrests, public safety and the Trump administration’s success in
securing the southern border, which are more popular with voters across the
board.
But immigration hawks in the Republican Party have grown increasingly apoplectic
over the administration’s moves this week, including an apparent openness to
compromise with Democrats on policies to boost the oversight of federal
immigration officers. They argue the administration is paying too much attention
to cable news coverage and donor anxiety and not enough to the voters who
propelled Trump back into office.
“The upshot of the lame duck second Trump term was supposed to be that he was
going to get things done regardless of the pressure from consultants, pollsters
and left-wing Republicans. That doesn’t seem to be happening and it’s
disappointing,” said Mike Howell, president of the Oversight Project, a
conservative group. “I’m dumbfounded that CNN coverage seems to have more
influence over the White House’s immigration enforcement agenda than the base
that stood by Trump through everything over the last decade.”
Even so, some of the more hardline elements of the president’s base acknowledge
that the splashy optics of the administration’s immigration enforcement actions
have introduced a vulnerability.
“The big muscular show of force — you invite too much confrontation,” said a
second person close to the White House, also granted anonymity to speak
candidly. “Let’s try to be quieter about it but deport just as many people. Be a
little sneakier. Don’t have the flexing and the machismo part of it. There’s a
certain element of that that’s cool but as much as we can, why can’t we be
stealthy and pop up all over Minnesota?”
“We were almost provoking the reaction,” the person added. “I’m all for the
smartest tactics as long as the end result is as many deportations as possible.”
But the person warned that any perception of backtracking could depress a base
already uneasy about the economy.
“Our base is generally not wealthy and they’re not doing well,” the person said.
“They’re struggling. If you take away immigration — if they don’t believe he
means it — holy cow, that’s not good.”
MARSEILLE, France — Violence at a drug trafficking hotspot in the social housing
complex next to Orange’s headquarters in Marseille forced the telecoms giant to
lock its forest-green gates and order its thousands of employees to work from
home.
The disruption to such a recognizable company — one that gives its name to the
city’s iconic football venue — became a fresh symbol of how drug trafficking and
insecurity are reshaping politics ahead of municipal elections.
In a recent poll, security ranked among voters’ top concerns, forcing candidates
across the spectrum to pitch competing responses to the drug trade.
“The number one theme is security,” center-right candidate Martine Vassal told
POLITICO. “In the field, what I hear most often are people who tell me that they
no longer travel in the heart of the city for that reason.”
French political parties are watching the contest closely for clues about the
broader battles building toward the 2027 presidential race.
In many ways, Marseille is a microcosm of France as a whole, reflecting the
country’s wider demographics and its biggest political battles.
The city is diverse. Multicultural and low-income neighborhoods that tend to
support the hard left abut conservative suburbs that have swung to the far right
in recent years. As in much of France, support for the political center in
Marseille is wobbling.
The left-wing incumbent Benoît Payan remains a slight favorite in the March
contest, but Franck Allisio, the candidate for the far-right National Rally, is
just behind, with both men polling at around 30 percent.
The issues at play strike at the heart of Marseille’s identity: its notorious
drug trade, entrenched poverty and failure to seize on the competitive
advantages of a young, sun-drenched city strategically perched on the
Mediterranean.
Whichever candidate can articulate a platform that speaks to Marseille’s local
realities while addressing anxieties shared across France will be well
positioned to take city hall — and to provide their party with a potential
blueprint for the 2027 presidential campaign.
SECOND CITY
Marseille has always had something of a little-brother complex with Paris, a
resentment that goes beyond the football rivalry of Paris Saint-Germain and
Olympique de Marseille.
Many in the city regard the French capital as a distant power center that tries
to impose its own solutions on Marseille without sufficiently consulting local
experts.
People in Marseilles pay tribute to murdered Mehdi Kessaci. 20, whose brother is
a prominent anti drug trafficking campaigner, and protest against trafficking,
Nov. 22, 2025. | Clement Mahoudeau/AFP via Getty Images
“Paris treats Marseille almost like a colony,” said Allisio. “A place you visit,
make promises to — without any guarantee the money will ever be spent.”
When it comes to drug trafficking and security, leaders across the political
spectrum agree that Paris is prescribing medicine that treats the symptoms of
the crisis, not the cause.
Violence associated with the drug trade was thrust back in the spotlight in
November with the killing of 20-year-old Mehdi Kessaci. Authorities are
investigating the crime as an act of intimidation. Mehdi’s brother Amine Kessaci
is one of the city’s most prominent anti-trafficking campaigners, rising to
prominence after their half-brother — who was involved in the trade — was killed
several years earlier.
President Emmanuel Macron, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez and Justice Minister
Gérald Darmanin all visited Marseille in the wake of Kessaci’s killing,
outlining a tough-on-crime agenda to stop the violence and flow of drugs.
Locals stress that law-and-order investments must be matched with funding for
public services. Unless authorities improve the sluggish economy that has
encouraged jobless youths to turn to the drug trade, the problem will continue.
“Repression alone is not efficient,” said Kaouther Ben Mohamed, a former social
worker turned activist. “If that was the case, the drug trade wouldn’t have
flourished like it did.”
Housing is another issue, with many impoverished residents living in dangerous,
dilapidated buildings.
“We live in a shit city,” said Mahboubi Tir, a tall, broad-shouldered young man
with a rugby player’s physique. “We’re not safe here.”
Tir spent a month in a coma and several more in a hospital last April after he
was assaulted during a parking dispute. His face was still swollen and distorted
when he spoke to POLITICO in December about how the incident reshaped his
relationship with the city he grew up in.
“I almost died, and I was angry at the city,” said Tir, who suffers from memory
loss and has only a vague recollection of what led to the assault, as he sipped
coffee in the backroom office of a tiny, left-leaning grassroots political party
where he volunteers, Citizen Ambition.
SECURITY PROBLEM
To what extent Marseille’s activist groups can bring about change in a city
whose struggles have lasted for decades remains to be seen, but the four leading
candidates for mayor share a similar diagnosis.
They all believe the lurid crime stories making national headlines are a
byproduct of a lack of jobs and neglected public services — and that the French
state’s responses miss the mark. Rather than relying on harsher punishments as a
deterrent, they argue the state should prioritize local policing and public
investment.
When Payan announced his candidacy for reelection, he pledged free meals for
15,000 students to get them back in school and to double the number of local
cops as part of a push for more community policing.
Allisio’s platform puts the emphasis on security-related spending: increased
video surveillance, more vehicles for local police and the creation of
“specialized units to combat burglary and public disorder.”
Vassal — the center-right backed by the conservative Les Républicains and
parties aligned with Macron — has similarly put forward a proposal to arm fare
enforcers in public transport.
Both Allisio and Vassal are calling for unspecified spending cuts while
preserving basic services provided at the local level like schools, public
transportation and parks and recreation.
Vassal, who is polling third, said she would make public transportation free for
residents younger 26 to travel across the spread-out city. She accuses the
current administration of having delivered an insufficient number of building
permits, slowing the development of new housing and office buildings and thus
the revitalization of Marseille’s most embattled areas — a trend she pledged to
reverse.
Both Vassal and Allisio are advocating for less local taxes on property to boost
small businesses and create new jobs. Allisio has also put forward a proposal to
make parking for less 30 minutes free to facilitate deliveries and quick stops
to buy products.
The outlier — at least when it comes to public safety — is Sébastien Delogu, a
disciple of three-time hard-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Though Delogu is polling fourth at 14 percent, he can’t be counted out, given
that Mélenchon won Marseille in the first round of the last two presidential
elections.
Though Delogu acknowledges that crime is a problem, he doesn’t want to spend
more money on policing. He instead proposes putting money that other candidates
want to spend on security toward poverty reduction, housing supply and the local
public health sector.
Whoever wins, however, will have to grapple with an uncomfortable truth. Aside
from local police responsible for public tranquility and health, policing and
criminal justice matters are largely managed at the national level.
The solution to Marseille’s problems will depend, to no small extent, on the
outcome of what happens next year in Paris.
LONDON — Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party retracted a contentious statement
that referred to the mental health of former Tory cabinet minister Suella
Braverman who earlier Monday announced her defection to Nigel Farage’s Reform
UK.
Braverman, a former home secretary, became the insurgent right-wing outfit’s
eighth MP on Monday when she resigned her Tory membership of 30 years. Braverman
will stay on as MP for her Fareham and Waterlooville constituency.
Following her switch to Farage’s poll-topping party, the Conservatives sent a
statement to journalists lambasting her record, and making reference to her
mental health.
“It was always a matter of when, not if, Suella would defect. The Conservatives
did all we could to look after Suella’s mental health, but she was clearly very
unhappy,” the spokesperson said.
The backlash came quickly. A Reform spokesperson said: “It’s gutter politics, a
sign of what the Conservative Party has become.”
Government minister Mike Tapp described the remarks as “below the standards we
expect,” while Labour colleague Josh Fenton-Glynn said it was “horrible.”
“Attacking someone on mental health is wrong,” he wrote on X. “The kind of first
draft of an email you do before having a cup of tea and letting your better
angels take over.”
A new version of the Conservative statement, which was sent around an
hour-and-a-half after the original, pointedly omitted the “mental health”
comments, with Conservative officials saying the original “draft” had been sent
in “error.”
It is the latest in a series of Conservative attacks on defectors to Reform.
When Robert Jenrick quit as shadow justice secretary to join Reform, Badenoch
shrugged off the departure of one of her most recognizable MPs.
She painted Jenrick as someone who had been working to undermine her party: “So
I’m just glad that Nigel Farage is doing my spring cleaning for me. He’s taking
away my problems.”
When former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi jumped to Farage’s ship, Conservative
officials let it be known that he’d been asking Badenoch for a peerage just
weeks before.
Sam Francis contributed reporting.
PARIS — Europeans are downbeat about the state of the world, their countries,
their circumstances, and the dangers posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents said the “best years are behind us” (63
percent), while 77 percent believe life in their country “will be harder for the
next generation, according to a poll by the strategic communications firm FGS
Global shared exclusively with POLITICO, which surveyed more than 11,000 people
across 23 European Union countries in November.
The dour sentiment is especially widespread in Western and Central Europe. A
majority of Europeans (76 percent) said democracy in their country is in
decline.
The poll reveals widespread concern about the state of European democracies and
the capacity of governments to meet their challenges, which include war on the
continent’s eastern flank, economic and geopolitical uncertainty and growing
friction with Washington.
Even before the U.S. president declared he wanted to take over Greenland, a
large majority of Europeans viewed him as a negative force for peace, their
country and the global economy.
“It is clear that there is a very, very high degree of pessimism,” said Craig
Oliver, co-global head of strategy at FGS Global, who previously served as a
communications advisor to former British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Though governments should be alert to that mood, they can also try to harness
it, he said: “It’s in those moments, historically, when people are pessimistic
that change and improvement can come.”
EUROPEANS TO THEIR GOVERNMENTS: YOU CAN DO BETTER
In nearly every country polled, majorities believe their country is on the wrong
track. The exceptions are Poland, Lithuania and Denmark — even though they are
among those most exposed to Russia or, for Denmark, U.S. pressure over
Greenland.
Oliver attributed that divergence to how countries are governed. “There are
various countries where people feel that there is leadership and change and
things are being addressed,” he said. “People feel very strongly that they do
want to be led; they want clarity from governments.”
The survey is bad news for most governments, revealing weak public trust in
political systems and skepticism about their capacity to function effectively.
Asked to pick between two opposing statements, at least half of respondents said
their country’s political system “is failing the people and needs fundamental
reform,” rather than “works fairly well and doesn’t need significant reform.”
Nordic countries, generally less gloomy, had the most positive numbers. Negative
opinions were higher in Romania (91 percent), Greece (88 percent) and Bulgaria
(86 percent).
In all countries, more than 70 percent of respondents felt they were “entitled
to expect more from government,” as opposed to expecting too much.
WANTED: STRONG DEFENSE
In light of the many challenges facing the continent, Europeans want their
leaders to step up — and gear up.
Asked whether they agreed their countries “should be more assertive of [their]
national interests even if this creates friction with other countries,” a large
majority approved (71 percent).
Respondents also backed higher investment in European security, with 57 percent
supporting more “spending on defense and security.”
TRUMP EFFECT
Though the survey was conducted before the latest bout of hostility from Trump,
the U.S. president was already seen as a negative force.
Other polls have shown that Trump is unpopular on the continent, even among
supporters of the right-wing populist parties he sees as allies.
About two-thirds of respondents to the FGS Global survey said they were
pessimistic about Trump’s impact in the year ahead on the global economy (69
percent), peace and security (64 percent) and their own country (64 percent).
Asked if Trump deserves the Nobel Prize, 77 percent said he does not.
FGS interviewed 11,714 adults from 23 European Union countries between Nov. 10
to Nov. 23, 2025. A minimum of 500 interviews were conducted in each of the
following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.
Interviews were conducted online and the data weighted to be nationally
representative of each country by gender, age, income, region and socio-economic
group. Data from a nationally representative poll of 500 adults is accurate to a
margin of error of +/- 4.4% at 95% confidence.
President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportation campaign is starting to make
some Republicans uneasy.
As midterms approach, GOP lawmakers, candidates, strategists and people close to
the White House are warning that the administration’s mass deportations policy —
and the wall-to-wall coverage of enforcement operations, arrests of U.S.
citizens and clashes between protesters and federal officials — could cost them
their razor-thin House majority.
The administration’s forceful approach across the U.S. risks repelling the swing
voters who fueled Trump’s return to the White House but are increasingly wary of
how the president is implementing a central campaign promise. Further
complicating the issue is that Republicans are split on the best way to address
the eroding support, with some in the party viewing it as a messaging problem,
while others argue that the administration’s policy itself is driving voters’
concerns.
“If we don’t change our approach, it will have a negative effect on the
midterms, for sure,” said Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who recently decided not
to seek reelection.
A new POLITICO poll underscores those worries: Nearly half of all Americans — 49
percent — say Trump’s mass deportation campaign is too aggressive, including 1
in 5 voters who backed the president in 2024. In a sign of growing discomfort
among the president’s base, more than 1 in 3 Trump voters say that while they
support the goals of his mass deportation campaign, they disapprove of the way
he is implementing it.
The president ran on removing the millions of immigrants living in the country
illegally, while connecting former President Joe Biden’s border crisis to the
violent crime plaguing U.S. cities. The White House has pressured immigration
officials to fulfill the president’s goal, an effort that requires targeting
immigrants well beyond violent criminals.
But Americans broadly do not support such a sweeping approach. In the poll, 38
percent of Americans said the federal government should prioritize deporting
immigrants who have committed serious crimes, while 21 percent said the
administration should only deport serious criminals. The poll was conducted from
Jan. 16 to 19, after an ICE agent killed Renee Good in Minneapolis. There was
another federal officer-involved shooting on Saturday in Minneapolis, though
details remain scarce.
“ICE should focus on the bad hombres. The bad hombres, that’s it, not the
cleaning ladies,” said Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.). “One thing is the gardeners,
another thing is the gangsters. One thing is the cooks, the other thing is the
coyotes.”
The White House, so far, has maintained its heavy enforcement presence in
Minneapolis, betting that the issue is messaging, not its policies. The
president said this week that his administration needs to do more to highlight
the criminals they’ve arrested during the Minnesota crackdown.
A person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said
Republicans have to keep the focus on criminal arrests, public safety and the
Trump administration’s success in securing the southern border, which are more
popular with voters across the board. Otherwise, the person worried, the GOP is
losing support with moderate Republicans, independents, Latinos and young
voters.
“Do I think we have to be a little bit smarter about it? I don’t think there’s
any question about it,” the person said of the party’s messaging. “The reason
why crime is down across the country, especially in these Democratic states and
these blue cities, is because of one thing — the only thing that changed is
President Trump’s policies.”
Most Trump voters do support his mass deportations campaign, with 55 percent
saying the actions, including his widespread deployment of ICE agents across the
U.S. are “about right,” the POLITICO Poll with Public First finds. But there is
a notable split between Trump’s strongest 2024 voters and those who are more
malleable: Among the 2024 Trump voters who do not identify as MAGA, a more
moderate group of Trump supporters, 29 percent say his campaign is too
aggressive. Seventeen percent of these voters say it is not aggressive enough.
And a 43 percent plurality of non-MAGA Trump voters say they support the goals
of Trump’s deportation agenda but not how he is implementing it, compared to 28
percent of MAGA Trump voters — his strongest supporters — who say the same.
The poll results suggest Americans are uneasy with the Trump administration’s
approach, and that even many Trump voters who support increased immigration
enforcement oppose the president’s sprawling deportation campaign.
“They are going to be worried about, OK, is ICE using excessive force? Are they
going after, you know, moms and dads that have a clean record?” said Brendan
Steinhauser, a GOP strategist in Texas. “I don’t think that plays well with
independents and moderates. I don’t think it plays well with center-right
Republicans. It does seem to play well with a smaller subset of the Republican
Party. But I don’t think that’s where, nationally, the people who swing
elections are on this.”
Some battleground Republicans, worried immigration enforcement could become a
political albatross in an already tough election year, are trying to walk a
tightrope of showing support for ICE in general while also calling for restraint
in their actions.
“ICE exists to carry out laws passed by Congress, and in that sense, its role is
absolutely necessary, but at the same time, enforcement must be professional and
targeted and humane,” said Republican candidate Trinh Ha, a Vietnamese immigrant
running in Washington’s eighth district, a seat currently held by Democratic
Rep. Kim Schrier. “What’s happening right now underscores why enforcement must
always be paired with restraint and accountability.”
A White House spokesperson said the president’s mass deportations agenda was a
central campaign promise and argued that the administration’s enforcement — and
its message — has and will continue to focus on the “worst of the worst,”
including people with convictions for assault, rape and murder. The official
said the administration won’t allow criminals to remain free in cities where
“Democrats don’t cooperate with us,” adding that there “wouldn’t be a need for
as much of an ICE presence if we had cooperation.”
The president has expressed concerns about how ICE is being perceived. He posted
Tuesday on Truth Social that the Department of Homeland Security and ICE needed
to do more to highlight the “murderers and other criminals” they’re detaining,
arguing that it would help boost Americans’ support of ICE. He then took to the
podium during a White House press briefing and spent the first 10 minutes
sifting through photos of immigrants who had committed crimes.
“Because Minnesota is so much in the fray, and I say to my people all the time —
and they’re so busy doing other things — ‘they don’t say it like they should,’”
Trump said. “They are apprehending murderers and drug dealers, a lot of bad
people. … I say why don’t you talk about that? Because people don’t know.”
Vice President JD Vance traveled to Minneapolis on Thursday, where he said he
wanted to “lower the temperature.” Flanked by immigration agents, Vance
empathized with community members’ concerns, while blaming state and local
officials’ lack of cooperation and far-left agitators for fueling chaos in the
city.
“We want to be able to enforce the immigration laws on the one hand, while on
the other hand, we want to make sure the people in Minneapolis are able to go
about their day,” he said.
It remains to be seen whether the administration’s message will be enough to
tame the concerns coursing through the party. While many Republicans remain
confident that they are still most trusted on immigration and border security —
and that Democrats will ultimately be seen as too extreme in their response —
others warn that Trump’s base won’t be the voters who swing races in 2026.
Immigration still ranks far below economic concerns for voters, according to The
POLITICO Poll. When asked to select the top three issues facing the country,
just 21 percent cited illegal immigration, compared with half who said the cost
of living. But as the White House continues to make immigration a policy
priority, crucial swaths of swing voters and soft Trump supporters are
expressing discomfort with some of the administration’s tactics.
“I’d reframe the ‘raids’ narrative,” said Buzz Jacobs, a Republican strategist
and White House immigration policy director for former President George W. Bush.
“The reality is that most enforcement activity is routine and never becomes a
headline.”
Just hours after federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in
Minneapolis, Trump administration officials called the deceased a “would-be
assassin” and blamed Democrats for siding with “terrorists.”
Democrats, meanwhile, renewed calls for Minnesota officials to investigate the
shooting and characterized the president’s immigration actions as “a campaign of
organized brutality.”
With few official details released on the latest shooting in Minneapolis, the
White House and Democrats retreated to heated rhetoric in the immediate
aftermath of Saturday’s incident, with President Donald Trump accusing state
officials of “inciting Insurrection” and Democrats accusing federal agents of
“murder.”
“A would-be assassin tried to murder federal law enforcement and the official
Democrat account sides with the terrorists,” deputy chief of staff Stephen
Miller wrote on X Saturday, referring to a tweet from the Democratic National
Committee about the shooting that stated “Get ICE out of Minnesota NOW.”
Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota focused her anger on ICE, posting on
social media: “This appears to be an execution by immigration enforcement. I am
absolutely heartbroken, horrified, and appalled that federal agents murdered
another member of our community.”
In Saturday morning’s shooting, a 37-year-old man was shot and killed by federal
agents in Minneapolis who claimed he approached federal officers with a 9 mm gun
but didn’t specify if he was holding or brandishing the weapon. Various videos
of the incident appear to show the man holding a phone.
Minneapolis has emerged as the epicenter of the debate over the Trump
administration’s immigration actions and deployment of federal agents. It came
to a head after a federal agent shot and killed a 37-year-old woman, Renee Good,
earlier this month in an incident that has sparked weeks of demonstrations in
the city and fights between the White House and state officials over who would
investigate the shootings.
Trump, in a post on Truth Social, described the man who was shot Saturday as a
“gunman” and suggested a cover-up by Minnesota Democrats. The Justice
Department has subpoenaed several Democratic Minneapolis state officials,
including Gov. Tim Walz, who called the DOJ’s subpoena a “partisan distraction.”
“AMONG OTHER THINGS, THIS IS A ‘COVER UP’ FOR THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THAT HAVE
BEEN STOLEN FROM THE ONCE GREAT STATE (BUT SOON TO BE GREAT AGAIN!) OF
MINNESOTA!” Trump wrote in a separate post.
Trump also assailed Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, a Democrat, and Walz in the
first Saturday post, accusing them of “inciting Insurrection, with their
pompous, dangerous, and arrogant rhetoric.”
U.S. Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino told reporters at a Saturday press
conference that the incident “looks like a situation where an individual wanted
to do maximum damage and massacre law enforcement,” though he didn’t provide any
evidence for his claim.
“If you obstruct a law enforcement officer or assault a law enforcement officer,
you are in violation of the law and will be arrested,” he added. “Our law
enforcement officers take an oath to protect the public.”
Video of the shooting, posted on social media and verified by The New York
Times, shows the 37-year-old man appearing to film agents in Minneapolis on
Saturday before they push him and several others back. The videos don’t appear
to show the man drawing his weapon, but not all angles are accounted for. During
a struggle with the man on the ground, an agent fires several shots, then the
group of federal agents back away.
The man, identified by the Minneapolis Star Tribune as Alex Pretti, had a legal
permit to carry a firearm, according to Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O’Hara,
who spoke during a press conference Saturday.
Bovino told reporters that “an individual approached U.S. Border Patrol agents
with a nine millimeter semi-automatic handgun. The agents attempted to disarm
the individual, but he violently resisted. Fearing for his life and the lives
and safety of fellow officers, a border patrol agent fired defensive shots.” But
when asked by a reporter when the individual drew his firearm, Bovino said the
shooting is still under investigation.
The latest POLITICO Poll illustrates just how sharply views of ICE — and its
presence in cities across the country — diverge along partisan lines. A majority
of voters who backed Trump in 2024 — 57 percent — say risks to the lives of
anti-ICE protestors are a price worth paying to carry out immigration
enforcement, compared with just 15 percent of voters who backed former Vice
President Kamala Harris.
By contrast, nearly three-quarters of Harris voters — 71 percent — say it
is not worth risking the lives of anti-ICE protesters to conduct immigration
enforcement, a view shared by just 31 percent of Trump voters, the poll,
conducted from Jan. 16 to 19, found.
The divide extends to perceptions of public safety: 64 percent of Trump voters
say ICE agents make U.S. cities safer, while 80 percent of Harris voters say the
opposite, that their presence is making them more dangerous.
Democrats also used heated language to describe the shooting. During a
Democratic Senate primary debate in Texas on Saturday, state Rep. James Talarico
raised the Minneapolis shooting, saying: “ICE shot a mother in the face. ICE
kidnapped a 5-year-old boy. ICE executed a man in broad daylight on our streets
just this morning. It’s time to tear down this secret police force and replace
it with an agency that actually is going to focus on public safety.”
His opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, also weighed in: “This is the fifth-highest
funded military force in the entire world. And what are they doing? They’re
killing people in the middle of the street.”
Walz on Saturday urged the federal government to allow Minnesota officials to
take control of the probe into the shooting. He told reporters that he said to
the White House in an early morning call that “the federal government cannot be
trusted to lead this investigation. The state will handle it, period.”
“As I said last week, this federal occupation of Minnesota long ago stopped
being a matter of immigration enforcement,” Walz said at a press conference
Saturday. “It’s a campaign of organized brutality against the people of our
state. And today, that campaign claimed another life. I’ve seen the videos from
several angles. And it’s sickening.”
When asked for comment, the White House referred POLITICO to Trump’s Truth
Social post and to a post on X from the Department of Homeland Security, which
claimed, “The officers attempted to disarm the suspect but the armed suspect
violently resisted.”
They did not respond to requests to questions as to what evidence showed the man
who was shot was a “terrorist.”
Vice President JD Vance also placed the blame of Saturday’s shooting at
Minnesota leaders’ feet, saying their unwillingness to work with immigration
enforcement agents was the primary reason for the shooting.
“When I visited Minnesota, what the ICE agents wanted more than anything was to
work with local law enforcement so that situations on the ground didn’t get out
of hand,” he wrote on X. “The local leadership in Minnesota has so far refused
to answer those requests.”
Liz Crampton contributed to this report.
Its been a bad stretch of polling for President Donald Trump.
In recent weeks, a string of new polls has found Trump losing ground with key
constituencies, especially the young, non-white and low-propensity voters who
swung decisively in his direction in 2024. The uptick in support for Trump among
those non-traditional Republican voters helped fuel chatter of an enduring
“realignment” in the American electorate — but the durability of that
realignment is now coming into doubt with those same groups cooling on Trump.
Surveying the findings of the most recent New York Times-Siena poll, polling
analyst Nate Cohn bluntly declared that “the second Trump coalition has
unraveled.”
Is it time to touch up the obituaries for the Trumpian realignment? To find out,
I spoke with conservative pollster and strategist Patrick Ruffini, whose 2024
book “Party of the People” was widely credited with predicting the contours of
Trump’s electoral realignment.
Ruffini cautioned against prematurely eulogizing the GOP’s new coalition, noting
that the erosion of support has so far not extended to the constituencies that
have served as the primary drivers of the Trumpian realignment — particularly
white working-class voters and working-class Latinos and Asian Americans. But he
also acknowledged that the findings of the recent polls should raise alarms for
Republicans ahead of 2026 and especially 2028.
His advice to Trump for reversing the trend: a relentless focus on
“affordability,” which the White House has so far struggled to muster, and which
remains the key issue dragging down the president.
“I think that is undeniable,” he said. “It’s the number one issue among the
swing voter electorate.”
This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Based on your own polling, do you agree that “the second Trump coalition has
unraveled?”
It really depends on how you define the Trump coalition. The coalition that has
really reshaped American politics over the last decade has been a coalition that
saw voters who are aligned with a more populist view of America come into the
Republican Party — in many cases, after voting for Barack Obama twice. Those
shifts have proven to be pretty durable, especially among white working-class
voters but also among conservative Hispanic voters and conservative Asian
American voters.
You have another group of voters who is younger and disconnected from politics —
a group that had been really one of the core groups for Barack Obama and the
Democrats back in the 2010s. They didn’t always vote, but there was really no
hope or prospect for Republicans winning that group or being very competitive
with that group. That happens for the first time in 2024, when that specific
combination of young, minority, male voters really comes into play in a big way.
But that shift right has proven to be a little bit less durable — and maybe a
lot less durable — because of the nature of who those voters are. They’re not
really connected to one political party, and they’re inherently non-partisan.
So what you’re seeing is less of a shift among people who reliably vote in
midterms, and what we are seeing is more of a shift among those infrequent
voters. The question then becomes are these voters going to show up in 2026?
How big of a problem is it for Republicans if they don’t? How alarmed should
Republicans be by the current trends?
I think they’re right to focus on affordability. You’ve seen that as an
intentional effort by the White House, including what seems like embracing some
Democratic policy proposals that also are in some ways an end-run around
traditional Republican and conservative economics — things like a 10 percent cap
on credit card interest.
What’s the evidence that cost of living is the thing that’s primarily eroding
Republican support among that group of voters you described?
I think that is undeniable. It’s the number one issue among the swing voter
electorate. However you want to define the swing voter electorate in 2024, cost
of living was far and away the number one issue among the Biden-to-Trump voters
in 2024. It is still the number one issue. And that’s because of demographically
who they are. The profile of the voter who swung in ‘24 was not just minority,
but young, low-income, who tends to be less college-educated, less married and
more exposed to affordability concerns.
So I think that’s obviously their north star right now. The core Democratic
voter is concerned about the erosion of norms and democracy. The core Republican
voter is concerned about immigration and border security. But this swing vote is
very, very much concerned about the cost of living.
Is there any evidence that things like Trump’s immigration crackdown or his
foreign policy adventurism are contributing at all to the erosion of support
among this group?
I have to laugh at the idea of foreign policy being decisive for a large segment
of voters. I think you could probably say that, to the extent that Trump had
some non-intervention rhetoric, there might be some backlash among some of the
podcast bros, or among the Tucker Carlson universe. But that is practically a
non-entity when it comes to the actual electorate and especially this group that
is floating between the two political parties. Maybe there’s a dissident faction
on the right that is particularly focused on this, but what really matters is
this cost-of-living issue, which people don’t view as having been solved by
Trump coming into office. The White House would say — and Vance said recently —
that it takes a while to turn the Titanic around.
Which is not the most reassuring metaphor, but sure.
Exactly, but nonetheless. I think a lot of these things are very interesting
bait for media, but they are not necessarily what is really driving the voters
who are disconnected from these narratives.
What about his immigration agenda? Does that seem to be having any specific
effect?
I do think there’s probably some aspect of this that might be challenging with
Latinos, but I think it’s very easy to fall back into the 2010 pattern of saying
Latino voters are inordinately primarily focused on immigration, which has
proven incorrect time after time after time. So, yes, I would say the ICE
actions are probably a bit negative, but I think Latino voters primarily share
the same concerns as other voters in the electorate. They’re primarily focused
on cost of living, jobs and health care.
How would Trump’s first year in office have looked different if he had been
really laser-focused on consolidating the gains that Republicans saw among these
voters in 2024? What would he have done that he didn’t do, and what shouldn’t he
have done that he did do?
I would first concede that the focus on affordability needed to be, like, a Day
1 concern. I will also concede how hard it is to move this group that is very,
very disaffected from traditional politics and doesn’t trust or believe the
promises made by politicians — even one as seemingly authentic as Trump. I go
back to 2018. While in some ways you would kill for the economic perceptions
that you had in 2018, that didn’t seem to help them much in the midterms.
The other problem with a laser focus on affordability on Day 1 is that I don’t
think it clearly aligns with what the policy demanders on the right are actually
asking for. If you ask, “What is MAGA economic policy?”, for many, MAGA economic
policy is tariffs — and in many ways, tariffs run up against an impulse to do
something about affordability. Now, to date, we haven’t really seen that
actually play out. We haven’t really seen an increase in the inflation rate,
which is good. But there’s an opportunity cost to focusing on certain issues
over this focus on affordability.
I think the challenge is that I don’t think either party has a pre-baked agenda
that is all about reducing costs. They certainly had a pre-baked agenda around
immigration, and they do have a pre-baked agenda around tariffs.
What else has stopped the administration from effectively consolidating this
part of the 2024 coalition?
It’s a very hard-to-reach group. In 2024, Trump’s team had the insight to really
put him front-and-center in these non-political arenas, whether it was going to
UFC matches or appearing on Joe Rogan. I think it’s very easy for any
administration to come into office and pivot towards the policy demanders on the
right, and I think that we’ve seen a pivot in that direction, at least on the
policy. So I would say they should be doing more of that 2024 strategy of
actually going into spaces where non-political voters live and talking to them.
Is it possible to turn negative perception around among this group? Or is it a
one-way ratchet, where once you’ve lost their support, it’s very hard to get it
back?
I don’t think it’s impossible. We are seeing some improvement in the economic
perception numbers, but we also saw how hard it is to sustain that. I think the
mindset of the average voter is just that they’re in a far different place
post-Covid than they were pre-Covid. There’s just been a huge negative bias in
the economy since Covid, so I think any thought that, “Oh, it would be easy that
Trump gets elected, and that’s going to be the thing that restores optimism” was
wrong. I think he’s taken really decisive action, and he has solved a lot of
problems, but the big nut to crack is, How do you break people out of this
post-Covid economic pessimism?
The more critical case that could be made against Trump’s approach to economic
policy is not just that he’s failed to address the cost-of-living crisis, but
that he’s actively done things that run contrary to any stated vision of
economic populism. The tax cuts are the major one, which included some populist
components tacked on, but which was essentially a massively regressive tax cut.
Do you think that has contributed to the sour feeling among this cohort at all?
I think we know very clearly when red lines are crossed and when different
policies really get voters writ large to sit up and take notice. For instance,
it was only when you had SNAP benefits really being cut off that Congress had
any impetus to actually solve the shutdown. I don’t think people are quite as
tuned in to the distributional effects of tax policy. The White House would say
that there were very popular parts of this proposal, like the Trump accounts and
no tax on tips, that didn’t get coverage — and our polling has shown that people
have barely actually heard about those things compared to some of the Democratic
lines of attack.
So I think that the tax policy debate is relatively overrated, because it simply
doesn’t matter as much to voters as much as the cultural issues or the general
sense that life is not as affordable as it was.
Assuming these trends continue and this cohort of sort of young, low-propensity
voters continues to shift away from Trump, what does the picture look like for
Republicans in 2026 and 2028?
I would say 2026 is perhaps a false indicator. In the midterms, you’re really
talking about an electorate that is going to be much older, much whiter, much
more college-educated. I think you really have to have a presidential campaign
to test how these voters are going to behave.
And presidential campaigns are also a choice between Republicans and Democrats.
I think certainly Republicans would want to make it into a
Republican-versus-Democrat choice, because polling is very clear that voters do
not trust the Democrats either on these issues. It’s clear that a lot of these
voters have actually moved away from the Democratic Party — they just haven’t
necessarily moved into the Republican Party.
Thinking big picture, does this erosion of support change or alter your view of
the “realignment” in any respect?
I’ve always said that we are headed towards a future where these groups are up
for grabs, and whichever party captures them has the advantage. That’s different
from the politics of the Obama era, where we were talking about an emerging
Democratic majority driven by a generational shift and by the rise of non-white
voters in the electorate.
The most recent New York Times poll has Democrats ahead among Latino voters by
16 points, which is certainly different than 2024, when Trump lost them by just
single digits, but that is a far cry from where we were in 2016 and 2018. So I
think in many respects, that version of it is coming true. But if 2024 was a
best-case scenario for the right, and 2026 is a worst-case scenario, we really
have to wait till 2028 to see where this all shakes out.
President Donald Trump’s quest to control Greenland is driving the news — and
this time, it’s not a punchline.
Trump has backed off threats of using force to take the island in favor of what
he calls a framework that will give the U.S. access to the island. And on
Friday, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the situation is still
“serious” adding that the Scandinavian nation has “a path that we are in the
process of trying with the Americans. We have always said that we are of course
willing to make an agreement.”
But whether the deal will work remains vague.
Meanwhile, all of this has resulted in a flood of questions in Washington and
abroad about whether Trump’s threats have been strategy, bluster, or something
in between — and the long-term consequences for America’s standing with allies.
We attempt to answer some of the most asked questions about the issue.
What’s Trump’s interest in Greenland all about?
Trump’s obsession with obtaining Greenland — which for decades has been
controlled by U.S. ally Denmark — is ostensibly about keeping Americans safe.
The president and his advisers increasingly describe Greenland as essential to
ensuring American – and even European – security against encroaching threats
from China and Russia.
Why? Greenland sits astride key Arctic sea lanes that are becoming increasingly
navigable as ice melts. It also hosts Pituffik Space Base, a critical U.S.
military installation for missile warning, space surveillance and Arctic
operations. To Trump, Greenland represents leverage: strategic location,
military value and untapped natural resources.
His interest in the island isn’t new. In 2019, Trump publicly floated buying
Greenland, later describing it as “a large real estate deal.”
At the time, it was mostly dismissed as a pipe dream from a mercurial president.
But six years later, the once frivolous threat has alienated European allies and
become one of the administration’s most important goals.
Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, a global risk assessment firm in
New York, said that Trump having captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by
force has made his assertive “Donroe Doctrine” a “brand” — and emboldened him to
take a more hostile posture toward Greenland and European allies.
“He’s all in on having the brand,” said Bremmer, who is in Davos speaking with
European allies. “Now he needs to populate it and have more ornaments on the
tree. There has to be a next thing for the Donroe Doctrine. And Greenland was
that thing.”
Was Trump serious about invading Greenland?
No.
There is no legal or political pathway for the U.S. to seize Greenland without
violating the sovereignty of NATO allies. Doing so would essentially end the
alliance — not to mention violate international law.
Trump and his aides were never seriously contemplating an invasion but refusing
to rule it out publicly was an effort to increase Trump’s negotiating leverage.
In the process, he incensed European leaders, who responded more forcefully than
they ever had to his pressure, sending troops to Greenland for military
exercises and weighing whether to deploy the European Union’s anti-economic
coercion “bazooka” in response to increased Trump’s threat to impose U.S.
tariffs.
“For his first year, Europe has bit its tongue but worked with Trump to keep him
on side,” said Charles Kupchan, a Europe specialist at the Council on Foreign
Relations. “When the president of the United States is threatening to invade a
NATO ally, it’s time for a different approach.”
The stronger response worked. With global markets starting to plummet over fears
of an escalating crisis, Trump finally made clear in his speech to Davos on
Wednesday that he would not look to acquire Greenland with military force.
But Trump’s new assurances have not fully allayed European anger or ongoing
anxieties about a leader known for changing his mind and who has repeatedly
treated force, coercion and brinkmanship as negotiating tools rather than a last
resort.
Trump’s governing style thrives on maximalist threats followed by selective
walk-backs, leaving allies and adversaries alike unsure which statements are
bluster, which are trial balloons and which could harden into policy.
And so with this president, even ideas he claims are off the table, never fully
are.
What does Greenland — and Europe — think about all of this?
They’re pissed.
Greenland is a semi-autonomous, self-governing territory within Denmark, and its
leaders have repeatedly said the island is not for sale. Local officials have
also bristled at rhetoric that treats Greenland as an object rather than a
society of 56,000 people with their own political aspirations, including
long-term independence.
“We are not in the situation where we are thinking that a takeover of the
country might happen overnight,” Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik
Nielsen, said at a press conference earlier this month. “You cannot compare
Greenland to Venezuela. We are a democratic country.”
At the same time, Greenland’s government welcomes U.S. investment, security
cooperation, and diplomatic engagement — so long as it comes with respect for
Greenlandic autonomy. The Trumpian approach has strained that balance, fueling
local skepticism even as U.S. military and economic ties deepen.
Though Trump has backed off his invasion threats, “the damage was done,” Bremmer
said. “They feel completely disrespected. They feel like Trump treats them with
contempt.”
How’s this playing in America?
The reaction at home has been equally searing. “If there was any sort of action
that looked like the goal was actually landing in Greenland and doing an illegal
taking … there’d be sufficient numbers here to pass a war powers resolution and
withstand a veto,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who recently traveled to
Copenhagen, said last week.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) called Trump’s Greenland quest “the dumbest thing I’ve
ever heard.”
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, only 17 percent of Americans support
the effort to acquire Greenland, while 47 percent disapprove and 35 percent
remain unsure.
Is the “framework” deal going to put an end to the effort to take Greenland?
Trump announced in a vague post this week that he and NATO Secretary General
Mark Rutte had agreed to a “framework of a future Arctic deal” on Greenland,
which he described as giving the U.S. significant access to the island.
But Denmark and Greenland have both strongly rejected any notion that
sovereignty is negotiable or that a concrete transfer of control is underway.
Though details are sparse, Trump said the U.S. got “everything we wanted,”
adding that the deal is “infinite” and will last “forever.” He told reporters
he’ll give more clarity on whether Denmark is on board in two weeks.
How does it affect our European alliances?
It reinforces a core anxiety many European allies already have about Trump: U.S.
security commitments can blur into coercion when they collide with his personal
priorities.
“The European leaders believe it is primarily about ego,” Bremmer said. “When
Trump is acting as an individual and not acting on behalf of the country, you
can see how this is going to create conflict. It’s set up to create mistrust and
conflict and undermine the relationship.”
Even as Trump and his advisers insist his hunger for Greenland aligns with NATO
interests, European leaders have warned that questioning a country’s sovereignty
— even rhetorically — crosses a red line.
In joint statements and public remarks, officials in NATO countries have
stressed that Arctic security cooperation does not confer consent over
territory, pushing back on what they see as a dangerous conflation of alliance
coordination and unilateral pressure.
“The American leadership of the transatlantic community was based on mutual
trust, common values and interests, not on domination and coercion,” Polish
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Friday. “That is why it was accepted by all of
us. Let’s not lose it, dear friends,” adding that is what he conveyed to other
EU leaders on Thursday.
Trump’s Greenland push has only intensified a clear undercurrent of
administration-wide disdain for Europe, articulated over his first year in
office via speeches, social media posts and an official national security
strategy. In the weeks following his renewed Greenland push, Trump has only
further alienated our European allies, claiming NATO has not been in America’s
corner in the past.
“We’ve never needed them,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News on Friday.
“We have never really asked anything of them. You know, they’ll say they sent
some troops to Afghanistan or this or that. And they did. They stayed a little
back, a little off the front lines.”
More than 40 countries following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks deployed
troops to Afghanistan when the U.S. invoked NATO Article 5 for the first time
ever. At peak years, allied forces made up roughly half of all non-Afghan troops
in the country.
More than 1,100 non-U.S. coalition troops were killed in Afghanistan, alongside
many thousands wounded. Canada alone lost 158 soldiers and the U.K. lost 457.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer slammed Trump’s remarks Friday morning.
“I consider President Trump’s remarks to be insulting and frankly appalling,”
Starmer said. “I am not surprised they have caused such hurt to the loved ones
of those who were killed or injured and, in fact, across the country.”