LONDON — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney left Beijing and promptly declared
the U.S.-led “world order” broken. Don’t expect his British counterpart to do
the same.
Keir Starmer will land in the Chinese capital Wednesday for the first visit by a
U.K. prime minister since 2018. By meeting President Xi Jinping, he will end
what he has called an “ice age” under the previous Conservative administration,
and try to win deals that he can sell to voters as a boost to Britain’s
sputtering economy.
Starmer is one of a queue of leaders flocking to the world’s second-largest
economy, including France’s Emmanuel Macron in December and Germany’s Friedrich
Merz next month. Like Carney did in Davos last week, the British PM has warned
the world is the most unstable it has been for a generation.
Yet unlike Carney, Starmer is desperate not to paint this as a rupture from the
U.S. — and to avoid the criticism Trump unleashed on Carney in recent days over
his dealings with China. The U.K. PM is trying to ride three horses at once,
staying friendly — or at least engaging — with Washington D.C., Brussels and
Beijing.
It is his “three-body problem,” joked a senior Westminster figure who has long
worked on British-China relations.
POLITICO spoke to 22 current and former officials, MPs, diplomats, industry
figures and China experts, most of whom were granted anonymity to speak frankly.
They painted a picture of a leader walking the same tightrope he always has
surrounded by grim choices — from tricky post-Brexit negotiations with the EU,
to Donald Trump taking potshots at British policies and freezing talks on a
U.K.-U.S. tech deal.
Starmer wants his (long-planned) visit to China to secure growth, but be
cautious enough not to compromise national security or enrage Trump. He appears
neither to have ramped up engagement with Beijing in response to Trump, nor
reduced it amid criticism of China’s espionage and human rights record.
In short, he doesn’t want any drama.
“Starmer is more managerial. He wants to keep the U.K.’s relationships with big
powers steady,” said one person familiar with planning for the trip. “You can’t
really imagine him doing a Carney or a Macron and using the trip to set out a
big geopolitical vision.”
An official in 10 Downing Street added: “He’s clear that it is in the U.K.’s
interests to have a relationship with the world’s second biggest economy. While
the U.S. is our closest ally, he rejects the suggestion that means you can’t
have pragmatic dealings with China.”
He will be hoping Trump — whose own China visit is planned for April — sees it
that way too.
BRING OUT THE CAVALRY
Starmer has one word in his mind for this trip — growth, which was just 0.1
percent in the three months to September.
The prime minister will be flanked by executives from City giants HSBC, Standard
Chartered, Schroders and the London Stock Exchange Group; pharmaceutical company
AstraZeneca; car manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover; energy provider Octopus; and
Brompton, the folding bicycle manufacturer.
The priority in Downing Street will be bringing back “a sellable headline,” said
the person familiar with trip planning quoted above. The economy is the
overwhelming focus. While officials discussed trying to secure a political win,
such as China lifting sanctions it imposed on British parliamentarians in 2021,
one U.K. official said they now believe this to be unlikely.
Between them, five people familiar with the trip’s planning predicted a large
number of deals, dialogues and memorandums of understanding — but largely in
areas with the fewest national security concerns.
These are likely to include joint work on medical, health and life sciences,
cooperation on climate science, and work to highlight Mandarin language schemes,
the people said.
Officials are also working on the mutual recognition of professional
qualifications and visa-free travel for short stays, while firms have been
pushing for more expansive banking and insurance licences for British companies
operating in China. The U.K. is meanwhile likely to try to persuade Beijing to
lower import tariffs on Scotch whisky, which doubled in February 2025.
A former U.K. official who was involved in Britain’s last prime ministerial
visit to China, by Theresa May in 2018, predicted all deals will already be
“either 100 or 99 percent agreed, in the system, and No. 10 will already have a
firm number in its head that it can announce.”
THREADING THE NEEDLE
Yet all five people agreed there is unlikely to be a deal on heavy energy
infrastructure, including wind turbine technology, that could leave Britain
vulnerable to China. The U.K. has still not decided whether to let Ming Yang, a
Chinese firm, invest £1.5 billion in a wind farm off the coast of Scotland.
And while Carney agreed to ease tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs),
three of the five people familiar with the trip’s planning said that any deep
co-operation on EV technology is likely to be off the table. One of them
predicted: “This won’t be another Canada moment. I don’t see us opening the
floodgates on EVs.”
Britain is trying to stick to “amber and green areas” for any deals, said the
first person familiar with the planning. The second of the five people said: “I
think they‘re going for the soft, slightly lovey stuff.”
Britain has good reason to be reluctant, as Chinese-affiliated groups have long
been accused of hacking and espionage, including against MPs and Britain’s
Electoral Commission. Westminster was gripped by headlines in December about a
collapsed case against two men who had been accused of spying for China. Chinese
firm Huawei was banned from helping build the U.K.’s 5G phone network in 2020
after pressure from Trump.
Even now, Britain’s security agencies are working on mitigations to
telecommunications cables near the Tower of London. They pass close to the
boundary of China’s proposed embassy, which won planning approval last week.
Andrew Small, director of the Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign
Relations, a think tank working on foreign and security policy, said: “The
current debate about how to ‘safely’ increase China’s role in U.K. green energy
supplies — especially through wind power — has serious echoes of 5G all over
again, and is a bigger concern on the U.S. side than the embassy decision.”
Starmer and his team also “don’t want to antagonize the Americans” ahead of
Trump’s own visit in April, said the third of the five people familiar with trip
planning. “They’re on eggshells … if they announce a new dialogue on United
Nations policy or whatever bullshit they can come up with, any of those could be
interpreted as a broadside to the Trump administration.”
All these factors mean Starmer’s path to a “win” is narrow. Tahlia Peterson, a
fellow working on China at Chatham House, the international affairs think tank,
said: “Starmer isn’t going to ‘reset’ the relationship in one visit or unlock
large-scale Chinese investment into Britain’s core infrastructure.”
Small said foreign firms are being squeezed out of the Chinese market and Xi is
“weaponizing” the dependency on Chinese supply chains. He added: “Beijing will
likely offer extremely minor concessions in areas such as financial services,
[amounting to] no more than a rounding error in economic scale.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves knows the pain of this. Britain’s top finance minister
was mocked when she returned with just £600 million of agreements from her visit
to China a year ago. One former Tory minister said the figure was a “deliberate
insult” by China.
Even once the big win is in the bag, there is the danger of it falling apart on
arrival. Carney announced Canada and China would expand visa-free travel, only
for Beijing’s ambassador to Ottawa to say that the move was not yet official.
Despite this, businesses have been keen on Starmer’s re-engagement.
Rain Newton-Smith, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry,
said firms are concerned about the dependence on Chinese rare earths but added:
“If you map supply chains from anywhere, the idea that you can decouple from
China is impossible. It’s about how that trade can be facilitated in the best
way.”
EMBASSY ROW
Even if Starmer gets his wins, this visit will bring controversies that (critics
say) show the asymmetry in Britain’s relationship with China. A tale of two
embassies serves as a good metaphor.
Britain finally approved plans last week for China’s new outpost in London,
despite a long row over national security. China held off formally confirming
Starmer’s visit until the London embassy decision was finalized, the first
person familiar with planning for the trip said. (Others point out Starmer would
not want to go until the issue was resolved.)
The result was a scramble in which executives were only formally invited a week
before take-off.
And Britain has not yet received approval to renovate its own embassy in
Beijing. Officials privately refer to the building as “falling down,” while one
person who has visited said construction materials were piled up against walls.
It is “crumbling,” added another U.K. official: “The walls have got cracks on
them, the wallpaper’s peeling off, it’s got damp patches.”
British officials refused to give any impression of a “quid pro quo” for the two
projects under the U.K.’s semi-judicial planning system. But that means much of
Whitehall still does not know if Britain’s embassy revamp in Beijing will be
approved, or held back until China’s project in London undergoes a further
review in the courts. U.K. officials are privately pressing their Chinese
counterparts to give the green light.
One of the people keenest on a breakthrough will be Britain’s new ambassador to
Beijing Peter Wilson, a career diplomat described by people who have met him as
“outstanding,” “super smart” and “very friendly.”
For Wilson, hosting Starmer will be one of his trickiest jobs yet.
The everyday precautions when doing business in China have made preparations for
this trip more intense. Government officials and corporate executives are
bringing secure devices and will have been briefed on the risk of eavesdropping
and honeytraps.
One member of Theresa May’s 2018 delegation to China recalled opening the door
of what they thought was their vehicle, only to see several people with headsets
on, listening carefully and typing. They compared it to a scene in a spy film.
Activists and MPs will put Starmer under pressure to raise human rights issues —
including what campaigners say is a genocide against the Uyghur people in
Xinjiang province — on a trip governed by strict protocol where one stray word
can derail a deal.
Pro-democracy publisher Jimmy Lai, who has British nationality, is facing
sentencing in Hong Kong imminently for national security offenses. During the
PM’s last meeting with Xi in 2024, Chinese officials bundled British journalists
out of the room when he raised the case. Campaigners had thought Lai’s
sentencing could take place this week.
All these factors mean tension in the British state — which has faced a tussle
between “securocrats” and departments pushing for growth — has been high ahead
of the trip. Government comments on China are workshopped carefully before
publication.
Earlier this month, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told POLITICO her work on
Beijing involves looking at “transnational repression” and “espionage threats.”
But when Chancellor Rachel Reeves met China’s Finance Minister He Lifeng in
Davos last week to tee up Starmer’s visit, the U.K. Treasury did not publicize
the meeting — beyond a little-noticed photo on its Flickr account.
SLOW BOAT TO CHINA
Whatever the controversies, Labour’s China stance has been steadily taking shape
since before Starmer took office in 2024.
Labour drew inspiration from its sister party in Australia and the U.S.
Democrats, both of which had regular meetings with Beijing. Party aides argued
that after a brief “golden era” under Conservative PM David Cameron, Britain
engaged less with China than with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The
result of Labour’s thinking was the policy of “three Cs” — “challenge, compete,
and cooperate.”
A procession of visits to Beijing followed, most notably Reeves last year,
culminating in Starmer’s trip. His National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell was
involved in planning across much of 2025, even travelling to meet China’s top
diplomat, Wang Yi, in November.
Starmer teed up this week’s visit with a December speech arguing the “binary”
view of China had persisted for too long. He promised to engage with Beijing
carefully while taking a “more transactional approach to pretty well
everything.”
The result was that this visit has long been locked in; just as Labour aides
argue the London embassy decision was set in train in 2018, when the Tory
government gave diplomatic consent for the site.
Labour ministers “just want to normalize” the fact of dealing with China, said
the senior Westminster figure quoted above. Newton-Smith added: “I think the
view is that the government’s engagement with eyes wide open is the right
strategy. And under the previous government, we did lose out.”
But for each person who praises the re-engagement, there are others who say it
has left Britain vulnerable while begging for scraps at China’s table. Hawks
argue the hard details behind the “three Cs” were long nebulous, while Labour’s
long-awaited “audit” of U.K.-China relations was delayed before being folded
briefly into a wider security document.
“Every single bad decision now can be traced back to the first six months,”
argued the third person familiar with planning quoted above. “They were
absolutely ill-prepared and made a series of decisions that have boxed them into
a corner.” They added: “The government lacks the killer instinct to deal with
China. It’s not in their DNA.”
Luke de Pulford, a human rights campaigner and director of the
Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, argued the Tories had engaged with China
— Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visited in 2023 — and Labour was simply going
much further.
“China is pursuing an enterprise to reshape the global order in its own image,
and to that end, to change our institutions and way of life to the extent that
they’re an obstacle to it,” he said. “That’s what they’re up to — and we keep
falling for it.”
END OF THE OLD ORDER?
His language may be less dramatic, but Starmer’s visit to China does have some
parallels with Canada. Carney’s trip was the first by a Canadian PM since 2017,
and he and Xi agreed a “new strategic partnership.”
Later at Davos, the Canadian PM talked of “the end of a pleasant fiction” and
warned multilateral institutions such as the United Nations are under threat.
One British industry figure who attended Davos said of Carney’s speech: “It was
great. Everyone was talking about it. Someone said to me that was the best and
most poignant speech they’d ever seen at the World Economic Forum. That may be a
little overblown, but I guess most of the speeches at the WEF are quite dull.”
The language used by Starmer, a former human rights lawyer devoted to
multilateralism, has not been totally dissimilar. Britain could no longer “look
only to international institutions to uphold our values and interests,” he said
in December. “We must do it ourselves through deals and alliances.”
But while some in the U.K. government privately agree with Carney’s point, the
real difference is the two men’s approach to Trump.
Starmer will temper his messaging carefully to avoid upsetting either his
Chinese hosts or the U.S., even as Trump throws semi-regular rocks at Britain.
To Peterson, this is unavoidable. “China, the U.S. and the EU are likely to
continue to dominate global economic growth for the foreseeable future,” she
said. “Starmer’s choice is not whether to engage, but how.”
Esther Webber contributed reporting.
Tag - Genocide
BRUSSELS — A coalition of European left parties has launched a call for
signatures to force the European Commission to suspend the EU’s association
agreement with Israel over Gaza.
Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in October, Israel has kept
attacking targets in the Gaza Strip with airstrikes, drones and tanks, prompting
the pro-Palestinian movement to renew its calls for the EU to take action
against Israel.
The coalition — led by France’s La France Insoumise, Spain’s Podemos, Portugal’s
Bloco de Esquerda, and Nordic left parties — has launched a European Citizens
Initiative titled “Justice for Palestine” calling on the EU executive suspend
ties with Israel over its “genocide against the Palestinian population, and its
ongoing violations of international law and human rights.”
If the initiative receives a million signatures from at least seven EU counties
— a likely outcome given the popularity of the issue — the Commission will be
forced to state which actions, if any, it will take in respond to the
initiative.
“The EU pretends everything is back to normal, but we will not turn a blind eye
to what is happening in Gaza,” said MEP Manon Aubry, the leader of La France
Insoumise, adding the “EU is helping to finance genocide” by not suspending
trade relations with Israel.
More than 100 children have been killed since the ceasefire agreement was signed
in March, UNICEF said Tuesday.
The Commission already proposed in November to suspend some parts of the
association agreement and to sanction some “extremist ministers” in the cabinet
of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But parts of the package were never implemented because they required unanimous
approval from EU countries. After the ceasefire was reached the Commission
proposed withdrawing the measures; the issue has remained frozen ever since.
Foreign ministers from numerous EU countries as well as the U.K., Norway, Canada
and Japan sharply criticized an Israeli decision to bar 37 international
non-governmental organizations from providing aid to Gaza.
The humanitarian situation in the besieged territory remains dire, with many
living outdoors in winter weather. Four people were killed on Tuesday when a
storm caused buildings that had been damaged in the war to collapse, according
to local media.
While U.S. President Donald Trump brashly cited the Monroe Doctrine to explain
the capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, he didn’t leave it there. He
also underscored a crude tenet guiding his foreign adventures: “It’s important
to make me happy,” he told reporters.
Maduro had failed in that task after shunning a surrender order by Trump —
hence, he was plucked in the dead of night by Delta Force commandos from his
Caracas compound, and unceremoniously deposited at New York’s Metropolitan
Detention Center.
Yet despite the U.S. president’s admonishment about needing to be kept happy —
an exhortation accompanied by teasing hints of possible future raids on the
likes of Cuba, Colombia and Mexico — one continent has stood out in its
readiness to defy him.
Maduro’s capture has been widely denounced by African governments and the
continent’s regional organizations alike. South Africa has been among the most
outspoken, with its envoy to the U.N. warning that such actions left unpunished
risk “a regression into a world preceding the United Nations, a world that gave
us two brutal world wars, and an international system prone to severe structural
instability and lawlessness.”
Both the African Union, a continent-wide body comprising 54 recognized nations,
and the 15-member Economic Community of West African States have categorically
condemned Trump’s gunboat diplomacy as well. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni
even had the temerity to issue a blunt dare to Washington: If American forces
attempt the same trick in his country, he bragged, “we can defeat them” — a
reversal of his 2018 bromance with the U.S. president, when he said he “loves
Trump” because of his frankness.
Africa’s forthrightness and unity over Maduro greatly contrasts with the more
fractured response from Latin America, as well as the largely hedged responses
coming from Europe, which is more focused on Trump’s coveting of Greenland.
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni had the temerity to issue a blunt dare to
Washington: If American forces attempt the same trick in his country, he
bragged, “we can defeat them” | Badru Katumba/AFP via Getty Images
Fearful of risking an open rift with Washington, British Prime Minister Keir
Starmer waited 16 hours after Maduro and his wife were seized before gingerly
stepping on a diplomatic tightrope, careful to avoid falling one way or the
other. While highlighting his preference for observing international law, he
said: “We shed no tears about the end of his regime.”
Others similarly avoided incurring Trump’s anger, with Greek Prime Minister
Kyriakos Mitsotakis flatly saying now isn’t the right time to discuss Trump’s
muscular methods — a position shared by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
So, why haven’t African leaders danced to the same circumspect European tune?
Partly because they have less to lose. Europe still harbors hope it can
influence Trump, soften him and avoid an irreparable breach in the transatlantic
alliance, especially when it comes to Greenland, suggested Tighisti Amare of
Britain’s Chatham House.
“With dramatic cuts in U.S. development funds to Africa already implemented by
Trump, Washington’s leverage is not as strong as it once was. And the U.S.
doesn’t really give much importance to Africa, unless it’s the [Democratic
Republic of the Congo], where there are clear U.S. interests on critical
minerals,” Amare told POLITICO.
“In terms of trade volume, the EU remains the most important region for Africa,
followed by China, and with the Gulf States increasingly becoming more
important,” she added.
Certainly, Trump hasn’t gone out of his way to make friends in Africa. Quite the
reverse — he’s used the continent as a punching bag, delivering controversial
remarks stretching back to his first term, when he described African nations as
“shithole countries.” And there have since been rifts galore over travel bans,
steep tariffs and the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International
Development, which is credited with saving millions of African lives over
decades.
U.S. President Donald Trump holds up a printed article from “American Thinker”
while accusing South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa of state-sanctioned
violence against white farmers in South Africa. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
In May, Trump also lectured South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval
Office over what he claimed amounted to genocide against white South Africans,
at one point ordering the lights be dimmed to show clips of leaders from a South
African minority party encouraging attacks on the country’s white population.
Washington then boycotted the G20 summit hosted by South Africa in November, and
disinvited the country from this year’s gathering, which will be hosted by the
U.S.
According to Amare, Africa’s denunciation of Maduro’s abduction doesn’t just
display concern about Venezuela; in some part, it’s also fed by the memory of
colonialism. “It’s not just about solidarity, but it’s also about safeguarding
the rules that limit how powerful states can use force against more vulnerable
states,” she said. African countries see Trump’s move against Maduro “as a
genuine threat to international law and norms that protect the survival of the
sovereignty of small states.”
Indeed, African leaders might also be feeling their own collars tighten, and
worrying about being in the firing line. “There’s an element of
self-preservation kicking in here because some African leaders share
similarities with the Maduro government,” said Oge Onubogu, director of the
Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “In some
countries, people on the street and in even civil society have a different take,
and actually see the removal of Maduro as a good thing.”
The question is, will African leaders be wary of aligning with either Russian
President Vladimir Putin or China’s Xi Jinping, now that Trump has exposed the
impotence of friendship with either by deposing the Venezuelan strongman?
According to Onubogu, even before Maduro’s ouster, African leaders understood
the world order had changed dramatically, and that we’re back in the era of
great power competition.
“Individual leaders will make their own specific calculations based on what’s in
their favor and their interests. I wouldn’t want to generalize and say some
African countries might step back from engaging with China or Russia. They will
play the game as they try to figure out how they can come out on top.”
Mathias Döpfner is chair and CEO of Axel Springer, POLITICO’s parent company.
America and Europe have been transmitting on different wavelengths for some time
now. And that is dangerous — especially for Europe.
The European reactions to the new U.S. National Security Strategy paper and to
Donald Trump’s recent criticism of the Old Continent were, once again,
reflexively offended and incapable of accepting criticism: How dare he, what an
improper intrusion!
But such reactions do not help; they do harm. Two points are lost in these sour
responses.
First: Most Americans criticize Europe because the continent matters to them.
Many of those challenging Europe — even JD Vance or Trump, even Elon Musk or Sam
Altman — emphasize this repeatedly. The new U.S. National Security Strategy,
scandalized above all by those who have not read it, states explicitly: “Our
goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a
strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to
prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.” And Trump says repeatedly,
literally or in essence, in his interview with POLITICO: “I want to see a strong
Europe.”
The transatlantic drift is also a rupture of political language. Trump very
often simply says what he thinks — sharply contrasting with many European
politicians who are increasingly afraid to say what they believe is right.
People sense the castration of thought through a language of evasions. And they
turn away. Or toward the rabble-rousers.
My impression is that our difficult American friends genuinely want exactly what
they say they want: a strong Europe, a reliable and effective partner. But we do
not hear it — or refuse to hear it. We hear only the criticism and dismiss it.
Criticism is almost always a sign of involvement, of passion. We should worry
far more if no criticism arrived. That would signal indifference — and therefore
irrelevance. (By the way: Whether we like the critics is of secondary
importance.)
Responding with hauteur is simply not in our interest. It would be wiser — as
Kaja Kallas rightly emphasized — to conduct a dialogue that includes
self-criticism, a conversation about strengths, weaknesses and shared interests,
and to back words with action on both sides.
Which brings us to the second point: Unfortunately, much of the criticism is
accurate. Anyone who sees politics as more than a self-absorbed administration
of the status quo must concede that for decades Europe has delivered far too
little — or nothing at all. Not in terms of above-average growth and prosperity,
nor in terms of affordable energy. Europe does not deliver on deregulation or
debureaucratization; it does not deliver on digitalization or innovation driven
by artificial intelligence. And above all: Europe does not deliver on a
responsible and successful migration policy.
The world that wishes Europe well looked to the new German government with great
hope. Capital flows on the scale of trillions waited for the first positive
signals to invest in Germany and Europe. For it seemed almost certain that the
world’s third-largest economy would, under a sensible, business-minded and
transatlantic chancellor, finally steer a faltering Europe back onto the right
path. The disappointment was all the more painful. Aside from the interior
minister, the digital minister and the economics minister, the new government
delivers in most areas the opposite of what had been promised before the
election. The chancellor likes to blame the vice chancellor. The vice chancellor
blames his own party. And all together they prefer to blame the Americans and
their president.
Instead of a European fresh start, we see continued agony and decline. Germany
still suffers from its National Socialist trauma and believes that if it remains
pleasantly average and certainly not excellent, everyone will love it. France is
now paying the price for its colonial legacy in Africa and finds itself — all
the way up to a president driven by political opportunism — in the chokehold of
Islamist and antisemitic networks.
In Britain, the prime minister is pursuing a similar course of cultural and
economic submission. And Spain is governed by socialist fantasists who seem to
take real pleasure in self-enfeeblement and whose “genocide in Gaza” rhetoric
mainly mobilizes bored, well-heeled daughters of the upper middle class.
Hope comes from Finland and Denmark, from the Baltic states and Poland, and —
surprisingly — from Italy. There, the anti-democratic threats from Russia, China
and Iran are assessed more realistically. Above all, there is a healthy drive to
be better and more successful than others. From a far weaker starting point,
there is an ambition for excellence.
What Europe needs is less wounded pride and more patriotism defined by
achievement. Unity and decisive action in defending Ukraine would be an obvious
example — not merely talking about European sovereignty but demonstrating it,
even in friendly dissent with the Americans. (And who knows, that might
ultimately prompt a surprising shift in Washington’s Russia policy.) That,
coupled with economic growth through real and far-reaching reforms, would be a
start. After which Europe must tackle the most important task: a fundamental
reversal of a migration policy rooted in cultural self-hatred that tolerates far
too many newcomers who want a different society, who hold different values, and
who do not respect our legal order.
If all of this fails, American criticism will be vindicated by history. The
excuses for why a European renewal is supposedly impossible or unnecessary are
merely signs of weak leadership. The converse is also true: where there is
political will, there is a way.
And this way begins in Europe — with the spirit of renewal of a well-understood
“Europe First” (what else?) — and leads to America. Europe needs America.
America needs Europe. And perhaps both needed the deep crisis in the
transatlantic relationship to recognize this with full clarity. As surprising as
it may sound, at this very moment there is a real opportunity for a renaissance
of a transatlantic community of shared interests. Precisely because the
situation is so deadlocked. And precisely because pressure is rising on both
sides of the Atlantic to do things differently.
A trade war between Europe and America strengthens our shared adversaries. The
opposite would be sensible: a New Deal between the EU and the U.S. Tariff-free
trade as a stimulus for growth in the world’s largest and third-largest
economies — and as the foundation for a shared policy of interests and,
inevitably, a joint security policy of the free world.
This is the historic opportunity that Friedrich Merz could now negotiate with
Donald Trump. As Churchill said: “Never waste a good crisis!”
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Thursday rejected allegations linking him
to so-called sniper safaris during the siege of Sarajevo in the 1990s, calling
the claims “lies” aimed at portraying him as a “monster” and “cold-blooded
killer.”
“I have never killed anyone, never wounded anyone, nor done anything of the
sort,” Vučić told reporters on the sidelines of the U.K.-Western Balkans
regional business conference in Belgrade.
Croatian investigative journalist Domagoj Margetić said Tuesday he had filed a
formal complaint with prosecutors in Milan, alleging Vučić either took part in
or helped facilitate “sniper tourism,” in which foreigners allegedly paid
Bosnian Serb forces to be able to shoot civilians from positions overlooking the
besieged city.
In his letter to prosecutors, Margetić cites a 1993 video and purported wartime
interviews, along with testimony from Bosnian officials as evidence that Vučić
was a “war volunteer” in Sarajevo in 1992 and 1993, and a member of the New
Sarajevo Chetnik Detachment of the Army of Republika Srpska (VRS). He further
alleges that Vučić spent several months stationed at a frontline position at
Sarajevo’s Jewish cemetery.
Responding to the allegations about the 1993 footage, which allegedly shows him
holding a sniper rifle alongside other armed men at the cemetery, Vučić
insisted: “I have never in my life held a sniper rifle. I didn’t even have the
rifle you’re talking about, because that is a camera tripod.”
Margetić’s accusations came as prosecutors in Milan opened an inquiry last week
into alleged Italian nationals who may have taken part in the so-called sniper
safaris, investigating potential charges of aggravated murder.
Investigators are looking into claims that foreign visitors allegedly paid
Bosnian Serb troops of the Army of Republika Srpska (VRS) — operating under the
command of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadžić, who was convicted of
genocide in 2016 — to transport them to hillside positions around Sarajevo,
where they could fire at civilians for sport.
More than 10,000 people were killed in Sarajevo between 1992 and 1996, many by
relentless shelling and sniper fire, during what became the longest siege in
modern European history, following Bosnia and Herzegovina’s declaration of
independence from Yugoslavia. The siege saw Bosnian government forces defending
the city against Bosnian Serb troops who encircled Sarajevo from the surrounding
hills.
The Italian probe, triggered by a complaint from independent journalist and
writer Ezio Gavazzeni, aims to determine whether the long-rumored “human
safaris” occurred and who may have enabled or participated in them.
“We’re talking about wealthy people, with a reputation, entrepreneurs, who
during the siege of Sarajevo paid to be able to kill defenseless civilians,”
Gavazzeni told La Repubblica.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday signaled his intent to focus on an ongoing
humanitarian crisis in Sudan, a priority for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin
Salman, whom the president met with in Washington this week.
Sudan has been racked by a 2 1/2–year-long civil war pitting the Sudanese Armed
Forces against the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, which international
institutions have accused the United Arab Emirates of backing. It’s plunged tens
of millions into a humanitarian crisis..
“Food, doctors, and everything else are desperately needed,” Trump wrote on
Truth Social. “Arab Leaders from all over the World, in particular the highly
respected Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who has just left the United States,
have asked me to use the power and influence of the Presidency to bring an
immediate halt to what is taking place in Sudan.”
In meetings since his Tuesday arrival in Washington, the Saudi crown prince has
communicated to Trump his desire for increased American involvement in managing
the crisis. Saudi Arabia would like to see the U.S. do more to urge the UAE to
stop backing the Rapid Support Forces, an Arab official told POLITICO, to
discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.
Prior to leaving office, former President Joe Biden accused the RSF of
committing genocide in Sudan.
The president mentioned the Saudi government’s interest in the issue in a speech
Wednesday at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum, telling the audience that “his
majesty would like me to do something very powerful having to do with Sudan.”
“It was not on my charts to be involved in that,” he said. “I thought it was
just something that was crazy and out of control. But I just see how important
that is to you and to a lot of your friends in the room.”
Trump’s overture could draw the ire of several key Republicans, including Rep.
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Steve Bannon, who argue the president needs
to focus less on foreign policy and more on domestic issues, including
affordability, in light of GOP losses in a series of off-cycle elections this
month.
In the weeks since, he’s hosted Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House
and elevated Saudi Arabia to the status of “major non-NATO ally,” deepening
defense cooperation with Riyadh.
Felicia Schwartz contributed to this report.
DUBLIN — Ireland has a new left-wing president who has been sharply critical of
Israel — and Catherine Connolly wants to push the limits of what is supposed to
be a ceremonial head of state.
At her inauguration ceremony at Dublin Castle, Connolly told an audience of
government leaders past and present that her victory in the Oct. 24 election
demonstrated Ireland wants a new political direction — one at odds, in many
respects, with the country’s center-right government. She pledged to provide
that counterweight in her coming seven-year term, using a position that can
wield soft power on the world stage.
“The president should be a unifying president — a steady hand, yes, but also a
catalyst for change, reflecting our desire for a republic that lives up to its
name,” Connolly told a ceremony featuring harpists and Uilleann pipers, military
bands and a 21-cannon salute, as well as prayers from the leaders of every
religious denomination.
Connolly didn’t explicitly mention Israel or Gaza in what was, nonetheless, an
unexpectedly political speech that twice called out the evils of “genocide” —
barely disguised code for the independent socialist’s previous denunciations of
Israel. The International Court of Justice is currently considering allegations
of genocide against Israel over its conduct in Gaza, allegations adamantly
rejected by that state.
Overall, Connolly’s painstakingly scripted inaugural address sought to pose an
immediate first test of the boundaries of an office that has no role in
day-to-day government and is supposed to be above politics.
‘DIPLOMATIC SOLUTIONS’
Connolly delivered her remarks sitting beside Prime Minister Micheál Martin and
Foreign Minister Simon Harris, who hold the real reins of power as the leaders
of Ireland’s perennial middle-ground parties of government, Fianna Fáil and Fine
Gael.
She noted that her inauguration coincided with the 107th anniversary of the
ending of the First World War. Ireland fought in that war as part of the U.K.
but won de facto independence from Britain in 1922, remained neutral in World
War II, has kept out of NATO, and maintains only a minuscule military focused on
United Nations-approved missions. The country today hosts more than 80,000
Ukrainian refugees from Russia’s invasion, higher than the EU average, but
supplies only non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
Connolly described a modern Ireland committed to pacifism shaped by its
devastating famine in the mid-19th century and its 1919-21 War of Independence
from Britain.
“Given our history, the normalization of war and genocide has never been and
will never be acceptable to us,” she said, describing Ireland as “particularly
well placed to lead and articulate alternative diplomatic solutions to conflict
and war.”
“Indeed our experience of colonization and resistance, of a catastrophic
man-made famine and forced emigration, gives us a lived understanding of
dispossession, hunger and war, and a mandate for Ireland to lead,” she said.
Connolly offered other veiled criticisms of a coalition government that, since
taking office earlier this year following a hard-fought 2024 election, has
struggled to address a housing crisis, the country’s top political issue. Martin
and Harris also have stepped back from climate-change commitments made during
their previous, more left-leaning government in alliance with the Green Party.
Connolly — whose candidacy was backed by the Greens and several other opposition
parties of the left — said she had won “a powerful mandate” to promote the idea
of an Ireland “where everyone is valued and diversity is cherished, where
sustainable solutions are urgently implemented, and where a home is a
fundamental human right.”
Against expectations, Connolly delivered most of her nationally televised speech
in English, not in Ireland’s comparatively little-used mother tongue of Irish.
She had made her fluency in Ireland’s official first language a significant
selling point in her presidential campaign.
Mary McAuliffe, a University College Dublin historian, explained why.
“A huge majority of people wouldn’t understand a whole speech in Irish,”
McAuliffe said, “including I must say, myself.”
LONDON — Former U.K. Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn hosted a phone bank
Sunday evening for Zohran Mamdani — and swiftly triggered a backlash from the
Democratic New York mayoral contender’s political opponents.
With New Yorkers heading to the polls Tuesday to choose the successor to
incumbent Eric Adams, the left-wing British MP announced in a social media post
that he was hitting the phones on behalf of the New York City Democratic
Socialists of America campaign group to Get Out The Vote for Mamdani.
“Let’s get Zohran over the finish line for a New York that’s affordable for
all,” Corbyn — a fellow Arsenal Football Club fan — said as he posed with a
North London 4 Zohran shirt.
However, the intervention was criticized by Mamdani’s main opponent, the
independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, who attacked Corbyn’s controversial tenure
as Labour leader.
After defying the odds to deprive former Conservative prime minister Theresa May
of a majority in 2017, Corbyn took Labour to a calamitous defeat in the 2019
election. His stint at the top of Labour drew frequent criticism of the way the
party dealt with allegations of anti-semitism in its own ranks, with Britain’s
human rights watchdog finding that Labour under his leadership was “responsible
for unlawful acts of harassment and discrimination.”
Corbyn was booted from Labour by its current leader Keir Starmer over his
response to that report, and now sits as an independent.
“Having Jeremy Corbyn — someone whose party was found to have committed unlawful
acts of discrimination against Jewish people under his leadership —
phone-banking for Zohran Mamdani says everything you need to know,” Cuomo posted
on X.
U.S. Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon also highlighted Corbyn’s post,
appending the message: “Foreign interference in a U.S. election?” There was
strong criticism from Republicans when Labour Party activists campaigned for
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.
Corbyn is not the only European left-winger looking to help with — and learn
from — Mamdani’s campaign. French co-Chair of The Left group in the European
Parliament Manon Aubry visited New York last week to canvass alongside Mamdani
supporters.
BRUSSELS — It’s not a view that many Brussels officials would dare to offer in
public, but the European commissioner for crisis management is clear: Benjamin
Netanyahu is not a convincing leader to deliver peace in the Middle East.
In an interview with POLITICO, Hadja Lahbib set out her “doubts” about the
Israeli prime minister, called for continued pressure on Israel, and warned that
the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza is far from over.
The biggest risk to a lasting peace, she said, is “extremists on both sides.”
There’s Hamas, the perpetrators of the Oct. 7, 2023 atrocity in Israel in which
1,200 people were killed. And on the Israeli side there are “extremists who
don’t want to hear about the two-state solution,” she said, referring to the
prime minister and members of his Cabinet. “We hear a lot of things that are
unacceptable sometimes in the mouth of a responsible person who [is] in the lead
of their country.”
Does she think Netanyahu wants peace? “To ask the question is to give an
answer,” said Lahbib, who is Belgium’s EU commissioner. “I have some doubts. So
far he was able to implement the ceasefire so let’s see what’s going to happen.
But we all know that he was against the two-state solution … we used to say in
French that ‘only idiots don’t change their minds.’”
The commissioner said she wasn’t calling the Israeli leader “an idiot,” but
she’s clearly not a fan.
Asked if Israel would need to elect a new leadership that is ready to embrace
the two-state solution, with a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure
Israel, she replied: “That’s a very good question and these are the next steps,
the crucial ones.” First must come a ceasefire, then urgently needed aid, “and
then a future, give a horizon of hope for these people that are living now in a
sea of rubble.”
It’s unusual for politicians to discuss the electoral politics of other
countries. Israel is due to hold elections for its 120-member Knesset in October
2026, though some expect the vote to come sooner as Netanyahu no longer has a
majority after his coalition partners walked out.
Netanyahu is known as the great survivor of Israeli politics and has vowed to
stand for election again.
TRUMP’S TRUCE
It’s been two weeks since the Trump-inspired ceasefire took effect, with Hamas
returning Israel’s living hostages and Israeli forces pulling back. There have
been attacks, and deaths, and tensions remain high. Overall, however, the truce
has held.
For the European Union — the biggest overall aid donor to the Palestinians
(Brussels has sent more than €500 million since Oct. 7, 2023) — a political
question abides: Can it repair relations with Israel sufficiently to play a role
in shaping the future of the Middle East?
Lahbib is responsible for the bloc’s vast central humanitarian aid budget and
holds a key position in the EU’s response to the conflict. Soon, if the truce
continues, attention will turn to the future political and physical
reconstruction of Gaza.
International allies agree Hamas cannot continue to run the administration of
Gaza.
It’s been two weeks since the Trump-inspired ceasefire took effect, with Hamas
returning Israel’s living hostages and Israeli forces pulling back. | Hassan
Jedi/Getty Images
Lahbib suggested Palestinians might need their own Nelson Mandela figure, a
reference to Marwan Barghouti, a leading name in the Fatah party who has been in
an Israeli jail since 2002. He has topped polls as the choice of Palestinians
for a potential president.
“Maybe [Barghouti] might be someone who still has credibility and legitimacy for
the Palestinian people,” she said. “And if [he’s] the new, let’s say, Nelson
Mandela, who’s released and who’s capable to have on one side the trust of his
people and to lead the region, his own people, to peace, that will be
fantastic.”
SANCTIONING ISRAEL
Israel’s new ambassador to the EU has said it’s time for Brussels to drop its
threats — to apply sanctions and suspend parts of the EU-Israel association
agreement — and instead to restore the cooperation funds that have been halted.
Lahbib rejects this.
“On the contrary,” Lahbib said. “The past two years show us that we need to have
leverage.” America made progress on peace precisely because it has leverage, she
said. “Sometimes we have to push our own friends.”
Asked whether she believes Israel has committed genocide in Gaza, Lahbib said
“only a court can say.” She did, though, point to an independent U.N.
investigation that found there “is or was a genocide committed,” and referenced
the harrowing scenes recounted by aid workers.
“What happened there is inhuman and we need to recover our humanity,” she said.
The EU wants to be a “player” rather than just a “payer” in the reconstruction
of Gaza. But the political situation in Israel means that giving the EU a role
on Trump’s so-called board of peace is a complicated decision, she said. “The
coalition is fragile and it’s difficult for them to take a decision that leads
to peace, a sustainable peace.”
Trump and his top team are clearly committed to maintaining the ceasefire, and
the U.S. president’s plan is “the end of a nightmare — we have to acknowledge
the progress,” Lahbib said.
“But this is not the end of the war. For that we need to work on the
implementation of the two-state solution. The situation is very fluid and
fragile.”
The United States on Friday sanctioned Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the
latest escalation of tensions between Washington and Bogotá over drug
trafficking and other issues of bilateral importance.
In a press release, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the left-wing leader
“has allowed drug cartels to flourish and refused to stop this activity.” The
sanctions target Petro and his associates — chiefly his wife, son and several
leading Colombian officials.
Bessent added that the Trump administration’s actions are intended to “protect
our nation and make clear that we will not tolerate the trafficking of drugs
into our nation.”
Reacting to the sanctions on social media, Petro said “fighting against drug
trafficking for decades with efficiency has brought these measures against me by
the government of the country which we help to stop its consumption of cocaine.
All a paradox, but no steps back and never on our knees.”
It’s highly unusual for the U.S. to sanction the sitting leader of a country,
let alone a longtime ally like Colombia. But the imposition of sanctions
reflects the continued tensions between Petro and the administration, as the
Colombian leader has criticized the U.S. military buildup in the Western
Hemisphere in the name of combating drug cartels. Petro also
previously criticized the U.S. for supporting what he alleged was an Israeli
genocide in Gaza, and called on U.S. officials to face charges for a recent
spate of strikes against alleged drug trafficking vessels that he claims killed
innocent Colombian fishermen.
The administration has made no secret of its frustrations with Colombia’s
leader. Earlier this week, Trump cut off U.S. aid to Colombia after Petro
attacked the administration’s drug boat strikes. And in September, the U.S.
revoked Petro’s visa, citing comments he made at a pro-Palestine protest on the
sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly where he called on U.S. service
members to resist Israeli actions in Gaza.
Colombia was also recently restored to a U.S. list of countries seen as major
hubs of narcotics trafficking. The country’s coca fields have expanded
continuously since Petro took power, even as Colombia has pushed back on claims
that it has turned a blind eye to a resurgent cocaine industry within its
borders. Colombian officials have pointed to the continued interdiction of
cocaine.
Petro, who as a young man joined a Marxist guerrilla group that fought against
the Colombian state during the South American country’s ongoing decades-long
armed conflict, has advocated for reaching “total peace” with militant groups
that continue to fight against the Colombian state. He’s also downplayed the
need for eradicating coca fields and blamed Western elites for driving demand
for cocaine, severing cooperation with longtime allies, including the United
States.
Petro’s son, Nicolás Petro, has been accused of funneling drug cartel funds into
his father’s electoral campaign. But there is no evidence that the Colombian
president himself is involved with or directly supportive of the cartels the
U.S. links him to.
The decision was applauded by some of Petro’s Republican critics in Congress,
many of whom represent large Colombian American communities and have bashed the
leader.
“GREAT MOVE, Petro is a problem for Colombia and our hemisphere!” posted Rep.
Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Western
Hemisphere Subcommittee. Salazar also called Petro a “socialist dictator” in her
post on X.