LONDON — Keir Starmer’s keeping Britain out of the war in Iran — but he can’t duck the conflict’s grave economic consequences. In a sign of growing fears about the impact of the war on Britain, the prime minister chaired a rare meeting of the government’s emergency COBRA committee Monday night, joined by senior ministers and Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Starmer’s top finance minister, Rachel Reeves, will update the House of Commons on the economic picture Tuesday, as an already-unpopular administration worries that chaos in the Middle East is shredding plans to lower the cost of living and get the British economy growing. For Starmer’s government — headed for potentially brutal local elections in May — the crisis in the Gulf risks a nightmare combination of a rise in energy prices, interest rates, inflation and the cost of government borrowing that threatens to undermine everything he’s done since winning office. Economists are now warning that even if Donald Trump’s promise of a “complete and total resolution of hostilities” with Iran were to bear fruit, the effects on the British economy could still last for months. Already there are signs of a split within Starmer’s party over how to respond. Labour MPs want the government to think seriously about action to protect households — but Starmer and Reeves have long talked up the need for fiscal responsibility, and economics are warning that there’s little room for maneuver. Fuel prices displayed at a Shell garage in Southam, Warwickshire on March 23, 2026. | Jacob King/PA Images via Getty Images Jim O’Neill, a former Treasury minister who served as an adviser to Reeves, told POLITICO the government should “not get sucked into reacting to every external shock” and “concentrate on boosting our underlying growth trend.” WHY THE UK IS SO HARD HIT Just before the outbreak of war, there was reason for Starmer and Reeves to feel quietly optimistic about the long-stagnant British economy. The Bank of England had expected inflation to fall back sustainably toward its two percent target for the first time in five years, giving the central bank the space to carry on cutting interest rates.  With the Iran war in full flow, it was forced to rewrite those forecasts at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting last week — and now sees inflation at around 3.5 percent by the summer. The U.K. is a big net importer of energy and also needs constant imports of foreign capital to fund its budget and current account deficits. That’s made it one of first targets in the financial markets’ crosshairs. The government’s cost of borrowing has risen by more than half a percentage point over the last month. That threatens both the real economy and Reeves’ painstakingly-negotiated budget arithmetic. Higher inflation means higher interest rates and a higher bill for servicing the government’s debt: fiscal watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a one-point increase in inflation would add £7.3 billion to debt servicing costs in 2026-2027 alone. The effect on businesses and home owners is also likely to be chilling. Britain’s banks are already repricing their most popular mortgages, which are tied to the two-year gilt rate. Hundreds of mortgage products were pulled in a hurry after the MPC meeting last week, something that will hit the housing market and depress Reeves’ intake from both stamp duty and capital gains. Duncan Weldon, an economist and author, said: “Even if this were to stop tomorrow, the inflation numbers and growth numbers are going to look materially worse throughout 2026. “If this continues for longer… it’s an awful lot more challenging and you end up with a much tougher budget this autumn than the government would have been hoping to unveil.” DECISION TIME The U.K.’s economic plight presents an acute political headache for Starmer, as he faces a mismatch between his own party’s expectations about the government’s ability to help people and his own scarce resources. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has promised to keep looking at different options for some form of assistance to bill-payers hit by an energy price shock. A pain point is looming in July, when a regulated cap on energy costs is due to expire and bills could jump significantly. One left-leaning Labour MP, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said: “They [ministers] need to be treating this like a financial crisis. They need plans for multiple scenarios with clear triggers for government support.” A second MP from the 2024 intake said “it’s right that a Labour government steps in, particularly to help the most vulnerable.” Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves at the first cabinet meeting of the new year at No. 10 Downing St. on Jan. 6, 2026 in London, England. | Pool photo by Richard Pohle via Getty Images This demand for action is being felt in the upper echelons of the party too, as Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy recently argued Reeves’ fiscal rules — seen as crucial in the Treasury to reassure the markets — may need to be reconsidered if prices continue to rise and a major support package is needed.  One Labour official said there are clear disagreements with Labour over how to go about drawing up help and warned “the fiscal approach is going to be a massive dividing line at any leadership election.” The same official pointed to recent comments by former Starmer deputy — and likely leadership contender — Angela Rayner about the OBR, with Rayner accusing the watchdog of ignoring the “social benefit” of government spending. Despite the pressure, ministers have so far restricted themselves to criticizing petrol retailers for alleged profiteering, and have been flirting with new powers for markets watchdog the Competition and Markets Authority. The government said Reeves would on Tuesday set out steps to “help protect working people from unfair price rises,” including a new “anti-profiteering framework” to “root out price gouging.” But Starmer signaled strongly in an appearance before a Commons committee Monday evening that he was not about to unveil any wide-ranging bailout package, telling MPs he was “acutely aware” of what it had cost when then-Prime Minister Liz Truss launched her own universal energy price guarantee in 2022.  O’Neill backed this approach, saying: “I don’t think they should do much… They can’t afford it anyhow. The nation can’t keep shielding people from external shocks.” Weldon predicted, however, that as the May elections approach and the energy cap deadline draws nearer, the pressure will prove too much and ministers could be forced to step in. The furlough scheme rolled out during the pandemic to project jobs and Truss’s 2022 intervention helped create “the expectation that the government should be helping households,” he said. “But it’s incredibly difficult. Britain’s growth has been blown off-course an awful lot in the last 15 years by these sorts of shocks.” Geoffrey Smith, Dan Bloom, Andrew McDonald and Sam Francis contributed to this report.

PARIS — Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire is on course to become Paris’ next mayor, extending his party’s quarter-century rule of the French capital, according to multiple projections from pollsters. The left-wing candidate is on track to win 53.1  percent of votes in Sunday’s mayoral election runoff, per Ipsos’ initial estimate based on a partial vote count. His conservative adversary Rachida Dati is projected to come in second with 38 percent, while the hard-left candidate Sophia Chikirou is expected to come in third with 8.9 percent.  His supporters in Paris were are celebrating, singing “Emmanuel” and“On a gagné” (we won). After making a speech, he is expected to cycle to Paris city hall. Grégoire finished the first round 12 points clear of Dati, but the runoff was expected to be a tougher challenge after other right-wing candidates coalesced behind Dati’s campaign. Two candidates who qualified for the second round, the center-right former lawmaker Pierre-Yves Bournazel and far-right MEP Sarah Knafo, both left the race to avoid splitting the vote. Grégoire, however, chose not to team up with Chikirou on principle due to her party’s abrasive, confrontational approach to the local election. During the campaign, Grégoire, a protégé-turned-enemy of outgoing Mayor Anne Hidalgo, focused his message on solving the housing shortage and bringing down the cost of living. The 48-year-old had worked in Hidalgo’s administration for a decade in various top roles, including as her main deputy from 2018 until 2024, when he won a seat in the National Assembly. But Grégoire and Hidalgo’s messy falling out forced the candidate to distance himself from his former boss. That meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.  The campaign got particularly heated ahead of the runoff, as he and Dati attacked each other with vitriol. Grégoire also accused President Emmanuel Macron of directly interfering to boost Dati, his former culture minister. Macron strongly rejected the assertion. 

LONDON — Britain’s Labour Party is paying a communications agency to find influencers who can promote struggling Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s cost-of-living message. The governing party has tapped up digital communications agency 411 to reach out to influencers, with the comms shop asking them to be part of a campaign “sharing the steps that this Labour Government is taking to ease the cost of living,” according to a message to influencers seen by POLITICO. The creators are hand-picked “micro-influencers” with less than 20,000 followers, which 411 believes have a more engaged and targeted audience, according to a person working on the strategy but not authorized to speak publicly about it. The influencers do not get paid by Labour or 411, with the same person describing the outreach as akin to a targeted press release. The quest for new messengers comes as Starmer’s government tries to convince Brits it can reduce costs and fights to turn around dire poll ratings. At the beginning of the year, Starmer announced that cutting the cost of living was his “number one priority.”  His government has, however, repeatedly struggled with its communications, with tanking poll ratings partially blamed by his own MPs on a failure to tell the story of his administration. Starmer’s Downing Street has cycled through multiple communications chiefs since taking office in July 2024. Mark McVitie, who works on social media strategy as director of the Labour Growth Group — though is not involved with the influencer outreach — described the latest move as “tactically fine and what a government should be doing in 2026.” But he warned it is “insufficient to the level of the challenge facing this particular government.” The Labour Party did not respond to a request for comment. The move is the latest by the British government to tap into the world of influencers as it tries to push its message. At the end of February, Starmer hosted a press conference solely for content creators, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves booked out seats at a pre-budget press conference for hand-picked online finance influencers. Starmer has started posting podcast-style videos in recent weeks in a bid to more directly connect with voters. A Labour MP, discussing the bid to reach influencers and granted anonymity to speak freely, said they were “delighted to discover we have a comms strategy of any kind.”

CHÂLONS-EN-CHAMPAGNE, France — In rural Champagne, the National Rally is finding the momentum and enthusiasm it needs to believe that it can win the French presidency in 2027. The first round of local elections on Sunday delivered mixed results for the far-right party, highlighting how a decisive breakthrough still eludes Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and their allies in France’s biggest cities. Despite strong performances in key southern cities like Marseille and Toulon, where the National Rally scored 35 percent and 42 percent of the vote respectively, the runoff this Sunday likely won’t be an emphatic victory given how other movements have teamed up against the National Rally. But the party’s leadership is relishing its growing popularity in Champagne and other areas of France’s heartland where the moderate right formerly prevailed. The National Rally candidate in the famed Champagne capital of Epernay garnered 31 percent of the vote, doubling the party’s score from the previous local elections in 2020 partly thanks to higher turnout. And in the bucolic town of Châlons-en-Champagne, 45 kilometers from the region’s largest city, Reims, the far-right candidate came just a few hundred votes short of the first-place finisher, incumbent Mayor Benoist Apparu, a minister under former President Nicolas Sarkozy. The dream is that combining growing rural support with the surging number of far-right voters in the French sunbelt in addition to the National Rally’s northern strongholds will be enough to deliver the poll-topping party their big prize in the 2027 presidential election. In rural Champagne country, the National Rally is finding the momentum and enthusiasm it needs to believe that it can win the French presidency in 2027. | Marion Solletty/POLITICO “It is through these [local] roots that we will rebuild France, town by town,” Le Pen said at a rally Wednesday on the outskirts of Châlons-en-Champagne. “The great victory we are preparing for next year will not be handed to us, it will be conquered.” Speaking to a crowd of about 2,000 people in a mid-sized convention center, Le Pen and other National Rally heavyweights framed the upcoming runoffs as another example of President Emmanuel Macron and his allies trying to “ignore, if not shut down people’s voice.” Many of the cross-party alliances that emerged after the first round of the contest look poised to again block the party from winning control of major cities in the runoffs this Sunday. Lawmaker Laurent Jacobelli elicited cheers in the crowd when he slammed those strategic partnerships as a “ménage à trois between Macronism, Socialism and the fake right” on stage. Ahead of the rally, a small gathering in the city’s historic center on Wednesday gathered around 300 people protesting the National Rally’s presence, but they were stopped by police before they could reach the rally’s venue. UNITE THE RIGHT In Reims, the National Rally landed a symbolic win this week when its candidate, Anne-Sophie Frigout, merged with a center-right candidate, Stéphane Lang from Les Républicains ahead of the runoff. Such alliances, now openly called for by Bardella, used to be anathema for centrist parties who have pledged to keep the National Rally at arm’s length. “I am sure that this alliance is going to reproduce itself everywhere in the weeks and months to come,” Anne-Sophie Frigout told POLITICO at the rally between two selfies with local supporters. | Marion Solletty/POLITICO “I am sure that this alliance is going to reproduce itself everywhere in the weeks and months to come,” Frigout told POLITICO at the rally between two selfies with local supporters. “This is what our voters are asking for here.” The Reims merger is being touted by the National Rally and comes amid increasing support for a union on the right. But whether the merger is indicative of a greater trend within the ranks of Les Républicains remains to be seen. Lang, who failed to qualify for the runoff, was immediately expelled from his party for the rogue move. And given he and Frigout together scored 28.7 percent of the vote in the first round, the alliance is unlikely to lead to victory. Historically, the complex dynamic of ad hoc, last-minute alliances that shape local elections in France’s two-round system has worked against the National Rally, with the far right accusing the rest of the political class of conspiring to keep it out of power. But its leaders now hope they can break that glass ceiling ahead of next year’s presidential race. During his speech at the rally, Bardella’s message to France’s conservative party was simple: “Join us,” he said. “We are facing a wall that is being built against us,” Jacobelli told POLITICO on the sidelines of the rally. “It is not a glass ceiling, it is a reflex of self-preservation” from other parties. The first round of local elections on Sunday delivered mixed results for the poll-topping, far-right party, highlighting how a decisive breakthrough still eludes Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and their allies in France’s biggest cities. | Marion Solletty/POLITICO During Bardella’s speech, a small group overcome by enthusiasm chanted “Jor-dan president, Jor-dan president” — forgetting for the moment that Marine Le Pen, who had a front row seat to the scene, is still supposed to be their presidential candidate pending a decision in her appeal of a five-year election ban. In the crowd, supporters vigorously approved both leaders’ odes to the working class and their chastising of leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “If Mélenchon goes through, we lose France forever,” Jordan Delvallée, a blue-eyed, 22-year-old mechanic who came to the rally with a younger friend. “There is no better party than [the National Rally],” he said, even if “everybody is against them.” “The French get cold feet at second round because they are scared, but one shouldn’t be afraid of change.”

The Bank of England warned it may have to take a tougher line on interest rates as the spike in energy prices caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran pushes inflation higher. “Monetary policy cannot reverse this shock” to world energy supply, Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement on Thursday, after the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to leave the Bank rate unchanged at 3.75 percent. “Monetary policy must, however, respond to the risk of a more persistent effect on U.K. consumer price inflation,” Bailey added. The Bank had only last month declared victory over inflation, which has been above its 2 percent target for over four years. However, its latest analysis suggests headline inflation will rebound back above 3 percent in the next three months and could add as much as 0.75 percentage points to the consumer price index over the summer, as higher fuel bills percolate through the economy. “The MPC is alert to the increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects in wage and price-setting, the risk of which will be greater the longer higher energy prices persist,” the Bank stressed. However, it also acknowledged that the energy price spike is likely to hurt economic growth, and that it is “assessing the implications for inflation of the weakening in economic activity that is likely to result from higher energy costs.” Until the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, most analysts had predicted that a slowing economy and growing prospects of easing inflation would allow the MPC to cut rates at Thursday’s meeting. However, the invasion and the ensuing turmoil in world commodity markets have turned the situation on its head, by closing a vital chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which irreplaceable volumes of oil, gas and fertilizer pass every day. As a result, the Bank warned that there is now a real threat of higher energy prices causing a broader rise in prices across the economy. Food prices face a similar risk. ALREADY OUT OF DATE? The situation is changing so fast that the Bank’s latest forecasts could already be out of date. The Bank said they were based on the situation as of March 16, when Brent oil futures were only at $100 a barrel. But a succession of strikes on key energy installations around the Persian Gulf since then has already pushed prices up by another 12 percent. “The news flow around the war in Iran looks more worrying for global markets with each passing day,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said in a note on Thursday. Analysts argued ahead of the meeting that the Bank would prefer to err on the side of keeping policy tight in the face of the new risks, given lingering concerns about its credibility due to its slow response to the inflation shock in 2022. Inflation peaked at 11.1 percent back then, the highest rate posted by any major economy. The Bank’s change in outlook will make life doubly uncomfortable for the Labour government, which had hoped that its efforts to close the U.K. budget deficit would be rewarded with lower inflation and lower interest rates. Instead, the government’s key 10-year borrowing costs have risen by nearly half a percentage point since the war started, and they leaped again on Thursday, first in response to Iranian attacks on a Qatari gas field, then to the BoE’s statement. At 4.89 percent, the 10-year gilt yield is now at its highest in 15 months. The pound, by contrast, was steady against the dollar and euro after the decision. The Office for Budget Responsibility earlier this month already cut its forecasts for U.K. growth this year. That implies lower tax receipts which, combined with higher borrowing costs, threaten a new two-way squeeze on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal arithmetic, less than six months after she had to raise taxes sharply at her latest budget.

A blue wave may already be cresting. Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the country over the past 14 months, a sign that the GOP is indeed at risk of losing control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, in the midterms. Democratic wins have come even in deep red states, including Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi, and often by margins that make Republican leaders uneasy. “I’m ringing the alarm bell,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas GOP consultant who has run campaigns for Republicans in the state, including Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Dan Crenshaw. The results of these state-level elections reflect the immediate concerns of the electorate, provide a launching pad for the next generation of national leaders and could influence the future makeup of Congress through redistricting. They may also give both Republicans and Democrats a preview of the midterm battles to come. For Republicans, the results are a sign that they must do more to motivate low-propensity voters who helped carry President Donald Trump back to the White House, said a senior GOP campaign operative, who was granted anonymity because he didn’t have permission from the party to speak freely about the losses. “We’re the party of low propensity voters now,” said the operative. “How do we turn out these Republican voters in a midterm election?” One of the first signs that Democrats were building momentum came in August, when an Iowa Senate district swung more than 20 points to elect Democrat Catelin Drey. It was the second seat Democrats flipped in the state last year, and the moment that broke the Republican Senate supermajority in the General Assembly. Then in November, Democrats did it again: They flipped three of the six Republican-held districts in a Mississippi special election, again breaking a GOP Senate supermajority. “You are seeing people just vote for change,” said Brian Robinson, a GOP consultant in Georgia, where Republicans lost a seat in December. Robinson, an outside adviser for the state House GOP caucus, says Republicans are blamed for high prices because they’re in charge. “If it’s any one thing, it is [the] cost of living.” Robinson said, arguing that Trump will do something to reduce prices before the midterms. In recent weeks, the president has indeed taken steps, including by touting a pledge from tech companies to reduce energy costs associated with data centers and releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Iran war, which has sent global oil prices skyrocketing, complicates that effort. After Democrats flipped 13 Virginia seats and five New Jersey seats in November, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee went back to reassess state races around the country. They expanded their 2026 target map to 42 chambers and invested $50 million in changing the makeup of state legislatures — the widest map and largest single-year budget DLCC has ever approved. Legislatures in Arizona and New Hampshire are now on the “flip” list, and the DLCC hopes to break or prevent GOP supermajorities in red states across the South and Midwest. Their success could give Democrats more state power over judicial nominees, protect the veto power of Democratic governors in states with GOP-led legislatures and hand Democrats greater influence over redistricting. Republicans, meanwhile, are waiting for the funding to hit. As of January, the RNC has just over $100 million and Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC has $300 million. State Republicans say when that cash flows into midterm races, it will enable them to get low-propensity voters to vote. Turnout was a major point of discussion at an RNC conference call that Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming attended Tuesday, and he says Republicans will dedicate a lot of resources to motivate voters in November. “We’ve met with the White House more than once, and they keep track of the target states pretty closely,” said Schimming, adding he also expects Trump and Vice President JD Vance to stump in key Wisconsin congressional districts closer to the election. “They are big base motivators.” In the meantime, Democrats keep flipping state seats. The latest came Tuesday night, when Bobbi Boudman beat Republican Rep. Dale Fincher in a New Hampshire Senate seat that Trump won by 9 points. On March 24, voters will decide in a special election who represents the Florida state House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago. Democrat Emily Gregory, a small business owner who is running against Republican Jon Maples, a businessman, saw her total campaign earnings jump by nearly 75 percent between Jan. 9 and Feb. 12. In November, a national PAC connected Gregory with Drey, who flipped the Iowa seat in August. Drey advised Gregory to find the affordability issue that matters most to her district — the way energy costs resonate in New Jersey and property insurance does in Florida. “In this moment, we have all of the issues on our side. We have all of the momentum on our side,” Gregory recalled Drey telling her. “It’s just up to you as a candidate to get in front of every single voter you can and communicate that message.”

PARIS — Emmanuel Grégoire should have had an easy campaign to succeed his former boss, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo. But the pair’s very public political breakup is creating a major obstacle for the Socialist front-runner in the lead-up to the race to lead the French capital, which begins on Sunday. Since their clash, Grégoire has conspicuously distanced himself from Hidalgo, and that has meant losing the opportunity to win votes by boasting about the successful Paris Olympics or the transformation of the banks of the Seine into a popular pedestrian area with cafés and restaurants.   If Grégoire fails to extend the Socialists’ quarter-century rule of Paris, it would be a disaster for his party and further evidence of its weakness before the country’s presidential election next year. “She did everything she could to torpedo my candidacy. I’m not her candidate and I am not her heir,” Grégoire said in a February interview with franceinfo. That’s a spectacular rupture for the man who was her principal deputy from 2018 to 2024. The race is going to be close, giving the right its best opportunity in years to take control of the City of Lights — if it can unite around one candidate. Grégoire and conservative former Culture Minister Rachida Dati are running neck-and-neck for the top spot in the polls. But an unprecedented five candidates could make the runoff on March 22, which would trigger a mad scramble for alliances.  PARIS LOCAL ELECTION POLL OF POLLS All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. A BUNGLED SUCCESSION So what happened between Hidalgo, the chief architect of the French capital’s green revolution, and Grégoire, her once-presumed heir?    Over the summer, Hidalgo spurned his candidacy to support a lesser-known senator to succeed her as mayor.  Grégoire still wound up winning the Socialist Party’s nomination, but the damage was done after Hidalgo publicly claimed that “the left would lose” Paris if her former deputy was its candidate.  Three people familiar with their relationship, all granted anonymity to speak candidly, said things started to turn sour after Hidalgo’s failed 2022 presidential bid, in which she won a dismal 1.75 percent of the vote.  With Hidalgo’s fortunes waning and Grégoire seemingly tapped as her replacement, things started to get “complicated,” an official in the Socialist Party said.   The pace of change and Anne Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has not helped her popularity. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images “She has an authoritarian streak and was really hard on him,” the official said.  This is a trait that has widely been remarked upon, and it earned her the nickname “Queen-Mayor.” It helped with short-term implementation of projects but now looks like it could have undermined her party in the long run, given some of the bad blood it has fomented.   “You need toughness to succeed in Paris and transform the city,” said Gaspard Gantzer, a former Paris City Hall advisor. “Her style was a bit brutal, a bit cutting with others.”  Hidalgo was then furious when Grégoire ran for and won a parliamentary seat representing Paris during the 2024 election, according to two of the three people familiar with the relationship. One of Hidalgo’s allies said “they were both at fault,” as Grégoire became less supportive of her political ambitions and started pursuing his own agenda after the last presidential race.  “It was a classic leader versus heir situation,” the Hidalgo supporter said.   ‘A DIFFERENT MAYOR’ Asked about the feud by POLITICO when unveiling his platform to reporters last month, Grégoire said he has fond memories of working with Hidalgo but stressed he would be “a different mayor” who would address “the new expectations” of Paris residents.  Grégoire has instead tried to take a page out of Zoran Mamdani’s New York playbook, focusing his message on housing shortages and bringing down the cost of living. He’s also promised to “break with [Hidalgo’s] method.”  While Grégoire hasn’t exactly broken through in the polls, the strategy could reap benefits given the Europe-wide anti-green backlash and Hidalgo’s reputation among resident of the capital.  A poll from Ipsos published in December found that Hidalgo leaves office with a legacy that splits Parisians, even if they have come to love biking to work or enjoying more open space.   The pace of change and Hidalgo’s disregard for her critics has made her divisive, even losing some support among those proud of the Olympics and Paris becoming a global showcase for urban transformation. Hidalgo’s missteps added to the resentment, whether that focused on ill-designed bike lanes, several abandoned urban forests or the endless redevelopment of the Eiffel Tower gardens.  “She would make a huge announcement and then wait for her teams to comply,” said Paris urban policy expert Stephane Kirkland, who has worked for firms involved in Paris city projects. “It was a my-way-or-the-highway approach.” Rachida Dati has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo. | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images Kirkland said that Grégoire’s campaign has clearly “internalized the new dynamic” against green issues and exasperation with Hidalgo.  Grégoire “isn’t talking about anything green, even if his coalition includes green parties. He is really focused on social issues, security and cleanliness,” Kirkland said.  Dati, the conservative challenger, has tried to seize on public dissatisfaction with City Hall by linking Grégoire to Hidalgo and accusing the duo of turning Paris into a dirty, disorganized, never-ending construction site.  There are limits to that strategy, though. Not even Dati wants to reverse course on pedestrian zones like those on the banks of the Seine.   Aitor Hernández-Morales contributed to this report. 

LONDON — Keir Starmer knows the war in Iran could sink his number one domestic mission: Cutting the cost of living.  But unfortunately for him, the man with most power to stop the conflict seems not to be in a hurry.  The U.K. prime minister was more explicit than ever on Wednesday that he wants to see “de-escalation” in the Middle East — in part because it’s the surest way of stopping energy bills skyrocketing in his own country.  Starmer said his government was “working around the clock” to ensure consumer and business costs don’t soar, after being challenged in the House of Commons over fears that disrupted oil and gas flows from the Gulf are spiking gasoline prices and could hike home energy bills, too. “The most important thing, the most effective thing we can do,” he told MPs, “is to work with our allies to find a way to de-escalate the situation” in the Middle East.  That might prove … tricky.  While Donald Trump faces his own domestic drama over high prices at the pump, the White House is showing no signs of seeking an immediate resolution to the conflict.   The Trump administration believes it can withstand a spike in oil prices for as many as four weeks before the political pain starts to bite, POLITICO has reported. That timeframe — should it be borne out — is laden with risk of further escalation in the region, and carries major domestic political risk for Starmer, over an issue that remains the public’s number one priority.  BALANCING ACT “While the public are deeply concerned about events in the Middle East and implications for international security, those concerns are dwarfed by worries about the cost of living,” said pollster Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think tank.  “The prime minister has so far managed to stay on the right side of public opinion on the war, with the median Brit supporting Starmer’s position of allowing the use of U.K. bases purely for defensive strikes,” Tryl added. “However, the balancing act between maintaining a good relationship with the United States and being able to show he is doing everything he can to stop the war leading to another spike in the cost of living is a tricky one.”  The Trump administration believes it can withstand a spike in oil prices for as many as four weeks before the political pain starts to bite, POLITICO has reported. | Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images There’s also a Catch-22. Efforts by Starmer and other European leaders to mitigate the war’s impact on the global economy might help persuade Trump he need not hurry U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf.  America’s allies confirmed Wednesday they would coordinate — via the International Energy Agency (IEA)— release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves. Even before it was confirmed, expectation of this move helped temper oil price rises.   The next big decision could center on the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route largely closed to oil and gas shipping since the crisis began.  While welcoming agreement on the release of strategic reserves, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “The most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit” through the Strait.  Starmer’s Chancellor Rachel Reeves told MPs on Wednesday the “root cause” of the U.K.’s cost-of-living concerns “is the challenge in getting oil and gas out of the Middle East.” The government would “work flat-out” to de-escalate the conflict and “get vessels moving again in the Strait of Hormuz,” she said.  Precisely what that means in practice — or whether the U.K. or other American allies could police Hormuz without getting involved in U.S. and Israeli offensive operations against Iran — is unclear.  Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Monday, according to U.K. officials, who said they discussed their “desire to see a swift resolution that supports stability in the Middle East and protects the global economy.”  MOMENT OF MAXIMUM DANGER So far, U.K. household energy bills — significantly influenced by wholesale gas prices — have been spared the price spike, which has been driven by both the effective closure of the Strait and by Iranian attacks on energy production in Gulf countries. The most notable attack was against QatarEnergy, a major liquefied natural gas exporter, which has suspended production. U.K. gas and electricity costs are determined using a regulated price updated every three months, and prices until June are already locked in.  But the longer the war goes on, the bigger the impact will be when the price cap is set for July to September — and beyond.  Reeves told MPs on Wednesday it is “much too early, less than two weeks into the conflict, to have any certainty about what things will look like when the next energy price cap is determined, at the end of May, for July.”  But for a government that has promised to cut energy bills £300 by 2030, the longer the war, the bleaker that moment in May could be.  Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Monday, according to U.K. officials, who said they discussed their “desire to see a swift resolution that supports stability in the Middle East and protects the global economy.” | Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty images Hence Starmer’s increasingly urgent focus on somehow persuading the U.S. and Israel to draw back. That task won’t be made any easier by deteriorating relations with Trump, who last week, in a row over U.S. access to U.K. military bases, dismissed Starmer as “not Winston Churchill.”  “The most important issue is de-escalating the situation,” Starmer told MPs Wednesday, reiterating that the U.K. “should not join the war in Iran” and would only carry out defensive military operations in the region to “protect British lives and the British national interest.”  For the prime minister — hanging onto office by a thread even before the conflict — it could yet prove be existential.  “For all the support for Starmer in navigating the conflict so far,” said Tryl, “if people start to feel the impact in their pockets and bills, the demand for change which has already tanked his poll ratings will likely only grow.”  Additional reporting by Esther Webber.

THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE: CAN 3 TOP OFFICIALS SAVE THE BRITISH ESTABLISHMENT FROM ITSELF? They run Keir Starmer’s office, the king’s business, and the civil service. In moments of crisis when the politicians can’t cope, they run Britain, too.  By TIM ROSS in London Illustration by Natália Delgado/ POLITICO In the heart of historic Westminster, where kings and queens have been crowned in the same way for 1,000 years and 57 prime ministers have come and gone, the most venerable pillars of the British establishment are under unusual strain.  The swirling international scandal over sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s network of wealth and influence detonated violently in the heart of the U.K. government, rocking both the center of power in Number 10 Downing Street and the British royal family.  Prime Minister Keir Starmer is clinging onto his job amid dire polling, wretched election results and an outcry over his decision to appoint Epstein’s friend Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington. The scandal already forced his closest aide to resign.  And King Charles III is trying to prevent his disgraced brother Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s friendship with Epstein from trashing the British monarchy itself. Behind the scenes, three dutiful civil servants now find themselves in pivotal roles, trying to guide the prime minister, the king, and hundreds of thousands of public officials through an unprecedented storm. Together, this trio forms what is known as the “golden triangle” at the top of the British state — and if they can’t keep the establishment afloat, no one can.  The three are: Dan York-Smith, Starmer’s principal private secretary, who runs the PM’s Downing Street office; Clive Alderton, the king’s principal private secretary, who is the main link between the monarch and the government; and Antonia Romeo, who recently took up her post as Cabinet secretary — the most powerful civil servant in the country.  Each of these jobs is intense at the best of times. With fresh Epstein revelations expected to compound the pressure from the Middle East war, they’re all likely about to get even harder.  Peter Mandelson has promised to cooperate with the police and vowed to clear his name. | Jordan Pettitt/PA Images via Getty Images In the coming days, the government is preparing to publish a vast trove of internal documents detailing all the private conversations and messages between officials, diplomats and ministers that led up to Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to Washington, in December 2024. After that, at some point, every internal file relating to Mountbatten-Windsor’s appointment as a U.K. trade envoy more than 20 years ago will also be put into the public domain.  “The most challenging thing will be the release of information — and what that reveals,” said Alex Thomas, a former senior government official and now executive director of the Institute for Government think tank in London. “That’s the moment of jeopardy for the government, for the royal family, and for the civil service.”  At stake, potentially, is the credibility of the British establishment. Mandelson and Mountbatten-Windsor have each separately been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office.  If either were to be charged and put on trial, the resulting publicity could be hugely damaging for the monarchy and the government. Mandelson has promised to cooperate with the police and vowed to clear his name. He has previously said he was wrong to have continued his association with Epstein, who died in 2019, and apologized “unequivocally” to Epstein’s victims. Mountbatten-Windsor has not commented on his arrest but has previously denied any wrongdoing. “Much of the stability in our political system comes from a strong civil service and a strong monarchy,” said Cameron Brown, a former special adviser in the previous Conservative government. “If people lose faith in either institution, then god knows what will happen.”  YORK-SMITH: ONE CRISIS… It’s a good job, then, that each one of the three members of the golden triangle has been blooded in crises, and survived — even if their bosses at the time did not.  York-Smith rose to seniority in the Treasury as the top official in charge of writing the government’s annual budget, an exercise in balancing highly contentious and competing demands, and then keeping them secret until they are announced.  While his background in fiscal policy will no doubt have helped make York-Smith an attractive hire for Starmer, who has sought to prioritize tackling the cost of living, what may ultimately prove more valuable is the official’s experience in one of the worst self-inflicted economic crises to hit the British government in recent memory: Liz Truss’s infamous “mini-budget” of 2022.  “Dan played a key role in the stabilization phase,” said Brown, a special advisor in the Treasury at the time. “He was quite frank about what we needed to do.” That meant scrapping key parts of Truss’s tax-cutting program, which had sent the markets into meltdown and forced her to fire her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng. His replacement as the U.K.’s top finance minister, Jeremy Hunt, listened closely to York-Smith and other officials and took their advice, Brown said.  That was typical for York-Smith, whose natural authority, intelligence and composure gave him influence.  “I always found him to be exceptionally calm, cool-headed, personable and ultimately an intelligent guy. He’s more than capable and is very good at identifying problems — not just policy problems but his view of the political problems as well,” Brown said.  ROMEO: BREAKING SOME EGGS There was an unusually stormy and public debate about whether Romeo was the right person to take over as Cabinet secretary. But Starmer went ahead and appointed her last month, in the hope that a dynamic new leader would kickstart the civil service machine to deliver on his aims — and rescue his flagging premiership.  “The U.K. is in a mess — there’s a lot going on, and it kind of needs someone who’s going to get the bloody job done,” one former colleague of Romeo’s said, speaking on condition of anonymity, like others, to discuss sensitive matters. “Breaking a few eggs might not be a bad thing.”  Romeo has grappled with major political crises in her previous roles, too.  In her time as the top official in the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), she had to deal with bullying allegations against the minister in charge, Justice Secretary Dominic Raab, in the previous Tory government.  Keir Starmer appointed Romeo last month, in the hope that a dynamic new leader would kickstart the civil service machine to deliver on his aims — and rescue his flagging premiership. | Kin Cheung/Getty Images Romeo’s allies point to her determination to stand up for more junior officials who felt badly treated under Raab. She kept a crucial record of conversations in which she had warned Raab about his behavior, which ultimately contributed to an inquiry finding the minister guilty of “aggressive” and “intimidating” behavior toward officials, prompting him to resign. Romeo also had to handle a prison crisis, when the country’s jails were so full that ministers released about 3,000 prisoners early in September and October 2024 to avoid running out of places. “Antonia has always done incredibly demanding and challenging jobs — from overseeing national security at the Home Office to dealing with the prison crisis at MoJ,” one government official said. “So while this is in at the deep end — alongside the war in Iran and rapidly re-wiring the state — this is what she does.”  ALDERTON: THE KING’S MAN Romeo also has experience of working with Buckingham Palace, which is a key relationship for the Cabinet secretary. In her previous role as clerk of the Crown in Chancery, she compiled the official state record of Charles’s coronation in 2023, known as the coronation roll. It’s a tradition dating back over 700 years.  Then there is the adviser to the king. Alderton is the monarch’s closest and most influential aide, a former ambassador who has been by Charles’ side since 2015. Those who know him describe him as the kind of classic British official who will always offer you a cup of tea and has perfected the art of chatting amiably for hours without saying much of substance. In other words, he is studiously loyal and determinedly safe.  Media reports identified him as Prince Harry’s nemesis, referred to as “the wasp.” Harry’s supporters are reported to blame Alderton for the rift between the king and his son. What is certainly true is that it will have fallen to Alderton to help Charles navigate that painful relationship and the fallout from Harry’s decision to step back from his royal duties and live overseas. Alderton is the monarch’s closest and most influential aide, a former ambassador who has been by Charles’ side since 2015. | Aaron Chown/Getty Images These three top officials — Alderton, Romeo and York-Smith — do not comprise a formal group but are in contact whenever necessary, senior officials said. In a real crisis, or when preparing for one, they will speak to each other continuously.  For example, when a hung parliament was expected ahead of the 2015 general election, the then Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood booked office space inside the Cabinet Office for the late queen Elizabeth’s private secretary, Christopher Geidt, so he could be permanently available to discuss constitutional questions during coalition talks between the political parties. (In the end the Conservatives won a clear majority and no talks were needed.)  Heywood also consulted with the palace in June 2017, when Theresa May suffered a humiliating election failure in which she lost her party’s majority. He had to tell her she should stay on as prime minister and seek to form a majority of MPs in Parliament who would back her government, as she was still leader of the largest party, even though her Conservatives had lost seats.  Thomas, from the Institute for Government, remembers working alongside Heywood at that intense time in 2017, helping prepare the first cabinet meeting and trying to work out an appropriate seating plan when emotions were running high. “Part of that value of the permanent civil service is you can have someone, when the politics has collapsed around you, who can come in and say: ‘This is the defensible, correct thing to do,’” Thomas said. “In the end it’s about keeping your head, if you’re cabinet secretary.”  PROTECTING ‘THE SYSTEM’ The three officials’ objectives vary and there is sometimes room for tension, especially when the personal desires of the royals clash with the political requirements of the government. York-Smith focuses on the day-to-day business of running Downing Street as smoothly as possible. Alderton, meanwhile, prioritizes the monarch’s interests, which may be more personal — the royal family is still a family — as well as constitutional.  Romeo takes a view on longer-term government strategy, delivering for the prime minister, and preserving constitutional conventions — which require the civil service she runs to make sure the king is never dragged into party politics.  “That relationship between the Cabinet secretary, the prime minister’s PPS and Buckingham Palace is critical and I’m sure there’s a constant line of communication between the three power-brokers,” said Brown, who was a political adviser rather than a permanent civil servant. “It’s not something they ever want to show to politicians: It’s a steady constant that keeps the cogs of government going … Much of the civil service is designed to keep the system operating and to preserve the status quo and to prevent embarrassment to the system itself — and their loyalty is to the system.” Whatever the advice of officials, the big decisions remain for the elected politicians to take. And that means the prime minister, who is, constitutionally, the monarch’s first and most senior adviser. According to Thomas, the “golden triangle” name risks inflating the significance of the group. “These are people doing difficult jobs and trying to get through the day,” he said.  “But that’s not to downplay the importance of any of those jobs, or the relationship working well,” said Thomas. “There are very rare but important moments when it’s not so much for those three people to decide what to do, but it is for them almost to be the keepers of the legitimate process of getting from A to B.”  When times are good and the government, royal family and prime minister are secure in their positions, the members of the golden triangle offer their advice and leave it to their leaders to decide. But in the hardest moments, they must be ready to step up, on behalf of the long-established way in which things in Britain are done. So far, at least, that has been enough to keep the system alive. Esther Webber contributed reporting.

LONDON — Britain must “back the Americans in this vital fight against Iran!” said Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage the day the war began. Less than two weeks on and he’s changed his tune. We “don’t have a Navy” and “cannot get involved directly in another foreign war,” Farage told a press conference on Tuesday. What’s changed? An energy shock. When the conflict had just started, and before it — predictably — sent oil and gas prices soaring and became a cost-of-living issue, he was all for it. But as soon as it threatened to hit British voters in their pockets, and proved deeply unpopular in polls of normal Brits, he went all wobbly. Some of Farage’s political opponents are determined not to let the populist leader distance himself from his original enthusiasm. “Trying to pull the wool over our eyes,” said Green Party Leader Zack Polanski on Tuesday, responding to an X post in which Farage’s Treasury spokesperson, Robert Jenrick, said the “war needs to come to an end as soon as possible, because it is making Britain poorer.” Having initially backed the conflict, Reform, said Polanski, is now “the party of foreign wars and higher bills.” Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has taken a similar tack, telling the BBC on Monday that voters worried about the war’s effect on the cost of living should remember that Farage’s Reform, like the Conservative’s Kemi Badenoch, “cheered on Donald Trump.” Farage insisted Tuesday there’s no inconsistency, and that his original position had merely been that Prime Minister Keir Starmer should have allowed U.S. forces to launch attacks on Iran from U.K. bases from the outset of the conflict, not necessarily that the U.K. should join attacks on Iran. But the shift in tone reveals something fundamental about British politics in 2026: The cost of living is everything. A war that threatens to send it even higher always had the potential to prove unpopular. “The public are deeply uneasy about what they think could be unnecessary and costly involvement in foreign wars, [and have] significant hesitations about too close an alignment with President Trump,” said pollster Scarlett Maguire, director of Merlin Strategy. Ed Miliband posted a video seeking to “reassure” voters that the “cost of living crisis remains our number one priority — because its yours.” | Sean Gallup/Getty Images “The cost of living crisis in this country only exacerbates this, with voters already feeling that the government are not doing enough to bring down energy prices and inflation,” she added. On Tuesday, Farage and Jenrick attempted to flip the narrative by blaming “a ruinous climate agenda” for high energy costs in the U.K. The two unveiled a pledge not to increase taxes on gasoline, a promise they would pay for by scrapping green spending on heat pumps and carbon capture technology. And the Reform UK leader downplayed the impact of the war on oil and gas prices. “If the Straits of Hormuz are cleared — I accept that’s an ‘if’ — oil will be back into the low 80s [dollars per barrel],” predicted Farage at the event at service station Derbyshire. But he was challenged by a local news reporter, who noted that a third of people in the local area use heating oil to warm their homes — and are already seeing prices rise. The Labour government has, so far, been cautious not to attack Reform or the Conservatives too fiercely for their initial stance on the war, wary of driving a further wedge between Downing Street and the White House. But they are seeking to portray themselves as the grown-ups in the room, laser-focused on the cost of living. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband posted an uncharacteristically sober video message to social media on Tuesday, seeking to “reassure” voters that the “cost of living crisis remains our number one priority — because its yours.” Despite its own missteps over the Iran war, that’s a message Starmer’s government will be desperate to land, as the conflict’s shockwaves continue to hit Britain’s shores. Noah Keate contributed to this report.