PARIS — One of French President Emmanuel Macron’s top political allies is under
fire over respect for the rule of law after he fired a high-ranking official at
the country’s most powerful constitutional body.
The head of France’s Constitutional Council, Richard Ferrand, one of the
president’s closest confidants, dismissed the institution’s secretary general,
Aurélie Bretonneau, just a year after she was appointed.
In an internal email sent late on March 23 and seen by POLITICO, Bretonneau said
Ferrand had “informed [her] that he has proposed to the President of the
Republic that [she] step down from [her] position due to differences of opinion
on the conduct of the institution.”
The move triggered strong reactions from top French political officials and
legal scholars.
Aurélien Rousseau, a former health minister in Macron’s government and now a
center-left MP, said on X that the move was “worrying” and highlighted the
“flippancy with which our institutions are treated.”
Green MEP David Cormand posted: “It is a problem that a member of a particular
clan has been appointed to head our country’s highest constitutional body,”
adding that such actions undermine French democracy and institutions.
Ferrand’s appointment by Macron last year was criticized as an attempt to
politicize the independent institution, which has the power to rule on whether
legislation passed by the National Assembly is in accordance with the
constitution.
Ferrand, a former president of the National Assembly, has limited legal training
and was one of Macron’s earliest supporters.
The Constitutional Council rules on legal challenges and oversees elections. Its
members don’t need to be trained judges or lawyers.
Four people within the institution confirmed to POLITICO that Ferrand had
decided to fire Bretonneau.
“Differences of opinion” between Ferrand and Bretonneau had emerged in recent
months, particularly “on the role of the law”, said two of the officials, who
were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
According to one of the officials, the disagreements between Ferrand and
Bretonneau reached their peak near the end of last year when, amid a spiralling
budgetary crisis, the government contemplated the possibility of passing fiscal
legislation via executive action.
Bretonneau sent out an internal memo arguing that a budget passed by the
government through executive action could not include amendments on what had
already been drafted, a ruling that would have tied the government’s hands
during a period of tense negotiations with opposition parties.
She also argued that the Constitutional Council did not have the authority to
review the legislation.
Her conclusions reportedly upset Ferrand.
Ferrand did not respond to POLITICO’s request for comment on Monday. Bretonneau
also declined to comment.
“Aurélie Bretonneau is not the type of person to compromise on the defense of
the rule of law, the rigour of legal reasoning or the independence of the
institution,” a senior civil servant told POLITICO. “If that’s what bothered
her, it’s a major problem.”
Bretonneau’s appointment had been directly approved by Ferrand.
Tag - opinion
BUDAPEST — If Brussels claws back €10 billion of EU funds controversially
disbursed to Hungary, it will also have to recover as much as €137 billion from
Poland too, Budapest’s EU affairs minister told POLITICO.
The European Commission made a highly contentious decision in December 2023 to
free up €10 billion of EU funds to Hungary that had been frozen because of
weaknesses on rule of law deficiencies and backsliding on judicial independence.
Members of the European Parliament condemned what looked like a political
decision, offering a sweetener to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán just before a key
summit where the EU needed his support for Ukraine aid.
On Feb. 12, Court of Justice of the European Union Advocate General Tamara
Ćapeta recommended annulling the decision, meaning Hungary may have to return
the funds if the court follows in its final ruling in the coming months. Orbán
has slammed the idea of a repayment as “absurd.”
János Bóka, Hungary’s EU affairs minister, told POLITICO that clawing back the
€10 billion from the euroskeptic government in Budapest would mean that Brussels
should also be recovering cash from Poland, led by pro-EU Prime Minister Donald
Tusk.
“We believe that the Commission’s decision was lawful … the opinion, I think,
it’s legally excessive,” Bóka said. He warned that “if the Advocate General’s
opinion is followed then the Commission would be legally required to freeze all
the EU money going to Poland as well, which I think in any case the Commission
is not willing to do.”
The legal opinion on Hungary states the the Commission was wrong in unfreezing
the funds “before the required legislative reforms had entered into force or
were being applied,” Ćapeta said in February.
Bóka said that would seem to describe the situation in Poland too.
In February 2024, the EU executive released €137 billion in frozen funds to
Tusk’s government in exchange for promised judicial reforms. But these have
since been blocked by President Karol Nawrocki as tensions between the two
worsen — spelling trouble for Poland’s continued access to EU cash.
“It’s very easy to get the EU funds if they want to give it to you, as we could
see in the case of Poland, where they could get the funds with a page-and-a-half
action plan, which is still not implemented because of legislative difficulty,”
Bóka said.
Fundamentally, that is why Bóka said he believed “the court will not issue any
judgment that would put Poland in a difficult position.”
Bóka risks leaving office with Orbán after the April 12 election, with
opposition leader Péter Magyar leading in the polls on a platform of unlocking
EU funds, tackling corruption, and improving healthcare and education.
The Commission is, separately, withholding another €18 billion of Hungarian
funds — €7.6 billion in cohesion funds and €10.4 billion from the coronavirus
recovery package.
“I think Péter Magyar is right when he says that the Commission wants to give
this money to them … in exchange, like they did in the case of Poland, they want
alignment in key policy areas,” he said, “like support for Ukraine,
green-lighting progress in Ukraine’s accession process, decoupling from Russian
oil and gas, and implementing the Migration Pact.”
“Just like in the case of Poland, they might allow rhetorical deviation from the
line, but in key areas, they want alignment and compliance.”
Poland’s Tusk has been vocal against EU laws, such as the migration pact and
carbon emission reduction laws.
Bóka also accused the Commission of deciding “not to engage in meaningful
discussions [on EU funds] as the elections drew closer.”
He added that if Orbán’s Fidesz were to win the election, “neither us nor the
Commission will have any other choice than to sit down and discuss how we can
make progress in this process.”
Legal experts are cautious about assessing the potential impact of such a
ruling, noting that the funds for Poland and Hungary were frozen under different
legal frameworks. However, there is broad agreement that the case is likely to
set some form of precedent over how the Commission handles disbursements of EU
funds to its members.
If the legal opinion is followed, “there could be a strong case against
disbursing funds against Poland,” said Jacob Öberg, EU law professor at
University of Southern Denmark. He said, however, that it is not certain the
court will follow Ćapeta’s opinion because the cases assess different national
contexts.
Paul Dermine, EU law professor at the Université Libre de Bruxelles agreed the
court ruling could “at least in theory, have repercussions on what happened in
the Polish case,” but said that he thought judges would follow the legal opinion
“as the wrongdoings of the Commission in the Hungarian case are quite blatant.”
Anton, a 44-year-old Russian soldier who heads a workshop responsible for
repairing and supplying drones, was at his kitchen table when he learned last
month that Elon Musk’s SpaceX had cut off access to Starlink terminals used by
Russian forces. He scrambled for alternatives, but none offered unlimited
internet, data plans were restrictive, and coverage did not extend to the areas
of Ukraine where his unit operated.
It’s not only American tech executives who are narrowing communications options
for Russians. Days later, Russian authorities began slowing down access
nationwide to the messaging app Telegram, the service that frontline troops use
to coordinate directly with one another and bypass slower chains of command.
“All military work goes through Telegram — all communication,” Anton, whose name
has been changed because he fears government reprisal, told POLITICO in voice
messages sent via the app. “That would be like shooting the entire Russian army
in the head.”
Telegram would be joining a home screen’s worth of apps that have become useless
to Russians. Kremlin policymakers have already blocked or limited access to
WhatsApp, along with parent company Meta’s Facebook and Instagram, Microsoft’s
LinkedIn, Google’s YouTube, Apple’s FaceTime, Snapchat and X, which like SpaceX
is owned by Musk. Encrypted messaging apps Signal and Discord, as well as
Japanese-owned Viber, have been inaccessible since 2024. Last month, President
Vladimir Putin signed a law requiring telecom operators to block cellular and
fixed internet access at the request of the Federal Security Service. Shortly
after it took effect on March 3, Moscow residents reported widespread problems
with mobile internet, calls and text messages across all major operators for
several days, with outages affecting mobile service and Wi-Fi even inside the
State Duma.
Those decisions have left Russians increasingly cut off from both the outside
world and one another, complicating battlefield coordination and disrupting
online communities that organize volunteer aid, fundraising and discussion of
the war effort. Deepening digital isolation could turn Russia into something
akin to “a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China,”
according to Alexander Gabuev, the Berlin-based director of the Carnegie Russia
Eurasia Center.
In April, the Kremlin is expected to escalate its campaign against Telegram —
already one of Russia’s most popular messaging platforms, but now in the absence
of other social-media options, a central hub for news, business and
entertainment. It may block the platform altogether. That is likely to fuel an
escalating struggle between state censorship and the tools people use to evade
it, with Russia’s place in the world hanging in the balance.
“It’s turned into a war,” said Mikhail Klimarev, executive director of the
internet Protection Society, a digital rights group that monitors Russia’s
censorship infrastructure. “A guerrilla war. They hunt down the VPNs they can
see, they block them — and the ‘partisans’ run, build new bunkers, and come
back.”
THE APP THAT RUNS THE WAR
On Feb. 4, SpaceX tightened the authentication system that Starlink terminals
use to connect to its satellite network, introducing stricter verification for
registered devices. The change effectively blocked many terminals operated by
Russian units relying on unauthorized connections, cutting Starlink traffic
inside Ukraine by roughly 75 percent, according to internet traffic analysis
by Doug Madory, an analyst at the U.S. network monitoring firm Kentik.
The move threw Russian operations into disarray, allowing Ukraine to make
battlefield gains. Russia has turned to a workaround widely used before
satellite internet was an option: laying fiber-optic lines, from rear areas
toward frontline battlefield positions.
Until then, Starlink terminals had allowed drone operators to stream live video
through platforms such as Discord, which is officially blocked in Russia but
still sometimes used by the Russian military via VPNs, to commanders at multiple
levels. A battalion commander could watch an assault unfold in real time and
issue corrections — “enemy ahead” or “turn left” — via radio or Telegram. What
once required layers of approval could now happen in minutes.
Satellite-connected messaging apps became the fastest way to transmit
coordinates, imagery and targeting data.
But on Feb. 10, Roskomnadzor, the Russian communications regulator, began
slowing down Telegram for users across Russia, citing alleged violations of
Russian law. Russian news outlet RBC reported, citing two sources, that
authorities plan to shut down Telegram in early April — though not on the front
line.
In mid-February, Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev said the
government did not yet intend to restrict Telegram at the front but hoped
servicemen would gradually transition to other platforms. Kremlin spokesperson
Dmitry Peskov said this week the company could avoid a full ban by complying
with Russian legislation and maintaining what he described as “flexible contact”
with authorities.
Roskomnadzor has accused Telegram of failing to protect personal data, combat
fraud and prevent its use by terrorists and criminals. Similar accusations have
been directed at other foreign tech platforms. In 2022, a Russian court
designated Meta an “extremist organization” after the company said it would
temporarily allow posts calling for violence against Russian soldiers in the
context of the Ukraine war — a decision authorities used to justify blocking
Facebook and Instagram in Russia and increasing pressure on the company’s other
services, including WhatsApp.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov, a Russian-born entrepreneur now based in the
United Arab Emirates, says the throttiling is being used as a pretext to push
Russians toward a government-controlled messaging app designed for surveillance
and political censorship.
That app is MAX, which was launched in March 2025 and has been compared to
China’s WeChat in its ambition to anchor a domestic digital ecosystem.
Authorities are increasingly steering Russians toward MAX through employers,
neighborhood chats and the government services portal Gosuslugi — where citizens
retrieve documents, pay fines and book appointments — as well as through banks
and retailers. The app’s developer, VK, reports rapid user growth, though those
figures are difficult to independently verify.
“They didn’t just leave people to fend for themselves — you could say they led
them by the hand through that adaptation by offering alternatives,” said Levada
Center pollster Denis Volkov, who has studied Russian attitudes toward
technology use. The strategy, he said, has been to provide a Russian or
state-backed alternative for the majority, while stopping short of fully
criminalizing workarounds for more technologically savvy users who do not want
to switch.
Elena, a 38-year-old Yekaterinburg resident whose surname has been withheld
because she fears government reprisal, said her daughter’s primary school moved
official communication from WhatsApp to MAX without consulting parents. She
keeps MAX installed on a separate tablet that remains mostly in a drawer — a
version of what some Russians call a “MAXophone,” gadgets solely for that app,
without any other data being left on those phones for the (very real) fear the
government could access it.
“It works badly. Messages are delayed. Notifications don’t come,” she said. “I
don’t trust it … And this whole situation just makes people angry.”
THE VPN ARMS RACE
Unlike China’s centralized “Great Firewall,” which filters traffic at the
country’s digital borders, Russia’s system operates internally. Internet
providers are required to route traffic through state-installed deep packet
inspection equipment capable of controlling and analyzing data flows in real
time.
“It’s not one wall,” Klimarev said. “It’s thousands of fences. You climb one,
then there’s another.”
The architecture allows authorities to slow services without formally banning
them — a tactic used against YouTube before its web address was removed from
government-run domain-name servers last month. Russian law explicitly provides
government authority for blocking websites on grounds such as extremism,
terrorism, illegal content or violations of data regulations, but it does not
clearly define throttling — slowing traffic rather than blocking it outright —
as a formal enforcement mechanism. “The slowdown isn’t described anywhere in
legislation,” Klimarev said. “It’s pressure without procedure.”
In September, Russia banned advertising for virtual private network services
that citizens use to bypass government-imposed restrictions on certain apps or
sites. By Klimarev’s estimate, roughly half of Russian internet users now know
what a VPN is, and millions pay for one. Polling last year by the Levada Center,
Russia’s only major independent pollster, suggests regular use is lower, finding
about one-quarter of Russians said they have used VPN services.
Russian courts can treat the use of anonymization tools as an aggravating factor
in certain crimes — steps that signal growing pressure on circumvention
technologies without formally outlawing them. In February, the Federal
Antimonopoly Service opened what appears to be the first case against a media
outlet for promoting a VPN after the regional publication Serditaya Chuvashiya
advertised such a service on its Telegram channel.
Surveys in recent years have shown that many Russians, particularly older
citizens, support tighter internet regulation, often citing fraud, extremism and
online safety. That sentiment gives authorities political space to tighten
controls even when the restrictions are unpopular among more technologically
savvy users.
Even so, the slowdown of Telegram drew criticism from unlikely quarters,
including Sergei Mironov, a longtime Kremlin ally and leader of the Just Russia
party. In a statement posted on his Telegram channel on Feb. 11, he blasted the
regulators behind the move as “idiots,” accusing them of undermining soldiers at
the front. He said troops rely on the app to communicate with relatives and
organize fundraising for the war effort, warning that restricting it could cost
lives. While praising the state-backed messaging app MAX, he argued that
Russians should be free to choose which platforms they use.
Pro-war Telegram channels frame the government’s blocking techniques as sabotage
of the war effort. Ivan Philippov, who tracks Russia’s influential military
bloggers, said the reaction inside that ecosystem to news about Telegram has
been visceral “rage.”
Unlike Starlink, whose cutoff could be blamed on a foreign company, restrictions
on Telegram are viewed as self-inflicted. Bloggers accuse regulators of
undermining the war effort. Telegram is used not only for battlefield
coordination but also for volunteer fundraising networks that provide basic
logistics the state does not reliably cover — from transport vehicles and fuel
to body armor, trench materials and even evacuation equipment. Telegram serves
as the primary hub for donations and reporting back to supporters.
“If you break Telegram inside Russia, you break fundraising,” Philippov said.
“And without fundraising, a lot of units simply don’t function.”
Few in that community trust MAX, citing technical flaws and privacy concerns.
Because MAX operates under Russian data-retention laws and is integrated with
state services, many assume their communications would be accessible to
authorities.
Philippov said the app’s prominent defenders are largely figures tied to state
media or the presidential administration. “Among independent military bloggers,
I haven’t seen a single person who supports it,” he said.
Small groups of activists attempted to organize rallies in at least 11 Russian
cities, including Moscow, Irkutsk and Novosibirsk, in defense of Telegram.
Authorities rejected or obstructed most of the proposed demonstrations — in some
cases citing pandemic-era restrictions, weather conditions or vague security
concerns — and in several cases revoked previously issued permits. In
Novosibirsk, police detained around 15 people ahead of a planned rally. Although
a small number of protests were formally approved, no large-scale demonstrations
ultimately took place.
THE POWER TO PULL THE PLUG
The new law signed last month allows Russia’s Federal Security Service to order
telecom operators to block cellular and fixed internet access. Peskov, the
Kremlin spokesman, said subsequent shutdowns of service in Moscow were linked to
security measures aimed at protecting critical infrastructure and countering
drone threats, adding that such limitations would remain in place “for as long
as necessary.”
In practice, the disruptions rarely amount to a total communications blackout.
Most target mobile internet rather than all services, while voice calls and SMS
often continue to function. Some domestic websites and apps — including
government portals or banking services — may remain accessible through
“whitelists,” meaning authorities allow certain services to keep operating even
while broader internet access is restricted. The restrictions are typically
localized and temporary, affecting specific regions or parts of cities rather
than the entire country.
Internet disruptions have increasingly become a tool of control beyond
individual platforms. Research by the independent outlet Meduza and the
monitoring project Na Svyazi has documented dozens of regional internet
shutdowns and mobile network restrictions across Russia, with disruptions
occurring regularly since May 2025.
The communications shutdown, and uncertainty around where it will go next, is
affecting life for citizens of all kinds, from the elderly struggling to contact
family members abroad to tech-savvy users who juggle SIM cards and secondary
phones to stay connected. Demand has risen for dated communication devices —
including walkie-talkies, pagers and landline phones — along with paper maps as
mobile networks become less reliable, according to retailers interviewed by RBC.
“It feels like we’re isolating ourselves,” said Dmitry, 35, who splits his time
between Moscow and Dubai and whose surname has been withheld to protect his
identity under fear of governmental reprisal. “Like building a sovereign grave.”
Those who track Russian public opinion say the pattern is consistent: irritation
followed by adaptation. When Instagram and YouTube were blocked or slowed in
recent years, their audiences shrank rapidly as users migrated to alternative
services rather than mobilizing against the restrictions.
For now, Russia’s digital tightening resembles managed escalation rather than
total isolation. Officials deny plans for a full shutdown, and even critics say
a complete severing would cripple banking, logistics and foreign trade.
“It’s possible,” Klimarev said. “But if they do that, the internet won’t be the
main problem anymore.”
BERLIN — Chancellor Friedrich Merz often warns that Germany is living through
deeply insecure times — and increasingly, it looks like his own government could
become a casualty.
Merz’s ideologically divided government is under growing pressure to respond to
rising anxiety in Germany over the country’s economic future as key
manufacturing sectors decline and the fallout from wars in Ukraine and Iran
mounts.
Merz’s coalition of conservatives and the center-left Social Democratic Party
(SPD) is increasingly at odds over how to revive Germany’s stagnating economy.
Both parties were defeated by the Greens in a vote in the state of
Baden-Württemberg on Sunday, and polls suggest further chastening losses are in
store when voters in two eastern German states — bastions of the far-right
Alternative for Germany (AfD) — vote later this year.
In Baden-Württemberg, where the AfD finished a strong third, Merz’s
conservatives came up shy in their effort to recapture power in a state that was
long a conservative power base, while the SPD, Germany’s oldest political party,
suffered its worst election performance since World War II, coming in with a
humiliating 5.5 percent.
The election “was one of the darkest days I could imagine,” said Andreas Stoch,
the SPD’s lead candidate in Baden-Württemberg. “To be honest, I never could have
imagined standing in front of the press to announce a single-digit election
result for the SPD.”
As political pressure rises, both the SPD and Merz’s conservative Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) are being pushed to reframe a series of policies — from
reforms meant to restore economic competitiveness to the government’s stance on
the war in Iran — to appeal to their bases. That could well make the divergent
coalition far more fractious.
SPD’s lead candidate in Baden-Württemberg Andreas Stoch. | Kay Nietfeld/picture
alliance via Getty Images
Merz on Monday said his coalition will endure — less out of conviction, but more
due to the inescapable political reality, calling it “the only option for a
stable government” in the political center given the rise of radical parties.
“I have already spoken with the two party leaders of the SPD, and we agree that
we will, of course, continue the work of the coalition and that we will also try
to shape this work in the interests of the country so that we can emerge from
our country’s economic weakness,” he said.
There’s another electoral test coming in less than two weeks, in the the small
southwestern state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Polling suggests the SPD and CDU are
neck and neck in the race to win the state, and that the AfD is poised to more
than double its support.
‘NOT OUR WAR’
One of the major areas of disagreements between Merz’s conservatives and the SPD
involves reforms intended to make the economy more competitive. While Merz’s
conservatives are pushing for cuts to social spending, the SPD is under rising
pressure to preserve the safety net in order to prevent the defection of what
remains of its socialist base.
Germany’s constitutional spending limits are another area of tension. While the
coalition partners agreed to loosen the rules for defense purposes, SPD
lawmakers want to further relax them. Merz’s conservatives, however, reject that
notion, and Merz doubled down on that position on Monday. “Further debt is out
of the question,” he said.
Another issue that is increasingly dividing the coalition is Merz’s supportive
stance on the U.S. and Israel’s attacks against Iran. The chancellor reiterated
that support Monday.
Friedrich Merz has vowed that his conservatives will maintain their “firewall”
around the AfD, refusing to govern in national and state coalitions with the
far-right party. | Nadja Wohlleben/Getty Images
“You know that Iran supports Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine,
that Iran is largely responsible for the terror of Hamas, that Iran is the
center of international terrorism, and that this center must be shut down, and
the Americans and Israelis are doing that in their own way,” Merz said.
The vast majority of Germans are against the strikes on Iran, according to
surveys, and SPD lawmakers argue that the strikes are a violation of
international law.
“I say very clearly: This is not our war,” SPD national leader Lars Klingbeil,
who also serves as Germany’s vice chancellor and finance minister, said in an
interview with RND over the weekend.
In Baden-Württemberg, surveys suggest concerns about wars abroad fused with
worries about the economy to generate a diffuse sense of anxiety. Almost three
quarters (72 percent) of voters said they have “great concerns” about Europe’s
security, according to a survey done for German public television, and more than
half (56 percent) said they feared they wouldn’t have enough money in old age.
Perhaps most concerning for Merz’s government is that the AfD gained significant
vote share in Baden-Württemberg despite facing allegations of systemic nepotism
that threaten to shatter its self-styled anti-establishment image.
In the two states in the former East Germany where elections are to be held in
September, the AfD is far ahead of all other parties in polls. The
Russia-friendly party’s popularity in the East is partly driven by concerns over
the Merz government’s support for Ukraine; in one recent poll carried out in
four eastern German states, a majority of people said they believe that this
support “goes too far.“
Merz has vowed that his conservatives will maintain their “firewall” around the
AfD, refusing to govern in national and state coalitions with the far-right
party. But AfD leaders believe that if they continue to gain ground by hitting
Merz’s party on the economy, that firewall will crumble.
“If the conservatives get five bad results in a row, at some point the pressure
will become so great that it will either lead to their destruction or the
firewall will be gone,” said Marc Bernhard, a national AfD lawmaker from
Baden-Württemberg. “The conservatives will have to make a move. That will be
this year’s outcome.”
ROME — U.S. President Donald Trump’s airstrikes on Iran are creating a problem
for his ally Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of a high-stakes
referendum on March 22-23, which polls suggest she risks losing.
While the nationwide referendum is ostensibly about judicial reform, it has
rapidly snowballed into a broader vote of confidence in Meloni and her
right-wing government, Italy’s most stable in years.
Meloni’s close alliance with Trump now threatens her political fortunes as he is
highly unpopular in Italy, with 77 percent of people holding an “unfavorable”
view of him according to the pollster Yougov. The war is also exacerbating
widespread fears about an energy price shock — a major factor in a country that
already pays some of the EU’s highest power prices.
That hostility toward the U.S. president, as well as fears over the impact of
the war on household bills, means Meloni is now treading a tightrope, avoiding
criticizing her powerful ally in the White House while reassuring voters that
Rome will not be dragged into the war.
In a political compromise, Meloni on Thursday pledged air-defense support to
Gulf states hit by retaliatory fire from Iran, and her defense minister said
Italy would send “naval assets” to protect Cyprus. She is simultaneously
insisting, however, that Italy will not give direct support to the U.S.-Israeli
war against Tehran, and notes that U.S. bases in Italy are authorized only to
offer logistical support, not to conduct offensive operations.
“We’re not at war; we don’t want to go to war,” she told RTL radio on Thursday.
This balancing act over Iran could hardly come at a worse time for Meloni. Polls
now suggest the referendum is too close to call, and that much will depend on
the turnout. Should she lose, it would be a major set-back for a politician who
has enjoyed an air of invincibility at home and on the EU stage in recent years.
The Italian leader has invested heavily in her relationship with Trump, hoping
to position herself as a kind of European “Trump whisperer” capable of
maintaining influence in Washington.
But that strategy is now beginning to carry political costs at home, with
Italy’s marginal role in U.S. strategic decision-making laid bare by the
stranding of her Defense Minister Guido Crosetto in Dubai last week, as the
strikes unfolded without prior warning.
Crosetto himself later conceded the powerlessness of America’s European allies
in a parliamentary debate. He admitted the attack on Iran had “certainly
occurred outside the rules of international law” but added no government —
European or otherwise — could have prevented the strikes.
The potential use of U.S. military bases in Italy also risks becoming
politically explosive in a country where the public has historically been wary
of being drawn into U.S.-led conflicts.
The government insisted that the use of bases such as Naval Air Station
Sigonella in Sicily is limited to logistical and technical support covered by
long-standing bilateral agreements. Using Italian soil to provide support for
strikes would require the government’s permission, which has not been requested,
Meloni said in her comments to RTL on Thursday.
In a political compromise, Giorgia Meloni on Thursday pledged air-defense
support to Gulf states hit by retaliatory fire from Iran. | Antonio
Masiello/Getty Images
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told parliament that the government’s actions
were meant to protect Italian citizens in the region as well as shipping lanes,
and to prevent a spike in energy prices. “We are not just addressing Trump’s
positions; the safety of our fellow citizens is the priority.”
Conscious of the danger posed by soaring energy prices, Meloni on Tuesday
summoned energy leaders to her office for ministerial talks on energy security.
She told Italian radio that her government was “working incessantly” on stemming
price rises in food and energy.
Sensing her political vulnerability, however, opposition parties have criticized
her for refusing to condemn the strikes and over her subservience to the U.S.
During the debate in the parliament, Angelo Bonelli of the Green and Left
Alliance accused the government of being subservient to Trump.
“You are leading Italy into war, minister. Do you know why? Because when a
military aircraft arrives, be it a cargo plane or something else, and goes to
perform maintenance or something else, those planes will then go bomb, they will
go into the theater of war, they will provide military logistical support,” he
said. “What’s the difference between military logistical support and someone who
goes bombing? It means being at war, and we don’t agree. No, thank you!”
Arnaldo Lomuti, a lawmaker from the populist 5Star Movement, quipped that Rome
should distance itself from Washington and Israel, requesting that the
government “impose sanctions against the United States, and present a military
aid package for Iran.”
Analyst Leo Goretti of the Istituto d’Affari Internazionali said Meloni “is
keeping a low profile, well aware that public opinion is overwhelmingly against
Italian involvement in the war, while needing not to damage relations with
Trump.”
Jacopo Barigazzi contributed to this report.
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Friedrich Merz reist nach China. Mit einer 30-köpfigen Wirtschaftsdelegation und
klaren Worten im Gepäck. Kurz vor dem Abflug hat der Kanzler das Land als
globalen Machtfaktor beschrieben, der Abhängigkeiten ausnutzt, Taiwan unter
Druck setzt und die internationale Ordnung in seinem Sinne neu deutet. Gordon
Repinski analysiert, wie der Kanzler die kritische Perspektive darauf und
wirtschaftspolitische Interessen Deutschlands auf seiner Reise in Einklang
bringen will.
Im 200-Sekunden-Interview spricht BDI-Hauptgeschäftsführerin Tanja Gönner über
Wettbewerb mit China, De-Risking, Exportkontrollen bei Seltenen Erden und die
Balance zwischen strategischer Eigenständigkeit und wirtschaftlicher
Kooperation.
Bei den Grünen steht eine weitreichende Parteireform an. Maximilian Stascheit
über ein neues Präsidium, Generalsekretär, weniger basisdemokratische Elemente.
Die Partei will ihre Strukturen stärker an Union und SPD angleichen.
Zwei Jahre POLITICO Deutschland. Beim Jubiläum im Axel-Springer-Hochhaus
diskutieren u.a. Julia Klöckner, Karsten Wildberger, Ricarda Lang, Tim
Klüssendorf und Florence Gaub über Debattenkultur, Reformfähigkeitg in der
Politik. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon
Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt,
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Donald Trump launched a fresh attack Wednesday on Keir Starmer, lambasting a
deal the British prime minster painstakingly struck with Mauritius over the
Diego Garcia military base in the Chagos Islands.
In a post on Truth Social, the U.S. president — whose own State Department had
signaled tentative backing for the agreement just a day before — urged Starmer:
“DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”
The move is likely to trigger whiplash in the British government, which believed
it had once again secured U.S. blessing after a Trump post in January excoriated
a deal his own administration had formally backed in 2025.
Under the arrangement, struck last year after months of negotiations, the joint
U.S.-U.K. base will remain under the control of both countries for the next 99
years under a lease agreement.
But Trump posted Wednesday: “I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of
the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that
he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that
is ‘claiming’ Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located
in the Indian Ocean.”
The Mauritian government — which has long claimed it was forced to give up the
Chagos Islands to make way for the base in the 1960s — will receive payments
from the U.K. for the new set-up, and gains ultimate sovereignty over the former
British imperial possession.
While Trump on Wednesday nodded to a “strong and powerful” relationship with the
U.K., he warned Starmer “is losing control of this important Island by claims of
entities never known of before.”
“In our opinion, they are fictitious in nature,” he added.
In an apparent warning that the U.S. could exert further pressure if tensions
ramp up in the Middle East, Trump said: “Should Iran decide not to make a Deal,
it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield
located in [England’s] Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a
highly unstable and dangerous Regime — An attack that would potentially be made
on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries.”
Starmer, he said, should “not lose control, for any reason, of Diego Garcia, by
entering a tenuous, at best, 100 Year Lease.”
Allowing the land to be taken away would be “a blight on our Great Ally.”
The U.S. president concluded: “We will always be ready, willing, and able to
fight for the U.K., but they have to remain strong in the face of Wokeism, and
other problems put before them. DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!”
The attack comes just a day after the U.S. Department of State issued a
statement saying it “supports” the agreement, a move interpreted as progress in
London. Legislation finalizing the agreement was expected to return to the House
of Lords next week after being delayed.
The stated aims of the deal are to settle the future of the disputed territory
and to “complete the process of decolonisation of Mauritius,” with the U.K.
arguing it had moved to head off potential legal action in international courts.
Senior opposition figures in Britain’s Conservative and Reform UK parties have
been lobbying against the deal, which will cost Britain around £3.4 billion over
the initial 99-year lease.
The U.K. Foreign Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Sam Blewett contributed reporting.
NEW YORK — President Donald Trump on Monday asked a New York appeals court to
overturn his criminal conviction in the Manhattan hush money case that made him
a felon as he plotted a path back to the White House last year.
In a 96-page filing, Trump’s lawyers relied on many of the same arguments that
Trump previously made before, during and immediately following the 2024 trial,
including that the conviction should be thrown out in light of the Supreme
Court’s ruling on presidential immunity and that the judge who oversaw the trial
should have recused himself because he made political contributions.
“This case should never have seen the inside of a courtroom, let alone resulted
in a conviction,” his lawyers, a six-person team of Sullivan & Cromwell
attorneys, wrote.
The appeal is just one of Trump’s attempts to overturn his conviction last May
of 34 counts of business fraud for his effort to conceal a hush money payment to
porn star Stormy Daniels.
He has separately asked a federal appeals court to transfer his state criminal
case to federal court. Such a move would pave the way for Trump to eventually
ask the Supreme Court to erase his criminal record by tossing his conviction on
presidential immunity grounds.
Though Trump has suffered few consequences as a result of the conviction — he
won reelection in November and was subsequently sentenced to no punishment in
January — he’ll still carry the title of felon unless an appellate court
overturns the case.
Trump’s lawyers argued in the filing Monday that the Supreme Court’s decision on
presidential immunity, issued more than a month after a New York jury convicted
Trump in the hush money case, meant prosecutors from the Manhattan district
attorney’s office should have been precluded from using evidence connected to
Trump’s “official acts” as president during his first term. That evidence, his
lawyers wrote, included testimony about conversations between Trump and Hope
Hicks, who was then the White House communications director, as well as Trump’s
social media posts.
Late last year, the trial judge, Justice Juan Merchan, rejected the notion that
the immunity ruling applied to the evidence used in the case, finding that
evidence at issue related not to Trump’s official acts, but instead to his
private conduct — specifically, his effort to conceal a hush money payment to
Daniels.
Trump’s lawyers also took aim at Merchan himself, as they did numerous times
during the course of the prosecution, writing that “his impartiality was
reasonably in doubt” because of small-dollar political contributions he made to
Democratic candidates or causes in 2020. They also cited his daughter’s work for
a digital agency whose clients include a number of Democratic officials.
When Trump’s lawyers made the same arguments in 2023, asking Merchan to recuse
himself, the judge disclosed that he had sought guidance earlier that year from
the New York State Advisory Committee on Judicial Ethics about several issues
Trump subsequently raised.
The judge said the committee had issued an advisory opinion regarding his
daughter’s employment that concluded: “We see nothing in the inquiry to suggest
that the outcome of the case could have any effect on the judge’s relative, the
relative’s business, or any of their interests.”
The State Department rebuffed a recent ruling from the International Court of
Justice on Wednesday, defending Israel on a court opinion that found the Israeli
government is obligated to facilitate a stream of aid to Gaza.
The ICJ ruling — issued earlier Wednesday — asserted Israel has an obligation
under human rights law to allow essential aid to reach Gaza in collaboration
with United Nations agencies. In a post on X shortly after, the State Department
slammed the decision as “corrupt,” defending both Israel’s and the Trump
administration’s actions in the region while also reiterating long-held
allegations tying the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine
Refugees to Hamas.
“As President Trump and Secretary Rubio work tirelessly to bring peace to the
region, this so-called ‘court’ issues a nakedly politicized non-binding
‘advisory opinion’ unfairly bashes Israel and gives UNRWA a free pass for its
deep entanglement with and material support for Hamas terrorism,” the State
Department wrote in a statement.
“This ICJ’s ongoing abuse of its advisory opinion discretion suggests that it is
nothing more than a partisan political tool, which can be weaponized against
Americans,” the agency continued.
The Trump administration has looked to sever ties with UNRWA due to claims that
some of its members were involved in the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks against
Israel.
The ICJ found Wednesday that Israel “has not substantiated its allegations that
a significant part of UNRWA employees ‘are members of Hamas … or other terrorist
factions.’” In Wednesday’s ruling, the court said the UN’s Office of Internal
Oversight Services had investigated 18 UNRWA staff members, with the cooperation
of Israel, and dismissed nine members who “might have been involved” in the
attack.
The court said investigators “found either no or insufficient evidence to
support the involvement of the other ten investigated persons.”
The court also demanded Israel “co-operate in good faith” with the United
Nations by providing assistance to the region.
“The State of Israel has an obligation under international human rights law to
respect, protect and fulfill the human rights of the population of the Occupied
Palestinian Territory, including through the presence and activities of the
United Nations, other international organizations and third States, in and in
relation to the Occupied Palestinian Territory,” the court wrote.
The court’s advisory opinion outlines other obligations Israel must adhere to as
the country continues to take steps toward ending the war, like protecting
access to medical services, prohibiting forcible deportations from the region
and prohibiting the use of starvation of civilians as “a method of warfare.”
Last week, as the leaders of other Western nations used their trips to the
United Nations to announce recognition of a Palestinian state, President Donald
Trump was able to do little but watch disapprovingly. But now that a question
about Israel is coming to the fore in a very different international
organization, Trump finds himself with potentially much more power.
Next week, the executive committee of soccer’s European governing body UEFA
could vote to suspend Israel from the continental federation where its teams
have competed internationally since the 1990s. Dozens of UEFA members have
encouraged the organization to reconsider Israel’s standing, which could begin a
process of effectively banishing the country entirely from international soccer,
much as UEFA and its global analogue FIFA did in 2022 with Russia after its
invasion of Ukraine.
Trump, who has proposed undoing the Russian ban as part of a potential
resolution to its war with Ukraine, now may be the only world leader with the
influence to keep Israel from the same fate.
It is an unanticipated source of influence for Trump in his second term, derived
entirely from the United States’ temporary position as the primary host of next
summer’s World Cup. “We will absolutely work to fully stop any effort to attempt
to ban Israel’s national soccer team from the World Cup,” a State Department
spokesperson told POLITICO.
Trump has dangled the ability to compete as a possible reward for Russia to end
its war in Ukraine and is expected to enforce his antagonistic posture toward
Iran by blocking the country’s fans from traveling into the U.S. to cheer on
their team. Some prominent Brazilians fear his administration will limit visas
to spectators or government officials from their nation, too, as a way of
gaining an upper hand in trade negotiations.
“We know soccer is so important to so many countries all around the world,”
White House FIFA World Cup Taskforce head Andrew Giuliani told POLITICO last
month. “The president knows that better than anybody, and I think he’s willing
to utilize whatever he has to to actually create peace around the world.”
SWITCH OF PLAY
When FIFA awarded the United States co-hosting duties for the 2026 tournament,
Trump celebrated it as personal affirmation.
“I fought very hard to get it in the U.S., Mexico and Canada,” he said in June
2018. “We are very honored to be chosen.”
But Trump did not expect to be in office when the tournament took place in the
summer of 2026. Now that it is months away, Trump is finding that being at the
center of the world’s preeminent sporting event — and the practical and symbolic
power that accompanies it — provides him a new, unexpected tool to use to
advance American interests.
Trump has grasped for leverage in international negotiations wherever he can
find it, often mixing issues traditional diplomats would keep at a distance.
He threatened to impose tariffs on French wine unless the country cut its tax on
digital services, and on all imports from Mexico if it did not curb outbound
migration. He floated intervening in the prosecution of a Huawei executive to
help secure a trade deal with China.
Trump expressed a willingness to mix sports and diplomacy in May, when he
learned during the inaugural meeting of his White House task force that Russia
was forbidden from participating in the tournament. The country had been under a
joint ban from FIFA and UEFA, dating from the early days of the Ukraine invasion
in February 2022, which excluded Russian teams from all international
competition. (Those policies have since been relaxed to permit youth teams to
compete under certain conditions.)
Trump suggested that allowing Russia to compete again “could be a good
incentive” for the country to end the war, a top diplomatic priority that
continues to elude and frustrate Trump.
“We want to get them to stop,” said Trump, sitting next to FIFA President Gianni
Infantino. “Five thousand young people a week are being killed. That’s not even
believable.”
During another White House visit by Infantino three months later, Trump again
invoked Vladimir Putin, this time brandishing a photograph of the two men
together in an attempt to spur Russia’s president to resume negotiations over a
possible truce.
“He’s been very respectful of me and of our country, but not so respectful of
others,” Trump said in the Oval Office, with the World Cup trophy at his side.
“He may be coming and he might not, depending on what happens. We have a lot of
things coming in the next couple of weeks!”
A senior White House official granted anonymity to discuss Trump’s thinking on
the World Cup said that the president’s priority is to showcase American
ingenuity, spotlight domestic infrastructure and highlight the economic impact
of his policies on the country’s cities — not to use tournament plans as
leverage in other negotiations. But if they yield progress toward ending wars as
a byproduct, the official said, Trump would happily accept it.
James Talarico on immigration, his faith, and how Democrats are getting it wrong
Much of Trump’s new influence comes from his close personal rapport with
Infantino, who has spent significant time ingratiating himself with American
political figures and raising his public profile. He has met with Trump at least
a dozen times and traveled the country on a campaign-style tour of host cities
for the World Cup and this year’s Club World Cup.
Now the State Department may be counting on that relationship, as the Trump
administration tries to aid an ally losing support from other Western countries
from also losing its position on the soccer field.
THE WANDERING TEAM
Since Israel’s founding in 1948, the country has struggled to find a permanent
home in the governing structure of international soccer.
Unlike most national teams, which fight for World Cup places against other teams
on their continent, Israel is functionally unable to play against its neighbors
due to an Arab League boycott in place since the country’s 1948 founding.
(Israel won its sole major international trophy, the 1964 Asian Cup, only after
11 of the 15 other competitors withdrew.)
After a brief period competing as a far-flung outlier in the Oceania Football
Confederation, Israel joined the Union of European Football Associations in
1991. Instead of traveling to Beirut or Kuala Lumpur for foreign matches,
Israeli players are now more likely to end up in Dublin or Athens.
That has subjected Israel to new political pressures since the Hamas attacks of
Oct. 7, 2023, and its military response. Then, citing security concerns,
UEFA decided to indefinitely relocate all international matches from Israel,
forcing the country’s teams to play in neutral locations overseas. The country
has played its home matches for World Cup qualifying in Hungary.
The situation has grown even more complicated as European public opinion has
turned aggressively against Israel amid its siege of Gaza. Many European clubs
no longer want to host Israeli squads in continent-wide tournaments. When the
Israeli national team has traveled to play qualifying matches in other
countries, some national governments have imposed travel restrictions on
players, while others limited stadium attendance due to security concerns.
The national team, which remains in contention to reach next year’s World Cup,
now faces two crucial matches next month in countries whose soccer leadership
have been critical of its actions in Gaza. Italy’s federation president has
said “there is nobody who could be indifferent to this feeling of suffering and
pain,” while the Norwegian Football Federation announced in August that it would
donate proceeds from the match to organizations delivering aid in Gaza.
“Neither we nor other organizations can remain indifferent to the humanitarian
suffering and disproportionate attacks that the civilian population in Gaza has
been subjected to for a long time,” federation president Lise Klaveness said
then.
Well over half of UEFA’s 55 member associations have called on its leadership to
take action against Israel, a high-ranking UEFA official told POLITICO,
prompting ongoing discussions within soccer’s governing body about how to deal
with Israeli clubs and the national team. UEFA’s executive committee could vote
to suspend Israeli club teams from European club tournaments. Maccabi Tel Aviv
saw its Europa League match last week in Thessaloniki, Greece, met with
protesters carrying a banner that said GENOCIDE.
UEFA officials, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, justified
the discussions to boot Israel from continental competitions by citing security
concerns. “We are responsible for the safety of fans and players in the
stadiums,” one representative said, noting that match organizers “fear
fatalities.”
A UEFA decision to suspend Israeli club teams could provoke a similar campaign
forcing FIFA to reconsider the place of the country’s national team in World Cup
qualifying. A State Department statement said the U.S. government would work to
block any “attempt to ban Israel’s national soccer team from the World Cup,” but
it did not address European club competitions under UEFA’s purview.
If the United States were not hosting next year’s tournament, it would be just
one of 208 member nations in FIFA — a weaker position than it has in the United
Nations, where at least the U.S. can wield a security-council veto to relieve
pressure on Israel. (It did so again this month to block a draft
resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza.) But Infantino is highly motivated
to keep Trump happy as a way to ensure preparations for next summer’s
tournament proceed with full federal support.
It is unclear whether Trump has personally appealed on Israel’s behalf to
Infantino, who has asked UEFA’s President Aleksander Čeferin to approach the
matter with patience, according to a European soccer official, citing the
possibility that a peace deal between Israel and Hamas could moot the question.
“It’s looking like we have a deal on Gaza, and we’ll let you know. I think it’s
a deal that will get the hostages back. It’s going to be a deal that will end
the war,” Trump told reporters before departing the White House on Friday.
EVERYWHERE YOU WANT TO BE
Trump’s willingness to commingle the World Cup with his other diplomatic
challenges is winning attention worldwide from those who think he could wield
the easiest power at his disposal — to control who enters the United States
during the five-week tournament — as a cudgel.
That power was on display around last week’s United Nations General Assembly,
when Trump’s administration used it to punish representatives of countries
vexing his foreign-policy agenda, several of which have qualified for a place in
the World Cup. A visa issued to Brazilian Health Minister Alexandre Padilha
circumscribed his movements to the U.N. headquarters and a few blocks around his
hotel, while Iranian diplomats were barred from shopping at Costco and Sam’s
Club without State Department permission. On Friday, the State
Department announced it was revoking the visa of Colombian President Gustavo
Petro after he spoke at a pro-Palestinian gathering while in New York.
Iran is among the 12 countries whose citizens face a total travel ban under an
executive order Trump signed in June. Two others, Equatorial Guinea and Haiti,
could still qualify for the World Cup. (The ban also partially restricts travel
from another seven countries, none of which are still in contention for a
tournament spot.)
Under the order, Iranian fans will be barred from the United States next summer,
despite historical precedent in which World Cup hosts allow ticketholders free
border entry. “You’ll have an issue with [visas for] Iran,” Giuliani told
POLITICO.
Although the travel ban includes an exemption for athletes, coaches and
essential personnel participating in “major sporting events,” including the
World Cup, that carveout does not extend to fans. American authorities will
still have to approve visas for heads of state, business leaders and other
prominent officials hoping to cheer on their teams.
“There are other conversations [about Iran] that are teed up for the president
and Secretary Kristi Noem and Vice President [JD] Vance, which we’ll be
discussing here in the fall,” Giuliani said, in an interview at the Department
of Homeland Security’s headquarters.
Brazilian officials worry that the administration could weaponize World Cup
visas for the country’s sports fans, part of a spiraling conflict with its
origins in a prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the aggressive
enforcement by the country’s election regulator against online political speech.
CNN reported in July that Trump is actively considering blocking visas for
Brazilian fans. Since then, the State Department has imposed visa restrictions
on Brazilian judicial officials and their families and Trump has imposed a 50
percent tariff rate as payback for what he characterizes as a “witch hunt” of
Bolsonaro.
A Brazilian government official cautioned that it was unlikely that American
consular officials would deny visas en masse for Brazilian nationals wanting to
attend the World Cup and noted that Brazilians already encounter lengthy delays
in obtaining visas to enter the United States.
But the Trump administration has already demonstrated a willingness to interfere
with international sporting events in the service of its diplomatic aims. Iran’s
men’s team was denied visas to compete in next month’s FIP Arena Polo World
Championship in Virginia, reported the Tehran Times this week, much as
a Venezuelan Little League team and Cuban women’s volleyball team were earlier
in the year.
Those events foreshadow the higher-stakes flashpoints that could arise as the
list of 48 countries that will send teams to the World Cup is finalized this
fall. Among those that have already secured a place are some where Trump might
be looking for any possible geopolitical edge.
The U.S. is still trying to wrangle a new trade deal with South Korea, for
example, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the United States
“stands ready to do what is needed” as it works to boost Argentina’s President
Javier Milei’s fortunes ahead of an Oct. 26 election.
“Many times, it’s sports diplomacy that creates opportunities for foreign
leaders who might not see other things eye to eye, to actually sit down,”
Giuliani said. “By the time the World Cup kicks off next June, hopefully we have
some of these foreign wars solved.”