DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — We had been laughing about a dismal performance in this year’s edition of the Italian Sanremo song contest — when we heard a big bang outside. The boom triggered an alarm in our modernist apartment block beside Dubai’s towering Burj Khalifa, and the phones all began buzzing with an emergency government notification: “Please remain indoors in safe areas.” We grabbed our passports, bolted down the staircase and hunkered down in the garage. There are no air raid shelters in Dubai. During an almost sleepless night, I checked my phone every hour — giving me a slight glimpse of what ordinary Ukrainians have endured for more than four years. Until now, none of us — presumably not even Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who rushed back to Rome in a military plane from Dubai on Sunday — could have imagined having to seek shelter in this glitzy resort town, which has monetized its reputation as a safe harbor from tensions in the Middle East.   My plans on Saturday to fly to Nicosia, Cyprus to cover an upcoming meeting of EU ministers after stopping over in Dubai to visit a friend were suddenly obliterated by Iran’s unprecedented strikes on Gulf countries including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The UAE’s Ministry of Defense said that within 24 hours the country was attacked by 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 541 drones — most of which were destroyed by their air defenses. Debris from those intercepts hit Dubai Airport and two luxurious hotels, Fairmont The Palm and Burj Al Arab. It soon became clear that Dubai’s Western expats — an exotic mix of high-flying corporates, influencers and holiday-goers like me — were poorly equipped to handle a crisis. Few people chose to take the stairs — a no-brainer when drones and missiles are flying above the city. Several residents waited in the reception area with their chihuahuas and cats — the sound of barking and meows being drowned out by the roar of sports cars heading for nearby highways. “Where on earth are they going?” I wondered. We had dismissed the well-intended advice of an acquaintance to drive for more than two hours to Oman — a theoretical safe haven, until it was targeted by Iranian strikes the following morning. On Sunday, Dubai’s usually choked highways were empty as ominous blasts continued to echo throughout the city. Buzzy Kite Beach — which had been bustling with bulked-up joggers before the conflict erupted — emptied the following day. Any unexpected noise drew panicked reactions from the few beach-goers who continued to order avocado toasts. Buzzy Kite Beach — which had been bustling with bulked-up joggers before the conflict erupted — emptied the following day. | Andrew Aitchison/AFP via Getty Images Despite the unease, the legions of people who deliver food on tiny mopeds never stopped working and continued to supply the homebound population. They reminded me of the nurses and doctors who kept the medical system afloat during the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s too early to tell whether Iran’s attack will permanently damage Dubai’s image as a safe and trendy melting pot. “Iran did not strike a military base in Dubai. It struck the idea of Dubai,” the analyst and author Shanaka Anslem Perera wrote on X. “Dubai is a financial thesis. It is the proposition that you can build a global city at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and insulate it from the region’s violence.” But as in every crisis, Dubai’s sharky financiers, at least, see an opportunity. “It’s the right time to buy property, prices will massively go down after the attacks,” a young consultant enthused to me as I tried to blink away the sleepless night.

LONDON —New Labour spin doctor Alastair Campbell famously said “we don’t do God.” Reform UK is taking a different approach. Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing force, which leads in the opinion polls, put religion at the heart of its political agenda on Monday, promising to “protect the Christian heritage of Britain.” In a speech on the south coast of England, Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesperson, said: “A nation without a culture is not a nation at all. It’s just an economic zone, a shopping mall with a flag waiting to be exploited.” Yusuf earlier told the Times newspaper that Christianity is “core to the history and the DNA of the country,” and renewing the nation’s religious faith is essential for tackling the “crisis of meaning culturally.” He told the paper Britain is losing its Christian values because of the “sheer quantities of people that came to the country in a short period of time.” If it wins power, Reform UK would grant immediate and automatic listed status to churches, meaning their character could not be altered. The buildings would also be prevented from being converted into places of worship for other religions, like mosques, Yusuf said. NOT DOING GOD Religious faith is a topic U.K. politicians usually try to avoid. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is an atheist, while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is agnostic — though she said she still feels like a “cultural Christian.” Tim Farron resigned as Lib Dem leader after the 2017 general election because he felt unable to square “being a good leader and a good Christian”. Speaking in Dover on Monday, Yusuf, a Muslim, said: “I can see that so much of what makes Britain such a great country is associated and irrevocably derived from Britain’s Christian heritage. I think that’s a very popular view. I hear that all the time from people.” Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, challenged Reform’s claim that migrants are undermining Christianity. “There’s an irony that it is Britain’s new migrant populations that are slowing the decline of church-going in Britain,” he said in a statement to POLITICO. Less than half (46.2 percent) of the U.K. population described themselves as Christian in the 2021 England and Wales census, down from 59.3 percent in 2011. More than a third (37.2 percent) said they had no religion, up from 25.2 percent 10 years earlier. Humanists UK Chief Executive Andrew Copson criticized Reform for failing to recognize the growing number of non-Christians in Britain. “Most of us in Britain aren’t Christian in our beliefs, practices, or identity. Although Christianity has contributed to our heritage, pre-Christian, non-Christian, and post-Christian influences have been just as important,” he said in a statement. Reform UK also announced Monday it would proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist organizations. It will also overhaul the Prevent program, which aims to stop people from becoming terrorists. A new group linking the church and Reform UK called the Christian Fellowship for Reform was launched last year. Earlier this month, James Orr, a Christian and associate professor of philosophy of religion at the University of Cambridge, was appointed Reform UK’s head of policy. Sam Blewett contributed reporting

Belgium’s Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot has summoned Bill White, the U.S. ambassador to the country, over his comments accusing Belgium of antisemitism and lashing out against its health minister. “Any suggestion that Belgium is antisemitic is false, offensive, and unacceptable. Belgium condemns antisemitism with the greatest firmness,” Prévot wrote Monday evening in a long post on X, calling White’s statements “unacceptable.” “Personal attacks against a Belgian minister and interference in judicial matters violate basic diplomatic norms … The Ambassador has been immediately summoned for a meeting this Tuesday,” Prévot continued. White on Monday criticized Belgium’s handling of a case in Antwerp where three mohels — Jewish men who perform ritual circumcision — were placed under judicial investigation for allegedly carrying out procedures without a doctor being present. He also appeared to pressure Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke to intervene in the case. “TO BELGIUM, SPECIFICALLY YOU MUST DROP THE RIDICULOUS AND ANTI SEMITIC “PROSECUTION” NOW OF THE 3 JEWISH RELIGIOUS FIGURES (MOHELS) IN ANTWERP!” White wrote in his post. White then turned on Vandenbroucke, calling him “very rude” and claiming that at their first encounter, Vandenbroucke had refused to shake his hand or pose for a photograph together in his conference room. “You must make a legal provision to allow Jewish religious MOHELS to perform their duties here in Belgium,” White said. “Take action NOW! The world is watching. America is counting on you to do the right thing. Frank, you should do it NOW so this case ends!” After Prévot expressed his disapproval on social media, White responded with another long post. “In NO way, shape or form have we ever suggested that a political person in the Gov’t should interfere in a judicial case. That said, the case should be immediately dropped,” White wrote, adding that “it is ABSOLUTELY an issue of antisemitism.” “You either have to make a change to the procedural accreditation or you have to call prosecution of these three beautiful religiously qualified and wonderful men anti-semeitc,” he continued, misspelling the last word. White then lashed out at Vandenbroucke again. “He was very rude and was quite obnoxious. I was told he does not like my great President,” he wrote. Belgian legislation mandates that all medical procedures be performed by licensed doctors, while mohels are usually not licensed. Some 60 Jewish leaders wrote a letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last May, urging the EU to condemn Belgium after police raided the homes of several mohels in Antwerp.

MUNICH — After three days of serious politics, POLITICO is here to lighten the mood. The 2026 Munich Security Conference saw Europeans forced to admit the relationship with Washington is on the rocks and that World War III is closer than ever. Our backhanded awards salute the politicians, power players and public figures who distinguished themselves in less existential ways. Here are POLITICO’s nine awards for the most memorable (and meme-able) moments. CHEEKIEST FASHION MOMENT — WOLFGANG ISCHINGER On this wintery February weekend, Munich Security Conference Chairman Wolfgang Ischinger began his speech by donning sunglasses — now officially the hottest summit accessory of 2026. It was a jovial homage to French President Emmanuel Macron, who set tongues wagging at the World Economic Forum last month when he wore a slick pair of shades on stage to hide a burst blood vessel in one eye. In the parlance of the internet, Ischinger mogged Macron. An honorable mention in the fashion category goes to U.S. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who — during a session on stage at the POLITICO Pub — realized he was wearing Abraham Lincoln socks. Make of that what you will. “I didn’t pay attention to the socks that I was putting on this morning but it occurs to me that [they feature] President Abraham Lincoln, who presided over our Civil War,” he said, adding the choice was unintentional. MOST COLORFUL LANGUAGE — LINDSEY GRAHAM “Who gives a shit who owns Greenland?” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham wondered as he sat alongside Tillis for a conversation at the POLITICO Pub, before answering his own question: “I don’t.”  Only a few years ago such language from a senior American lawmaker would have been unthinkable. It wasn’t just the coarse speech that caught our ear, however, with the Republican lawmaker issuing multiple zingers. “If you’re nervous — have a beer, go see a doctor,” he said in reference to European anxiety about Trump’s rhetoric on NATO and Greenland. “Every now and again someone in history comes along who’s NUTS,” the Trump ally said about Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “Who gives a shit who owns Greenland?” asked U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. | Baldo Sciacca for POLITICO And this gem: “Nobody washes a rental car” — an attempt to explain why Trump feels so strongly that the U.S. needs to own Greenland. WORST POKER FACE — KAJA KALLAS The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, couldn’t contain her skepticism when U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz started bragging about Washington’s claim to have ended multiple wars. Pursing her lips and puffing out her cheeks, Kallas’ reaction quickly went viral and has come to symbolize European exasperation with the Americans. BIGGEST FIGHT NO. 1 — KAJA KALLAS VS. MIKE WALTZ That testy panel saw Kallas go toe-to-toe with Waltz on everything from Trump’s controversial Board of Peace for Gaza to Washington’s attitude toward its allies. “When, for example, Russia goes to war, they go alone because they don’t have allies; when America goes to wars, then, you know, a lot of us go with you, and we lose our people on the way,” she told Waltz as applause filled the room. “That means you also need us to be this superpower.” She also lambasted Trump’s Board of Peace for its lopsided power structure, arguing it doesn’t treat countries as equals. “That is, I think, the difference [in] how we see the world,” she said, once again pointedly addressing Waltz.  In another eyebrow-raising moment, Waltz gifted the panel a blue baseball cap emblazoned with “Make the UN Great Again,” which Kallas took and set down without a word of thanks. BIGGEST FIGHT NO. 2 — RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI VS. PETR MACINKA Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski schooled Czech Deputy Prime Minister Petr Macinka on the workings of the European Union. Macinka, who represents the populist Motorists’ Party, attacked the EU for not being democratic, alleging there are no connections between voters and Brussels institutions. Sikorski retorted that the European Parliament is democratically elected and that commissioners are chosen by “democratically elected governments.” The killer blow came when Sikorski reminded Macinka that, much like EU commissioners, Czech ministers are also not directly elected. “I don’t say it isn’t a democratic system,” Macinka mumbled as an amused Hillary Clinton looked on. WEIRDEST ANECDOTES — MARK RUTTE NATO chief Mark Rutte made the world squirm last year by using the term “daddy” to refer to Donald Trump. The former Dutch prime minister finally explained himself as he sat down with POLITICO in Munich. “I have to ask: Where did ‘daddy’ come from? Do you have some daddy issues, Mr. Rutte?” POLITICO’s Dasha Burns joked to Rutte at the end of the live interview. Rutte said the gaffe had been unintentional and blamed it on English being his second language. “I said that he sometimes has to be tough. And of course later realized that ‘daddy’ has a lot of connotations,” Rutte said sheepishly. Mark Rutte made the world squirm last year by using the nickname “daddy” to refer to Donald Trump. | Baldo Sciacca for POLITICO In another peculiar moment, Rutte recalled meeting a dog in Ukraine and described in some detail how the canine — who helped emergency services recover bodies from rubble — looked into his eyes and told him that he would never give up. The story was designed to celebrate the fortitude of Ukrainians enduring Russia’s war, but Rutte’s zoophilist telepathy (whether he was being serious or not) just sounded weird. BIGGEST EGO BOOST — ALEXANDER STUBB MSC has its own small bookstore located just off the “smoking corridor,” a walkway between the summit hotels linking the Bayerischer Hof and Rosewood. The book flying off the shelves was the “Triangle of Power” by Finnish President Alexander Stubb. (Ominously, the only classic on sale was George Orwell’s 1984.) Stubb — an occasional golf buddy of the U.S. president and one of Europe’s Trump whisperers — was keen to use his time on stage at the conference to emphasize that American foreign policy has changed. “I think we brought down the temperature in the transatlantic relationship,” Stubb said, noting he had spoken with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for roughly half an hour after Rubio’s main stage speech. But Stubb told POLITICO that Europeans should have a clear-eyed understanding of the Trump-led American shift, including the new hierarchy among Washington’s priorities: “No. 1 is the Western Hemisphere, No. 2 is the Indo-Pacific, and then No. 3 is Europe.” MOST NOTABLE DISS — GIORGIA MELONI The Italian prime minister wasn’t present at this weekend’s conference, instead embarking on a diplomatic tour of Africa — a notable absence given her efforts to carve out a place on the world’s diplomatic stage. That didn’t stop her from being forced to admit she didn’t see eye to eye with some European leaders that were present — telling Italian media she doesn’t agree with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s declaration that “the culture war of the MAGA movement” is not European. Meloni’s absence was also a reminder of where the real power lies in European defense. While Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Czech Foreign Minister Petr Macinka did get on stage, much of the attention was reserved for the old military powers: the U.K., France and Germany. BIGGEST STANDING OVATION — MARCO RUBIO U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio used his Munich keynote to rhapsodize about the shared history between America and Europe. “We belong together,” he said. The fact that his tone was more conciliatory than U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech last year at the same venue earned him a standing ovation. That adulation started to look a little awkward less than 24 hours later when European leaders digested the actual words — Rubio having repeated several MAGA criticisms of globalization and migration during his speech. In a sign of how bad the transatlantic relationship has become, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insisted she was “very much reassured” by Rubio’s address, calling him a “good friend” and a “strong ally.”

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu this weekend announced his working plan for the rest of his mandate and made clear once again that he is not planning to run in next year’s presidential election. “2026 will be a productive year for the French. We will focus on the essentials,” Lecornu wrote in a social media post on Sunday. “On these issues, we cannot wait until the presidential election,” he added. After finally passing the 2026 budget last week, Lecornu now wants to deal with pressing files that remained on hold because of prolonged budget debates. In an interview with several French local newspapers published on Saturday, Lecornu announced that in the coming days his government will finally present the long-overdue energy programming law, a text that outlines France’s energy strategy until 2035 and which is coming more than two years late. Lecornu said that the text would be adopted as a government decree by the end of the week. It will confirm the construction of six new nuclear reactors, with the option of building eight more, and set the goal of having 60 percent of energy consumption coming from electricity by 2030. The prime minister also announced an update to the country’s multi-annual military programming law to reflect a €6.5 billion increase in defense spending in 2026. Lecornu’s priorities include a reform to redefine the division of power between the central government, measures to fight the shortage of doctors and housing. The government on Sunday adopted new measures to fight fraud in the the existing health-care assistance mechanism for irregular foreigners — which the far-right National Rally wants to abolish. As the race for succeeding to French President Emmanuel Macron in 2027 heats up, Lecornu repeated that he was not planning to run. He also confirmed that he will conduct a government reshuffle before the end of the so-called reserve period ahead of France’s municipal election, which means by Feb. 22. Culture Minister Rachida Dati, who is running for mayor of Paris, is expected to quit the government together with other ministers.

Israel reopened the Rafah crossing from Gaza to Egypt on Sunday in a limited capacity after two years, allowing only foot traffic, as violence continued across the Gaza Strip. The move comes amid fresh bloodshed in the enclave, with Gaza’s civil defense agency reporting dozens killed in Israeli strikes on Saturday. The Israel Defense Forces said it was responding to ceasefire violations. Around 80,000 Palestinians who left Gaza during Israel’s war on the enclave are seeking to return through the crossing from Egypt, a Palestinian official told Al Jazeera. At the same time, Israel announced it was terminating the operations of Doctors Without Borders in Gaza, accusing the group of failing to submit lists of its Palestinian staff — a requirement Israeli authorities say applies to all aid organizations in the territory. Israel’s Ministry of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism alleged that two employees had ties to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, accusations the medical charity has strongly denied. The ministry said the group must halt its work and leave Gaza by Feb. 28. The tightly controlled reopening of Rafah — alongside the expulsion of a major humanitarian actor — is likely to intensify scrutiny of Israel’s handling of civilian access and aid as the conflict drags on.

The world has been rewired. The post-war order is fragmenting, public pessimism has reached crisis levels, and the gap between elite and public opinion is wider than ever. The FGS Global Radar 2026 — drawing on 175 interviews with senior leaders and polling nearly 20,000 people across 27 democracies — maps the new terrain. For leaders gathering in Davos this week, understanding it is critical. Via FGS Global Previous Radar reports were defined by volatility and uncertainty. These remain constants. But in 2026, the shape of the world is now more clearly defined — and the question for leaders is whether they can see it clearly enough to navigate it. A rewired world The multilateral consensus in place since World War II — guided by international institutions and liberal democracies — is being rewritten. Those institutions are weakening, with strongman leaders increasingly calling the shots within their own spheres of influence. > The post-war rules-based order is fragmenting into spheres of influence, with > transactional relationships and strongman leadership supplanting shared > values. As one expert put it: “The post-war rules-based order is fragmenting into spheres of influence, with transactional relationships and strongman leadership supplanting shared values.” The United States and China are now in fierce, direct competition for dominance — across trade, technology and an emerging space race. Gray zone conflict will be common. The rest of the world is having to align accordingly, navigating constantly shifting sands. For those gathering in Davos, the implications are stark. We are shifting from “What are our shared principles?” to “What can you do for me?” As another expert observed: “America doesn’t have anyone’s back anymore.” Our polling finds that seven in 10 people want their country to be more assertive of national interests, even if this creates friction with others. Nationalist sentiment is ascending. And Europe? “If Trump and Xi are talking, Europe isn’t even at the table.” The elite-public divide This year’s Radar report reveals something leaders at Davos must confront directly: a profound and widening gap between elite opinion and public sentiment. Ideas widely favored by leaders — letting artificial intelligence flourish, cutting spending, incentivizing entrepreneurs — are roundly opposed by voters. More troubling still, the public is susceptible to populist claims that difficult trade-offs don’t need to be made. In our poll, most people agreed: “There are clear and easy solutions to the big challenges facing the country, if only we had better political leaders.” > We are shifting from ‘What are our shared principles?’ to ‘What can you do for > me?’ We are living in a K-shaped world. The winners are high-income earners and technology industries. Those on lower incomes and in traditional sectors are struggling. Most people across the 27 countries polled expect to be worse off next year; only those on high incomes believe they will be better off. The cost of living remains the most important issue across generations and political affiliations. This feeds directly into attitudes on tax. Large majorities want more of the burden borne by business and the wealthy. Sixty-four percent support a wealth tax. These are not fringe positions — they are mainstream sentiment across developed democracies. The generational divide compounds the problem. Fifty-four percent of 18-34 year olds believe too much support goes to the elderly. Fifty percent of over-55s think too much goes to the young. Each generation feels the other is getting a better deal. And across all age groups, 73 percent believe life will be harder for the next generation. Pessimism at crisis levels Public confidence has been eroding for years. But the mood has now intensified to a crisis point. Across all 27 countries polled, 76 percent say their country feels divided. Sixty-eight percent believe their political system is failing and needs fundamental reform. Sixty-two percent feel their national identity is disappearing. > Pessimism on this scale, replicated across democracies, isn’t normal — and may > not be sustainable. To be clear: pessimism on this scale, replicated across democracies, isn’t normal — and may not be sustainable. It is fueling political instability and populism. Systems and governments that appear analog in a digital world, and fail to deliver better outcomes, will increasingly be challenged. Trust in traditional institutions continues to collapse. Sixty-one percent believe mainstream media have their own agenda and cannot be trusted. The hierarchy of trust is stark: medical doctors at 85 percent, big business at 41 percent, ChatGPT at 34 percent and politicians at just 22 percent. Perhaps most striking: 47 percent of people report feeling disconnected from society. When presented with the Matrix dilemma — a choice between blissful ignorance and complex reality — a quarter chose ignorance. Among Gen Z, it rises to over a third. Disengagement is becoming a generational norm. Europe’s pivotal moment For European leaders, the report offers both warning and opportunity. Our polling finds overwhelming support — 70-80 percent — in every EU country for major reform and stronger control of national borders. The Draghi and Letta reports are seen as offering the most coherent reform roadmap in years, but implementation is stuck at just 11 percent. As one expert noted: “Things are bad — but not so bad people are willing to be pushed through a pain barrier.” That may not remain true for long. What leaders must do The Radar concludes with a clear message: in a rewired world, long-term strategy matters more than ever. “If you haven’t got a strategy, you’re lost,” said one leader we interviewed. But strategy alone is not enough. The next most cited quality was agility — the ability to move fast and adapt. One compelling analogy: leaders need satellite navigation. Be clear on your destination, but flexible on how you get there. “You need a North Star, but like a GPS, you’re going to have to re-route — roadworks, delays, traffic jams.” Authenticity emerged as essential. “Authenticity by definition is infinitely durable. You are what you are.” And finally, storytelling: “Social media divides us, hates complexity, kills concentration. Nothing sticks. Leaders must repeat their message relentlessly.” Strategy. Agility. Authenticity. Storytelling. These are what 2026 demands. Download the full FGS Global Radar 2026 report here: https://fgsglobal.com/radar.

President Donald Trump has told his health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to consider aligning the U.S. vaccination schedule with those in Europe, where many countries recommend fewer vaccines. Kennedy has taken up the charge with gusto and is considering advising parents to follow Denmark’s childhood schedule rather than America’s. Many who specialize in vaccination and public health say that would be a mistake. While wealthy European countries do health care comparatively well, they say, there are lots of reasons Americans are recommended more shots than Europeans, ranging from different levels of access to health care to different levels of disease. “If [Kennedy] would like to get us universal health care, then maybe we can have a conversation about having the schedule adjusted,” Demetre Daskalakis, who led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases before resigning in protest in August, told POLITICO. Children, especially those who live in poor and rural areas, would be at greater risk for severe disease and death if the U.S. were to drop shots from its schedule, Daskalakis said. Denmark, for instance, advises immunizing against only 10 of the 18 diseases American children were historically recommended immunizations against. It excludes shots for potentially serious infections, including hepatitis A and B, meningitis and respiratory syncytial virus. Under Kennedy, the government has already changed its hepatitis B vaccine recommendations for newborns this year, even as critics warned the new advice could lead to more chronic infections, liver problems and cancer. The health department points out that the new guidance on hepatitis B — that mothers who test negative for the virus may skip giving their newborn a shot in the hospital — now align more closely with most countries in Europe. Public health experts and others critical of the move say slimmer European vaccine schedules are a cost-saving measure and a privilege afforded to healthier societies, not a tactic to protect kids from vaccine injuries. Kennedy’s interest in modeling the U.S. vaccine schedule after Europe, they point out, is underpinned by his belief that some childhood vaccines are unsafe and that American kids get too many too young. Kennedy’s safety concerns don’t align with the rationale underpinning the approach in Europe, where the consensus is that childhood vaccines are safe. Wealthy European countries in many cases eschew vaccines based on a risk-benefit calculus that doesn’t hold in America. European kids often don’t get certain shots because it would prevent a very small number of cases — like hepatitis B — or because the disease is rarely serious for them, such as Covid-19 and chickenpox. But since the U.S. doesn’t have universal access to care, vaccinating provides more return on investment, experts say. “We just have a tradition to wait a little bit” before adding vaccines to government programs, said Johanna Rubin, a pediatrician and vaccine expert for Sweden’s health agency. Swedish children are advised to get vaccines for 11 diseases before they turn 18. Rubin cited the need to verify the shots’ efficacy and the high cost of new vaccines as reasons Sweden moves slowly to add to its schedule. “It has to go through the health economical model,” she said. VACCINE SAFETY’S NOT THE ISSUE Martin Kulldorff, a Swedish native and former Harvard Medical School professor who led Kennedy’s vaccine advisory panel until this month, pointed to that country’s approach to vaccination and public health in an interview with POLITICO earlier this year. Before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this month dropped its recommendation that children of mothers who test negative for hepatitis B receive a vaccine within a day of birth, Kulldorff cited Sweden’s policy. “In Sweden, the recommendation is that you only do that if the mother has the infection. That’s the case in most European countries,” he said. “You could have a discussion whether one or the other is more reasonable.” The U.S. policy, as of Dec. 16, more closely resembles Sweden’s, with hepatitis B-negative mothers no longer urged to vaccinate their newborns against the virus at birth. But Sweden’s public health agency recommends that all infants be vaccinated, and the country’s regional governments subsidize those doses, which are administered as combination shots targeting six diseases starting at 3 months. Public health experts warn that even children of hepatitis B-negative mothers could catch the virus from others via contact with caregivers who are positive or shared household items. The prevalence of chronic hepatitis B in the U.S. is 6.1 percent compared to 0.3 percent in Sweden, according to the Coalition for Global Hepatitis Elimination, a Georgia-based nonprofit which receives funding from pharmaceutical companies, the CDC and the National Institutes of Health, among others. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the U.S. has taken a more comprehensive approach to vaccination, in part because its population is sicker than that of some Western European countries, and the impact of contracting a disease could be more detrimental. Osterholm pointed to the Covid pandemic as an example. By May 2022, the U.S. had seen more than 1 million people die. Other high-income countries — though much smaller — had more success controlling mortality, he said. “People tried to attribute [the disparity] to social, political issues, but no, it was because [peer nations] had so many more people who were actually in low-risk categories for serious illness,” Osterholm said. Kennedy and his advisers also cited European views on Covid vaccination in the spring when the CDC dropped its universal recommendation, instead advising individuals to talk to their providers about whether to get the shot. Last month, the Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine regulator, Vinay Prasad, linked the deaths of 10 children to Covid vaccination without providing more detailed information about the data behind his assertion. European countries years ago stopped recommending repeat Covid vaccination for children and other groups not considered at risk of becoming severely sick. Covid shots have been linked to rare heart conditions, primarily among young men. European vaccine experts say Covid boosters were not recommended routinely for healthy children in many countries — not because of safety concerns, but because it’s more cost-effective to give them to high-risk groups, such as elderly people or those with health conditions that Covid could make severely sick and put in the hospital. In the U.K., Covid-related hospitalizations and deaths declined significantly after the pandemic, and now are “mostly in the most frail in the population, which has led to more restricted use of the vaccines following the cost-effectiveness principles,” said Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group in the United Kingdom, which works on developing vaccines and was behind AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 shot. Pollard led the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, which advises the U.K. government, for 12 years before stepping down in September. In the U.S., more moves to follow Europe are likely. At a meeting of Kennedy’s vaccine advisers earlier this month, Tracy Beth Høeg, now acting as the FDA’s top drug regulator, pointed to Denmark’s pediatric schedule, which vaccinates for 10 diseases, while questioning whether healthy American children should be subject to more vaccines than their Danish counterparts. Danish kids typically don’t get shots for chickenpox, the flu, hepatitis A and B, meningitis, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus, like American children do, though parents can privately pay for at least some of those vaccines. The country offers free Covid and flu vaccines to high-risk kids. After the vaccine advisory meeting wrapped, Trump said he was on board, directing Kennedy to “fast track” a review of the U.S. vaccine schedule and potentially align it with other developed nations. He cited Denmark, Germany and Japan as countries that recommend fewer shots. Last week, Kennedy came within hours of publicly promoting Denmark’s childhood vaccine schedule as an option for American parents. The announcement was canceled at the last minute after the HHS Office of the General Counsel said it would invite a lawsuit the administration could lose, a senior department official told POLITICO. The notion that the U.S. would drop its vaccine schedule in favor of a European one struck health experts there as odd. Each country’s schedule is based on “the local situation, so the local epidemiology, structure of health care services, available resources, and inevitably, there’s a little bit of political aspect to it as well,” said Erika Duffell, a principal expert on communicable disease prevention and control at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, an EU agency that monitors vaccine schedules across 30 European countries. Vaccine safety isn’t the issue, she said. For example, even though most Europeans don’t get a hepatitis B shot within 24 hours of birth, the previous U.S. recommendation, “there is a consensus that the effectiveness and safety of the vaccine has been confirmed through decades of research” and continuous monitoring, she said. European nations like Denmark and the U.K. have kept new cases of hepatitis B low. Denmark recorded no cases of mother-to-child transmission in 2023, and Britain’s rate of such spread is less than 0.1 percent — though the latter does routinely recommend vaccinating low-risk infants beginning at 2 months of age. European experts point to high levels of testing of pregnant women for hepatitis B and most women having access to prenatal care as the reasons for success in keeping cases low while not vaccinating all newborns. The major differences between the U.S. and the U.K. in their approach to hepatitis B vaccination are lower infection rates and high screening uptake in Britain, plus “a national health system which is able to identify and deliver vaccines to almost all affected pregnancies selectively,” Pollard said. The CDC, when explaining the change in the universal birth dose recommendation, argued the U.S. has the ability to identify nearly all hepatitis B infections during pregnancy because of ”high reliability of prenatal hepatitis B screening,” which some European experts doubt. “If we change a program, we need to prepare the public, we need to prepare the parents and the health care providers, and say where the evidence comes from,” said Pierre Van Damme, the director of the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination at the University of Antwerp in Belgium. He suggested that, if there was convincing evidence, U.S. health authorities could have run a pilot study before changing the recommendation to evaluate screening and the availability of testing at birth in one U.S. state, for example. WHERE EUROPEANS HAVE MORE DISEASE In some cases, European vaccination policies have, despite universal health care, led to more disease. France, Germany and Italy moved from recommending to requiring measles vaccination over the last decade after outbreaks on the continent. The U.S., until recently, had all but eradicated measles through a universal recommendation and school requirements. That’s starting to change. The U.S. is at risk of losing its “measles-elimination” status due to around 2,000 cases this year that originated in a Texas religious community where vaccine uptake is low. The 30 countries in the European Union and the European Economic Area, which have a population of some 450 million people combined, reported more than 35,000 measles cases last year, concentrated in Romania, Austria, Belgium and Ireland. Europe’s comparatively high rate is linked to lower vaccination coverage than the level needed to prevent outbreaks: Only four of the 30 countries reached the 95-percent threshold for the second measles dose in 2024, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Kennedy touted the U.S.’s lower measles rate as a successful effort at containing the sometimes-deadly disease, but experts say the country could soon see a resurgence of infectious diseases due to the vaccine skepticism that grew during the pandemic and that they say Kennedy has fomented. Among kindergarteners, measles vaccine coverage is down 2.7 percentage points as of the 2024-2025 school year, from a peak of 95.2 percent prior to the pandemic, according to CDC data. That drop occurred before Kennedy became health secretary. Kennedy and his advisers blame it on distrust engendered by Covid vaccine mandates imposed by states and President Joe Biden. But Kennedy led an anti-vaccine movement for years before joining the Trump administration, linking shots to autism and other conditions despite scientific evidence to the contrary, and he has continued to question vaccine safety as secretary. In some EU nations, vaccines aren’t compulsory for school entry. Swedish law guarantees the right to education and promotes close consultation between providers and patients. Some governments fear mandates could push away vaccine-hesitant parents who want to talk the recommended shots over with their doctor before giving the vaccines to their children, Rubin explained. In the U.S., states, which have the authority to implement vaccine mandates for school entry, rely on the CDC’s guidance to decide which to require. Vaccine skeptics have pushed the agency to relax some of its recommendations with an eye toward making it easier for American parents to opt out of routine shots. Scandinavian nations maintain high vaccine uptake without mandates thanks to “high trust” in public health systems, Rubin said. In Sweden, she added, nurses typically vaccinate young children at local clinics and provide care for them until they reach school age, which helps build trust among parents. CHICKENPOX Another example of where the U.S. and Europe differ is the chickenpox vaccine. The U.S. was the first country to begin universal vaccination against the common childhood illness in 1995; meanwhile, 13 EU nations broadly recommend the shot. Denmark doesn’t officially track chickenpox — the vaccine isn’t included on its schedule — but estimates 60,000 cases annually in its population of 6 million. The vastly larger U.S. sees fewer than 150,000 cases per year, according to the CDC. Many European countries perceive chickenpox as a benign disease, Van Damme said. “If you have a limited budget for prevention, you will spend usually the money in other preventative interventions, other vaccines than varicella,” he said, referring to the scientific term for chickenpox. But there’s another risk if countries decide to recommend chickenpox vaccination, he explained. If the vaccination level is low, people remain susceptible to the disease, which poses serious risks to unborn babies. If it’s contracted in early pregnancy, chickenpox could trigger congenital varicella syndrome, a rare disorder that causes birth defects. If children aren’t vaccinated against chickenpox, almost all would get the disease by age 10, Van Damme explained. If countries opt for vaccination, they have to ensure robust uptake: vaccinate virtually all children by 10, or risk having big pockets of unvaccinated kids who could contract higher-risk infections later. Europe’s stance toward chickenpox could change soon. Several countries are calculating that widely offering chickenpox vaccines would provide both public health and economic benefits. Britain is adding the shot to its childhood schedule next month. Sweden is expected to green-light it as part of its national program in the coming months. While the public doesn’t see it as a serious disease, pediatricians who see serious cases of chickenpox are advocating for the vaccine, Rubin told POLITICO. “It is very contagious,” she said. “It fulfills all our criteria.” The U.K. change comes after its vaccine advisory committee reviewed new data on disease burden and cost-effectiveness — including a 2022 CDC study of the U.S. program’s first 25 years that also examined the vaccine’s impact on shingles, a painful rash that can occur when the chickenpox virus reactivates years later. Scientists had theorized for years that limiting the virus’ circulation among children could increase the incidence of shingles in older adults by eliminating the “booster” effect of natural exposure, but the U.S. study found that real-world evidence didn’t support that hypothesis.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came within hours of publicly promoting Denmark’s childhood vaccine schedule as an option for American parents — before legal and political concerns got in the way. A senior HHS official told POLITICO that a press conference set for Friday was canceled at the last minute after the HHS Office of the General Counsel said it would invite a lawsuit the administration could lose. A second senior official at the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed the press conference, which HHS had publicly announced, was to be about the Danish schedule. The second official said it was canceled because it was deemed politically risky. Billed as an “announcement regarding children’s health,” Kennedy was to appear alongside his top agency heads and Tracy Beth Høeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator. Høeg touted the Danish schedule at a vaccine advisory committee meeting earlier this month. HHS canceled the event Thursday evening, hours after announcing it. Andrew Nixon, an HHS spokesperson, called accounts of the cancellation that didn’t come directly from the department “pure speculation” in a statement. HHS officials skeptical of moving to the Danish schedule, which recommends immunization for only 10 of the 17 diseases on the U.S. list, were relieved it was never publicly recommended, the first official said. The internal confusion and disagreement follow similar management bungling within HHS’ Food and Drug Administration that has frustrated the White House. On Dec. 5, President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum titled “Aligning United States Core Childhood Vaccine Recommendations with Best Practices from Peer, Developed Countries.” The memorandum directed HHS and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of its subagencies that sets the vaccine schedule, to review peer-country best practices for vaccines recommended for all children and, if those practices were judged superior, to update the U.S. schedule while preserving access to vaccines already available. In the memorandum, Trump mentioned Denmark, Japan and Germany as examples of countries that recommend fewer shots than the U.S. According to the first official, Kennedy and his top aide, Stefanie Spear, helped sell the peer-country framing to West Wing officials as the clearest way to turn internal vaccine skepticism into a signed White House directive. Spear is Kennedy’s principal deputy chief of staff and senior counselor. Kennedy is a longtime vaccine skeptic who believes the U.S. schedule has grown too quickly, has not been tested in its entirety for adverse effects, and is a likely cause of rising autism rates. Numerous studies have not found a link between vaccines and the neurological disorder that now affects one in 31 U.S. children, up from one in 150 two decades ago. Experts in the condition, which affects the ability to communicate, say expanded diagnostic criteria and awareness are responsible for most of that rise. The condition’s cause is usually genetic, they believe, but researchers are studying possible environmental causes. HHS has made it a priority to learn more about what causes autism and why diagnoses are rising. The department’s research arm, the National Institutes of Health, announced an Autism Data Science Initiative on May 27 and has awarded around $50 million to fund 13 projects investigating potential causes. In April, Kennedy promised to reveal autism’s cause in September, but HHS later said it would reveal preliminary findings early next year. Autism researchers, who have studied the condition for years, have called that unrealistic. The first indication Kennedy might be considering the slimmer Danish schedule, which excludes vaccines for chickenpox, the flu, hepatitis A and B, meningitis, respiratory syncytial virus and rotavirus, came earlier this month during the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting in Atlanta. Høeg presented a slide deck titled “U.S. vs. Danish Vaccine Schedule,” which the CDC posted among the meeting presentations. The department then circulated Høeg’s presentation to top officials at HHS, the first senior official said. In the ensuing debate, Høeg’s supporters proposed offering the Danish schedule as a government-recommended alternative to the U.S. one. The first senior official and two others inside HHS familiar with internal discussions, all of whom were granted anonymity to reveal deliberations they were not authorized to discuss publicly, said proponents of the Danish schedule felt that offering it would help restore trust in vaccines; many Americans were turned off by Covid-era vaccine mandates and claims that Covid shots would halt transmission that turned out to be incorrect, they argued. The three officials said the view of proponents inside the administration was that the Danish schedule could be pitched as a “reset” that might convince hesitant parents to vaccinate their kids. Critics inside the administration, the officials said, argued the plan to recommend the Danish schedule was not rigorous and science-based — and that promoting it publicly would invite criticism. Rather than restoring trust, they said it could undermine it by signaling doubt about the need for, and safety of, routine immunization. Going forward without laying the scientific groundwork or going through normal regulatory processes could also make the department vulnerable to lawsuits, the HHS general counsel’s office argued, according to the first senior official. Mike Stuart, who was a U.S. attorney in West Virginia in Trump’s first term, now is HHS general counsel. The American Academy of Pediatrics, which represents doctors who care for children, along with other physician and public health groups, has already sued HHS for changes it made earlier this year to Covid vaccine recommendations, saying the department violated rules governing how regulatory changes are made. That case is pending in federal district court in Boston. HHS has stopped recommending Covid boosters for previously vaccinated people under 65 who are not at high risk of the disease. Instead, the department says Americans should talk to their doctor and make a shared decision. Carmen Paun contributed to this story. Tim Röhn is senior editor of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network.

Prime minister’s questions: a shouty, jeery, very occasionally useful advert for British politics. Here’s what you need to know from the latest session in POLITICO’s weekly run-through. What they sparred about: The year that was. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s last hurrah of 2025 saw everyone’s favorite duo row about the turkey Labour’s record over the last 12 months — and who caused the nightmare before Christmas. Pull the other one: Badenoch wished everyone a festive break in the season of goodwill — but then the gloves came off. She raised the PM’s own frustration at pulling levers but struggling to get change (Labour’s favorite word). “Does he blame himself or the levers?” Cutting. Starmer used the free airtime to rattle through his achievements, stressing “I’ve got a whole list … I could go on for a very long time.” Comparisons to Santa write themselves. Jobbing off:  “The Prime Minister promised economic growth, but the only thing that’s grown is his list of broken promises,” Badenoch hit back. This list analogy was really gaining momentum. She lambasted rising unemployment under Labour, yet the PM was able to point to lower inactivity under his watch and, of course, mentioned the boost of falling inflation this morning. Backhanded compliment: Starmer, no doubt desperate for a rest, used the imminent break to “congratulate” Badenoch for breaking a record on the number of Tories defecting to Reform UK. “The question is who’s next,” he mused, enjoying the chance to focus on the Conservatives’ threat to their right, rather than Labour’s troubles to its left. Clucking their tongues: Outraged at her Shadow Cabinet getting called non-entities, Badenoch kept the seasonal attacks going by labeling the Cabinet a “bunch of turkeys.” She said Starmer was no longer a caretaker PM but the “undertaker prime minister.” Bruising stuff. Last orders: Amid all the metaphorical tinsel and bells of holly, Starmer adopted a lawyerly tone on Labour’s support for pubs (even though many greasy spoons have banned Labour MPs) and condemned ongoing industrial action by resident doctors. But the Tory leader went out on (possibly) a new low by arguing Starmer “doesn’t have the baubles” to ban medical staff from striking and said all Labour MPs want “is a new leader.” Grab the mince pies: The prime minister’s speechwriters clearly did their homework with Starmer, not a natural on the humor front, comparing the Tories to “The Muppets Christmas Carol” and joking that all the defections meant Badenoch would be “left Home Alone.” Penalty shootout: Hold the homepage — PMQs actually delivered a news line. The PM confirmed the government issued a licence to transfer to Ukraine £2.5 billion of Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich’s cash from his sale of Chelsea football club. Starmer told Abramovich to “pay up now,” or he’d be taken to court. Teal bauble: The end-of-year vibes allowed Starmer to deploy a festive jibe of advice to Reform UK: “If mysterious men from the East appear bearing gifts, this time, report it to the police!” Labour just won’t let ex-Reform UK Leader in Wales Nathan Gill’s conviction for pro-Russian bribery go. Even Nigel Farage, sat up above in the VIP public gallery, had a chuckle, admitting “that’s quite funny” to nearby hacks. Helpful backbench intervention of the week: Tipton and Wednesbury MP Antonia Bance commended the government’s efforts to support the West Midlands by striking the U.S. trade deal, ripping into Reform. The PM just couldn’t resist another attack line against his party’s main opponent. Totally unscientific scores on the doors: Starmer 8/10. Badenoch 5/10. The final PMQs exchange was never going to be a serious exchange, given the opportunity to make Christmas gags. The Tory leader followed a scattergun approach, highlighting the various broken promises, but none landed a blow. The PM, doubtless relieved to bag a few weeks away from the interrogation, brushed them off and used his pre-scripted lines to deliver a solid concluding performance.