BRUSSELS — The European Parliament’s three largest political groups are discussing new safeguards against the unpredictability of President Donald Trump in a bid to break a deadlock over approving the EU–U.S. trade deal, according to two lawmakers and three officials familiar with the talks. Center-left and liberal lawmakers are asking for a clause to be included in enabling legislation that is now before the house, under which the deal would be voided if Trump restarts his threats against the territorial sovereignty of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark. “We will need to have safeguards in place with a clear reference to territorial sovereignty directed at Trump’s unpredictability,” said an official of the Socialists & Democrats familiar with the discussions, granted anonymity to speak about confidential deliberations. There are already suspension clauses in the text, but lawmakers want to include definitions — including threats to territorial sovereignty — to strengthen them. Apart from the sovereignty clause, the definitions should specify that new tariff threats would trigger an automatic suspension of the agreement, said an official from the liberal Renew Europe group. That could pave the way for a vote on the Parliament’s position to be scheduled for the next meeting of its International Trade Committee on Feb. 23-24. For the EU to implement its side of the bargain, the Parliament and Council of the EU, representing the bloc’s 27 members, would still need to reach a final compromise. “This could be perhaps a date to vote,” Bernd Lange, the chair of the committee, told POLITICO, referring to the Feb. 23-24 meeting. Lange added that outstanding issues — including whether to schedule a vote on the deal at all — will be discussed at a meeting of lead negotiators scheduled for Wednesday next week. “The question of safeguard[s] is an important one and will be solved in the proper way,” he added. The Parliament froze ratification of the agreement, reached by Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last July, after the U.S. president threatened tariffs on European allies backing Greenland, a self-governing Danish protectorate. The center-right European People’s Party has pushed to sign off on the deal following calls from EU countries to unblock the implementation after Trump walked back threats to seize Greenland. But S&D, Renew and the Greens have so far balked, arguing further details are needed on the “framework” deal agreed by Trump with NATO chief Mark Rutte. An EPP official with knowledge of the discussions said the center-right group was open to stricter suspension safeguards in case Trump turns hostile again. “If he threatens [again] then the deal is off, but not the rest of our economic cooperation,” the official said. One of the S&D’s demands had been to officially ask the Commission to launch an investigation into whether Washington is coercing Europe to give up Greenland, which could lead to the launch of the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument. This trade “bazooka” is the bloc’s most powerful trade retaliatory weapon — but the EPP strongly opposes deploying it. “Anti-coercion is a serious and nuclear weapon that should be last discussed with strategic allies,” the EPP’s top trade lawmaker Željana Zovko told POLITICO, adding that the tool is “not serious diplomacy, only for drama queens.” Lawmakers are also discussing adding a sunset clause that would require the Commission to review the agreement after a set period, as well as excluding its steel provisions from ratification until the U.S. withdraws its 50 percent tariffs on European goods containing steel. MEPs say this violates the 15 percent all-inclusive rate agreed last summer.

ABOARD THE PRIME MINISTER’S PLANE TO BEIJING — Keir Starmer rejected his Canadian counterpart’s call for mid-sized countries to band together in the face of unpredictable global powers — and insisted his “common sense” British approach will do just fine. The British prime minister arrives in China Wednesday for a trip aimed at rebooting the U.K.’s relationship with the Asian superpower. He’s the latest Western leader to make the visit — which will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping — after trips by Carney and France’s Emmanuel Macron. Carney used a searing speech at the World Economic Forum last week to warn of the “rupture” caused by “great powers” acting in their own self-interest. While he did not namecheck Donald Trump’s administration, the speech riled the U.S. president, who insisted: “Canada lives because of the United States.” The Canadian PM had called for middle powers to work together to “build something bigger, better, stronger, more just.” Starmer was pressed on those remarks on board his flight to China Tuesday. Asked whether he agreed that the old global order is dead — and whether smaller powers need to team up to push back at the U.S. and China, Starmer defended his own policy of trying to build bridges with Trump, Xi and the European Union all at once. “I’m a pragmatist, a British pragmatist applying common sense, and therefore I’m pleased that we have a good relationship with the U.S. on defense, security, intelligence and on trade and prosperity,” he says. “It’s very important that we maintain that good relationship.” He added: “Equally, we are moving forward with a better relationship with the EU. We had a very good summit last year with 10 strands of agreement. “We’ll have another summit this year with the EU, which I hope will be iterative, as well as following through on what we’ve already agreed. “And I’ve consistently said I’m not choosing between the U.S. and Europe. I’m really glad that the UK has got good relations with both.” Starmer’s government — which faces pressure from opposition parties back home as it re-engages with China — has stressed that it wants to cooperate, compete with and challenge Beijing when necessary, as it bids to build economic ties to aid the sputtering U.K. economy. “Obviously, China is the second biggest economy in the world, one of our biggest trading partners,” the British PM — who is flying with an entourage of British CEOs and business reps — said Tuesday. “And under the last government, we veered from the golden age to the ice age. And what I want to do is follow through on the approach I’ve set out a number of times now … which is a comprehensive and consistent approach to China. “I do think there are opportunities, but obviously we will never compromise national security in taking those opportunities.”

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music What a week! Tariff threats, Greenland brinkmanship and a dramatic Trump U-turn in Davos: EU leaders gathered in Brussels for an emergency summit meant to pick up the pieces of the shattered transatlantic relationship and figure out what to do next. In this episode of EU Confidential, we’re on the ground, right next to the European Council meeting as it unfolds. Unpacking how Europe can move forward after Trump escalated fast, reversed course even faster — and still left allies rattled. What did the EU learn? Did standing up work? And is Brussels finally rewriting its playbook for dealing with Washington? Joining host Sarah Wheaton are POLITICO’s own Zoya Sheftalovich, Nick Vinocur and Tim Ross to break it all down. We also dig into other issues looming over the summit: Trump’s Gaza “Board of Peace,” which has split European capitals; the sudden derailment of the Mercosur trade deal; and Ukraine’s abandoned hopes for a security deal.

European leaders descend on Brussels this evening for a crunch summit with the transatlantic relationship top of their agenda. U.S. President Donald Trump backed down Wednesday from his most belligerent threats about seizing Greenland from Denmark, but that hasn’t assuaged European concerns about America’s posture toward Europe. It’s another busy day in Davos too, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz speaking and Trump potentially set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And if that wasn’t enough, Trump’s everything envoy Steve Witkoff is headed to the Kremlin for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Whew. Strap in.

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Der Grönland-Konflikt eskaliert und wird zum handfesten Handelsstreit. Donald Trump droht mit neuen Strafzöllen gegen Europa, als Reaktion auf die gemeinsame Erkundungsmission westlicher Staaten. Im Zentrum steht Kanzler Friedrich Merz, der sich demonstrativ hinter Dänemark stellt und vor einer Eskalation der transatlantischen Beziehungen warnt. Doch in Berlin und Brüssel wird längst über Gegenmaßnahmen gesprochen. Lars Klingbeil bringt das europäische Anti-Coercion-Instrument, die sogenannte Trade Bazooka, ins Spiel.  Tom Schmidtgen, Reporter für Industrie und Handel bei POLITICO, erklärt, welche Optionen die EU wirklich hat: Von Gegenzöllen über Lizenzentzüge bis hin zu Einschränkungen bei öffentlichen Ausschreibungen und warum ein offener Handelskrieg vor allem Unternehmen verunsichert. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

BRUSSELS — The European Union is on track to get nearly half its gas from the United States by the end of the decade, creating a major strategic vulnerability for the bloc as relations with Washington hit an all-time low. New data shared with POLITICO shows Europe is already importing a quarter of its gas from the U.S., a figure that is set to soar as the bloc’s total ban on Russian gas imports is phased in. It comes as an increasingly belligerent U.S. President Donald Trump flirts with seizing Greenland, a territory of Denmark, in a move that could destroy the NATO alliance and throw transatlantic relations into crisis. Tensions escalated over the weekend when Trump announced he would put new tariffs on European countries including France, Denmark, Germany and the U.K. until a deal to sell Greenland to the U.S. was reached, prompting calls for the EU to retaliate with drastic trade restrictions of its own. The EU’s growing reliance on imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas “has created a potentially high-risk new geopolitical dependency,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst at the the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the think tank that produced the research. “An over-reliance on U.S. gas contradicts the [EU policy] of enhancing EU energy security through diversification, demand reduction and boosting renewables supply,” she said. Alarm over this strategic weak spot is also growing among member countries, with some EU diplomats fretting that the Trump administration could exploit the new dependency to achieve its foreign policy goals. While “there are other sources of gas in the world” beyond the U.S., the risk of Trump cutting off supplies to Europe in the wake of an incursion in Greenland “should be taken into account,” one senior EU diplomat told POLITICO, who like others in this article spoke on condition of anonymity. But “hopefully we’ll not get there,” the official added. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the EU went to drastic lengths to wean itself off Russian natural gas, which in 2021 made up 50 percent of its total imports but now accounts for only 12 percent, according to data from Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think tank. It accomplished this largely by switching imports of pipeline gas from Russia with liquefied natural gas shipped from the U.S., which at the time was a firm ally. The U.S. is already the biggest exporter of LNG, and its product now accounts for around 27 percent of EU gas imports, up from 5 percent in 2021. France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium are the largest importers; non-EU member the U.K. is also a major importer of U.S. LNG. A raft of new deals with U.S. energy companies could raise that figure to as high as 40 percent of the EU’s total gas intake by 2030, and to around 80 percent of overall LNG imports into the bloc, according to data from IEEFA, a U.S. nonprofit that promotes clean energy. CHANGES AFOOT Despite efforts to switch away from fossil fuels, Europe still relies on carbon-emitting natural gas for a quarter of its total energy needs. Gas is used to generate electricity, heat buildings and power industry. European consumers and manufacturers already face some of the highest energy costs in the world, `making it hard for the EU to refuse cheaper gas from the U.S. despite Washington’s threatening language. An LNG tanker unloads Egyptian liquefied natural gas at the Revithoussa terminal near Athens. | Nicolas Koutsokostas/NurPhoto via Getty Images EU countries have already committed to diversifying their gas imports under new laws passed last year, but officials warn this will be difficult to achieve in the short term, given that the global supply of LNG is limited to just a few countries. They’re pinning their hopes on new production in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, expected in 2030. On top of the future energy deals — including a commitment to buy €750 billion of U.S. energy products as part of last year’s trade agreement — the EU is set to pave new inroads for U.S. gas under a sweeping overhaul of Europe’s energy infrastructure. For instance, the EU has restated its commitment to two major gas pipelines that will connect Malta and Cyprus to mainland Europe, which could facilitate still more flows of American gas. The U.S. is also looking to build a pipeline linking Bosnia to EU-member Croatia. ‘NO ALTERNATIVE‘ To some, the EU’s growing dependence on U.S. gas highlights that it should hasten its transition to renewables as a replacement for fossil fuels. Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, a Socialist EU lawmaker, said demand for natural gas has fallen sharply across the bloc as the green transition picks up, even if demand for U.S. LNG is increasing as an overall proportion of intake. “If we have the courage to keep calm and carry on making profitable investments in efficiency and renewables, we will reduce EU gas demand so much that we will reduce our dependence on U.S. LNG, even as we fully phase out Russian gas,” Pellerin-Carlin told POLITICO. The lawmaker also argued that Trump was unlikely to weaponize LNG supply to the EU as Russian President Vladimir Putin had done, since it would severely damage the interests of key Trump donors in the U.S. LNG industry, who are desperate to find new buyers to absorb soaring supply of the fossil fuel. The issue of U.S. LNG dependence is addressed by a broader EU commitment to energy diversification that was baked into a wider ban on Russian gas set to take effect this year, according to diplomats familiar with the matter. The official line, however, is that the U.S. remains a “strategic ally and supplier,” one of the diplomats said. “The dependence is certainly there, but we’re kind of stuck where we are,” said one European government official. “There’s really no alternative.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen hailed the support Denmark and Greenland are getting from European countries over U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose new tariffs in his bid to gain control of the Arctic island. “I am pleased with the consistent messages from the rest of the continent: Europe will not be blackmailed,” Frederiksen wrote in a statement on Sunday reported by the BBC and other media. “The Kingdom of Denmark is receiving great support,” she wrote, describing how she has been in “intensive dialogue” with allies including the U.K., France and Germany. “We’re not the ones looking for conflict,” Frederiksen stated. “At the same time, it is now even clearer that this is an issue that reaches far beyond our own borders,” she added. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson was one of Frederiksen’s colleagues stressing that European countries “will not let ourselves be blackmailed.” “This is an EU issue that affects many more countries than those now being singled out,” Kristersson said in a post on X on Saturday. Frederiksen’s comments on Sunday came after Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K. — the eights countries targeted by Trump’s tariff threat — banded together to defend the “pre-coordinated Danish exercise” in Greenland that was cited by Trump in his Truth Social post about the new tariffs. “It poses no threat to anyone,” the capitals argued, reaffirming that they “stand in full solidarity with the Kingdom of Denmark and the people of Greenland.” The U.S. threats of tariffs “risk a dangerous downward spiral,” the countries added.

French President Emmanuel Macron will ask the EU to activate the bloc’s so-called trade “bazooka” — the Anti-Coercion Instrument — in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland. “He will be in contact all day with his European counterparts and will ask, in the name of France, the activation of the Anti-Coercion Instrument,” Macron’s office said on Sunday. The instrument offers the EU various punitive trade measures that can be taken against trade rivals that try to threaten the bloc. Those measures include restrictions on investment and access to public procurement schemes, as well as limits on intellectual property protections. On Saturday, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European countries that oppose his plans to take control of Greenland. EU ambassadors are convening an emergency meeting later Sunday to respond to the tariff threat. Macron responded later Saturday by saying: “Tariff threats are unacceptable.” “No intimidation or threat will influence us,” Macron said in a post on X. “Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner … We will ensure that European sovereignty is upheld,”

BRUSSELS — Senior EU lawmakers want the European Parliament to freeze the EU-U.S. trade deal in response to Donald Trump’s threats to take over Greenland. The deal was deeply unpopular across party lines as it was seen as overwhelmingly favoring Washington, but European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sold it as the price of keeping Trump onside. However, Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric this week, saying “we need Greenland from the standpoint of national security,” and has repeatedly refused to rule out military intervention. As a result, MEPs from the center-left, liberal, green, and left-wing groups say the deal should be blocked. “I cannot imagine that in the current situation MEPs would vote for any trade measures benefiting the U.S.,” the Greens’ top trade lawmaker and chair of the Internal Market Committee Anna Cavazzini told POLITICO.  “We should have such a discussion, it’s inevitable,” added Brando Benifei, the Socialist lawmaker who chairs Parliament’s delegation for relations with the U.S. Under the deal, most EU exports are subject to a 15 percent U.S. tariff. To complete its side of the bargain, the EU also needs to pass legislation to abolish all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, including the 10 percent it currently slaps on U.S. cars, and ease market access for some farm produce and seafood. “If we are to give it the green light, we need guarantees that the U.S. will stop its tariffs and its security-related threats,” said Renew’s trade heavyweight Karin Karlsbro. “The United States cannot take the EU’s support for the trade agreement for granted.”  Danish MEP Per Clausen, of The Left group, has circulated a letter among all MEPs asking them to support his call for Parliament President Roberta Metsola to freeze parliamentary work on the deal. The deadline for adding signatures is Tuesday. “If we accept this agreement while Trump is threatening the international order and making direct territorial claims against Denmark, it will be seen as rewarding his actions — and will only add fuel to the fire,” Clausen said.  The biggest political group in the Parliament, the European People’s Party (EPP), remains noncommittal. “These are separate matters,” said Željana Zovko, the group’s negotiator on the U.S. file, when asked whether the Parliament should freeze the trade deal over Greenland. The EPP’s top trade MEP, Jörgen Warborn, left the door to blocking the trade deal ajar. While the EU “must preserve” the deal as a basis for stable transatlantic trade, he said, “we are ready to act if necessary.” But the EPP lacks the numbers to pass the deal with right-wing and far-right allies alone. A united front by the Socialists, Renew and the Greens would be enough to put the agreement on ice.  The Parliament’s U.S. deal negotiators will meet on Wednesday to discuss next steps.

BRUSSELS — Donald Trump says he wants to reshape politics in Europe. For many voters in major European democracies, it feels like he already has. Trump’s return as U.S. president is far more significant for voters in Germany, France and the U.K. than the election of their own national leaders, according to respondents to the first international POLITICO Poll. The finding vividly illustrates the impact of Trump’s first year back in the White House on global politics, with his sway felt particularly keenly in Europe. The online survey, conducted by the independent London-based polling company Public First, also shows many Europeans share Trump’s critical assessment in a POLITICO interview earlier this week of the relative weakness of their own national leaders. The poll had more than 10,000 respondents from the U.S., Canada and the three biggest economies in Europe: Germany, France and the United Kingdom. For leaders like Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, it makes particularly grim reading: They are seen by their own voters as having largely failed to handle the unpredictable American president effectively so far. EU leaders fared worst of all. In France, only 11 percent thought Brussels had done a good job of handling Trump, with 47 percent saying EU leadership had navigated the relationship badly. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gets a slightly better rating — his record on managing Trump is seen as neither good nor bad. “These results show how much Trump has shaped the last year of political conversation not just in the U.S., but globally,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “This is true for the public as much as it is for policymakers — the fact that so many believe Trump’s election, on the other side of the world, has been more significant for their own country than their own leaders’ election lays this bare.” The polling comes at an acutely sensitive moment for transatlantic relations. A new White House National Security Strategy unveiled last week destroyed any notion of American neutrality toward its historic allies in Europe, instead launching a crusade to convert the region’s democracies to his own MAGA ideology. POLITICO on Tuesday named Trump as the most powerful person shaping European politics, at the top of its annual P28 list. The list is not an endorsement or award. It reflects, instead, each individual’s capacity to shape Europe’s politics and policies in the year ahead, as assessed by the POLITICO newsroom and the power players POLITICO’s journalists speak with. In a White House interview on Monday with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for a special episode of “The Conversation,” Trump expanded on the message, saying he would endorse candidates from parties in Europe who shared his outlook — especially on shutting down immigration. ELECTIONS MATTER, BUT SOME MORE THAN OTHERS In an effort to unpack Trump’s disruptive influence on international affairs since he returned for his second term in January, Public First conducted an online survey of 10,510 adults aged 18 and over, between Dec. 5 and Dec. 9. The research found that in Germany and the U.K. over half of respondents considered Trump’s election even more important than the elections of their own leaders, even though both Merz and Starmer have only relatively recently won power themselves. In Germany, 53 percent of people thought Trump’s election was more significant for their country than the election of Merz, compared with 25 percent who thought the German election was more important. In the U.K., 54 percent said Trump’s return was more significant than Starmer’s Labour Party taking power and ending 14 years of Conservative rule, compared with 28 percent who said the change of national government last year was more important for Britain.  French voters were a little less stark in their view, but still 43 percent thought Trump’s victory was more significant, against 25 percent who believed Macron’s election had a bigger impact on France. In Canada, however, respondents were split. Mark Carney’s victory in April, on the back of a campaign promise to stand up to Trump, was viewed by 40 percent as more significant than Trump’s return to power. Only slightly more — 45 percent — said Trump’s win was more significant for Canada than Carney’s. TRANSPARENCY TRUMPS STRENGTH In his interview with POLITICO, Trump denounced European leaders as “weak,” provoking retorts from politicians across the European Union and even prompting the pope to urge him not to “break apart” the transatlantic alliance. The researchers found that Europeans broadly shared Trump’s view that their leaders were weak, at least in comparison to him. They rated Trump as more “strong and decisive” than their own leader, by 74 percent to 26 percent in Germany; 73 percent to 27 percent in France; and 69 percent to 31 percent in the U.K. Canada was again the notable exception, with 60 percent saying Carney is stronger and more decisive compared to Trump, and only 40 percent saying the reverse.  Overall, however, the quality of being a strong and decisive leader is not seen as the most desirable trait among voters questioned in the survey. Far more important across all five countries in the research, including the U.S., is being honest and transparent.  “Strength is not the most important trait for a leader, but it is clearly an area where European leaders’ approach fall short so his words in the POLITICO interview will ring true,” said Wride.  Pollsters also asked how people felt their own leaders were handling the whirlwind of geopolitical upheaval in Trump’s second term. In France and Germany, more people think their leaders handled Trump badly than approved: Only 24 percent thought Merz had done a good job, while 34 percent thought his handling of Trump had been bad.  In France, Macron fared even worse. Just 16 percent of respondents said he had done well compared to 39 percent who thought he had done badly at managing relations with the White House. The verdict on Starmer was mixed: 29 percent thought he was handling Trump well, the same proportion as said he was doing badly. That represents an underwhelming verdict on a prime minister who has made a priority of maintaining a warm and effective alliance with the U.S. president.  RESISTANCE VS. STANDING UP TO TRUMP The research found that people in Europe wanted their leaders to stand up to Trump and challenge him, rather than prioritize getting along with him. However, when asked how their own particular national leaders should behave, Europeans took the opposite view, saying collaboration was more important than challenging the president.  Canadians remained punchy regardless, with a slight preference for Carney to confront Trump.  “Perhaps the only opportunity Trump has offered national leaders is the opportunity to stand up to him, something which we find tends to improve perceptions of them,” said Wride, from Public First. “Having fallen short on this, from the public’s perspective, leaders are seen to have largely failed to respond for the last year.” This edition of The POLITICO Poll was conducted from Dec. 5 to Dec. 9, surveying 10,510 adults online, with at least 2,000 respondents each from the U.S., Canada, U.K., France and Germany. Results for each country were weighted to be representative on dimensions including age, gender and geography, and have an overall margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points for each country. Smaller subgroups have higher margins of error. The survey is an ongoing project from POLITICO and Public First, an independent polling company headquartered in London, to measure public opinion across a broad range of policy areas. You can find new surveys and analysis each month at politico.com/poll. Have questions or comments? Ideas for future surveys? Email us at poll@politico.com.