BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative-led coalition received an unsolicited political lifeline from an unlikely place — but it comes at a cost. Germany’s far-left Die Linke ― The Left ― party on Wednesday announced that its lawmakers will abstain from a vote on a pension package set for Friday, a move that effectively assures the package will pass and potentially saves Merz from a humiliation that would have further undermined his already-weak coalition government. The announcement from far-left leaders came as Merz was attempting to quell a rebellion by 18 young lawmakers inside his own conservative bloc who argue that current pension benefits aren’t sustainable. Because Merz’s coalition has a narrow parliamentary majority of only 12 votes, passage of the pension package had remained in doubt. The Left’s leaders said they were acting not to help the coalition, but rather to protect pensioners from cuts. Conservatives “have been playing power games at the expense of millions of pensioners across the country,” The Left’s parliamentary group leader Heidi Reichinnek said in a statement. “It is absolutely disgraceful that the conservative bloc does not even allow pensioners to have butter on their bread.” The Left’s decision to abstain bails Merz out of an immediate political mess that casted doubt on the ability of his coalition — an ideologically divergent alliance between Merz’s conservatives and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) — to pass key legislation just several months after taking office. Johannes Winkel, a young conservative lawmaker, said in an online post that he intended to vote against the pension package on Friday. | John Macdougal/Getty Images At the same time, The Left’s unsolicited help is an embarrassment of its own kind, creating the politically damaging impression that Merz’s coalition required the support of far-left foes his party views as too radical to work with. Should The Left’s 64 lawmakers follow through on the vow to abstain in the Bundestag on Friday, it will bring down overall number of votes coalition lawmakers need to pass the pension legislation, providing indirect help. In a kind of face-saving measure, conservative leaders continue to try to secure support of the young conservative rebels for the pension package. Yet, on Wednesday, it was still unclear whether the effort would bear fruit. Coalition leaders last Friday announced a compromise on pensions — agreeing to weigh far more sweeping reforms as early as next year — that they had hoped would assuage the concerns of young conservatives. But many continue to reject the immediate pension package. Johannes Winkel, a young conservative lawmaker, said in an online post that he intended to vote against the pension package on Friday. “Germany urgently needs reforms because demographic change will have an unprecedented impact on public finances,” he said. “Intergenerational justice finally requires practical decisions instead of symbolic politics.” Rasmus Buchsteiner contributed reporting.

Heidi Kingstone is a journalist and author covering human rights issues, conflict and politics. Her most recent book is “Genocide: Personal Stories, Big Questions.” Slavery is alive and thriving, and it’s wrapped inside shiny chocolate bars that promise to be “fair trade,” “child-labor free” and “sustainable.” In West Africa, which produces more than 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, over 1.5 million children still work under hazardous conditions. Kids, some as young as five, use machetes to crack pods open in their hands, carry loads that weigh more than they do and spray toxic pesticides without protection. Meanwhile, of the roughly 2 million metric tons of cocoa the Ivory Coast produces each year, between 20 percent and 30 percent is grown illegally in protected forests. And satellite data from Global Forest Watch shows an increase in deforestation across key cocoa-growing regions as farmers, desperate for income, push deeper into forest reserves. The bitter truth is that despite decades of pledges, certification schemes and packaging glowing with virtue — of forests saved, farmers empowered and consciences soothed — most chocolate companies have failed to eradicate exploitation from their supply chains. Today, many cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast and Ghana still earn less than a dollar a day, well below the poverty line. According to a 2024 report by the International Cocoa Initiative, the average farmer earns only 40 percent of a living wage. Put starkly, as the global chocolate market swells close to a $150 billion a year in 2025, the average farmer now receives less than 6 percent of the value of a single chocolate bar, whereas in the 1970s they received more than 50 percent. Then there’s the use of child labor, which is essentially woven into the fabric of this economy, where we have been sold the illusion of progress. From the 2001 Harkin-Engel Protocol — a voluntary agreement to end child labor by the world’s chocolate giants — to today’s glossy environmental, social and governance (ESG) reports, every initiative has promised progress and delivered delay. In 2007, the industry quietly redefined “public certification,” shifting it from a commitment to consumer labeling to a vague pledge to compile statistics on labor conditions. It missed the original 2010 deadline to eliminate child labor, as well as a new target to reduce it by 70 percent by 2020. And that year, a study by the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center found that hazardous child labor in cocoa production increased from 2008 to 2019. “We covered a story about a ship carrying trafficked children,” recalled journalist Humphrey Hawksley, who first exposed the issue in the BBC documentary called Slavery: A Global Investigation. “The chocolate companies refused to comment and spoke as one industry. That was their rule. Even now, none of them is slave-free,” he added. As it stands, many of the more than 1.5 million West African children working in cocoa production are trafficked from neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali. Traffickers lure them with false promises or outright abduction, offering children as young as 10 either bicycles or small sums to travel to the Ivory Coast. There, they are sold to farmers for as little as $34 each. And once on these farms, they are trapped. They work up to 14 hours a day, sleep in windowless sheds with no clean water or toilets, and most never see the inside of a classroom. Last but not least, we come to deforestation: Since its independence, more than 90 percent of the Ivory Coast’s forests have disappeared due to cocoa farming. In 2024, deforestation accelerated despite corporate commitments to halt it by 2025, as declining soil fertility and stagnant prices pushed farmers farther into the forest to plant new cocoa trees. But as Reuters Correspondent for West and Central Africa Ange Aboa described them, such labels are “the biggest scam of the century!” | Lena Klimkeit/Picture Alliance via Getty Images Certification labels like “Rainforest Alliance” and “Fairtrade” are supposed to prevent this. But as Reuters Correspondent for West and Central Africa Ange Aboa described them, such labels are “the biggest scam of the century!” Complicit in all of this are the financiers and investors who profit. For example, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is the world’s largest investor, and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) is a shareholder in 9,000 corporations, including Nestlé, Mondelez, Hershey, Barry Callebaut and Lindt — all part of the direct chocolate cluster. NBIM also has shares in McDonald’s, Starbucks, Unilever, the Dunkin’ parent company and Tim Hortons — the indirect high-volume buyer cluster. “The richest families in cocoa — the Marses, the Ferreros, the Cargills, the Jacobs — are billionaires thanks to the exploitation of the poorest children on earth,” said journalist and human rights campaigner Fernando Morales-de la Cruz, the founder of Cacao for Change. “And countries like Norway, which claim to be ethical, profit from slavery and child labor.” The problem is, few are asking who picks the cocoa. And though the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which was adopted last year, requires large companies to address human rights and environmental abuses in their supply chains, critics say the directive’s weaknesses, loopholes, and delayed enforcement will blunt its impact. However, all of this could still be fixed. Currently, a metric ton of cocoa sells for about $5,000 on world markets, but Morales-de la Cruz estimates that a fair farm-gate price would be around $7,500 per metric ton. To that end, he advocates for binding international trade standards that enforce living incomes and transparent pricing, modeled on the World Trade Organization’s compliance mechanisms. “Human rights should be as binding in trade as tariffs,” he insisted. The solution isn’t to buy more “ethical” bars but to demand accountability and support legislation that makes exploitation unprofitable. “We can’t shop our way to justice,” he said. So, as the trees in the Ivory Coast’s forests fall, the profits in Europe and North America continue to soar. And two decades after the industry vowed to end child labor, the cocoa supply chain remains one of the world’s most exploitative and least accountable. Moreover, the European Parliament’s vote on the Omnibus simplification package last month laid bare the corporate control and moral blindness still present in EU policymaking, all behind talk of “cutting red tape.” “Yet Europe’s media and EU-funded NGOs stay silent, talking of competitiveness and green transitions, while ignoring the children who harvest its cocoa, coffee and cotton,” said Morales-de la Cruz. “Europe cannot claim to defend human rights while profiting from exploitation.” However, until the industry pays a fair price and governments enforce real accountability, every bar of chocolate remains an unpaid moral debt.

BRUSSELS — The European Union has approved a proposal to curb trade benefits for developing countries that refuse to take back migrants whose stay in the bloc has been denied. Low-tariff access to the EU’s market will be reviewed in the context of “the readmission of that country’s own nationals” who have been identified as “irregular migrants to the Union,” a document seen by POLITICO confirms. Negotiators from the Council of the EU, the European Parliament and the European Commission agreed to the draft text late Monday night. The push to link trade measures to migration policy comes amid major advances by far-right parties across Europe and calls for governments to get tougher on enforcing returns. Currently, only a small share of those eligible for removal from the EU are actually deported — many because their home countries refuse to cooperate. “In case of serious and systematic shortcomings related to the international obligation to readmit a beneficiary country’s own nationals, the preferential arrangements … may be withdrawn temporarily, in respect of all or of certain products originating in that beneficiary country, where the Commission considers that an insufficient level of cooperation on readmission persists,” it reads. The readmission clause will be applied with more or less stringent conditions depending on a country’s development level, the document also says. The measures, which would only be invoked after dialog with countries, are being included in an overhaul of the so-called Generalized Scheme of Preferences, a 50-year old program that enables poorer countries to export goods to EU countries at lower tariff rates. The review of the program, which has been under negotiation for over three years, is designed to help these nations build their economies and is tied to the implementation of human rights, labor and environmental reforms. However, the issue of cheap rice imports from Pakistan or Bangladesh threatened to collapse the talks before the eventual agreement on Monday, amid concerns from EU producers like Spain and Italy that want to ensure their own farmers are not outcompeted. EU countries have long been considering the idea of using trade, development and visa policies to ensure third countries agree to take back failed migrants, amid growing public discontent that has driven victories for far-right parties at the ballot box. However, the proposals had faced opposition from the Parliament, as well as the Commission and a handful of capitals that feared this would upend relations with key partner countries. Denmark’s center-left government set its sights on migration as a key issue for its presidency, which ends on Dec. 31. Justice and home affairs ministers will meet next Monday to discuss ways to ensure more people leave the EU after their applications to stay are rejected, including through so-called return hubs in third countries.

PARIS — French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu blamed partisan cynicism and presidential ambitions for the perilous state of budget negotiations on Monday in his first public remarks since lawmakers overwhelmingly rejected a key portion of next year’s fiscal plans. “Everyone wants to push their own agenda and fly their ideological flag,” Lecornu said in remarks that bore a distinct similarity to those after his surprise resignation last month (he was eventually reappointed to the job.) “Some political parties and candidates in the upcoming election fundamentally believe that compromise is not compatible with their strategy.” Just one lawmaker in the National Assembly on Friday voted in favor of the first half of next year’s budget bill, which deals with tax hikes and other revenue-raising measures. Though a full government shutdown is unlikely — the French government can fall back on a stopgap mechanism that temporarily rolls over the current year’s budget until a new one is adopted — the discord is concerning given Lecornu’s promise to allow lawmakers to debate, amend and vote on a budget as they see fit. In the wake of the Friday vote, Lecornu said he will host party leaders and representatives of labor and trade organizations for talks on key national priorities, among them agriculture, energy, defense spending and deficit reduction. He also restated next year’s final budget with a projected deficit of under 5 percent of GDP. The outcome of these talks could lead to “ad hoc” votes in parliament, Lecornu said, to show that a majority of lawmakers can still find common ground in France’s hung parliament. The first of these votes is expected this week and will concern defense spending. Lecornu is hoping for the budgetary deadlock to be broken with the bill now under review in France’s upper house, the Senate. Lawmakers from both chambers will then convene in a process akin to a U.S.-style conference committee to agree on a joint version of the bill.

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing rising opposition — but this time it’s from within his own conservative ranks. A group of 18 young lawmakers in Merz’s conservative bloc are threatening to stop a pension reform bill put forth by the chancellor’s coalition government, arguing the benefits pledged in the agreement aren’t sustainable and “cannot be justified to the younger generation.” The revolt has turned into a test of Merz’s authority and the durability of his relatively weak government — a coalition between his conservative bloc and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merz’s coalition only has a 12-seat majority in parliament — one of the narrowest in postwar German history — making his government vulnerable to even modest defections within the ranks. During a conference over the weekend, Merz pushed back against criticism from young conservatives that planned pension benefits are too generous. “Does anyone seriously believe that we can win a race to the bottom on who can offer the lowest pension levels?” Merz said. “You can’t be serious!” Merz faced a series of harsh questions from attendees, many of whom felt the chancellor was not taking their arguments sufficiently seriously. “Let me be perfectly clear: There will be no further changes to this law,” SPD Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said. “We will pass it in the Bundestag.” | Bernd von Jutrczenka/picture alliance via Getty Images “Can you personally reconcile this with your credibility?” asked Laurenz Kiefer, a member of the young conservatives from Munich. Coalition lawmakers had initially expected to pass the pension reform package in early December as part of a series of bills Merz has attempted to push through to show his government can undertake the key structural reforms Germany needs to boost economic competitiveness. But the timing of that vote has now been cast into doubt amid the internal fighting. “I hope that we will have concluded this discussion by the end of the year so that we can enter 2026 with a genuine willingness to reform,” Merz said during an event in Berlin on Monday. Merz is effectively stuck between the demands of young conservatives to reconsider the pension package and the obduracy of his SPD coalition partners, who say they’re not willing to renegotiate it. “Let me be perfectly clear: There will be no further changes to this law,” SPD Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said. “We will pass it in the Bundestag.” The pension issue has become particularly thorny as Germany’s baby-boomer generation enters retirement, with millions of people leaving the workforce and far fewer entering it. Pensions are the largest single item of public expenditure in the country. At the heart of the internal rebellion is a proposal to stabilize pension benefits after 2031. Young conservatives argue that this plan goes further than what was originally agreed by the coalition, and would mean over €115 billion in additional costs by 2040. The internecine dispute has led some in Merz’s coalition — including his own family minister, Karin Prien — to propose postponing the pension reform vote to avoid the kind of embarrassment and open discord that could potentially lead to the coalition’s unravelling. “It is important that fair solutions for the broad majority are found in parliament,” Prien told German newspaper Handelsblatt.

BERLIN — Germany is facing crises from conscription to pensions, a troubled auto industry and faltering economic growth, and figuring out politically palatable solutions is splintering Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition. “There have been too many public discussions that have been interpreted as disputes,” Merz pleaded last week of his fractious coalition of conservative Christian Democrats and center-left Social Democrats (SPD).   “The government must solve problems. And the government must not give the impression that it is divided,” Merz went on, “Then the confidence of the population in the political parties and also in the individuals involved will gradually grow again.”    With top politicians of the center left and center right feuding over key government policies, it’s affecting Germany’s place at the heart of the EU as other countries are having a hard time figuring out Berlin’s position on a host of key issues. There are also growing doubts over the coalition’s long-term survival prospects. Fewer than one-third of Germans think the coalition will be able to govern until the end of the legislative period in 2029, according to a survey by polling institute Insa for Bild, which also saw government approval fall to a record low of just 25 percent. At the same time, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has recently overtaken Merz’s conservatives as Germany’s most popular party, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, and its rising strength is adding to coalition tensions. Since taking office in May, Merz’s Christian Democrats have tried to take the wind out of the sails of the anti-immigrant AfD by vowing to lead a crackdown on migration. But members of the SPD, Merz’s junior coalition partner, are increasingly trying to distance themselves from a discourse they say is taken straight out of the far-right playbook. The deputy leader of the SPD in parliament, Wiebke Esdar, went as far as joining anti-Merz protests over the weekend.   “The two major parties of the former center are now in a dilemma in that, on the one hand, they naturally have to distance themselves from each other to a certain extent, but at the same time they must always fear that, in a sense, if they do not work together properly, it will benefit the fringes,” said Florian Grotz, a political scientist at the Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg.  KEY DIVISIONS A prime example of the coalition’s messy infighting is its battle over military conscription, a dispute over both the army’s future and how present it should be in Germany’s national identity.  The Bundeswehr needs to reach 260,000 troops by 2035 from about 180,000 today. The conservatives want to reintroduce a “lottery-based” draft if voluntary recruitment fails, invoking civic duty as the backbone of national resilience.   The SPD, backed by Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, counters that coercion will only breed inefficiency at a crucial time for Germany’s rearmament. Pistorius has already torpedoed a compromise between the two parliamentary groups, rejecting the reintroduction of mandatory elements.  The deputy leader of the SPD in parliament, Wiebke Esdar, went as far as joining anti-Merz protests over the weekend. | Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images Both sides agree that the army needs people — but not on how to rebuild a force gutted by decades of neglect. Critics warn that six-month stints for 18-year-old conscripts would barely scratch the surface of the Bundeswehr’s high-tech needs.  The issues have grown into a referendum on postwar Germany’s self-image and whether the country’s ability to implement wide-ranging reforms is equitable for everyone — young and old. While the SPD is trying to protect the young from a mandatory draft, a whole other generational issue has triggered a rebellion inside Merz’s own bloc: pension reform. At the center of it is SPD Labor Minister Bärbel Bas, who wants to lock in the current pension level of 48 percent of average wages beyond 2031. She argues that safeguard is essential to prevent benefit cuts when Germany’s baby boom generation retires later this decade.  For Germany, this is no small matter. Pensions are the country’s largest single item of public spending — more than defense, education or health — and the system rests on a delicate pact between workers and retirees. The coming years will see millions leaving the workforce while far fewer young people enter it, threatening to push the pay-as-you-go model to the brink.  But for a bloc of younger Christian Democratic lawmakers that looks like an act of generational theft. Bas’ reform means about “€115 billion in additional costs” by 2040, according to a position paper by the 18 lawmakers who say they want to block it, seen by POLITICO. The revolt has turned into a test of Merz’s authority. His government’s 12-seat parliamentary majority is among the smallest in postwar German history, meaning that a relatively small group of lawmakers can easily stymie any measure. THE END OF AN ERA  The coalition’s gridlock is also being felt in Brussels. The EU’s 2035 phaseout of combustion engines — a crucial issue for Germany’s car industry that anchors nearly a fifth of the country’s exports — is another dicey issue that exposes Germany’s fading grip on Europe’s industrial transition.  Merz’s Christian Democratic Union and the SPD have tentatively backed a compromise to keep the EU’s 2035 ban in principle while creating exemptions for plug-in hybrids, “range-extender” vehicles that use small combustion engines to add range to batteries, and some synthetic fuels.   But the Bavarian Christian Social Union, the sister party of Merz’s CDU, has flatly refused. Bavarian premier Markus Söder has framed the ban as an assault on Germany’s industrial soul, warning Brussels to turn back its “ideological regulations.” Söder’s strong rejection is based on the influence of car giants such as BMW and Audi in Bavaria, but also on political fear, two people familiar with the CSU’s strategic thinking, granted anonymity to discuss internal matters, told POLITICO’s Berlin Playbook. Bavarian premier Markus Söder has framed the ban as an assault on Germany’s industrial soul. | Boris Roessler/picture alliance via Getty Images Söder worries about ceding working-class voters to the far-right AfD, they said, which has turned the defense of the combustion engine into a rallying cry ahead of next year’s communal elections.   The European Commission will start reviewing its car-emission regulation by the end of the year and expects member countries to communicate their positions beforehand. While other big countries such as France and Spain are trying to uphold the ban, Germany is essentially voiceless as long as the government has no common position. Defining a new approach toward pressing questions — including on the way forward for the German car industry —has become even more important as the old global system that saw Germany become Europe’s dominant economy looks increasingly tattered. During the long 2005-2021 rule of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany’s prosperity rested on three pillars: exports to China, cheap gas from Russia and U.S. protection through NATO. They have all crumbled, shattered by Chinese market barriers, Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,and President Donald Trump’s questioning of U.S. security guarantees for Europe. “Germany has created and enjoyed relatively favorable conditions during the Merkel era — economically, geopolitically, etc., and little provision has been made for the future,” said Grotz, the political science professor. “That is why difficulties exist now not only in one area, but in many.”  The result is a country forced to reinvent itself — but the fear of fringe parties is keeping mainstream politicians frozen, said Sabine Kropp, a political science professor at the Freie Universität Berlin. “A truly poor approach at the moment is the constant fear of the AfD,” she said. `”Everything is viewed through the lens of whether it benefits or harms the AfD, and that reduces the ability to solve problems.” Laura Hülsemann and Rasmus Buchsteiner contributed to this report. 

THE HAGUE — Frans Timmermans rose to the pinnacle of European Union politics. But it was his own Brussels legacy that sabotaged his attempt to defeat the far right. Timmermans resigned as the leader of the GreenLeft-Labor alliance Wednesday night after a stunning underperformance in the Dutch general election, with the party losing five seats since the last election and ending up in fourth place. “It’s clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,” Timmermans said in a speech in Rotterdam after the exit polls were published Wednesday night. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the leading of our movement to the next generation.” The pan-European Party of European Socialists considered Timmermans living proof that progressive, left-wing politics are in for a comeback after a decade of losing ground to the right. To them, Timmermans was an international statesman with a real a chance at scoring the Netherland’s premiership, 23 years since the last government led by Social Democrats. But for Dutch voters, he was unable to shake his reputation as an outsider and elitist. And it was precisely that international experience that doomed him as a stodgy statesman in The Hague. As a European commissioner for nearly a decade, half of it spent as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s second-in-command, Timmermans delivered the flagship EU Green Deal package to fight climate change. The ailing GreenLeft-Labor alliance — which only recently began an official merger process — also put stock in Timmermans, bringing him back home to lead the charge against the surge of far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) in the national election of 2023. But his party failed to win the top slot, and was sidelined in government formation. Party leaders on the right demonized Timmermans and ran a hate campaign against him. | Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP via Getty Images Party leaders on the right demonized Timmermans, branding him as a green fanatic who would misspend taxpayer cash, should he be given the chance to govern. Dilan Yeşilgöz, the leader of Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), called him “arrogant” and “elitist” on several occasions — as did other leaders. Hopes for Timmerman rose again this past June when the right-wing government, led by Geert Wilders’ PVV, collapsed. With all major parties now pledging to sideline the far right, and with favorable polls placing his party second after PVV, Timmermans seemed to have another shot at leading the next Dutch government. But much as he tried, Timmermans failed to get rid of his EU past and lead his own country. BRUSSELS ARROGANCE During the EU election in 2019, Timmermans was the lead candidate of the European Socialists, campaigning across EU countries and on many occasions speaking the local tongue — as he is fluent in six languages. This impressive international flair earned him supporters in Brussels — but not so much in his home country. Since his return to Dutch politics, Timmermans’ problem has been that he is seen as an intellectual focused on foreign affairs, coming from the outside to lecture Dutch voters, campaign expert Alex Klusman and Leiden University politics professor Sarah de Lange told POLITICO ahead of the vote. “He has a handicap, because he’s perceived as this relatively well-off cosmopolitan” — an image that creates tension with the idea of defending “the interests of ordinary Dutch citizens,” said de Lange. Over the years, Timmermans has grappled with being seen as arrogant after years of keeping his head out of the country — first, as state secretary of EU affairs and minister of foreign affairs for seven years, followed by his tenure at the European Commission for nine years, said Klusman, who is the CEO of the BKB campaigning agency. When he came back to the Netherlands in 2023, Dutch citizens saw Timmermans as someone who was lecturing them — “telling them what to do, and at the same time somebody who had lost complete contact with what the Netherlands had become,” Klusman said. By that time, Klusman pointed out, the country had become widely dominated by right-wing politicians distrustful of the EU. Timmermans indeed worked hard to change his image. He sought to convey a more energetic, healthier politician campaigning across the country. | Dingena Mol/ANP/AFP via Getty Images For a man who had been in charge of devising the core of the Green Deal — now used in a counter-campaign by portraying it as killing Europe’s businesses — it was not a smooth landing. An article by Dutch newspaper NRC ahead of the vote argued that GreenLeft-Labor is increasingly associated with words like elitist, cosmopolitan and moralistic. “This image, partly the result of years of hard work by Geert Wilders, has stuck with many voters,” the analysis said. “GreenLeft-Labor is finding it difficult to shake that off.” Timmermans himself was keenly aware of that image, which he fought hard to leave behind. The perception of him as an outsider in his own country, Timmermans said when asked by POLITICO prior to the Dutch vote, “was very relevant two years ago when I came back — but last year, year-and-a-half, this has not been an issue.” “People remember that I was in government, that I was in the European Commission. But it’s no longer ‘the guy who comes to lecture us,’ because I’ve been active in Dutch politics again for two full years in the forefront of national politics,” he added. FAILED MAKEOVER Timmermans indeed worked hard to change his image. He sought to convey a more energetic, healthier politician campaigning across the country, while living in his hometown Maastricht to show he is connected to his roots. That makeover included dramatic weight loss after a gastric bypass surgery he underwent a year ago — which he descrribed at length in an interview with Dutch daily De Telegraaf, known to be especially critical of Timmermans, to try make him more palatable to right-wing voters.  But, according to Klusman, key for Timmermans were the “two years of humbleness lessons” doing parliamentary work as opposition leader after he lost the election in 2023. “In the beginning, he would never say that he wasn’t right, that he made a wrong remark or a wrong position in a debate,” said Klusman. But “now he’d think, and then he’d say, ‘no, I made a mistake.’” Timmermans began to listen instead of lecture, Klusman added. As the EU’s Green Deal architect, he brought the message home by focusing on the social aspects of climate change — for example, Timmermans tapped the narrative that building out renewable energy will reduce the energy bills for Dutch households. But despite all efforts, personal opinion ratings a few days before the election showed the wider Dutch population did not like Timmermans, giving him among the lowest grades on Oct. 27. “He is clearly not perceived as a new Timmermans,” said de Lange. “He’s very much perceived as the same figure he was in 2023” — as a party leader with strong credentials as a minister and a commissioner — “but far less as a fighter in politics and campaigning,” she concluded. Eva Hartog and Hanne Cokelaere contributed to this report.

HOW TO WATCH THE DUTCH ELECTION LIKE A PRO POLITICO lays out everything you need to know about a critical vote that is currently too close to call, as far-right Geert Wilders takes on the mainstream again. By EVA HARTOG Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO Europe is holding its breath: Will the Netherlands swing left or maintain its rightward course? The Dutch head to the polls Wednesday for a vote that could cement the far right as the most popular political party in the Netherlands — and expose the wider struggle European centrists face to beat back anti-establishment forces. But even if anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders wins the election, as current opinion polls suggest he might, he is short of allies and has next to no chance of becoming prime minister, or even being in government — likely setting off a scramble to form a coalition that excludes the far right. The last Dutch government was in office for less than a year — 336 days to be exact — before it collapsed, triggering the third election in five years, as the Netherlands struggles to govern itself. To get you prepared for more drama, we’ve compiled this essential guide to everything you need to know ahead of the big reveal Wednesday evening. WHO’S RUNNING? Twenty-seven parties spanning the political spectrum will be competing for 150 seats in parliament, and a chance at having one of their own appointed as Dutch prime minister. WHEN DO WE GET THE RESULTS? Polls open Wednesday at 7:30 a.m. CET and close at 9 p.m. Exit polls are announced as soon as voting ends — and around midnight, national news agency ANP publishes preliminary results. Figures per municipality will trickle in over the course of the evening, and final results can be expected the next day. WHAT SHOULD I WATCH OUT FOR? The main question is not just whether Dutch voters will lean left or right, but also which of the many competing parties on each side they’ll go for. Whether supporters of the far-right populist Party for Freedom (PVV) will stick with founder Geert Wilders, shift to another hard-right or right-wing party, or stay home altogether will be critical. In short: it’s a political battle royal. WHAT ARE THE POLLS SAYING?  For weeks, polls have suggested that the PVV will come out on top — while its former coalition partner, the center-right liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), is lagging. The centrist D66 is having a real moment, with all eyes on its leader Rob Jetten, who is giving the large traditional parties a run for their money in his bid to become the party’s first prime minister in Dutch history. THE NETHERLANDS NATIONAL PARLIAMENT ELECTION POLL OF POLLS All 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year 6 Months Smooth Kalman For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls. In a tightly contested election, the Christian Democratic Appeal’s down-to-earth Henri Bontenbal is another candidate who has been floated as the potential next prime minister — given no one wants to team up with Wilders — a prospect that would’ve shocked anyone watching two years ago when voters ditched the conservative CDA en masse Green-Left Labor, led by veteran politician Frans Timmermans, is also in the mix. But as the Dutch say: Don’t sell the hide before the bear is shot. In the last election, most voters didn’t make up their minds until the final moments. This means that for Wilders especially, turnout will be critical. No matter what his result, he is expected to be frozen out of coalition talks, having burned too many bridges in The Hague. If he wins the most votes but is still sidelined from government, he’s likely to use it as ammunition to argue his followers are being ignored and Dutch democracy is dead. A RECAP The Dutch are still reeling from the electoral earthquake that upended the political landscape in 2023, when Wilders’ PVV won the most votes for the first time ever.  After decades of being politically sidelined for its anti-Islam, anti-immigrant and anti-establishment standpoints, the PVV was suddenly at the center of the most right-wing government in modern Dutch history.  To form a coalition, it teamed up with three other forces right of center, including the VVD and two smaller newcomer parties. But from Day One, the alliance was plagued by infighting and public drama worthy of a soap opera. And Wilders, considered too toxic for the post of prime minister, criticized his own coalition relentlessly from the parliament benches. And since we’re already dragging up old cows out of the ditch (Nederglish for bringing up old grievances) … … THE (MOST RECENT) COLLAPSE That brings us to this past June, when Wilders suddenly quit the coalition, arguing it wasn’t strict enough on migration despite the fact that the asylum and migration minister wore a PVV badge. The question now is: Will Dutch voters opt for stability by moving back to the center, or will they forgive Wilders for triggering a political meltdown and opt for more far-right disruption? For weeks, polls have suggested that the PVV will be the big winner. | Carl Court/Getty Images The answer could have wide-ranging repercussions.  In a September report, the group Democracy Monitor warned of “urgent” democratic backsliding in the Netherlands, citing, among other factors, increased support for authoritarian leadership styles and declining public trust in politics overall.  WHAT ARE THE CAMPAIGN ISSUES?  Unsurprisingly, after the last two Cabinets collapsed over migration, limiting the number of asylum-seekers in the Netherlands is a central topic. One one end of the spectrum, the PVV is calling for a complete asylum ban (which goes against EU rules); while, on the other side, Green-Left Labor proposes a refugee quota and cooperation with Brussels.  Other major matters dominating the debate include housing, health care and — to a lesser extent — the climate. There is broad agreement on raising defense spending to the NATO target of 5 percent of gross domestic product, though parties disagree on exactly how to finance this increase. Overall, the campaign has been rather tepid. VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz took on a cursing Wilders in a game of Mario Kart; D66’s Rob Jetten showed off his IQ in a TV game show; and CDA’s Bontenbal tried to charm online voters with a video of him making a his own kapsalon.  But the temperature has risen somewhat in the last few days, with Timmermans threatening legal action after media linked PVV parliamentarians to an AI-driven attack against him online, while rising star Jetten was reprimanded by a TV host for making a “sexist” remark about a Dutch princess. SO, WILL THE DUTCH HAVE A NEW LEADER THE DAY AFTER THE VOTE?  Ha! No.  The election result is only the starting gun for a long and convoluted negotiation process that rivals the choosing of a new pope. First, a scout is appointed to explore which parties could work together based on their electoral result and their views (a majority coalition requires 76 seats). Then, the baton is passed to a so-called informateur, who takes the talks a step further and draws up a preliminary coalition agreement.  45,000 demonstrators marched demanding the Dutch government improve its policy on climate change, just three days before the Dutch general election. | Charles M. Vella/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images Finally, the informateur is replaced with a formateur, who is usually also the next prime minister, and who divvies up various ministries across the coalition parties. Once the Cabinet is assembled, they pay a traditional visit to the Dutch King and — voilà—white smoke. WHEN WILL WE KNOW WHAT THE NEXT GOVERNMENT WILL LOOK LIKE?  That is anyone’s guess. The last Cabinet formation took 223 days. The all-time record stands at 299 days. (If that makes your jaw drop, we kindly refer you to neighboring Belgium, where the record is 541 days.)  If we Dutch people can manage it, you won’t have to read another one of these again until the next planned election — in four years.  Koen Verhelst contributed to this report.

The European Central Bank’s staff union is taking the bank to court, accusing ECB management of trying to silence and intimidate its representatives in violation of the principles of European democracy. The case, lodged with the European Court of Justice on Oct. 13, marks the latest escalation in a battle between union representatives and management, where relations have deteriorated since Christine Lagarde took over as ECB president in 2019. The action contests a series of letters the bank addressed to the International and European Public Services Organization (IPSO) union and one of its senior representatives “restricting staff and union representatives from speaking publicly about workplace concerns, such as favoritism and the ‘culture of fear’ at the ECB,” the union said in a statement. These letters constitute “an unlawful interference” with basic freedoms guaranteed by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights, the union said. “Freedom of expression and association are not privileges; they are the foundation of the European project.” An ECB spokesperson said the bank does not comment on court cases, but that it “is firmly committed to the freedom of expression and the rule of law, operating within a clear employment framework that is closely aligned with EU Staff Regulations and is subject to European Court of Justice scrutiny.” The first letter, signed by the ECB’s Chief Services Officer Myriam Moufakkir, came in response to an interview given by union spokesperson Carlos Bowles to Germany’s Boersen-Zeitung daily paper, published May 7. In it, Bowles had warned that a culture of fear may contribute to self-censorship, groupthink and poor policy decisions. The interview came at a time when the ECB’s failure to anticipate the worst bout of inflation in half a century had provoked widespread and public soul-searching by policymakers. It also followed a union survey in which around two-thirds of respondents said being in the good graces of powerful figures was the key to career advancement at the ECB, rather than job performance.   IPSO IS A FOUR-LETTER WORD According to the IPSO union, Moufakkir responded with a letter stressing that staff and union representatives must not make public claims of a “culture of fear” within the institution or its possible effects on ECB operations — including its forecasting work, which had come under especially intense scrutiny. It also accused Bowles of breaching his duty of loyalty under the ECB’s internal code of conduct, and instructed him to refrain from public statements that could “damage the ECB’s reputation.” A later letter by Moufakkir, addressed to IPSO dated Aug. 1 and seen by POLITICO, spells out the thinking. In it she stresses that the right of “staff representatives … to address the media without prior approval … applies exclusively to ‘matters falling within their mandate’. It does not apply to the ECB’s conduct of monetary policy, including its response to inflation.” In his interview, Bowles made no reference to current or future policy but rather to a work environment that he said fostered groupthink. Lagarde herself had warned against such risks, denouncing economists the previous year in Davos as a “tribal clique” and arguing that a diversity of views leads to better outcomes. Bowles had made similar statements to the media before, such as in an interview with the Handelsblatt daily paper published in January 2016, without eliciting any reaction from the bank’s management. Contacted by POLITICO for this story, the ECB said it had “stringent measures to ensure analytical work meets the highest standards of academic rigor and objectivity, which are essential to the ECB’s mandate of price stability and banking supervision.” Moufakkir suggested that Bowles’ comments undermine trust in the ECB and that this trust is crucial if the ECB is to deliver on its mandate. “Freedom of expression, which constitutes a fundamental right, does not override the duty of loyalty to which all ECB staff are bound,” she argued. Bowles rejected that framing, arguing in a letter to Moufakkir that he had a “professional obligation” to address such issues and their impact on the ECB’s capacity to fulfil its mission. PAPER TRAIL The trouble, according to the union, is that Moufakkir addressed the first two letters to an individual union representative (Bowles) who was speaking on its behalf, effectively undermining the union’s collective voice.  In her email, the union said, Moufakkir also “heavily misrepresented” Bowles’s comments and accused him of misconduct without affording him a hearing. In her letter from Aug. 1, Moufakkir maintained that her original letter to Bowles “was not a formal decision” to be recorded in his personal file, but rather a “reminder and clarification of applicable rules.”  “Its purpose was not to intimidate or silence Mr Bowles but to highlight to him the importance of prudence and external communications about ECB matters,” she wrote. The union said it sees this framing as an effort by the ECB to shield itself from judicial review: the letter addressed to Bowles was marked ECB-CONFIDENTIAL and Personal, conveying the impression of an official document. According to a person familiar with the matter, a special appeal launched by Bowles to the executive board to retract Moufakkir’s instruction has since been dismissed — without addressing its substance — because the letters had no binding legal effect and were therefore inadmissible. That has now prompted the union to turn to the ECJ; a response to a second appeal by Bowles remains outstanding. The union said that what it perceived as attempts by the ECB to silence union representatives have succeeded: Previously scheduled media interviews have been “cancelled due to fear of retaliation.” When contacted for comment, Bowles declined, citing the same reason. WHAT COMES NEXT? The ECB will have two months to submit its defense to the court. As an EU institution, the ECB is neither subject to German labor laws nor to similar rules in other EU member states and instead enjoys extensive scope to set and interpret its own rules. Out of 91 employment-related court cases since the bank’s inception, the ECB has won 71. Regardless of the legal implications, the union warned that the ECB’s approach undermines its institutional integrity and damages its credibility.  “Silencing staff representatives or whistleblowers prevents legitimate issues from being addressed and erodes trust in the institution,” it said. “Reputation cannot be protected by censorship — it must be earned through sound governance, transparency and open dialogue.” It sees the letter as part of a broader pattern in which the ECB has sought to restrict trade union activity and control staff representation, including planned changes to a representation framework that would limit the participation of union members in the ECB staff committee. IPSO is the sole trade union recognized by the ECB and holds seven out of the nine seats on the ECB’s staff committee, which is elected by all ECB staff. The ECB, for its part, has rejected much of the criticism emerging from survey organized by the union and the staff committee, which showed widespread distrust of leadership, surging burnout levels, and complaints about favoritism. The ECB has called the surveys methodologically flawed and unreliable.