LONDON — The Iranian regime is warning it will attack European cities in any country that joins Donald Trump’s military operation and governments across the region are stepping up security in response. So far, Iranian drones have already targeted Cyprus, with one striking a British Royal Air Force base on the island, and others shot down before they could hit. That prompted the U.K., France and Greece to send jets, warships and helicopters to Cyprus to protect the country from further drone attacks. But with the British, French and German leaders saying they are ready to launch defensive military action in the Middle East, Tehran threatened to retaliate against these countries with attacks on European soil. “It would be an act of war. Any such act against Iran would be regarded as complicity with the aggressors. It would be regarded as an act of war against Iran,” Esmail Baghaei, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, told Iranian state media. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch Prime Minister who now leads NATO, warned on Tuesday that Tehran posed a threat that reached deep into Europe. “Let’s be absolutely clear-eyed to what’s happening here,” Rutte said. “Iran is close to getting its hands on a nuclear capability and on a ballistic missile capability, which is posing a threat not only to the region — the Middle East, including posing an existential threat to Israel — it is also posing a huge threat to us here in Europe.” Iran is “an exporter of chaos” responsible over decades for terrorist plots and assassination attempts, including against people living on European soil, he said.  Here, POLITICO sets out what Iran is capable of, and where European countries may be at greatest risk.  MISSILES AIMED AT ATHENS AND EVEN BERLIN According to reports, Iran has been developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, which would put European and even American territory potentially within range, said Antonio Giustozzi from the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London. It is not clear whether, under constant attack, Tehran would be able to manufacture and deploy an experimental missile like this, he said.  “Realistically, the further away you fire them, the less precise they will be,” Giustozzi told POLITICO. “Let’s say they had four or five long-range missiles. There may be some value to target something in Europe just to create some excitement and scare public opinion from intervening.”  Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal is known to include several medium-range systems that stretch to roughly 2,000 kilometers, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Threat database. The solid-fueled Sejjil and Khorramshahr missiles are both assessed to have about that range, which would extend to parts of southeastern Europe from Iranian territory, including areas of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, depending on the launch location. Romania has a U.S. missile shield site at Deveselu in the southern part of the country which was built to intercept potential missile attacks from Iran. This week, military security was stepped up at the site, according to Romania’s defense minister.  Tehran has long described 2,000 kilometers as a self-imposed ceiling for its ballistic missile program — a limit that keeps most of Europe outside of the envelope while preserving regional reach.  Defence Express, a Kyiv-based defense consultancy group, said the Khorramshahr missile may be capable of hitting targets 3,000 kilometers away if it was fitted with a lighter warhead, potentially bringing Berlin and Rome within range. However, the number of such long-range missiles in Iran’s arsenal is unlikely to be large.  ‘SHAHED’ DRONES AND TOYS PACKED WITH EXPLOSIVES  Iran has invested heavily in drone development and production, and these uncrewed projectiles may be its best flexible weapon. Iran’s “Shahed” drones have been deployed by Russian forces since the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These one-way attack drones have a range claimed to be as much as 2,500 kilometers.  To reach targets inside European territory they would need to fly at low altitude across countries such as Turkey and Jordan, though Cyprus has already found out it is within range. Analysts believe the drone that hit U.K.’s RAF Akrotiri air base in Cyprus was likely a shahed-type, and may have been fired from Lebanon by Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy.  But Giustozzi said commercially available drones — even toys — could be used to cause havoc inside Europe. Iran is known to have a network of sleeper agents operating across many countries in Europe, he said, who use criminal groups to carry out attacks.  They could be tasked with a coordinated effort to fly drones over civilian airports, forcing flights to be halted and causing chaos to air traffic across Europe, he said. This would be cheap and easy to do. More ambitious attacks could include striking military targets with drones loaded with explosives. A residential building and cars are damaged by a Shahed drone attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, last month. The drones have been deployed by Russian forces since the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. | Pavlo Pakhomenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images But such risk may be low, Giustozzi said, as Iran may not have been able to smuggle bomb making components into European countries as this has not been its primary mode of operation in the region in recent years.  HIT SQUADS AND TERRORISTS  Tehran’s recent focus has been on intimidating and targeting people and groups who are critical of the regime, particularly among the large Iranian diaspora dispersed widely across European countries, according to analysts.  According to an intelligence summary from one Western government, Iran has a long record of plots to assassinate and attack targets inside Europe. Its state-sponsored terrorism involves a mix of direct operations by Iranian forces and, according to the intelligence summary, a growing reliance on organized criminal gangs to maintain “plausible deniability.”  In the past decade, incidents have included the arrest of Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi for providing explosives to a couple tasked with bombing a large rally of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Assadi was sentenced to 20 years in prison.  After massive cyberattacks against state infrastructure, the Albanian government formally severed all ties with Iran in 2022. Four years earlier, Albania expelled the Iranian ambassador and several diplomats for plotting a truck bomb attack against an Iranian dissident camp. The Dutch government accused Iran of involvement in the targeted killing of two dissidents, in 2015 and 2017.  Suspected Iranian-backed assassination plots and other attacks have also been reported in Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Sweden, and the U.K., among other countries in Europe.  CYBER ATTACKS  The threat to Europeans from Iran is not just physical, with the regime long being regarded as a capable actor in cyber warfare.   Experts and officials warned Iran could launch fresh cyber operations against Europe in the wake of the war started by the U.S. and Israel, either by targeting governments directly or by hitting critical infrastructure operators.  “We have to monitor now the situation very carefully when it comes to our cyber security and especially our critical infrastructure,” European Commission Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen told POLITICO. “We know that the online dimension is also very important, the recruiting channel and especially the propaganda is also spread very much online.” Iran is typically seen as one of the big four cyber adversaries to the West — alongside Russia, China and North Korea. So far, however, there is little evidence to suggest it’s actively targeting Europe. In fact, Iran’s cyber activity has largely stopped since the U.S. bombing began, according to one senior European cybersecurity official, granted anonymity to discuss ongoing assessments.  If and when European countries make their support for U.S. and Israeli activities more explicit, that will likely draw them into the firing line, cyber industry officials said. “Europe should definitely expect that exactly what happened in the Gulf could happen and should happen in Europe,” said Gil Messing, chief of staff at Israeli cyber firm Check Point. EU Commissioner Henna Virkkunen spoke of the need to monitor cyber security and especially critical infrastructure. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images Messing said his firm is already seeing evidence of cyberattacks in Cyprus, the only EU country that Iran has targeted with physical attacks so far. There’s no evidence of attacks in other European countries but it’s likely coming down the tracks, he said. And if attacks do take place, Iran’s capabilities, though lessened in recent years, remain significant, experts said. Iran’s security and intelligence services have cyber units comprising hundreds of people, with tens of millions of dollars of funding, Messing said. “If the regime lasts,” the senior official quoted above said, “they will be back.” Victor Goury-Laffont, Laura Kayali, Antoaneta Roussi, Joshua Berlinger and Sebastian Starcevic contributed reporting.

Sweden has named Russia as its greatest threat and warns that Moscow’s increasingly risky behavior could trigger a dangerous escalation.    An annual report released Tuesday by the country’s Military Intelligence and Security Service flagged airspace violations, sabotage and cyber operations as examples of Russia’s belligerent actions in Sweden’s neighborhood, including the Baltic Sea.   “Russia is the primary military threat to Sweden and NATO,” the report stated, adding this threat was “serious and concrete” and describing Moscow’s conduct as “opportunistic and aggressive.” The Swedish assessment comes after Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service last week described Russia as “dangerous despite its incompetence” in its own annual review.   But the Estonian review also cautioned against “panic,” saying it saw no evidence that Russia intended to attack it or NATO in the coming year and projecting that it was unlikely to do so in the near future, given Europe’s ramped-up defense measures. During a background briefing last week attended by POLITICO, a senior NATO official echoed that view.  “What protects us is the strength of the alliance and the faith that we and Russia have in Article 5 [NATO’s collective defense clause]” as well as recent pledges by NATO members to boost defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP, the senior official said. “So long as we continue to make the investments, that’s what keeps us on the side of the equation in which Russia wouldn’t dare.” Both the Estonian report and the senior NATO official, however, noted that Russia has dramatically increased artillery production, a sign that Moscow will continue to pose a threat even if peace is reached in Ukraine. Russia is “preparing for its next war,” the Estonian report claimed, estimating that its production of shells and other artillery has increased 17-fold since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, now entering its fifth year. “You don’t simply turn all that off the day the war ends,” the senior NATO official said. “Russia will end up in some areas stronger as a military force than when it began” its war against Ukraine.

MUNICH — Europe must be able to strike back in cyberspace, as the strategy to deter adversaries is no longer enough, the EU executive’s tech and security chief told POLITICO. “It’s not enough that we are just defending … We also have to have offensive capacity,” the European Commission’s Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen said in an interview on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday. For years, European capitals have held back from stating publicly that they support offensive cyber operations — known as “hacking back” — because of fears that such operations could trigger retaliation and escalation from countries like Russia, China and others. But the tide is turning, as EU states including Germany, Latvia and others warm to the idea of conducting offensive cyber operations. The European Commission also mentioned the need for both defensive and offensive cyber capabilities in its defense white paper in December. Virkkunen said the Commission is also identifying critical areas and industries where Europe wants more control over its data. It is part of a broader push to reduce dependence on foreign technology and build a homegrown tech and cyber industry in Europe. “We don’t want to have risky dependencies in any critical fields,” she said. “That doesn’t mean we plan to do everything on our own. When we don’t have certain capacities ourselves, we are very willing to work with like-minded partners to build resilient supply chains.”

Listen on * Spotify * Apple Music * Amazon Music Kriege werden längst auch unsichtbar geführt: im Netz, über Desinformation, Sabotage und Angriffe auf kritische Infrastruktur. Cyberattacken auf Flughäfen, Stromnetze und Behörden zeigen, wie real die Bedrohung bereits ist. In diesem Berlin Playbook Spezial spricht Rixa Fürsen mit Thomas Daum, Vizeadmiral der Bundeswehr und Inspekteur für Cyber- und Informationsraum, über die neue Eskalationsstufe hybrider Angriffe. Daum erklärt, warum Cyberangriffe heute gezielt Unruhe stiften sollen, wie eng sie mit Desinformation verzahnt sind und weshalb Deutschland sich nicht erst auf das oft genannte Jahr 2029, sondern auf frühere Szenarien einstellen muss. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. POLITICO Deutschland – ein Angebot der Axel Springer Deutschland GmbH Axel-Springer-Straße 65, 10888 Berlin Tel: +49 (30) 2591 0 information@axelspringer.de Sitz: Amtsgericht Berlin-Charlottenburg, HRB 196159 B USt-IdNr: DE 214 852 390 Geschäftsführer: Carolin Hulshoff Pol, Mathias Sanchez Luna

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that the U.S. used cyberattacks or other technical capabilities to cut power off in Caracas during strikes on the Venezuelan capital that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. If true, it would mark one of the most public uses of U.S. cyber power against another nation in recent memory. These operations are typically highly classified, and the U.S. is considered one of the most advanced nations in cyberspace operations globally. “It was dark, the lights of Caracas were largely turned off due to a certain expertise that we have, it was dark, and it was deadly,” Trump said during a press conference at Mar-a-Lago detailing the operation. Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during the same press conference that U.S. Cyber Command, U.S. Space Command and combatant commands “began layering different effects” to “create a pathway” for U.S. forces flying into the country early Saturday. Caine did not elaborate on what those “effects” entailed. Spokespeople for the White House, Cyber Command and Space Command did not respond to requests for comment on the cyber operations in Venezuela. Internet tracking group NetBlocks reported a loss of internet connectivity in Caracas during power cuts early Saturday morning. Alp Toker, founder of NetBlocks, said in an email Saturday that if cyberattacks contributed to these outages, “it will have been targeted, not impacting the broader network space.” Saturday’s offensive marked the latest cyberattack targeting Venezuelan infrastructure in recent weeks. Venezuelan national oil and gas company PDVSA, or Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A., last month accused the U.S. government of carrying out a cyberattack that led to delays in operations across the country. The Trump administration has not publicly commented on whether the U.S. was involved in the December attack. PDVSA said its facilities were not damaged in the strikes on Saturday.

In the desolate Arctic desert of Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, Europeans are building defenses against a new, up-and-coming security threat: space hacks. A Lithuanian company called Astrolight is constructing a ground station, with support from the European Space Agency, that will use laser beams to download voluminous data from satellites in a fast and secure manner, it announced last month.  It’s just one example of how Europe is moving to harden the security of its satellites, as rising geopolitical tensions and an expanding spectrum of hybrid threats are pushing space communications to the heart of the bloc’s security plans. For years, satellite infrastructure was treated by policymakers as a technical utility rather than a strategic asset. That changed in 2022, when a cyberattack on the Viasat satellite network coincided with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.   Satellites have since become popular targets for interference, espionage and disruption. The European Commission in June warned that space was becoming “more contested,” flagging increasing cyberattacks and attempts at electronic interference targeting satellites and ground stations. Germany and the United Kingdom warned earlier this year of the growing threat posed by Russian and Chinese space satellites, which are regularly spotted spying on their satellites.  EU governments are now racing to boost their resilience and reduce reliance on foreign technology, both through regulations like the new Space Act and investments in critical infrastructure. The threat is crystal clear in Greenland, Laurynas Mačiulis, the chief executive officer of Astrolight, said. “The problem today is that around 80 percent of all the [space data] traffic is downlinked to a single location in Svalbard, which is an island shared between different countries, including Russia,” he said in an interview. Europe’s main Arctic ground station sits in Svalbard and supports both the navigation systems of Galileo and Copernicus. While the location is strategic, it is also extremely sensitive due to nearby Russian and Chinese activities. Crucially, the station relies on a single undersea cable to connect to the internet, which has been damaged several times. “In case of intentional or unintentional damage of this cable, you lose access to most of the geo-intelligence satellites, which is, of course, very critical. So our aim is to deploy a complementary satellite ground station up in Greenland,” Mačiulis said. THE MUSK OF IT ALL A centerpiece of Europe’s ambitions to have secure, European satellite communication is IRIS², a multibillion-euro secure connectivity constellation pitched in 2022 and designed to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system. “Today, communications — for instance in Ukraine — are far too dependent on Starlink,” said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the founding chairman of political consultancy Rasmussen Global, speaking at an event in Brussels in November. “That dependence rests on the shifting ideas of an American billionaire. That’s too risky. We have to build a secure communications system that is independent of the United States.” The European system, which will consist of 18 satellites operating in low and medium Earth orbit, aims to provide Europe with fast and encrypted communication. “Even if someone intercepts the signal [of IRIS² ], they will not be able to decrypt it,” Piero Angeletti, head of the Secure Connectivity Space Segment Office at the European Space Agency, told POLITICO. “This will allow us to have a secure system that is also certified and accredited by the national security entities.” The challenge is that IRIS² is still at least four years away from becoming operational. WHO’S IN CHARGE? While Europe beefs up its secure satellite systems, governments are still streamlining how they can coordinate cyber defenses and space security. In many cases, that falls to both space or cyber commands, which, unlike traditional military units, are relatively new and often still being built out. Clémence Poirier, a cyberdefense researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, said that EU countries must now focus on maturing them. “European states need to keep developing those commands,” she told POLITICO. “Making sure that they coordinate their action, that there are clear mandates and responsibilities when it comes to cyber security, cyber defensive operations, cyber offensive operations, and also when it comes to monitoring the threat.” Industry, too, is struggling to fill the gaps. Most cybersecurity firms do not treat space as a sector in its own right, leaving satellite operators in a blind spot. Instead, space systems are folded into other categories: Earth-observation satellites often fall under environmental services, satellite TV under media, and broadband constellations like Starlink under internet services. That fragmentation makes it harder for space companies to assess risk, update threat models or understand who they need to defend against. It also complicates incident response: while advanced tools exist for defending against cyberattacks on terrestrial networks, those tools often do not translate well to space systems. “Cybersecurity in space is a bit different,” Poirier added. “You cannot just implement whatever solution you have for your computers on Earth and just deploy that to your satellite.”

BRUSSELS — The European Union should stay the course to create a joint intelligence agency by building trust among national spy services, a senior adviser to the bloc on its security and crisis response plans has warned. “If we can build enough trust, we can also build the agency,” former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told POLITICO in an interview. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tapped Niinistö last year to draft a report on how the EU could strengthen its civilian and defense preparedness in an increasingly unpredictable world — similar to the advisory reports penned by former Italian premiers Mario Draghi on Europe’s competitiveness problem and Enrico Letta on the future of the EU’s single market. Niinistö’s report, published one year ago this Thursday, recommended creating a “fully fledged intelligence cooperation service” at the EU level to bridge gaps between national agencies and improve early warning capabilities. Europe is seeking to bolster its joint intelligence capabilities as it faces a crisis in relations with the United States and a growing threat from Russia. In the past year, many national capitals have embedded intelligence officials in their Brussels representation offices and the European Union’s in-house intelligence unit has started briefing top-level officials. But security services have deep, decades-old trust issues. New revelations that Hungarian intelligence officials disguised as diplomats tried to infiltrate the EU institutions show how governments within the EU still keep close watch over each other. “The idea of a European intelligence agency, it is more for the future and we have to develop toward that,” Niinistö acknowledged. Since publishing his report, the European Commission came out with the Preparedness Union Strategy in May to better anticipate, prevent, and respond to hybrid threats including cyberattacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns and the impact of climate change. It also announced the ReArm Europe plan, a €800 billion initiative to boost European defense spending and military readiness. COMING TO GRIPS WITH WAR The 77-year-old statesman said Europeans should get used to the idea of war in order to allow governments to scale up their defenses. “My ideal situation is that people in Europe — all over Europe — understand that security is the foundation of everything,” Niinistö said, adding he “would like to see a change of mindset.” For Niinistö, the challenge is not only political but psychological. Democracies, he noted, move at the pace of public opinion — and without broad recognition of the need for stronger defenses, governments will struggle to act decisively. “To a certain extent, I think it’s developing positively — that people, even in countries not located on the frontline with Russia, start to understand why it is important,” he said. Niinistö stepped down as president in 2024. | Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images Niinistö stepped down as president in 2024. He steered Finland through its NATO accession, which was completed in April 2023. The former president pointed to shifting global dynamics. He cited the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin as evidence that China is seeking to project political as well as military power on the world stage, as it pushed for a“fairer multipolar world” and tighter security cooperation with members. “That was a clear message,” he said. The former Finnish leader warned that Europe can no longer afford to rely indefinitely on the United States for its protection. Washington, he noted, is increasingly preoccupied with other regions, which would leave Europe more exposed in the years ahead. “Europe needs to be able to take care of itself by developing its own capabilities,” Niinistö said. “This is a major question for us Europeans in the future — how much can we take care of ourselves for our security, information, and technology?” “You have to be able to cooperate with your friends,” he added, “but you also have to be able to work alone — in case your friends are more active elsewhere.”

Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, the author of the award-winning “Goodbye Globalization” and a regular columnist for POLITICO. Seven years ago, Sweden made global headlines with “In Case of Crisis or War” — a crisis preparedness leaflet sent to all households in the country. Unsurprisingly, preparedness leaflets have become a trend across Europe since then. But now, Sweden is ahead of the game once more, this time with a preparedness leaflet specifically for businesses. Informing companies about threats that could harm them, and how they can prepare, makes perfect sense. And in today’s geopolitical reality, it’s becoming indispensable. I remember when “In Case of Crisis or War” was first published in 2018: The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, or MSB, sent the leaflet out by post to every single home. The use of snail mail wasn’t accidental — in a crisis, there could be devastating cyberattacks that would prevent people from accessing information online. The leaflet — an updated version of the Cold War-era “In Case of War” — contained information about all manner of possible harm, along with information about how to best prepare and protect oneself. Then, there was the key statement: “If Sweden is attacked, we will never surrender. Any suggestion to the contrary is false.” Over the top, suggested some outside observers derisively. Why cause panic among people? But, oh, what folly! Preparedness leaflets have been used elsewhere too. I came to appreciate preparedness education during my years as a resident of San Francisco — a city prone to earthquakes. On buses, at bus stops and online, residents like me were constantly reminded that an earthquake could strike at any moment and we were told how to prepare, what to do while the earthquake was happening, how to find loved ones afterward and how to fend for ourselves for up to three days after a tremor. The city’s then-Mayor Gavin Newsom had made disaster preparedness a key part of his program and to this day, I know exactly what items to always have at home in case of a crisis: Water, blankets, flashlights, canned food and a hand-cranked radio. And those items are the same, whether the crisis is an earthquake, a cyberattack or a military assault. Other earthquake-prone cities and regions disseminate similar preparedness advice — as do a fast-growing number of countries, now facing threats from hostile states. Poland, as it happens, published its new leaflet just a few days before Russia’s drones entered its airspace. But these preparedness instructions have generally focused on citizens and households; businesses have to come up with their own preparedness plans against whatever Russia or other hostile states and their proxies think up — and against extreme weather events too. That’s a lot of hostile activity. In the past couple years alone, undersea cables have been damaged under mysterious circumstances; a Polish shopping mall and a Lithuanian Ikea store have been subject to arson attacks; drones have been circling above weapons-manufacturing facilities; and a defense-manufacturing CEO has been the target of an assassination plot; just to name a few incidents. San Francisco’s then-Mayor Gavin Newsom had made disaster preparedness a key part of his program. | Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images It’s no wonder geopolitical threats are causing alarm to the private sector. Global insurance broker Willis Towers Watson’s 2025 Political Risk Survey, which focuses on multinationals, found that the political risk losses in 2023 — the most recent year for which data is available — were at their highest level since the survey began. Companies are particularly concerned about economic retaliation, state-linked cyberattacks and state-linked attacks on infrastructure in the area of gray-zone aggression. Yes, businesses around Europe receive warnings and updates from their governments, and large businesses have crisis managers and run crisis management exercises for their staff. But there was no national preparedness guide for businesses — until now. MSB’s preparedness leaflet directed at Sweden’s companies is breaking new ground. It will feature the same kind of easy-to-implement advice as “In Case of Crisis or War,” and it will be just as useful for family-run shops as it is for multinationals, helping companies to keep operating matters far beyond the businesses themselves. By targeting the private sector, hostile states can quickly bring countries to a grinding and discombobulating halt. That must not happen — and preventing should involve both governments and the companies themselves. Naturally, a leaflet is only the beginning. As I’ve written before, governments would do well to conduct tabletop preparedness exercises with businesses — Sweden and the Czech Republic are ahead on this — and simulation exercises would be even better. But a leaflet is a fabulous cost-effective start. It’s also powerful deterrence-signaling to prospective attackers. And in issuing its leaflet, Sweden is signaling that targeting the country’s businesses won’t be as effective as would-be attackers would wish. (The leaflet, by the way, will be blue. The leaflet for private citizens was yellow. Get it? The colors, too, are a powerful message.)

Russia is waging a campaign to “unsettle” citizens by flying drones into European airspace, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned Wednesday. “Something new and dangerous is happening in our skies … This is not random harassment. It is a coherent and escalating campaign to unsettle our citizens, test our resolve, divide our Union, and weaken our support for Ukraine,” von der Leyen said in a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “And it is time to call it by its name. This is hybrid warfare.” There has been a surge in reports of unmanned aerial vehicles flying over Europe in the past month, including in Poland, Romania, Germany, Norway and Denmark. Some, such as war drones overflying Poland and Romania, have been identified as Russian, while the origin of others has been harder to determine. In response, Copenhagen last week temporarily banned drone flights, while NATO has launched an Eastern Sentry program to tackle gaps in the alliance’s air defenses. Meanwhile, von der Leyen has pitched building a drone wall to protect Europe against Russia, an idea that has drawn criticism over its feasibility and cost. But von der Leyen on Wednesday said protecting Europe’s eastern border is not enough, and a broader approach is needed. “Tackling Russia’s hybrid war is not only about traditional defense. It is about software for drones and spare parts for pipelines. It is rapid cyber-response teams and public information campaigns to spread awareness. This requires a new mindset for all of us,” she said. Europe needs to strengthen its defense industry and focus on the initiatives from member countries, such as the Prague-led ammunition initiative to deliver shells to Kyiv, von der Leyen said.

The European Commission president’s big set-piece speech of the year is upon us. The State of the Union address is where Ursula von der Leyen sets out her vision for the year ahead, and it promises to be a very challenging 12 months, for her and for Europe. So we tapped into the POLITICO newsroom’s deep knowledge of the political and policy realms and have attempted to preempt her speech by writing our own version. This is what we think she’ll say. Remember, this is not the actual State of the Union but our version of it. As it says on all speeches sent to journalists ahead of time, “please check against delivery.” Madam President, Honorable members, My fellow Europeans, This comes at a pivotal moment for Europe. We live in a world that presents many challenges for our Union; challenges that we as Europeans will have to face together. It is also a time for Europeans to decide which kind of future they wish to embrace; one of unity, one of strength, one of making our continent a better, more secure place; or one of conflict and dissent, in which we let external forces dictate the direction of our lives. There are people out there who want to destroy Europe; who side not with those of us who want a peaceful, prosperous Europe, but with our enemies. I know which path I will choose. And I believe, as I am sure you do too, that the people of Europe will take the right road. That is why, as we reflect on the State of our Union, we must acknowledge the advances we have made but also build the foundations of a more stable Europe, one that is less reliant on others in critical areas. UKRAINE AND DEFENSE Mesdames et Messieurs, les députés, Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine has presented us with challenges not seen since World War Two. As a result, we must take greater responsibility for our own security. That means investing in robust defense, safeguarding our people, and ensuring we have the resources to act when needed.  The EU’s likely message to Ukraine? We are at your side. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA Investing in European defense means investing in peace and long-term stability for current and future generations. It also means boosting technological innovation, supporting European competitiveness, promoting regional development, and powering economic growth.   Our ReArm Europe plan gives member states greater flexibility to spend more on defense while ensuring that the European defense industry can produce at speed and volume. It will also allow the rapid deployment of troops and assets across the EU. Red tape needs to be slashed to reach these aims. In a first step to simplify regulations, the Commission has already proposed a Defence Readiness Omnibus that will help untangle investment rules. However, simply spending more is not enough. Member states need to spend better, work together, and prioritize European companies. The EU will support this by helping coordinate investments and making sure that defense equipment is ‘Made in Europe’.  Yet the challenges caused by Russia are great and varied, including the threats caused by hybrid warfare attacking European infrastructure, and the increasing spread of disinformation online. We already have plans for an early-warning system and rapid response teams to help hospitals fight off cyberattacks. We can only overcome these problems by working together and, rest assured, Europe will also maintain diplomatic and, in particular, economic pressure on Russia. This week we will publish the 19th package of sanctions, as we tighten the net on those who do business with Russia. Working with our partners in the U.S., we are continuing to limit Russia’s potential and showing Vladimir Putin that we are serious about bringing an end to this war. Because a predator such as Putin can only be kept in check through strong deterrence. Our boost to defense is not just for our own security but for that of our allies and neighbors, and those who share our European values and wish to join the bloc. That is why our message to Ukraine is clear: Your future is in the European Union and we have been, and will continue to be, at your side every step of the way. REVIVING THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY Meine Damen und Herren Abgeordnete, As we look to advance our goals to boost European competitiveness, we have strong foundations such as our potential to unleash vast resources and latent technological and industrial power. I asked Mario Draghi to deliver a report on how to revive the European economy. One year ago, he delivered that report and we have been delivering on his recommendations. The year since the publication of Mario Draghi’s report has been all about cutting red tape and … boosting European competitiveness. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA As part of the Commission’s plans for the next multiannual financial framework — an ambitious and dynamic budget that will help us meet the challenges of the future — we created a €409 billion cash pot to fund Europe’s industrial revival, allowing European firms to rapidly scale up and cut red tape when accessing EU funds. And after a very clear signal from the European business sector that there is too much complexity in EU regulation, we launched the Omnibus Package to simplify legislation for sustainable finance, due diligence and taxonomy rules, and save companies €37 billion a year by 2029.   Mr. Draghi also recommended a single market for investment in the EU, and we have pushed forward plans for a Savings and Investments Union that would integrate supervision of capital markets and break down national barriers for the likes of stock exchanges and clearinghouses. The other major challenge we face is trade. The Commission has taken steps to deepen partnerships with trusted allies, partners and friends, which is an essential step in today’s uncertain geopolitical climate. We have in recent weeks secured trade deals with the United States as well as with Mexico and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries. I urge everyone in this House who believes in making our Union stronger to support these trade deals as they, and others, will help businesses across the continent, opening up our markets and diversifying our exports. The Mercosur deal alone opens up a market of over 280 million people for European exports, while the U.S. trade deal saves trade flows, saves jobs in Europe and opens up a new chapter in EU-U.S. relations. MIGRATION Señoras y señores diputados, Europe remains a place of safe refuge for those fleeing conflict and climate change. But I am of the firm belief that migration needs to be managed. That is why, after the launch of the Migration and Asylum Pact, we created a plan to streamline deportations, toughen penalties for rejected migrants who do not leave the bloc, and create hubs in countries outside the EU to house people awaiting deportation. Migration is often exploited by populists for political gain. But we want to create a system that supports those with a genuine asylum claim while making clear the rules on forced returns, and incentivizing voluntary returns. We also want to continue attracting talent from across the globe in areas where Europe is a world leader, such as in the life sciences and biotech spheres. Migration is a key issue for European citizens, but there are others. The latest Eurobarometer survey shows that the No. 1 issue Europeans want the EU institutions to resolve is the cost of living crisis. Across the continent, families are struggling to pay for homes, and this Commission is determined to do everything in its power to ease the pressure they are facing.  Migration is a key issue for European citizens. | Gene Medi/NurPhoto via Getty Images Early next year, we will present Europe’s first-ever European Affordable Housing Plan, which will aim to accelerate the construction of new homes, the renovation of existing buildings, and ensure no one sleeps on the streets by 2030. To do so, we will move to put in new measures to limit speculation, introduce regulations for short-term rentals in stressed housing markets, and cut red tape to boost public and private investments in the construction of new homes. People are also concerned about their energy bills and, here, the Commission is taking action. We must never forget Putin’s deliberate use of gas as a weapon, and that is why the EU will phase out Russian gas by 2027 thanks to the REPowerEU roadmap. As part of our deal with Washington, we will increase our energy imports from the U.S. over the next three years, a plan that is fully compatible with our medium- and long-term policy to diversify our energy sources and part of our commitment to the green agenda that so many in this House, myself included, fully support. That is why we have drawn up the Grids Package, which will come out later this year and aims to turbocharge investment in power networks, which is the key bottleneck in the uptake of more renewables. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Signore e signori, deputati, The time is coming when artificial intelligence will match human thinking. That is why this week we published a report looking at the challenges and opportunities of AI. In Europe, we must take a leading role in shaping high-impact technologies. We will make sure there is smart yet strategic regulation while creating the right incentives, including funding and investment, to prevent AI and other technologies from becoming destabilizing forces. But we must not forget our traditional industries. The automotive sector is a critical pillar of the European economy, supporting more than 13 million jobs. The industry is facing increased competition from those who have benefited from unfair subsidies, and we have taken big steps to ensure this critical sector remains competitive and made in Europe. With our Automotive Action Plan, we set a strong course for building European batteries and ensuring our companies are the technological leaders in autonomous driving. At the same time, we have made big strides in maintaining our climate goals while giving our companies the necessary flexibility to stay competitive. THE EU BUDGET Panie i panowie, posłowie, We want a stronger European Union, stronger member states, and stronger regional and city governments, and we will work with local leaders — those closest to Europe’s citizens — to ensure they get the funds they need.  Cohesion Funds have helped build our Union with bridges and railways, public sports halls and libraries. Our cohesion policy is a central pillar of the European Union, and we will ensure that it continues to bridge gaps between regions, while also earmarking funds for the cities in which nearly three-quarters of all Europeans live. But we also want to protect and promote one of the most important elements of Europe, its agriculture and farmers. With our budget proposal we are safeguarding direct payments to farmers, boosting the funding available to rural communities, and giving more money to national governments to spend on agriculture. Farmers are essential to Europe, and what matters to Europeans matters to Europe. We need a continent that is united, safe and prosperous. I believe we can rise to the challenge. Long live Europe. Thanks to Victor Jack, Sam Clark, Max Griera, Pieter Haeck, Jordyn Dahl, Aitor Hernández-Morales and Helen Collis.