Laura Thornton is the senior director for democracy programs at the McCain
Institute. She spent more than two decades in Asia and the former Soviet Union
with the National Democratic Institute.
Earlier this month, I spoke at a conference in Bucharest for Eastern Europe’s
democracy activists and leaders.
I was discussing foreign malign influence operations, particularly around
elections, highlighting Russia’s hybrid war in Moldova, when a Hungarian
participant pointed out that U.S. President Donald Trump had offered Hungary’s
illiberal strongman Viktor Orbán a one-year reprieve for complying with U.S.
sanctions for using Russian oil and gas. With Hungarian elections around the
corner and this respite being a direct relief to Orbán’s economy, “Is that not
election interference?” she asked.
The next day, while at the Moldova Security Forum in Chișinău, a Polish
government official expressed his deep concern about sharing intelligence with
the current U.S. administration. While he had great respect for the embassy in
Warsaw, he noted a lack of trust in some leaders in Washington and his worry
that intelligence would get leaked, in the worst case to Russia — as had
happened during Trump’s first term.
My week came to an end at a two-day workshop for democracy activists, all who
described the catastrophic impact that the U.S. Agency for International
Development’s (USAID) elimination had on their work, whether that be protecting
free and fair elections, combating disinformation campaigns or supporting
independent media. “It’s not just about the money. It’s the loss of the U.S. as
a democratic partner,” said one Georgian participant.
Others then described how this withdrawal had been an extraordinary gift to
Russia, China and other autocratic regimes, becoming a main focus of their
disinformation campaigns. According to one Moldovan participant, “The U.S. has
abandoned Moldova” was now a common Russian narrative, while Chinese messaging
in the global south was also capitalizing on the end of USAID to paint
Washington as an unreliable ally.
Having spent a good deal of my career tracking malign foreign actors who
undermine democracy around the world and coming up with strategies to defend
against them, this was a rude reality check. I had to ask myself: “Wait, are we
the bad guys?”
It would be naive to suggest that the U.S. has always been a good faith actor,
defending global democracy throughout its history. After all, America has
meddled in many countries’ internal struggles, supporting leaders who didn’t
have their people’s well-being or freedom in mind. But while it has fallen short
in the past, there was always broad bipartisan agreement over what the U.S.
should be: a reliable ally; a country that supports those less fortunate, stands
up against tyranny worldwide and is a beacon of freedom for human rights
defenders.
America’s values and interests were viewed as intertwined — particularly the
belief that a world with more free and open democracies would benefit the U.S.
As the late Senator John McCain famously said: “Our interests are our values,
and our values are our interests.”
At the Moldova Security Forum in Chișinău, a Polish government official
expressed his deep concern about sharing intelligence with the current U.S.
administration. | Artur Widak/Getty Images
I have proudly seen this born out in my work. I’ve lived in several countries
that have had little to offer the U.S. with regards to trade, extractive
industries or influence, and yet we supported their health, education and
agriculture programs. We also stood up for defenders of democracy and freedom
fighters around the world, with little material benefit to ourselves. I’ve
worked with hundreds of foreign aid and NGO workers in my life, and I can say
not one of them was in it for a “good trade deal” or to colonize resources.
But today’s U.S. foreign policy has broken from this approach. It has abandoned
the post-World War II consensus on allies and the value of defending freedom,
instead revolving around transactions and deal-making, wielding tariffs to
punish or reward, and defining allies based on financial benefit rather than
shared democratic values.
There are new ideological connections taking place as well — they’re just not
the democratic alliances of the past. At the Munich Security Forum earlier this
year, U.S. Vice President JD Vance chose to meet with the far-right Alternative
for Germany party rather than then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Conservative
Political Action Committee has also served as a transatlantic bridge to connect
far-right movements in Europe to those in the U.S., providing a platform to
strongmen like Orbán.
The recently released U.S. National Security Strategy explicitly embraces this
pivot away from values toward more transactional alliances, as well as a
fondness for “patriotic European parties” and a call to “resist” the region’s
“current trajectory” — a clear reference to the illiberal, far-right movements
in Europe.
Meanwhile, according to Harvard University’s school of public health, USAID’s
closure has tragically caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, while
simultaneously kneecapping the work of those fighting for freedom, human rights
and democracy. And according to Moldovan organizations I’ve spoken with, while
the EU and others continue to assist them in their fight against Russia’s hybrid
attacks ahead of this year’s September elections, the American withdrawal is de
facto helping the Kremlin’s efforts.
It should have come as no surprise to me that our partners are worried and
wondering whose side the U.S. is really on. But I also believe that while a
country’s foreign policy often reflects the priorities and values of that nation
as a whole, Americans can still find a way to shift this perception.
Alliances aren’t only built nation-to-nation — they can take place at the
subnational level, creating bonds between democratic cities or states in the
U.S. with like-minded local governments elsewhere. Just like Budapest doesn’t
reflect its anti-democratic national leadership, we can find connections and
share lessons learned.
Moreover, partnerships can be forged at the civil society level too. Many
American democracy and civic organizations, journalists and foundations firmly
believe in a pro-democracy U.S. foreign policy, and they want to build
communities with democratic actors globally.
At a meeting in Prague last month, a former German government official banged
their hand on the table, emphatically stating: “The transatlantic relationship
is dead!” And I get it.
I understand that the democratic world may well be tempted to cut the U.S. off
as an ally and partner. But to them I’d like to say that it’s not our democracy
organizations, funding organizations and broader government that abandoned them
when national leadership changed. Relationships can take on many shapes, layers
and connections, and on both sides of the Atlantic, those in support of
democracy must now find new creative avenues of cooperation and support.
I hope our friends don’t give up on us so easily.
Tag - Aid and development
Steven Everts is the director of the EU Institute for Security Studies
The intense diplomatic maneuvering to shape an endgame to the war in Ukraine has
revealed a troubling reality: Even when it comes to its own security, the EU
struggles to be a central player.
The ongoing negotiations over Ukraine’s future — a conflict European leaders
routinely describe as “existential” — are proceeding with minimal input from the
bloc. And while others set the tone and direction, Europe remains reactive:
managing the fallout, limiting the damage and hoping to recuperate its
influence.
This marginalization isn’t the result of a single decision or down to one person
— no matter how consequential U.S. President Donald Trump may be. Rather, it
reflects a deeper vulnerability and an unsettling pattern.
Anyone looking at Europe’s choices in recent months can see a psychology of
weakness. It paints the picture of a continent lacking courage, unable to take
decisive action even when it comes to its core interests and when policy
alternatives are within reach. Europe is losing confidence, sinking into
fatalism and justifying its passivity with the soothing thought that it has no
real choice, as its cards are weak. Besides, in the long run, things will work
out. Just wait for the U.S. midterms.
But will they? And can Europe afford to wait?
Ukraine certainly cannot.
Simply commenting on others’ peace plan drafts in some form of “track-changes
diplomacy” isn’t enough. Decisions are needed, and they’re needed now. Europe is
a continent of rich countries with ample capabilities. But while its leaders
insist Ukraine’s security and success are essential to Europe’s own security and
survival, its actual military assistance to Kyiv has declined in recent months.
On the financial end, Europe is flunking the test it set for itself. Ukraine
requires approximately €70 billion annually — and yes, this is a large sum, but
it amounts to only 0.35 percent of the EU’s GDP. This is within Europe’s
collective capacity. Yet for months now, member countries have been unable to
agree on the mechanisms for using frozen Russian assets or suitable alternatives
that could keep Ukraine afloat.
Instead, we’ve seen dithering and the triumph of small thinking. It’s also
rather telling that the U.S. attempt to simply impose how these assets are to be
used, with 50 percent of the profits going to Washington instead of Kyiv, is
finally jolting Europe into action.
Regrettably, Europe’s psychology of weakness is equally visible in the economic
domain, as the EU-U.S. trade agreement struck this July was a classic case of
how frailty can masquerade as “pragmatism.”
Brussels had the tools to respond to Washington’s tariffs and coercive measures,
including counter-tariffs and its anti-coercion instrument. But under pressure
from member countries fearful of broader U.S. disengagement from European
security and Ukraine, it chose not to use them. The result was a one-sided
“deal” with a 15 percent unilateral tariff, which breaks the World Trade
Organization’s rules and obliges Europe to make energy purchases and investments
in the U.S. worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Even worse, the deal didn’t produce the stability advertised as its main
benefit. Washington has since designated Europe’s energy transition measures and
tech regulations as “trade barriers” and “taxes on U.S. companies,” signaling
that further retaliatory steps may follow. Just last week, the U.S. upped the
pressure once more, when its trade representatives met EU ministers and openly
challenged existing EU rules on tech.
Regrettably, Europe’s psychology of weakness is equally visible in the economic
domain, as the EU-U.S. trade agreement struck this July was a classic case of
how frailty can masquerade as “pragmatism.”. | Thierry Monasse/Getty Images
More than on defense, the EU is meant to be an economic and regulatory
superpower. But despite decades of leveraging its economic weight for political
purposes, the EU is now adrift, faced with a widening transatlantic power play
over trade and technology.
Similar patterns of retreat mark the EU’s actions in other areas as well. As
Russia escalates its hybrid warfare operations against the bloc’s critical
infrastructure, Europe’s response remains hesitant. As China dramatically
weaponizes its export controls on critical mineral exports, Europe continues to
respond late and without clear coordination. And in the Middle East, despite
being one of the leading donors to Gaza, Europe is peripheral in shaping any
ceasefire and reconstruction plans.
In crisis after crisis, Europe’s role is not only small but shrinking still. The
question is, when will Europeans decide they’ve had enough of this weakness and
irrelevance?
This is, above all, a matter of psychology, of believing in one’s capabilities,
including the capacity to say “no.” But this is only possible if Europe invests
in its ability to take major decisions together — through joint political
authority and financial resources. There is no way out of this without investing
in a stronger EU.
This basic argument has been made a hundred times before. But while insisting on
“more political will” among member countries is, indeed, right, it’s also too
simplistic. We have to acknowledge that building a stronger EU also means having
to give somethings up. But in return we will gain something essential: The
ability to stand firm in a world of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.
This is both necessary and priceless.
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO
Europe.
“These are the times that try men’s souls,” wrote pamphleteer Thomas Paine in
the dark days of December 1776, as America’s war to free itself of the British
seemed doomed. In a bid to lift flagging spirits, he continued: “Tyranny, like
hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the
harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”
That victory was sorely in doubt for much of the war, but the revolutionaries
persevered, and with French assistance — which has often been downplayed since —
they triumphed after eight years of brutish conflict.
Ukraine’s struggle has been longer. In effect, the country has been fighting to
be free of Russia since 2014, and right now, these times are, indeed, trying
Ukrainian souls.
As it stands, there is scant grounds for optimism that, for all its heroism,
Ukraine can turn things around. The country is unlikely to emerge from its most
perilous winter of the war in a stronger position, better able to withstand
what’s being foisted upon it. In fact, it could be in a much weaker state — on
the battlefield, the home front, and in terms of its internal politics.
Indeed, as it tries to navigate its way through America’s divisive “peace plan,”
this might be the best Ukraine can hope for — or at least some variation that
doesn’t entail withdrawing from the territory in eastern Ukraine it has managed
to retain.
On the battlefield, Ukraine’s forces are currently hard pressed and numerically
disadvantaged. Or, as lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla recently argued: “Ukrainian
commanders simply can’t keep up” and are “being jerked around within a framework
set by the enemy.”
Meanwhile, on the home front, pummeling Russian drone attacks and airstrikes are
degrading the country’s power system and wrecking its natural gas
infrastructure, which keeps 60 percent of Ukrainians warm during the frigid
winter months.
The country is also running out of money. It’s hard to see a Europe mired in
debt providing the $250 billion Kyiv will need in cash and arms to sustain the
fight for another four years — and that’s on top of the $140 billion reparations
loan that might be offered if Belgium lifts its veto on using Russia’s
immobilized assets held in Brussels.
If all that weren’t enough, Ukraine is being roiled by a massive corruption
scandal that appears to implicate Ukrainian presidential insiders, sapping the
confidence of allies and Ukrainians alike. It’s also providing those in the
administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and the MAGA movement with
ammunition to argue that Washington should be done with Ukraine.
And now, of course, Kyiv is having to cope with a contentious U.S. effort to end
Russia’s war, which has been advanced in such a chaotic diplomatic process that
it wouldn’t be out of place in an episode of “The West Wing.”
At times, negotiations have descended into farce, with U.S. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio forswearing the original peace plan one minute, saying it came from
Russia and not a Trump administration proposal, only to swiftly backtrack. And
earlier this week, a Reuters report suggested the 28-point plan was, in fact,
modeled on a Russian proposal that Kremlin officials shared with their U.S.
counterparts in mid-October.
Meanwhile, on the home front, pummeling Russian drone attacks and airstrikes are
degrading the country’s power system and wrecking its natural gas
infrastructure. | Mykola Tys/EPA
But for all the buffoonery — including reports that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff
coached high-ranking Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov on how Russian President Vladimir
Putin should speak to Trump — a tweaked 19-point version of the “peace plan” may
well be the best Ukraine can realistically expect, even though it heavily favors
Russia.
As this column has argued before, a Ukrainian triumph was always unlikely — that
is if by triumph one means the restoration of the country’s 1991 borders and
NATO membership. This isn’t through any fault of Ukraine, the David in the fight
against Goliath, but rather that of Kyiv’s Western allies, who were never
clear-sighted or practical in their thinking, let alone ready to do what was
necessary to defeat Russia’s revanchism and vanquish a Putin regime heedless of
the death toll of even its own troops.
Despite their high-blown rhetoric, at no stage in the conflict have Ukraine’s
allies agreed on any clear war aims. Some pressed for a debate, among them
former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who was worried about
a mismatch between Western magniloquence and what the U.S. and Europe were
actually prepared to do and give. “We talk about victory, and we talk about
standing with Ukraine to the very end — but let’s also talk about this,” he told
POLITICO in a 2023 interview. But that debate never happened because of fears it
would disunite allies.
Nonetheless, Western leaders continued to characterize the war as a contest
between good and evil, with huge stakes for democracy. They cast it as a
struggle not only for territory but between liberal and autocratic values, and
as one with global consequences. But in that case, why be restrained in what you
supply? Why hold back on long-range munitions and tanks? Why delay supplying
F-16s? And why prevent Ukraine from using Western-supplied long-range missiles
to strike deeper into Russia?
Or, as Ukraine’s former top commander Gen. Valery Zaluzhny fumed in the
Washington Post: “To save my people, why do I have to ask someone for permission
what to do on enemy territory?”
For former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba, for all its talk of
standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes, the West never really grasped the
war’s importance or consequences: “You cannot win a war where Russia clearly
knows what its strategic goal is in every detail; [where] Ukraine knows what its
strategic goal is in every detail; but [where] the West, without whom Ukraine
cannot win, does not know what it is fighting for,” he told POLITICO last year.
“This is the real tragedy of this war.”
At times, negotiations have descended into farce, with U.S. Secretary of State
Marco Rubio forswearing the original peace plan one minute, saying it came from
Russia and not a Trump administration proposal, only to swiftly backtrack. |
Martial Trezzini/EPA
The currently discussed 19-point plan is, of course, an improvement on the
original 28-point plan — nonetheless, it is an ugly and shameful one. But this
is what happens if you run down your military forces and arms production for
decades, fail to draw enforceable red lines and don’t ask hard questions before
making grand promises.
For Ukraine, such a poor deal that leaves it with weak security guarantees,
without 20 percent of its territory and prohibits it from joining NATO, will
have great domestic consequences and carry the high likelihood of civil strife.
It isn’t hard to see how the army and its veterans might react. Many of them
will see it as a stab in the back, an enraging betrayal that needs to be
punished.
It will also mean rewarding Putin’s thuggishness and no real accountability for
the bestial nature of his army’s atrocious behavior or the unlawful, detestable
deportations from occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia. And it will, no doubt,
embolden the axis of autocrats.
The American Revolution had lasting global consequences — so, too, will this
war.
THE WEST’S NEW ARMS RACE: SELLING PEACE TO BUY WAR
Military spending is rising faster than at any time since the Cold War, but the
retreat from diplomacy and foreign aid will come with a price.
By TIM ROSS in London
Illustrations by Nicolás Ortega for POLITICO
In 1958, British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan observed that “jaw, jaw is
better than war, war.” Talking, he meant, is preferable to fighting.
Macmillan knew the realities of both diplomacy and military action: He was
seriously wounded as a soldier in World War I, and as prime minister, he had to
grapple with the nuclear threats of the Cold War, including most critically the
Cuban missile crisis.
John F. Kennedy, the U.S. president during that near-catastrophic episode of
atomic brinkmanship, also understood the value of diplomatic channels, as well
as the brutality of conflict: He severely injured his back serving in the U.S.
Navy in 1943.
Andrew Mitchell, a former Cabinet minister in the British government, worries
that the wisdom of leaders like Kennedy and Macmillan gained from war has faded
from memory just when it is most needed.
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“The world has forgotten the lessons of the first World War, when millions of
people were slaughtered and our grandfathers’ generation said we can’t allow
this to happen again,” he said.
One school of academic theory holds that era-defining wars recur roughly every
85 years, as generations lose sight of their forebears’ hard-won experience.
That would mean we should expect another one anytime now.
And yet, as Mitchell sees it, even as evidence mounts that the world is headed
in the wrong direction, governments have lost sight of the value of “jaw-jaw.”
The erosion of diplomatic instinct is showing up not just in rhetoric but in
budgets. The industrialized West is rapidly scaling back investment in soft
power — slashing foreign aid and shrinking diplomatic networks — even as it
diverts resources to defense.
U.S. aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest warship, makes its
way into Oslo’s fjord in September. | Lise Åserud/NTB via AFP/Getty Images
At no point since the end of the Cold War has military spending surged as fast
as it did in 2024, when it rose 9.4 percent to reach the highest global total
ever recorded by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
By contrast, a separate report from the Paris-based Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development found a 9 percent drop in official development
assistance that same year among the world’s richest donors. The OECD forecast
cuts of at least another 9 percent and potentially as much as 17 percent this
year.
“For the first time in nearly 30 years, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and
the United States all cut their ODA in 2024,” the OECD said in its study. “If
they proceed with announced cuts in 2025, it will be the first time in history
that all four have cut ODA simultaneously for two consecutive years.”
Diplomatic corps are also shrinking, with U.S. President Donald Trump setting
the tone by slashing jobs in the U.S. State Department.
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Global figures are hard to come by, and anyway go out of date quickly; one of
the most extensive surveys is based on data from 2023. But authorities in the
Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the European Union’s headquarters are among
those who have warned that their diplomatic staff face cuts.
Analysts fear that as industrialized economies turn their backs on aid and
diplomacy to build up their armies, hostile and unreliable states like Russia,
China and Turkey will step in to fill the gaps in these influence networks,
turning once friendly nations in Africa and Asia against the West.
And that, they warn, risks making the world a far more dangerous place. If the
geopolitical priorities of governments operate like a market, the trend is
clear: Many leaders have decided it’s time to sell peace and buy war.
SELLING PEACE, BUYING WAR
Military spending is climbing worldwide. The Chinese defense budget, second only
to that of the U.S., grew 7 percent between 2023 and 2024, according to SIPRI.
Russia’s military expenditure ballooned by 38 percent.
Spurred in part by fears among European countries that Trump might abandon their
alliance, NATO members agreed in June to a new target of spending 5 percent of
gross domestic product on defense and security infrastructure by 2035. The U.S.
president — cast in the role of “daddy” — was happy enough that his junior
partners across the Atlantic would be paying their way.
In reality, the race to rearm pre-dates Trump’s return to the White House. The
war in Ukraine made military buildup an urgent priority for anxious Northern and
Eastern European states living in the shadow of President Vladimir Putin’s
Russia. According to SIPRI, military spending in Europe rocketed 17 percent in
2024, reaching $693 billion — before Trump returned to office and demanded that
NATO up its game. Since 2015, defense budgets in Europe have expanded by 83
percent.
One argument for prioritizing defense over funding aid or diplomacy is that
military muscle is a powerful deterrent against would-be attackers. As European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it when she announced her plan to
rearm Europe in March: “This is the moment for peace through strength.”
Some of von der Leyen’s critics argue that an arms race inevitably leads to war
— but history does not bear that out, according to Greg Kennedy, professor of
strategic foreign policy at King’s College London. “Arms don’t kill. Governments
kill,” he said. “The problem is there are governments out there that are willing
to use military power and to kill people to get their objective.”
Ideally a strong military would go hand in hand with so-called soft power in the
form of robust diplomatic and foreign aid networks, Kennedy added. But if Europe
has to choose, it should rebuild its depleted hard power first, he said. The
risk to peace lies in how the West’s adversaries — like China — might respond to
a new arms race.
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Few serious politicians in Europe, the U.K. or the U.S. dispute the need for
military investment in today’s era of instability and conflict. The question,
when government budgets are squeezed, is how to pay for it.
Here, again, Trump’s second term has set the tone. Within days of taking office,
the U.S. president froze billions of dollars in foreign aid. And in February he
announced he would be cutting 90 percent of the U.S. Agency for International
Development’s contracts. The move — billed as part of Trump’s war on “woke” —
devastated humanitarian nongovernmental organizations, many of which relied on
American funding to carry out work in some of the poorest parts of the world.
According to one estimate, Trump’s aid cuts alone could cause 14 million
premature deaths over the next five years, one-third of them children. That’s a
decision that Trump’s critics say won’t be forgotten in places like sub-Saharan
Africa, even before cuts from other major donors like Germany and the U.K. take
effect.
Diplomatic corps are also shrinking, with U.S. President Donald Trump setting
the tone by slashing jobs in the U.S. State Department. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty
Images
In London, British leader Keir Starmer and his team had prepared for the
whirlwind of Trump’s return by devising a strategy aimed at appealing to the
American leader’s self-interest, rather than values they weren’t sure he
shared.
As Starmer got ready to visit the White House, he and his team came up with a
plan to flatter Trump with the unprecedented honor of a second state visit to
the U.K. Looking to head off a sharp break between the U.S. and Ukraine, Starmer
also sought to show the U.K. was taking Trump seriously on the need for Europe
(including Britain) to pay for its own defenses.
On the eve of his trip to Washington in February, Starmer announced he would
raise defense spending — as Trump had demanded allies must — and that he would
pay for it in part by cutting the U.K.’s budget for foreign aid from 0.5 percent
of gross national income to 0.3 percent.
For a center-left leader like Starmer, whose Labour predecessors Gordon Brown
and Tony Blair had championed the moral obligation to spend big on foreign
development, it was a wrenching shift of gear.
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“That is not an announcement that I am happy to make,” he explained. “However,
the realities of our dangerous new era mean that the defense and national
security of our country must always come first.”
The U.S. government welcomed Starmer’s move as “a strong step from an enduring
partner.”
But Starmer returned home to political revolt. His international aid minister
Anneliese Dodds quit, warning Starmer his decision would “remove food and health
care from desperate people — deeply harming the U.K.’s reputation.”
She lamented that Britain appeared to be “following in President Trump’s
slipstream of cuts to USAID.”
EASY TARGETS
In the months that followed, other major European governments made similar
calculations, some citing the U.K. as a sign that times had changed. For
cash-poor governments in the era of Trumpian nationalism, foreign aid is an easy
target for savings.
The U.K. was once a world leader in foreign aid and a beacon for humanitarian
agencies, enshrining in law its commitment to spend 0.7 percent of gross
national income on ODA, according to Mitchell, the former Cabinet minister
responsible for the policy. “But now Britain is being cited in Germany as,
‘Well, the Brits are cutting their development money, we can do the same.’”
In Sweden, the defense budget is due to rise by 18 percent between 2025 and
2026, in what the government hailed as a “historic” investment plan. “The
prevailing security situation is more serious than it has been in several
decades,” Sweden’s ministry of defense said, “and Russia constitutes a
multi-dimensional threat.”
But Sweden’s international development cooperation budget, which was worth
around €4.5 billion last year, will fall to €4 billion by 2026.
In debt-ridden France, plans were announced earlier this year to slash the ODA
budget by around one-third, though its spending decisions have been derailed by
a spiraling political crisis that has so far prevented it from passing a budget.
Money for defense was due to rise dramatically, despite the overall squeeze on
France’s public finances.
In Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Putin’s Russia, the development
budget also fell, while defense spending escaped cuts.
The country’s Development Minister Ville Tavio, from the far-right populist
Finns Party, says the cuts provided a chance to rethink aid altogether. Instead
of funding humanitarian programs, he wants to give private businesses
opportunities to invest to create jobs in poorer countries. That, he believes,
will help prevent young people from heading to Europe as illegal migrants.
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“If they don’t have jobs, the countries will become unstable, and the young
people will radicalize. Some of them will start trying to get to Europe,” he
said. “It’s a complete win-win if we can help the developing countries to
industrialize and create those jobs they need.”
Not all countries are cutting back. Ireland plans to increase its ODA budget,
while Denmark has pledged to keep spending 0.7 percent of its gross national
income on foreign aid even as it boosts investment in defense.
But Ireland has enjoyed enviable economic growth in recent years and Denmark
will pay for its spending priorities by raising the retirement age to 70. In any
case, these are not giant economies that can sustain Europe’s reputation as a
soft power superpower on their own.
STAFF CUTS
The retreat from foreign aid is only part of a broader withdrawal from diplomacy
itself. Some wealthy Western nations have trimmed their diplomatic corps, even
closing embassies and bureaus.
Again, Trump’s America provides the most dramatic example. In July, the U.S.
State Department fired more than 1,300 employees, among them foreign service
officers and civil servants. In the eyes of European officials watching from
afar, Trump’s administration just doesn’t seem to care about nurturing
established relations with the rest of the world.
According to the American Foreign Service Association’s ambassador tracker, 85
out of 195 American ambassador roles were vacant as of Oct. 23. Part of this
reflects confirmation delays in the U.S. Senate, but nine months in office, the
administration had not even nominated candidates for more than 60 of the empty
posts.
The result is a system stretched to the breaking point, with some of the most
senior officials doing more than one job. Marco Rubio, the secretary of state,
is still doubling up as Trump’s national security adviser (and he’s also been
tapped to head the national archives).
With key posts left open, Trump has turned to loyalists. Instead of drawing on
America’s once-deep pool of diplomatic expertise, the president sent his friend
Steve Witkoff, a lawyer and real estate investor, to negotiate personally with
Putin and to act as his envoy to the Middle East.
In Brussels, EU officials have been aghast at Witkoff’s lack of understanding of
the complexities of the Russia-Ukraine war. One senior European official who
requested anonymity to speak candidly about diplomatic matters said they have
zero confidence that Witkoff can even relay messages between Moscow and
Washington reliably and accurately.
That’s partly why European leaders are so keen to speak directly to Trump, as
often and with as many of them present as they can, the senior European official
said.
And while Washington’s diplomatic corps is hollowed out in plain sight, other
governments in the West follow Trump’s lead, only more quietly.
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British diplomats face staff cuts of 15 percent to 25 percent. The Netherlands
is reducing its foreign missions budget by 10 percent (while boosting defense)
and plans to close at least five embassies and consulates, with more likely to
follow.
Even the EU’s flagship foreign department — the European External Action
Service, led by the former Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas, a Russia hawk
— is reducing its network of overseas offices. The changes, which POLITICO
revealed in May, are expected to result in 10 EU delegations being downsized and
100 to 150 local staff losing their jobs.
“European diplomacy is taking a back seat to priorities such as border control
and defense, which are getting increased budget allocations,” one EU official
said. The person insisted the EU is not “cutting diplomacy” — but “the resources
are going elsewhere.”
Privately, diplomats and other officials in Europe confess they are deeply
concerned by the trend of reducing diplomatic capacity while military budgets
soar.
“We should all be worried about this,” one said.
JAW-JAW OR WAR-WAR?
Mitchell, the former British Cabinet minister, warned that the accelerating
shift from aid to arms risks ending in catastrophe.
“At a time when you really need the international system … you’ve got the
massive resurgence of narrow nationalism, in a way that some people argue you
haven’t really seen since before 1914,” he said.
Mitchell, who was the U.K.’s international development minister until his
Conservative Party lost power last year, said cutting aid to pay for defense was
“a terrible, terrible mistake.” He argued that soft power is much cheaper, and
often more effective, than hard power on its own. “Development is so often the
other side of the coin to defense,” Mitchell said. It helps prevent wars, end
fighting and rebuild nations afterward.
At no point since the end of the Cold War has military spending surged as fast
as it did in 2024. | Federico Gambarini/picture alliance via Getty Images
Many ambassadors, officials, diplomats and analysts interviewed for this article
agree. The pragmatic purpose of diplomatic networks and development programs is
to build alliances that can be relied on in times of trouble.
“Any soldier will tell you that responding to international crises or
international threats, isn’t just about military responses,” said Kim Darroch,
who served as British ambassador to the U.S. and as the U.K.’s national security
adviser. “It’s about diplomacy as well, and it’s about having an integrated
strategy that takes in both your international strategy and your military
response, as needed.”
Hadja Lahbib, the European commissioner responsible for the EU’s vast
humanitarian aid program, argues it’s a “totally” false economy to cut aid to
finance military budgets. “We have now 300 million people depending on
humanitarian aid. We have more and more war,” she told POLITICO.
The whole multilateral aid system is “shaking” as a result of political attacks
and funding cuts, she said. The danger is that if it fails, it will trigger
fresh instability and mass migration. “The link is quite vicious but if we are
not helping people where they are, they are going to move — it’s obvious — to
find a way to survive,” Lahbib said. “Desperate people are more [willing] to be
violent because they just want to save their lives, to save their family.”
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Countries that cut their outreach programs also face paying a political price
for the long term. When a wealthy government closes its embassy or reduces aid
to a country needing help, that relationship suffers, potentially permanently,
according to Cyprien Fabre, a policy specialist who studies peace and
instability at the OECD.
“Countries remember who stayed and who left,” he said.
Vacating the field clears space for rivals to come in. Turkey increased its
diplomatic presence in Africa from 12 embassies in 2002 to 44 in 2022, Fabre
said. Russia and China are also taking advantage as Europe retreats from the
continent. “The global bellicose narrative sees big guns and big red buttons as
the only features of power,” Fabre said.
Politicians tend to see the “soft” in “soft power,” he added. “You realize it’s
not soft when you lose it.”
Nicholas Vinocur contributed to this report.
Ban Ki-moon is the eighth secretary-general of the U.N. and the co-chair of the
Ban Ki-moon Centre for Global Citizens. Ana Toni is the CEO of COP30.
As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil for this year’s United Nations Climate
Change Conference (COP30), we are standing at a global tipping point. 2024 broke
temperature records, as the world temporarily surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius
target for the first time. And now, we’re on track to cross it permanently
within just five years.
This means adaptation action has never been more vital for our survival.
From the year 2000 to 2019, climate change already cost the world’s most
vulnerable countries an estimated $525 billion. This burden only continues to
rise, putting lives at risk and undoing hard-won development gains, with global
annual damages likely to land somewhere between $19 trillion and $59 trillion in
2050. Even more sobering, the world economy is already locked into a 19 percent
loss of income by 2050 due to climate change, no matter how successful today’s
mitigation efforts are.
This makes one thing clear: The consequence of inaction is far greater than the
consequence of action. The world must stop seeing adaptation as a cost to bear
but as an investment that strengthens economies and builds healthier, more
secure communities.
Every dollar invested in adaptation can generate more than 10 times that in
benefits through avoided losses, as well as induced economic, social and
environmental benefits. Every dollar invested in agricultural research and
development generates similar returns for smallholder farmers, vulnerable
communities and ecosystems too.
This remains true even if climate-related disasters don’t occur. Effective
adaptation does more than save lives — it makes the economic case for
resilience. And if we really want to tackle the crises of today’s world, we need
to put people — especially those most vulnerable — at the center of all our
conversations and efforts. Those least responsible for climate change are the
ones our financing must reach.
Here, locally led adaptation provides a path forward, focusing on giving
communities agency over their futures, addressing structural inequalities and
enhancing local capacities.
Today, more than 2 billion people depend on smallholder farms for their
livelihoods, but as little as 1.7 percent of climate finance reaches Indigenous
communities and locally operated farms. Small-scale agri-food systems, which are
essential to many in developing countries, receive a mere 0.8 percent of
international climate finance.
This is deeply unjust. These are the people and systems most threatened by
climate impacts — and they’re often the best-placed ones to deliver locally
effective and regionally adaptive solutions.
To that end, appropriate investments in global networks like the Consultative
Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) could accelerate and scale
technologies that can be adopted by these local systems. These tools could then
be used to improve resilience and increase productivity in low- and
middle-income countries, while also reducing inequalities and advancing gender
equity and social inclusion.
The world economy is already locked into a 19 percent loss of income by 2050 due
to climate change. | Albert Llop/Getty Images
Scaling such efforts will be crucial in moving toward systemic climate
solutions. Our ambition is to move from negotiation to implementation to protect
lives, safeguard assets and advance equity.
But it’s important to remember that adaptation is distinct — it is inherently
local; shaped by geography, communities and governance systems. Meeting this
challenge will require more than just pledges. It will necessitate high-quality
public and private adaptation finance that is accessible to vulnerable countries
and communities.
That’s why governments around the world — especially those in high-income
countries — must design institutional arrangements and policies that raise
additional public funds, incentivize markets and embed resilience into every
investment decision.
The decade since the Paris Agreement laid the foundations for a world at peace
with the planet. And with COP30 now taking place in the heart of the Amazon, we
must make adaptation a global priority and see resilience as the investment
agenda of the 21st century.
At its core, climate finance should be driving development pathways that put
people first. In Belém, leaders must now close the adaptation finance gap and
ensure funding reaches those on the front lines. They need to back investable
national resilience strategies, replicate successful initiatives and put
resilience at the center of financial decision-making.
COP30 needs to be transformative and lead to markets that reward resilience,
communities that are better protected and economies built on firmer, more
climate-resilient foundations. Let this be the moment we finally move from
awareness to alignment, and from ambition to action.
Our collective survival depends on it. Question is, will our leaders have the
political will to seize it?
Belgium’s former Prime Minister Alexander De Croo is set to become the next head
of the United Nations Development Programme.
De Croo, of the Flemish liberal Open VLD party, will succeed current UNDP
Administrator Achim Steiner and will also serve as undersecretary-general,
working closely with U.N. chief António Guterres.
According to reports, De Croo’s nomination followed weeks of deliberations after
the selection panel failed to reach a consensus, prompting Guterres to make the
final call. The U.N. General Assembly is expected to confirm the appointment in
the coming days, a step widely seen as a formality.
“It’s a great appointment, it’s also a great honor for Belgium,” Peter Piot,
until now the first and only Belgian to have served as a U.N.
undersecretary-general, told De Morgen. “UNDP is the most important organization
of the U.N. when it comes to general development. There has really been a huge
competition for that position, countries are lobbying very hard for it,” he
added.
The UNDP administrator is the third-highest position in the U.N. hierarchy after
the secretary-general and deputy secretary-general. It is also the highest post
outside the U.N. Secretariat and serves as vice chair of the United Nations
Sustainable Development Group, which coordinates all U.N. agencies operating in
the field.
De Croo’s move means he will resign his seat in the Belgian parliament, where he
was elected last year, according to Flemish public broadcaster VRT.
He will be replaced by Sandro Di Nunzio, currently deputy mayor of Lochristi in
East Flanders. In Brakel, where De Croo serves as mayor, Marleen Gyselinck will
step in as acting mayor.
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO
Europe.
Ukrainian officials are displaying a newfound confidence — and it’s all thanks
to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Despite Russia’s pummeling airstrikes targeting the country’s energy system, the
conviction that the end may finally be in sight is slowly spreading in Kyiv.
Hopes in the capital are that by spring or summer, Russian President Vladimir
Putin will be serious about negotiating, with talks of an end to the war
sometime next year.
In a recent closed-door parliamentary session with lawmakers from his Servant of
the People party, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hazarded Russia’s
current heave in the country’s east may well be its final big land offensive in
the conflict, according to those in attendance. Of course, the country will
still have to endure another harsh winter, but Zelenskyy told them he expects
there will be a real possibility of a truce — although, he noted, it won’t be
easy.
For that to happen, Russia needs to be hit with more economic and military
pressure, so Putin understands the only logical outcome is to negotiate, and
that prolonging the conflict will lead to no other advantages for him and will
just bleed Russia. Thankfully, fresh off successfully brokering a ceasefire in
Gaza, Trump seems determined to bring the war in Ukraine to a halt and add
another notch in his belt to brandish at the Nobel Peace Prize judges.
This is what a high-level Ukrainian delegation, including Zelenskyy’s powerful
Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak and Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, has been
discussing with U.S. counterparts in Washington this week: How to leverage Putin
into stopping his war, and how to help Ukraine endure Russia’s airstrikes this
winter.
And with Zelenskyy set to be in the White House on Friday for yet another
face-to-face meeting with Trump, this time, they feel the tide might be turning
in their favor.
In his hour-long address in the Knesset on Monday, the U.S. president made clear
his intention is to focus his efforts on ending the war between Ukraine and
Russia: “It would be great if we could make a peace deal with [Iran] … First, we
have to get Russia done,” he told Israeli lawmakers. For the man who once blamed
Zelenskyy for the conflict, it seems this is now Putin’s war. Last month, Trump
actually dubbed Russia the “aggressor.”
It is this kind of talk that’s firing up Kyiv, and Zelenskyy didn’t miss a beat
in responding: “We are working so that the day of peace comes for Ukraine as
well. Russian aggression remains the last global source of destabilization, and
if a ceasefire and peace have been achieved for the Middle East, the leadership
and determination of global actors can certainly work for us, too,” he posted on
social media.
But Ukraine’s cautious confidence predates Trump’s Knesset speech.
Slowly but surely, Trump and Zelenskyy have become aligned — more than anyone
could have forecast back in February after their tempestuous Oval Office brawl,
which was widely seen as an ambush. “You’re not in a good position. You don’t
have the cards right now,” Trump had bellowed at Zelenskyy.
Nor did things look good in August, when Trump greeted Putin on the tarmac of a
Cold War-era air force base outside Anchorage, Alaska, for a summit that had
Ukrainian and European leaders on the edge of their seats. They, along with the
rest of the world, watched as Trump applauded the Russian ruler, had an animated
but clearly friendly conversation on the red carpet, and invited a smirking
Putin into the U.S. president’s official car to share a ride to the summit
venue.
To be sure, Putin had much to smile about: He had managed to secure the summit
meeting despite being a wanted man for war crimes and was greeted on U.S. soil
as a friend — not the leader of a pariah state that had invaded a sovereign
European nation — all without agreeing to any major concessions or a ceasefire
beforehand. He left Anchorage without committing to a truce either, despite
Trump saying his Russian counterpart was keen to save thousands of lives during
their joint press conference.
With Zelenskyy set to be in the White House on Friday for yet another
face-to-face meeting with Trump, this time, they feel the tide might be turning
in their favor. | Photo by the Office of the President of Ukraine via Getty
Images
Since then, Putin hasn’t shown any solicitude for human life, and the continued
strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine have contributed greatly to where Trump
is now, explained one Republican foreign-policy insider, talking to POLITICO on
condition of anonymity in order to speak freely. “Trump needed time to
understand who Putin really is.”
Plus, the media coverage calling the Alaska summit a “Putin triumph” infuriated
Trump, the insider said. The Russian president, who appears convinced he just
has to wait out the West, overplayed his hand by giving Trump nothing in
Anchorage — or since, for that matter.
Meanwhile, European leaders who Trump likes have continued their efforts to
repair the damage the Oval Office bust-up wrought. The Republican insider lists
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte as key players here, as well as Starmer’s National
Security Adviser Jonathan Powell. He also said a winning card in the lobbying
was Britain’s King Charles “telling Trump that Ukraine is great, and that has
really changed Trump’s view of Ukraine.”
But the insider also credits Zelenskyy for working hard on his relationship with
Trump, and being careful with his language. “You have to understand that since
the war began, Zelenskyy and Yermak had been used to being treated as rock
stars, as global celebrities, and then Trump enters and says: ‘there’s only room
for one diva here — me.’ That’s why we had the Oval Office blow-up,” he said.
And proof of that has come in the form of increasingly friendly meetings with
Trump, the most cordial of which took place on the sidelines of the United
Nations General Assembly last month, with Trump praising the Ukrainian leader as
a “brave man.”
“We have great respect for the fight that Ukraine is putting up,” he said. “It’s
pretty amazing, actually.”
In his hour-long address in the Knesset on Monday, the U.S. president made clear
his intention is to focus his efforts on ending the war between Ukraine and
Russia. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
It was after that meeting that Trump surprised even Zelenskyy himself with the
head-spinning comment that Ukraine might be able to reclaim all the territory it
has lost to Russia. It also surprised some of Trump’s aides — after all, the
U.S. had made clear Ukraine would have to give up land in return for peace only
the previous month.
There have been other factors shaping Trump’s shift too, and according to
another Republican foreign policy adviser who asked to remain anonymous to
freely discuss sensitive matters, these include China hosting Putin and North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un last month. “Please give my warmest regards to
Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of
America,” Trump scathingly posted on his Truth Social platform.
“The best way to get back at Putin is to praise Zelenskyy — that’s how Trump
sees it,” the adviser said. And going even further, ramp up U.S. support for
Ukraine.
To that end, Washington has recently increased its intelligence-sharing with
Ukrainian forces to assist in long-range attacks on energy targets deep inside
Russia, bringing the consequences of the war home to ordinary citizens.
Meanwhile, talk of supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk Cruise missiles is meant to
scare the Kremlin — although the risk of escalation will likely deter Trump from
going that far.
Overall, the cards have certainly started to flutter into Zelenskyy’s hands.
Ukrainian officials and their supporters in the U.S. hope they’ll continue to do
so — although they concede that with Trump, nothing can be taken for granted.
How will he respond if Putin remains obdurate, as signs are that he will?
Still, for all his unpredictability, they’re happier with this Trump than the
one in February.
Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, is a senior fellow at Harvard
University’s Belfer Center and host of the weekly podcast “World Review with Ivo
Daalder.” He writes POLITICO’s From Across the Pond column.
Russia is at war with Europe. It has been waging an overt war in Ukraine for
over a decade now, and with increasing ferocity since its full-scale invasion in
2022. But the fighting in Ukraine is only part of Russia’s wider war against
Europe as a whole.
This month’s drone incursions on Poland and Romania and flying into Estonian
airspace underscore Moscow’s broader intent: dividing Europe and the U.S.,
weakening public support for strong military action and ending the continent’s
support for Ukraine.
But until now, Europe hadn’t taken this threat seriously. It preferred to view
Russia’s escalating operations — the assassinations, cyberattacks, sabotage of
critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns and more — as falling into a
gray zone below the level of armed conflict. And its chosen response was to
improve resilience while, at times publicly, condemning Russia for its actions.
Essentially, Europe imposed no cost on Moscow for its covert agitation against
the continent — and that’s a mistake.
This failure is behind the significant escalation in the Kremlin’s attacks on
Europe over the past three years. As a new report by the International Institute
for Strategic Studies (IISS) underscores, the number of such attacks grew while
the full-scale war got underway, and the reason is clear: Russia was stymied by
Ukraine’s stubborn defense on the battlefield and the support it has received
from Europe and the U.S.
“Russia simply does not have the wherewithal to fully subjugate Ukraine by
force,” Britain’s MI6 chief Richard Moore noted the other day. “Yes, they are
winding forward on the battlefield, but at a snail’s pace and horrendous cost,
and Putin’s army is still far short of its original invasion objectives,” he
added. “Bluntly, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew.”
The only way Moscow can now achieve its objectives is by weakening Europe’s
support for Ukraine and exploiting divisions within and among NATO nations. This
is what its covert war against Europe aims to do.
The IISS report details just how many of Russia’s attacks on European
infrastructure consist of facilities linked to the war in Ukraine. As the
country’s military faltered in 2023, the number of attacks on Europe nearly
quadrupled, and they increasingly targeted “bases, production facilities and
those facilities involved in transporting military aid to Ukraine.”
Then, in the first half of this year, the attacks declined significantly, likely
reflecting Moscow’s assessment that U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to
office would weaken support for Ukraine. And, indeed, it did — Washington ended
its military and economic assistance to Ukraine and sought a diplomatic
conclusion to the war that accepts many of Moscow’s conditions.
But even as the U.S. shifted course, Europe’s commitment to Ukraine has remained
steadfast — and even increased: Key European countries are now seriously
discussing the deployment of a significant security force in Ukraine once
fighting ends; European governments, led by Germany, are sending large amounts
of weapons to Ukraine — including some bought from the U.S.; financial support
for the country’s economy and rapidly expanding defense industry is growing;
additional sanctions are in the offing; and the EU is seriously considering
seizing Russia’s frozen assets.
Faced with such staunch commitment, Putin is now pushing even harder.
It’s probably no accident this all started after the Russian leader’s Alaska
meeting with Trump, where he assessed the U.S. was unlikely to resist further
escalation from Moscow. And clearly, escalation there has been: Since that
meeting, Russia’s bombing of Ukraine has intensified— including the largest
drone and missile attack of the war, which came in early September. And even as
his military efforts inside Ukraine grew increasingly brazen, Putin decided to
test Europe and NATO.
Another action is to make clear that any further Russian incursion into European
airspace, territory or maritime domain will lead to military action designed to
destroy or disable the violating system in question. | Federico
Gambarini/Picture Alliance via Getty Images
First, Russia sent 19 drones across the Polish border on Sept. 10, followed by
another drone crossing the Romanian border a few days later. Then, last week,
three Russian MiG-31 warplanes crossed into Estonian airspace and loitered for
12 minutes (Though used as an interceptor, the MiG-31 is capable of carrying and
launching the Kinzhal hypersonic missile that Russia has repeatedly used against
Ukraine).
In all three instances, European forces met the military test of effectively
neutralizing the threat, including shooting down some of the drones headed
toward an air base in Poland. But NATO countries failed the political test.
The U.S. response to the repeated violations has been notably tepid, with Trump
and other officials suggesting the drone attack on Poland might have been a
mistake. The president also made clear that he’s “not gonna defend anybody.”
NATO, for its part, convened twice for Article 4 consultations — first at the
behest of Poland and then Estonia. It also announced a beefed-up military
presence along the Eastern flank. But still, Putin has paid no price — and until
he does, Russia will continue escalating, aiming to weaken European support for
Ukraine and divide the alliance.
What, then, could and should Europe do?
One idea, supported by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, is to extend
NATO’s defenses by intercepting drones and missiles over Ukrainian territory.
This could be done with European fighters and air defense systems operating from
European airspace or territory, or over the skies of Ukraine. It would be a
defensive measure that directly contributes to Ukraine’s defense as well.
Another action is to make clear that any further Russian incursion into European
airspace, territory or maritime domain will lead to military action designed to
destroy or disable the violating system in question. This, too, would constitute
a defensive measure — one that would reduce the likelihood of Russia continuing
to breach European territory.
Finally, Europe should provide Ukraine with the capacity to strike critical
logistical nodes and war-supporting facilities in Russia. Kyiv has produced
long-range drones and is now finalizing the development of ballistic missiles
that have already struck Russian energy and other facilities. The continent
could help in that effort with more sophisticated weapons and support.
Europe is at war with Russia, whether it likes it or not. It’s high time to
recognize this reality and act accordingly.
A coalition of human rights NGOs is urging the European Commission to halt
cooperation with Libya after it attacked a migrant rescue ship, accusing
Brussels of funding forces that “enabled and legitimised abuses.”
In a letter obtained by POLITICO and due to be sent to Migration Commissioner
Magnus Brunner and Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica on Wednesday — and
copied to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President
António Costa and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola — the
organizations condemn the Aug. 24 assault on the rescue vessel Ocean Viking by
the Libyan Coast Guard.
The Ocean Viking, operated by the French NGO SOS Méditerranée, was fired on by a
Libyan patrol boat financed by EU funds via Italy’s SIBMMIL program. More than
30 crew members and 87 rescued migrants were on board when hundreds of shots
were fired without warning in international waters, according to the NGO.
“While the European Commission stated that Libyan authorities are investigating
the incident, weeks after the attack, there is no indication that cooperation,
or technical and financial assistance, has been suspended during the course of
this investigation,” the letter says.
The signatories — including Amnesty International, ActionAid, SOS Méditerranée,
Emergency, Médecins Sans Frontières, Mediterranea Saving Humans, and Refugees in
Libya — argue the assault exposes nearly a decade of failed EU policy.
“Eight years of EU support has not improved these actors’ human rights records,
but enabled and legitimised abuses,” they warned, adding that “human lives must
not be disregarded in the name of border control.”
The NGOs accuse the Commission of turning a blind eye “despite overwhelming
evidence” of human rights violations by Libyan authorities; and of mismanaging
its own programs by refusing to show the public the safety checks it conducts to
ensure EU-funded projects do not harm people.
They demand that Brussels restores “the rule of law at its maritime border;
suspend cooperation with Libya without further delay; urge Italy to terminate
its 2017 Memorandum of Understanding with Libya; and urge other Member States to
refrain from similar agreements.”
The appeal lands as Libya’s internal turmoil complicates European diplomacy. The
country remains split between rival governments in Tripoli and Benghazi, backed
by rival powers such as Russia and Turkey. Moscow has expanded its presence with
arms deliveries and plans for a naval base in Tobruk, while Ankara has struck
maritime deals that Greece deems illegal.
On July 8, an EU mission led by Brunner to Benghazi was abruptly expelled,
roiling relations with the eastern Benghazi government. Brunner said Brussels
had to keep talking with Benghazi strongman Khalifa Haftar as a necessary step
to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from further weaponizing migration.
French MEP Mounir Satouri, from the left-wing Greens/European Free Alliance, who
also chairs the Committee on Human Rights (DROI) in the European Parliament,
described the EU’s cooperation with Libya as a “slap in the face to those of us
who takes European values seriously.”
“Europe cannot continue to fuel human rights violations based solely on its
obsession with migration,” he said in a statement Tuesday.
ANTWERP — U.S. homeland security chief Kristi Noem arrived at the port of
Antwerp on Wednesday to pledge American support toward smashing narco gangs, as
drug-fueled violence plagues Belgium.
U.S. President Donald Trump is taking drastic international action to target
cartels — including a controversial strike that blew up an alleged Venezuelan
drug boat — and designated them as foreign terrorist organizations immediately
after taking office.
“Ports here, like this one, are a crime target for foreign terrorist
organizations,” Noem said during a press conference following a meeting with
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever. “The U.S. understands that we need to be
aggressive in fighting these organizations and we want to partner with you in an
even greater way to do so into the future.”
The port of Antwerp is one of Europe’s main gateways for illicit drug shipments,
and Noem and De Wever were on site to discuss boosting cooperation between
Belgium and the U.S. in the fight against narcotics trafficking.
Noem, a longtime conservative ally of Trump, noted that the collaborative action
will involve sharing data and security information, and dealing with shipping
companies.
Talking to media ahead of the meeting, De Wever said the U.S. side requested the
meeting, and he saw it “as a sign of appreciation for years of [his] global
lobbying.”
“I think Europe should focus a lot more on European cooperation on one hand, and
on cooperation with our friends in the United States in order to crush the
business model of organized crime. We must do this because drug criminals know
no borders at all,” said De Wever, a Flemish nationalist who spent more than ten
years as mayor of Antwerp before becoming Belgian prime minister.
Both the U.S. and Belgium have faced an epidemic of drug trafficking and
narcotics-related violence, and authorities have struggled to get to grips with
the problem.
The Belgian port city of Antwerp, which in the first quarter of 2025 overtook
Rotterdam in container output, has witnessed a stark increase in drug-related
shootings and explosions amid the surging drug traffic.
Belgian authorities seized a record 121 metric tons of cocaine at the port in
2023, according to customs statistics released by police.
Drug violence has gripped Brussels too, culminating in about 60 shootings this
year alone. The government is currently mulling deploying soldiers on the
streets by the end of the year to deter criminals.
Across the Atlantic, the U.S. has been struggling with fentanyl, a synthetic
drug estimated to be 50 times stronger than heroin. Former U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken warned in 2023 that Europe will soon have to deal with the
same problem.
According to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
nearly 80,000 people died from drug overdoses in 2024, a significant decrease
from the 110,000 deaths recorded the previous year.
“There’s a plague of fentanyl traffic that is spreading around the world,” said
Noem, adding that “we need to stop it and work together so that we have the
ability to use our experience in America to help Europe.”
She then switched out of her high heels to go inside a shipping container to
inspect Belgium’s new drug-scanning technology, before accompanying De Wever on
a helicopter tour around the port.