BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s war chest is less depleted than policymakers had feared and
the country can sustain itself until early May, four people familiar with Kyiv’s
finances told POLITICO.
The fear had been that the Ukrainian authorities, who face a budget shortfall of
at least $50 billion this year, would start running out of money at the end of
March.
That’s no longer the case after the International Monetary Fund approved an $8.1
billion loan to the war-torn country last month, disbursing $1.5 billion
immediately.
EU leaders agreed on a €90 billion lifeline to Ukraine in mid-December to help
finance its defense against Russian forces. But Hungary recently blocked the
initiative, accusing Ukraine of slow-walking repairs to the damaged Druzhba
pipeline on political grounds to influence key elections that could oust
incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Kyiv has rejected the claims, saying the pipeline is too damaged to carry vital
supplies of Russian oil to Hungary following a drone attack in late January. EU
officials are scrambling to break the political deadlock ahead of the EU
leaders’ summit next week.
The extra cash cushion, however, gives the EU more time to overcome Hungary’s
veto threats — such as after the Hungarian election next month.
Separately, Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen told his peers on Tuesday that
his government has made provisions to send Kyiv €3.5 billion a year in bilateral
support until 2029, two other diplomats told POLITICO.
Tag - Economic governance
BRUSSELS — The head of the International Energy Agency on Tuesday summoned an
extraordinary meeting to decide whether to tap millions of barrels of emergency
oil supplies amid soaring energy costs.
The meeting, to be held at an undisclosed time on Tuesday, will “assess the
current security of supply and market conditions to inform a subsequent decision
on whether to make emergency stocks of IEA countries available to the market,”
the agency’s chief, Fatih Birol, said in an emailed statement.
The IEA’s 31 members — mostly advanced Western economies — have grown
increasingly panicked as Iran and a U.S.-Israeli coalition trade airstrikes,
imperilling critical supply chains and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Merchant shipping has also abandoned the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20
percent of the world’s energy trade, prompting fears of price spikes.
The IEA’s members have yet to coordinate on measures to address the crisis,
citing uncertainty over how long the war will last.
Benchmark oil prices skyrocketed to over $100 a barrel in the first week of the
war, before settling at $88 on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump implied
that the conflict was nearing a conclusion.
Member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency oil
supplies as well as a further 600 million held under government obligation,
Birol said.
BRUSSELS — The right to use Swiss franc banknotes and coins will be enshrined in
Switzerland’s constitution after voters on Sunday backed a measure designed to
safeguard the use of cash in society.
Preliminary official estimates revealed 69 percent of voters backed the legal
amendment, which the government proposed as a counter to a similar initiative by
a group called the Swiss Freedom Movement.
The Swiss Freedom Movement triggered the national referendum after its
initiative to protect cash collected more than 100,000 signatures, triggering a
national referendum. Its initiative secured only 46 percent of the final vote
after the government said some of the group’s proposed amendments went too far.
The vote means Switzerland will join the likes of Hungary, Slovakia and
Slovenia, which have already written the right to cold, hard cash in their
constitutions. Austrian politicians are also debating whether to follow suit, as
people’s payment habits become increasingly digital — especially since the
pandemic.
The trend has fanned Big Brother conspiracy theories that governments aim to
control populations by withdrawing cash altogether. The European Central Bank’s
plans to issue a virtual extension of the euro have fanned those fears,
prompting the EU’s executive arm to propose a bill that will cement physical
cash in societies across the bloc.
Switzerland, too, has seen a drop in cash payments over the past decade. More
than seven out of 10 payments at the till were in cash in 2017. In 2024, cash
only featured in 30 percent of in-shop transactions, according to data from the
Swiss National Bank.
The Swiss Freedom Movement has previously pursued campaigns to sack unpopular
government ministers, ban electronic voting, and protect citizens from
professional or social retribution if they refuse to be vaccinated against
Covid-19 — none of which made it to the ballot box.
BRUSSELS — Spain’s business sector isn’t sure Donald Trump will chicken out.
While the country’s political class may be steadfast in its defiance against the
U.S. and Israel’s war in Iran, its companies and regional leaders are scrambling
to figure out what retaliation out of Washington would look like.
The fear is that a transatlantic rift between Washington and Madrid, which
opened after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to let U.S. military planes
use jointly operated air bases on Spanish soil to attack Iran, could turn into a
complete rupture. Earlier this week, the U.S. President and his Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent threatened to cut all trade ties with the EU’s
fourth-largest economy in retaliation.
It’s not supposed to be easy for the U.S. to bring economic pain to Spain. The
EU functions as a barrier-free common market of 27 nations, a collective
commercial entity that cannot be divided or fragmented with individual
retaliation.
But Spanish businesses aren’t taking any chances, given how vulnerable the
country would be to a U.S. trade embargo. The U.S. is Spain’s leading supplier
of fossil fuels. Over 15 percent of the oil Spain imported last year came from
the U.S., which also provided a record 44 percent of the country’s liquefied
natural gas imports last January alone. Cutting off the supply of either would
be devastating amid surging energy prices from the war in the Gulf.
Even though the U.S. accounts for less than 5 percent of Spain’s total global
exports, suspending trade relations would have a serious impact on regions like
the autonomous Basque Country, a major industrial player.
“Around 8 percent of our exports go directly to the States,” Ander Caballero,
the Basque government’s head of foreign affairs, told POLITICO during an
interview in Brussels. “We need to see how any change in policy would be
applied, but anything affecting the energy or automotive sectors, or involving
machine tools, steel, and aluminum would be a source of concern.”
Caballero noted that the region’s products were also part of larger value chains
that involve large German, French, and British companies. “Even though the U.S.
is only our fourth laregst trading partner, we could still be talking about a
hit that could amount to €1 billion.”
Basque Country President Imanol Pradales this week convened an emergency meeting
of the region’s “Industrial Defense Group,” made up of government figures,
chambers of commerce and key sectoral and business leaders, to coordinate
contingency measures against the commercial turmoil stemming from the Middle
Eastern conflict.
The rapid-response task force was created one year ago with the mission of
mitigating the regional impact of Trump’s tariff policies, which Pradales
described as a “challenge unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.” This week
marked the fourth emergency meeting of the group.
“The Basque Country cannot control the global geopolitical landscape, but we can
react quickly to protect our industry,” Pradales said. “The time it takes us to
react will determine the magnitude of the impact.”
The rush to prepare for the worst underscores Spaniards’ fear of the White
House’s arsenal of economic weapons. So far, the most popular of these weapons
has been trade tariffs. But Trump has also used sanctions to deprive his
dissenters from using American credit cards and cut off countries like Iran from
the world’s reserve currency.
Scott Bessent has no qualms with weaponizing the U.S. dollar | Magnus
Lejhall/EPA
Bessent has no qualms with weaponizing the U.S. dollar, either. Earlier this
year, he told POLITICO that sanctions and limits on access to the greenback
enabled Washington to influence other countries’ policies “without firing
bullets.”
That’s of particular concern to banks, such as Spain’s largest lender,
Santander, which last month agreed to acquire the U.S.’s Webster Financial
Corporation, a second-tier bank. The $12.2 billion deal could catapult Santander
into the top 10 American retail and commercial lenders. At the very least, a
breakdown in commercial relations between Madrid and Washington could make it
harder to secure necessary regulatory approvals.
Santander Executive Chairman Ana Botín sought to calm shareholders on Wednesday,
insisting that it was key to “look to the medium term.” While acknowledging that
the current situation was “extraordinary,” she downplayed the clash, saying:
“trade continues and is very strong.”
“Spain and the U.S. have had an amazing relationship, forever, for centuries,”
Botín told Bloomberg TV, alluding to the Spanish crown’s financial support for
George Washington in the American War of Independence, the 250th anniversary of
which is being observed this year. “The long-term relationship is strong.”
YET ANOTHER TACO?
Of course, it’s entirely possible that Trump’s vow to cut ties with Spain will
never materialize. According to market lore, whenever the risk of self-inflicted
economic pain outweighs political rhetoric, “Trump always chickens out” — or
TACO .
None of the higher tariffs he threatened to impose on Sweden, Norway, Germany,
Finland, France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands for their participation
in military training exercises in Greenland has been implemented.
Neither has the 200 percent tariff on French wine and champagne that Trump swore
he’d impose on Paris after French President Macron declined to join the Board of
Peace scheme to rebuild Gaza. And Madrid is still waiting to hear about the
higher tariffs the U.S. president promised to use to punish Sánchez for his
refusal to commit 5 percent of Spain’s GDP to military spending.
Sánchez this week insisted that, no matter what Trump threatens, Spain will
continue to oppose the war in Iran. José Manuel Corrales, a professor of
economics and international relations at the European University in Madrid, said
the Spanish prime minister’s stance is savvy because the U.S. president tends to
back down when countries respond to Washington by remaining firm.
“It’s worked out for Canada and México, and obviously for China,” he said. “And,
politically, it’s definitely working out for Spain’s government, which is now
being hailed for standing up to Trump and firmly saying no to this war.”
Regardless of whether Washington cuts trade relations with Madrid, Spain’s
economy is already being affected by the instability caused by the U.S. attack
on Iran. Corrales said Spain’s booming economy — which grew by 2.8 percent in
2025, and is projected to expand by over 2 percent this year — could be
undermined by surging inflation if the war lasts long.
“The truth is that we may be facing a crisis with significant repercussions,” he
said. “This latest war is already going to have consequences for the American
economy, but the Trump administration is also going to have to pay for the
damage it’s wrought on the global economy sooner or later.”
The Bank of Russia is suing the European Union for keeping its state assets
frozen “for an indefinite period” to serve as collateral against a €90 billion
loan to Ukraine.
The lawsuit will test rare emergency powers that the European Commission used
last year to keep Russian state assets across the bloc, worth some €210 billion,
on ice through a qualified majority. The legal loophole nullified vetoes that
Kremlin-friendly countries in the EU, such as Hungary, would otherwise have had.
EU leaders agreed in mid-December to raise common debt without Hungary, Slovakia
and Czechia to finance Kyiv’s defense against Russian forces. Ukraine will only
have to pay back the loan once Moscow ends the conflict and pays war
reparations. If the Kremlin refuses, EU leaders reserve the right to tap the
cash value of the frozen assets to pay itself back.
In a statement Tuesday, the Bank of Russia blasted the EU’s “unlawful actions
against the Bank of Russia’s sovereign assets,” saying the regulation violates
“the basic and inalienable rights to access justice” and the “principle of
sovereign immunity of states and their central banks.”
The central bank also argued the Council of the EU committed “serious
violations” of its own procedures by adopting the measure by qualified majority
rather than unanimity.
The Commission plans to issue a statement in response to the lawsuit, which the
central bank filed at the EU’s General Court in Luxembourg.
Russia’s central bank filed a separate lawsuit in Moscow last year against
Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear, where the bulk of its assets lie
immobilized under EU sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
BRUSSELS — Ukraine’s cash-strapped government received a small reprieve in the
early hours of Friday after the International Monetary Fund approved a new $8.1
billion loan to the war-torn country.
The IMF will disburse some $1.5 billion from the loan straight away, as Kyiv’s
coffers are set to empty in April after years of fighting against Russian
invading forces.
“It is very important for us that in the fifth year of a full-scale war, against
the backdrop of systemic attacks on the energy sector, Ukraine has guaranteed
international financial support from partners and a resource for the stable
operation of the state,” Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko posted on
Facebook after the IMF’s announcement.
The international lender had initially demanded more assurances over Kyiv’s
financial stability before approving the loan — this came when a majority of EU
countries agreed late last year to raise €90 billion in joint debt to shore up
Ukraine against Russia.
But the IMF’s cash cushion is tiny. Kyiv’s budget shortfall is set to widen
beyond $50 billion this year, putting pressure on the EU to overcome a dispute
with Hungary that’s blocking crucial financial support.
The EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine would help plug the gap. But
Hungary is blocking the financing package amid accusations that Ukraine is
deliberately slow-walking repairs to the damaged 4,000-kilometer Druzhba
pipeline, which carries vital supplies of Russian oil to Hungary, on political
grounds.
Ukraine has dismissed the accusations. The European Commission has also
downplayed the risk of an immediate energy crunch in Hungary, which has 90 days’
worth of oil supplies it can use.
In the meantime, Brussels’ top brass is trying to solve the dispute without
playing into an anti-EU political campaign that Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor
Orbán, is pursuing ahead of a national election in April.
The Hungarian leader has also weaponized anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of the
election, with his political party, Fidesz, trailing the opposition, Tisza, in
the polls by a wide margin. A loss would see Orbán’s 16-year reign come to an
end.
GIVE AND TAKE
Some diplomats in Brussels had feared Orbán’s veto could hold up the IMF loan.
The world’s lender of last resort demanded greater assurances over Kyiv’s
financial health before issuing a loan, after four years of war have more than
doubled the country’s debt burden to 108.7 percent of economic output.
That reassurance initially arrived in mid-December, when 24 EU leaders agreed to
raise €90 billion in joint debt to help finance Ukraine’s defense against
Russia. Kyiv will only have to repay the money once Moscow ends the war and pays
war reparations — an unlikely scenario. If the Kremlin refuses, the EU could use
the cash value of frozen Russian state assets across the bloc to pay itself
back.
None of that matters if Orbán refuses to withdraw his veto. Recent
correspondence with European Council President António Costa, however, has
suggested Orbán will drop his veto if the EU assesses the damage to the Druzhba
pipeline.
The Hungarian leader could also relent if Brussels approves Budapest’s
application for a €16 billion defense loan, according to some diplomats. The
Commission’s lawyers are studying the EU treaties to see whether a legal
loophole could be used to nullify the Hungarian veto. That could take time —
something Kyiv doesn’t have.
“Ukraine and its people have weathered a long and devastating war for over four
years with remarkable resilience,” the IMF’s managing director, Kristalina
Georgieva, said in a statement. “Nevertheless, the war has taken a toll on
economic and social conditions, with slowing growth and the outlook remaining
subject to exceptionally high uncertainty.”
FRANKFURT — European Central Bank staffers believe they must toe the line or
face the consequences.
That is the message from a staff survey conducted by the ECB in November and
December, revealing that the majority have “no confidence” that they can voice
their views without inviting retaliation from above.
The findings threaten to blemish President Christine Lagarde’s legacy, raising
questions about the quality of debate culture within the central bank under her
leadership amid ongoing rumors that the Frenchwoman will end her eight-year term
early. The results also land at an awkward moment, as the ECB faces legal action
from its staff union over alleged efforts to curb free speech.
The survey boasted a 75 percent response rate and was shared with staff during a
Town Hall meeting on Thursday.
The results found that 34 percent of respondents disagreed that they “can freely
express” their views “without fear of negative consequences.” Another 24 percent
of staffers were unsure how to respond to the statement. Longer-serving staff
were more concerned about a possible backlash than newer hires.
Lagarde publicly professes diversity. Just this week, she hailed the variety of
voices from eurozone central bankers, saying that “diversity is an asset in
times of high uncertainty.” She has also famously blasted economists for
forming a “tribal clique” at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, insisting
broader perspectives would always lead to better outcomes.
That spirit is far from present at the ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt’s east
end, as far as the survey goes.
In an interview last year, the ECB union vice president, Carlos Bowles,
expressed concern that a “culture of fear” within the Bank will promote
self-censorship and groupthink. The ECB’s attempts to prevent the union from
airing these concerns in public prompted the legal action against the Bank.
The union expresses concern about the survey’s outcome. “When staff feel unsafe
to speak openly, it is not just an HR matter — it becomes a policy risk,” a
union spokesperson said.
The disconnect between the ECB’s public messaging and perceptions on the ground
may be at least partially attributed to the fact that less than a third of its
staff believes “the ECB is open in its communication with employees,” as
reflected in the survey.
An ECB spokesperson said that the bank is “working together with staff and staff
representatives to respond to the survey outcomes” and is “fostering a more open
and supportive workplace by encouraging honest dialogue, normalizing learning
from mistakes and reinforcing behaviors that promote safety and inclusion.”
BROKEN CAREER LADDER
While the vast majority of staff say they are proud of the ECB’s mission and
feel inspired by its work, fewer than one in three would recommend it as a
workplace.
Career progression is a key concern — a common challenge in public financial
institutions.
Four out of 10 staffers don’t think they have good opportunities for
professional development. That’s a bad look for the ECB’s career ladder. Worse
when you include the fact that an additional 20 percent of staffers are unsure
of how their career will progress within the central bank.
There are some bright spots in the survey, depending on who you ask. While
phrasing differences limit comparisons to previous surveys, there seems to be
some progress in fair treatment. Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents said
they feel the ECB has treated them fairly, whereas in past surveys, nearly
two-thirds expressed concerns over favoritism.
The ECB promises more progress. It is already translating survey results “into
concrete steps— supporting managers in having more meaningful development
conversations, creating more direct communication touchpoints with staff, and
engaging with long‑tenure colleagues to understand and address their concerns,”
the spokesperson said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Monday blamed “an unprovoked act of
hostility” from Ukraine to justify his decision to block the EU’s €90 billion
loan to Kyiv, according to a letter he sent to European Council President
António Costa.
Orbán backed the loan in December on the basis that EU leaders exempted Czechia,
Hungary and Slovakia from paying down the EU debt. That changed on Friday after
Budapest and Bratislava accused Kyiv of slow walking repairs to the damaged
4,000-kilometer Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary and
Slovakia.
“Hungary did not oppose the decision based on the understanding that the loan
will not have an impact on the financial obligations” of Prague, Budapest and
Bratislava, Orbán wrote in a short letter, dated Feb. 23 and seen by POLITICO.
“Recent developments have forced me to reconsider my position.”
Costa’s office was not immediately available for comment.
Ukraine’s war chest will run out in April without fresh funds, putting Kyiv at a
disadvantage against Russian forces and ongoing U.S.-led peace talks with the
Kremlin.
A Russian drone attack in late January damaged the Druzhba pipeline, which
transports Russian oil that is vital to Hungary’s and Slovakia’s energy needs.
The European Commission last week said that both countries have 90 days’ worth
of oil supplies to avoid an immediate energy crunch.
Orbán said Kyiv has refused to restore crude oil supplies via the pipeline since
mid-February on political grounds, an accusation Ukraine has dismissed. Hungary
and Slovakia are exempt from EU sanctions on Russian product. Russian oil
accounted for for 92 percent of Hungary’s energy imports last year, according to
the Center for the Study of Democracy, a European policy institute.
The Hungarian leader has weaponized anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of April’s
national election, with his political party, Fidesz, trailing the opposition,
Tisza, in the polls by a wide margin. He has also used the pipeline issue to
justify blocking the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, which requires
unanimous support to pass. Brussels had planned to unveil the package on the
fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which is on Tuesday.
Hungary can block the €90 billion loan because one of the three bills
underpinning the financial aid also requires EU unanimity to expand the cash
buffer of the EU’s long-term budget to issue the loan.
EU ambassadors will discuss the sanctions package on Monday during the Foreign
Affairs Council. Both initiatives remain stuck until the Druzhba pipeline crisis
is resolved.
“As long as this remains the case, Hungary will not support the amendment of the
[multiannual financial framework] regulation necessary for the use of the EU
budget headroom for the loan facility,” Orbán wrote.
FROM PLATINUM LEVEL TO THE CHILDREN’S TABLE: HOW A MULTISPEED EUROPE MIGHT WORK
An EU in which different countries get different benefits appears closer than
ever.
By PAUL DALLISON
Illustration by Natália Delgado/POLITICO
Paul Dallison writes Declassified, a weekly satirical column.
A Hare was making fun of the Tortoise one day for being so slow.
“Do you ever get anywhere?” he asked with a mocking laugh.
“Yes,” replied the Tortoise, “and I get there sooner than you think. I’ll run
you a race and prove it.”
“The Tortoise and the Hare” by Aesop
It would seem that an increasing number of EU countries are fed up with being
asked, “Do you ever get anywhere?” and, unlike the Tortoise in the fable, not
actually winning.
While the EU has traditionally sought to advance in lockstep (or at least
pretend that’s the case), the idea of moving ahead with a multispeed Europe is
gaining traction. Leaders meeting in the Belgian countryside for an informal
retreat this month cautiously backed the idea that some reforms would have
to be carried out by a smaller group of countries.
“Often we move forward with the speed of the slowest,” European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told journalists. “The enhanced
cooperation model avoids that.” In EU jargon, “enhanced cooperation” means
“screw you and your objections, we’re doing this anyway.”
As if to prove the point, a pre-summit breakfast meeting saw 19 of the 27
leaders turn up for wentelteefje while Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Ireland’s
Micheál Martin complained they hadn’t been invited. Martin said “I don’t get the
necessity” of a private club convening separately — but he’d better get used to
it.
A multispeed Europe is an idea that has been long in the making — pushed by
France in particular — and has been given impetus by the trigger-happy nature of
U.S. President Donald Trump, who isn’t afraid to launch a military offensive
before he’s polished off his first McMuffin of the morning.
So we now have the E6 — Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and
Poland — meeting to discuss financial issues. Much to Keir Starmer’s chagrin,
the U.K. is not in the group of six even though the E6 is also an area of East
London, home to Central Park (not that one) and Flip Out! (“London E6’s Best
Indoor Trampoline & Adventure Park!“).
The EU loves a number-based grouping, of course. There’s the Frugal Four
(Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden), a group of superheroes on a
mission to get us to reuse teabags, and their sworn enemy the Visegrad Four
(Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary).
But whereas talk on how Europe moved ahead at different speeds was dubbed
“two-speed,” more levels will likely be needed, especially if new countries end
up joining.
So, taking inspiration from crowdfunding sites where the more you give, the more
stuff you get in return, here are some membership options that the EU could
offer to countries.
Platinum level
What you get…
* Ability to fast-track everything from whatever we’re calling the capital
markets union this week to an EU army.
* Full voting rights.
* Ability to choose your own commissioner without backlash from Brussels
(whether you want to follow the traditional path of “old white dude” or if
you’re feeling reckless and fancy going for the “problematic pick” (complete
with dodgy past that may or may not involve racist/sexist/homophobic
statements and/or social media posts) or even the increasingly popular
“clearly unsuited to the role” choice.
* 10 years of Platinum Club membership guaranteed, with no option to leave
(this was added at the request of Emmanuel Macron, as apparently something is
happening in France in 2027 that might have a teensy-weensy impact on the
EU).
* 24/7 use of the helipad on the roof of the Berlaymont.
* Personal chef to cater to your every culinary whim at EU summits.
Business level
What you get…
* Ability to join the fast-track group upon request (up to three times before
you’re automatically upgraded to Platinum).
* Full voting rights.
* Selection of two options for European commissioner (one male, one female),
but you can ignore the Commission’s preferred choice and just pick the dull
guy.
* 20 Blue Book trainees to gather outside the Council HQ when you arrive for EU
summits and to cheer, to try to fool people into thinking someone important
has turned up.
* Traditional EU summit food (but you get to have one meal per year that
features your national cuisine).
Basic level
What you get…
* A seat at the Council table (Platinum members reserve the right to ask you to
leave if something particularly sensitive comes up).
* The promise of voting rights (one day).
* One European commissioner to represent all Basic member countries. Which
country gets the pick will depend on which national capital pledges the most
money to finish the Schuman roundabout.
* Exki sandwiches at EU summits.
Hungary
What you get…
* Nothing.
BRUSSELS ― Hungary has thrown the EU’s planned €90 billion loan to Ukraine into
crisis after threatening to block the deal until the flow of Russian gas resumes
through the Druzhba pipeline.
The Hungarian government issued the warning on Friday evening, as Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán tries to weaponize anti-Ukraine sentiment ahead of a key
election where he risks losing power after more than 15 years.
“Ukraine is blackmailing Hungary by halting oil transit in coordination with
Brussels and the Hungarian opposition to create supply disruptions in Hungary
and push fuel prices higher before the elections,” Hungarian Foreign
Minister Péter Szijjártó wrote on X. “We will not give in to this blackmail.”
Hungary’s threat to veto the loan is a major setback for Ukraine, whose coffers
will begin running low on cash from April. Kyiv will struggle to sustain its war
effort without fresh funds, leaving it at a disadvantage in ongoing peace talks
with Russia.
The first signs of trouble began earlier in the day on Friday. Hungary’s
ambassador to the EU demanded that its national assembly get the standard eight
weeks to scrutinize EU legislation during a meeting of envoys in Brussels, three
EU diplomats told POLITICO.
EU ambassadors were set to give their final approval for the loan ahead of
Tuesday, which marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In a fresh confrontation with Kyiv, Orbán is accusing the war-torn country of
halting Russian gas to Hungary for political reasons. Ukraine rejects these
claims, arguing that Russian strikes have damaged the energy infrastructure.
The European Commission convened an emergency meeting earlier this week to solve
the dispute over the Druzhba pipeline after Hungary and Slovakia retaliated by
halting diesel supplies to Ukraine.
EU leaders, including Orbán, agreed to the €90 billion loan in December
following months of fraught negotiations. In a major concession, the EU exempted
Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia ― who oppose giving further aid to Kyiv ― from
repaying the borrowing costs of the loan.
Budapest on Friday refused to clear one bill that requires unanimity to expand
the cash buffer, known as the headroom, of the EU’s long-term budget to issue
the loan. EU ambassadors backed the other two bills underpinning the Ukraine
loan that only needed a simple majority for approval.
As Russia’s firmest ally in the EU, Orbán has frequently threatened to block the
EU’s financial support to Ukraine.
UPDATED: This story has been updated to reflect Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter
Szijjártó’s comments online.