BRUSSELS — When the colonial governments of Belgium and Portugal ordered the construction of a railway connecting oil- and mineral-rich regions in the African interior to the Atlantic, their primary objective was to plunder resources such as rubber, ivory and minerals for export to Western countries.  Today, that same stretch of railway infrastructure, snaking through Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola to the port of Lobito, is being modernized and extended with U.S. and EU money to facilitate the transport of sought-after minerals like cobalt and copper. Just this month, Jozef Síkela, the EU commissioner for international partnerships, signed a €116 million investment package for the corridor, often hailed as a model initiative under Global Gateway, the bloc’s infrastructure development program. This time around, however, Brussels says it’s committed to resetting its historically tainted relationship with the region — a message European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will stress when they address African and EU leaders at a Nov. 24-25 summit in Luanda, Angola, which is this year celebrating 50 years of independence from Portuguese rule.  “Global Gateway is about mutual benefits,” von der Leyen said in a keynote speech in October. The program should “focus even more on key value chains,” including the metals and minerals needed in everything from smartphones to wind turbines and defense applications.  The aim, she said, is to “build up resilient value chains together. With local infrastructure, but also local jobs, local skills and local industries.”  Yet Brussels is scrambling to enter a region only to find that China got there first. Batches of copper sheets are stored in a warehouse and wait to be loaded on trucks in Zambia. | Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images African countries are already the primary suppliers of minerals to Beijing, which has secured access to their resource wealth — unhindered by any historical baggage of colonial exploitation — and is now the world’s dominant processor. Europe’s emphasis on retaining economic value in host countries — rather than merely extracting resources for export — answers calls by African leaders for a more equitable and sustainable approach to developing their countries’ natural resources.  “The EU has been quite vocal, since the beginning of the raw minerals diplomacy two years ago, saying: We want to be the ethical partner,” said Martina Matarazzo, international and EU advocacy coordinator at Resource Matters, a Belgian NGO focusing on resource extraction, which also has an office in Kinshasa, DRC.  But “there is a big gap” between what’s being said and what’s being done, she added, pointing out that it is still unclear how the Lobito Corridor can be a “win-win” project, rather than just facilitating the shipping of minerals abroad.  Brussels finds itself under growing pressure to diversify its supply chains of lithium, rare earths and other raw materials away from China — which has demonstrated time and again it is ready to weaponize its market dominance. To that end, it is drafting a new plan, due on Dec. 3, to accelerate the bloc’s diversification efforts.   In African countries, however, Brussels is still struggling to establish itself as an attractive, ethical alternative to Beijing, which has long secured vast access to the continent’s resources through large-scale investments in mining, processing and infrastructure.  To enter the minerals space, the EU needs to walk the talk in close cooperation with African leaders — doing so may be its only chance to secure resources while moving away from its extractivist past, POLITICO has found in conversations with researchers, policymakers and civil society.  RESOURCE RUSH Appetite for Africa’s vast natural riches first drew colonizers to the continent — and laid “the foundation for post-independence resource dependency and external interference,” according to the Africa Policy Research Institute. Now, the continent’s deposits of vital minerals have turned it into a strategic player, with Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema last year setting a goal of tripling copper output by the end of the decade, for instance. Beijing has often used Belt and Road, its international development initiative, to secure mining rights in exchange for infrastructure projects. Washington, which lags far behind Beijing, is also stepping up its game, with investments into Africa quietly overtaking China’s. President Donald Trump has extended the U.S. security umbrella to war-torn areas in exchange for access to resources, for example brokering a — shaky — peace deal between Rwanda and the DRC. EU companies are “really trying to catch up,” said Christian Géraud Neema Byamungu, an expert on China-Africa relations and the Francophone Africa editor of the China Global South Project. “They left Africa when there was a sense that Africa is not really a place to do business.” DOING THINGS DIFFERENTLY Against this backdrop, the key question for the EU is: What can it offer to set itself apart from other partners? On paper, the answer is clear: a responsible approach to resource extraction that prioritizes creating local economic value, along with high environmental and social standards.  “We want to focus on the sustainable development of value chains and how to work with our African partners to support their rise of the value chains,” said an EU official ahead of the Luanda summit, where minerals will be a key topic. “This is not about extraction only,” they added. But so far, that still has to translate into a concrete impact on the ground. “We are not at the point where we can see how really the EU is trying to change things on the ground in terms of value addition in DRC,” said Emmanuel Umpula Nkumba, executive director of NGO Afrewatch. “I am not naïve, they are coming to make money, not to help us,” he added.  Not only has offtake from the Lobito Corridor been slow, but the project has also come under fire for prioritizing Western interests over African development and agency, and for potentially leading to the destruction of local forests, community displacement and an overall lack of benefits for local populations.  The 2024 Lobito Corridor Trans-Africa Summit | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images The EU, however, views the corridor as “a symbol of the partnership between the African and European continent and an example of our shared investment agenda,” according to a Commission spokesperson, who called it “a lifeline towards sustainable development and shared prosperity.” Finally, while “value addition” has become a catchphrase, it’s unclear whether EU and African leaders see eye to eye on what the term means.  African industry representatives and officials often point to building a domestic supply chain up to the final product. EU officials, by contrast, tend to envision refining minerals in the country of origin and then exporting them, according to a report published by the European Council on Foreign Relations. A SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS CASE? The second component of the EU’s approach — strong sustainability and human rights safeguards — faces major trouble, not least in the name of making the EU more competitive.  In Brussels, proposed rules that would require companies to police their supply chains for environmental harm and human rights violations are dying a slow death, as conservative politicians channel complaints from businesses that they can’t bear the cost of complying. An investigation by the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre of the 13 mining, refining and recycling projects outside the bloc labeled “strategic” by the EU executive — including four in Africa — identified “an inconsistent approach to key human rights policies.”  However, under pressure from African leaders, stricter safeguards are slowly becoming more important in the sector: “high [environmental, social and governance] standards” are a core component of the African Union’s mining strategy published in 2024.  The Chinese, too, are adapting quickly.  “China’s also getting good with standards,” said Sarah Logan, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations who co-authored the assessment of African and European interpretations of value addition. “If they are made to, Chinese mining companies are very capable of adhering to ESG standards.”  Therefore, besides massively scaling up investment, the EU and European companies will need to turn their promise of being a reliable and ethical partner into reality — sooner rather than later. “The only way to distinguish ourselves from the Chinese is to guarantee these benefits for communities,” Spanish Green European lawmaker Ana Miranda Paz told a panel discussion on the Lobito Corridor in Brussels. This story has been updated with comment from the European Commission.

LONDON — You might say they have nothing left to lose. Britain’s once-dominant Conservatives are still reeling from their worst-ever general election defeat. Polls put them third, behind populist insurgent Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and near-level with the leftist Green Party. Yet facing annihilation, Britain’s oldest political party has finally rediscovered attack mode. Kemi Badenoch — a year in as leader — is landing more consistent blows on Keir Starmer in their weekly clashes, after months of griping from her MPs. Badenoch’s job has been made easier by the Labour government’s plunging fortunes; changes in Tory personnel; a system that hands resources to the “official” opposition; and a secretive attack department that combines nerdy research with fighting like hell. Some Conservatives even seem to be — whisper it — enjoying themselves. “We’re not fighting dirty, just critiquing what the government is doing,” argued one person who has worked closely with Badenoch. But they added: “We’re starting to actually do the fun bit of opposition, which is whacking a failing government over the head.” Since August, the party has helped force Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner from office over a housing tax scandal, and scrutinized the personal affairs of Chancellor Rachel Reeves and (now sacked) Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson. Badenoch has also applied pressure to Starmer over Labour’s tax policy as she prepares to respond to this Wednesday’s budget. POLITICO spoke to over a dozen senior Tory aides and politicians, all of whom were granted anonymity to talk about internal strategy. Most of them doubted these successes would do anything to move the polls — or save Badenoch from a leadership challenge if local elections in May go as badly as expected. But the person above said: “It’s good for morale, right? We’re still deep in opposition, we’ve still got loads of problems to fix, but we’re in a much better place than we were a few months ago.” OUT WITH THE ‘YES MEN’ Prime minister’s questions (PMQs) guarantee Badenoch a weekly moment in the spotlight. Several people who spoke to POLITICO suggested changes in her top team have helped. Tory MP Alan Mak departed Badenoch’s tight-knit PMQs prep team when he left the shadow cabinet in a July reshuffle. Her chief of staff, Lee Rowley, and Political Secretary, James Roberts, both left the wider leader of the opposition (LOTO) team, while Badenoch’s Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) Julia Lopez — who liaises with backbenchers — was promoted to Mak’s old role. Into the Wednesday prep sessions came Badenoch’s new PPS, John Glen, “policy renewal” chief Neil O’Brien (who shares some of her pugilism on social media), and the ex-MP and TV presenter Rob Butler, who has helped her work on her presentation skills. Kemi Badenoch is landing more consistent blows on Keir Starmer in their weekly clashes, after months of griping from her MPs. | Lucy North/Getty Images Stephen Gilbert, who spent five years as political secretary to David Cameron in No. 10, also joined the wider LOTO team. Mid-ranking aide Stephen Alton was promoted to head Badenoch’s “political office.” “The clearout of the prep team and frankly bringing in better people is at the core of why she has markedly improved her PMQs performances,” argued one Tory official. Allies suggest Glen has improved communication with backbenchers. On Mak’s involvement, the official was ruder: “Who the fuck thought that was a good idea?” A second Tory official argued: “They’ve got rid of the yes men.” Others argue the opposite — that there is continuity, and loyalists abound. Badenoch aide Henry Newman, promoted to chief of staff after Rowley’s departure, still attends PMQs prep alongside Lopez, her spokesperson Dylan Sharpe, and uber-loyalist shadow cabinet minister Alex Burghart. There are still misses. When Rayner admitted she had underpaid housing tax moments before the first PMQs of September — a clear open goal for the opposition — Badenoch asked only a brief question before pivoting to economics. But her team is showing signs of greater agility. The following week, Badenoch pressed Starmer hard over his appointment of Mandelson. The PM stood by the ambassador, yet sacked him the next day over his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. When Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge stood in for Badenoch earlier this month, he quickly pivoted to ask about an accidental prisoner release — which wasn’t yet public — and succeeded in tying Deputy PM David Lammy in knots. A person with knowledge of that day’s preparation said six “beautifully crafted economy questions” were ready for Cartlidge, but “we collectively found out a bit in advance [about the prisoner] — like, 10 or 15 minutes — and we all felt he should go on it, and if he wasn’t getting a serious answer he would just need to keep going. It was a horrible decision to have to make 10 minutes beforehand, but ultimately it was the right one.” Other people offer to help. Shadow Cabinet ministers join PMQs prep on their brief. And while Badenoch’s relationship with former Cabinet colleague (now Spectator editor) Michael Gove is far cooler than it once was, he still speaks to Grimstone and Newman, who used to work for him. One person said Gove has even suggested jokes, claiming one about the government’s plan being “so thin it could have been sponsored by Ozempic” came from him. (Another person denied that Gove provides Badenoch with jokes.) ‘WE’RE GETTING KEMI TO BE MORE HERSELF’ Allies of Badenoch insist much of the improvement is down to the leader herself. “Kemi has basically cracked a way of getting at the prime minister and not letting him off the hook,” said a second person who has worked closely with Badenoch. “Her confidence has been a big change.” Badenoch’s initial style as leader had puzzled — and in some cases infuriated — some on the right who knew her as one of Westminster’s most headline-grabbing MPs. She began with a focus on “rebuilding trust,” serious reform, and policy renewal that would take years. Nigel Farage’s radical right-wing party overtook the Tories in opinion polls last Christmas and has seized the agenda since. | Oli Scarff/Getty Images Then Reform came along. Farage’s radical right-wing party overtook the Tories in opinion polls last Christmas and has seized the agenda since. “Reform became the most interesting, hottest thing in politics,” said a third person who has worked closely with Badenoch. “So the timeline got sped up, and we needed to make sure we were part of the conversation.” The scale of internal frustration at Badenoch was painted in a brutal July profile in the New Statesman. Her former performance coach Graham Davies, who parted ways with her acrimoniously after her 2024 campaign, told the author she “doesn’t do the process, doesn’t do the practice and doesn’t like it.” But Badenoch is still here, and a leadership challenge appears to be parked — at least until May. Over the summer, Badenoch decided she wanted to cut through more with the public and show the kind of politician she wanted to be, said a person with knowledge of her thinking. She even noted how public awareness of Farage soared after he took part in the reality TV show “I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out Of Here!”. (Badenoch will not, however, be eating any animal testicles.) She also realized that the “rebuttals are as important as the questions” at PMQs, said a fourth person who has worked closely with Badenoch: “While the initial initial view was that this needs to be very prosecutorial, it’s much more of a theater event.” Allies worked to help her bring out her “sassy” side, said the second person quoted above. “Her voice has got a lot stronger,” they added. “We’re getting Kemi to be more herself.” WELCOME TO THE ‘ATTACK CELL’ The other side of the story is in Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) — where it all began with two parliamentary questions. Known by few people beyond the Westminster bubble, the obscure “PQ” system lets MPs send technical queries to ministers. It is faster and more effective than Britain’s exemption-filled freedom of information regime. One PQ asked if Starmer paid full council tax on his grace-and-favor flat; he did. But when the other asked if Rayner did the same, ministers replied with a non-answer. This pricked up the ears of Sheridan Westlake, a veteran operator at CCHQ who spent 14 years in government — and is now turning his knowledge of its diversionary tactics against Labour. Government officials are said to sigh in frustration when another Westlake PQ comes in. Despite being signed off by different MPs three months apart, the two questions had both been crafted by Westlake and his small CCHQ team. The discrepancy triggered months of Tory and journalists’ digging into Rayner’s housing arrangements that — eventually — led to her resignation in September over a separate issue (she had failed to pay enough stamp duty on her new home.) Into the Wednesday prep sessions came Badenoch’s new PPS, John Glen, “policy renewal” chief Neil O’Brien, and the ex-MP and TV presenter Rob Butler. | Wiktor Szymanowicz/Getty Images The Rayner chase was “great fun,” said a third Tory official. They said CCHQ formed a five-man “attack cell” to co-ordinate lines with Badenoch’s office a few streets away. Much of it was based on work from the Conservative Research Department (CRD), a secretive team who keep their names hidden. The five men in the so-called cell were Westlake, CRD Director Marcus Natale, a member of his CRD, CCHQ Executive Political Director Josh Grimstone, who oversees the story “grid,” and Head of Media Caspar Michie. Rayner was not the only hit job. Three Tory officials said the CRD was involved in a story about Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ housing arrangements, though they would not be drawn on exactly how. (Reeves admitted breaking rental licensing rules for her family home, but was backed by Starmer.) CCHQ has been gathering attack material on Starmer’s likely successors, given the expectation of a Labour leadership challenge next year. It works closely with right-wing newspapers such as the Mail on Sunday, Telegraph and Sun to keep up momentum by furnishing attack research and quotes. At the same time, officials try to pump stories into the TV bloodstream by helping Badenoch work up lines to say on camera. “You force the BBC to pay attention,” the third official said. There are parallel operations too. The Guido Fawkes blog, whose publisher is former CRD director and serving Tory peer Ross Kempsell, keeps up communication with CCHQ and has always run a drumbeat of critical journalism on Labour — though a fifth Tory official said there had been some twitchiness inside CCHQ at the tone of Guido’s coverage of Reform UK, too. NOT THERE YET The Tory fightback has also involved plenty of luck. Issues the Conservatives found out about — such as Rayner’s tax arrangements, and a trust on her former family home — were neither the full picture nor proof of wrongdoing. Newspaper journalists did much of the digging. And while one person said the CRD now has about 10 members, numbers were slashed after the election. The first Tory official quoted above said the unit is “still not firing on all cylinders. They’re doing some good work, but probably the redundancies and scaling back post-election cut too deeply into what should be a key function.” CCHQ staff who survived the brutal post-election redundancies insist the operation is becoming more organized and morale has improved — but that is from a low base. New Chief Executive Mark McInnes has “oiled up the machine,” argued the third Tory official: “The sackings were brutal at the time, but we couldn’t just keep operating how CCHQ always had.” OUT OF PRACTICE Life back in opposition has taken some getting used to. The second person who has worked closely with Badenoch said: “When we were in opposition last time, it was a very different world. There was a handful of TV stations and newspapers, and now we’re in the modern age. We’ve had to bed in and learn what this crazy new environment is.” The Tories now get barely any media coverage for their initiatives unless they are genuinely head-turning. Some shadow ministers even complained internally about this at first, said one person with knowledge of the conversations. Kemi Badenoch decided she wanted to cut through more with the public and show the kind of politician she wanted to be. | Gary Roberts/Getty Images But now, argued a fourth Tory official, “the penny has dropped … unless voters hear from us, they’ll think we no longer exist.” There is no denying that much of the Tory boost has come from a Labour collapse. Badenoch simply has “way more material to attack,” argued a fifth person who has worked closely with her. “It’s an abundance of riches every week now.” The first person who has worked with her added: “[Labour] are uncannily reminiscent of our last days in government — beset by scandal, one thing goes wrong after another, no sense of direction, everyone is miserable. You can actually see it physically in the Commons … little knots of Labour MPs all whispering to each other.” With public opinion moving against Labour, Tory MPs worry less about looking like hypocrites. Many of the crises that they highlight — prisons, for example — are in public services that arguably collapsed under their tenure. The fifth person who worked with Badenoch said: “At the beginning there was a hesitancy to attack Labour because we were carrying the baggage of 14 years of mistakes.” As time wears on, collective memory might start to fade. IS ANYONE LISTENING? Even if it all goes to plan, a big challenge remains: outgunning Farage. As the “official” opposition, the Conservatives get the most money for researchers, and opportunities to hold the government to account through PQs, PMQs, committee hearings and debates in the Commons. Yet it is Reform that cost the Tories many of their seats in 2024 and now has a soaraway poll lead. Farage’s ascendant party has announced policies outside parliament, where (thanks to having only five MPs) it is barely a presence. Farage sits on the same side of the Commons chamber as Badenoch; this system is not designed to hold him to account. The fourth Tory official above voiced a fear that the public will see two establishment parties scrapping in parliament while Reform floods the zone on TV and social media. In short, the Tories are honing their game, but there’s a new game in town. Then there is May. Scotland, Wales and English metropolitan councils, including in London, will go to the polls. The elections are the closest thing Britain has to “mid-terms,” and while many areas are already Labour-controlled, Badenoch’s rivals will be watching closely. One former minister and current MP said: “The expectation is that May election results will be very bad … Tory MPs want to see an uptick in the poll performance or talk of a leadership challenge will persist. Her [party] conference speech was good and bought her more time, but clearly everyone realizes we can’t stay on 17 percent for the next three years.” The first Tory official quoted above was even blunter: “It’s ultimately froth. None of it is moving the polling needle, and that’s what we live or die by.”

As trilogue discussions on the Critical Medicines Act (CMA) approach, its potential effects on medicine supply, patient access and Europe’s competitiveness are increasingly in focus. From an industry standpoint, several considerations are central to understanding how this act can best achieve its objectives and support a robust pharmaceutical ecosystem in Europe.  Keeping the CMA focused where it matters  Much of the debate around the CMA has centered on its promises to strengthen the availability and security of supply of critical medicines in the EU while improving accessibility to other medicines. These are goals that our industry fully supports.   The European Commission’s proposal is designed to focus on critical medicines, with a vulnerability assessment foreseen to identify which products are truly at risk of disruption and tailor solutions accordingly. Alongside critical medicines, the proposal also introduces a new definition of ‘medicinal products of common interest’. Under current wording, this would include any medicine unavailable in at least three member states, regardless of the underlying reason.   Such a broad definition risks turning a targeted framework for resilience into an all-encompassing mechanism covering almost every medicine on the market, blurring the distinction between supply and access challenges. These are fundamentally different issues that require fundamentally different policy tools.   > Applying the CMA’s tools across the entire medicines market would dilute > priorities, stretch healthcare budgets and create administrative burdens for > industry without delivering real benefits for patients.   The act will be far more effective if it remains focused on where the risks are greatest — in other words, by limiting the ‘medicinal products of common interest’ definition to cases of demonstrable market failure and directing measures toward genuinely critical medicines with a proven risk of supply disruption.  Fixing supply and access hurdles needs more than joint procurement   The CMA places joint procurement at the center of its strategy to address both supply and access challenges. While this approach can contribute to improving availability in certain circumstances, joint procurement will only deliver lasting results if it is designed to address the underlying causes of access delays and shortages, which vary across geographies and products.  For medicines where the main challenge lies in fragile supply chains, joint procurement can play a role, particularly when it enhances predictability and economic viability for suppliers. Experience from the Covid-19 pandemic has shown that coordinated purchasing can be effective in targeted situations. For medicines facing access delays, joint procurement could help improve availability in countries where genuine market failures exist. However, the value of joint procurement for countries where products are already available, or where access barriers can be better addressed by improving national pricing and reimbursement systems, is very questionable.  To ensure that joint procurement does not hinder access, several safeguards are essential. Tenders should reward quality and promote innovation, recognizing the value that innovative medicines bring to patients and society. Price confidentiality must be protected to prevent unintended spillovers, such as reference pricing effects. Once joint procurement agreements are concluded, to ensure commercial and supply predictability there should be no additional national renegotiations or expenditure control measures. Finally, allowing national procurement processes to run in parallel will be key to avoid delays and maintain flexibility.  Beyond these design safeguards, real progress will depend on tackling the broader root causes of shortages and access delays. For supply fragility, this means, among other actions, reducing strategic dependencies where necessary, improving transparency across supply chains and avoiding rigid national stockpiling rules. For access delays, progress will require addressing national pricing and reimbursement challenges, and a greater willingness from governments to reward the value that innovative medicines deliver.  Protectionism won’t make Europe stronger  Few elements of the CMA debate have attracted as much attention as the idea of prioritizing EU-made medicines. The rationale is straightforward: producing more within Europe is expected to reduce reliance on third countries, reinforce strategic autonomy and, ultimately, improve supply security. While this narrative is understandable, taking it at face value risks overlooking the realities of how medicines are manufactured and supplied today.  Europe already has one of the world’s strongest pharmaceutical manufacturing footprints and, unlike some other pharma manufacturing regions, Europe exports 71 percent of its pharmaceutical production. This output depends on global supply networks for active substances, raw materials and specialized technologies. Introducing local-content requirements or preferential treatment for EU-made products would disrupt those networks, fragment supply chains and drive up costs, with limited evidence that such measures would enhance resilience. Local-content requirements could also affect Europe’s trade relationships and weaken, rather than strengthen, its industrial base in the long term, while distorting competition within the single market and undermining the competitiveness of both European and international companies operating in Europe. The likely outcome would be less diversity and greater concentration in supply chains: the opposite of what a resilient system requires.  If procurement criteria referencing resilience or strategic autonomy are used, they should be proportionate and tied to clearly demonstrated dependencies or supply risks. Protectionist approaches, however well-intentioned, cannot substitute for the broader policy environment needed to keep Europe attractive for investment in research and development and manufacturing. A competitive European ecosystem depends first and foremost on predictable intellectual-property rules, timely regulatory processes, access to capital, and a strong scientific and technical skills base.  The EU institutions still have time to steer the CMA on course  The CMA offers a real chance to get things right. The European Parliament’s proposal for more consistent contingency stock rules could help if it stays focused on medicines genuinely at risk of shortage. The act can also make reporting more efficient by using existing systems rather than creating new ones. Policymakers should also be aware that wider regulatory initiatives directly affect Europe’s ability to manufacture and supply medicines. A more coherent policy framework will be essential to strengthen resilience.  Europe’s goal must be to build an environment where pharmaceutical innovation and production can thrive. Europe’s choice is clear: supply security cannot be achieved by weakening the industry that ensures it. The CMA will only work if it tackles the right problems with the right tools and keeps competitiveness at its core.   > Europe’s goal must be to build an environment where pharmaceutical innovation > and production can thrive. Our industry remains ready to engage with EU and national policymakers to make that happen. A high-level forum on the CMA involving all stakeholders could help guide the act’s implementation in a way that improves supply security and speeds up access for patients, while reinforcing Europe’s position as a global player in life sciences.  Disclaimer POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT * The sponsor is European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA) * The political advertisement is linked to the Critical Medicines Act More information here.

THE ALTAR BOYS WHO GREW UP TOGETHER — AND TRIED TO KEEP EUROPE’S CENTER FROM CRUMBING The lives of Daniel Caspary and René Repasi often overlapped as they grew up. In the European Parliament, they became political rivals — but were also united in common cause. By MAX GRIERA and NETTE NÖSTLINGER in Stutensee, Germany Photo-illustrations by Klawe Rzeczy for POLITICO Sometimes it’s the least extraordinary places that throw up the most startling of coincidences.   In this case, a tiny German town — nothing special: a stone’s throw from the Rhine river, a small 18th century castle, the kind of suburban sleepiness where boys like Daniel Caspary and René Repasi while away their teenage years cycling to the city to party or the nearest lake to cool off — has produced rival leading European politicians who have been key to assuring EU political stability in a time of unprecedented fragmentation.  The way their lives have intertwined is astonishing. Caspary, now 49, and Repasi, three years his junior, went to the same school. There, they both organized a cabaret of political satire. They honed their skills on the student newspaper. They were both altar boys in the same church. And they both scored their first political victories on their town’s council. Almost since birth, their lives have taken staggeringly parallel paths. Now, they’re on different sides in the European Parliament.  Advertisement Caspary is leader in the Parliament of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), the largest faction in the European People’s Party. Repasi is the equivalent for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the third-largest national delegation in the Socialists and Democrats group. The EPP and the S&D are the two biggest Parliament groups and for decades have between them held a grip on EU power. Despite the rivalry between their umbrella political families, with antagonism only worsening since the 2024 EU elections, the two men have cemented their reputation as the backchannels between the two sides, attempting to safeguard what in EU circles is known as the “grand coalition” between center right and center left. That’s significant because the Parliament is fractured like never before. Aping a trend seen across western democracies, the middle ground is crumbling. Politicians like Caspary and Repasi represent the old ways of doing things ― political opponents, yes, but ready to put aside their differences so their two sides can work together to face down the extremes. Increasingly, that’s no longer a given in the European Parliament. That was evident when the EPP, earlier this month, abandoned its traditional centrist allies and pressed ahead with the support of far-right groups to approve cuts to green rules.  Daniel Caspary, the charismatic old-school conservative deeply rooted in his community, in his class photo from the year he graduated. | Stutensee’s Thomas Mann-Gymnasium 1993-1994 annuary René Repasi, the cosmopolitan and slick social democrat with an impressive track record in academia, in his class photo from the year before he graduated. | Stutensee’s Thomas Mann-Gymnasium 1993-1994 annuary A good relationship between the pair has been particularly useful because the leaders of the two pan-European groups rarely conceal their mutual dislike and are increasingly finding it tough to reach compromise positions on new laws, such as on green rules for business or on controlling migration.  “Of course we have many differences politically, but it’s good if you can talk,” Caspary told POLITICO. “We’ve known each other for ages … We know that we can trust each other.”   “He was always a sort of leading figure,” Repasi said, remembering their shared childhoods in Stutensee. I “looked up to him.”  Advertisement While their paths overlapped, they could barely be more different personally and politically. Caspary is the charismatic old-school conservative deeply rooted in his community, pressing the flesh at local events and using the language of the person in the street. He still lives in the area. Repasi, by contrast, is the cosmopolitan ― the slick social democrat with an impressive track record in academia, a man of scholarly rhetoric who moved away from Germany completely. “What Repasi lacks,” said Mathias Zurawski, a journalist who attended the same school, “Caspary offers. And vice versa.”   ALTAR BOYS Stutensee’s discreet Catholic St. Josef Church is in the town’s backstreets. The garden surrounding it boasts abundant fruit trees. Posters advertise meetings of the scout group.  It’s humble in comparison to the more spectacular Protestant church on the main street. It’s here where the Caspary and Repasi families worshipped. And it’s where the two boys built trust in each other.  “We met for the first time in the youth groups of the Catholic church,” Caspary said. “We talked about this. I think this stands for some values. We always try to be honest.”  Those early religious experiences play a big role in Caspary’s life today, said Ansgar Mayr, a regional CDU politician who has known him since he made his first steps in politics.    Stutensee’s St Josef Catholic Church, where Caspary and Repasi used to serve as altar boys. | Max Griera/POLITICO “He was greatly influenced by his time in the Catholic Church and also his time with the Scouts, who are Catholic Scouts,” Mayr said. “His circle of friends, outside the political bubble, comes very much from the Catholic Church and parish youth groups.”   The pair served as altar boys, assisting the priest at Mass and kneeling as part of the liturgy. On Christmas, they sang carols around town. The Social Democrat Repasi’s Catholicism has lapsed somewhat, but despite being “one of those guys who go to church only at Christmas,” he said Christian values serve as guidance for his daily life and political career. CHAOS AND REVOLUTION The pair’s paths crossed again as teenagers in high school. The Thomas-Mann Gymnasium is just a stone’s throw from the church. It’s seen better days and is due to be renovated next year. For now, it still looks as it did in the 1990s. It’s easy to imagine Caspary and Repasi here. The lockers they’d have used line the corridors and the classrooms are plain, aside from the vintage orange cubical washbasins. In those years, they both dived into extracurricular activities. Caspary founded an annual political cabaret show. At 18, he handed the organizing baton to Repasi, who suddenly found himself facing the daunting task, he said, of raising money to cover costs.  “If the whole thing was a success, [that] was due to the fact that he [Caspary] handed it over, and we did the transition period together,” said Repasi.  Advertisement The boys’ school yearbooks portray two kids destined for greater things. Alongside a photo of Caspary humorously dressed as a medic, his classmates described him as “source of the most creative interjections (‘yes, but…’) that elicit a wide range of reactions from teachers, ranging from amusement to annoyance.” It’s “hard to believe,” the entry said, “that this chaotic person will one day take on a leading role as a conservative politician.”  Repasi’s friends saw him as a revolutionary. His portrait shows him wearing a Soviet hat. “Discussions with him often turn into fights,” his schoolmates said. “But no one else is as good at arguing objectively.”  The boys also bumped into each other on the school’s newspaper, Pepperoni. Caspary was already acting as a sporadic school reporter, when Repasi — a couple of years later — became editor in chief. The boys weren’t scared of hitting the establishment where it hurt. Pepperoni signified “something that stings”  so was “a means to express criticism,” said former teacher Sabine Graf, who taught French and German at the school at the time.  Yearbook of Daniel Caspary, featuring a photo of Thomas Mann blended with Albert Einstein’s famous tongue picture, symbolizing science. | 50 years anniversary book, Thomas Mann Gymnasium 1974-2024 Covers of the Pepperoni school magazine, which both Caspary and Repasi contributed to. | 50 years anniversary book, Thomas Mann Gymnasium 1974-2024 Yearbook of René Repasi, featuring a pig with a black flag, symbolizing social class revolution and anarchism. | 50 years anniversary book, Thomas Mann Gymnasium 1974-2024 Those shared experiences form the basis of the two men’s relationship in the Parliament today. “You can always say you can trust me,” Repasi said. “But actually you can only do so if you have experienced it. And I experienced it in my past that I can trust him and that I can rely on him.”  VOTERS’ CRITICISM These days, Stutensee isn’t immune to the political winds that blow across the whole of Europe. With populism, of right and left, on the rise, centrist politicians who broadly prefer to focus on points of agreement rather than division aren’t in vogue. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second in Germany’s national election earlier this year ― the best showing for a far-right party since the Nazi rise to power. The AfD isn’t represented on the city council here, but locals acknowledge there’s a desire to kick the establishment. An establishment symbolized by men like Caspary and Repasi. Despite their deep roots in the town, many reject the idea they’re local heroes. “They show up at some celebratory events around town with their family a couple of times a year, but you don’t hear from them afterwards,” said a 37-year-old bartender at the smoke-filled bar in town, who gives his name only as Dominik. A handful of people at the bar hear his remarks and nod.  Dominik also went to Thomas-Mann Gymnasium. He knew Caspary’s brother. But he insisted neither politician can be trusted. They’re not “looking out for the interests of the people,” he said.  But early on in their careers, the two politicians made some tangible changes for locals. When they were both on their school’s student council,  Caspary campaigned for a night bus line between Stutensee and the city of Karlsruhe, 10km away. In some ways, he succeeded, advancing a cause that led to the construction of a durable tram connection built years later.   “During this campaign, I realized that if you start engaging with the town representatives, like the mayor, like the city council members, then you can change things,” Caspary said.      Advertisement Repasi’s political awakening came when the regional government tried to cut by a year the time that students attended high school to align practices with other European countries. The school’s leadership wanted to participate in the pilot, despite most students being opposed. “I found it total nonsense,” Repasi said. “I was mobilizing the school kids to come to this meeting of the municipal council, and I think for the first time ever it was totally full.”     The students cheered loudly when their arguments, compiled by Repasi, were presented to the mayor. The council ultimately rejected the plan. If the bus line was Caspary’s first political victory, this was Repasi’s.  MR. STUTENSEE VS. MR. EUROPE Eventually, they drifted apart.   These days, Caspary’s image is one of a politician still deeply rooted to his home, who found his way to Brussels by chance. People close to him describe him as a family man, raising his five children just a few kilometers from where he grew up. Repasi, in contrast, is seen as a professor-turned-politician, someone with a strong passion for European affairs who deliberately chose to build his life abroad.   Classroom of Thomas Mann Gymnasium, intact since Caspary and Repasi studied in it. | Max Griera/POLITICO For Repasi, who was raised by a German mother and Hungarian father, “cosmopolitanism runs through his life,” said Graf, the schoolteacher. She and another former teacher both recalled his in-depth study on the Yugoslav Wars. He became a professor of European law in Geneva and Rotterdam, where he raised two sons with his Polish wife.    Caspary was elected to the European Parliament almost by accident in 2004, at 28, because of the CDU’s exceptionally strong showing.   “My plan was to become the chairperson of the group in my city council,” he said.  Advertisement For Repasi, on the other hand, ending up working in an EU institution was his dream, according to colleagues. He even dabbled with joining Caspary in the CDU. But in his village, the party didn’t feel very welcoming, he said. “I’m Western-looking enough not to have any discrimination experiences like Turkish people, but my strange family name was strange enough in my village,” he said.   Repasi’s road to the Parliament was bumpier than Caspary’s. He ran in three elections but never made it, ultimately joining when another SPD member gave up her mandate in 2022. TOGETHER IN BRUSSELS ― AND THEN APART AGAIN Reuniting in the European Parliament was almost like a homecoming for Repasi. Caspary presented him with a basket of delicacies from the region around Stutensee. Repasi’s rise since then has been rapid. He became the head of the SPD faction in the S&D only two years after his arrival. And in that time, they’ve put their friendship to good use. Cordial catchups soon turned into high-level political negotiations. They were suddenly in charge of leading the biggest German parties in the Parliament and had to overcome the increasing estrangement between their group leaders, Manfred Weber, the head of the EPP group, and Iratxe García, the S&D chair. Caspary was elected to the European Parliament almost by accident in 2004 because of the CDU’s exceptionally strong showing. | Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images For Repasi, ending up working in an EU institution was his dream. | Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images That’s why they have been in constant dialogue, “to bring together political lines,” Caspary said. “We do speak about conflicts that are arising,” Repasi said. “Whether we can totally solve them is a different question.”  Other MEPs say the good relationship between the German conservatives and Socialists has proved critical. “The stability of the mandate” ― European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s loose coalition of centrist parties ― “is at stake, and what can help cement a stronger cooperation is the link between the CDU and SPD,” said Javi López, a Spanish S&D lawmaker and Parliament vice-president.     But nothing lasts forever and the double act is about to split once more. In October, the German government nominated Caspary to be its representative at the European Court of Auditors, in Luxembourg. Advertisement On Thursday he is expected to be confirmed by the Parliament. That will leave a gap, according to his colleagues. “Over the years, he has been a steady and unifying presence, bringing together a team of highly diverse personalities,” said Niclas Herbst, chair of the Parliament budgetary control committee, and one of the names floated to succeed Caspary. “He is, in the best sense, a true generalist — someone who can swiftly and thoroughly grasp complex political issues … I know there is great anticipation in Luxembourg for his arrival.”  When Caspary departs, Repasi will have to find himself another opposite number to build up a trusting relationship. But it remains to be seen whether the fraying ties between center right and center left can retain at least one strong thread. While that won’t be impossible, it certainly won’t come as easy as a relationship forged in little Stutensee. Out of experiences in church, student politics and the school newspaper, the foundations held up well.

Businesses from Wall Street to main street are struggling to comply with President Donald Trump’s byzantine tariff regime, driving up costs and counteracting, for some, the benefits of the corporate tax cuts Republicans passed earlier this year. Trump has ripped up the U.S. tariff code over the past year, replacing a decades-old system that imposed the same tariffs on imports from all but a few countries with a vastly more complicated system of many different tariff rates depending on the origin of imported goods. To give an example, an industrial product that faced a mostly uniform 5 percent tariff rate in the past could now be taxed at 15 percent if it comes from the EU or Japan, 20 percent from Norway and many African countries, 24 to 25 percent from countries in Southeast Asia and upwards of 50 percent from India, Brazil or China. “This has been an exhausting year, I’d say, for most CEOs in the country,” said Gary Shapiro, CEO and vice chair of the Consumer Technology Association, an industry group whose 1,300 member companies include major brands like Amazon, Walmart and AMD, as well as many small businesses and startups. “The level of executive time that’s been put in this has been enormous. So instead of focusing on innovation, they’re focusing on how they deal with the tariffs.” Upping the pressure, the Justice Department has announced that it intends to make the prosecution of customs fraud one of its top priorities. The proliferation of trade regulations and threat of intensified enforcement has driven many companies to beef up their staff and spend what could add up to tens of millions of dollars to ensure they are not running afoul of Trump’s requirements. The time and expense involved, combined with the tens of billions of dollars in higher tariffs that companies are paying each month to import goods, amount to a massive burden that is weighing down industries traditionally reliant on imported products. And it’s denting, for some, the impact of the hundreds of billions of dollars of tax cuts that companies will receive over the next decade via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act championed by the White House. “Every CEO survey says this is their biggest issue,” said Shapiro. A recent survey by KPMG, a professional services firm, found 89 percent of CEOs said they expect tariffs to significantly impact their business’ performance and operations over the next three years, with 86 percent saying they expect to respond by increasing prices for their goods and services as needed. Maytee Pereira, managing director for customs and international trade at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, another professional services firm, has seen a similar trend. “Many of our clients have been spending easily 30 to 60 percent of their time having tariff conversations across the organization,” Pereira said. That’s forced CEOs to get involved in import-sourcing decisions to an unprecedented degree and intensified competition for personnel trained in customs matters. “There’s a real dearth of trade professionals,” Pereira said. “There isn’t a day that I don’t speak to a client who has lost people from their trade teams, because there is this renewed need for individuals with those resources, with those skill sets.” But the impact goes far beyond a strain on personnel into reducing the amount of money that companies are willing to spend on purchasing new capital equipment or making other investments to boost their long-term growth. “People are saying they can’t put money into R&D,” said one industry official, who was granted anonymity because of the risk of antagonizing the Trump administration. “They can’t put money into siting new factories in the United States. They don’t have the certainty they need to make decisions.” A White House spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. However, the administration has previously defended tariffs as key to boosting domestic manufacturing, along with their overall economic agenda of tax cuts and reduced regulation. They’ve also touted commitments from companies and other countries for massive new investments in the U.S. in order to avoid tariffs, although they’ve acknowledged it will take time for the benefits to reach workers and consumers. “Look, I would have loved to be able to snap my fingers, have these facilities going. It takes time,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview this week on Fox News. “I think 2026 is going to be a blockbuster year.” For some companies, however, any benefit they’ve received from Trump’s push to lower taxes and reduce regulations has been substantially eroded by the new burden of complying with his complicated tariff system, said a second industry official, who was also granted anonymity for the same reason. “It is incredibly complex,” that second industry official said. “And it keeps changing, too.” Matthew Aleshire, director of the Milken Institute’s Geo-Economics Initiative, said he did not know of any studies yet that estimate the overall cost, both in time and money, for American businesses to comply with Trump’s new trade regulations. But it appears substantial. “I think for some firms and investors, it may be on par with the challenges experienced in the early days of Covid. For others, maybe a little less so. And for others, it may be even more complex. But it’s absolutely eating up or taking a lot of time and bandwidth,” Aleshire said. The nonpartisan think tank’s new report, “Unintended Consequences: Trade and Supply Chain Leaders Respond to Recent Turmoil,” is the first in a new series exploring how companies are navigating the evolving trade landscape, he said. One of the main findings is that it has become very difficult for companies to make decisions, “given the high degree of uncertainty” around tariff policy, Aleshire said. Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs — imposed on most countries under a 1977 emergency powers act that is now being challenged in court — start at a baseline level of 10 percent that applies to roughly 100 trading partners. He’s set higher rates, ranging from 15 to 41 percent, on nearly 100 others, including the 27-member European Union. Those duties stack on top of the longstanding U.S. “most-favored nation” tariffs. Two notable exceptions are the EU and Japan, which received special treatment in their deals with Trump. Companies also could get hit with a 40 percent penalty tariff if the Trump administration determines an item from a high-tariffed country has been illegally shipped through a third country — or assembled there — to obtain a lower tariff rate. However, businesses are still waiting for more details on how that so-called transshipment provision, which the Trump administration outlined in a summer executive order, will work. The president also has hit China, Canada and Mexico with a separate set of tariffs under the 1977 emergency law to pressure those countries to do more to stop shipments of fentanyl and precursor chemicals from entering the United States. Imports from Canada and Mexico are exempt from the fentanyl duties, however, if they comply with the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a trade pact Trump brokered in his first term. That has spared most goods the U.S. imports from its North American neighbors, but also has forced many more companies to spend time filling out paperwork to document their compliance. Trump’s increasingly baroque tariff regime also includes the “national security” duties he has imposed on steel, aluminum, autos, auto parts, copper, lumber, furniture and heavy trucks under a separate trade law. But the administration has provided a partial exemption for the 25 percent tariffs he has imposed on autos and auto parts, and has struck deals with the EU, Japan and South Korea reducing the tariff on their autos to 15 percent. In contrast, Trump has taken a hard line against exemptions from his 50 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, and recently expanded the duties to cover more than 400 “derivative” products, such as chemicals, plastics and furniture, that contain some amount of steel and aluminum or are shipped in steel and aluminum containers. And the administration is not stopping there, putting out a request in September for further items it can add to the steel and aluminum tariffs. “This is requiring companies that do not even produce steel and aluminum products to keep track of and report what might be in the products that they’re importing, and it’s just gotten incredibly complicated,” one of the industry officials granted anonymity said. That’s because companies need to precisely document the amount of steel or aluminum used in a product to qualify for a tariff rate below 50 percent. “Any wrong step, like any incorrect information, or even delay in providing the information, risks the 50 percent tariff value on the entire product, not just on the metal. So the consequence is really high if you don’t get it right,” the industry official said. The administration has also signaled plans to similarly expand tariffs for other products, such as copper. And the still unknown outcomes of ongoing trade investigations that could lead to additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, critical minerals, commercial aircraft, polysilicon, unmanned aircraft systems, wind turbines, medical products and robotics and industrial machinery continue to make it difficult for many companies to plan for the future. Small business owners say they feel particularly overwhelmed trying to keep up with all the various tariff rules and rates. “We are no longer investing into product innovation, we’re not investing into new hires, we’re not investing into growth. We’re just spending our money trying to stay afloat through this,” said Cassie Abel, founder and CEO of Wild Rye, an Idaho company which sells outdoor clothing for women, during a virtual press conference with a coalition of other small business owners critical of the tariffs. Company employees have also “spent hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of hours counter-sourcing product, pausing production, restarting production, rushing production, running price analysis, cost analysis, shipping analysis,” Abel said. “I spent zero minutes on tariffs before this administration.” In one sign of the duress small businesses are facing, they have led the charge in the Supreme Court case challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose both the reciprocal and the fentanyl-related tariffs. Crutchfield Corp., a family-owned electronics retailer based in Charlottesville, Virginia, filed a “friend of the court” brief supporting the litigants in the case, in which the owners detailed its difficulties in coping with Trump’s erratic tariff actions. “If tariffs can be imposed, increased, decreased, suspended or altered … through the changing whim of a single person, then Crutchfield cannot plan for the short term, let alone the long run,” the company wrote in its brief, asking “the Court to quell the chaos.”

In the secretive cloisters of the Vatican, where bishops and cardinals plot and scheme, Martin Selmayr was seen as a natural (for a Protestant, at least). But the man who once ran the European Commission with an iron grip devoted his best work to charting his course back to the Berlaymont. However, his latest scheme for ending his effective exile in Rome, where he is EU ambassador to the Holy See, and returning to Brussels seems to have come apart. The job that looked set to be his — deputy secretary-general of the European External Action Service (EEAS), a new role strong-arming EU leaders into agreeing on foreign policy — seemed ideal. But it was clumsy politicking that proved to be the downfall of the veteran German civil servant. According to three officials, granted anonymity to talk about the backroom dealings, `Selmayr looks set to stay in Rome for the foreseeable future after opposition from the top of the European Commission sank his bid, particularly because he has so far declined to take an alternative role in the Belgian capital. The scheming came to a head at a meeting of the College of Commissioners on Oct. 21, when a conclave of Ursula von der Leyen allies proposed that Selmayr be given the role of special envoy for religious freedoms, a job that would have brought him back to Brussels but in a much less high-profile role than the one at the EEAS. The plan was drawn up because of Selmayr’s very public maneuvering, which spooked some national capitals, according to those in the room. “This was a way to say OK, if he wants to come back to Brussels, here’s how you do it,” said one of the EU officials of the offer for the religious freedom envoy role. However, at a College of Commissioners meeting earlier this week, Selmayr was not put forward for the role of religious freedom envoy either. “This was the only job open to him,” said the official. “If he doesn’t want that, he stays in Rome.” Selmayr has declined to comment publicly throughout the process. DOMINUS VOBISCUM During his time as chief of staff to former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Selmayr gained a reputation for ruthless efficiency. He was also branded the “Monster of the Berlaymont” for his hard-nosed tactics. Many imagined Selmayr’s 2019 departure, designed to allay fears about German over-representation and give new President von der Leyen a clean slate to govern, would be the end of his time in Brussels. However, Selmayr’s irrepressible energy and intelligence made him stand out even from Rome, where he made a splash entertaining dignitaries, cardinals and other Vatican potentates from his lavish HQ abutting the ancient Baths of Caracalla. During his time as chief of staff to former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Selmayr gained a reputation for ruthless efficiency. | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin/EPA “That someone who’s been a political animal in Brussels can fit in here and earn respect in the Vatican, that speaks to his qualities,” said one emmissary who got to know Selmayr well and was granted anonymity to speak freely. “I’ve seen him leading the room at EU ambassadors’ meetings; he was charming, suave, and very well-informed.” Also tasked with representing the EU in talks with the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, diplomats said Selmayr provided an immediate boost to the bloc’s standing, turning his Brussels-honed skills to the issues at hand. Clerics and seasoned attachés alike were awed by how much this establishment creature knew about their cloistered Catholic world, with one pointing out that he appeared to enjoy the Vatican brief more than he was supposed to — given he was officially supposed to prioritize the UN part of the job. A diplomatic insider, meanwhile, said Selmayr seemed overqualified for the ambassadorship. “He is quite up for scheming, which is fun, but scheming about multilateral agriculture issues is hardly high geopolitics. You can tell he wants to be more forceful and make stuff happen quickly, but gets that isn’t how it works here … he does the job, it just isn’t a very taxing job.” SEDE VACANTE The sight of one of the EU’s most accomplished backroom operators languishing in the Vatican presented a clear opportunity for the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, and her allies. For months, the former Estonian prime minister has been locked in a power struggle with national capitals over flagship policies such as sanctioning Israel and relations with U.S. President Donald Trump. Many imagined Selmayr’s 2019 departure, designed to give new President von der Leyen a clean slate to govern, would be the end of his time in Brussels. | Ronald Wittek/EPA Kallas has also been in an increasingly bitter standoff with von der Leyen and her own all-powerful German head of cabinet, Selmayr’s successor, Björn Seibert. “Kaja wants her own Björn,” said a third diplomat, “and that’s Martin.” But there were concerns that unleashing Selmayr’s scheming in Brussels could worsen the already tense political landscape. “The only similarities between Björn and Martin are that they’re both very smart and they’re both from Germany,” said the senior EU official, arguing that Seibert strives for loyalty and quiet competence while Selmayr is a political animal with few such scruples. “People think he’d be a kind of monster under the bed for von der Leyen — really, he’d be the monster under the bed for Kallas.” CARDINALES ELECTORES A Selmayr return to the EEAS would have been controversial because of his reputation, but the pieces were never really in place, according to Günther Oettinger, who served as Germany’s European commissioner from 2010 until 2019, including the period when Selmayr was at the peak of his powers as secretary-general of the European Commission. “The preparatory work was not convincing,” Oettinger said. “For such a senior post in the EEAS, you need the full backing of several member states: because he’s German, the full backing of the German government, in addition to France, Poland and so on.” A Selmayr return to the EEAS would have been controversial because of his reputation, but the pieces were never really in place, according to Günther Oettinger. | Stephanie Lecocq/EPA “To have the idea is the first step, but to not procure the full backing of member states — I’d say this was a mistake of Madam Kallas,” said Oettinger. Diplomats and officials who spoke to POLITICO said key countries were not asked about a Selmayr return or kept informed on the process. There was also division in Germany over a potential reappearance of Selmayr. Germany’s EU Affairs Minister Gunther Krichbaum told POLITICO in late October that he would “very much welcome” Selmayr returning to the fray in a senior role, sparking an immediate rebuke from his own government. HABEMUS PLAN-AM The high-handed scheming on Selmayr’s future has now alienated even the faith community that he had worked hard to build bridges with. “It’s a bit upsetting that this position [special envoy for religious freedoms] is being politicized, it’s not what Church has asked for,” said Manuel Barrios, who lobbies on behalf of Europe’s bishops’ conferences in Brussels. “We’ve been back and forth some times — a lot of parties have asked for this already, so it’s a bit upsetting that this is being used as a political fight. It seems von der Leyen is not very interested — neither her nor her head of cabinet.” Kaja Kallas has also been in an increasingly bitter standoff with von der Leyen and her own all-powerful German head of cabinet, Selmayr’s successor, Björn Seibert. | Olivier Hoslet/EPA The Commission is also under fire from civil society groups over fears that jobs are being stitched up behind closed doors by its gray cardinals. In a letter to von der Leyen, Humanists International warned that the role of the envoy is too important to play politics with. Officials, they say, should put forward “a transparent and accountable selection process, which should, at a minimum, include public lists of candidates and criteria as well as the meaningful consultation of Parliament and civil society.” For now, the German apparatchik is pushing on with his plans undeterred. “Mr. Selmayr successfully completed the application process at the EEAS last week,” said a person with knowledge of his application. “Whether he will be able to take up this position in the near future or will continue to serve as EU Ambassador to the United Nations in Rome and to the Holy See must now be decided jointly by the EU High Representative and the President of the Commission ‘in the interest of the service.'” But, as Selmayr’s best-laid plans come up against those of the EU’s leadership, all he and his allies can do is double down on their plotting and hope they can do it better than his rivals. “He’s eminently qualified,” said a fourth diplomat. “If he doesn’t get the job, it’s down to politics.” Gabriel Gavin reported from Paris. Ben Munster reported from Brussels. Hannah Roberts reported from Rome. Hans von der Burchard reported from Berlin.

Lithuania’s Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has dismissed Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė after a massive bust-up over the Baltic country’s defense budget. The public rift saw Ruginienė last week criticizing fellow Social Democrat Šakalienė for lobbying on the budget behind the government’s back, as Vilnius considers how best to counter potential Russian aggression. Lithuania is one of the three Baltic nations neighboring Russia. It’s increasingly preparing for a potential attack from Moscow by boosting military expenditure and strengthening its borders to fend off an invasion. Šakalienė’s defense ministry had indicated that next year’s military budget would be lower than planned and reportedly sought to pressure the government to increase it during an unofficial meeting with influencers and journalists. “The events of recent weeks were really just the final straw,” the prime minister told reporters on Wednesday after meeting with President Gitanas Nausėda. “While this decision [to boot Šakalienė] came sooner than expected, it may have been unavoidable,” she said. In a scathing rebuke, Ruginienė cited dishonesty, “a complete lack of willingness to cooperate,” poor team management and “various small details” as reasons for dismissing Šakalienė. “It is unfortunate that I have to take this decision and it is certainly a challenging moment for me as Prime Minister,” Ruginienė said. Šakalienė said she’d resigned rather than being pushed out. “I kept my promise. The resignation letter was sent this morning at 10 a.m.” she said in a Facebook post, in which she acknowledged that working with her “was not for the faint-hearted.” “Just a month ago, I had hoped that we could work with the prime minister, but unfortunately, we cannot, as we have fundamentally different views on how to strengthen national defense,” she added. The government has proposed spending 5.38 percent of GDP on defense in 2026, but it still needs to be approved by the parliament. Šakalienė shared photos of budget slides presented at the government meeting on Oct. 1, allocating 4.87 percent of GDP to defense — and an email from the finance ministry on the evening of Oct. 14, the day of the unofficial meeting, which increased the defense budget to 5.38 percent of GDP. Asked whether the initial defense budget was indeed smaller, which triggered Šakalienė’s controversial lobbying session, Ruginienė said it was “strange to interpret draft versions.” Dovilė Šakalienė said she’d resigned rather than being pushed out. | Thomas Traasdahl/EPA “It doesn’t matter when you season the soup — what matters is the final result. The same applies to the budget: what counts is the final outcome, and that’s what’s important,” she said. This is the second ministerial exit since Ruginienė took office in August. Culture Minister Ignotas Adomavičius resigned after just one week in October, following public backlash and protests from Lithuania’s cultural community over the allocation of the related ministry to the populist party Dawn of Nemunas. The Social Democrats have since taken over the culture ministry and are currently searching for a new minister. Potential candidates for defense minister have already been discussed with the president, though Ruginienė has not released any names. Until a new minister is appointed, Interior Minister Vladislavas Kondratovičius will temporarily lead one of the Baltic country’s most strategic ministries. “It is especially important to select the right defense minister, since the defense budget is an absolute priority both for us and for the prime minister,” said Nausėda’s chief adviser on national security, Deividas Matulionis, calling the budget for defense “historical.” “This is not just an internal security issue; it is a matter of our international image. The future deployment of a German brigade and the presence of American troops depend on it. Everything is at stake,” he told reporters Wednesday. Šakalienė, in her Facebook post, said that the defense budget cannot be below 5.5 percent of GDP. “This year, the Ministry of Defense managed to secure 5.38 percent (after the well-known Oct. 14 meeting), but funding gaps remain, and some planned acquisitions will have to be canceled,” she said.

Friedrich Merz’s stimulus can’t arrive quickly enough. The number of people out of work in Germany rose by more than expected again in September, as years of economic weakness took their toll on the labor market. Data released by the Federal Labor Office showed unemployment, adjusted for seasonal effects, rose by a worse-than-expected 14,000 to a new 14-year high of 2.98 million. “The labor market continues to lack the necessary impetus for a stronger recovery,” said labor office head Andrea Nahles. Indeed, the local headlines are being conspicuously dominated by national champions shedding staff. Earlier this week, Lufthansa said it will cut 4,000 administrative jobs by 2030. The news came only days after engineering giant Robert Bosch said it would cut an additional 13,000 positions by 2030, after announcing 5,550 layoffs in November last year. Automaker Volkswagen and Germany’s second-largest lender, Commerzbank, announced significant job cuts earlier this year. Such trends are having knock-on effects further down the supply chain: Insolvencies nationwide were up over 12 percent from a year earlier in the first half of 2025. Last week it was the turn of Kiekert, an auto supplier that pioneered central locking sytems, to declare itself bankrupt, putting another 700 German jobs at risk. Europe’s largest economy has been in recession for two consecutive years and will eke out minimal growth this year, according to a report from think tanks that advise the government. Many fear the country risks missing out on the turnaround that Chancellor Friedrich Merz promised to deliver when he took office earlier this year. Companies have become increasingly skeptical that the government will deliver necessary reforms. Only last month, the unadjusted number of unemployed in Germany passed 3 million for the first time in a decade. It dipped back below that level in September, as is usual at this time of year. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained stable at 6.3 percent of the workforce. While analysts say that unemployment may continue to tick up, they argue that changing demographics and ongoing skills shortages should prevent any massive surge similar to the one in the early 2000s that triggered radical labor market reforms under then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. The jobs numbers wasn’t the only worrying data out of Germany on Tuesday. Retail sales volumes in August fell 0.5 percent, suggesting that consumers are getting increasingly cautious about spending. On the brighter side, recent declines in world energy prices are leaving more in consumers’ pockets, and Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Claus Vistesen pointed out that planned cuts to energy-related taxes will give them a further boost from January.

LIVERPOOL, England — Keir Starmer’s new chief whip has promised to bring the job out of the “18th century” to win back the trust of restive Labour MPs.  In a rare interview, Jonathan Reynolds told POLITICO he wanted to approach the role differently than some of his predecessors, making more public appearances — usually banned for chief whips — and using a “carrot” not a stick approach to reunite the party.  Renyolds, who Starmer moved from the jet-setting role of Business and Trade Secretary earlier this month, is now responsible for discipline among the PM’s band of 401 MPs — including to push through controversial reforms to the welfare state.  The role of chief whip has long been associated with the subterfuge, low cunning and dark arts of British politics. It was former Conservative Chief Whip Gavin Williamson who infamously kept a black tarantula nicknamed Cronus in his parliamentary office.  In an interview at the POLITICO Pub, however, Reynolds said “there is no little black book” and he would not be acquiring a sinister pet.  “I do think fundamentally, you treat people well as a starting point. Only a strange type of personality reacts badly to that,” he said.  “There’s a chance maybe at times to think about, ‘How can we do this differently?’”  Reynolds said there is “a need for more people to have insight into how things are being made,” and that while the Labour government has made many right calls, “have we told a story which is the sum of those parts and what links them together? I think there’s more to do on that side. I think colleagues want a lot of that to sort of be consistent and improved, frankly, in the second year going forward.”  He added: “I don’t think you necessarily have to do a job like it was in the 18th century, even though we kind of like that in British politics.  “In a job like this, you’re moving from running your own bit of the show to being in the center of a team of people. I spend a lot of time with the prime minister, obviously having now No. 9 Downing Street next door.”  He added: “I think if you treat people well and explain the choices, they understand us.”  Many ministers were privately furious at being moved in Starmer’s reshuffle, and Reynolds’ new job shifts him from a high-profile role as Britain’s chief trade envoy to a backroom fixer.  Jonathan Reynolds insisted Starmer had as much fight in him as he did during the 2024 general election. | Leon Neal/Getty Images Asked if he was “gutted” at the surprise move, Reynolds emphasized his love of working with businesses, but said, “look, it’s politics, right?”  He added that Starmer had “said he needed someone very close to him who also the PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party] would recognize and respond to in the role of chief whip. And, you know, the prime minister brings you up asking to do a job. You’ve got to do that.”  Reynolds insisted Starmer had as much fight in him as he did during the 2024 general election — despite a slump in the polls since — and it would “go to the next level.”  He also said he would “robustly” reject complaints from MPs about members of his whips’ office who are related to figures in No. 10, such as Imogen Walker — whose husband is Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.  MPs have privately complained that, as a result, they can no longer trust the whips’ office to keep them safe from No. 10. Reynolds, however, said: “I think it should be okay to ask people to be treated on their own merits and their own skills.   “Every single one of those people in the whips’ office has an incredible political career already behind them.”  Reynolds, whose wife Claire has held senior positions in No. 10 and Labour, added: “People are complaining that you might be married to someone, but like my wife’s a political professional herself, you know, and I’ve had some experience of that. I think we should all be able to say, ‘Can we not be judged our own merits and skills?’   “And I would absolutely ask anyone to challenge the credentials of any of my whips, because they’re all an incredible team of people recognized for their abilities and brought into a whips’ office to do a job which is essential to delivering on the government’s agenda.”  Reynolds — whose son is autistic and receives both PIP and Universal Credit benefits — said that the government’s botched welfare reforms were “not done in a way that took people with us. That’s why we had to have the changes, and those were important decisions that were necessary for the parliamentary party going forward.”  He said: “I thought there wasn’t sufficient recognition of perhaps my family’s situation, which is, I want to protect the most vulnerable people in this country, but I need public support for the system to do that, and that public support will not be there if we aren’t making sure that we’re running that in a good way.”  Asked how he had persuaded No. 10 to let him give an interview, Reynolds joked: “Well, I just asked the chief whip. I decided to give myself permission, I can’t be reporting to anyone, can I?”